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2016 Draft QB thread


Beerball

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I saw Hogan play a ton of games over the last four years and I can't make up my mind about him. He's smart,, has a big, durable body and is surprisingly mobile. Has sort of a funny throwing motion that makes it look like he's pushing the ball. Not the strongest arm, but he gets the job done. I don't think he's a future franchise QB, but could be a 10-year pro in the mold of say Ryan Fitzpatrick, Frank Reich or Matt Hasselback. Not a bad guy to draft if you are looking to groom a back-up QB who can win some games when your starter goes down.

 

yes but I think we need a backup who will eventually be the guy. TT is a running QB and don't believe he will become the Elite QB we need to win the Super Bowl.

 

So I wouldn't bother with true backup type of guys.

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yes but I think we need a backup who will eventually be the guy. TT is a running QB and don't believe he will become the Elite QB we need to win the Super Bowl.

 

So I wouldn't bother with true backup type of guys.

 

I don't think any of us are saying if someone who you think can be elite is there at one of their first 2 or 3 picks they shouldn't pull the trigger because they are "waiting for Hogan" but I don't at the moment see a guy this year who is worth reaching for with a high pick so then you start looking at guys you can take as developmental picks further down who could come in and maybe be a solid #2 or even end up as competition for Tyrod. They are the circumstances in which some of us are advocating Hogan. I'm more than happy if they have already found a guy who represents value in one of the first 2 or 3 rounds who they think could be elite.

 

EDIT: Also you don't need an elite QB to win the Superbowl. You need a franchise QB.... can Tyrod make it into that category? Maybe not but maybe so. I think they should take a QB this year regardless whether it is a guy they have really high hopes for in the first couple of rounds or a Hogan like safe developmental pick in the mid rounds.

Edited by GunnerBill
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yes but I think we need a backup who will eventually be the guy. TT is a running QB and don't believe he will become the Elite QB we need to win the Super Bowl.

 

So I wouldn't bother with true backup type of guys.

That's a valid point, which is why I would also love to see the Bills pull the trigger on someone like Cardale Jones--a raw prospect but with huge upside down the road.

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Sweet Christ no.

 

Hackenbarf?

When discussing QBs I don't see this name brought up in conversations: Jacoby Brissett. Is he eligible for next years draft?

 

 

NFL.com did a team by team analysis of draft needs and possible selections. Brissett was listed as one of the QBs to be considered.

Maybe I missed it but Kelly can return to Ole Miss. They should be looking early. Not in a spot they were in when drafted Manuel 3 rounds before they should've, but if a guy is available in round 1 they think can turn the franchise around they need to pull the trigger.

 

Based on Kelly's past, I think he should return to Ole Miss for another year, which means he probably won't.

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The Browns have been so horrible at first-round picks lately (Taylor, Richardson, Weeden, Mingo, Gilbert, Manziel) that I hate to sentence Jared Goff or Paxton Lynch to a life on the Lake, but draw straws, gentlemen. Short one goes to the Browns. Tennessee has the first pick and could get a package of picks to move down with any number of QB-needy teams (San Francisco at seven, Chicago at 11, Philadelphia at 13, St. Louis at 15).



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Even worse, if the Bills are passing on competent QBs in the draft because they are relying on independent scouting services in their drafting decisions.

 

You're really not getting it. There is widespread consensus among teams and independent sources regarding the projected draft position of most players. If a team picks a player ahead of projection, that doesn't mean the projection was bad.

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The Browns have been so horrible at first-round picks lately (Taylor, Richardson, Weeden, Mingo, Gilbert, Manziel) that I hate to sentence Jared Goff or Paxton Lynch to a life on the Lake, but draw straws, gentlemen. Short one goes to the Browns. Tennessee has the first pick and could get a package of picks to move down with any number of QB-needy teams (San Francisco at seven, Chicago at 11, Philadelphia at 13, St. Louis at 15).

 

If Chicago is considered a QB needy team trading up for Goff then the Bills are at least that.

Edited by Section242
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You're really not getting it. There is widespread consensus among teams and independent sources regarding the projected draft position of most players. If a team picks a player ahead of projection, that doesn't mean the projection was bad.

