Season on the Brink

[Casey D]

5-4 with eight games to play.  Not where we thought this team would be.  Not where anybody thought they would be. So where do the Bills go from here.

 

First, the overwhelming emotions that the Bills are done because they lost to Cincinnati on the road are overblown.  Given how all teams are playing so far in 2023, this looked like the toughest game left on the schedule, and most figured they would lose.  So it's not this game, but the overall play the last five weeks.  And the one game the Bills surely would like to have back is the Pats loss-- that was a killer.  Other than that, losing to Jax in London given how the NFL set up that game was also surely a loss too.  So here they are, 5-4, the current 8 seed and out of the playoffs, looking up at teams like Pittsburgh and Cleveland.  So what is next.

 

The Bills have an opportunity now to reset and reemerge in the playoff discussion.  Or this could end up being a lost season, and a reboot will be required to get this team to the upper echelons in 2024 and 2025.  Allen is not going anywhere at 27, and the great Bills teams of the early 1990s began after Kelly turned 30. And with the QB, you will always be good, if not great. So no window is closing IMO overall.

 

So the Bills have two beatable opponents coming up, and a good chance to experiment on offense and to try and find themselves.  They get to do it without crowd noise-- which I think impacted the up-tempo offense in Cincinnati (Allen could not stand at the line and bark out signals as he did against Tampa).  But the Bills can try and get this down at home in the next two weeks, and then try to take it on the road where communication is more difficult.

 

Anyway, since this is all just entertainment and not life and death, I am going to just enjoy the ride for now and see what happens.  We have a lot of strong players on this team, and now we get to see what they are made of in a crisis.  Because it is a crisis.  The next two weeks are must win games, and they need to get their offensive act together and playing Denver first, who Miami beat with 70 points, is a good place to start.  Then a huge step up in class against a really good Jets defense.  We will learn if they are learning.

 

Either they will regroup and find their game, or they won't.  I'm all in for now, but the next two weeks will be the crucible for the gauntlet that is the last six weeks of the season.  It will either be a blast, of I can look to do other things than hanging on what the Bills do during the holidays.  Truly a season on the brink IMO.  

Edited November 7, 2023 by Casey D

[zow2]

As Tony Dungy used to always say,  You need to play your best football in Nov/Dec.   So they better get their act together against Denver and go from there.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Casey D said:

5-4 with eight games to play.  Not where we thought this team would be.  Not where anybody thought they would ne. So where do the Bills go from here.

 

First, the overwhelming emotions that the Bills are done because they lost to Cincinnati on the road are overblown.  Given how all teams are playing so far in 2023, this looked like the toughest game left on the schedule, and most figured they would lose.  So it's not this game, but the overall play the last five weeks.  And the one game the Bills surely would like to have back is the Pats loss-- that was a killer.  Other than that, losing to Jax in London given how the NFL set up that game was also surely a loss too.  So here they are, 5-4, the current 8 seed and out of the playoffs, looking up at teams like Pittsburgh and Cleveland.  So what is next.

 

So at the 8-1 Eagles and 7-2 Chiefs aren't tougher games with the way our team is playing? Sorry, I must push back on that. There is a reason why I say that we're already over the cliff and not on the brink anymore... the next three out of four games are brutal- Jets, at Eagles and at Chiefs. I just cannot share your optimism at all with this season... as different as the Eagles and Chiefs have looked this season, we are not capable of overcoming the one advantage they have- THEY WIN the big games they are supposed to and we do NOT.

Edited November 7, 2023 by EasternOHBillsFan

[Casey D]

3 minutes ago, zow2 said:

As Tony Dungy used to always say,  You need to play your best football in Nov/Dec.   So they better get their act together against Denver and go from there.

Totally agree.  Things can change a lot between now and January.  Seems to me if they can turn this around a bit then the final 5 game stretch will be pre-playoffs playoffs.  But it remains to be seen if they can change or if this is a lost season.

[ddaryl]

I'm now more concerned with how we right this ship in the next 2 years and take advantage of JA's career back 9.

