Randy Mueller - maybe only ~150 draftable players this year

[QLBillsFan]

And every year players are drafted late that contribute to teams. In addition to FA that do the same. Josh and Lamar ended up home runs and the other 3 ..not  so much (Baker has been decent) The Rams had it right on Nacua and nobody else did. So I would give that about zero thought. Having said that not sure 11 players make the Bills. Trade the super late picks and move up. Or keep them all and maybe 248 makes it 😂 who really knows!! 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

And every year players are drafted late that contribute to teams. In addition to FA that do the same. Josh and Lamar ended up home runs and the other 3 ..not  so much (Baker has been decent) The Rams had it right on Nacua and nobody else did. So I would give that about zero thought. Having said that not sure 11 players make the Bills. Trade the super late picks and move up. Or keep them all and maybe 248 makes it 😂 who really knows!! 

 

The Rams had three 5th round comp picks. They spent the third of those 3 on Nacua. He wasn't even their priority among 5th round comps. Sometimes players surprise you. There will be starters out of day 3 this year. I'm sure about that. But likely not as many as in other years. 

[Beck Water]

4 hours ago, Brandon said:

I've heard that elsewhere in the last few weeks.  If true,  those later picks on day 3 are more worthless than usual for trade purposes.  

 

Wellllllll.....a couple of things

 

One is, as the author points out, the people who have cred on the line in a good draft (those inside NFL buildings) evaluate talent differently than the media pundits.  So that's not to say that teams agree with him there are only 150 draftable guys ( that's typically about halfway through the 5th round - the Bills drafted Shorter with pick 150 last season.  Some may think 125, some may think 250.

 

Two is, for different teams, they aren't going to be the same 150 guys.    So chances are good at pick 160 and 163, there are still going to be guys the Bills are interested in drafting.

 

The overwhelming reason I roll my eyes is that last season, 485 undrafted players made NFL rosters.  That's an average of 15 players per team.  Some of these players, of course, are veterans who may have kicked around the league on practice squads before making a roster.  But the Bills signed 7 just last season.   Two of them are still around on the Practice Squad, while our 2 7th round picks were cut and are gone.

 

 

Edited April 15 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, boyst said:

It is amazing because it's a coin.

 

On one side it is better for the team to draft players but this secures them to a contract. For the player this limits their earnings potential.

 

On the other side it is better for the team to fill their roster with UDFA's because they can bring in talented individuals who do not need to be paid the minimums guaranteed in the NFL Draft rounds but for the players they can often exceed the NFL Draft amount with bonuses and such.

 

That isn't quite true.

UDFA have a minimum salary of $750,000 if they stay on the roster

They can be paid a variable bonus, but each team has a total pool from which they can pay bonuses.  

So while they can use that entire pool on one player if they choose, the entire amount is rather small

 

"Franchises only have a certain total amount of money that they can pull from to use for signing bonuses for UDFAs. The number is determined based on the team’s total budgeted allotment for rookies, and last year ranged between $160,000 and $200,000, depending on the team. Teams can give as much or as little of their pool to a single player, but they only have the budgeted allotment."

 

https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2023/4/29/23703444/udfa-salaries-how-much-money-do-undrafted-free-agents-make-nfl-salaries-2023-draft

The last player drafted in the 7th round will get a signing bonus of $93k.  While in theory, teams could sign an UDFA and give him more signing bonus, in practice, that usually doesn't happen.

[boyst]

10 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

That isn't quite true.

UDFA have a minimum salary of $750,000 if they stay on the roster

They can be paid a variable bonus, but each team has a total pool from which they can pay bonuses.  

So while they can use that entire pool on one player if they choose, the entire amount is rather small

 

"Franchises only have a certain total amount of money that they can pull from to use for signing bonuses for UDFAs. The number is determined based on the team’s total budgeted allotment for rookies, and last year ranged between $160,000 and $200,000, depending on the team. Teams can give as much or as little of their pool to a single player, but they only have the budgeted allotment."

