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Mel Kiper's updated Big Board 1/9/13


papazoid

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Where is Geno?

Wasn't he previously around 12?

 

Geno Smith was the first QB at #23 in the last Kiper big board.

 

Only in the Stadium Wall

 

Kiper has Nassib as his #5 Senior QB

 

Glennon is the only QB in his first round big board.

 

I'd take Ogletree at 8. Nassib in the 2nd

 

Yeah - I think that's kind of the ideal fit.

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If after a thorough evaluation the organization believes that Tyler Wilson, Glennon, Barkley etc are the best qb cadidates who are capable of being a starter in this league then why wait and take the risk of losing their favored qb prospect? The mistake Buddy has made in the past is that he concentrated on player rankings rather than considering position importance. He has admitted that if you are targeting a qb you like that it is smarter to pull the trigger earlier rather than later.

 

Whatever other position needs the Bills have (LB, WR) can be adequately filled with the next two rounds. Also, free agency can fill some holes, especially at the LB position. But without a doubt it is going to be difficult getting a quality qb from the free agent market.

 

In two years what position selection is this year's draft will have the greatest impact for the team? Without question it is going to be the qb selection. If that is the case then why not guarantee that you will be in position to take the highest rated qb left on your board with your early first round selection. In this case it is smarter drafting a qb a little bit early than it is risking losing your preferred qb if you wait.

 

There is a lot of speculation that the Bills would consider Nassib in the second round. The other teams know that the Bills staff have had a relationship with him at Syracuse. If some other teams also find him an appealing prospect they might leap ahead of us and snatch him from our grasp. It's happened before, and it could happen again. By no means am I suggesting taking Nassib with our early first round pick because his talent level doesn't warrant taking him at that point. But if there is a qb on the board who has a first round grade and that the Bills like then it behooves them to make the selection.

I suppose you're right. I just don't trust Buddy to chose the right QB.

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Process is still early but it still looks like a weak draft class for QBs like it was in 2007. The Bills are committed to draft a QB which limits the opportunity to move in the draft without having to giving up alot. Glennon is my choice because of his physical upside and production.

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Don't be surprised if Nassib is available in the 2nd round. It seems like the Bills are the only team that holds him that high. DE or LB in the first round is the right pick. Need to stop the run first before we can think offense.

I suspect that if the Bills do not take a QB at number 8, a distinct possibility, they will need to trade back into the first round to assure themselves of getting the guy they want. They cannot sit back passively and wait for a QB to fall to them. Too many teams with QB needs ahead of them. In all likelihood, but the time of the draft, you will see QB prospects coming up the board. If they escape the top 8 without their target getting picked, they damn well better be agressive on moving up, perhaps way up. I have no problem with them taking a QB they want at the expense of more draft choices.

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#16 - Johnathan Hankins * - DT

#17 - Tyler Eifert * - TE

#18 - Ezekiel Ansah - DE

#19 - Dion Jordan - DE

#20 - John Jenkins - DT

#21 - Kenny Vaccaro - S

#22 - Mike Glennon - QB

#23 - Sam Montgomery * - DE

#24 - Sharrif Floyd * - DT

#25 - Alex Okafor - DE

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I suppose you're right. I just don't trust Buddy to chose the right QB.

]

 

You bring up a very intriquing question: Who is going to have the final say on the picks? There is no doubt that it is a collaborative effort. But if there are disagreements who will have the final say? After this draft I suspect that Whaley will be in charge, but I can't say for sure in this draft.

 

A while back on WGR Nix was asked if he liked any qbs in last year's draft. He said yes, but refused to name the qbs. Some people speculated that he was referring to Russell Wilson and Cousins. He later stated that if you like a particular qb it is better to draft that qb prospect a round earlier than later. I got the impression from his comments that he regretted not pulling the trigger sooner on one of these qbs.

 

Two years ago Nix had an opportunity to draft Kaepernick or Dalton in the second round. Instead, he selected Aaron Williams, a CB. Last year Nix was in position to draft either Wilson or Cousins in the third round. Instead, he moved up in the round to select T.J. Graham. How much differently would we be juding Nix's draft performances if he already had a credible qb prospect on the roster?

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Why the hell would we take yet another 4-3 DE when we have Anderson, M Williams and Moore? we have much bigger problems to fill.

 

ANALYTICS Kiper! ANALYTICS!

 

But seriously I would much rather be looking at Ogletree or Teo.

 

Big board, not mock.

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in no way making any comparisons...my dad suffered it for years, had a procedure done last year to alleviate the pain and discomfort...took a couple months off of golf but is now back to links pain free and difference was unreal...at 72 he's painfree for the first time in years....granted he's not going up against football players...

 

its a real tough spot. can you imagine being so physically gifted as to play at that level but have a condition that leaves you so vulnerable any time youre hit.