Coaching changes and Beane has to be willing to make some tough decisions regarding players and then he has to draft better.

I just don't see this team, righting this ship, this year. My optomism is not blind. There is an underlying fundamental problem and you have to look at common denominators

[Casey D]

3 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

So at the 8-1 Eagles and 7-2 Chiefs aren't tougher games with the way our team is playing? Sorry, I must push back on that. There is a reason why I say that we're already over the cliff and not on the brink anymore... the next three out of four games are brutal- Jets, at Eagles and at Chiefs. I just cannot share your optimism at all with this season... as different as the Eagles and Chiefs have looked this season, we are not capable of overcoming the one advantage they have- THEY WIN the big games they are supposed to and we do NOT.

I am not optimistic per se, just stating facts.  Even if they improve, KC and Eagles are likely losses on the road. 

 

I am just choosing for now not to be as unhappy as you are about the team.  If you feel that pessimistic, then just tune the team out for a while, see the results, and if your prognosis is correct you can stay tuned out.  No need to let something like football make you feel bad needlessly.  Because if I do not see wins and improvements the next two weeks, I will make myself turn to other pursuits.  Should not let entertainment make you feel bad. 

1 minute ago, ddaryl said:

I'm now more concerned with how we right this ship in the next 2 years and take advantage of JA's career back 9.

Coaching changes and Beane has to be willing to make some tough decisions regarding players and then he has to draft better.

I just don't see this team, righting this ship, this year. My optomism is not blind. There is an underlying fundamental problem and you have to look at common denominators

I agree to an extent.  Something is not right with this team right now.  I do not know if it is fixable or something more deep rooted.  No one outside the team itself does. I am willing to see.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

Just now, Casey D said:

I am not optimistic per se, just stating facts.  Even if they improve, KC and Eagles are likely losses on the road. 

 

I am just choosing for now not to be as unhappy as you are about the team.  If you feel that pessimistic, then just tune the team out for a while, see the results, and if your prognosis is correct you can stay tuned out.  No need to let something like football make you feel bad needlessly.  Because if I do not see wins and improvements the next two weeks, I will make myself turn to other pursuits.  Should not let entertainment make you feel bad. 

 

ACTUALLY, I am feeling a lot better because the losing of the Phins and Jets are providing me with a lot of laughs... believe me, I'm good. My wife was really surprised as to how calm on Monday morning... I expected the loss because this team isn't being coached well enough to win. Thanks though... I get your sentiment.

[VaMilBill]

I don’t know how you could have any optimism. For 5 straight weeks our offense has been bad. We have the firepower, but get little production out of it. 
 

On top of that, we are going into a much tougher portion of our schedule. I can’t imagine us beating KC or the Eagles….Dallas for that matter too. And I think playing Miami in Miami with a completely different, and weaker, defense than the first game, I see that as a loss too. 
 

This team isn’t in a rut. It is just a mediocre team. 

[gordong]

stick a fork in them...they are getting a nice top 10 draft pick. hopefully a WR like they SHOULD have gotten this off season. 

 

they will most likely go 2-6 the remaining way...    the defense is a hot mess...  and the offense is worse. 

Edited November 7, 2023 by gordong

[Casey D]

Just now, gordong said:

stick a fork in them...they are getting a nice top 10 draft pick. hopefully a WR like they SHOULD have gotten this off season. 

If you think that, you should make a large wager.  No way they have a top 10 pick.  Zero.

 

3 minutes ago, VaMilBill said:

I don’t know how you could have any optimism. For 5 straight weeks our offense has been bad. We have the firepower, but get little production out of it. 
 

On top of that, we are going into a much tougher portion of our schedule. I can’t imagine us beating KC or the Eagles….Dallas for that matter too. And I think playing Miami in Miami with a completely different, and weaker, defense than the first game, I see that as a loss too. 
 

This team isn’t in a rut. It is just a mediocre team. 

Then you should forget about the team for now and do something more enjoyable than investing emotional effort on an underperforming mediocre team.  Life is too short.  