 

https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2023/4/29/23703444/udfa-salaries-how-much-money-do-undrafted-free-agents-make-nfl-salaries-2023-draft

The last player drafted in the 7th round will get a signing bonus of $93k.  While in theory, teams could sign an UDFA and give him more signing bonus, in practice, that usually doesn't happen.

look up the info about our favorite player da'rick rodgers

 

i remember that his camp was happy that he was not drafted - it enabled them to get a bigger bonus.

[Beck Water]

8 minutes ago, boyst said:

look up the info about our favorite player da'rick rodgers

 

i remember that his camp was happy that he was not drafted - it enabled them to get a bigger bonus.

 

Good for him, I hope it helped pay his defense attorney for his 2014 DUI charges that got him released from the Colts in September.

 

I don't remember when they instituted the bonus pool for UDFA.  Da'Rick Rogers was 2013.  So maybe he did get a bigger bonus.

 

He could still get a bigger bonus if the pool was in effect or today - it's just a matter of how much of their pool they want to spend on 1 guy.  So my point is, it's not likely to be THAT much bigger - maybe it's $120k vs $93k - and if a guy sticks on the roster, that difference is swallowed up by the $63k difference in salary between Mr Irrelevant and a UDFA rookie.

 

Of course, if a guy gets cut and put on the practice squad, then the bonus is what matters.

[Sestak4ever]

1 hour ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

This is probably the best explanation. 

 

The NIL machine is heating up and players are staying longer in college if they can make 2-4M per year

Very true.

[iccrewman112]

4 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Are we finally seeing the result of parents not letting their kids play football in their youth?

Recently read an article youth and high school football participation down ~7% year over year for the last 6 years. 

[PromoTheRobot]

9 minutes ago, iccrewman112 said:

Recently read an article youth and high school football participation down ~7% year over year for the last 6 years. 

 

This is a big reason the NFL sponsors youth football in other countries. They need to replenish the pipeline.

[iccrewman112]

16 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

This is a big reason the NFL sponsors youth football in other countries. They need to replenish the pipeline.

100% agree.

[dave mcbride]

32 minutes ago, iccrewman112 said:

Recently read an article youth and high school football participation down ~7% year over year for the last 6 years. 

If this article is to be trusted, high school football participation had a big increase last year (although since it's post-pandemic the numbers are going to be skewed): https://www.nfhs.org/articles/high-school-sports-participation-continues-rebound-toward-pre-pandemic-levels/. I think participation in most team sports has declined. A lot of it is a function of kids only playing sport as opposed to multiple ones, like in the past.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

Two of them are still around on the Practice Squad, while our 2 7th round picks were cut and are gone.

 

 

Both our 7th rounders are on NFL rosters though in fairness.... and were on 53s last season not PS. 

[Beck Water]

8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

If this article is to be trusted, high school football participation had a big increase last year (although since it's post-pandemic the numbers are going to be skewed): https://www.nfhs.org/articles/high-school-sports-participation-continues-rebound-toward-pre-pandemic-levels/. I think participation in most team sports has declined. A lot of it is a function of kids only playing sport as opposed to multiple ones, like in the past.

 

There's also a component of participation in individual sports like parkour, ninja, rock climbing, etc are soaring

[jkeerie]

2 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:

And every year players are drafted late that contribute to teams. In addition to FA that do the same. Josh and Lamar ended up home runs and the other 3 ..not  so much (Baker has been decent) The Rams had it right on Nacua and nobody else did. So I would give that about zero thought. Having said that not sure 11 players make the Bills. Trade the super late picks and move up. Or keep them all and maybe 248 makes it 😂 who really knows!! 

Couldn't agree more.  The Bills always find contributors late in the draft.  We only have 10 picks as the 6th was traded to Houston in the Diggs trade.  The Bills need depth so this is probably a good year for rookies to make the team.  Wouldn't surprise me either if they parlay a pick or two into next year's draft especially a 5th rounder, since we traded next year's 5th as well.

[uninja]

5 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Trade them for next year. This year is a bust anyways. No receivers, new OL, no pass rush, no safeties, and Josh is busy golfing 

 

You sure?

