Rd 1, Pick #16: QB EJ Manuel - Florida St.

[Dorkington]

Love the comments from all of the GMs-in-training on this board who know precisely what would or would not have transpired in every trade-down or trade-up scenario involving all 32 teams.

 

I mean, some reasonable speculation is fine, but the "it was a panic move" crap is ridiculous.

 

Three years from now, if EJ Manuel is a top-ten QB and the Bills are a regular playoff team, will anyone really think drafting him at #16 was a "reach?" People are funny.

 

Unfortunately, there's a much better chance that we'll be replacing him within the next three years, and also looking for a new coaching staff.

 

Hopefully, for once, we get something to stick. :-/

[ChasBB]

Jim Miller talked a bit about Manuel on Sirius earlier - he felt EJ was by far the best QB and always felt EJ would be the first QB off the board. Said Manuel was head and shoulders above all of the other QBs at the Senior Bowl in terms of prep, poise, knowledge, ability to throw it, etc.

 

Can't wait to see how EJ develops!!

https://soundcloud.c...-nfl-draft-pick (sound link from Miller & Brandt when the selection happened)

Edited April 29, 2013 by ChasBB

[IDBillzFan]

Jaws was just on ESPN raving about Manuel and talking about how he is a Day 1 starter.

 

He was high on Losman, too. His opinion, and everyone else's, is useless.

 

That is to say, a number of things have to happen for Manuel to be successful, and a number things have to not happen for Manuel to be successful, and none of them involve what anyone thinks of the pick. When you have a team that is turning over management every few years, you're already years behind...say...a Colts team that loses a Hall of Famer (who, I believe, will bring Denver a title), craps a year, and then return to the playoffs with a first-year quarterback. There has to be enough Marrone, Manuel success to keep them together, while also not flipping offensive coordinators and plans and receivers and linemen.

 

It's a complete and total crapshoot now, and the only thing you can do at this point is watch and hope.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

When you have a team that is turning over management every few years, you're already years behind...say...a Colts team that loses a Hall of Famer (who, I believe, will bring Denver a title), craps a year, and then return to the playoffs with a first-year quarterback.

 

Not sure what your point is regarding the Colts. They had a new regime last year after sucking horribly the year before. So they flipped management, coaches and coordinators and were also the recipients of very good fortune in having Andrew Luck fall into their laps. I don't think you can give the Colts credit for anything that's happened the last two years.

 

As far as Manning bringing Denver a title, that's a bold prediction.

Edited April 29, 2013 by San Jose Bills Fan

[GG]

 

It's a complete and total crapshoot now, and the only thing you can do at this point is watch and hope.

 

And if that fails, you can always wager a dinner on the season's prediction.

[thebug]

He was high on Losman, too. His opinion, and everyone else's, is useless.

 

That is to say, a number of things have to happen for Manuel to be successful, and a number things have to not happen for Manuel to be successful, and none of them involve what anyone thinks of the pick. When you have a team that is turning over management every few years, you're already years behind...say...a Colts team that loses a Hall of Famer (who, I believe, will bring Denver a title), craps a year, and then return to the playoffs with a first-year quarterback. There has to be enough Marrone, Manuel success to keep them together, while also not flipping offensive coordinators and plans and receivers and linemen.

 

It's a complete and total crapshoot now, and the only thing you can do at this point is watch and hope.

 

Has there ever been anything else we could do?

[26CornerBlitz]

Peter King MMQB: http://sportsillustr...ct=uk_wr_a1#all

 

Doug Marrone did what he had to do.

Doug Marrone knows he got his head-coaching job in Buffalo in large part due to the success he had in turning around the Syracuse program. And the player who contributed the most to that success was Marrone's quarterback Ryan Nassib. We all know what happened now: Buffalo general manager Buddy Nix and Marrone (and the 33-year-old offensive coordinator he brought from Syracuse, Nathaniel Hackett, to a lesser extent) studied the quarterbacks in this spring's flawed quarterback market, knowing the Bills would likely pick one high in the draft ... and they chose Florida State's E.J. Manuel over Nassib.

 

Nix has the final personnel say in the traditional general manager/coach relationship in Buffalo. But I'm also told it wouldn't have mattered who had the last call in picking the quarterback in Buffalo: Nix and Marrone both judged Manuel the best quarterback in the crop. Buffalo traded from number eight in the first round to number 16, picked Manuel at 16, and stashed an extra second-round pick in the process.