[Einstein]

If we can win the next two (Broncos/Jets) I think we will be okay.

 

That would put us at 7-4, needing to go 4-2 or 3-3 the rest of the way.

 

Perhaps 4-2 is a more realistic need, since we lose a lot of tiebreakers at this point. 

[May Day 10]

I have said it in a different thread.  

 

They arent well, and now are entering the tough parts of their schedule.

 

9-8 is probably the most likely outcome based on opponents and the Bills' body of work this season.  10-7 would be decent, but likely misses the playoffs due to their results vs other AFC teams already.  11-6?  That would require a 6-2 record against Denver, Jets, @ Eagles, @ Chiefs, Cowboys, Patriots, Chargers, @ Dolphins.  Are there 6 wins there?  

 

I will say, if this team turns it around and does goes 6-2 with that schedule, look out in the playoffs because they will have figured it out and will be playing well.  I just cant imagine them winning 6 of those looking back at the past month and a half.  It is broken

 

Ill also add that the Broncos are no joke now and are coming off a bye, and the Jets defense has the Bills dialed up.  If those games go poorly, I can see the thing really coming off the rails and drama will rear its head

Edited November 7, 2023 by May Day 10

[The Jokeman]

Just now, May Day 10 said:

I have said it in a different thread.  

 

They arent well, and now are entering the tough parts of their schedule.

 

9-8 is probably the most likely outcome based on opponents and the Bills' body of work this season.  10-7 would be decent, but likely misses the playoffs due to their results vs other AFC teams already.  11-6?  That would require a 6-2 record against Denver, Jets, @ Eagles, @ Chiefs, Cowboys, Patriots, Chargers, @ Dolphins.  Are there 6 wins there?  

 

I will say, if this team turns it around and does goes 6-2 with that schedule, look out in the playoffs because they will have figured it out and will be playing well.  I just cant imagine them winning 6 of those looking back at the past month and a half.  It is broken

If we can beat Miami, New England and the Jets and find a way to 10 or more wins in total we should have the AFC East. If/when the playoffs get here, who knows what will happen. 

[Charles Romes]

The gauntlet schedule is a blessing. They have no choice but to be focused or get embarrassed.  If they manage to sneak in they will be a battle tested very-tough out. 

[Casey D]

4 minutes ago, May Day 10 said:

I have said it in a different thread.  

 

They arent well, and now are entering the tough parts of their schedule.

 

9-8 is probably the most likely outcome based on opponents and the Bills' body of work this season.  10-7 would be decent, but likely misses the playoffs due to their results vs other AFC teams already.  11-6?  That would require a 6-2 record against Denver, Jets, @ Eagles, @ Chiefs, Cowboys, Patriots, Chargers, @ Dolphins.  Are there 6 wins there?  

 

I will say, if this team turns it around and does goes 6-2 with that schedule, look out in the playoffs because they will have figured it out and will be playing well.  I just cant imagine them winning 6 of those looking back at the past month and a half.  It is broken

 

Ill also add that the Broncos are no joke now and are coming off a bye, and the Jets defense has the Bills dialed up.  If those games go poorly, I can see the thing really coming off the rails and drama will rear its head

10-7 will make the playoffs-- any combination.  95% chance on NYT predictor.  Like last year some 9 win teams will get wild card slots, like Miami and NYG last year.  

[May Day 10]

3 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

If we can beat Miami, New England and the Jets and find a way to 10 or more wins in total we should have the AFC East. If/when the playoffs get here, who knows what will happen. 

 

Assuming the Bills win those games and get to those 10 wins (taking 2 of Cowboys, Chargers, Chiefs, Eagles, Broncos)

 

We need Miami to lose 3 against (Raiders, Jets, Commanders, Titans, Jets, Cowboys, Ravens)

 

Maybe?  I can see the Jets bonking them once.  Maybe the Ravens and Cowboys?  

