Dr. K Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Regarding that fourth down play by the Bills at the end of the game, where they drew the defensive lineman off-sides. I'm glad it worked, but I think that happening was unlikely and the Bills were lucky. Here's my question: Assuming the Bills did not try that ruse, then what should they have done? I was watching the game with friends, and some of them were adamant that the Bills should punt it and put the game on the shoulders of the defense. I thought that, given the Bills had not stopped the Eagles other than by turnover (the Bills made them punt only once in the second half, Gailey should have had them go for the first down, try to make the few inches they needed, which would effectively end the game. It would be a risk, since if the Bills didn't make it they would give up the ball at midfield, but I thought it was a better option than putting the game on the shoulders of an exhausted defense. Make six inches and win the game, not make it and take your chances. What did you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills44 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I wanted them to go for it, as I wanted them to go for it on 4th and 5 from the PHI 37 earlier in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Regarding that fourth down play by the Bills at the end of the game, where they drew the defensive lineman off-sides. I'm glad it worked, but I think that happening was unlikely and the Bills were lucky. Here's my question: Assuming the Bills did not try that ruse, then what should they have done? I was watching the game with friends, and some of them were adamant that the Bills should punt it and put the game on the shoulders of the defense. I thought that, given the Bills had not stopped the Eagles other than by turnover (the Bills made them punt only once in the second half, Gailey should have had them go for the first down, try to make the few inches they needed, which would effectively end the game. It would be a risk, since if the Bills didn't make it they would give up the ball at midfield, but I thought it was a better option than putting the game on the shoulders of an exhausted defense. Make six inches and win the game, not make it and take your chances. What did you think? Based on expected values, the best play was shoving it down their throats. I believe QB sneaks from that distance have ~90% chance of success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tjohnusa Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I don't know the 4th down stats but they should have been able to convert.....at the time of the play the field position and time left could have been a disaster if they didn't convert...therefor it was a well called play...i don't think they would have went for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Regarding that fourth down play by the Bills at the end of the game, where they drew the defensive lineman off-sides. I'm glad it worked, but I think that happening was unlikely and the Bills were lucky. Here's my question: Assuming the Bills did not try that ruse, then what should they have done? I was watching the game with friends, and some of them were adamant that the Bills should punt it and put the game on the shoulders of the defense. I thought that, given the Bills had not stopped the Eagles other than by turnover (the Bills made them punt only once in the second half, Gailey should have had them go for the first down, try to make the few inches they needed, which would effectively end the game. It would be a risk, since if the Bills didn't make it they would give up the ball at midfield, but I thought it was a better option than putting the game on the shoulders of an exhausted defense. Make six inches and win the game, not make it and take your chances. What did you think? I was of the opinion... do exactly what they did; trying to get them to jump. Then at 1-2 seconds on the play clock hike and QB sneak for the 6 inches. I really didn't want our defense back on the field at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 They were going to punt it. I think it's one of those 51-49 things, it's not a no brainer either way. I understand both points of view. I think I probably would have run a QB sneak, especially with a 7 point lead where all they could do is tie the game (they wouldn't go for 2). I think what Gailey did was actually very smart. Fred Jackson after the game said the play was designed to be a run if the Eagles were giving us a certain look, but just the try to draw them offsides if the Eagles gave us a different look. At the line, they were in the don't run the play look. So the ball was not going to be snapped. That's a very reasonable thing to call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpperDeck Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 (edited) I was calling for us to go for it right away. There was 1:23 left. That was plenty of time for Philly to mount a drive. They had been moving the ball well on us the previous few series so I think giving them the ball was taking a chance. If we don't make the first, they get the ball near the 50 and possibly leave us time for a field goal try if they do score. But I think we would've made it anyway on a QB sneak. Edited October 10, 2011 by UpperDeck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San-O Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Get 1 foot, end the game. Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I was of the opinion... do exactly what they did; trying to get them to jump. Then at 1-2 seconds on the play clock hike and QB sneak for the 6 inches. I really didn't want our defense back on the field at that point. I was of the opinion... do exactly what they did; trying to get them to jump. But this is where I disagree with you. If they don't jump, I let the clock expire, take the penalty, and punt. The Eagles O was just as unreliable as the Bills D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I wanted them to go for it, as I wanted them to go for it on 4th and 5 from the PHI 37 earlier in the game. I would have settled for a FG try there. Considering how bad the D was playing I would have gone for it at the end. Put in Brad Smith and get that yard. A punt would have been asking to lose. PTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffOrange Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I think it's a close decision. If they had only needed a FG I like going for it more. But you really need to have a terrible defensive breakdown to give up an 80 yard TD drive in a minute when they have no time outs. So I wouldn't really get on Gailey either way. Punting on their 37 was definitely dumb however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Get 1 foot, end the game. Done. Agree. I thought it was actually mind-boggling that they were thinking of punting it away to an Eagles offense that was having its way in the second half. Just go for it, and win the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San-O Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Agree. I thought it was actually mind-boggling that they were thinking of punting it away to an Eagles offense that was having its way in the second half. Just go for it, and win the game. Normally I would almost always say from that position on the field, punt the ball and make the other O move the ball all the way down the field and score a TD. Lots of things can happen, however tha Bills couldn't stop the Eagles O. I was trusting the Bills O to get a foot much more than I was trusting the Bills D to stop a TD drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I wanted the Bills to go for it - just a simple QB sneak - but the Bills had no intention of snapping the ball. Absolutely unbelievable/unforgivable that Parker jumped offsides, because there was absolutely no way in hell that ball was ever going to be snapped. Fitz must have some sort of mysterious, hypnotic power - it's the only possible explanation for what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_red Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Agree. I thought it was actually mind-boggling that they were thinking of punting it away to an Eagles offense that was having its way in the second half. Just go for it, and win the game. agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Fitz must have some sort of mysterious, hypnotic power. Fitzmagic is a Jedi master. PTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Fitzmagic is a Jedi master. Ryan Fitapatrick doesn't have midichlorians in his blood Jedi Knights have Ryan Fitzpatrick in their blood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iinii Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Regarding that fourth down play by the Bills at the end of the game, where they drew the defensive lineman off-sides. I'm glad it worked, but I think that happening was unlikely and the Bills were lucky. Here's my question: Assuming the Bills did not try that ruse, then what should they have done? I was watching the game with friends, and some of them were adamant that the Bills should punt it and put the game on the shoulders of the defense. I thought that, given the Bills had not stopped the Eagles other than by turnover (the Bills made them punt only once in the second half, Gailey should have had them go for the first down, try to make the few inches they needed, which would effectively end the game. It would be a risk, since if the Bills didn't make it they would give up the ball at midfield, but I thought it was a better option than putting the game on the shoulders of an exhausted defense. Make six inches and win the game, not make it and take your chances. What did you think? I wanted them to just go for it! But I am just a kool-aid sipping fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in Chicago Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 What did you think? Football is so much more than just out-muscling the other guys on every play. It is strategy and the hard count by Fitz, at home, was masterful. I was watching the count and thinking I wish someone would jump offsides and they did. The point in this series as with the last series in the game against the Pats* was to try your damndest not to give the ball to the other team in the waning moments of the game. I applaud gailey for bringing that killer instinct and sneakiness to the Bills. I bet the other coaches are now worried that they have to beat more than just the 11 men on the field at any given time. I think luck had nothing to do with that play but strategy and discipline had more of an effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boludo Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Eagles D is weak, and their offense was hot. I think the Bills had a variety of ways they could have gotten half a yard - Fitz sneak, Smith wildcat, Jackson run, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExWNYer Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Normally I would almost always say from that position on the field, punt the ball and make the other O move the ball all the way down the field and score a TD. Lots of things can happen, however tha Bills couldn't stop the Eagles O. I was trusting the Bills O to get a foot much more than I was trusting the Bills D to stop a TD drive. I wanted the Bills to go for it - just a simple QB sneak - but the Bills had no intention of snapping the ball. Absolutely unbelievable/unforgivable that Parker jumped offsides, because there was absolutely no way in hell that ball was ever going to be snapped. Fitz must have some sort of mysterious, hypnotic power - it's the only possible explanation for what happened. Agreed. I wanted them to go for it. If you don't trust your offensive line to pick up a few inches on a QB sneak on your home field, then you don't deserve to win. If you get it, game over. If you don't, worse case scenario is that you're headed to overtime. Unbelievable that they got Philly to jump offsides. Had they not jumped, I'd have called timeout with a second to go on the play clock and then still run a QB sneak. Either way, it's a moot point and, thankfully, we didn't have to find out what may or may not have transpired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in San Diego Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I was of the opinion... do exactly what they did; trying to get them to jump. Then at 1-2 seconds on the play clock hike and QB sneak for the 6 inches. I really didn't want our defense back on the field at that point. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vincec Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I say go for it because you give yourself two chances to win the game: 1) get the first down and win in addition to 2) stop the Eagles and win. If you punt then it's just #2. If the Eagles needed a field goal, they you probably have to punt b/c you can't give them the ball near midfield but with them having to get the TD and time not really a factor (Eagles have 3 TOs), I would take a shot to see if my offense can win it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deep2evans Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME. if we punted that ball, appliances were going to be pulled out of the wall. all we needed was for fitz to fall forward to seal the deal. thankfully it never got to that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Someone asked Chan in his presser if he would've run the ball, and he said, "I'll nevcr tell." It got a good chuckle from the media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob in STL Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I would have settled for a FG try there. Considering how bad the D was playing I would have gone for it at the end. Put in Brad Smith and get that yard. A punt would have been asking to lose. PTR FG? I would have ran another quick count QB sneak. Wood was a monster and Fitz is reliable and tough enough to get the job done. Since you are at the mercy if the zebras spotting the ball, you really need to have a positive push on the LOS. Wood and Urbik could get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 You go for it there. Gain the 6 inches needed. Run a QB sneak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
folz Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I was of the opinion... do exactly what they did; trying to get them to jump. Then at 1-2 seconds on the play clock hike and QB sneak for the 6 inches. I really didn't want our defense back on the field at that point. I think Dan hit it on the head. I really felt the same way, that they were going to go for it, which is what actually made Philly jump. They were going to hard count a few times to see if they could get them to jump and if they didn't (knowing Philly would be in freeze mode), surprise them by actually hiking the ball and running the QB sneak. I really think that's what would have happened had Philly not jumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RkFast Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I guess Im just too conservative but I was thinking a punt would be the way to go. I would not want to risk giving Vick a shorter field to work on. Tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MRM33064 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Try to draw them off and, if that doesn't work, it's: destiny 100% in our hands, snap count on our call, 1 yard to end the game, a few feet to take this team to 4-1. Put it away. I almost can't believe anyone would even consider punting there. Someone must have the expected value calculations associated with the various decisions/potential outcomes in that situation (i.e. field position, time on clock, down/distance), but the numbers have to be ridiculously slanted toward going for it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I also think they would have ran the sneak at the last second, if they didn't jump. Kind of like Fitz pulling away with about 3 seconds then quickly getting back under center and sneaking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dancing_joker Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 They punted from the Eagles 38 yd line earlier in the game. They would have punted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvermike Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 A QB sneak on 4th and inches is one of the highest percentage plays in the game. It's successful what, 90% of the time? More? When that's all you have to do to win the game, you do it. Literally: the easiest play in the game guarantees a victory. Go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BILLS_ROC Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Put Michael Jasper in at center and run it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 They punted from the Eagles 38 yd line earlier in the game. They would have punted. Absolutely. The Bills most definitely would have taken the delay of game penalty and punted, pinning the Eagles deep and counting on the D (and the fact that Philly had no time-outs left) to hold them and run out the clock. That's why, IMHO, it's so shocking that Reid didn't just tell his entire D, "Don't freakin' MOVE, no matter what!" No way in hell the Bills were ever going to snap the ball. To get Parker to bite like that, Fitz must be 'The Mentalist' or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PO'14 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I HATE THE PATRIOTS, but ask me what Belicheat would have done in that situation......HE WOULD HAVE RAMMED IT DOWN THE DEFENSES THROAT! We need that mentality. NO FEAR! Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jkrules Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I thought Gailey made the right call and had Philly not jumped offside he would have QB sneaked it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 my guess is they would have punted, and had zero intentions of going for it. if the eagles hadnt jumped we would have taken the 5yrds and given moorman a little more room to punt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 If we had gone for it and not made it, you gave Philly good field position and momentum. The smart play was to try to draw them offsides and then punt it deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I wanted them to go for it, as I wanted them to go for it on 4th and 5 from the PHI 37 earlier in the game. Agree on both points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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