It means the projection was wrong. When an independent source says to pass on Russell Wilson because he will be there the next round, so you pick TJ Graham then the projection was bad.

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It means the projection was wrong. When an independent source says to pass on Russell Wilson because he will be there the next round, so you pick TJ Graham then the projection was bad.

 

Thinking the projection was bad is purely retrospective thinking and therefore useless.

 

Picking Graham instead of Wilson was a bad decision, not a bad projection.

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When you have a solid YOUNG starting QB, you don't discuss drafting QB. You talk about finding a journeyman backup. The only folks who weren't impressed with Tyrod this year are Bills fans. We have our QB, gentlemen. We need a backup and that won't come in the draft. We need RT, Safety, LB, and D-line (and maybe WR depending on what happens) far more. We can't waste a draft pick on ANOTHER experiment at QB. TT is our starting QB, like it or not. And he's too young to be drafting his backup.

Hey! There's no room here for intelligent discourse. Get outta here with that crap.

(BTW, couldn't agree more!)

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A few more write-ups I finished up last night...

 

In each case, I picked the video of the player’s game that came against the toughest defense.

 

Paxton Lynch – Memphis, 6’7”, 245 lbs, RS Junior

http://draftbreakdown.com/video/paxton-lynch-vs-temple-2015/

 

Notes (time in video relating to note):

 

- General comments: If measurable were everything, Lynch would be other-worldly. He’s a monster. His release time is superb, but he seems to sacrifice ball placement for quick delivery. I also haven’t seen him throw the ball down the field as much as I’d like to, especially considering his arm strength. His ¾ release isn’t a deal-breaker, but he’ll have to work to re-point it in the pros.

- (0:24) fast release to the sticks; efficiently moving the ball

- (1:10) this is the type of play that bothers me. The easy money is there, but he rushes the release and flat out misses an easy first down.

- (1:25) exact opposite of the last play. He takes the extra ¼ second and delivers the ball in stride, giving the WR a chance to make a play.

- (1:36) lots of zip on that throw into a tight window. Arm talent is there.

- (1:49) nice throw on the sprint play; shows the ability to throw while on the move

- (2:22) nails the comeback despite getting hit.

- (2:45) doesn’t seem to see the field really well. Takes the short boundary throw instead of the WR coming free on the drag route over the middle, which is a shame, because he had time in the pocket and had looked off the short zone defender.

- (4:20) really nice pocket feel here. Senses the pressure, climbs to safety, and keeps his eyes up…of course, it’d be nice if he didn’t turf the ball on the throw.

- (5:52) I’m bothered by this play; his first read is the near slot WR, who draws 2 zone defenders. The far slot option is left all alone, but he doesn’t get off his first read to see him. Lost opportunity.

 

Summary: I picked this game because Temple was the best defense Lynch faced, and to me, it was a microcosm of his QB play: tons of lateral throws, quick-hitters, very little downfield passing attack, and mostly a one-read-and-go QB. The South Florida and Houston games (next-best defensive units he faced) were a bit better in this regard, but I wonder why a QB with his arm doesn’t seem to stretch the field more. It’s fine to make your money on the short throws, as a lot of NFL QBs do that, but it’ll take NFL DCs all of 3 games to start jamming his targets at the LOS if he can’t threaten them over the top. I bet he ends up a 1st-round pick on potential, but if I’m an NFL GM, I’m staying away until Round 3.

 

Connor Cook – Michigan State, 6’4”, 220 lbs, Senior

http://draftbreakdown.com/video/connor-cook-vs-penn-state-2015/

 

Notes (time in video relating to note):

 

- General comments: He’s got some raw material for sure, but there’s a lot that needs to be cleaned up. He has a lot of wasted movement in his upper body, and he gets a bit sloppy with his back foot on his follow-through, which causes some balls to sail (especially boundary throws). He also needs to protect the football better. On the plus side, he scans the whole field and seems to process things quickly.

- (0:12) gets loose with his upper body and exposes the ball during his drop-back

- (0:26) gets the ball out quickly on the screen; better ball placement expected

- (0:52) love this play—gets through the play-fake quickly and delivers an accurate deep strike. Ball’s gone in under 4 seconds, which is nice on a PA deep throw.

