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How do the team's moves so far impact the Bill's draft needs?


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After the giant cap dump of White, Poyer, Morse, Bates (trade), Harty, and Hines coupled with the loss of Davis, Dobson, Floyd and possibly Jones to free agency it was pretty clear the Bills were going younger and cheaper for this coming season. Thank G-d.

 

However the moves created roster holes at C, 2 starting safeties, Edge rusher, DT and boundary WR, among other depth issues.  With 11 draft picks, you have to figure that much of the needed depth was going to through the draft.  Add that both OTs were on one year deals, and 2 of the 3 starting CBs are on one year deals, you start to get a feel for where our draft priorities maybe.

 

However, Beane has already erased many of the starting needs by moving McGovern to center and re-signing Edwards to replace McGovern at guard.  He has extended Dawkins to lock one of the two starting OTs.  He has also re-signed Rapp and Epenesa to fill starter openings at S and Edge.  These moves leave one starting safety job open and one starting DT still available.  He also re-signed Trubisky to be Josh's backup for the next two years.

 

Besides the two D starters, what these moves haven't done yet is fill the depth needs at RB, or finding at boundary WR, or added further depth along the D Line.

 

How do these moves affect the draft?  One note: Losing the 3rd rd comp pick is a real kick in the ........  I wouldn't be surprised to see Beane use some picks to get back into the 3rd round.

 

QB - I can see a QB drafted late to serve as a developmental player. 

RB - Beane likes to draft RBs and there are some interesting RBs who will be available on day 3.  I'd also still like to see Ty Johnson return.

WR - I don't see Davis' replacement coming through free agency.  I expect our 1st pick to be a WR.  I'm also hoping they take another guy late, but that may depend on how they feel about Shorter.

OL - I thought center was going to be a sneaky need, but now we could see an OG earlier than thought to compete with Edwards for the starting job.  I can also see a developmental OT on day 3 especially if they aren't happy with Doyle, Anderson or Van Denmark long-term.

 

DL - The Epenesa signing gives us 5 DL heading into next season in Oliver, Rosseau, Miller, Espensa, and Jonathan.  I think they like Cline as well.  Still that's 3 short of the team's needs.  I'm expecting at least one DT and one Edge player in the draft, as well as another FA or two.  Re-signing Jones or finding a FA replacement has to be a priority as  Beane and McD like to rotate rookies in on the Dline.

LB - We need a late round guy to play special teams.

CB - Lewis is a special teamer and I think they have hopes Elam improves enough to take over for Douglas in a year.  Still Johnson is still on the last year of his deal and we need  at least one developmental player in case Johnson leaves and/or Elam doesn't develop

S - I'd like to see two guys  

 

If I had to guess right now. (No idea after that)

28 - WR - Mitchell, Thomas, McConkey etc...

60 - S - Bullard, Kitchens, Bullock

127 

133

143

159

162 

188

199

203

248

   

Edited by GASabresIUFan
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  • GASabresIUFan changed the title to How do the team's moves so far impact the Bill's draft needs?

It overall doesn't.  You could argue they will want to draft a G/C, but I think that was already the case before Morse was released.  


The team needs overall stay the same before we made out cuts.  We knew Poyer/Hyde's replacements were going to be drafted.  We knew our D-Line was going to be decimated by FA. 

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5 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

You said they lost Dodson…did he sign with someone today?

No but with Milano, Benard, Williams and Spector under contract it is doubtful (but not impossible) that they are going to bring him back.

Edited by GASabresIUFan
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10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

After the giant cap dump of White, Poyer, Morse, Bates (trade), Harty, and Hines coupled with the loss of Davis, Dobson, Floyd and possibly Jones to free agency it was pretty clear the Bills were going younger and cheaper for this coming season. Thank G-d.

 

However the moves created roster holes at C, 2 starting safeties, Edge rusher, DT and boundary WR, among other depth issue.  With 11 draft picks, you have to figure that much of the needed depth was going to through the draft.  Add that both OTs were on one year deals, and both starting CBs are on one year deals, you start to get a feel for where our draft priorities maybe.

 

However, Beane has already erased many of the starting needs by moving McGovern to center and re-signing Edwards to replace McGovern at guard.  He has extended Dawkins to lock one of the two starting OTs.  He has also re-signed Rapp and Epenesa to fill starter openings at S and Edge.  These moves leave one starting safety job open and one starting DT still available.  He also re-signed Trubisky to be Josh's backup for the next two years.

 

Besides the two D starters, what these moves haven't done yet is fill the depth needs at RB, or finding at boundary WR, or added further depth along the D Line.