[QLBillsFan]

6 minutes ago, jkeerie said:

Couldn't agree more.  The Bills always find contributors late in the draft.  We only have 10 picks as the 6th was traded to Houston in the Diggs trade.  The Bills need depth so this is probably a good year for rookies to make the team.  Wouldn't surprise me either if they parlay a pick or two into next year's draft especially a 5th rounder, since we traded next year's 5th as well.

Yes my bad correct 10 picks.. I think they probably pick 9 who all have a shot at making the roster. 

[billsfan89]

This is just one mans opinion but every year the opinions on the NFL draft class vary so widely. Some years you have some pundits saying this is a terrible class while others say this class is super deep. The NFL draft class has such varying opinions more so than the NBA or NHL draft whose opinions on those sports draft classes tend to be more uniform (in a given year you can tell which draft classes are more highly or less regarded for example this years NBA draft class is viewed by most as a "weak" draft class). 

 

I think largely because football has 22 starting position plus kickers and punters and even in the 22 starting positions there are variances (like players might be suited for a 3-4 role or a 4-3 role or zone vs. man schemes) and role players plus special teams. You probably are scouting for 35-40 position types and roles on a NFL draft. 

 

The only consistent trend I am seeing among pundits and "draft experts" is that the WR class is very good and the QB class is great at the top and a crap shoot after the first two prospects. Everything else is such a variance as to how good or deep the overall class is and that is in line with most drafts. 

[billsfan89]

1 minute ago, QLBillsFan said:

Yes my bad correct 10 picks.. I think they probably pick 9 who all have a shot at making the roster. 

 

Looking at the roster I see room for 8-11 players from this draft class.

 

Just breaking it down a bit

 

I can't see them drafting anything other than a 7th round flyer on TE, QB, LB or K/P (even though I think K/P is a need I don't think they view it that way). 

 

As far as the rest of the position groups I think they have room on the roster for 

 

WR: Room for 1-2 players - Biggest need on the team, they usually carry 5-6 so with Shakir, Samuel and Hollins as locks and Shorter as a probably that leaves room for 1-2 players there. 

 

OL: Room for 1 player - They usually carry 9-10, I think with Collins and Clapp added to the bench and Van Denmark and Anderson there they will likely only draft one player to be in the mix to push Collins and Clapp in camp and add some development. 

 

RB: Room for 1 player - They usually carry 3 RB's and right now only Cook and Ty Johnson are there. They don't need to spend a high pick here but they could easily add a depth RB in round 6. 

 

DT: Room for 1-2 players - They right now have Oliver, Daquon and Johnson at DT, they usually carry 5. Likely they are going to draft 1 if not 2 players here. They need longer term stability and development here. 

 

DE: Room for 1-2 players - They have AJE, Groot and Von as locks and they usually carry 5-6 DE's, I think they probably like Kingsley Johnathan and Toohill to battle it out for that 5th spot. I think they want a rookie in on that 4th DE spot and I could see them drafting 2 if they want to carry 6 here. Although I think them carrying 6 is unlikely. 

 

S: Room for 1 player - They have Rapp and Edwards as starters and they usually carry 5. With Cam Lewis likely occupying one spot as a ST player and Hamlin occupying one backup spot, they definitely need to bulk up the depth and develop someone behind Edwards whose only a one year rental. 

 

CB: Room for 1-2 players - They usually carry 6 CB's and they currently run 4 deep with Douglas, Elam, Benford and Taron locks, they also have Ingram whose been developing on the backend bench and PS the past two seasons. I think they easily need one if not two corners for depth and development. 

 

I don't think they go 4 DL players at most they go with 3 so I think 11 players drafted/rostered if they do a trade down and acquire a pick is unlikely. I also think they may only draft one CB as I think they like Ingram as the CB6. 

[Mr. WEO]

"The top players will disappear quickly, and teams will have to guard against the risk of overdrafting players in the later rounds."

 

You don't say..

 

I should write for The Athletic

[DCofNC]

5 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

That's the way I am feeling too.  I think Odunze is more of their flavor since he's a contested catch monster.  

