A Few Thoughts About The Game, in no particular order.....

[Orton's Arm]

Bullschit. My posting history here suggest otherwise. I've disagreed with countless opinions around here over the years and have benefitted greatly from different points of view.

 

Echoing others' assertion that you are on an anti-Manuel crusade is mocking? OK.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

> My posting history here suggest otherwise. I've disagreed with countless opinions around here over the years and have benefitted greatly from different points of view.

 

For every time I've seen you engage in the kind of interaction you've described above, there have been at least five times when you've acted condescending toward someone for having a different opinion than yours. You may not realize how dogmatic you come across.

 

Take last year's discussion about Wannestedt for example. It was crystal clear to you that the problem with last year's defense was the players. Not the coaching by any means. The players only. To your credit, you did say a few things in support of that point, instead of just presenting an unsupported opinion. But you came across as though your own arguments were the only thing you could see. When others pointed out that the defense might have benefited from a little extra creativity or unpredictability, the point didn't seem to register with you. Or if it did register, you didn't communicate that fact. You seemed just as frustrated with those who disagreed with you as you would have been with someone who believed that 2 + 2 = 5.

 

The problem with committing so firmly to such a one-sided view is that if you're wrong--as you were about last year's defense--it's hard to backtrack. I'm not trying to suggest that I'm right 100% of the time either, because I'm not.

 

If you want to have reasonable discussions with me, fine. But going into that, there needs to be an understanding that neither of us will disrespect the other; that we're both capable of being wrong, and that no one's unsupported opinion should be confused with fact.

[RuntheDamnBall]

> They need to bolster the OL and they need to acquire a playmaking TE.

 

Granted. But the Bills will probably lose at least two more games (Tampa Bay and New England), with additional losses possible. They'll likely have a top-10 pick. You don't use a pick like that on an OG or even a TE.

It seems like that puts you in another good position to trade down and collect more picks while getting the guy you want at either of those positions, no? Vernon Davis was a top-10 pick, though, just to cite an outlier.

> Steadily Big Ben got better and better to the point that he is now bordering on being an elite qb.

 

The Jets used a similar model with Mark Sanchez. What you've described works great when you've chosen the right QB. If you start off with the assumption that Manuel is the right quarterback, everything you've written flows naturally. But the only way I could convince myself to share in that assumption would be to turn a blind eye to the things he hasn't shown. Or to pretend that most QBs can learn those things if given sufficient development time.

You don't know that you've chosen the right QB until he's been given time to learn the position in the NFL. A precious few guys are NFL ready off the bat. Some have great success to start based on certain natural gifts and a good surrounding cast -- then have a tougher time when they are game-planned for. Others sit for a year or two. By the way, Colin K seems to fall into both of the last two categories -- he has been up and down this season.

Agreed. In that sense he's similar to Fitz. Manuel's physical tools are worlds better than Fitz's. On the other hand, Fitz was very good at quickly and accurately processing large amounts of on-field information. There is no reason other than hope to believe that Manuel will develop a similar ability in the NFL, given that he showed no signs of it in college. Manuel's most likely ceiling is roughly at Fitz's level; with both quarterbacks possessing similar levels of accuracy, and with Manuel's physical tools offsetting Fitz's advantage in information processing.

This is about where EJ fans start feeling like you're insulting Manuel. You can't possibly evaluate his ceiling at this point, can you? If so, how?

 

> This organization has no choice other than place their chips on the qb they brought to the table.

 

On the contrary: they do have a choice. There is no rule against taking first round QBs two years in a row. If anyone within the organization questions the strategy, the response could be, "a typical first round QB chosen outside the top 5 has a 30% chance of working out. It's absolutely essential to get the QB position nailed down, so we're giving ourselves two chances to do that. Besides, we think the world of [QB X]."

Or you could think of it as a waste of a draft pick unless a generational talent is there at your pick.

 

This team's needs are many, and while Manuel put his team in a position to win yesterday, the knives come out after every loss.

 

In reference to your other stat, that 30% chance has led to some of the best QBs we've ever seen, so I just am not sure of the meaning of the statistic. How good are the chances for top 5?

[CSBill]

Was it just me or was anyone else happy to see Marrone show some emotion on the sideline by throwing his visor and yelling?

 

CBF

 

Yes, I thought the same thing . . . first time I saw it all year. Good! Now maybe he needs to direct some it at his own players.

[dave mcbride]

Agreed. In that sense he's similar to Fitz. Manuel's physical tools are worlds better than Fitz's. On the other hand, Fitz was very good at quickly and accurately processing large amounts of on-field information. There is no reason other than hope to believe that Manuel will develop a similar ability in the NFL, given that he showed no signs of it in college. Manuel's most likely ceiling is roughly at Fitz's level; with both quarterbacks possessing similar levels of accuracy, and with Manuel's physical tools offsetting Fitz's advantage in information processing.

 

 

In watching Manuel the last couple of weeks, his problem hasn't been information processing -- he generally makes the right throw, although he checks down a lot to avoid sacks (not a bad thing at all given how devastating sacks are) -- but accuracy on deep and intermediate throws. The near-picks he threw yesterday weren't bad decisions but rather off-target throws along with one unlucky play in which Goodwin fell down because of the lousy turf. He's not horribly inaccurate, but he's certainly not Aaron Rogers at this point of his career. I don't know how much his accuracy will improve, but at this stage his decision making is more or less fine. In the games he has started, he has led the offense to 286, 436, 328, 350, 400 (prorated vs. the Browns), 227, 313, and 405 yards. That's 343 yards per game, which is exactly what they averaged last year. In terms of information processing, turnovers and sack rates strike me as a pretty good proxy. Fitzpatrick's lifetime sack rate was 6.0 prior to this season, but in his first two full-ish seasons (2008 and 2009) it was 9.3 and 8.5. Manuel's sack rate in his rookie is a very-good-for-a-rookie 6.4 percent. By way of comparison, Luck was sacked on 6.1 percent of dropbacks last year and 6.5 percent this year. With regard to turnovers, Manuel has turned it over 5 times (4 ints and one lost fumble). He's average 0.65 turnovers a game (this is a rough estimate because he missed about 20 minutes of the Browns game). Andrew Luck turned it over about 1.4 times a game last year, and in 2011 Fitzpatrick turned it over about 1.67 times. (I say roughly because I'm extrapolating about a 50/50 split on fumbles lost and recovered). His Wonderlic score was a pretty decent 28, which is certainly acceptable for an NFL QB (football ain't rocket surgery, which a lot of people forget). Tom Brady had a 33 and Payton Manning a 28.

 

Anyway, if you focus on the often avoidable negative plays - sacks and turnovers - he's doing pretty well for a rookie. He gets rid of the ball quickly and is willing to take the 2 yard pass completion over the sack. There ain't nothing wrong with that.

