Week 4, Bills favored by 3 over Dolphins

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, Aimee75 said:

Because they pop up on Youtube and against better judgement, I click.

 

It's a premise of animal training that if you want to change a behavior, you need to replace it with a positive behavior.

All of us ***** sapiens are fundamentally animals, and if it works to train a cougar or an elephant, it works for us.

[Edit: Oh my goodness, H o m o sapiens is disallowed!  No "Man the wise" here! LOL]

 

So, next time they pop up, try this instead:

-search for One Bills Live Greg Cosell

 

Search for One Bills Live Baldy's Breakdowns

 

Search for team names and Dan Orlovsky

 

 

Now I know that One Bills Live is the Bills in-house Media, but Greg Cosell, Brian Baldinger, and Dan Orlovsky are three of the most respected, football knowledgeable media members around and they don't sugar-coat it.  Watching these will give you a much better, wiser, more reason-based perspective

 

Next, try Cover1.  Now there's a lot of variable coverage being put out by Cover1 these days, as they've expanded from former players/coaches to current fans/journalism majors in their podcasters.  Try something like Cover 1 team names.  I like Anthony Prohaska who films "Disguised Coverage" so I'll search for him:

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=cover+1+bills+dolphins+anthony
 

 

OK, when you're done with all that, you'll know a lot more about Bills football and various keys to the game, good and bad.

 

And I think you'll find if you attempt to watch some of these Blatherskites, they'll stick in your craw and you'll click elsewhere.

Edited September 30, 2023 by Beck Water

[Aimee75]

48 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

It's a premise of animal training that if you want to change a behavior, you need to replace it with a positive behavior.

All of us ***** sapiens are fundamentally animals, and if it works to train a cougar or an elephant, it works for us.

 

So, next time they pop up, try this instead:

-search for One Bills Live Greg Cosell

 

Search for One Bills Live Baldy's Breakdowns

 

Search for team names and Dan Orlovsky

 

 

Now I know that One Bills Live is the Bills in-house Media, but Greg Cosell, Brian Baldinger, and Dan Orlovsky are three of the most respected, football knowledgeable media members around and they don't sugar-coat it.  Watching these will give you a much better, wiser, more reason-based perspective

 

Next, try Cover1.  Now there's a lot of variable coverage being put out by Cover1 these days, as they've expanded from former players/coaches to current fans/journalism majors in their podcasters.  Try something like Cover 1 team names.  I like Anthony Prohaska who films "Disguised Coverage" so I'll search for him:

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=cover+1+bills+dolphins+anthony
 

 

OK, when you're done with all that, you'll know a lot more about Bills football and various keys to the game, good and bad.

 

And I think you'll find if you attempt to watch some of these Blatherskites, they'll stick in your craw and you'll click elsewhere.

Dan Orlovsky is usually very reasonable. I do appreciate these links, I just wonder if they sometimes say what we want to hear when they speak with OBL? 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

3 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Maybe we can give Kincaid a little time.  Beasley had 15 receptions for 128 yards in his rookie season.

I don’t think it has anything to do with Kincaid. They just aren’t targeting him. That said, I actually think that will change this weekend. 

[DuckyBoys]

Pats have no viable offense and kept it close  If Bills can have a balanced offensive game as they have the past two weeks I feel very confident Chargers cant stop anyone and every game is a shootout and the Broncos basically quit.  I dont think you can ready much from those two games  I think we win and the talking heads will find some new hot take.  Honestly I think the Bills are in a better spot being disregarded vs being the favorites like they were last year.  

[Goin Breakdown]

I can't wait to not have to talk about the dolphins. I suspect it will be this way all season perhaps for the next few years idk. Just can't stand the hype. Tua is the hands downMVP? Seriously? Why? because he has the fastest team built around him and a super innovative coach. Then there coach of the year and Offensive player of the year and on and on. Was it this bad when the Bills were making noise?

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Aimee75 said:

Dan Orlovsky is usually very reasonable. I do appreciate these links, I just wonder if they sometimes say what we want to hear when they speak with OBL? 

 

I'm sure they soft pedal things a bit as far as the verbiage they use, but if you account for that and listen carefully, they're surprisingly blunt.

