Gabe plans to test free agency

[boyst]

2 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

Yeah right, Bumuda Tryhardangle 😂

EasternD'ohBillsFan

[EasternOHBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, boyst said:

EasternD'ohBillsFan

 

Me this morning

 

[Eastport bills]

I like Gabe and I see him having a good NFL career but he’s not a good fit for us after the rookie contract. We need a more dynamic #2 that can stretch the field.

[boyst]

1 minute ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

Me this morning

 

Same. Volvo truck NA HQ is nearby so many of our colleagues were there and brought over the Fika concept (a  swedish tradition of meeting over coffee and snacks). Today was my day to buy and we gorged ourselves of doughnuts and muffins. 

 

It's almost always junk food but I usually bring vege and fruit trays.lol

[EasternOHBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, boyst said:

Same. Volvo truck NA HQ is nearby so many of our colleagues were there and brought over the Fika concept (a  swedish tradition of meeting over coffee and snacks). Today was my day to buy and we gorged ourselves of doughnuts and muffins. 

 

It's almost always junk food but I usually bring vege and fruit trays.lol

 

We hit the Dunkin twice a day as our vice, coffee and a donut. Well the Norwegian/Swedish way is pastries and breads, but they eat in moderation while we usually stuff our faces LOL

[BuffaloBillyG]

21 hours ago, DasNootz said:

I am interested to see what he gets.   There are 5-10 other FAs WRs that I'd rather have if money was close.  I have no clue what each will make, but there are options.

This FA class has
Tee Higgins
Michael Pittman Jr
Mike Evans
Marquise Brown
Calvin Ridley
Curtis Samuel
Darnell Mooney
OBJ
Tyler boyd


 

If I were to lay a bet now, the top 3 names Higgins, Pittman and Evans will end up staying where they are.

 

I'm almost expecting Higgins to get slapped with the tag. I would expect the Colts to do the same if a deal cannot be worked out. And Evans will test the market, but I bet he stays in the only city he's ever played for.  Even if 1-3 of them actually hit the market I think a team like the Jets will be more than happy to vastly overpay. I do see Gabe landing a deal in the ballpark of what Lazard got with the Jets last off season.

 

There should be a lot of solid 2nd level guys out there, though of which Gabe is a member. What may hurt his odds of a huge payday even more than the FA market is the deep WR draft class incoming. 

 

Looking at the last 5-6 years of draft classes, talented WRs are becoming a dime a dozen. Only a matter of time before FA the market reflects that.

[boyst]

3 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

We hit the Dunkin twice a day as our vice, coffee and a donut. Well the Norwegian/Swedish way is pastries and breads, but they eat in moderation while we usually stuff our faces LOL

i love going to Germany for similar reasons. The work floor has a cart that goes around with fresh pastries to buy. There grocery stores equable to Compare Foods or Aldi always have fresh bakeries independent attached to the front of the building. Their snacks and junk food there are just better.

[78thealltimegreat]

22 hours ago, Brand J said:

Actually the All-22 from many games shows that he’s open far more than you’d imagine, but for whatever reason he and Josh don’t usually connect. They have little to no chemistry. In turn the defense doesn’t prioritize Gabe as a player that could threaten them. Perhaps that’s the real reason why he’s open, it’s not precision level route running.

Maybe it’s cause like 35 percent of Josh’s ints this year where when he targeted Gabe. Seems like as the season went on he just felt more comfortable throwing to Shakir and Kincaid and I can’t blame him. 

[Solomon Grundy]

24 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

If I were to lay a bet now, the top 3 names Higgins, Pittman and Evans will end up staying where they are.

 

I'm almost expecting Higgins to get slapped with the tag. I would expect the Colts to do the same if a deal cannot be worked out. And Evans will test the market, but I bet he stays in the only city he's ever played for.  Even if 1-3 of them actually hit the market I think a team like the Jets will be more than happy to vastly overpay. I do see Gabe landing a deal in the ballpark of what Lazard got with the Jets last off season.