 

[SCBills]

25 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

So at the 8-1 Eagles and 7-2 Chiefs aren't tougher games with the way our team is playing? Sorry, I must push back on that. There is a reason why I say that we're already over the cliff and not on the brink anymore... the next three out of four games are brutal- Jets, at Eagles and at Chiefs. I just cannot share your optimism at all with this season... as different as the Eagles and Chiefs have looked this season, we are not capable of overcoming the one advantage they have- THEY WIN the big games they are supposed to and we do NOT.

 

I've been pretty critical of this team for much of the year, but the OP is correct..  At Cinci was always the toughest game on our schedule.

 

We obviously have to win the next two and figure some things out over these coming weeks, but I feel way more confident in us beating Philly in Philly and/or KC in KC.

 

When you play teams also matters..  Right now we're wounded and the replacements aren't up to speed.  We caught Cinci at the exact moment they started putting it together.   Philly and KC don't look all that great for their records, and maybe they pull it together and look unstoppable just in time for us to play them as well.. but you never know until the game occurs, and on paper, we match up far better against them than CIN.

 

CIN has a QB who will always take what's given, a power running game and elite WR's all over the place.  He has a great mind on Offense and one of the best big game DC's in the league... and one who runs concepts, with personnel, that clearly affect what we want to do.   They are, as it stands, our toughest matchup. 

[May Day 10]

1 minute ago, Casey D said:

10-7 will make the playoffs-- any combination.  95% chance on NYT predictor.  Like last year some 9 win teams will get wild card slots, like Miami and NYG last year.  

 

Is that really for the Bills?  I wanted to check but its behind a paywall.  The AFC record made me wonder how that would look 

 

I guess that Chargers game could be really big for a tiebreaker.  Especially with a loss against the Bengals already, who may also be a wildcard team.  

[Fr. Jerk]

Win out, ya dig?

[Casey D]

1 minute ago, May Day 10 said:

 

Is that really for the Bills?  I wanted to check but its behind a paywall.  The AFC record made me wonder how that would look 

 

I guess that Chargers game could be really big for a tiebreaker.  Especially with a loss against the Bengals already, who may also be a wildcard team.  

It likely won't come down to tiebreakers.  There almost certainly will not be 4 teams in AFC non-division winners.  Bills won't make it with 9 wins due to tiebreakers however.

[dorquemada]

If the Bills are going to win any more games this year, they are going to have to get much tougher.  They're getting manhandled every game now, they are soft mentally and physically.  The coach is a dunce who thinks he is a genius, but can't answer simple questions in a press conference. It's the Rex Ryan show without any of the amusing aspects.  If we're going to be clowns lets at least have the whole circus

[Casey D]

5 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

If the Bills are going to win any more games this year, they are going to have to get much tougher.  They're getting manhandled every game now, they are soft mentally and physically.  The coach is a dunce who thinks he is a genius, but can't answer simple questions in a press conference. It's the Rex Ryan show without any of the amusing aspects.  If we're going to be clowns lets at least have the whole circus

No need to be so bitter. They are not soft IMO-- right now they are not playing their best.  Maybe they can fix it, maybe not,  I don't know as I cannot tell the future.

 

 

 The situation is not your fault and you have zero chance of making it better. .  Walk away for a while and take a deep breath and then see what happens.

[SCBills]

13 minutes ago, Casey D said:

It likely won't come down to tiebreakers.  There almost certainly will not be 4 teams in AFC non-division winners.  Bills won't make it with 9 wins due to tiebreakers however.

 

Yea, I'm hesitant to say 10 is the magic number for us, but according to those who ran the predictors, it's pretty close to a lock if we get there. 

 

We also forget that other teams we're looking up at/battling with currently also have tough games on their schedule.

 

This week alone:

 

Texans/Bengals

Browns/Ravens

Lions/Chargers

Jets/Raiders

 

Would guess we're all pulling for Bengals, Ravens, Lions and Raiders. 

 

 

Edited November 7, 2023 by SCBills

[Success]

Title runs come in all shapes & sizes. Sometimes, a team just rolls through the season, and it's almost like a coronation at the end.  

