Beane elaborates on the process of picking Josh Allen

[Low Positive]

5 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Just curious, when was the last time a can't-miss QB in the draft panned out as expected? Seems to me it's the guys with questions that turn out better.

Burrow. But in general, you’re correct. Most of the great ones have some aspect of their game that can be improved. 

[BADOLBILZ]

23 minutes ago, SoMAn said:

There’s nothing ‘sure’ in picking a prospect from the college ranks. They felt great about Josh, but what was the cost of moving into the top spot? Both 2018 1sts and 2019 1st and 2nd? 
Maybe something along those lines, I don’t know. 
Considering that there were other viable QBs with similar expectations (depending on any particular draft ‘expert’), giving up multiple premium picks as they’re trying to build for the future could have been a disaster - especially as the likely trade partners would have been division and/or AFC rivals. 
The maneuvering Beane did to get to #7 was brilliant, and the Bills and we fans were incredibly fortunate that The Browns, Jets, and Broncos all went for ‘the sure thing’.  
 

 

 

I would say feeling "great" about a player is the equivalent of feeling 'sure' so that's splitting hairs.  

 

The Cordy Glenn trade up was a heist.   Moving up 11 spots using a solid veteran with one kidney seemed like a George Allen trade from the 1970's when college player evaluation was much less scientific.   Getting a pick at the top of the 3rd round for Tyrod Taylor as well.

 

Getting up to 7 was a relatively easy move.   7 shouldn't have gotten it done though.   Allen was the type of high ceiling QB who goes #1 overall more years than not.   Warts and all.   It took an astonishingly stupid move by John Elway and Denver to allow Allen to fall there.   I had followed Allen's season and it was no secret that Elway was personally scouting him.  

 

There was a lot more luck involved than brilliance in getting him at 7.    But Beane has my eternal gratitude because he actually did what I had been imploring Bills GM's to do forever.   Pick a QB with that very first pick and run with it.

 

The argument about whether it would have been worth the cost to move up more if it meant more premium picks should be in perspective when it comes to the QB position.  The people who seem to over-value those picks the most are the people who follow the draft casually.   Which is the majority of fans/media.   I know for a FACT that a 1st round pick is the most overrated personnel chip a team has.   Casual followers just have short memories about the picks.  Not having #1 picks is not certain disaster.   The McBeane Bills have overcome a ton of very disappointing 1st and 2nd round picks.   Those misses aren't why they haven't won a SB.

[Doc]

24 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

I don't  agree WRT manipulating the fans about how much they liked Allen.  Giants still had Manning and wanted to grow the ground game to support him.  He couldn't knock CLE and NYJ out of their spots, so he was going to have to wait on those picks anyways.    Indy wasn't in the QB market and it sounds like Beane had enough Intel from Elway that theirs wouldn't be a QB.  He took a chance with Denver.  He may have also felt Lamar had a chance to be great, we don't know about that.

 

Also, Beane still had a franchise to construct so he wasn't going to mortgage their future picks too soon.

I have no problem taking Beane at his word on their Allen view pre-draft.

 

Yeah, out of the top 6 spots, only the 4th (Browns' 2nd pick in that draft) was possibly in play.  Beane had a deal with the Broncos for 6th overall if Chubb wasn't there and when that fell through he traded into 7 when the Bucs were on the clock.  So the question is whether he could have gotten to 4th overall, but I think the Browns were looking to rebuild quickly and get the best CB. 

Edited 18 hours ago by Doc

[SoMAn]

5 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Just curious, when was the last time a can't-miss QB in the draft panned out as expected? Seems to me it's the guys with questions that turn out better.

There’re been a lot of blue chip QB misses, just ask the Browns and the Jets. Those two franchises have spent numerous first round picks over the past 25 years or so on QBs they thought would be their ‘franchise QB’ to come up empty at each attempt. 
It took the Bills over 20 years after Jim Kelly’s retirement to find an elite signal caller.  Finding ‘that guy’ is a GMs biggest challenge. 
If Beane never made another good decision, getting Josh I was enough to secure his legacy in Buffalo. 

