Calling it now: You're all about to witness the arrival of Shakir

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

And I think that production would be fine if it comes to fruition.  They now need at least 1 starting WR, maybe 2, but for sure an X boundary guy, but I don't think Shakir will be carrying the offense - he is a complementary piece.

 

I agree, I am not saying he is going to be the DeAndre Hopkins of the Bills, but I do think he will be more than the role people are limiting his ceiling too.  

1 hour ago, zow2 said:

Nice analysis by the OP, but it's not a great take to say Shakir will arrive.  A lot of us have been super high on Shakir since that first training camp and feel he was underutilized from the beginning.  He arrived this past season.  He will continue to ascend this season.

 

I know there are others who have been high on him and a bigger season this year will be no surprise, but most aren't other than as a role player.  Just read this thread.  

[GunnerBill]

24 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

All I remember is whenever I said McKenzie is not a starter you would disagree and say he is going to have a career year.  

 

And he was a starter and had a career year.

[Dillenger4]

36 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Then maybe you haven't read this thread where most either are unsure about him or disagree he can be more than a role player.  

Well, I for one agree with you 100%. I think Shakir is good and will definitely continue to grow for us. Was just razzin ya btw - all good.

[Jauronimo]

11 hours ago, Juice_32 said:

I feel like you’re usually spot on with these kinds of posts, so I’m in! 

Alpha was right about Trent Sherfield last year and won a little bit of cash betting on Trent to exceed expectations in our high flying offense.  Granted, Sherfield went for 11 catches on 20 targets with 87 yards and 1 TD, but $50 is $50.

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And he was a starter and had a career year.

 
Lol…except that wasn’t what we were really discussing or disagreeing over in regards to McKenzie.  But it’s all good, I certainly remember you being pretty active supporting and defending McKenzie that preseason against the criticisms being presented.  You feel different, so be it.  All good either way

[Don Otreply]

12 hours ago, SCBills said:

I still legitimately have no idea what Shakir is tbh. 

It appears he is an all arounder type receiver, and a real good one at that, if he was the one to get the ball in that fake punt, there is good reason to think he would have converted for the first down, jmo

[Alphadawg7]

9 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

Well, I for one agree with you 100%. I think Shakir is good and will definitely continue to grow for us. Was just razzin ya btw - all good.

Haha all good.  Been a fun topic regardless, enjoying everyone’s input.  
 

Best part about this, even if I am wrong, odds are he still proves to be a very good support player for us.  But I just have this feeling I can’t shake that he has that extra something in him that sees him get to a higher level than most think he will be.  

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 
Lol…except that wasn’t what we were really discussing or disagreeing over in regards to McKenzie.  But it’s all good, I certainly remember you being pretty active supporting and defending McKenzie that preseason against the criticisms being presented.  You feel different, so be it.  All good either way

 

It was EXACTLY what we were discussing. You seem to recall me arguing McKenzie was a stud or something which was certainly never my position. It was that he was best placed to start in 2022 and would win the competition and start at slot (my original position was actually you'd see something of a jobshare with Crowder due to their differing skillsets but that McKenzie would take the lion share of the snaps because he separated better and Crowder would likely get hurt - that took about 3 games to come to pass). You were arguing not only that McKenzie shouldn't start, but that he wouldn't. He did. And we agreed at the time that career year was not a particularly high bar and that is why I set 500 yards as a target projection. He fell 77 yards short of that. That was the only extent within that conversation to which I was wrong. 

[QLBillsFan]

12 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

It's not a 1:1 comparison but this was the pro-Gabe Davis narrative after 2020. As we found out, yards per target doesn't automatically scale like that. Some players' skill sets shine better when they are low target players.

 

I'll gladly eat crow if I'm wrong but I think Shakir is one of those players. I see people compare him to Beasley but I think they're almost total opposites. Shakir isn't nearly as sudden as Beasley was on his route breaks which means his success against man will always be limited. If you can't regularly beat man you can't be a high volume target, simple as that.

 

I still love Shakir in his current role though. Strong hands + great YAC is an extremely valuable complementary skillset.

Shakir was a multiple skill set. He’s capable of both the Gave and Beasley roles. Don’t know if he’s a #1 but don’t care. He’s going to catch 80-100 and surprise some people. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'm sorry I disagree on this. The reason he is slot only is because he is the bottom one percentile all time for NFL receivers in terms of arm length. It means he struggles to get off press and it means he struggles when fighting with DBs downfield. He also frankly just doesn't run routes well enough for the outside where you really need to be at your landmarks because your QB rarely has the luxury of throwing to you as a stopped target outside. It has been proven on the field too. His effectiveness drops significantly vs man and when line up outside. He is a slot receiver who you use against zone defenses between the hashes and trust his quick feet and elusiveness to get you yards after the catch. 

 

He didn't though. 

 

 

The other issue I have with Shakir outside is that there is no indication that he can track the ball well enough to threaten teams vertically.   He's fast enough but guys who track the ball well catch the ball 40 yards down the field with an ease that's  not much different than how they do it 15 yards down the field.  In limited opportunities he's been a ball dropper and I think I saw one time on his college tape where he actually caught a deep ball in stride.  He likes to stop his feet on longer throws.   I am certain if I can see that he knows it and maybe that's something he can improve but it's a weakness, IMO.