- (1:30) there’s the loose footwork again

- (2:10) doesn’t set his feet to throw, and it costs his receiver a YAC opportunity

- (2:50) this is a small play, but I like it. He climbs forward in the pocket and uses his safety valve, picking up 7 yards on 2nd-and-10.

- (3:17) maddening and impressive at the same time; he doesn’t drive off his plant foot at the back of his drop, which forces him to muscle the ball to the boundary. That said, it’s a big-time throw that flashes arm talent.

- (3:51) fits it into a very tight window…maybe too tight. I think that ball gets picked in the NFL.

- (4:46) a couple of really nice play-fakes back-to-back.

 

Summary: This was my favorite of Cook’s games that I watched this year. What I like is that the positives he has (pocket presence, quick decision-making, field vision) can’t be taught, and the deficiencies (wasted movement, sloppy footwork, ball security) can. I think the end of round 1 is a great landing spot for him—a team like Arizona could afford to give him a year or two behind Carson Palmer for Bruce Arians to coach him up.

 

Cody Kessler – USC, 6’1”, 215 lbs, Senior

http://draftbreakdown.com/video/cody-kessler-vs-washington-2015/

 

Notes (time in video relating to note):

 

- General comments: Kessler doesn’t have the prototypical size for an NFL QB, but he’s got great mechanics and is smart. My main concern with him is arm strength, because he doesn’t drive the ball on the boundary patterns well.

- (0:17) late throw to the sideline…only guys with an elite arm can make up for a late throw to this area of the field

- (0:32) this ball just takes way too long to get there. Good read, good decision; bad throw.

- (1:23) does a good job of putting the defender in conflict, but then makes a spot throw instead of driving the ball into the receiver. I think that’s another place where the lack of arm strength manifests itself.

- (1:39) relative lack of height hurts him here; doesn’t see the DB creeping on the screen.

- (2:20) really nice job getting the ball out quickly and in a good spot for the WR to make a play.

- (3:04) this is the kind of throw that makes me think he’s got NFL potential. He gets through his drop quickly and fires a nice timing pass into the soft belly of the zone.

- (4:00) back-to-back plays where he shows ability to feel pressure and climb upfield looking to make a play.

- (4:19) another very nice timing throw; this is really what he does well.

- (4:44) this play is music. Keeps his eyes downfield, extends the play, makes a pinpoint throw.

- (7:08) this play upsets me…game on the line, you simply need to give someone a chance to make a play kid. Can’t take that sack.

 

Summary: I don’t want to write the kid off completely, but I think he needs to be in a timing-based passing game to succeed. There are simply too many routes and areas of the field that he doesn’t show the ability to hit. No seam routes, late boundary throws, very little over-the-top, etc. If he can get himself into a Hue Jackson-style offense where he can get the ball out fast to YAC guys and throw out of a dozen different formations, then he’s got a shot. He’s a 4th/5th round guy for me.

Edited by thebandit27
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RD5 QB. Yes, I'm a Tyrod Taylor guy, but when Tyrod went out, we (EJ) made stupid errors.

 

What stupid errors did EJ make in the Bungles game? Our D stunk up the joint and gave up 34 points. EJ threw for 268 with 1 TD and 1 INT and ran for 22 yards with 100% red zone efficiency. EJ doesn't play defense. We scored 21 points which was more than we scored in the 2 previous games to defensive behemoths like Tennessee and New York Giants with almighty Tyrod at the helm.

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Jack would be great but I don't think he makes it out of top 10. WR a definite need. Prescott I would hate but. A qb in first 3 rds is a need.

His injury could cause bad teams to stay away, but you're probably right. The draft stuff and pro day will probably ease the minds.

 

He's an awesome player, though.

 

just say no to Dak

Start coming to terms with this now...just in case.

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His injury could cause bad teams to stay away, but you're probably right. The draft stuff and pro day will probably ease the minds.

 

He's an awesome player, though.

 

Start coming to terms with this now...just in case.

 

hell no, I never liked ej and don't plan on liking anyone I don't like.