Edited April 29, 2013 by 26CornerBlitz

[26CornerBlitz]

@buffalobills

QB @EJManuel3, OC Nathaniel Hackett excited about fit in Buffalo http://ow.ly/kwNP7

[Heitz]

https://soundcloud.c...-nfl-draft-pick (sound link from Miller & Brandt when the selection happened)

 

That was great - I missed that (though they were playing the Miller scream as a bumper on Sirius), thanks for the link.

 

You also have to like what Nix had to say:

 

 

Interesting that we DID have a chance to move back again, but Buddy didn't have the guts! At the time I would have thought about it (but I bet I drank WAY more beer than Buddy), but in hindsight, I'm glad the way it all played out. He was the guy - we got him!

[ChasBB]

That was great - I missed that (though they were playing the Miller scream as a bumper on Sirius), thanks for the link.

 

You also have to like what Nix had to say: https://soundcloud.c...ls-gm-buddy-nix

 

 

Interesting that we DID have a chance to move back again, but Buddy didn't have the guts! At the time I would have thought about it (but I bet I drank WAY more beer than Buddy), but in hindsight, I'm glad the way it all played out. He was the guy - we got him!

Nice link. From all I've read and seen, it sounds to me like at least 2 other teams, if not more, had a pretty strong interest in Manuel. I think Buddy was smart to not get greedy with more draft picks and to just hang at 16. It's just too big of a risk to lose your QB. I think Buddy played it perfectly.

[jaybee]

I'm hearing a lot of fans and analysts saying Buffalo should make EJ the day 1 starter. Is it not premature to make a statement like that? The kid needs to go thru training camp, learn the system, get reps. Same with Kolb and TJ

 

It seems obvious to me that you just cant say throw him into the fire when he hasn't even been assigned his locker yet.

 

Let the process play out. After week 4 of the preseason is when that assessment / opinion can be made.

 

Some of these radio guys are killing me today. Needed to vent a little !!

[ChasBB]

I'm hearing a lot of fans and analysts saying Buffalo should make EJ the day 1 starter. Is it not premature to make a statement like that? The kid needs to go thru training camp, learn the system, get reps. Same with Kolb and TJ

 

It seems obvious to me that you just cant say throw him into the fire when he hasn't even been assigned his locker yet.

 

Let the process play out. After week 4 of the preseason is when that assessment / opinion can be made.

 

Some of these radio guys are killing me today. Needed to vent a little !!

Actually, I saw a pic yesterday on Buffalobils.com of his new locker (http://www.buffalobi...e3-2566a824a9ec - pic 14)

 

But, point taken -- let the best man win the starting job in an open competition.

Edited April 30, 2013 by ChasBB

[Lurker]

Jaws was just on ESPN raving about Manuel and talking about how he is a Day 1 starter.

 

Hate to slag on Ron, but I'd like him to go back to bring the reserved, knowledgeable guy he used to be, rather than the 'big voice' talking head he's becoming...

[26CornerBlitz]

Hate to slag on Ron, but I'd like him to go back to bring the reserved, knowledgeable guy he used to be, rather than the 'big voice' talking head he's becoming...

 

ESPN is all about style over substance. If you don't play their game, you lose air time and eventually are looking for employment. I detest ESPN.

[jaybee]

Actually, I saw a pic yesterday on Buffalobils.com of his new locker (http://www.buffalobi...e3-2566a824a9ec - pic 14)

 

Awe crap ! I'm having a bad day. LOL !!

[Bangarang]

This kid is starting week 1. It's going to evident during camp who the better QB is and the offense will be built around EJ.

 

This franchise lacks patience. Once Kolb throws his first incomplete pass, everyone will be calling for EJ.

 

Let this kid learn from his mistakes and build on his successes. It's going to be evident very early on how much better EJ will be than Kolb or Jackson.

[DrDawkinstein]

Hate to slag on Ron, but I'd like him to go back to bring the reserved, knowledgeable guy he used to be, rather than the 'big voice' talking head he's becoming...

ESPN is all about style over substance. If you don't play their game, you lose air time and eventually are looking for employment. I detest ESPN.