Greg Cosell is like the Godfather of Film Analysis, especially film analysis of NFL QB - always worth listening to.

 

They're not going to say "yer boy shat the bed last week" they will say "if you turn the ball over 4 times, it's very rare to be able to come away with a win" etc etc.

Edited September 30, 2023 by Beck Water

[Bills!Win!]

I have to say I’m not worried about this game. Even if the bills lose I won’t be upset. I can see both teams scoring at least 34 points. 

[sven233]

One thing I notice when watching the film on the Dolphins offense is not so much what they are doing on offense, but how defenses have played them so far.  They are playing scared.  They get so caught up watching what motions and eye candy they are using, it is just freezing the fronts and LBs and in turn, they are getting blown off the ball by the time they figure out what is going on.  They are reacting instead of dictating and that is giving Tua all day to throw if he needs it, but also allowing him to just lock onto his first read without having to move on.  It is also giving their backs giant holes to run through because the defensing fronts are backing off because they are trying too hard to figure out how to stop the Dolphins offense instead of attacking themselves to just try and shut it down.

 

However, at least to this point in the season, it's been exactly the opposite with the Bills defense.  We have been using both simulated and creeper pressures super well, along with changing up coverages at the snap in order to confuse the opposing offenses.  When doing this, we're still only sending 4 most of the time while dropping 7 in coverage.  But the difference is, we are getting to our spots at the snap, not waiting for the offensive players to get to theirs first and then reacting. 

 

Tua hasn't been touched in the first 3 weeks because the defensive lines and LBs are too busy waiting around trying to figure things out.  That's why when you watch the tape on their offense, everyone is laying on the ground or running backwards trying to play catch-up.  I am pretty sure you won't see us doing that Sunday.  I fully expect that McDermott will see that that key to slowing their offense down is to disrupt their timing.  And how do you do that?  By doing exactly what we have done to this point in the season.  Let our pass rushers loose and play on the opponent's side of the LOS.  You get in the backfield and all of a sudden there are more bodies for their backs to have to run around and get through.  And with our length and range with our edge guys, and the push we have been getting up the middle as well might force Tua off his spot for a change and maybe even force him to go to his second and third reads because the timing is off.  Tua has had it way too easy in these first 3 weeks.  He's hitting his first read 80% of the time.  That just should happen in the NFL.  So, let's see what happens when he finally has trash at his feet and has to look around once in a while. 

 

What I see happening Sunday is the Dolphins hitting a couple bigger plays on us because maybe we don't get home in time, or we miss a tackle or something like that.  Make no mistake about it.....they will make some plays.  But, what I also see is that Tua won't just be sitting relaxed in the pocket without having to move easily hitting his first read every play like he's been doing for the first couple weeks.  Tua will have to move.  He will have to get to a 2nd or 3rd read on plays. They still may score in the 20s, but it won't look nearly the same as what it has in the first few weeks.  Dolphins fans keep bringing up the fact that even though they lost to us multiple times last year, the games were close.  But this is not the same defense the Bills have been running with Frazier.  They aren't going to see a 2 high defense every play with wide open spots in the zones with no pass rush because they knew exactly what our defense was going to do every snap.  They can go back and look at every game from last season.  I hope they do.  But they would be wasting their time.  This defense and the scheme we are using is totally different so far and I expect that if McDermott goes down in this game, he goes down swinging.  I don't see us blitzing much at all.  It will be up to whatever 4  are rushing to get there quick.  If we do, and we play on their side of the LOS, I like our chances.  If we score 27 or more, and don't turn the ball over, I think we win.

Edited September 30, 2023 by sven233

[Blank Stare]

6 hours ago, Aimee75 said:

I don't buy that Marcel loves the city. I will never forget that intentionally bad photo he took of Buffalo when he was here, I believe for the playoffs. He's a shady guy.

Not saying it didn’t happen, but I didn’t see that. Interesting. He seemed genuine about the city on GR this week. Talked about how he was bringing his girlfriend up with him because he’s talked the city up so much she wanted to come. 🤷‍♂️

 

To each their own I guess. I flew in to Buffalo tonight for the weekend. Hitting the game on Sunday. I always love coming here. One of my favorite places to visit. 