[SCBills]

17 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

It appears he is an all arounder type receiver, and a real good one at that, if he was the one to get the ball in that fake punt, there is good reason to think he would have converted for the first down, jmo

This is where I lean with him.  
 

Upgrade outside WR1 & WR2, put Samuel in the Slot and I think Shakir is a fantastic piece to rotate inside & outside in the Emmanuel Sanders/Gabe Davis role back when our Offense really started to take off. 

[Bruffalo]

I think Shakir is an elite roleplayer and the production he got is indicative of the coverage talent he faces. That's not a dig at Shakir, I think he's going to be a high end slot WR3 guy, someone like Tyler Boyd, although stylistically they're not really the same.

 

This is the same as Gabe Davis, who was promoted too far in the lineup.  You want these types of players as #3s, not 2s or 1. 

 

I'd love to be wrong though.   

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The other issue I have with Shakir outside is that there is no indication that he can track the ball well enough to threaten teams vertically.   He's fast enough but guys who track the ball well catch the ball 40 yards down the field with an ease that's  not much different than how they do it 15 yards down the field.  In limited opportunities he's been a ball dropper and I think I saw one time on his college tape where he actually caught a deep ball in stride.  He likes to stop his feet on longer throws.   I am certain if I can see that he knows it and maybe that's something he can improve but it's a weakness, IMO.

 

I think the feet stopping thing - and you are right that is a tendency of his - is also linked to the lack of precision in his route running. To me on longer developing plays he often finishes his route and then sort of stops to adjust to where the route should have finished rather than where it did. 

[BADOLBILZ]

I will add that there was A LOT of hype in general about the Shakir pick back in 2022.   Like I said, we had people on TSW go so far as drawing comps to Stef Diggs.   A lot was EXPECTED.   

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

Nice thread, guys.   Interesting discussion.  

 

I get Dawg's theory, but I'm not yet convinced that Shakir can be that guy.   He needs to take another step, and I'm not sure that's happening.   

 

I do think there's a a hidden benefit to Diggs' departure along the lines of what Dawg said, which is that the Bills no longer have a receiver who's demanding targets.  And he did demand targets.   It was quite obvious that the game plan always included early throws to Diggs, and I think those targets were intended to keep him happy, not necessarily to cause the defense to focus on him. 

 

My guess is that Shakir is an important piece in what we'll see from Brady's offense.   I think we're going to see receivers running slants, crossers, quick outs, the occasional wheel route out of the backfield, and wideouts going deep when the defense leave them in favorable matchups.   Shakir can do all of that.   Samuel can do all of that.   Kincaid more or less does all of that.   And I think there's likely to be a rookie out there doing the same things.   I think it's going to look like what the Lions and the 49ers did last season with a bunch of receivers who run good routes and who like having the ball in their hands.   The receptions will be spread around among a lot of guys.

 

Who's going to lead that group?   Well, the Bills have to replace the 1900 receiving yards that Diggs and Davis got last season.   Kincaid will get some, maybe 300.  The rookie will get 500 (unless the Bills make a major move and get one of the big three in the draft).   Shakir and Samuel both had 600 yards last season, and they will get most of the 1100 additional yards that need to be recovered.   My money would be on Samuel being the 2024 leading receiver at 1300, with Shakir second around 1000, but I could see it fall the other way.  

[HappyDays]

44 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

He’s capable of both the Gabe and Beasley roles.

 

Has he caught a single outside vertical route? I can't recall one.

[GoBills808]

26 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

I think Shakir is an elite roleplayer and the production he got is indicative of the coverage talent he faces. That's not a dig at Shakir, I think he's going to be a high end slot WR3 guy, someone like Tyler Boyd, although stylistically they're not really the same.

 

This is the same as Gabe Davis, who was promoted too far in the lineup.  You want these types of players as #3s, not 2s or 1. 

 

I'd love to be wrong though.   

You're not wrong

 

for some reason Bills fans lately keep wanting to go cheap offensively and promote/project guys into roles they aren't suited for

 

we saw it w Davis, Knox, and now Shakir I guess is next one up...who is a good player. but he's shouldn't be second option on a Super Bowl contender

[TheBrownBear]

Shakir, more than any Bills receiver in the last 24 years, reminds me of my childhood favorite, Andre Reed.  I think he's going to emerge as Josh's favorite WR target and have a huge year.  Assuming we find a solid X receiver via the draft who can grow into a contributor over the course of the season, I think our receiving room could actually go from a perceived weakness to a strength.

[Figster]

Just now, TheBrownBear said:

Shakir, more than any Bills receiver in the last 24 years, reminds me of my childhood favorite, Andre Reed.  I think he's going to emerge as Josh's favorite WR target and have a huge year.  Assuming we find a solid X receiver via the draft who can grow into a contributor over the course of the season, I think our receiving room could actually go from a perceived weakness to a strength.

I have also made the same comparison.

 

Short arms is Shakirs biggest weakness, and probably biggest difference from Andre Reed.

 

Something OP pointed out in another thread If I remember correctly...