 

Other times, it's a struggle. Quite a few teams have looked lost and like they would surely miss the playoffs by this point, and then just got hot.  The 2007 Giants come to mind (that was an incredibly tumultuous season for them, and fans were even calling for Eli to be benched at a point), but there have been others before than and since.

 

As the OP said, I'm just going to enjoy it either way.  I think we're still making the playoffs - but I have no idea how it's going to look. We may limp through the rest of the season and eek our way in for a 1st round exit, or go on a tear & come in as the hottest team, and make a real run.

 

Gotta love sports.

 

[dorquemada]

5 minutes ago, Casey D said:

No need to be so bitter. They are not soft IMO-- right now they are not playing their best.  Maybe they can fix it, maybe not,  I don't know as I cannot tell the future.

 

 

 The situation is not your fault and you have zero chance of making it better. .  Walk away for a while and take a deep breath and then see what happens.

 

Thanks Dr Phil i feel a lot better now. I think i'll clean my room and do a pushup

[dpberr]

The bad news is that what we all see is what we're all going to get.   Just like in the days of Dick Jauron and Chan Gailey, we can all yell at the clouds for changes, but these dudes will march out there every single Sunday doing the same exact thing all the way to the end.  

 

I've hoped this coaching staff and team would find that extra gear but I simply don't think they've got it.  

 

NFL coaches are stubborn people.  As you see across the NFL here, and in NE for example, coaches would rather sink the ship tethered to their beliefs that *their* system works, regardless of the results you see.  

[dorquemada]

 

The real issue I have with this season is that management (looks like McD with an able assist by Beane) have wrecked what could have been a very fun team to watch.  For a team with a pretension to a championship, they appear to have come into the season with no plan beyond MAKE SURE JOSH DOESNT RUN THE BALL

[LABILLBACKER]

This isn't the time of year to be experimenting on which style of offense to use. I just think Dorsey & McDermott have no clue what offense best suits Josh's skillset.  

[Punch]

Having already lost Tre the week prior, it definitely felt to me like the season was completely derailed when we lost Milano and Daquan in London. I'm ever the optimist, though, so I'm game for a backs against the wall, season on the brink string of improbable victories. 

 

Miami is 6-3, despite the difficult schedule, I think the East is in play. That has to be the goal due to the tiebreakers.

[Mikie2times]

[SCBills]

10 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

This isn't the time of year to be experimenting on which style of offense to use. I just think Dorsey & McDermott have no clue what offense best suits Josh's skillset.  

 

Is it crazy to think this offense with our much improved OL, Diggs - Hopkins - Shakir and a rotation/mixed use of Kincaid (mainly) & Knox (backup) would be high powered?

 

Maybe it's far more complex than I'm making it out to be, but it sure feels like Gabe Davis as our WR2 is a massive issue in terms of our success and consistency. 

 

And if someone wants to push back on Hopkins.. ok, fine, any WR2 that run a full route tree for Allen.  

 

It's wildly obvious now that Davis as WR2 and his limited skillset and/or function here is a huge contributor to the high variance of this offense. 

[stuvian]

We have been coasting ever since the Dolphins game. It doesn't look like we have a culture of urgency like the best teams. This is very sad because it feels like the Chiefs are beatable this year. Repeating as champs is very hard and rare in the NFL.

 

Watching the Bills, it looks like the entire team is waiting for Josh and Diggs to pull wins out of the fire week after week. As of today, we look like a mediocre wild card team that would be embarrassed if it had to go into Baltimore, Cincy, Jacksonville or KC. Our defense and running games are average at best.

 

But a season is a long time. We can go through a streak and demolish opponents in November and December to build momentum for the post season. I just don't know which team will show up. Is it the one that made adjustments at half time to school Miami or the one that played down to level of the lowly Patriots?

 

If we don't find a way to play with consistency there will be changes. There is enough talent to be a contender but, at times like this, I doubt that we are building a winning organization. There are days when I think Clappy is the real deal and others when it feels like he's lost the locker room. All I know is that a one and out post season appearance will feel like a failure that I can't see the Pegulas taking lightly. 