[BADOLBILZ]

14 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

I don't  agree WRT manipulating the fans about how much they liked Allen.  Giants still had Manning and wanted to grow the ground game to support him.  He couldn't knock CLE and NYJ out of their spots, so he was going to have to wait on those picks anyways.    Indy wasn't in the QB market and it sounds like Beane had enough Intel from Elway that theirs wouldn't be a QB.  He took a chance with Denver.  He may have also felt Lamar had a chance to be great, we don't know about that.

 

Also, Beane still had a franchise to construct so he wasn't going to mortgage their future picks too soon.

I have no problem taking Beane at his word on their Allen view pre-draft.

 

 

Beane colors his stories to accentuate his positives.   I understand that some of you can't see that but that's because he's good at it.   I've said it since he got here,  he isn't much of a scout but he is a GREAT executive.   And that's what the Pegula's needed more than anything back in 2017.    But consider the simple fact that it's 2025 and he had to go on WGR and say "it's 2018 all over again with you guys".   Because he hasn't drafted a single difference maker since then.   With all due respect to Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau they aren't in that category.   Cook is a RB so you aren't necessarily even going to see him on the field on 3rd and long with the game on the line(as we saw in the AFCCG).   They don't have a 2-4 man core of difference makers like most championship contenders.......as McDermott lamented at seasons end.

[Sierra Foothills]

12 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Josh Allen's last playoff win.

 

The Josh we all know and love.

 

Even years later I have panic watching the dog pile growing in the end zone while his teammates rushed onto the field.

 

I wonder if he was asked about his thoughts at the bottom of that pile...

 

[BuffaloBill]

12 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Josh Allen's last playoff win.

 

 

 

 

Vintage Josh Allen…. 

[Since1981]

I appreciated that they put together stats for each prospective QB—it felt like a way to balance things out and ask, “If this #17 guy had a decent line or receivers, how would he have performed?” And we also have to accept that Beane got some luck too—just like Jobs, Gates, and Buffett. A big idea and a bit of luck go hand in hand.

[julian]

38 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Beane colors his stories to accentuate his positives.   I understand that some of you can't see that but that's because he's good at it.   I've said it since he got here,  he isn't much of a scout but he is a GREAT executive.   And that's what the Pegula's needed more than anything back in 2017.    But consider the simple fact that it's 2025 and he had to go on WGR and say "it's 2018 all over again with you guys".   Because he hasn't drafted a single difference maker since then.   With all due respect to Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau they aren't in that category.   Cook is a RB so you aren't necessarily even going to see him on the field on 3rd and long with the game on the line(as we saw in the AFCCG).   They don't have a 2-4 man core of difference makers like most championship contenders.......as McDermott lamented at seasons end.

100% agree on Beane’s inability to find difference makers, it’s a BIG reason why they haven’t won a chip yet. On the other hand, Beane has been exceptional at filling out the roster with more good/very good players than maybe any other GM in the league.

 

To be somewhat fair to Beane, finding Blue chip difference makers is very difficult when you’re drafting 25th or later every year, I’d say it also takes some luck.

 

 As someone else said in this thread, the Allen pick has cemented Beane’s legacy in Buffalo, but the full story of Beane’s legacy is still being written and if he doesn’t win a championship with Allen at QB his reign as GM in Buffalo will ultimately be seen as a disappointment IMHO.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

11 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Swear I overheard Brandon Beane (shortly after he was hired) say he hopes "that Allen kid in Wyoming has a down year so we have a chance at him" when asked by a rich blowhard guest at Tempo about their draft plans at QB. I can see which table Beane was passing as he said this. I trust that memory less and less as time passes (might have been later in Beane's first season on the job, in reference to Allen's pre-draft process/athletic testing), but the memory persists in my rolodex of intimate team official interactions. 

 

 

Dunkirk Don is not that rich.  We all know his other attributes. 🤨

(I'll wager he claimed that meal as a 'business expense'.)

Edited 17 hours ago by Ridgewaycynic2013

[uticaclub]

13 hours ago, Turbo44 said:

Or benford or Bernard or brown or cook or Johnson or Shakir or Torrence….. waiting patiently

Notice the laughing emoji, it was a joke. Josh was the 3rd QB taken; this story is a irrelevant fluff piece

[MJS]

4 hours ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

A 17 year drought to be able to get number 17…. I don’t know guys…I think I might do it again. He is the most exciting player I’ve ever watched in the NFL. 

If he brings a Lombardi or two, I agree.