The more I see the more I like Odunze.  I don’t watch enough college ball to even pretend to know who is going to translate to the NFL, but I think this team needs a stud at WR and I’d go after one this year by using next years 1st if I had to.   Even if you burn next year’s first, you have 2 seconds and a lot more cap room to work with, making for a better re-tool scenario.   For me, try to preserve this years 2nd if you can, but just about anything else would be on the table to go get the guy they want.   

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, uninja said:

 

You sure?

 

Well played, Sir!

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Both our 7th rounders are on NFL rosters though in fairness.... and were on 53s last season not PS. 

 

That's a very fair point.  But there are UDFA on various rosters around the league too.  I think the point is, the plug isn't pulled on guys who can actually play in the league at Draft Pick #150, or Draft Pick #250, or Draft Pick #259.  Some of the guys who get drafted earlier won't "cut the mustard", and some of the 7th rounders and UDFA will.

Edited April 15 by Beck Water

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Well played, Sir!

 

 

That's a very fair point.  But there are UDFA on various rosters around the league too.  I think the point is, the plug isn't pulled on guys who can actually play in the league at Draft Pick #150, or Draft Pick #250, or Draft Pick #259.  Some of the guys who get drafted earlier won't "cut the mustard", and some of the 7th rounders and UDFA will.

 

For sure. But some drafts are deeper than others. The chances are better there more talent there is. This is a good class at the top. It isn't a class with great depth. Doesn't mean there won't be starters that come from rounds 5 through 7. But the chances are not equal each year. 

[Aussie Joe]

I will say this .., at the start of Day 3 of the draft … there  will likely be a lot of players left that people here will still be very keen on the Bills drafting … 

 

Probably they will be mostly gone by end of Round 5 ..: which to me seems like a pretty typical year 

[RyanC883]

10 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I thought this comment was interesting. The Bills have five picks before 150 and five after that threshold.

 

”After several classes overflowing with talented prospects (mainly due to the extra year of eligibility granted because of the pandemic), with as many as 350 names filling NFL teams’ draft boards, teams could struggle to get 150 names on their boards this year. This is dangerous for two reasons: The top players will disappear quickly, and teams will have to guard against the risk of overdrafting players in the later rounds. It might be a good opportunity for some teams to trade picks, maybe to move up into the first four rounds, or for a veteran player who brings more certainty. For that reason, there will be a lot of trade talk over the next couple of weeks.”

 

https://theathletic.com/5412463/2024/04/15/nfl-draft-randy-mueller-top-10/

 

yeah, the premise here makes little sense.  The late picks have no value, so people will trade them away.  Trade them to who?  How do you trade something that is worthless. 

 

I see a decent number of centers in this draft from good programs in addition to the "top guys" (PSU, LSU, Wisconsin, Oklahoma), as well as what appear to be a large number of DTs.  The draft seems deep in potential depth players after Rd. 2, so I'm not sure it's as bleak as the article snippet implies.  Good year to have a team setup before the draft with few needs for instant impact like we do.  

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Don’t they say this every year?

[mannc]

8 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Don’t they say this every year?

Yes, they do. It's BS.

[Aussie Joe]

9 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Don’t they say this every year?

It’s certainly not the first time I’ve heard it ..

[dave mcbride]

12 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

yeah, the premise here makes little sense.  The late picks have no value, so people will trade them away.  Trade them to who?  How do you trade something that is worthless. 

 

I see a decent number of centers in this draft from good programs in addition to the "top guys" (PSU, LSU, Wisconsin, Oklahoma), as well as what appear to be a large number of DTs.  The draft seems deep in potential depth players after Rd. 2, so I'm not sure it's as bleak as the article snippet implies.  Good year to have a team setup before the draft with few needs for instant impact like we do.  

I dunno … Randy Mueller knows far more than you or I do. He literally has 35 years of NFL experience in draft rooms. You and I are just message board dorks whose knowledge is all second or third hand.

Edited April 16 by dave mcbride

[Aussie Joe]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

I dunno … Randy Mueller knows far more than you or I do. He literally has 35 years of NFL experience in draft rooms. You and are just message board dorks whose knowledge is all second or third hand.