Edited December 2, 2013 by dave mcbride

[Wayne Cubed]

 

 

In watching Manuel the last couple of weeks, his problem hasn't been information processing -- he generally makes the right throw, although he checks down a lot to avoid sacks (not a bad thing at all given how devastating sacks are) -- but accuracy on deep and intermediate throws. He's not horribly inaccurate, but he's certainly not Aaron Rogers at this point of his career. I don't know how much his accuracy will improve, but at this stage his decision making is more or less fine. In the games he has started, he has led the offense to 286, 436, 328, 350, 400 (prorated vs. the Browns), 227, 313, and 405 yards. That's 343 yards per game, which is exactly what they averaged last year. In terms of information processing, turnovers and sack rates strike me as a pretty good proxy. Fitzpatrick's lifetime sack rate was 6.0 prior to this season, but in his first two full-ish seasons (2008 and 2009) it was 9.3 and 8.5. Manuel's sack rate in his rookie is a very-good-for-a-rookie 6.4 percent. By way of comparison, Luck was sacked on 6.1 percent of dropbacks last year and 6.5 percent this year. With regard to turnovers, Manuel has turned it over 5 times (4 ints and one lost fumble). He's average 0.65 turnovers a game (this is a rough estimate because he missed about 20 minutes of the Browns game). Andrew Luck turned it over about 1.4 times a game last year, and in 2011 Fitzpatrick turned it over about 1.67 times. (I say roughly because I'm extrapolating about a 50/50 split on fumbles lost and recovered). His Wonderlic score was a pretty decent 28, which is certainly acceptable for an NFL QB (football ain't rocket surgery, which a lot of people forget). Tom Brady had a 33 and Payton Manning a 28.

 

Anyway, if you focus on the often avoidable negative plays - sacks and turnovers - he's doing pretty well for a rookie. He gets rid of the ball quickly and is willing to take the 2 yard pass completion over the sack. There ain't nothing wrong with that.

 

Good post.

 

He is after all a rookie QB. I'd like to know what the Manuel detractors realistically expect from a rookie QB. Key word there, realistically.

[JohnC]

In watching Manuel the last couple of weeks, his problem hasn't been information processing -- he generally makes the right throw, although he checks down a lot to avoid sacks (not a bad thing at all given how devastating sacks are) -- but accuracy on deep and intermediate throws. He's not horribly inaccurate, but he's certainly not Aaron Rogers at this point of his career. I don't know how much his accuracy will improve, but at this stage his decision making is more or less fine. In the games he has started, he has led the offense to 286, 436, 328, 350, 400 (prorated vs. the Browns), 227, 313, and 405 yards. That's 343 yards per game, which is exactly what they averaged last year. In terms of information processing, turnovers and sack rates strike me as a pretty good proxy. Fitzpatrick's lifetime sack rate was 6.0 prior to this season, but in his first two full-ish seasons (2008 and 2009) it was 9.3 and 8.5. Manuel's sack rate in his rookie is a very-good-for-a-rookie 6.4 percent. By way of comparison, Luck was sacked on 6.1 percent of dropbacks last year and 6.5 percent this year. With regard to turnovers, Manuel has turned it over 5 times (4 ints and one lost fumble). He's average 0.65 turnovers a game (this is a rough estimate because he missed about 20 minutes of the Browns game). Andrew Luck turned it over about 1.4 times a game last year, and in 2011 Fitzpatrick turned it over about 1.67 times. (I say roughly because I'm extrapolating about a 50/50 split on fumbles lost and recovered). His Wonderlic score was a pretty decent 28, which is certainly acceptable for an NFL QB (football ain't rocket surgery, which a lot of people forget). Tom Brady had a 33 and Payton Manning a 28.

 

Anyway, if you focus on the often avoidable negative plays - sacks and turnovers - he's doing pretty well for a rookie. He gets rid of the ball quickly and is willing to take the 2 yard pass completion over the sack. There ain't nothing wrong with that.

 

Excellent post Well reasoned and stated.

[chris heff]

 

 

The WaltersFootball evaluation you cited is a terrific evaluation of him as a prospect. What made him appealing were his pysical tools and his personality and character traits. That's the essence of why he was such an intriguing prospect and also a risky prospect. Not one qb prospect in last year's draft was a clean prospect. In all probability no qb prospect in this year's draft is a clean (guaranteed) prospect. The best qb I have seen this year in the college ranks is FSU's Winston. He is not eligible to enter the draft this year and he has some serious legal issues hovering over him.

 

Andrew Luck is a once in a generation qb. So let's not bother using him as a template to compare qbs to. Russell Wilson is another special prospect in that his on the field maturity is already at an elite level. Kaepernick/Griffin/Newton/Foles were not instantly finished products. All of them are undergoing the challenges of learning how to play. That's the frustrating nature of the learning curve that can't be avoided. Since you can't avoid it my recommendation to you is don't allow yourself to be spooked to the point of prematurely pulling the plug on a prospect. The irony that you haven't stated is that the struggles that EJ is going through are the same struggles that other future qb prospects are going to endure. Why start the developmental process and then start the same process with another fresher prospect??? That makes no sense to me.

 

Next offseason the Bills shouldn't use a high draft pick for another qb. In my view that would be foolish. What they need to do is do everything they can to put EJ in a position to succeed. They need to bolster the OL and they need to acquire a playmaking TE. The model for qb development that we should copy is the model that the Steelers used when they drafted Roethlisberger. They had a terrific OL and emphasized the running game and kept the pressure off of their raw qb. Steadily Big Ben got better and better to the point that he is now bordering on being an elite qb.

 

If you put things in perspective you have to acknowledge that EJ has shown enough ability to allow you to think that he can be a franchise qb. The inconsistency he is exhibiting is the norm for young qbs. Is he going to be an elite qb? Absolutely not! He doesn't have the natural impeccable accuracy that those types of special qbs possess.

 

This organization has no choice other than place their chips on the qb they brought to the table. Gambles pay off if you play the cards you are holding; not if you too soon throw the cards on table and walk away. If you want guarantees then you shouldn't have walked into the casino,

You are absolutely correct, but you are trying to reason with the unreasonable. Edwards Arm had decided that Manuel was not any good prior to the draft. He determined this without, in my opinion, ever having seen him play a down of football. Trying to blame Manuel for yesterday's loss is absurd. Manuel's stat line was virtually identical to Luck's. Luck won because his defense didn't get gashed for 34 points and alleged skill players didn't turn over the ball on consecutive potential game wining drives, not because pundits believe he is polished or NFL ready.

 

By Edwards Arm's standards there is a bunch of HOF, Super Bowl winning QBs that would not be considered elite. Starr, Namath, Dawson, Griese and probably Young. There are ten guys that won Super Bowls that he wouldn't have on his team. Bradshaw won four and I remember when he got beaten out by Joe Gilliam, should the Steelers have drafted another QB?