[billsbackto81]

14 hours ago, Turbo44 said:

Or benford or Bernard or brown or cook or Johnson or Shakir or Torrence….. waiting patiently

I'll stick up for Knox and Oliver as solid picks. 

[DrDawkinstein]

2 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Just curious, when was the last time a can't-miss QB in the draft panned out as expected? Seems to me it's the guys with questions that turn out better.

 

Part of that is on the players. But part of it (and one could argue an even bigger part of it) is that the top prospects go to the worst teams.

 

Look at the difference a change in scenery and coaching made for Darnold. Lamar Jackson was lucky to go to a franchise like Baltimore instead of Cleveland or the Jets, or else he could be out of the league by now too.

 

All those top picks the Browns and Jets have made, all turn into busts... at some point it becomes obvious the problem isnt with the QBs.

 

Guys like Luck, Burrow, Newton were lucky enough to be picked by #1 spot team who happened to be on the upswing.

[eball]

The BEST GMs in the NFL don’t get half of their picks right.  You can cherry pick with any of them.

 

And yes, Beane is one of the best.

 

[Nihilarian]

14 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

If they were so sure Allen would be great they would have done one of these crazy trades like we saw with Cleveland and Jacksonville this spring.   They liked Allen a lot but they would have just picked a different QB.  

Beane tried to move up more, but nobody would budge.

 

Cleveland, with the #1 overall, was dead certain about QB Baker Mayfield. They passed on Allen 2x as they drafted Denzel Ward at #4.

 

The entire Buffalo fan base was urging Beane to trade up to the NY Giants spot at #2 for Josh Rosen, even if he had to give up the farm to do it. The NY Giants, however, stated NOPE, they wanted an RB named Barkley. The NY Jets did a Jetsy thing and drafted QB Sam Darnold. 

 

The Bills did have a deal with Denver at #5 unless the guy they wanted was there, and he was... DE Bradley Chubb. The Colts were next and dead set on an OG named Quinton Nelson. (Denver GM John Elway has stated that missing on Allen was his worst mistake as a GM.)

 

Finally, at #7, Buffalo made a trade with Tampa Bay, and they didn't need to give up that other extra #1 pick, whom they drafted Tremaine Edmunds at #16 (which was also a trade with Baltimore)

 

Clearly, nobody else saw what Brandon Beane saw in a super smart kid who would do anything to play in the NFL. A kid who grew up on a farm and was no stranger to hard work. A kid who emailed 2000 schools to attempt to get a scholarship, and he ended up going to a junior college because nobody wanted him. At that time, 6'3'' 198 pounds with a rocket for an arm. Eventually, he found two schools to take him, and the one rescinded their offer when they found out that Wyoming offered him a scholarship. Allen showed that he had improved his throwing and accuracy at the Senior Bowl and talked about how jacked his footwork was in College at the Combine. He knew what he needed to do to improve, and he did just that! Still learning and improving! 

[Nihilarian]

A young Josh Allen with NFL QB Derek Carr! 

[SoonerBillsFan]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Beane colors his stories to accentuate his positives.   I understand that some of you can't see that but that's because he's good at it.   I've said it since he got here,  he isn't much of a scout but he is a GREAT executive.   And that's what the Pegula's needed more than anything back in 2017.    But consider the simple fact that it's 2025 and he had to go on WGR and say "it's 2018 all over again with you guys".   Because he hasn't drafted a single difference maker since then.   With all due respect to Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau they aren't in that category.   Cook is a RB so you aren't necessarily even going to see him on the field on 3rd and long with the game on the line(as we saw in the AFCCG).   They don't have a 2-4 man core of difference makers like most championship contenders.......as McDermott lamented at seasons end.

I can't disagree.  I feel his WR draft evals have been bad.  I haven't been thrilled with his DL evaluation either, but I feel we nailed the DL in this draft.

[Herc11]

7 hours ago, bmur66 said:

I didn’t watch but the Bills were just lucky they were able to get Josh Allen because other teams messed up.

The same can be said for every successful QB taken that wasn't a #1 pick

 

*** Kept reading and saw I wasn't the only one that clued in on this

Edited 14 hours ago by Herc11

[PonyBoy]

13 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

A young Josh Allen with NFL QB Derek Carr! 

 

He's got a little Michael Cera in him no?