No one here knows anything …. But a couple of people have some very strong opinions…

[gonzo1105]

12 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

No one here knows anything …. But a couple of people have some very strong opinions…

I have insight from a lot of people since I used to work in the industry in college football. I know scouts for the Jets, Texans, Bears. This doesn’t mean they are going to tell me about what they’re going to do but if I ask about a certain prospect they’ll share. I did this a couple of years ago when Melifonwu was coming out of Syracuse and people were projecting the Bills to take him in round 1. I didn’t see it but I asked around and the opinion I got was no shot he’s going in round 2 or 3. So it justified my evaluation. I watched tape on HS prospects and cut them up so our coaching staff could evaluate them. 
 

I have certain insights at schools such as Buffalo, Kansas, South Dakota State, Northern Illinois, Florida State(just because I’m a fan and watch them all the time). 
 

Does this mean I know everything, No, but I do have the resources to ask if I really need to about certain players. 

[Aussie Joe]

15 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I have insight from a lot of people since I used to work in the industry in college football. I know scouts for the Jets, Texans, Bears. This doesn’t mean they are going to tell me about what they’re going to do but if I ask about a certain prospect they’ll share. I did this a couple of years ago when Melifonwu was coming out of Syracuse and people were projecting the Bills to take him in round 1. I didn’t see it but I asked around and the opinion I got was no shot he’s going in round 2 or 3. So it justified my evaluation. I watched tape on HS prospects and cut them up so our coaching staff could evaluate them. 
 

I have certain insights at schools such as Buffalo, Kansas, South Dakota State, Northern Illinois, Florida State(just because I’m a fan and watch them all the time). 
 

Does this mean I know everything, No, but I do have the resources to ask if I really need to about certain players. 

Ok …interesting ….that could be helpful for getting some info on some players at those schools …

 

Do you have any knowledge about Garret Greenfield from South Dakota State?
 

Possible mid Day 3 pick for the Bills maybe?

[gonzo1105]

12 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Ok …interesting ….that could be helpful for getting some info on some players at those schools …

 

Do you have any knowledge about Garret Greenfield from South Dakota State?
 

Possible mid Day 3 pick for the Bills maybe?

I think both McCormick and Greenfield get drafted higher than their projections. McCormick I see going round 3 or 4. Greenfield is more a round 4 or 5  guy. Guy I know is the OC who actually coaches their OL but previously coached the TEs. 
 

Both are great kids but with Greenfield  specifically he has prototypical size and played a lot of games at SDSU which doesn’t hurt. I think the question with him besides level of comp obviously is is he maxed out. 
 

He has prototypical size but he’s already 24 and usually when you take FCS guys you hope there is some upside. I just wonder how much of that there is in his game. I think he’s a swing tackle in the NFL who can become an average starting NFL tackle if he can develop his play strength more. 
 

That’s the big question with him. 

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Don’t they say this every year?

 

No

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

"Overdrating  players in a later round" that kind of sounds like an oxymoron.  Once you get past round 4, it's a crapshoot in every draft. 

[GunnerBill]

36 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

"Overdrating  players in a later round" that kind of sounds like an oxymoron.  Once you get past round 4, it's a crapshoot in every draft. 

 

That is definitely true. But there are still stronger day 3 groups and and weaker ones... and this is a weaker one overall. 

[DJB]

13 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Don’t they say this every year?

You never hear “It’s a typical draft class this year “

 

Someone always says it deeper, better or worse than usual or the year before lol

[RyanC883]

13 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I dunno … Randy Mueller knows far more than you or I do. He literally has 35 years of NFL experience in draft rooms. You and I are just message board dorks whose knowledge is all second or third hand.

 

Hey, who you calling a dork....message board nerd, it's nerd, not dork

 

But yeah, he does know more, but I feel like he may be wrong, or at least there are less "high level" guys this year, but I think a lot of guys for depth purposes (backup DTs, RBs, etc.)  I think it looks good for us because we need 2 great WRs (draft has those), and then a bunch of backup types all around.