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Please draft Hogan from Stanford. He is unquestionably the best pro prospect - most consistent performance of any college qb and winner. Also he has andrew luck athletiscm. Shocked but happy he doesn't get talked about

 

Absurd. He is not unquestionably the best pro prospect. Lots of work he needs to do. A LOT.

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Absurd. He is not unquestionably the best pro prospect. Lots of work he needs to do. A LOT.

 

I've seen the cat play a few times and he's always looked good and plays a pro style offense and has been in on a ton of wins.

 

What don't you like about him and what does he need to work on?

 

You obviously know a lot more about him than I do. Could you expound on why you say what you did above?

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I've seen the cat play a few times and he's always looked good and plays a pro style offense and has been in on a ton of wins.

 

What don't you like about him and what does he need to work on?

 

You obviously know a lot more about him than I do. Could you expound on why you say what you did above?

I'm no QB expert, but last year I hated the idea of Hogan. He was really inaccurate. This year it was a lot less noticeable, but the relative weakness in his arm still shines through on the boundary passes.

 

Not sure where his ceiling is. Many people think he's a Fitz type, journeyman/back-up at best.

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I like Kevin, he's always seemed like a nice guy in our limited interactions, and I wish him success in the NFL. He's played mostly well at Stanford. I worry about how his arm strength will translate to the pro-game, and I really don't like his release. I think he's improved his over the middle accuracy, but the long balls seem hit or miss, and the sideline outs take foreeever to get there. Not convinced about his going through all of his progressions on a frequent basis. Played behind our awesome OLines, and worry there could be some shellshock.

Edited by NickelCity
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I like Kevin, he's always seemed like a nice guy in our limited interactions, and I wish him success in the NFL. He's played mostly well at Stanford. I worry about how his arm strength will translate to the pro-game, and I really don't like his release. I think he's improved his over the middle accuracy, but the long balls seem hit or miss, and the sideline outs take foreeever to get there. Not convinced about his going through all of his progressions on a frequent basis. Played behind our awesome OLines, and worry there could be some shellshock.

 

If he comes into the league and is asked to start early he has no chance. I like his chances as a developmental Quarterback and think developing into a Fitz like top quality backup / low end starter is certainly possible. After that, can he make the next jump to the "solid game manager" category? I think based on what I see that he could though that is more of a risky projection. I think that is his absolute ceiling - game manager NFL QB, but I'm quite positive on him and I'd be willing to pick him as high as the 4th round, certainly would take him if he reaches the Bills' pick in the 5th.

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Another one I finished:

 

Nate Sudfeld – Indiana, 6’5”, 230 lbs, Senior

http://draftbreakdown.com/video/nate-sudfeld-vs-duke-2015/

 

Notes (time in video relating to note):

 

- General comments: My favorite thing about Sudfeld is the lower-body mechanics and drop-back. Very clean, with good drive off his back foot and a solid foundation. His delivery is inefficient; he doesn’t transfer power, and the bent-arm throwing motion robs him of a lot of zip. His passes tend to float to the boundary and on the deep seam routes. He is, however, decisive with a quick release, and has prototypical size.

- (0:08) perfect example of the ball simply not having enough zip to the sideline.

- (0:14) beautiful drive off the plant foot at the top of his drop; look how much better the ball comes out when he transfers that power. That shows me potential.

- (0:54) gets psyched out by the blitz (even though he isn’t in danger) and steps backward, throwing off his back foot and floating the ball. He needs to climb forward and throw with confidence.

- (1:13) much better on the boundary throw. Again, when he transfers his power efficiently, he can make all the throws—this is not a kid that’s limited by arm strength.

- (2:21) sequence of plays that I love. He misses on two straight deep shots due to pressure in his face, and then comes back on the 3rd one and drops a dime in there (on 3rd down too) despite another collapsing pocket. Big time throw.

- (3:06) everything about this play is bad. Double clutches, delivers slow, and throws to a covered receiver.

- (3:44) can’t decide if I like this throw or not. Great play in college—waiting for the WR to stack the safety. In the NFL, I think he either gets hit before he delivers it, or is throwing what ends up being a contested ball at-best.