 

You don't give up on a guy after eight starts and you sure as he'll don't give up on him before he even player one game. You also don't try and create blame where there is none.

[JohnC]

You are absolutely correct, but you are trying to reason with the unreasonable. Edwards Arm had decided that Manuel was not any good prior to the draft. He determined this without, in my opinion, ever having seen him play a down of football. Trying to blame Manuel for yesterday's loss is absurd. Manuel's stat line was virtually identical to Luck's. Luck won because his defense didn't get gashed for 34 points and alleged skill players didn't turn over the ball on consecutive potential game wining drives, not because pundits believe he is polished or NFL ready.

 

By Edwards Arm's standards there is a bunch of HOF, Super Bowl winning QBs that would not be considered elite. Starr, Namath, Dawson, Griese and probably Young. There are ten guys that won Super Bowls that he wouldn't have on his team. Bradshaw won four and I remember when he got beaten out by Joe Gilliam, should the Steelers have drafted another QB?

 

You don't give up on a guy after eight starts and you sure as he'll don't give up on him before he even player one game. You also don't try and create blame where there is none.

 

Edwards Arm will eventually come around. Right now he is very invested in his bandwith paradigm. It's a very interesting approach to evaluating qb prospects and it does have merit. My complaint with his paradigm is that there are plenty of examples outside of his paradigm who have thrived at the position.

 

On this issue don't give up on Edwards Arm. I and many others are taking turns hammering away trying to wear him down. If he is as open-minded as I think he is he will eventually come around. He is like the man who only dates blonds. When he eventually trys a redhead who rocks his boat he will learn the lesson about the wisodom of expanding his bandwith.

[Agent 91]

Not exactly a major synopsis of the game, but it comes expected with these posts. No mention of the horrific defense-other than Gilmore? Everyone's savior Kiko was awful. He over pursues and guesses on everything. Not a very bright guy, and that's who is calling the defense on the field? This coaching staff is a nightmare, but what do ypou expect when you are hiring a staff from Syracuse of all places. Can we stop fretting about Pettine getting a head coaching job? Take a look at Buffalo's rankings on team defense. Sure, they have a lot of sacks, because all he does is blitz. Gets burned quite a bit and they can't stop the run. But hey, they are 4-8 and playing meaningful December football, right?

 

I don't know, seems kind of condescending but.... you make some unmistakably good points. I think the secondary needs a succession plan for byrd. And I noticed Alonso waaaaay out of position. Not prepared to call him dumb though. Gilmore is a player who was grossly overdrafted but a second third round grade would make him a steal. Did I just say that. There are a lot of parts that need refining but the base is there.

[FLFan]

It seems like that puts you in another good position to trade down and collect more picks while getting the guy you want at either of those positions, no? Vernon Davis was a top-10 pick, though, just to cite an outlier.

 

You don't know that you've chosen the right QB until he's been given time to learn the position in the NFL. A precious few guys are NFL ready off the bat. Some have great success to start based on certain natural gifts and a good surrounding cast -- then have a tougher time when they are game-planned for. Others sit for a year or two. By the way, Colin K seems to fall into both of the last two categories -- he has been up and down this season.

 

This is about where EJ fans start feeling like you're insulting Manuel. You can't possibly evaluate his ceiling at this point, can you? If so, how?

 

 

Or you could think of it as a waste of a draft pick unless a generational talent is there at your pick.

 

This team's needs are many, and while Manuel put his team in a position to win yesterday, the knives come out after every loss.

 

In reference to your other stat, that 30% chance has led to some of the best QBs we've ever seen, so I just am not sure of the meaning of the statistic. How good are the chances for top 5?

This is all true. It astounds that what we have seen from Manuel thus far would cause anyone to conclude that he is a failed pick, or said another way, will not be an outstanding QB in this league. There is simply no evidence to suggest either after 8 NFL starts. In fact, I have seen nothing so far that would suggest he is anything other than promised - a prospect with great physical tools who will need time to develop his skills at the NFL level. I think his leadership skills and his intelligence for the game are far better than the so called pundits predicted, though exactly what the Bills stated they liked about him.

 

As for drafting another QB, this is beyond silly. Without a total tank by Manuel the balance of the year, there is nothing to suggest they should not continue his development. Selecting yet another rookie, and pitting him against Manuel in training camp, will do nothing but hamper his development, and little to suggest the next guy will be better. Am I missing something or did Andrew Luck just become draft eligible again next year? I see no "generational talents" there. On the contrary, Manuel has given ample reason thus far to suggest his chances are considerable better than "30%".

 

You cannot develop two QB's simultaneously. So, unless they decide he cannot get better, the thing to do is stay the course. This is exactly what is going to happen, so people should get used to the idea.

 

By the way, if I were the Jets, I would be drafting again. There is a case where a QB is living up to exactly his billing, and there is little reason to suspect he is getting or will get better. Big difference. The next coaching staff and GM in NY will make that call, and that would be the time.

Edited December 2, 2013 by MDFan

[RuntheDamnBall]

This is all true. It astounds that what we have seen from Manuel thus far would cause anyone to conclude that he is a failed pick, or said another way, will not be an outstanding QB in this league. There is simply no evidence to suggest either after 8 NFL starts. In fact, I have seen nothing so far that would suggest he is anything other than promised - a prospect with great physical tools who will need time to develop his skills at the NFL level. I think his leadership skills and his intelligence for the game are far better than the so called pundits predicted, though exactly what the Bills stated they liked about him.

It is the hardest thing in the world to just say we don't have all the information that we need and that this will take some time.

 

People also need constant reminding that the plan was for EJ to win the job against a rank-and-file NFL veteran, not to obtain the position by default.

By the way, if I were the Jets, I would be drafting again. There is a case where a QB is living up to exactly his billing, and there is little reason to suspect he is getting or will get better. Big difference. The next coaching staff and GM in NY will make that call, and that would be the time.

I liked Geno, but my dad and I - both fans of his college career - agreed that the NYJ was the ABSOLUTE WORST situation for him to be in. I think if he had been drafted by a strong organization like the Ravens or even the Pats he could have ended up with a killer career. As it stands he faces a very uphill battle in that he has to defeat not just an opponent on a weekly basis, but also the NY media, while keeping the dogs at bay within his clown college of an organization. He is in a very poor place to learn the ropes of the NFL, and with Sanchez hurt he had zero opportunity to sit back and watch.

[fergie's ire]

To me, Manual's game seemed like a microcosm of his season. Started out very accurate....but very safe. Lots of running plays and when he did they were to outlet receivers or short crossing patterns. Then, the defense took that the way, and, frankly, he looked a little lost. Not only were his safe passes gone, but he seemed to get flustered and his footwork fell apart. Later, he took some chances deep and while he missed on some (both passes to Goodwin) and hit others (Woods), they were close enough to loosen the defense, and he started making some nice throws (both fumbled catches) and really won us the game (twice).