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I suspect that if the Bills do not take a QB at number 8, a distinct possibility, they will need to trade back into the first round to assure themselves of getting the guy they want. They cannot sit back passively and wait for a QB to fall to them. Too many teams with QB needs ahead of them. In all likelihood, but the time of the draft, you will see QB prospects coming up the board. If they escape the top 8 without their target getting picked, they damn well better be agressive on moving up, perhaps way up. I have no problem with them taking a QB they want at the expense of more draft choices.

 

The problem with your scenario is that other teams also have the capability of maneuvering up to draft ahead of us to take a qb we covet. That is why I prefer taking the plunge on a qb selection with our first pick. If you review last year's draft you will notice that qbs such as Tannehill and Locker were taken higher than their player rankings. That same process will happen again this year.

Edited by JohnC
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]

 

You bring up a very intriquing question: Who is going to have the final say on the picks? There is no doubt that it is a collaborative effort. But if there are disagreements who will have the final say? After this draft I suspect that Whaley will be in charge, but I can't say for sure in this draft.

 

A while back on WGR Nix was asked if he liked any qbs in last year's draft. He said yes, but refused to name the qbs. Some people speculated that he was referring to Russell Wilson and Cousins. He later stated that if you like a particular qb it is better to draft that qb prospect a round earlier than later. I got the impression from his comments that he regretted not pulling the trigger sooner on one of these qbs.

 

Two years ago Nix had an opportunity to draft Kaepernick or Dalton in the second round. Instead, he selected Aaron Williams, a CB. Last year Nix was in position to draft either Wilson or Cousins in the third round. Instead, he moved up in the round to select T.J. Graham. How much differently would we be juding Nix's draft performances if he already had a credible qb prospect on the roster?

 

 

Buddy Nix has FINAL say for this draft......if and when whaley becomes GM remains to be played out....

 

having said that, its very possible that Russ Brandon wants a QB and has steared the "team" consensus in that direction. buddy has already tipped their hand....they are drafting a QB early.

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The problem with your scenario is that other teams also have the capability of maneuvering up to draft ahead of us to take a qb we covet. That is why I prefer taking the plunge on a qb selection with our first pick. If you review last year's draft you will notice that qbs such as Tannehill and Locker were taken higher than their player rankings. That same process will happen again this year.

I agree. My main point is that Bills cannot afford to be passive even if it means taking the guy they want way ahead of "projections". I would be fine with taking QB at 8 if that is they guy they think they need, Mel Kiper and Todd McShay be damned. They need to get the guy they want.

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It will depend on which way Ogletree approaches the combine. Would love to see him show up around 250 and still have the same speed and agility. Then he would easily be the best option for inside backer for the Bills.

He is a converted SS. Kid can cover as good as any LB coming out. Only knock is he has not been playing LB forever and thus is learning how to run stuff.

I would love for the Bills to take him in the first. Not to many guys come along that are 3 down LB's. meaning you can leave them in for run or pass.

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I would happily take the following at #8.

 

 

#1- Jarvis Jones * - OLB

#2- Damontre Moore * - DE

#4- Star Lotulelei - DT

#5- Chance Warmack - G

#6- Manti Te'o - LB

#8- Barkevious Mingo * - DE

#10- Dee Milliner * - CB

This is a good list. I'd add Ogletree.

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Here's my first 32. Mine, not DraftTek's. #8-17 look pretty good.

1 Luke Joeckel (Jr.decl)
2 Jarvis Jones (Jr.,decl)
3 Bjoern Werner (Jr.,decl)
4 Star Lotulelei
5 Manti Teo
6 Dee Milliner
7 Damontre Moore (Jr., decl)
8 Keenan Allen (Jr., decl)
9 Geno Smith
10 Johnthan Banks
11 Dion Jordan
12 Ezekiel Ansah
13 Alec Ogletree (Jr.,decl)
14 Chance Warmack
15 Sheldon Richardson (Jr.,decl)
16 Kevin Minter (Jr.,decl)
17 Terrance Williams
18 Eric Fisher
19 Alex Okafor
20 Johnathan Hankins (Jr.,decl)
21 Barkevious Mingo
22 Montee Ball
23 Tyler Wilson
24 Matt Barkley
25 Jonathan Cooper
26 Barrett Jones
27 Jonathan Jenkins
28 Eric Reid (Jr.,decl)
29 Sam Montgomery
30 Jesse Williams
31 Sharrif Floyd (Jr.,decl)
32 Kenny Vaccaro

Edited by Astrobot
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did you not see his last performance?

this. It was the same as Manti Teo. Overhyped and ridiculously over rated all year for no reason. Neither will have a good pro career. Mark it down in stone and put it over their graves. It's a done deal.
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2013 NFL DRAFT ORDER

 

1. Chiefs

2. Jaguars

3. Raiders

4. Eagles

5. Lions

6. Browns

7. Cardinals

8. Bills

9. Jets

10. Titans

11. Chargers

12. Dolphins

13. Buccaneers

14. Panthers

15. Saints

16. Rams

17. Steelers

18. Cowboys

19. Giants

20. Bears

21. Bengals

22. Rams (from Redskins)

23. Vikings

24. Colts

 