 

McDermott and Beane are playing for their legacies right now. I hope the team rises to the occasion. Vince Lombardi used to tell players to look around the room because some of the faces you see will not be here next year. Then he added, "I will not lose with the same faces twice."

 

This season is a tipping point for the current Bills regime. 

[Casey D]

39 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

 

Thanks Dr Phil i feel a lot better now. I think i'll clean my room and do a pushup

Probably couldn't hurt. 😁

[Bills4lf]

With our remaining schedule, if we make the playoffs, we'll be battle tested.

[Casey D]

4 minutes ago, Bills4lf said:

With our remaining schedule, if we make the playoffs, we'll be battle tested.

Agree.  Have to win Denver NYJ and Pats at home.  That's 8.  Then 2 wins against Phil, KC LAC Dallas Miami.  If they can go 2-3 in those 5, they will be playoff ready.  But right now it is baby steps.  Need to start looking like a real playoff team.  Starts with not losing the turnover battle.  -2 at Bengals just won't win many games.

[dorquemada]

1 minute ago, Casey D said:

Agree.  Have to win Denver NYJ and Pats at home.  That's 8.  Then 2 wins against Phil, KC LAC Dallas Miami.  If they can go 2-3 in those 5, they will be playoff ready.  But right now it is baby steps.  Need to start looking like a real playoff team.  Starts with not losing the turnover battle.  -2 at Bengals just won't win many games.

 

Yeah lets see if we can beat Denver and the Jets before we start anointing ourselves playoff contenders quite yet.  It doesn't seem like there is any urgency in the coaching ranks to change anything so not sure why results would be any different

[billieve420]

1 hour ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

So at the 8-1 Eagles and 7-2 Chiefs aren't tougher games with the way our team is playing? Sorry, I must push back on that. There is a reason why I say that we're already over the cliff and not on the brink anymore... the next three out of four games are brutal- Jets, at Eagles and at Chiefs. I just cannot share your optimism at all with this season... as different as the Eagles and Chiefs have looked this season, we are not capable of overcoming the one advantage they have- THEY WIN the big games they are supposed to and we do NOT.

 

I will throw in the Cowboys as well. Teams with physical defenses we never seem to match up well against.

[Casey D]

2 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

 

Yeah lets see if we can beat Denver and the Jets before we start anointing ourselves playoff contenders quite yet.  It doesn't seem like there is any urgency in the coaching ranks to change anything so not sure why results would be any different

Perhaps not turning the ball over would be a good place to start.  Teams that are -2 in turnovers lose 84% of NFL games.  To be in that 16% on the road against maybe the hottest team in the NFL is nigh on impossible.  Clean that up and results will come IMO.

[May Day 10]

28 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Is it crazy to think this offense with our much improved OL, Diggs - Hopkins - Shakir and a rotation/mixed use of Kincaid (mainly) & Knox (backup) would be high powered?

 

Maybe it's far more complex than I'm making it out to be, but it sure feels like Gabe Davis as our WR2 is a massive issue in terms of our success and consistency. 

 

And if someone wants to push back on Hopkins.. ok, fine, any WR2 that run a full route tree for Allen.  

 

It's wildly obvious now that Davis as WR2 and his limited skillset and/or function here is a huge contributor to the high variance of this offense. 

 

I always think that the Bills should have splurged and traded for AJ Brown as opposed to the Von Miller splash signing.   We had #23 and not #18 (which was Elam, no big loss)... but would have needed to sweeten it a bit more to make up for the lower pick

Edited November 7, 2023 by May Day 10

[Casey D]

3 minutes ago, May Day 10 said:

 

I always think that the Bills should have splurged and traded for AJ Brown as opposed to the Von Miller splash signing.

Post hoc, maybe.  Ex ante, Von was a free agent and Brown likely would have cost a Bills 1st and 2nd, as Titans got 18th overall and 3rd from Eagles.

Edited November 7, 2023 by Casey D