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It was EXACTLY what we were discussing. You seem to recall me arguing McKenzie was a stud or something which was certainly never my position. It was that he was best placed to start in 2022 and would win the competition and start at slot (my original position was actually you'd see something of a jobshare with Crowder due to their differing skillsets but that McKenzie would take the lion share of the snaps because he separated better and Crowder would likely get hurt - that took about 3 games to come to pass). You were arguing not only that McKenzie shouldn't start, but that he wouldn't. He did. And we agreed at the time that career year was not a particularly high bar and that is why I set 500 yards as a target projection. He fell 77 yards short of that. That was the only extent within that conversation to which I was wrong. 

 

I never said he wouldn't start, he was already the starter at that time.  I said he was a gadget player who had no business starting and he wouldn't be anything more than what he had been.  Again, all good though, its not like we were grossly apart on it.  We don't often disagree like that, and it was just that this one disagreement stuck out for me given McKenzie wasn't all that interesting of a topic and we discussed it as much as we did.  We don't often disagree, it was more that.  So I guess it gave me more of an impression that you were higher on McKenzie than maybe you were.  Again, all good though man.  

[MasterStrategist]

14 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Heading into the draft in 2022 I posted about keeping an eye on Shakir and the Bills.  I missed rounds 3 and 4 and came back to the draft right as we were announcing our pick in the 5th having no idea he was still on the board and was stunned when they called his name and thought I misheard it because I figured he would go in rounds 2 or 3.  I was thrilled when we called his name, maybe the most excited I have ever been about a pick that wasn't an early round choice, and I have been maybe his biggest cheerleader since getting here.  Ive got a pretty good track record on WR's around here, and he was one I felt from the get go was going to be different and develop into a great player for us.  

 

Ive posted threads and countless comments about him since we took him, and here is a quote back in early May after the draft showing an example of that belief in him early on and not just since his mini breakout this year.  

 

 

Now after reading that above from May of 2022...watch this highlight video and tell me that doesn't look spot on to how I described hm.  From how he plays as a WR, to how he has some Deebo and AJ Brown in him with the ball in his hands.

 

SHAKIR HIGHLIGHTS CLICK HERE (highly suggest you watch before commenting to at least see what I am referencing)

 

This man is an excellent route runner...has sure hands...runs a 4.43 forty...is shifty...excels with YAC and is tough when running...and he is a smart player.  Most importantly, he has the drive to be great and trains in the offseason with players like Moulds.  His biggest shortcoming is he doesn't have long arms which makes him less of a go up and get it WR, but we don't need him to be that when he is so good at everything else.

 

2023 Stats: 87% Catch Rate, 39 Rec on 45 Targets, 611 Yards (13.5 yards per TARGET - insane), 15.6 YPC, 2 TD's

 

Diggs had 160 targets in 2023 for 1183 yards.  Now I know Diggs is drawing the best of the defense a lot of the times, so its not an apples to apples comparison.  But just out of curiosity, what does Shakir's season look like on 160 targets based on his stats last year?  

 

Diggs:  160 Targets, 107 Rec, 1183 yards, 8 TD's

Shakir:  160 Targets, 139 Rec, 2160 yards, 7 TD's

 

Again, I know that is an unrealistic comparison given the level of defensive attention both got and how Shakir benefits from the extra attention Diggs takes.  BUT...that is a massively different level of efficiency and effectiveness.  And defenses STILL will have to contend with Shakir, what ever rookie we draft, Kincaid, Samuel, Knox, Cook as receiver and Allen running.  So Shakir still should see plenty of opportunities against the defenses moving forward.  

 

I mean, even if he just gets up to 100 targets, that is still a 1,350 yard season, and make no mistake about it, he very well could (and probably should) see 100 targets this year.  He is going to be the ONLY WR with any experience and rapport with Josh entering camp, he definitely caught Josh's attention and the teams last year and became a play making machine who they trust.  This team notoriously likes to ease Rookies in as much as they can, so doubtful any rookie is coming in commanding anywhere near Diggs target share.  

 

Dorsey was an idiot for not using him in 2022 when we needed help bad in the slot...he was a bigger fool for not getting him involved earlier in 2023.  In Joe Bradys first game, Shakir had his first career 100 yard game and would go on to end the season with another one.  Diggs had 0 games with 100 yards during that stretch.  

 

In the aftermath of the Diggs trade...the time is now.  I think you will see Shakir emerge as a legit WR and legit weapon for this team and not only will he break 1000 yards this year, he very well may lead the team in both receptions and yards.  And I think he is one of the reasons they felt confident to trade Diggs now rather than later.  

 

You heard it hear first...and have been hearing it here about him since before the 2022 draft.  

 

#WitnessTheArrival

I hope you're right, but I have doubts.

 

Shakir hasn't shown me that he can consistently beat man coverage or find the openings in zone over 2 years.  Yes, he's young and still could be ascending, but I think he's not far from his ceiling.

 

I look at the acquisition of Samuel and think he's the ideal slot/Swiss army receiver, that we tried to force with Harty/McKenzie previously. 

 

Just not sure if Shakir will even see more targets than LY.  Kincaid has MUCH higher ceiling than Shakir, and by adding Samuel we will have a solid underneath-intermediate targets.

 

I think we're missing 2 legit outside WRs, 1 who is well rounded and the 2nd who can at least be a threat deep.  I just don't see Shakir being successful outside the slot, and there seems to be a plethora of options there now.  

 

We will see how this draft shakes out but I still think Khalil is a solid complementary weapon (like a #4 guy).  I'm hoping Beane doesn't bank on Shakir/Samuel outside, rather that he focuses on drafting two early WRs. 