 

There should be a lot of solid 2nd level guys out there, though of which Gabe is a member. What may hurt his odds of a huge payday even more than the FA market is the deep WR draft class incoming. 

 

Looking at the last 5-6 years of draft classes, talented WRs are becoming a dime a dozen. Only a matter of time before FA the market reflects that.

I truly hope the Bills don't waste money on FA WRs this year. This draft has some that can contribute on day 1

[BuffaloBillyG]

24 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I truly hope the Bills don't waste money on FA WRs this year. This draft has some that can contribute on day 1

For me it depends on how the WR room shakes out. Do they keep Harty? Is Sherfield back? How much can we realistically expect out of Shorter. Or Isabella. Or KJ Hamler. We know Gabe is all but gone. So barring any change our only known assets there are Diggs and Shakir. Even adding a rookie to that, that's not enough IMO. 

 

Ideally, I'd like to see us draft one oland sign one. The FA being experienced, but not high priced star. DJ Chark comes to mind. 

[SCBills]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

For me it depends on how the WR room shakes out. Do they keep Harty? Is Sherfield back? How much can we realistically expect out of Shorter. Or Isabella. Or KJ Hamler. We know Gabe is all but gone. So barring any change our only known assets there are Diggs and Shakir. Even adding a rookie to that, that's not enough IMO. 

 

Ideally, I'd like to see us draft one oland sign one. The FA being experienced, but not high priced star. DJ Chark comes to mind. 

 

I don't want to hear a word about KJ Hamler.. if he works out, great.   Enough with this bargain basement WR room building.

 

We have Diggs, Year 3 Shakir and Year 2 Kincaid.  Those three guys should be more than reliable next year.   Get this WR room younger, cheaper and more talented via the Draft.  

 

I'm all for going overboard and getting a WR in RD1 and again on Day 2.  But at the very least, this draft has to be a double dip early and then again in Rounds 3-5. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

32 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I don't want to hear a word about KJ Hamler.. if he works out, great.   Enough with this bargain basement WR room building.

 

We have Diggs, Year 3 Shakir and Year 2 Kincaid.  Those three guys should be more than reliable next year.   Get this WR room younger, cheaper and more talented via the Draft.  

 

I'm all for going overboard and getting a WR in RD1 and again on Day 2.  But at the very least, this draft has to be a double dip early and then again in Rounds 3-5. 

Oh, I'm not trying to say there are ANY expectations about Hamler. Just that he's a body currently in the room. 

 

As far as double dipping, I'm fine if they do. It also wouldn't shock me too much if they take a WR in the 1st or 2nd and stand pat thinking that they get Shorter back and view that as a second young WR they didn't have in the mix this year. NOT saying that's my preferred route or something I agree with...just that kind of thought out of the Bills wouldn't shock me. Especially with other needs that we will have.

[Tim Tindale]

1 hour ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I truly hope the Bills don't waste money on FA WRs this year. This draft has some that can contribute on day 1

Tee Higgins is a 25 year old game wrecker and would be a great fit on the Bills.  Worth it, full stop. If he ends up back on the Bengals on a long term deal, it’d be miserable… only surpassed by landing on the Chiefs in a long term deal. 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

https://buffalonews.com/sports/professional/nfl/bills/mom-defends-gabe-davis-after-viral-video-of-argument-with-fans/article_b00f6622-ba3f-11ee-986d-7fc92471e0e8.html
 

Apparently—at least according to his mom—he was defending Bass from a-hole fans (and yes, there are a lot of a-hole Bills fans): ‘Davis' mother, Alana, posted on X that Gabe was “taking up for Bass.” Davis can be seen comforting Bass, along with quarterback Josh Allen, in the tunnel area after the game.’