 

How do these moves affect the draft?  One note: Losing the 3rd rd comp pick is a real kick in the ........  I wouldn't be surprised to see Beane use some picks to get back into the 3rd round.

 

QB - I can see a QB drafted late to serve as a developmental player. 

RB - Beane likes to draft RBs and there are some interesting RBs who will be available on day 3.  I'd also still like to see Ty Johnson return.

WR - I don't see Davis' replacement coming through free agency.  I expect our 1st pick to be a WR.  I'm also hoping they take another guy late, but that may depend on how they   

        feel about Shorter.

OL - I thought center was going to be a sneaky need, but now we could see an OG earlier than thought to compete with Edwards for the starting job.  I can also see a

        developmental OT on day 3 especially if they aren't happy with Doyle, Anderson or Van Denmark long-term.

 

DL - The Epenesa signing gives us 5 DL heading into next season in Oliver, Rosseau, Miller, Espensa, and Jonathan.  I think they like Cline as well.  Still that's 3 short of the team's

        needs.  I'm expecting at least one DT and one Edge player in the draft, as well as another FA or two.  Re-signing Jones or finding a FA replacement has to be a priority as   

        Beane and McD like to rotate rookies in on the Dline.

LB - We need a late round guy to play special teams.

CB - Lewis is a special teamer and I think they have hopes Elam improves enough to take over for Douglas in a year.  Still Johnson is still on the last year of his deal and we need           at least one developmental player in case Johnson leaves and/or Elam doesn't develop

S - I'd like to see two guys  

 

If I had to guess right now. (No idea after that)

28 - WR - Mitchell, Thomas, McConkey etc...

60 - S - Bullard, Kitchens, Bullock

127 

133

143

159

162 

188

199

203

248

   


 

Good post, would absolutely hate it if they gave up a 3rd rounder for a year and a half of Douglas to hold Elam’s, a first rounder, spot as a boundary CB… Hope they keep him around unless he absolutely bombs in play quality this year. 

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I would not be surprised that Bills will package the 5 and 6 round picks to somehow get back into the 3rd round from some team.  It could possibly even be SF or Philly with all the comp picks they received.

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1 minute ago, SCBills said:

Our WR room is absolutely hilarious right now and we have one DT.  

Those two positions are sirens blaring attention needed. 

 

 

And as it happens, there's very good depth at WR in the draft, and pretty good depth at DT, though not so great at 1T.

I think they take WR early, at least 1 S, and 2 DL. I'm sure they'll take a mid-round RB, as well.

Personally, I don't like the edge players. Take a flyer late, I suppose, but I would spend my DL picks at DT.

 

Lot of good free agent safeties. I bet you can get someone decent on the cheap if you wait on that.

In the draft, I hope they take a UGA safety. Bullard early, or Smith later, though I like that fella Bishop from Utah as well.

 

My spidey sense, which could be way off, is suggesting that Beane may be more aggressive in the first than folks anticipate.

I'm not sure he's going to wait at #28 for the sixth WR off the board.

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13 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Our WR room is absolutely hilarious right now and we have one DT.  

Those two positions are sirens blaring attention needed. 

 

 

But which one needs to get better faster?

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

 

My spidey sense, which could be way off, is suggesting that Beane may be more aggressive in the first than folks anticipate.

I'm not sure he's going to wait at #28 for the sixth WR off the board.

I hope so.  Unlike last year, he needs to get ahead of the run on receivers.

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Probably two project oline for Kromer to work with 

Two WRs probably two of the first 4 picks

One RB even though I think they really are happy with Damien Harris as the guy behind Jimbo 

That leaves 6 picks for the defensive side of the ball 2-3 dlinemen

A Lb for depth and 2 for the secondary 

 Thats of course if they do nothing in free agency and decide to just maintain their picks to get them on rookie contracts and judging by how Beane is operating that’s probably what he’ll do. 

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40 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Doesn't change anything for me.

My plan was bring back Jones which may still happen.

Then draft WR, Edge, WR with top 3 picks

Bringing back Epenesa is dumb. Hate the move. It however may signal Jones is not coming back and they will draft DT instead of edge.

And they brought them both back. Good news. WR, S, Edge, C/OG, DL, OT, LB. 

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4 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

With DQ signed, DT should be removed from Round 1 consideration unless Murphy drops but he wont.

 

WR is the clear pick.

DT likely moves to an early day 3 slot.  Looks like WR and Safety are the most pressing needs and that matches where the depth in this draft is.  

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14 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

And they brought them both back. Good news. WR, S, Edge, C/OG, DL, OT, LB. 