 

It's the year to use draft capital (that fits the value) on WR.  A position that continues to increase in cap/$ value in FA, and deepest of many recent drafts.  We draft a combo of: Rd 1- Mitchell, Legette, Worthy, Thomas (with a tradeup), Rd 2- Coleman, Tez Walker, someone who surprisingly slides.

 

That would set us up for manageable cap at WR for next 4-5 seasons, focus next years FA/draft on DL again and secondary

[damj]

You may be right. 

 

We still need to address the WR position and not count on his emergence to be the answer.

 

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

 

 

I think we're missing 2 legit outside WRs, 1 who is well rounded and the 2nd who can at least be a threat deep.  I just don't see Shakir being successful outside the slot, and there seems to be a plethora of options there now.  

 

We will see how this draft shakes out but I still think Khalil is a solid complementary weapon (like a #4 guy).  I'm hoping Beane doesn't bank on Shakir/Samuel outside, rather that he focuses on drafting two early WRs. 

 

 

I dont think Brady agrees with you.   At least one of Samuel and Shakir will get a lot of snaps at wideout.  

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

14 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Heading into the draft in 2022 I posted about keeping an eye on Shakir and the Bills.  I missed rounds 3 and 4 and came back to the draft right as we were announcing our pick in the 5th having no idea he was still on the board and was stunned when they called his name and thought I misheard it because I figured he would go in rounds 2 or 3.  I was thrilled when we called his name, maybe the most excited I have ever been about a pick that wasn't an early round choice, and I have been maybe his biggest cheerleader since getting here.  Ive got a pretty good track record on WR's around here, and he was one I felt from the get go was going to be different and develop into a great player for us.  

 

Ive posted threads and countless comments about him since we took him, and here is a quote back in early May after the draft showing an example of that belief in him early on and not just since his mini breakout this year.  

 

 

Now after reading that above from May of 2022...watch this highlight video and tell me that doesn't look spot on to how I described hm.  From how he plays as a WR, to how he has some Deebo and AJ Brown in him with the ball in his hands.

 

SHAKIR HIGHLIGHTS CLICK HERE (highly suggest you watch before commenting to at least see what I am referencing)

 

This man is an excellent route runner...has sure hands...runs a 4.43 forty...is shifty...excels with YAC and is tough when running...and he is a smart player.  Most importantly, he has the drive to be great and trains in the offseason with players like Moulds.  His biggest shortcoming is he doesn't have long arms which makes him less of a go up and get it WR, but we don't need him to be that when he is so good at everything else.

 

2023 Stats: 87% Catch Rate, 39 Rec on 45 Targets, 611 Yards (13.5 yards per TARGET - insane), 15.6 YPC, 2 TD's

 

Diggs had 160 targets in 2023 for 1183 yards.  Now I know Diggs is drawing the best of the defense a lot of the times, so its not an apples to apples comparison.  But just out of curiosity, what does Shakir's season look like on 160 targets based on his stats last year?  

 

Diggs:  160 Targets, 107 Rec, 1183 yards, 8 TD's

Shakir:  160 Targets, 139 Rec, 2160 yards, 7 TD's

 

Again, I know that is an unrealistic comparison given the level of defensive attention both got and how Shakir benefits from the extra attention Diggs takes.  BUT...that is a massively different level of efficiency and effectiveness.  And defenses STILL will have to contend with Shakir, what ever rookie we draft, Kincaid, Samuel, Knox, Cook as receiver and Allen running.  So Shakir still should see plenty of opportunities against the defenses moving forward.  

 

I mean, even if he just gets up to 100 targets, that is still a 1,350 yard season, and make no mistake about it, he very well could (and probably should) see 100 targets this year.  He is going to be the ONLY WR with any experience and rapport with Josh entering camp, he definitely caught Josh's attention and the teams last year and became a play making machine who they trust.  This team notoriously likes to ease Rookies in as much as they can, so doubtful any rookie is coming in commanding anywhere near Diggs target share.  

 

Dorsey was an idiot for not using him in 2022 when we needed help bad in the slot...he was a bigger fool for not getting him involved earlier in 2023.  In Joe Bradys first game, Shakir had his first career 100 yard game and would go on to end the season with another one.  Diggs had 0 games with 100 yards during that stretch.  

 

In the aftermath of the Diggs trade...the time is now.  I think you will see Shakir emerge as a legit WR and legit weapon for this team and not only will he break 1000 yards this year, he very well may lead the team in both receptions and yards.  And I think he is one of the reasons they felt confident to trade Diggs now rather than later.  

 

You heard it hear first...and have been hearing it here about him since before the 2022 draft.  

 

#WitnessTheArrival

People are definitely sleeping on Shakir. I love his physicality and hands. I think he can evolve into more than just a slot WR. I am so excited to see what he can do along w/ Kincaid. Glad Diggs the diva is gone. I want a ball distribution offense 

[Malazan]

I believe Shakir can be very good, but counting on that would be mistake like it was counting on Davis to take a step.

[Alphadawg7]

28 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

You're not wrong

 

for some reason Bills fans lately keep wanting to go cheap offensively and promote/project guys into roles they aren't suited for

 

we saw it w Davis, Knox, and now Shakir I guess is next one up...who is a good player. but he's shouldn't be second option on a Super Bowl contender

 

Yet the back to back reigning Super Bowl champs fielded one of the worst stable of WR's the past 2 years in the league.  