 

As for the Gilmore haters, I don't see how you can criticize the guy. He has looked awesome.....like the best shut-down corner in the league. ......Okay, some of you are going to nitpick and say Gitlin has only looked that way in OTAs......and well, that's true. But we may have the best spring cornerback in the league....so we have that going for us.

[Orton's Arm]

Edwards Arm will eventually come around. Right now he is very invested in his bandwith paradigm. It's a very interesting approach to evaluating qb prospects and it does have merit. My complaint with his paradigm is that there are plenty of examples outside of his paradigm who have thrived at the position.

 

On this issue don't give up on Edwards Arm. I and many others are taking turns hammering away trying to wear him down. If he is as open-minded as I think he is he will eventually come around. He is like the man who only dates blonds. When he eventually trys a redhead who rocks his boat he will learn the lesson about the wisodom of expanding his bandwith.

 

> I and many others are taking turns hammering away trying to wear him down.

 

I am much more likely to change an opinion in response to new data than because of social pressure. I acknowledge that you and others have presented data and/or reasoning with which to support your positions. But some of it is flawed. For example, one person sees sack percentage and so forth as a proxy for information processing speed. But what if a QB consistently checks down if that first read isn't open? A QB like that hasn't demonstrated much information processing speed. A better measurement is the eyeball test. If the offense looks wide-open--if you get the sense that the QB will throw the ball to any given open target; regardless of whether he's the first read or the fourth--and if you see the QB actively looking at several different targets each play; then these things are typically a good sign of information processing speed.

 

> Right now he is very invested in his bandwith paradigm.

 

Bandwidth is certainly a very important part of what I look for. Another part is a consistently high level of accuracy. A third is touch. A fourth is timing: the ability to hit the receiver in perfect stride. These are probably the four most important things I look for. My position on these things today is very much the same as it was in 1998; when I strongly supported Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf.

 

> If he is as open-minded as I think he is he will eventually come around.

 

Whether I "come around" or not will depend a lot more on EJ than anything written here. At this point in his career, Manuel's play doesn't look the way franchise QB play should look. His stats--as measured by yards per attempt--are roughly comparable to those put up by Trent Edwards. If a year or two from now he's "developed" and those things have changed, I'll be the first to say so. Okay, maybe not the very first, but certainly early enough!

 

To answer a question you asked in an earlier post, I think it's extremely unlikely the Bills will use a first round pick on a QB in next year's draft. I'm used to this franchise doing things less well than some of the more intelligent and well-informed fans would do them. For example, there's no way a guy like Bill from NYC could have been convinced to squander the 8th overall pick on Donte Whitner! A discussion about what the Bills will do is different from (and often bears little relation to) a discussion of what they should do.

[chris heff]

 

 

Edwards Arm will eventually come around. Right now he is very invested in his bandwith paradigm. It's a very interesting approach to evaluating qb prospects and it does have merit. My complaint with his paradigm is that there are plenty of examples outside of his paradigm who have thrived at the position.

 

On this issue don't give up on Edwards Arm. I and many others are taking turns hammering away trying to wear him down. If he is as open-minded as I think he is he will eventually come around. He is like the man who only dates blonds. When he eventually trys a redhead who rocks his boat he will learn the lesson about the wisodom of expanding his bandwith.

After my first go round with Edwards Arm, which was after the draft and before training camp, I asked him if he had ever seen Manuel play at FSU. His silence led me to conclude he had not. His opinion was based on how the opinion of others fit his own bandwidth theory. It makes his conclusion questionable. I felt that some of my responses may have been a bit harsh. So I backed off the Manuel debate. I even attempted to find common ground, on other topics. It is not my intention to come to this site to be contentious. I'm cognizant of the fact that we are all Bills Fans. That being said blaming yesterday's loss on Manuel is like blaming World War II on Poland.

[Dibs]

This EJ stuff is crazy...the guy played well. He wasn't perfect, but I'm seeing his performance compared to the Steelers' game? This cannot be a serious statement.

.....

 

I think you are referring to something I wrote here.......and I was serious.....but my meaning wasn't in the way that you took it be.

 

I'll preface this by saying that I hold no stock in my opinions in this sort of area....but conversely, I rarely make comment in these areas unless I feel confident that I have seen something.

 

My comment comparing his performance to the Steelers game was nothing to do with his stats or overall achievements in each game. Obviously he played a vastly better game against the Falcons than he did against the Steelers. My correlation was instead one of how I perceived his demeanor on the field.

 

Through most of the Falcons game I felt that he was not totally confident. This then caused him to play a more "game manager" role(which he did fairly well in) rather than a confident "play maker" role which he exhibited more in the Jets game.

 

In my mind.....assuming my amateur and perhaps naive thoughts have some validity.....this is a good sign for the concept that EJ can become an elite QB. If many of the flaws that he has shown are a product of being a nervous rookie, and not endemic to his actual abilities......when he overcomes the nerves and plays the game in a confident and relaxed manner, he might well become the answer at QB that we have been looking for.

[dave mcbride]

 

 

> I and many others are taking turns hammering away trying to wear him down.

 

I am much more likely to change an opinion in response to new data than because of social pressure. I acknowledge that you and others have presented data and/or reasoning with which to support your positions. But some of it is flawed. For example, one person sees sack percentage and so forth as a proxy for information processing speed. But what if a QB consistently checks down if that first read isn't open? A QB like that hasn't demonstrated much information processing speed. A better measurement is the eyeball test. If the offense looks wide-open--if you get the sense that the QB will throw the ball to any given open target; regardless of whether he's the first read or the fourth--and if you see the QB actively looking at several different targets each play; then these things are typically a good sign of information processing speed.

 

> Right now he is very invested in his bandwith paradigm.

 

Bandwidth is certainly a very important part of what I look for. Another part is a consistently high level of accuracy. A third is touch. A fourth is timing: the ability to hit the receiver in perfect stride. These are probably the four most important things I look for. My position on these things today is very much the same as it was in 1998; when I strongly supported Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf.

 

> If he is as open-minded as I think he is he will eventually come around.

 

Whether I "come around" or not will depend a lot more on EJ than anything written here. At this point in his career, Manuel's play doesn't look the way franchise QB play should look. His stats--as measured by yards per attempt--are roughly comparable to those put up by Trent Edwards. If a year or two from now he's "developed" and those things have changed, I'll be the first to say so. Okay, maybe not the very first, but certainly early enough!

 

To answer a question you asked in an earlier post, I think it's extremely unlikely the Bills will use a first round pick on a QB in next year's draft. I'm used to this franchise doing things less well than some of the more intelligent and well-informed fans would do them. For example, there's no way a guy like Bill from NYC could have been convinced to squander the 8th overall pick on Donte Whitner! A discussion about what the Bills will do is different from (and often bears little relation to) a discussion of what they should do.