 

 

I can confirm this.   But that's the norm with Gabe,  he is always looking for a reason to fight with fans.  He hates the fans.   Seriously.  Basically nobody else on the team does this.   He doesn't get fan/player dynamic or the fact that when you cuss out the 2-3 people out of 1,000 in the vicinity that are going out of their way to heckle you then you are showing yourself to be an unlikable character.   He really turned the crowd behind the bench against him the past couple of seasons.    

 

As for the "a lot of a-hole Bills fans" crack.......ok........but there are a lotta' 50+ year season ticket accounts in that part of the crowd.  And a lot of Bills family members.  Not exactly a drunken end zone group or a tough heckling crowd by any means.   I'm actually surprised someone finally recorded him telling the crowd to "go ***** yourselves" on video.   That's not what people in that area usually do.   Not a big social media presence in there.       

[Nitro]

Good luck.   He was an excellent 4 WR but a hit or miss  WR.   Not worth investing big money in.

[C.Biscuit97]

The Gabe hate has gotten flat out dumb here. An amazing 4th round pick who was capable of monster games. Ultimately, he wasn’t good enough as a number 2.

 

He should be paid like a 3 but will probably get a nice contract. I will miss him but hopefully they upgrade through the draft and not their yearly scrub FA signing that we try to talk ourselves into.

[DCOrange]

23 hours ago, Monty98 said:

All this tells me he's had a number from day one and we laughed him out of the meeting. I'm sure he is using the 13 second game and the fact that Diggs is aging as his main points of why I'm worth X. I just don't see him as a need here. He's easily replaceable via draft and doesn't offer something that Diggs or Shakir don't. Noted I've been big on Shakir since his draft but Davis can go and look for the money he thinks he's worth

I definitely think he can be replaced, but I do think people underrate him here, at least as far as being a vertical threat goes. There were only 29 WRs this year that were targeted deep at least 20 times this year. It’s basically every big name WR in the league plus Gabe, Justin Watson, and Rashid Shaheed. Gabe’s catch % on those passes was tied for 13th I believe (again, almost exclusively compared to the other star WRs in the NFL), his PFF grade on these passes was tied for 6th, tied for 6th in TDs, 14th in yards per route run, 4th in contested catch rate (granted the sample size on these are very small across the board), and 15th in passer rating on those targets. Anyway you slice it he was among the best deep threats in the league this year despite it being a relative down year. And I think Diggs and more recently Sherfield showed those downfield targets are not easy to bring in. Diggs was also in that group of 29 and was close to dead last in all those categories. Having said that, 2 rookies did crack that list this year to varying success rates. Zay Flowers wasn’t as good as Gabe but was still pretty good. Jordan Addison made the list but was near the bottom in terms of success. 
 

I certainly do not foresee us replacing him via free agency unless we find some serious money under the cushions; none of the cheaper FA options really offer upside as vertical threats. 

[DCOrange]

23 hours ago, DasNootz said:

I am interested to see what he gets.   There are 5-10 other FAs WRs that I'd rather have if money was close.  I have no clue what each will make, but there are options.

This FA class has
Tee Higgins
Michael Pittman Jr
Mike Evans
Marquise Brown
Calvin Ridley
Curtis Samuel
Darnell Mooney
OBJ
Tyler boyd


 

Samuel and Boyd are pretty much exclusively slot guys so I don’t think they’d make any sense as a replacement. Mooney is mostly slot and just isn’t as good as Davis anyways IMO.

 

Definitely agree re: the first 5 names, though they’ll probably all be significantly more expensive than Gabe. Pittman also has mostly been a slant merchant in the NFL; very good player and one of my personal favorites but if we’re focused on explosive vertical plays, he’s not the guy.
 

Odell I could go either way on vs. Gabe. 

[DCOrange]

On 1/22/2024 at 12:43 PM, May Day 10 said:

What % of Allen's interceptions were Davis passes this season?  