 

And no one wants to go cheap, where you get that from is beyond me.  But you however do want to go nuclear and give away a bounty to get every aging WR potentially available or give up the farm to go get a rookie in what is the richest WR draft maybe ever.  

 

Speaking of giving up the farm to trade up...do you know how many Super Bowl winners had lead WR's drafted in the top 20 picks of the draft in the last 20 years?  Just 2...Mike Evans and 18 years ago Marvin Harrison.  

 

Yet you have been wanting to mortgage our future to move up high in this draft for a WR in what is one of the best WR drafts ever despite that it does not correlate with the kind of success you think it does in the NFL.  Just like how so many people wanted to mortgage our future to go get Henry Ruggs or Jerry Jeudy the year we traded for Diggs and were mad we gave up so much for Diggs instead of trading up for one of them.  They sucked, and the best WR in that draft ended being a guy who would have been there when we picked in Justin Jefferson who did not have nearly as much support here as those guys did and most were not a fan of taking him in the first because he was a "slot" in college.  People like Tee Higgins even less who was drafted in the 2nd round, also substantially better than both Ruggs and Jeudy.  

 

So is not about being cheap, its about you don't have to mortgage your future to get a WR either and doesn't automatically correlate to SB success.  Its also about your draft slot means nothing once the pads go on.  Look at Diggs, Antonio Brown, etc.  Just because Shakir was a 5th rounder doesn't mean he has a low ceiling or we are going "cheap".  

 

Shakir has earned his role thus far, and will continue to have to earn more targets, it won't be handed to him.  

 

 

1 minute ago, Malazan said:

I believe Shakir can be very good, but counting on that would be mistake like it was counting on Davis to take a step.

 

By no means should they count it or not go draft a WR early...We need to add boundary WRs this draft, and I think we might add 2.  

[Tommy Shelby]

Body type and style of play reminds me of Andre Reed.

[Low Positive]

8 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yet the back to back reigning Super Bowl champs fielded one of the worst stable of WR's the past 2 years in the league.  

 

And no one wants to go cheap, where you get that from is beyond me.  But you however do want to go nuclear and give away a bounty to get every aging WR potentially available or give up the farm to go get a rookie in what is the richest WR draft maybe ever.  

 

Speaking of giving up the farm to trade up...do you know how many Super Bowl winners had lead WR's drafted in the top 20 picks of the draft in the last 20 years?  Just 2...Mike Evans and 18 years ago Marvin Harrison.  

 

Yet you have been wanting to mortgage our future to move up high in this draft for a WR in what is one of the best WR drafts ever despite that it does not correlate with the kind of success you think it does in the NFL.  Just like how so many people wanted to mortgage our future to go get Henry Ruggs or Jerry Jeudy the year we traded for Diggs and were mad we gave up so much for Diggs instead of trading up for one of them.  They sucked, and the best WR in that draft ended being a guy who would have been there when we picked in Justin Jefferson who did not have nearly as much support here as those guys did and most were not a fan of taking him in the first because he was a "slot" in college.  People like Tee Higgins even less who was drafted in the 2nd round, also substantially better than both Ruggs and Jeudy.  

 

So is not about being cheap, its about you don't have to mortgage your future to get a WR either and doesn't automatically correlate to SB success.  Its also about your draft slot means nothing once the pads go on.  Look at Diggs, Antonio Brown, etc.  Just because Shakir was a 5th rounder doesn't mean he has a low ceiling or we are going "cheap".  

 

Shakir has earned his role thus far, and will continue to have to earn more targets, it won't be handed to him.  

 

 

 

By no means should they count it or not go draft a WR early...We need to add boundary WRs this draft, and I think we might add 2.  

I agree with all of this, but we have no idea how good or bad Ruggs would have been.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The other issue I have with Shakir outside is that there is no indication that he can track the ball well enough to threaten teams vertically.   He's fast enough but guys who track the ball well catch the ball 40 yards down the field with an ease that's  not much different than how they do it 15 yards down the field.  In limited opportunities he's been a ball dropper and I think I saw one time on his college tape where he actually caught a deep ball in stride.  He likes to stop his feet on longer throws.   I am certain if I can see that he knows it and maybe that's something he can improve but it's a weakness, IMO.

 

But he isn't a ball dropper, he led the NFL for all receivers in catch rate.  He isn't that vertical outside threat, but neither is Deebo Samuel for example who is actually a ball dropper.  But it is what Deebo can do with the ball in his hands that makes him different.  Its also how dangerous he can be in that short to mid zone.  

 

The bigger issue is his shorter arms when it comes to his down field game, he has a lower margin of error on the throw with a smaller catch radius as he isn't the go up and get it WR Diggs was in his similar sized frame.  But he can still attack the deeper part of the field, especially out of the slot.  And as far as stopping his feet, not sure how a WR 40 yards down field stops his feet without the ball going past them unless its to catch an underthrown ball.  If you haven't already, I encourage you to watch the highlight reel in my OP because he makes a lot of his catches in stride down field and he only stops or comes back on underthrown passes.    