I agree with some of this list. I would just move edge to second round and safety to 3rd or fourth round. I am all for drafting two WRs. I agree with C/G. I would pass on OT and draft another CB or RB. Depth LB for special teams makes sense. 

I also would still draft the best punter and cut Martin

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8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

DT likely moves to an early day 3 slot.  Looks like WR and Safety are the most pressing needs and that matches where the depth in this draft is.  


there are so many safeties in free agency. I’d think a mid level - high level starter is possible along with a decent backup and a draft pick

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Taylor Rapp covers 1 of our 2 starting Safety holes

 

Daquan Jones covers our starting 1T hole

 

AJ Epenesa covers the role of DE3/possible DE2 insurance in the event of Von being well and truly done

 

This leaves our major holes being Starting WR opposite Diggs and Starting Safety opposite Rapp. There's other holes like Rotational DT's behind Oliver and Jones, RB2/3, WR4/5, DE4, MLB2, CB4, and Backup Interior OL and OT.

 

But as far as Round 1 goes - it was always looking like WR and Free Agency thus far has emphasized it even more.

Edited by BillsFanForever19
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2 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

Taylor Rapp covers 1 of our 2 starting Safety holes

 

Daquan Jones covers our starting 1T hole

 

AJ Epenesa covers the role of DE3/possible DE2 insurance in the event of Von being well and truly done

 

This leaves our major holes being Starting WR opposite Diggs and Starting Safety opposite Rapp. There's other holes like Rotational DT's behind Oliver and Jones, RB2, WR4/5, DE4, and Backup OG and OT.

 

But as far as Round 1 goes - it was always looking like WR and Free Agency thus far has emphasized it even more.


Is there a Center in the draft that’s a surefire solid starter? That could be something as well 

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2 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:


Is there a Center in the draft that’s a surefire solid starter? That could be something as well 

 

I mean, with them specifically telling the media that the plan is to start McGovern at Center and have Edwards start in his place at Guard - I don't see Center being something they're going to address highly in the Draft. Maybe in the mid Rounds. But I don't see it being something done very high.

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6 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I mean, with them specifically telling the media that the plan is to start McGovern at Center and have Edwards start in his place at Guard - I don't see Center being something they're going to address highly in the Draft. Maybe in the mid Rounds. But I don't see it being something done very high.

We're not drafting a C any earlier than the 5th round.

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We have more than one safety hole.  Rapp was signed and Hamlin is on the roster, but there is a real chance he doesn't make the team.  We need another starter and one or two players behind the starters who can develop and be ready to take over starters jobs in a year or two.  

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11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

We have more than one safety hole.  Rapp was signed and Hamlin is on the roster, but there is a real chance he doesn't make the team.  We need another starter and one or two players behind the starters who can develop and be ready to take over starters jobs in a year or two.  

 

Cam Lewis is versatile and played more Safety than he did CB last season. And I'd suspect he was re-signed with Safety in mind. Joe Buscaglia has even predicted he could Start for us. Though I wouldn't go that far, I do think he's a Safety on the Depth Chart this season.

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2 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Cam Lewis is versatile and played more Safety than he did CB last season. And I'd suspect he was re-signed with Safety in mind. Joe Buscaglia has even predicted he could Start for us. Though I wouldn't go that far, I do think he's a Safety on the Depth Chart this season.

 I doubt it.  He only played 144 snaps on defense last year (13.4%).  By comparison Rapp played 421 (39.3%).  Dane Jackson played 463 (43.2%).  Hamlin played only 17 snaps total, which is why I think he won't make the team.  Lewis is fine for emergency use, but isn't stepping in for anyone long-term.

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6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

 I doubt it.  He only played 144 snaps on defense last year (13.4%).  By comparison Rapp played 421 (39.3%).  Dane Jackson played 463 (43.2%).  Hamlin played only 17 snaps total, which is why I think he won't make the team.  Lewis is fine for emergency use, but isn't stepping in for anyone long-term.

 

Yes, because he was essentially Safety 4 last season, playing being Hyde, Poyer, Rapp, and in place of Hamlin.

 

While I doubt he'll Start, he probably will be Safety 3 this season. Just because he only took 144 snaps doesn't mean they don't feel he's in line for a promotion from that role this season.

 

Saying you don't think Lewis can be Safety 3 based on his usage last season is like saying you don't think Rapp can start because he only took 421 snaps as a Safety last season compared to Poyer's 987.

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Yes, because he was essentially Safety 4 last season, playing being Hyde, Poyer, Rapp, and in place of Hamlin.