INTs by intended target:

 

6 - Gabe

4 - Diggs

3 - Kincaid

2 - Harty

2 - Knox

1 - Isabella

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

20 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I definitely think he can be replaced, but I do think people underrate him here, at least as far as being a vertical threat goes. There were only 29 WRs this year that were targeted deep at least 20 times this year. It’s basically every big name WR in the league plus Gabe, Justin Watson, and Rashid Shaheed. Gabe’s catch % on those passes was tied for 13th I believe (again, almost exclusively compared to the other star WRs in the NFL), his PFF grade on these passes was tied for 6th, tied for 6th in TDs, 14th in yards per route run, 4th in contested catch rate (granted the sample size on these are very small across the board), and 15th in passer rating on those targets. Anyway you slice it he was among the best deep threats in the league this year despite it being a relative down year. And I think Diggs and more recently Sherfield showed those downfield targets are not easy to bring in. Diggs was also in that group of 29 and was close to dead last in all those categories. Having said that, 2 rookies did crack that list this year to varying success rates. Zay Flowers wasn’t as good as Gabe but was still pretty good. Jordan Addison made the list but was near the bottom in terms of success. 
 

I certainly do not foresee us replacing him via free agency unless we find some serious money under the cushions; none of the cheaper FA options really offer upside as vertical threats. 

 

 

Yeah make no mistake,  the Gabe hate is entirely on Brandon Beane.

 

Gabe has two specific skills that he is very good at.......he can make big plays deep and he can block.

 

But in their attempt to allocate as many resources as they could to the defense they allowed their WR corp to become depleted "hoping" that Gabe Davis could be a WR2.

 

That was never going to happen.   He just doesn't have a broad enough skill set and that should have been obvious.

 

The NFL is an entertainment business.    The saying in show business goes "always leave them wanting to see more of you".

 

Gabe just got overexposed.

 

Ideally he would have stayed in that role he had in his first 2 seasons.     

 

Edited January 24 by BADOLBILZ

[Monty98]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

I definitely think he can be replaced, but I do think people underrate him here, at least as far as being a vertical threat goes. There were only 29 WRs this year that were targeted deep at least 20 times this year. It’s basically every big name WR in the league plus Gabe, Justin Watson, and Rashid Shaheed. Gabe’s catch % on those passes was tied for 13th I believe (again, almost exclusively compared to the other star WRs in the NFL), his PFF grade on these passes was tied for 6th, tied for 6th in TDs, 14th in yards per route run, 4th in contested catch rate (granted the sample size on these are very small across the board), and 15th in passer rating on those targets. Anyway you slice it he was among the best deep threats in the league this year despite it being a relative down year. And I think Diggs and more recently Sherfield showed those downfield targets are not easy to bring in. Diggs was also in that group of 29 and was close to dead last in all those categories. Having said that, 2 rookies did crack that list this year to varying success rates. Zay Flowers wasn’t as good as Gabe but was still pretty good. Jordan Addison made the list but was near the bottom in terms of success. 
 

I certainly do not foresee us replacing him via free agency unless we find some serious money under the cushions; none of the cheaper FA options really offer upside as vertical threats. 

I'm not saying he isn't good or that he's overrated. My point is, is he a guy you put faith in signing long term to replace Diggs as a #1? I don't, and I don't think he's a true #1 WR either. He's a good #2 but he's not a great #2 fringe #1. Look at guys we've had, Peerless Price? Great #2 terrible #1 in Atlanta. Stevie Johnson, would have been a much better #2 but was a fringe #1 guy. Diggs has been that clear #1 and Davis was a good #2 to him. I think there's much more enticing options in the draft. I really think all 3 of the Washington guys will be #1s if not the fringe #1 great #2. I think someone will see his size and the games like the 13 second game and pay him more than he's worth. 

[Herb]

https://youtu.be/yhQql-ZbZmg?si=KxdUNpNsoyw5zgXu

[Billl]

On 1/24/2024 at 10:55 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah make no mistake,  the Gabe hate is entirely on Brandon Beane.

 

Gabe has two specific skills that he is very good at.......he can make big plays deep and he can block.