 

Especially right now when he is fighting for air time with Herm Edwards, McShay, and Kiper. Lots of guys that like to talk over each other there. He'll calm down a little once the season starts.

[Donald Duck]

This kid is starting week 1. It's going to evident during camp who the better QB is and the offense will be built around EJ.

 

This franchise lacks patience. Once Kolb throws his first incomplete pass, everyone will be calling for EJ.

 

Let this kid learn from his mistakes and build on his successes. It's going to be evident very early on how much better EJ will be than Kolb or Jackson.

 

 

 

Kolb will be the starter, Travis Jackson the backup (my humble opinion)

[Canadian Bills Fan]

All I know is that I am really looking forward to watching the pre season games this year

 

CBF

[Dorkington]

Just watched all the interviews and the what not. I like this kid's personality a lot.

 

Hopefully he lives up to his highlight packages.

[Justice]

Have you ever seen a prospect in your entire life that had such a high range of differing opinions as EJ Manuel. The strange part about it is there's no middle ground when it comes to the "experts" opinions. He's either going to be great or a bust, according to them. No one saying he can be a descent or serviceable starter.

 

I wonder why that is. Is it because they feel his weaknesses can never be corrected? Is it because Buffalo has been inept for over a decade and is not a stable environment for a prospect to flourish?

 

I, for one, believe in time EJ can be one of the better QBs in the league and no worse than a productive starter in this league. I definitely see playoffs in EJ's future at the bare minimum.

 

I say "in time" only because I think it can be damaging to Manuel's development if he is hurried into the starting line-up. Having EJ learn the speed of the game at the NFL level with three rookie receivers and one second year receiver isn't the best way to get him started. Too many guys learning at the same time. Younger QBs should only play right away if they are surrounded by veterans and a system that already has been in place for at least a season or two.

 

In summation I hope the Bills don't rush EJ into the starting line-up until next year. Patience is a virtue.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NickelCity]

Manuel’s numbers tell story

 

Posted by Chris Brown on April 30, 2013 – 12:47 pm

 

 

While the world of draftniks panned the Bills pick of EJ Manuel as being far too early, Bills GM Buddy Nix and his scouting staff had all the proof they need, and if outside observers didn’t have the time to do all the travel, interviewing, tape watching, research and background checks then all you need to do is look at the numbers.

ESPN.com put together a

comprehensive set of figures related to Manuel’s play and checked how it compared to the rest of the quarterbacks in the draft class. Here are just a couple of examples that should get Bills fans excited.

He can throw the football vertically down the field

Manuel improved his completion percentage on passes of 20 yards or longer in his junior and senior seasons. In 2012, Manuel completed 49.2 percent of his passes of 20 yards or longer, the highest completion percentage of any of Scouts Inc.’s top six quarterback prospects.

He can get himself out of trouble

In 2012, Manuel completed 55.8 percent of his passes when under duress, a higher completion percentage than Geno Smith (49.3), Matt Barkley (49.3) and Landry Jones (37.1).

These are two big areas where the quarterback play had been lacking, plays under pressure and deep throws. Add in that Manuel’s completion percentage actually went up last year when he threw from outside the pocket (66.8 to 70%) and add in his 81% figure for passes on target and you can see why the Bills saw him as the best quarterback in the draft.

[Kelly the Dog]

Clicking on the link in the above ESPN article it even gets better. For those who think stats tell a lot of the story.

[26CornerBlitz]

Manuel’s numbers tell story

 

Posted by Chris Brown on April 30, 2013 – 12:47 pm

 

 

While the world of draftniks panned the Bills pick of EJ Manuel as being far too early, Bills GM Buddy Nix and his scouting staff had all the proof they need, and if outside observers didn’t have the time to do all the travel, interviewing, tape watching, research and background checks then all you need to do is look at the numbers.

 

ESPN.com put together a

comprehensive set of figures related to Manuel’s playand checked how it compared to the rest of the quarterbacks in the draft class. Here are just a couple of examples that should get Bills fans excited.

 

He can throw the football vertically down the field

Manuel improved his completion percentage on passes of 20 yards or longer in his junior and senior seasons. In 2012, Manuel completed 49.2 percent of his passes of 20 yards or longer, the highest completion percentage of any of Scouts Inc.’s top six quarterback prospects.