[MasterStrategist]

12 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yet the back to back reigning Super Bowl champs fielded one of the worst stable of WR's the past 2 years in the league.  

 

And no one wants to go cheap, where you get that from is beyond me.  But you however do want to go nuclear and give away a bounty to get every aging WR potentially available or give up the farm to go get a rookie in what is the richest WR draft maybe ever.  

 

Speaking of giving up the farm to trade up...do you know how many Super Bowl winners had lead WR's drafted in the top 20 picks of the draft in the last 20 years?  Just 2...Mike Evans and 18 years ago Marvin Harrison.  

 

Yet you have been wanting to mortgage our future to move up high in this draft for a WR in what is one of the best WR drafts ever despite that it does not correlate with the kind of success you think it does in the NFL.  Just like how so many people wanted to mortgage our future to go get Henry Ruggs or Jerry Jeudy the year we traded for Diggs and were mad we gave up so much for Diggs instead of trading up for one of them.  They sucked, and the best WR in that draft ended being a guy who would have been there when we picked in Justin Jefferson who did not have nearly as much support here as those guys did and most were not a fan of taking him in the first because he was a "slot" in college.  People like Tee Higgins even less who was drafted in the 2nd round, also substantially better than both Ruggs and Jeudy.  

 

So is not about being cheap, its about you don't have to mortgage your future to get a WR either and doesn't automatically correlate to SB success.  Its also about your draft slot means nothing once the pads go on.  Look at Diggs, Antonio Brown, etc.  Just because Shakir was a 5th rounder doesn't mean he has a low ceiling or we are going "cheap".  

 

Shakir has earned his role thus far, and will continue to have to earn more targets, it won't be handed to him.  

 

 

 

By no means should they count it or not go draft a WR early...We need to add boundary WRs this draft, and I think we might add 2.  

Honestly, I see your point here and they are solid points.  However, I think using KC as a reference point is a bit off topic.

 

First off, KC has the best TE of all time.  One of the best playcallers/scheming of all time with Reid.  And they have a top 5 OL, and faster/better defense than ours.  More premier players than we have on defense for certain, Jones alone is a game wrecker and a better secondary than ours LY.

 

They've been able to get away with lack of a star WR, for reasons described above, and a more rounded team than ours.  I don't think we will match them in any of the above remarks that I've made, and we don't have to, but we need something special (pass rush, WR weapons, etc) that will propel us in postseason.  

 

I'd rather we load up on WR talent, because Shakir isn't a "special" talent by any means.  He is limited in his routes and until LY, struggled with drops in college too. 

 

I still like him, but I'd hate we make the same mistakes over and over (ie: projecting a minimal stretch of games into full season potential).  This is the year to add premier talent in the draft at WR, I hope Beane agrees.

[HappyDays]

24 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Yet the back to back reigning Super Bowl champs fielded one of the worst stable of WR's the past 2 years in the league.  

 

We can probably just agree not to use the Chiefs as a comparison. They won a Super Bowl four years after drafting a RB in the 1st round, with a below average LT, and without a WR1. That doesn't mean we should draft a RB in the 1st round, jettison Dawkins, and stop trying to upgrade the WR room. It just means that the Chiefs coaching staff is like two tiers above any other coaching staff in the league, and several more tiers than that above our own. That plus an elite QB plus the GOAT TE means they can violate the usual standards of championship team building and get away with it. They are the new Patriots, unfortunately. We are only going to beat them through sheer accumulation of offensive talent.

 

Edited April 5 by HappyDays

[K-9]

14 hours ago, mrags said:

I think he’s a lock for our slot WR. And fully expect him to be as good or better than Beasley at his best on the Bills. At a minimum, assuming he’s healthy all season, I fully expect 80+ receptions, 800+ yards, and 7+ TDs. 

The only thing that would prevent him from being Beasley 2.0 is whether or not he understands the game on the same level as Beasley. IMO, not many receivers do as it really requires a QB’s depth of understanding, which is what Beasley had growing up with a coach for a dad, breaking down film from an early age, and playing the position in high school. Beasley had a keen understanding of the “why” of the defense and his pre and post snap reads allowed him to regularly find the open spots in coverage. 
 

All that said, I think your expectations for Khalil are reasonable. 

[GoBills808]

11 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yet the back to back reigning Super Bowl champs fielded one of the worst stable of WR's the past 2 years in the league.  

 

And no one wants to go cheap, where you get that from is beyond me.  But you however do want to go nuclear and give away a bounty to get every aging WR potentially available or give up the farm to go get a rookie in what is the richest WR draft maybe ever.  

 

Speaking of giving up the farm to trade up...do you know how many Super Bowl winners had lead WR's drafted in the top 20 picks of the draft in the last 20 years?  Just 2...Mike Evans and 18 years ago Marvin Harrison.  

 

Yet you have been wanting to mortgage our future to move up high in this draft for a WR in what is one of the best WR drafts ever despite that it does not correlate with the kind of success you think it does in the NFL.  Just like how so many people wanted to mortgage our future to go get Henry Ruggs or Jerry Jeudy the year we traded for Diggs and were mad we gave up so much for Diggs instead of trading up for one of them.  They sucked, and the best WR in that draft ended being a guy who would have been there when we picked in Justin Jefferson who did not have nearly as much support here as those guys did and most were not a fan of taking him in the first because he was a "slot" in college.  People like Tee Higgins even less who was drafted in the 2nd round, also substantially better than both Ruggs and Jeudy.  