Instead of responding to others' factual posts with rationalizations of your general position and harkening back to the Manning-Leaf debate, I offer a challenge: lay out the ypa, sack rates, and turnover numbers for every rookie qb drafted in the top two rounds who started a significant number of games in their rookie seasons over the past 8 years. The information is readily available. Production stats talk; impressionistic bullsh*t walks.

Edited December 3, 2013 by dave mcbride

[Orton's Arm]

After my first go round with Edwards Arm, which was after the draft and before training camp, I asked him if he had ever seen Manuel play at FSU. His silence led me to conclude he had not. His opinion was based on how the opinion of others fit his own bandwidth theory. It makes his conclusion questionable. I felt that some of my responses may have been a bit harsh. So I backed off the Manuel debate. I even attempted to find common ground, on other topics. It is not my intention to come to this site to be contentious. I'm cognizant of the fact that we are all Bills Fans. That being said blaming yesterday's loss on Manuel is like blaming World War II on Poland.

 

I've tried two different methods of evaluating college QBs. Method 1 is to rely on draft experts to interpret the raw data for me. Method 2 is to look at the raw data myself. When using Method 2, I came away with a favorable opinion of Jimmy Clausen; much to my own embarrassment. Granted, I only watched one of Jimmy's games (the one against Stanford). I'm sure that the most respected experts watched each of his games. I imagine many of them used coaches' film, not just what you see on television.

 

On the other hand, my predictions based on Method 1 have generally (but not always) been reliable. I do not consider myself better at breaking down football film than an expert like Vic Carucci or Greg Cosell; so there's no intrinsic reason to believe that Method 2 should yield better results than Method 1.

 

> That being said blaming yesterday's loss on Manuel is like blaming World War II on Poland.

 

In 1939, the French had promised Poland that in an event of a German attack, France would launch a general offensive against Germany. This promise was a lie.

 

************

In his post-war diaries [british] general Edmund Ironside, the chief of Imperial General Staff commented on French promises "The French had lied to the Poles in saying they are going to attack. There is no idea of it".[25]

***********

 

The Polish government naively believed the French politicians' promises; and adopted an anti-German foreign policy. They ignored Germany's offer of a Germano-Polish alliance against the Soviet Union; and refused to return any Polish-occupied German territory to Germany. It became clear that Poland would fight against Germany in any general European conflict. Whether that justified the German invasion may be a little off-topic for this thread. The point I'm making here is that the truth is sometimes more complex than things may first appear. It's generally worth the time to take a second or even third look before making up one's mind.

[RuntheDamnBall]

Here we go.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Guys the problem is not EJ.

Look no further then Hackett and thus Marrone.

Sorry but these guys will be here two more dreadful seasons and then be fired. They are both in way over their head. They will be here just long enough to ruin EJ's career and confidence. Then Marrone will be an OC back in college and Hackett his QB coach.

Sorry but they lost me yesterday.

I watch a lot of Falcons football. The Bills stunk and wher eunder prepaired after a bye. Inexcuseable.

I hated the Marrone hire when it was made and hate it more now. The guy stinks. Clueless. He is another Mularky, Williams. and Dickie J!!

[Al Cowlings]

Guys the problem is not EJ.

Look no further then Hackett and thus Marrone.

Sorry but these guys will be here two more dreadful seasons and then be fired. They are both in way over their head. They will be here just long enough to ruin EJ's career and confidence. Then Marrone will be an OC back in college and Hackett his QB coach.

Sorry but they lost me yesterday.

I watch a lot of Falcons football. The Bills stunk and wher eunder prepaired after a bye. Inexcuseable.

I hated the Marrone hire when it was made and hate it more now. The guy stinks. Clueless. He is another Mularky, Williams. and Dickie J!!

 

This^ horrible coaching staff. Gailey would have two more wins if he was still around. Marrone is very bad.

[CardinalScotts]

1) Leodis McKelvin is a pleasure to watch. I am the very first to admit that I thought little of him before this season. This man can cover.

 

2) Cordy Glenn gets better each week. Yeah, he really does.

 

3) Early in the game I wrote in my notes that Mario was a non-factor. But he kept fighting and he made tackles, blocked a pass, and had a sack. He makes the big bucks and doesn't quit. He sure has my respect!

 

4) We have had a whole bunch of "apology threads" on this board. Who is going to be the first to apologize to BADOLBEELZ about his take on Stevie Johnson?

 

5) In the end there's just a song.

Comes crying like the wind.

Through all the broken dreams,

and vanished years.

Stella Blue.

 

6) EJ was awful today imo. He always seemed slow to make reads. His completion percentage was not good, and he didn't see several wide open receivers. That said, the best pass of his short career was fumbled away by Chandler.

 

7) Bradham didn't show up well on the stat sheet, but he had a KEY tackle on the punt return with 4:26 left in the 4th. This stuff matters.

 

8) Badol, I am not going to start a thread. What I WILL do is state that I am sorry that I AGREED with you. Yes, it's true. You said that you wanted to keep SJ on the team and got attacked. I also posted that I wanted to keep him. I take it back. He lost us another game, and I am at a loss to remember a game that he has won for us. It's a shame that we couldn't get a 3rd round pick for him. I would take it in a heartbeat.

 

9) Is Summers just a bit too quick to signal Goodwin to down kickoffs? Seriously, do the Bills have THAT much to lose by letting him try to run back kicks?

 

10) I gotta tip my hat to Spiller. Was he hurt or not? Either way, he had some splendid runs.

 

11) The Bills need to lock up Branch. He and Hughes were the best Bills defenders in this game in my very humble opinion. I will take it a step further and say that the Bills would not have been in the game without key tackles and pressure from Branch.

 

12) I take it back. Gilmore IS a "shutdown corner." His stupid, ill timed penalties, as well as his poor coverage helps to shut down the Bills ability to win football games.

 

13) Once again, EJ needs more called running plays. He is good at running the football.

 

14) Being a Bills Fan is equivalent to a life of pain, but it is one that I would not trade. We truly are great fans to endure this.

 

15) GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

15 for 15 this time around....weird how sometimes you can be way off on one, or two....then some weeks right in lock step

[LB3]

Guys the problem is not EJ.

Look no further then Hackett and thus Marrone.

Sorry but these guys will be here two more dreadful seasons and then be fired. They are both in way over their head. They will be here just long enough to ruin EJ's career and confidence. Then Marrone will be an OC back in college and Hackett his QB coach.

Sorry but they lost me yesterday.

I watch a lot of Falcons football. The Bills stunk and wher eunder prepaired after a bye. Inexcuseable.

I hated the Marrone hire when it was made and hate it more now. The guy stinks. Clueless. He is another Mularky, Williams. and Dickie J!!

 

WOW. Just WOW. Please elaborate on how Hackett called a bad game yesterday. Please elaborate on how he fumbled away two chances at winning. I'd love to hear how 400+ yards of offense is bad.