- (5:50) here’s a small thing that I like: positions his body perfectly to get the ball out quickly and accurately on the “blast” throw out of the zone read. That kind of quick delivery is the difference between 3 and 7 yards on 1st and 15 in that situation.

SIDE NOTE: geez, this Deion Williams—the edge defender for Duke (LB48)—is all over the place this game.

- (6:59) noticeably looks off the deep coverage on the post.

 

Summary: The size and arm strength are NFL caliber, and he does some things well mechanically. The sticking points for me are the upper-body mechanics and how much he can speed up the process at the next level. I’d be buying him as an early Day 3 guy with starting potential.

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A couple more:

 

Christian Hackenberg – Penn State, 6’4”, 228 lbs, Junior

http://draftbreakdown.com/video/christian-hackenberg-vs-michigan-state-2015/

 

Notes (time in video relating to note):

 

- General comments: He’s got a good arm, but I think he trusts it too much. The process is a bit slow from snap to delivery, though he does scan the field well. Many times he puts the ball in dangerous positions instead of giving his targets a chance to make a play.

- (0:15) like the way he scans the field here.

- (0:28) example of him with poor understanding of where to throw; that ball needs to be to the outside shoulder of the WR for him to have a chance.

- (1:00) back-to-back plays that show nice zip on both inside and outside throws

- (1:31) gets sloppy with the footwork; ball sails

- (2:25) rushes the ball to the outside; the slot WR is coming open

- (2:30) nice job of scanning the field and delivering a strike over the middle

- (3:10) bad ball placement; low and inside is where that ball should be thrown

- (3:51) yuck…the eyes come down almost immediately. I think he’s getting sacked there regardless, but he didn’t even look.

- (5:27) that’s just entirely too long to hold the ball without stepping up or throwing

- (6:01) nice dart into a safe spot for the WR

- (8:00) this display kind of says it all

- (10:33) much better ball placement; low and inside

 

Summary: He just doesn’t have the look of an NFL starter to me. Not enough money throws. I haven’t seen him hit a deep ball, or even a mid-range dig route with any consistency. He can probably be a solid backup, but I’m not investing anything above a 5th rounder on him. I know he’ll go higher than that, but I simply don’t see it.

 

Jacoby Brissett – NC State, 6’4”, 235 lbs, Senior

http://draftbreakdown.com/video/jacoby-brissett-vs-clemson-2015/

 

Notes (time in video relating to note):

 

- General comments: I came into the year really loving Brissett—his game against FSU in 2014 was phenomenal. I like his athleticism for such a big guy, and his arm is great. He tends to hold the ball too long, and has kind of a long release. He is fantastic at extending the play and very tough to bring down.

- (0:00) good accuracy on the run

- (0:07) this is what I mean about holding the ball too long; if that ball’s gone a ½ second sooner, it’s complete

- (0:12) Big Ben-like escapability on display

- (0:49) this is an NFL play; steps back into the sliding pocket to avoid the pressure, then throws a bullet back across the field, right on target

- (1:19) the downside to extending plays; exposes the ball and gets stripped

- (2:07) has to be willing to take the dump-off there; takes an unnecessary hit instead

- (2:30) nice placement on the dig route

- (3:07) really nice play-fake here; turns his back to the defense, shows the ball…sells it well

- (5:10) love the placement on this throw

- (5:53) good/bad: looks happy-footed at first, but re-sets and delivers a strike for the TD

- (6:00) that’s a dime…nice throw

- (7:25) if you don’t love this play, well, go away (lol)

 

Summary: I still like Brissett, even though I think he may have some of the same problems we’ve seen with EJ Manuel (holds the ball too long, slow release). I believe he belongs in the NFL, but that he’s going to need work to adjust to the speed of the game and clean up some ball security issues. If I’m a team that has two years to groom a guy, then I’m investing a 4th round pick in Brissett.

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@dpbrugler

Official: QB Carson Wentz will start tomorrow for NDSU in FCS Title Game.

 

Excited to get a look at this kid

ESPN2 noon EST

 

No better prep for the Senior Bowl.

 

He'll also be on the roster coached by the Cowboys. I fully anticipate he'll end up in Dallas now. He'll blow them away.

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