SCOUTS INC.'S TOP 32

 

Player Pos. School Grade 1. Star Lotulelei DT Utah 96 2. Damontre Moore* DE Texas A&M 96 3. Chance Warmack G Alabama 96 4. Luke Joeckel* OT Texas A&M 96 5. Barkevious Mingo* DE LSU 95 6. Jarvis Jones* OLB Georgia 95 7. Manti Te'o ILB Notre Dame 95 8. Bjoern Werner* DE Florida St 95 9. Johnathan Hankins* DT Ohio State 95 10. Sylvester Williams DT N. Carolina 94 11. Dee Milliner* CB Alabama 94 12. Dion Jordan DE Oregon 94 13. Taylor Lewan* OT Michigan 94 14. Jonathan Cooper OG N. Carolina 94 15. Alec Ogletree* ILB Georgia 93 16. Kenny Vaccaro S Texas 93 17. Johnathan Jenkins DT Georgia 93 18. Sam Montgomery* DE LSU 93 19. Ezekiel Ansah* DE BYU 92 20. Eric Fisher OT C. Michigan 92 21. Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri 92 22. Johnthan Banks CB Miss. St. 91 23. Geno Smith QB W. Virginia 91 24. Shariff Floyd* DT Florida 91 25. Justin Hunter* WR Tennessee 90 26. Corey Lemonier* DE Auburn 91 27. Kawann Short DT Purdue 90 28. Keenan Allen* WR California 89 29. Zach Ertz* TE Stanford 89 30. C. Patterson* WR Tennessee 88 31. Tyler Eifert* TE Notre Dame 88 32. Matt Barkley QB USC 88

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Buddy Nix has FINAL say for this draft......if and when whaley becomes GM remains to be played out....

 

having said that, its very possible that Russ Brandon wants a QB and has steared the "team" consensus in that direction. buddy has already tipped their hand....they are drafting a QB early.

 

I'm not saying you are wrong with respect to Nix having the final say on draft selections. But I have some "suspicions" that Whaley now has more authority. The Marrone hire seems more like a Brandon/Whaley hire and not a Nix type of hire. This is merely my own guess.

 

Whether Nix tipped his hand about an early qb selection is moot. The need is so blatantly obvious that this is a poker game in which all the cards are showing to everyone in and out of the game. At this point there is no need to be coy.

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Marrone will have the first crack at the draft picks this draft. If he thinks they need a QB, then he will get whoever he wants. If he feels he can wait until later rounds and draft an early WR or LB and draft a QB later on then it will be so.

 

Just like Cjan had his "Waterbug" pick, Marrone will have any position or player he wants.

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I hope they do not take any of these QBs with the 8th pick. I would rather see them use the 8th pick based on their board (presuming no QB in the top 8 of their board) and use the second pick on a QB (either with the pick itself or packaging it to trade up) or trading the 8th pick for a later pick in the 1st round plus other picks.

 

At this point in time, I do not think there is a QB worth the 8th pick. We can use that pick for an impact player without having to reach. Let's not be this year's version of the Titans (who reached with the 8th and took Locker).

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I agree. My main point is that Bills cannot afford to be passive even if it means taking the guy they want way ahead of "projections". I would be fine with taking QB at 8 if that is they guy they think they need, Mel Kiper and Todd McShay be damned. They need to get the guy they want.

 

After the last two drafts, I don't think moving up 1 round to get a QB you like is going to be viewed as a big deal even by the draftniks.

 

Noone saw Ponder going when he did, and Tannehill was considered somewhat reachy. There are a few more that I am forgetting.

 

My point is - the word is out there that you have to "reach" a bit to get the QB you want - which by my defintion isn't really reaching at all. It really just means the positional value of QB's has gone up even higher than it has been. All the success of recent youngsters only reinforces that.

Edited by BobChalmers
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this is a real possibility at #8.....Pettine's defense relies on one on one coverage by the corners.....

 

Hehe - 'tis true.

 

Pettine's defense is closest in style to Greggo Williams' scheme - modified old Bears "46".

 

Remember how the Bills had to go out and get Nate Clements and Antoine Winfield to play in his scheme? The defense leaves them out on an island a lot.

 

Gilmore's fine, but they need another.

 

 

Haivng said that, they are SO desperate at LB I'd rather hold off a year at CB and see if Brooks can step up.

Edited by BobChalmers
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best available player in 1st round......

 

use your 2nd & 3rd round picks to trade back into the late first round to get ahead of all those early teams who will use their 2nd round pick on a QB.

Edited by papazoid
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How good is Barrett Jones? Has his stock fallen because of his injury?

 

Its just one of those positions. The Pounceys, Mack and Wood were all highly regarded coming out of college, but none of them went higher than what, 17th or 18th? Just shooting from the hip with that #. I know Mack and Wood both went in the 20s. I cant remember where the Pounceys went off hand, but I had to guess the Steelers pick was likely in the mid20s and the Dolphins in the mid teens...

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