 

John Murphy hung up on every caller who blamed the loss on Hackett today. Wonder why???

 

 

 

This^ horrible coaching staff. Gailey would have two more wins if he was still around. Marrone is very bad.

 

Really?? With his best friend Wannstache as d coordinator? With Gailey and crew we might not have won one game.

Edited December 3, 2013 by KikoSeeBallKikoGetBall

[BADOLBILZ]

1) Leodis McKelvin is a pleasure to watch. I am the very first to admit that I thought little of him before this season. This man can cover.

 

2) Cordy Glenn gets better each week. Yeah, he really does.

 

3) Early in the game I wrote in my notes that Mario was a non-factor. But he kept fighting and he made tackles, blocked a pass, and had a sack. He makes the big bucks and doesn't quit. He sure has my respect!

 

4) We have had a whole bunch of "apology threads" on this board. Who is going to be the first to apologize to BADOLBEELZ about his take on Stevie Johnson?

 

5) In the end there's just a song.

Comes crying like the wind.

Through all the broken dreams,

and vanished years.

Stella Blue.

 

6) EJ was awful today imo. He always seemed slow to make reads. His completion percentage was not good, and he didn't see several wide open receivers. That said, the best pass of his short career was fumbled away by Chandler.

 

7) Bradham didn't show up well on the stat sheet, but he had a KEY tackle on the punt return with 4:26 left in the 4th. This stuff matters.

 

8) Badol, I am not going to start a thread. What I WILL do is state that I am sorry that I AGREED with you. Yes, it's true. You said that you wanted to keep SJ on the team and got attacked. I also posted that I wanted to keep him. I take it back. He lost us another game, and I am at a loss to remember a game that he has won for us. It's a shame that we couldn't get a 3rd round pick for him. I would take it in a heartbeat.

 

9) Is Summers just a bit too quick to signal Goodwin to down kickoffs? Seriously, do the Bills have THAT much to lose by letting him try to run back kicks?

 

10) I gotta tip my hat to Spiller. Was he hurt or not? Either way, he had some splendid runs.

 

11) The Bills need to lock up Branch. He and Hughes were the best Bills defenders in this game in my very humble opinion. I will take it a step further and say that the Bills would not have been in the game without key tackles and pressure from Branch.

 

12) I take it back. Gilmore IS a "shutdown corner." His stupid, ill timed penalties, as well as his poor coverage helps to shut down the Bills ability to win football games.

 

13) Once again, EJ needs more called running plays. He is good at running the football.

 

14) Being a Bills Fan is equivalent to a life of pain, but it is one that I would not trade. We truly are great fans to endure this.

 

15) GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

1) Leodis deserves the praise. He has been excellent.

 

2) Agreed on Cordy Glenn. He is playing like a $10M LT.

 

3)Mario brings it but teams have just started gameplanning around him. When Pettine lined him up over center twice he absolutely floored Peter Konz. A sack and a QB hit. With an immobile QB I want to see my best pass rusher on the worst pass blocker a lot. You want someone to set the edge in place of Mario then move Dareus out wide on those snaps. Dareus had a rough day yesterday. Not sure why he is so up and down.

 

4)Apologies aren't going to bring the playoffs back unfortunately. Stevie is who he is. Good player but his problems are real.

 

6)I agree that EJ was awful. It really comes down to whether or not you think struggling to hit open receivers is acceptable because he is a rookie. I am not giving up on him, but I want to see Hackett open it up more so we can see what EJ can do when he gets in a rhythm.

 

7)Bradham is legitimate depth. Hopefully the days of having to carry a Chris White on the roster are over for a while.

 

8)I still think sticking with SJ is the best solution. There isn't a precise parallel by any means but McKelvin used to kill us too. Marrone definitely needs to figure out a way to get his attention though.

 

9)I think from here on out they should be quicker to take back those kicks. They need to work on their special teams the rest of this season just like everything else. Taking an knee ain't getting it done.

 

10)Yesterday was a good CJ day. He is still a liability in the pass game and he gives you some no gains on plays that Fred Jackson will consistently get you some yardage. The Bills have two good backs and no great one. Fred is the Flutie and CJ is the Rob Johnson. If we were getting excellent QB play the RB play would be more respected. Too bad Fred is getting so long in the tooth. They need to work on finding value at RB in the middle rounds in this coming draft before it becomes a need.

 

11)Branch is playing at a high level. His length is a great fit in Pettines defense. The Bills ran into an OL that could handle the shorter, stouter interior DL today. Hughes is a high quality 3rd down rusher. Glad they have him for another year.

 

12)Gilmore has been a huge disappointment. It's kind of annoying when you are seeing players get cramps too. That is a matter of hydration. The Bills just consistently seem less prepared to play than good teams. I am not done with Marrone yet, but if this doesn't get turned around with all the talent this team has now accumulated then the next hire needs to be a proven winner who can command the respect and attention of the players. The culture of losing is tough to turn around. If I am Marrone, I am asking the scouts to find me the best QB prospect in this upcoming draft and don't be shy about drafting him in round 1. Marrone's personality alone hasn't changed the ways of this team. Nothing has changed and now they are used to losing with Marrone so it's not going to get any easier for him to convey his message. He needs a game-changing QB, IMO. EJ may eventually be that guy but right now the only consistent positive in his game has been not turning the ball over. QB's like that can win enough to get you to the playoffs, but you need to have the better roster week in and week out to succeed with a true game manager.

 

13) I agree that EJ should be allowed to run. He isn't a sacred cow. I think running some would open up the field a bit for him, possibly simplify some of his decisions and help him get in a rhythm early. I'd rather see him tuck and run a couple out of the read option than watch him tentatively throw poor passes for much of the game. On a positive note, he looks much sharper in the clutch. But in all fairness, the aforementioned Rob Johnson had some great moments in the clutch....game winning scrambles, setting up the should have been game winning FG in TN, the epic battle with Flutie in SD.....but he could rarely get the fire burning earlier in games. What I am getting at is that just because he shows focus in the clutch doesn't mean EJ will ever become a consistent 60 minute QB.

Edited December 3, 2013 by BADOLBEELZ

[Al Cowlings]

 

 

WOW. Just WOW. Please elaborate on how Hackett called a bad game yesterday. Please elaborate on how he fumbled away two chances at winning. I'd love to hear how 400+ yards of offense is bad.

 

John Murphy hung up on every caller who blamed the loss on Hackett today. Wonder why???

 

 

 

Really?? With his best friend Wannstache as d coordinator? With Gailey and crew we might not have won one game.

 

They won more games with Fitztrajic as QB! Look at Buffalo's team defense stats this year-they are terrible. Keep drinking the Kool Aide.

[LB3]

 

 

They won more games with Fitztrajic as QB! Look at Buffalo's team defense stats this year-they are terrible. Keep drinking the Kool Aide.

