Week 4, Bills favored by 3 over Dolphins

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

time to move on from poyer. 

Next season, yes 

[NBDawg15]

5 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

I heard on WGR this morning about 75% or 80% of the money was going on the Dolphins... 

People are hyped about the 70 points. I hope there's a lot of unhappy bettors Sunday evening.

But the line hasn't moved.  I heard that the public money is on Miami but the sharps are taking the Bills.

[NewEra]

14 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

That Indiana Jones bit was awesome.

Yeah. Tom peters ftw.  He’s really talented

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

9 minutes ago, NBDawg15 said:

But the line hasn't moved.  I heard that the public money is on Miami but the sharps are taking the Bills.

the sharps are smart.

[Bangarang]

1 hour ago, RichRiderBills said:

Fins have a gimmicky team. The gimmick won't work all the time and their team will never win a Superbowl like this. 

 

I do believe the "smoke and mirrors" that has elevated the play of a very weak OL will be exposed by better Defenses like the Bills. 

 

Bills are a well rounded, solid football team playing at home in a difficult environment. Bills have owned the Dolphins the last several years, even the last loss was a flukey 22 game , where the offense had nearly 500 yards, but made several bone-headed miscues in Q4 that cost them the game. 

 

I like Buffalo here. I feel the Bills D-line will be a huge reason for the win. They'll get some pressure and limit the run. I think they will still gash us now and then , but the Bills will keep it contained and stave off bleeding. Longer more methodical drives by the offense will add to keep Miami O off the field. I expect the crowd and pass coverage to knock off Tua just enough to open up some mistakes by Miami. 

 

The Bills have almost always moved the ball against the Phins D with ease, and I expect that to continue. The Online has been tested against some stout DLs and pass rushers, and looked tough and highly improved. It's not gimmicks that are making that unit look like the class of the AFCE. 

 

The Bills routinely put up major points on this group, but the problems on O are bone headed errors- turnovers, penalties, and goofs. I expect the Bills to play a cleaner game, and run the ball better. 

 

Final 31-21 Bills

What’s their gimmick exactly? 

[zow2]

8 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

the sharps are smart.

 

They also like the Jets this week for whatever reason.  The line started KC -9.5 i think and it’s down to -8.5

[ColoradoBills]

I posted this in the Kincaid thread, but it probably belongs here.

 

If you look at the season schedule as a whole, this is the first game that you'd bring out different looks as an OC.

I am really looking forward to seeing some innovated uses of some of the new weapons on the Bills.

If we don't see that I will be a bit disappointed in Dorsey and Josh.

 

This is the game to begin to show what Kincaid, Harty, Shakir and Sherfield can do.  Knox has more TDs against the Dolphins than any other team.

Show me what you got Ken!

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

10 minutes ago, zow2 said:

 

They also like the Jets this week for whatever reason.  The line started KC -9.5 i think and it’s down to -8.5

I'd say any given sunday but were speaking about wilson and the jets

[wjag]

39 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

I didn't take it like that. 

 

But also think Jordan at 80% (just hypothetical) isn't as good as Rapp at 100%-- at least this week, with the speed and dynamic passing attack of Miamis.

 

Depends what type of defensive plan Coach has up his sleeve.  If it's a mostly soft/2 deep shell, safety play is even more mitigated/less impactful.  

 

Not to downplay Po absence, but this game was likely coming down to our front 4 and ability to limit YAC on defense.  And our offense being able to sustain/finish drives.

 

Agreed.  I'm not suggesting a permament benching but rather a recognition that two healthy knees on every DB is required for this one.  So take the week and heal up fully.

[Stank_Nasty]

40 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

I heard on WGR this morning about 75% or 80% of the money was going on the Dolphins... 

People are hyped about the 70 points. I hope there's a lot of unhappy bettors Sunday evening.

 

33 minutes ago, NBDawg15 said:

But the line hasn't moved.  I heard that the public money is on Miami but the sharps are taking the Bills.

Correct. From what I’m seeing nearly 80% of the sharps are betting bills…. It’s obviously no sure thing. But thats generally the trail you wanna follow. 

[Big Turk]

28 minutes ago, zow2 said:

 

They also like the Jets this week for whatever reason.  The line started KC -9.5 i think and it’s down to -8.5

 

Their defense to limit a mostly meh group of receivers in KC outside of Kelce?

[NewEra]

Any word if on if Jaelen Phillips practiced today?

[BritBill]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

Any word if on if Jaelen Phillips practiced today?

He’s out Sunday. 

[Simon]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Any word if on if Jaelen Phillips practiced today?

He's been declared out

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Nephilim17 said:

I heard on WGR this morning about 75% or 80% of the money was going on the Dolphins... 

People are hyped about the 70 points. I hope there's a lot of unhappy bettors Sunday evening.

Sort of

 

What I'm seeing is over 80% handle is on MIA+125 which is not surprising given they're a trendy dog, public can go nuts on that ML

 

but spread doesn't support a strong feeling either way imo Bills taking around 35% handle and same %of bets...what people do love is the over which means the house play this week is Bills-3 and the under 

[ngbills]

Why was Tre out today? 

 

Saw it was a rest day. Didnt he just have a rest day? I guess they expect him to do a lot of running on sunday...

Edited September 29, 2023 by ngbills

[mannc]

5 minutes ago, BritBill said:

He’s out Sunday. 

That’s big

[DuckyBoys]

wonder if Conor Williams will play

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, zow2 said:

 

They also like the Jets this week for whatever reason.  The line started KC -9.5 i think and it’s down to -8.5

Maybe they think the Jets defense bounces back and the point margin is to big?

[zow2]

Miami looks really good. But i’m not sure how good Buffalo is yet?.  The D looks like it could be the best we’ve seen in this era of winning.  And if Allen continues to play relatively clean games, and converts 3rd downs at this clip,  the Bills should cover.