 

So is not about being cheap, its about you don't have to mortgage your future to get a WR either and doesn't automatically correlate to SB success.  Its also about your draft slot means nothing once the pads go on.  Look at Diggs, Antonio Brown, etc.  Just because Shakir was a 5th rounder doesn't mean he has a low ceiling or we are going "cheap".  

 

Shakir has earned his role thus far, and will continue to have to earn more targets, it won't be handed to him.  

 

 

 

By no means should they count it or not go draft a WR early...We need to add boundary WRs this draft, and I think we might add 2.  

The back to back reigning SB champs have as their first option a HoF probably best to ever play the position TE and another HoF probably best to ever call the offense HC. Let's not pretend that the state of the Chiefs WR room has any relevance to the Bills

 

the rest is similarly irrelevant...saying Jeudy 'sucks' but Shakir has a high ceiling is funny tho

 

I get that you like Shakir. I do too. I just think he's pretty capped physically and shouldn't be expected to carry a big role

[GASabresIUFan]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Nice thread, guys.   Interesting discussion.  

 

I get Dawg's theory, but I'm not yet convinced that Shakir can be that guy.   He needs to take another step, and I'm not sure that's happening.   

 

I do think there's a a hidden benefit to Diggs' departure along the lines of what Dawg said, which is that the Bills no longer have a receiver who's demanding targets.  And he did demand targets.   It was quite obvious that the game plan always included early throws to Diggs, and I think those targets were intended to keep him happy, not necessarily to cause the defense to focus on him. 

 

My guess is that Shakir is an important piece in what we'll see from Brady's offense.   I think we're going to see receivers running slants, crossers, quick outs, the occasional wheel route out of the backfield, and wideouts going deep when the defense leave them in favorable matchups.   Shakir can do all of that.   Samuel can do all of that.   Kincaid more or less does all of that.   And I think there's likely to be a rookie out there doing the same things.   I think it's going to look like what the Lions and the 49ers did last season with a bunch of receivers who run good routes and who like having the ball in their hands.   The receptions will be spread around among a lot of guys.

 

Who's going to lead that group?   Well, the Bills have to replace the 1900 receiving yards that Diggs and Davis got last season.   Kincaid will get some, maybe 300.  The rookie will get 500 (unless the Bills make a major move and get one of the big three in the draft).   Shakir and Samuel both had 600 yards last season, and they will get most of the 1100 additional yards that need to be recovered.   My money would be on Samuel being the 2024 leading receiver at 1300, with Shakir second around 1000, but I could see it fall the other way.  

 

The key is it doesn't matter any longer who gets the lions shares of the targets or yards.  Allen has finally been let out of Diggs jail.  He can now scan the field and throw to whomever is open without worrying that Diggs is going to be whining on the sidelines.

 

Brady's plan next season is to spread the ball around like GB did last season.  GB's was lead in receiving yards last season on a game by game basis by 9 different skills players (5 different WRs, 2 different TEs and 2 different RBs).   The Bills did have 5 different leaders by year's end, but that was only because Brady starting distributing the ball.  Diggs was the leading receiver 5 of the first 6 weeks, but only twice the remainder of the season. 

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

I agree with all of this, but we have no idea how good or bad Ruggs would have been.

 

Fair, but he didn't do much of anything as a rookie that he was expected to do.  Admittedly, I was not high on him coming out of the draft, so I am more critical of his rookie year and off the field stupidity.  

[Low Positive]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Fair, but he didn't do much of anything as a rookie that he was expected to do.  Admittedly, I was not high on him coming out of the draft, so I am more critical of his rookie year and off the field stupidity.  

He was on pace for over a thousand yards before he got drunk at Top Golf. 

[PBF81]

It's a great forecast, let's hope it's true.  Would be a first for a Beane draft pick though.  

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

31 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Honestly, I see your point here and they are solid points.  However, I think using KC as a reference point is a bit off topic.

 

First off, KC has the best TE of all time.  One of the best playcallers/scheming of all time with Reid.  And they have a top 5 OL, and faster/better defense than ours.  More premier players than we have on defense for certain, Jones alone is a game wrecker and a better secondary than ours LY.

 

They've been able to get away with lack of a star WR, for reasons described above, and a more rounded team than ours.  I don't think we will match them in any of the above remarks that I've made, and we don't have to, but we need something special (pass rush, WR weapons, etc) that will propel us in postseason.  

 

I'd rather we load up on WR talent, because Shakir isn't a "special" talent by any means.  He is limited in his routes and until LY, struggled with drops in college too. 

 

I still like him, but I'd hate we make the same mistakes over and over (ie: projecting a minimal stretch of games into full season potential).  This is the year to add premier talent in the draft at WR, I hope Beane agrees.

 

28 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

We can probably just agree not to use the Chiefs as a comparison. They won a Super Bowl four years after drafting a RB in the 1st round, with a below average LT, and without a WR1. That doesn't mean we should draft a RB in the 1st round, jettison Dawkins, and stop trying to upgrade the WR room. It just means that the Chiefs coaching staff is like two tiers above any other coaching staff in the league, and several more tiers than that above our own. That plus an elite QB plus the GOAT TE means they can violate the usual standards of championship team building and get away with it. They are the new Patriots, unfortunately. We are only going to beat them through sheer accumulation of offensive talent.