 

You should look at the stats as well. We are better in yards allowed per game and points allowed per game. We are also number one in the league in sacks and near the top in turnovers. So keep drinking your own ill informed Kool aid.

 

Also. Unbelievable! They've won less games while not having played all 16 games. Great analysis.

Edited December 3, 2013 by KikoSeeBallKikoGetBall

[K-9]

> My posting history here suggest otherwise. I've disagreed with countless opinions around here over the years and have benefitted greatly from different points of view.

 

For every time I've seen you engage in the kind of interaction you've described above, there have been at least five times when you've acted condescending toward someone for having a different opinion than yours. You may not realize how dogmatic you come across.

 

Take last year's discussion about Wannestedt for example. It was crystal clear to you that the problem with last year's defense was the players. Not the coaching by any means. The players only. To your credit, you did say a few things in support of that point, instead of just presenting an unsupported opinion. But you came across as though your own arguments were the only thing you could see. When others pointed out that the defense might have benefited from a little extra creativity or unpredictability, the point didn't seem to register with you. Or if it did register, you didn't communicate that fact. You seemed just as frustrated with those who disagreed with you as you would have been with someone who believed that 2 + 2 = 5.

 

The problem with committing so firmly to such a one-sided view is that if you're wrong--as you were about last year's defense--it's hard to backtrack. I'm not trying to suggest that I'm right 100% of the time either, because I'm not.

 

If you want to have reasonable discussions with me, fine. But going into that, there needs to be an understanding that neither of us will disrespect the other; that we're both capable of being wrong, and that no one's unsupported opinion should be confused with fact.

 

This year's defensive performance is bearing my point about players vs. scheme quite nicely, thank-you. Different scheme, same crap defense for the most part. Oh, we've gotten some more sacks due to scheme, but that's about it. Secondly, my main gripe about last year's defense was that we had a crap LB corps, no SS, and and a weakside DE that had no business playing in this league. Lo and behold, NO LB remains the same or in the same position, our SS was cut, and God only knows where Kyle Moore is. I've had no less than 2 NFL HCs and 5 NFL DCs over the last 35 years tell me personally that talent trumps scheme every time. So no, on this matter, I don't think my opinion is uninformed or unsupported in the least. Quite the contrary. Could Wanny have done a better job in putting players in positions to succeed. Absolutely. But he didn't trust his players enough given the woeful lack of talent at his disposal so it was completely understandable from my perspective. As well as to others that I trust implicitly on the matter.

 

As to the rest of your condescending tripe about my inability to accept counter-points to any argument and your completely made up statistic in that regard, well, I'm not surprised.

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

[ganesh]

This EJ stuff is crazy...the guy played well. He wasn't perfect, but I'm seeing his performance compared to the Steelers' game? This cannot be a serious statement.

 

He made some very good throws and had a great TD run...and let's not forget he played his best football when the game was on the line; that's what franchise QBs do.

 

I'd also like to see what his numbers would be like if Goodwin doesn't get held on at least one of the two deep over-throws from EJ (I personally thought one of them was borderline holding, while the second was obvious IMO).

 

This kid's going to be good; just give him some time to develop. If today is "awful" in your book, then I think we're going to be very, very happy with him once he goes through another off-season of NFL maturation.

 

And he has great chemistry with Woods. Woods should be his #1 option and not SJ

[chris heff]

 

 

I've tried two different methods of evaluating college QBs. Method 1 is to rely on draft experts to interpret the raw data for me. Method 2 is to look at the raw data myself. When using Method 2, I came away with a favorable opinion of Jimmy Clausen; much to my own embarrassment. Granted, I only watched one of Jimmy's games (the one against Stanford). I'm sure that the most respected experts watched each of his games. I imagine many of them used coaches' film, not just what you see on television.

 

On the other hand, my predictions based on Method 1 have generally (but not always) been reliable. I do not consider myself better at breaking down football film than an expert like Vic Carucci or Greg Cosell; so there's no intrinsic reason to believe that Method 2 should yield better results than Method 1.

 

> That being said blaming yesterday's loss on Manuel is like blaming World War II on Poland.

 

In 1939, the French had promised Poland that in an event of a German attack, France would launch a general offensive against Germany. This promise was a lie.

 

************

In his post-war diaries [british] general Edmund Ironside, the chief of Imperial General Staff commented on French promises "The French had lied to the Poles in saying they are going to attack. There is no idea of it".[25]

***********

 

The Polish government naively believed the French politicians' promises; and adopted an anti-German foreign policy. They ignored Germany's offer of a Germano-Polish alliance against the Soviet Union; and refused to return any Polish-occupied German territory to Germany. It became clear that Poland would fight against Germany in any general European conflict. Whether that justified the German invasion may be a little off-topic for this thread. The point I'm making here is that the truth is sometimes more complex than things may first appear. It's generally worth the time to take a second or even third look before making up one's mind.

Do you pontificate for a living? That was the excuse for invading Poland if your looking for the blame for World War II it lies in World War I and the Treaty of Versailles.

 

Nice use of Wikipedia though.

 

By the way both Kaiser Wilhelm and Hitler had good YPA, arms strength, accuracy, but bad decision making. Neither could win the big one.

Edited December 3, 2013 by chris heff

[OldTimer1960]

Geno Smith was awful today....EJ was not....he was a damn good rookie qb in his seventh game who didnt make any big mistakes, completed 63 percent of his throws and put his team in spot to win with his play not just once but twice with the game on the line. ....soe of your comments are insightful. Others not so much....

 

+1

 

I don't understand why many are so harsh on Manuel. If that was "awful" then there are no words for some QB performances. Again, I don't know if Manuel will be the long- term answer, but I've been generally pleased with his play so far (Pittsburgh game was tough to watch, though)

[KRT88]

My biggest observation is simple:

 

the offensive play calling lacks creativity.

 

I did not recall seeing one first down play action pass.

I did not recall seeing on screen play called

How many times do we pass on first down?

 

This team has two of the best backs in the league, why is it that they can never be on the field together.

 

Imagine you are a defensive coordinator and you see Spiller and Jackson lineup in a split formation. Spiller motions out and draws a linebacker to cover him, the offense needs to run a clear out and use that advantage. Start with Spiller out wide and bring him in, the linebackers have to move up, and Jackson can go backside against the defense. I can't imagine how using the two together wouldn't benefit out young QB. Obviously not all the time but several times a game.

[GunnerBill]

I do agree with the point that there must at least be some plays we could run where CJ and Fred are on the field together. Even Gailey had a couple of them in his playbook last year. Hackett hinted at it in press conferences during camp, but unless I missed it (I've seen every game except for the Saints game and the second quarter in Pittsburgh) I've not seen them in on the same play once. Having said that (and bearing in mind my question about why we had CJ in the backfield and not Fred when we could have killed clock with 5 minutes to go) I agree with the general view that you can't lay Sunday's defeat at the hands of the play calling. The offense put up 31 and had the ball in field goal range with 20 seconds to go..... then Stevie dropped it.

