This might be why Bills fan's are concerned despite the Bills 5-2 record. There will be math.

[Chaos]

Its not likely many people are familar with graph network analysis or page rank.  But these are standard statisitical systems that are often applied to sports as ranking or predictive model.   The base formula is standard and I have not altered it in any way.  The results below are what are generated  by the formulas.  I have validate the specific math between the Eagle, Chiers, Bills and Ravens, because they do not seem intuitive. But based on this statistical model, they are accurate.  Here is the math:

The table is the results of this statistic applied to the 2025 NFL season so far.  As a side note. The Chargers at -460 are a compelling, if boring value vs. the Titans this weekend.  And the Bronco's seem tremendously underpriced as an outright underdog in a game they should be a significant favorite at  with the Texans.  Past is not prologue.  But this statistic has a pretty good track record. With tweaks (which I have not done) this can be made to identify the winners accurately (outright winners, not against the spread) about 70% of the time. 
 

essentially the issue is we do not have a single win against a team that is not a bottom dweller, and lost to two mediocre teams. 

 

[Thurman#1]

Interesting. Thanks for posting it.

 

Worth noting that DVOA, which also adjusts for strength of opponent, has the Bills at #9 right now.

[RyanC883]

haven't played a great "complementary" (whatever that means) game yet.  Allen is awful with the deep pass, because there is no one to pass it to.  Bean has continued to blunder.  

[strive_for_five_guy]

Worth noting, Ravens wouldn’t be 2-5 if Lamar had played in every game.

[Fleezoid]

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

10 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Its not likely many people are familar with graph network analysis or page rank.  But these are standard statisitical systems that are often applied to sports as ranking or predictive model.   The base formula is standard and I have not altered it in any way.  The results below are what are generated  by the formulas.  I have validate the specific math between the Eagle, Chiers, Bills and Ravens, because they do not seem intuitive. But based on this statistical model, they are accurate.  Here is the math:

The table is the results of this statistic applied to the 2025 NFL season so far.  As a side note. The Chargers at -460 are a compelling, if boring value vs. the Titans this weekend.  And the Bronco's seem tremendously underpriced as an outright underdog in a game they should be a significant favorite at  with the Texans.  Past is not prologue.  But this statistic has a pretty good track record. With tweaks (which I have not done) this can be made to identify the winners accurately (outright winners, not against the spread) about 70% of the time. 
 

essentially the issue is we do not have a single win against a team that is not a bottom dweller, and lost to two mediocre teams. 

 

The Ravens on opening weekend at full health is a solid win. 

[julian]

[ProcessTruster]

Bills will be fine. 

Roster starting to get healthy at the right time. 

Most of the pieces are back and the rest are on the way. 

Losing Oliver is not that big a deal.  

[thenorthremembers]

Just kind of a moving forward thing because I see it over and over again, Our GMs last name is BEANE with an E at the end.

 

If you're going to roast him at the very least spell his name right.  

[dave mcbride]

30 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

The Ravens on opening weekend at full health is a solid win. 

More than solid - that healthy Ravens team was a top-five team in the NFL. They were decimated by injuries in subsequent games to the point where it became tragicomic.

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Just kind of a moving forward thing because I see it over and over again, Our GMs last name is BEANE with an E at the end.

 

If you're going to roast him at the very least spell his name right.  

who are you talking too?

[Big Turk]

32 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

The Ravens on opening weekend at full health is a solid win. 

 

Agree...acting like the Ravens would be 2-5 with a healthy Lamar is asinine.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Me, after reading analysis:

 

[Chaos]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

More than solid - that healthy Ravens team was a top-five team in the NFL. They were decimated by injuries in subsequent games to the point where it became tragicomic.

Week one, the Bills Ravens and Chiefs were universally considered the top three teams in the AFC.   Then the games started, and here we are. 

Just now, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Me, after reading analysis:

 

He clearly did not account for the give in the hay bale.  If he had been on something solid, would have made it.

 

[BigDingus]

How you win matters, and who you win against matters. 

 

If they beat the Chiefs, it at least gives you confidence they can beat someone relevant. If they lose a close game, it also shows they can hang with a good team.

 

But if they look like crap, particularly on offense, it'll be a tough road ahead.

[dorquemada]

2 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

How you win matters, and who you win against matters. 

 

If they beat the Chiefs, it at least gives you confidence they can beat someone relevant. If they lose a close game, it also shows they can hang with a good team.

 

But if they look like crap, particularly on offense, it'll be a tough road ahead.

 

The book is out on how to beat the bills, it's up to them to flip the script. Defense getting off the field on 3rd and long, and a forward pass (legal in the NFL since since 1920!  Who knew!) every now and again might work wonders

[MPL]

I'm so mad at the schedulers for not giving us a 7-game series against Philadelphia to start the season so we could all feel better. 

[GunnerBill]

There might be math, but the grammar is terrible.

[WotAGuy]

21 minutes ago, Chaos said:

who are you talking too?

Just kind of a moving forward thing because I see it over and over again, it should be:

“who are you talking two?”

[Bruffalo]

You can only play who is on the schedule.

 

It's not the Bills' fault those other teams are dogwater.