 

While I doubt he'll Start, he probably will be Safety 3 this season. Just because he only took 144 snaps doesn't mean they don't feel he's in line for a promotion from that role this season.

 

Saying you don't think Lewis can be Safety 3 based on his usage last season is like saying you don't think Rapp can start because he only took 421 snaps as a Safety last season compared to Poyer's 987.

I do have concerns about him being an effective 17 game starter.  There were times last year where he was a head hunter and missed tackles because of it (and got a few bad penalties).  His grades last year by both the Athletic and PFF were not great.  In fact, of the 36 Bills who played 200 or more snaps on either D or O, Rapp was 31st according to the Athletic.  They gave him a 2.5 grade out of 4 and PFF gave him a 56 out of 100.

 

 

 

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Just now, GASabresIUFan said:

I do have concerns about him being an effective 17 game starter.  There were times last year where he was a head hunter and missed tackles because of it (and got a few bad penalties).  His grades last year by both the Athletic and PFF were not great.  In fact, of the 36 Bills who played 200 or more snaps on either D or O, Rapp was 31st according to the Athletic.  They gave him a 2.5 grade out of 4 and PFF gave him a 56 out of 100.

 

That's fair. I don't necessarily agree with Joe B. that he could start for us. I'd prefer another vet or a Top Prospect on Day 2 opposite Rapp.

 

But I do think Lewis was re-signed as a Safety. And along with Rapp and Hamlin (at least for the time being) - I do think Starting Safety opposite Rapp is the only Safety hole we *currently* have.

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Round #1 - WR (4.3 speed or better) diggs, kincaid and shakir have the underneath

Round #2 - DL (beane cant help himself ) currently rousseau, epenesa, von, ed, daquan

Round #3 - NONE

Round #4 - OL ( bills have no depth right now)

Round #4 - Safety

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  • 2 weeks later...

I thought i'd bump this thread.

 

We have signed 2 WRs (Samuel 3 years, Hollins 1yr), 2 Safeties (Rapp 3 years & Edwards 1 year) and re-signed 2 key DL in Jones (2 years) and Epenesa (2 years).  We also extended Dawkins and T Johnson.  Key players on one year deals: Douglas (CB), Brown (DT).  Keys Players who could be cut after 2024: Diggs (WR) and Miller (Edge).  So far, Ty Johnson is the only RB behind Cook

 

Given this back drop what positions will the Bills target?

WR - This still has to be the highest priority even with 5 WRs currently on the roster.  Hollins is more a special teams players and we have no one to stretch the field.  1st pick.  Mitchel, Thomas, Coleman, Worthy, McConkey and even Burton interest me here

 

S - Neither Rapp or Edwards were starters last year and both played about 50% of their team's downs last season.  This is the weakest area on the team and the draft is full of safeties.  Edwards shares his job last year with a younger player (Cook) in KC, I don't see a reason McD won't do the same with a high drafted rookie.  2nd or 3rd rd (if we get one). Bullard, Bullock, Brade, Hicks, Kinchens, etc....  Tons of choice.  Later round sleeper - Tykee Smith

 

Edge - Miller is likely gone after next season.  This creates an opportunity to draft a kid now and develop him into a starter.  They like Jonathan, but enough not to draft another player?  Kamara, Kneeland & Eboigde

 

DT - Depth is the key here and we don't have much behind Oliver and Jones and Jones spent much of the last year injured. Sweat, Hall, Fiske, Wingo

 

OT - Depends on what they think about Van Denmark and the ability to afford to keep Brown.  Rosengarten mid to late looks very interesting. 

 

OG/C - Torrence is young.  Edwards was re-signed for two years.  Anderson is already on the roster.  Looks fine so far, but what if the McGovern to center experiment doesn't work or Edwards gets caved at guard as a starter?   I think they need more depth here.   Van Pran, Bortolini, Nugent

 

CB - Douglas is the key.  I was surprised they didn't extend him contract this off-season.  That means either they think Elam can take over long-term or they need to draft a long-term replacement.

 

RB - Cook, Johnson (1 yr deal) and ........? Beane will be drafting a RB.  Kendall Milton late?

 

LB - I think we are set here. 

 

QB - Once they signed Trubisky for two years, I guess they'll look at QB in 2025.

 

TE - Doubt it.