[dave mcbride]

 

 

I've tried two different methods of evaluating college QBs. Method 1 is to rely on draft experts to interpret the raw data for me. Method 2 is to look at the raw data myself. When using Method 2, I came away with a favorable opinion of Jimmy Clausen; much to my own embarrassment. Granted, I only watched one of Jimmy's games (the one against Stanford). I'm sure that the most respected experts watched each of his games. I imagine many of them used coaches' film, not just what you see on television.

 

On the other hand, my predictions based on Method 1 have generally (but not always) been reliable. I do not consider myself better at breaking down football film than an expert like Vic Carucci or Greg Cosell; so there's no intrinsic reason to believe that Method 2 should yield better results than Method 1.

 

> That being said blaming yesterday's loss on Manuel is like blaming World War II on Poland.

 

In 1939, the French had promised Poland that in an event of a German attack, France would launch a general offensive against Germany. This promise was a lie.

 

************

In his post-war diaries [british] general Edmund Ironside, the chief of Imperial General Staff commented on French promises "The French had lied to the Poles in saying they are going to attack. There is no idea of it".[25]

***********

 

The Polish government naively believed the French politicians' promises; and adopted an anti-German foreign policy. They ignored Germany's offer of a Germano-Polish alliance against the Soviet Union; and refused to return any Polish-occupied German territory to Germany. It became clear that Poland would fight against Germany in any general European conflict. Whether that justified the German invasion may be a little off-topic for this thread. The point I'm making here is that the truth is sometimes more complex than things may first appear. It's generally worth the time to take a second or even third look before making up one's mind.

Implying that Poland could have avoided a war with Germany if they had allied with them is simply wrong. I suggest reading Ernest May's STRANGE VICTORY, Mark Mazower's HITLER'S EMPIRE, and Adam Tooze's WAGES OF DESTRUCTION. All along, Hitler firmly intended to swallow up Poland, and he was also intent on war. Poland and the east were the basis of lebensraum. Poland had no way out. The decision had been made years before.

[Kemp]

Guys the problem is not EJ.

Look no further then Hackett and thus Marrone.

Sorry but these guys will be here two more dreadful seasons and then be fired. They are both in way over their head. They will be here just long enough to ruin EJ's career and confidence. Then Marrone will be an OC back in college and Hackett his QB coach.

Sorry but they lost me yesterday.

I watch a lot of Falcons football. The Bills stunk and wher eunder prepaired after a bye. Inexcuseable.

I hated the Marrone hire when it was made and hate it more now. The guy stinks. Clueless. He is another Mularky, Williams. and Dickie J!!

 

I love when fans think a coach can ruin a player's career when it is the exact opposite.

[FLFan]

Implying that Poland could have avoided a war with Germany if they had allied with them is simply wrong. I suggest reading Ernest May's STRANGE VICTORY, Mark Mazower's HITLER'S EMPIRE, and Adam Tooze's WAGES OF DESTRUCTION. All along, Hitler firmly intended to swallow up Poland, and he was also intent on war. Poland and the east were the basis of lebensraum. Poland had no way out. The decision had been made years before.

You are correct. See also The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, William Shirer. I am still not sure what this has to do with a debate about EJ Manuel.

[K-9]

I love when fans think a coach can ruin a player's career when it is the exact opposite.

 

^This. I'm glad someone finally made this point. Although there will be some trumpeting the exception as the rule that refutes your point. But you are spot on here. It's always been a player's league and always will be. Poor players get more coaches fired than coaches cut good players by a WIDE margin. I mean, it's not even close.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[34-78-83]

Thanks Bill and some of the other folks for your opinions! Always appreciated... Also found a new retard or two to block! Good thread

[thebandit27]

 

I think you are referring to something I wrote here.......and I was serious.....but my meaning wasn't in the way that you took it be.

 

I'll preface this by saying that I hold no stock in my opinions in this sort of area....but conversely, I rarely make comment in these areas unless I feel confident that I have seen something.

 

My comment comparing his performance to the Steelers game was nothing to do with his stats or overall achievements in each game. Obviously he played a vastly better game against the Falcons than he did against the Steelers. My correlation was instead one of how I perceived his demeanor on the field.

 

Through most of the Falcons game I felt that he was not totally confident. This then caused him to play a more "game manager" role(which he did fairly well in) rather than a confident "play maker" role which he exhibited more in the Jets game.

 

In my mind.....assuming my amateur and perhaps naive thoughts have some validity.....this is a good sign for the concept that EJ can become an elite QB. If many of the flaws that he has shown are a product of being a nervous rookie, and not endemic to his actual abilities......when he overcomes the nerves and plays the game in a confident and relaxed manner, he might well become the answer at QB that we have been looking for.

 

Well that makes about 150,000 times more sense than what I had originally interpreted.

 

Thanks for the clarification.

[chris heff]

 

You are correct. See also The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, William Shirer. I am still not sure what this has to do with a debate about EJ Manuel.

It is my fault. I wrote that blaming Manuel for this loss was like blaming Poland for WWII.

[thewildrabbit]

I love when fans think a coach can ruin a player's career when it is the exact opposite.

Who put the player on the field in the first place?

 

The do have tiers of ability, and its up to the coaches to evaluate the talent, and put the best players on the field.

 

Some players like LG Colin Brown or CB Justin Rodgers should have never been starters or even seen the field during a regular season game. Jeff Tuel should have never seen the field this year as the starting QB. Backup guard Sam young should have never seen the field. All but Tuel have been outright cut from the team, and Tuel is now 3rd string.

 

I get it that Marrone, Hackett are rookie NFL coaches at their jobs, and so is new GM Doug Whaley. So in my view they get more of a pass in their first year then both very NFL experienced Buddy Nix / Chan Gailey should have gotten. To their credit they have already equaled Nix / Gailey in their first 2010 season. Plus, this years Bills still have a chance to finish with a winning record, and they managed this with 3 very raw rookies at QB too.

[Orton's Arm]

Implying that Poland could have avoided a war with Germany if they had allied with them is simply wrong. I suggest reading Ernest May's STRANGE VICTORY, Mark Mazower's HITLER'S EMPIRE, and Adam Tooze's WAGES OF DESTRUCTION. All along, Hitler firmly intended to swallow up Poland, and he was also intent on war. Poland and the east were the basis of lebensraum. Poland had no way out. The decision had been made years before.

 

I've already read Adam Tooze's Wages of Destruction. One of the best history books I've ever encountered, on any subject. If the other two books you mentioned are anywhere near that category, I'll have to read them as well.

 

I've also read the book another poster recommended: William Shirer's Rise and Fall of the Third Reich. That book had made a very favorable impression on me at the time. But the more I learned from other sources, the lower my opinion of it became. Ironically enough, one of those other sources was the aforementioned Wages of Destruction.