 

But in their attempt to allocate as many resources as they could to the defense they allowed their WR corp to become depleted "hoping" that Gabe Davis could be a WR2.

 

That was never going to happen.   He just doesn't have a broad enough skill set and that should have been obvious.

 

The NFL is an entertainment business.    The saying in show business goes "always leave them wanting to see more of you".

 

Gabe just got overexposed.

 

Ideally he would have stayed in that role he had in his first 2 seasons.     

 

There's a lot of truth to this, but I don't think they expected him to become something more than he is.  In fact, he's been much better than his draft position suggested.  He's provided lowish WR2 production.  In this league, that's probably $50+ million of value over his 4 year career.  Meanwhile, he's earned $2 million total. 

 

Guys who out-perform their draft position and/or salary are extremely valuable even if they never develop into true difference makers.  $48 million of surplus value is enormous in a league that is so salary cap driven.

[Mikie2times]

On 1/24/2024 at 8:35 AM, DCOrange said:

I definitely think he can be replaced, but I do think people underrate him here, at least as far as being a vertical threat goes. There were only 29 WRs this year that were targeted deep at least 20 times this year. It’s basically every big name WR in the league plus Gabe, Justin Watson, and Rashid Shaheed. Gabe’s catch % on those passes was tied for 13th I believe (again, almost exclusively compared to the other star WRs in the NFL), his PFF grade on these passes was tied for 6th, tied for 6th in TDs, 14th in yards per route run, 4th in contested catch rate (granted the sample size on these are very small across the board), and 15th in passer rating on those targets. Anyway you slice it he was among the best deep threats in the league this year despite it being a relative down year. And I think Diggs and more recently Sherfield showed those downfield targets are not easy to bring in. Diggs was also in that group of 29 and was close to dead last in all those categories. Having said that, 2 rookies did crack that list this year to varying success rates. Zay Flowers wasn’t as good as Gabe but was still pretty good. Jordan Addison made the list but was near the bottom in terms of success. 
 

I certainly do not foresee us replacing him via free agency unless we find some serious money under the cushions; none of the cheaper FA options really offer upside as vertical threats. 

I agree he is a very solid deep threat. But always having him occupy one of the 11 spots and rarely being utilized kills the offense. It’s like playing with 10 guys.

Edited January 26 by Mikie2times

[Scott7975]

On 1/22/2024 at 8:42 PM, JimBob2232 said:

We need to let him go - but unlike Edmonds I think we’ll regret this one.  He is a good one who will probably shine somewhere.  
 

remember we ran Robert woods and zay jones outta here too.  Gabe us far better than them. 

 

Woods wanted out.  Nobody ran him out.  Jones still took years just to be a decent guy.  Gabe is not better than Woods.

[John from Riverside]

52 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Woods wanted out.  Nobody ran him out.  Jones still took years just to be a decent guy.  Gabe is not better than Woods.

I haven’t gone through the whole thread, but I think that the fact that Josh Allen tends to throw interceptions whenever he tries to target gave Davis needs to be considered

[DCOrange]

14 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I haven’t gone through the whole thread, but I think that the fact that Josh Allen tends to throw interceptions whenever he tries to target gave Davis needs to be considered

I think this is mostly as simple as Davis is generally targeted on deep passes and deep passes are more likely to be intercepted than shorter ones. Having said that we’ve obviously seen a few shorter option routes get intercepted too. 

[DCofNC]

On 1/22/2024 at 12:44 PM, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Some team gives him $15 million.

I’d bet he gets 12-15, basically MVS type of deal.  He’s not bad, he’s just not great. 

[BigAl2526]

I expect that he's gone.  Buffalo has a couple big receivers that might develop in Shorter and UDFA Tyrel Shaver.  They need to draft an outside receiver with some speed though.  Any free agents they sign are going to be of the "value" variety given their cap woes.  

[Warriorspikes51]

I'd bet $ he goes to KC and tears it up