 

He can get himself out of trouble

In 2012, Manuel completed 55.8 percent of his passes when under duress, a higher completion percentage than Geno Smith (49.3), Matt Barkley (49.3) and Landry Jones (37.1).

 

These are two big areas where the quarterback play had been lacking, plays under pressure and deep throws. Add in that Manuel’s completion percentage actually went up last year when he threw from outside the pocket (66.8 to 70%) and add in his 81% figure for passes on target and you can see why the Bills saw him as the best quarterback in the draft.

 

 

 

Good stuff. Thanks for posting.

[Doc]

I'd like to know how his numbers compare to guys like Luck, Wilson, RGIII, and Kaep.

[eball]

Clicking on the link in the above ESPN article it even gets better. For those who think stats tell a lot of the story.

 

I like this part:

 

"In his last three seasons, 81 percent of his passes were on target (passes that were not overthrown, underthrown or wide of his receiver), comparable numbers to Smith (83.4) and Barkley (80.3)."

 

Considering Smith threw >20% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, and accuracy is considered to be Barkley's main strength, these numbers bode well.

[Kelly the Dog]

I like this part:

 

"In his last three seasons, 81 percent of his passes were on target (passes that were not overthrown, underthrown or wide of his receiver), comparable numbers to Smith (83.4) and Barkley (80.3)."

 

Considering Smith threw >20% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, and accuracy is considered to be Barkley's main strength, these numbers bode well.

Not to mention that Barkley was throwing to Marqis Lee and Robert Woods who often got wide open.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

But Todd McShay said he's inaccurate.

[KeisterHollow]

Another thing to like a lot - Manuel went into the senior bowl on an even footing with all the other QB's. He was coached by NFL coaches, and had NFL talent on the field. When he got his chance to play how did he do? That is a big factor, I think, in evaluating him. He was plenty successful at the Senior Bowl. Give him time to learn a system thoroughly, to get in sink with his recievers, and I really can't see where he'll fail. The only thing about him that might cause him to fail is his ability to read a defense, react to it in game-speed, and make the right decisions.

 

Now, the Bills are no dummy's. They've had the right QB's in the past drafts pegged (they liked Newton, Luck, Griffin, and Ponder). They know Manuel can pass it anywhere, they know he's accurate enough already, they know he can run. They would have been doing everything in their power to assess his ability to learn and read defenses. By all accounts they were very impressed with his skills in that regard, and compare him favorably to any of the QB's they met with. Now, that tells me we've go nothing to worry about.

 

For every bad play he makes, I'm guessing he'll make two or three times as many good plays that will leave us Bills fans happy that we didn't miss on this one, too.

[Kelly the Dog]

I actually believe that all players at all positions, have to somewhat completely relearn their positions when they go from college to the pros. The speed, strength, complexity, terminology, game-planning, nastiness, etc, is all different. The better players pick it up quicker because of their physical and/or mental capacity. It's even more true of QBs, which is why there are not nearly as many good ones as other positions.

 

They also need good to great coaching, to be protected, and to be surrounded by good skill players.

 

Manuel has more tools than any of them, has the size and leadership, and has the mental capacity, at least the Bills think so. Whether it all comes together for him or not is a big question mark. But RGIII and Wilson and Kaep for example, all picked it up pretty quick... Barkley and Nassib are going to have to relearn as much as Manuel.

 

I like Marrone and especially Hackett much, much more now than when they were hired and I knew little about them. I think Manuel is going to be coached well.

 

 

This is going to be either very fun, or very frustrating to watch.

[Doc]

Not to mention that Barkley was throwing to Marqis Lee and Robert Woods who often got wide open.

What's even better is that Manuel will be throwing to the aforementioned Woods.

 

And what I got from the numbers, besides debunking the "he's inaccurate" claim, is that he should probably scramble more often. He's did it about twice a game and had a 35.7% conversion rate.

[BEAST MODE BABY!]

Clicking on the link in the above ESPN article it even gets better. For those who think stats tell a lot of the story.

 

Here are some 2012 stats for you:

 

EJ Manuel's COMP% of passes longer than 20 yds was 49.2%. Fitzpatrick's COMP% was 22.9%. Fitz was 0-4 on plays of 41 yds or longer or 0%.

[Wayne Cubed]

What's even better is that Manuel will be throwing to the aforementioned Woods.