 

 

I dont disagree with either of you, and I am totally team go get a WR, and have been before the Diggs trade.  My only real point is that I am pretty sure there is no team that has ever won a Super Bowl from trading a bounty to get a WR. 

 

So while I am all for making a move up in this draft, I am just not for gutting our future to do so as many have suggested in other threads.  I am even willing to use our first next year now that we have 2 second rounders to get someone like Nabers, Odunze, or Thomas if the opportunity is there.  But I am seeing people wanting to send 1st and 2nd rounders both this year and next year, and even some with more picks than that included.  That is a QB level trade up compensation.  You only spend that kind of money to get franchise altering players like a QB.  

 

  

[SoonerBillsFan]

15 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Heading into the draft in 2022 I posted about keeping an eye on Shakir and the Bills.  I missed rounds 3 and 4 and came back to the draft right as we were announcing our pick in the 5th having no idea he was still on the board and was stunned when they called his name and thought I misheard it because I figured he would go in rounds 2 or 3.  I was thrilled when we called his name, maybe the most excited I have ever been about a pick that wasn't an early round choice, and I have been maybe his biggest cheerleader since getting here.  Ive got a pretty good track record on WR's around here, and he was one I felt from the get go was going to be different and develop into a great player for us.  

 

Ive posted threads and countless comments about him since we took him, and here is a quote back in early May after the draft showing an example of that belief in him early on and not just since his mini breakout this year.  

 

 

Now after reading that above from May of 2022...watch this highlight video and tell me that doesn't look spot on to how I described hm.  From how he plays as a WR, to how he has some Deebo and AJ Brown in him with the ball in his hands.

 

SHAKIR HIGHLIGHTS CLICK HERE (highly suggest you watch before commenting to at least see what I am referencing)

 

This man is an excellent route runner...has sure hands...runs a 4.43 forty...is shifty...excels with YAC and is tough when running...and he is a smart player.  Most importantly, he has the drive to be great and trains in the offseason with players like Moulds.  His biggest shortcoming is he doesn't have long arms which makes him less of a go up and get it WR, but we don't need him to be that when he is so good at everything else.

 

2023 Stats: 87% Catch Rate, 39 Rec on 45 Targets, 611 Yards (13.5 yards per TARGET - insane), 15.6 YPC, 2 TD's

 

Diggs had 160 targets in 2023 for 1183 yards.  Now I know Diggs is drawing the best of the defense a lot of the times, so its not an apples to apples comparison.  But just out of curiosity, what does Shakir's season look like on 160 targets based on his stats last year?  

 

Diggs:  160 Targets, 107 Rec, 1183 yards, 8 TD's

Shakir:  160 Targets, 139 Rec, 2160 yards, 7 TD's

 

Again, I know that is an unrealistic comparison given the level of defensive attention both got and how Shakir benefits from the extra attention Diggs takes.  BUT...that is a massively different level of efficiency and effectiveness.  And defenses STILL will have to contend with Shakir, what ever rookie we draft, Kincaid, Samuel, Knox, Cook as receiver and Allen running.  So Shakir still should see plenty of opportunities against the defenses moving forward.  

 

I mean, even if he just gets up to 100 targets, that is still a 1,350 yard season, and make no mistake about it, he very well could (and probably should) see 100 targets this year.  He is going to be the ONLY WR with any experience and rapport with Josh entering camp, he definitely caught Josh's attention and the teams last year and became a play making machine who they trust.  This team notoriously likes to ease Rookies in as much as they can, so doubtful any rookie is coming in commanding anywhere near Diggs target share.  

 

Dorsey was an idiot for not using him in 2022 when we needed help bad in the slot...he was a bigger fool for not getting him involved earlier in 2023.  In Joe Bradys first game, Shakir had his first career 100 yard game and would go on to end the season with another one.  Diggs had 0 games with 100 yards during that stretch.  

 

In the aftermath of the Diggs trade...the time is now.  I think you will see Shakir emerge as a legit WR and legit weapon for this team and not only will he break 1000 yards this year, he very well may lead the team in both receptions and yards.  And I think he is one of the reasons they felt confident to trade Diggs now rather than later.  

 

You heard it hear first...and have been hearing it here about him since before the 2022 draft.  

 

#WitnessTheArrival

We will see.  Now he will be game planned for and DB'S and DC's will have game film on him.  It's different when you are one of the guys vs. The #3 or 4 guy they think about.

 

I hope he is everything you think he will be and more.  Just don't be disappointed if he isnt.

[Alphadawg7]

9 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

We will see.  Now he will be game planned for and DB'S and DC's will have game film on him.  It's different when you are one of the guys vs. The #3 or 4 guy they think about.

 

I hope he is everything you think he will be and more.  Just don't be disappointed if he isnt.

 

Absolutely fair points...the way I see it though is that this offense has more talent on it than people give it credit for now and will be adding more talent to the WR group here shortly.  And with the spread the ball around offense we have, its going to be hard for them to key on Shakir maybe much more than they have because Kincaid is likely going to be even better, Samuel is still got to be considered, and whatever outside WR(s) we add are as well like in the draft or maybe by trade (but most likely early in the draft).