 

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3 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Tier 1 need   -  WR   W I D E  R E C E I V E R 

 

Tier 2 need -  DT,  General Offensive Weapon  

 

Tier 3 need -  S,  C / OG,  OT Depth, RB 

 

Tier 4 need -  Edge Rusher,  CB,  LB 

 

I'm confused by Tier 1 being WR, Tier 3 being RB, and Tier 2 being "General Offensive Weapon". The only other "offensive weapon" besides WR is RB (which you list in Tier 3) and TE (which we absolutely do not need). Are you saying Tier 1 is an Outside WR and Tier 2 is an Inside or Inside/Outside WR? I mean, even that is probably something we don't need as Samuel is an Inside/Outside tweener and Kincaid and Shakir are Inside guys.

Edited by BillsFanForever19
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22 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I'm confused by Tier 1 being WR, Tier 3 being RB, and Tier 2 being "General Offensive Weapon". The only other "offensive weapon" besides WR is RB (which you list in Tier 3) and TE (which we absolutely do not need). Are you saying Tier 1 is an Outside WR and Tier 2 is an Inside or Inside/Outside WR? I mean, even that is probably something we don't need as Samuel is an Inside/Outside tweener and Kincaid and Shakir are Inside guys.

I can't explain it, but I think OL should be moved up to tier 2. Not sure they will pay Brown; Dawkins is still solid, but not young.

And Oline has some depth this draft. More depth at Oline helps keep the wall in front of Josh stout.

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On 3/11/2024 at 10:26 PM, Virgil said:

It overall doesn't.  You could argue they will want to draft a G/C, but I think that was already the case before Morse ...

Agree. I don't like having to rely on the assumption that McGovern is a center and Edwards is as effective as McGovern at guard. 

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On 3/11/2024 at 10:51 PM, Toyo321 said:

I would not be surprised that Bills will package the 5 and 6 round picks to somehow get back into the 3rd round from some team.  It could possibly even be SF or Philly with all the comp picks they received.

All 5 of their 4th and 5th rounders would technically be enough to get back into the middle of the 3rd. But no team is going to want 5 more late picks.

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Looking at the Bills current roster and the trend of how many and what type of players the team carries on the roster I think you are looking at the Bills likely being able to roster 9 maybe 10 draft picks. 
 

Positions where they can likely roster a draft pick or two. This is in no order.

 

1- WR: Bills usually carry 5-6 WR’s they have 3 players who are locks in Diggs, Samuel and Shakir and they have another player who is strongly likely to make it in Hollins. Justin Shorter is also there and will likely be given a good chance to make the roster. The Bills could add a 6th WR both for added depth and to develop an heir apparent for Diggs. Also I don’t think Shorter is enough of a quality WR that they shouldn’t pass on taking additional depth there.

 

2- RB - Cook and Ty Johnson are a solid 1-2 combo but the Bills usually roster 3 RB’s and probably could use depth and special teams help by filling this RB3 role in the draft.

 

3 and 4 Offensive Line - The Bills usually carry about 9-10 offensive line players. Dawkins, Edwards, McGovern, Torrence and Brown are the starters while Van Denmark and Alex Anderson are the current depth. Right now they could easily roster two picks here and likely should try to find a starting center or guard to take Edwards out of the starting lineup and move him to the bench.

 

5 and 6 DT - I am assuming they will sign at least one rotational DT but given that the Bills carry 5 DT’s they probably will have room for at least one draft selection if not two if they don’t sign more than one DT. 
 

7- DE - The Bills DE rotation is AJE, Von, Groot, Kingsley Jonathan and Toohill. They usually carry six DE’s and can likely add a pick to pad out the rotation and help add a long term piece.

 

8- Safety - Bills carry about 5 safeties. Right now they have 4 with the starting combo being Edwards and Rapp. Hamlin and Cam Lewis are on the bench. They likely will want to add a young player to add more depth and long term take over one of the spots.

 

9- Corner - Bills carry about 6 corners. Right now they have Douglas, Benford, Taron, Elam and Ingram. Easily can at least roster one more CB if not two depending on how they feel about Ingram.

 

I could see them spending late round picks at LB or TE to add competition for Spector and Morris but I don’t think they want to risk what happened last season where they lose draft picks to waivers. I think they could also draft a kicker or punter late but for whatever reason I don’t think they will do that.

 

1 hour ago, In Summary said:

Agree. I don't like having to rely on the assumption that McGovern is a center and Edwards is as effective as McGovern at guard. 


That’s my feeling. The Bills finally last season properly invested in the offensive line adding the best guard in the draft and adding McGovern to anchor the other guard spot while adding Edwards for depth. 
 

They even brought in Snell and Quessenberry to compete with Brown. But I don’t like how they gutting the line depth by cutting Morse and trading Bates and now have inserted Edwards as a starter. 
 

Ideally I would love to see the Bills address offensive line twice in the draft. But I fear they are very comfortable with what they have and will only be drafting for depth.

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