 

And what I got from the numbers, besides debunking the "he's inaccurate" claim, is that he should probably scramble more often. He's did it about twice a game and had a 35.7% conversion rate.

 

Reminds me of another QB who is great outside the pocket... I think he signed a massive deal, biggest one ever. Some guy named Rodgers.

[Wagner]

Great pick.......

 

[Dorkington]

My realistic expectation of EJ is mid level guy, simply because he's on the Bills. I don't think he's going to be a flame out bust, he's got too much talent for that. But I also don't think he has the stable operating environment he'd need to become great... at least yet. Time will tell, though.

[Fan in San Diego]

It's going to be a very fun year watching the Bills. Can't wait !

[thebandit27]

Another Brad Smith,

 

 

this BS is getting old

 

Weren't you the guy that said Brad Smith could be a franchise QB in Gailey's offense?

 

"Jay pee lahs-man".

 

I thought you didn't ever trash Manuel?

 

E Manuel meaning "God is with us"

 

Amen

 

Judging by the laughs I've heard from Patriots fans this morning, I'd say our AFC East foes are thrilled with this pick. Really.

 

Keep drinking the Kool Aid y'all. Bless your hearts.

 

Pats fans: the model of personnel judging acumen.

 

Well, enjoy the Bills chatter. This will be the last this team is relevant this season lol

 

Indeed, no chance of success...ever!

 

Yes sir...don't understand all of the people whining on here about this pick..

 

6'5 qbs w wheels and a cannon? What's not to like ? The kids sharp, love his attitude.

 

What's not to like? Everything...he's....ya know...he's...Nix sucks!

 

OK since Senior Bowl doesn't count as a big game, even though there's a direct proportion of playing well in that game and moving up a magnitude in the draft, let's look at other big games.

 

You're dismissing the Orange Bowl because of inferior opponent. And he was bad against Florida in 2012. Ok. Yet in his other three bowl games, FSU was not the clear favorite. They beat real and big ticket teams. How did he match up against Geno in bowl games? And as for Florida teams, he went 5-1 against Gators and Canes in his career .

 

It only matters if it supports my point...if it doesn't, then I'm going to disregard it...then I can feel superior in my justification for being angry all the time.

 

It was clearly a panic move. Last year Buddy blew it by not selecting a QB and this year he was desperate. They picked a couple players a round too early. The draft is not just about selecting players, but managing where and when you select them. How soon will Nix be leaving?

 

I bet you'd say the same thing if Buffalo drafted Russell Wilson at No. 10 overall last year. Any team that would've done so would've been chastised for panicking...and everyone that said so would be wrong.

 

How about we wait and see how it plays out before we piss ourselves?

[Donald Duck]

no bandit, I did not say Brad Smith was a franchise QB

 

 

and my Manuel comment was BS, which I did go on to admit afterwards

Edited April 30, 2013 by dog14787

[Nanker]

Have you ever seen a prospect in your entire life that had such a high range of differing opinions as EJ Manuel. The strange part about it is there's no middle ground when it comes to the "experts" opinions. He's either going to be great or a bust, according to them. No one saying he can be a descent or serviceable starter.

 

I wonder why that is. Is it because they feel his weaknesses can never be corrected? Is it because Buffalo has been inept for over a decade and is not a stable environment for a prospect to flourish?

 

I, for one, believe in time EJ can be one of the better QBs in the league and no worse than a productive starter in this league. I definitely see playoffs in EJ's future at the bare minimum.

 

I say "in time" only because I think it can be damaging to Manuel's development if he is hurried into the starting line-up. Having EJ learn the speed of the game at the NFL level with three rookie receivers and one second year receiver isn't the best way to get him started. Too many guys learning at the same time. Younger QBs should only play right away if they are surrounded by veterans and a system that already has been in place for at least a season or two.

 

In summation I hope the Bills don't rush EJ into the starting line-up until next year. Patience is a virtue.

 

This.

Because the media is lazy.

+1.

QFT

[26CornerBlitz]

4/30 John Murphy interview with Darnell Moore: Murph interviews EJ Manuel's former HS coach Darnell Moore

 

http://itmpodcasttrack.com/podcast_track.mp3?iTunes=play&stationId=2858&episodeId=6357329&url=http://podcast.wgr550.com/wgr2/3975858.mp3?rhidownloadlink=true