[Mynamemike]

19 minutes ago, sven233 said:

One thing I notice when watching the film on the Dolphins offense is not so much what they are doing on offense, but how defenses have played them so far.  They are playing scared.  They get so caught up watching what motions and eye candy they are using, it is just freezing the fronts and LBs and in turn, they are getting blown off the ball by the time they figure out what is going on.  They are reacting instead of dictating and that is giving Tua all day to throw if he needs it, but also allowing him to just lock onto his first read without having to move on.  It is also giving their backs giant holes to run through because the defensing fronts are backing off because they are trying too hard to figure out how to stop the Dolphins offense instead of attacking themselves to just try and shut it down.

 

However, at least to this point in the season, it's been exactly the opposite with the Bills defense.  We have been using both simulated and creeper pressures super well, along with changing up coverages at the snap in order to confuse the opposing offenses.  When doing this, we're still only sending 4 most of the time while dropping 7 in coverage.  But the difference is, we are getting to our spots at the snap, not waiting for the offensive players to get to theirs first and then reacting. 

 

Tua hasn't been touched in the first 3 weeks because the defensive lines and LBs are too busy waiting around trying to figure things out.  That's why when you watch the tape on their offense, everyone is laying on the ground or running backwards trying to play catch-up.  I am pretty sure you won't see us doing that Sunday.  I fully expect that McDermott will see that that key to slowing their offense down is to disrupt their timing.  And how do you do that?  By doing exactly what we have done to this point in the season.  Let our pass rushers loose and play on the opponent's side of the LOS.  You get in the backfield and all of a sudden there are more bodies for their backs to have to run around and get through.  And with our length and range with our edge guys, and the push we have been getting up the middle as well might force Tua off his spot for a change and maybe even force him to go to his second and third reads because the timing is off.  Tua has had it way too easy in these first 3 3 weeks.  He's hitting his first read 80% of the time.  That just should happen in the NFL.  So, let's see what happens when he finally has trash at his feet and has to look around once in a while. 

 

What I see happening Sunday is the Dolphins hitting a couple bigger plays on us because maybe we don't get home in time, or we miss a tackle or something like that.  Make no mistake about it.....they will make some plays.  But, what I also see is that Tua won't just be sitting relaxed in the pocket without having to move easily hitting his first read every play like he's been doing for the first couple weeks.  Tua will have to move.  He will have to get to a 2nd or 3rd read on plays. They still may score in the 20s, but it won't look nearly the same as what it has in the first few weeks.  Dolphins fans keep bringing up the fact that even though they lost to us multiple times last year, the games were close.  But this is not the same defense the Bills have been running with Frazier.  They aren't going to see a 2 high defense every play with wide open spots in the zones with no pass rush because they knew exactly what our defense was going to do every snap.  They can go back and look at every game from last season.  I hope they do.  But they would be wasting their time.  This defense and the scheme we are using is totally different so far and I expect that if McDermott goes down in this game, he goes down swinging.  I don't see us blitzing much at all.  It will be up to whatever 4  are rushing to get there quick.  If we do, and we play on their side of the LOS, I like our chances.  If we score 27 or more, and don't turn the ball over, I think we win.

I’m getting the same feeling about this game as I did the first time we faced Lamar and the Ravens when he first came on the scene.  We ended up shutting him down and set the blueprint for how to beat him.  I expect them to get yards but not let them get touchdowns.  We need to limit the touchdowns and we need to be effective in the red zone on offense,  it’s gonna be a fun game to watch p.

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, Bills!Win! said:

I have to say I’m not worried about this game. Even if the bills lose I won’t be upset. I can see both teams scoring at least 34 points. 

It's always interesting when you put your own feelings into a game like it impacts the results.

 

I wasn't worried about the first game in Miami last year and then was worried about the next two against them.

 

This game, I'm really worried about but I'm fine with whatever outcome.

 

Hopefully my worried vs not worried record keeps the wins coming.

[k2mountain]

Has the line changed since Poyer went down?

 

It seems to me to more of a Pick'em.

[Pete]

Good morning Bills Mafia. This video will make you smile.  Squish the fish!  Go Bills!

 

 

[Ya Digg?]

1 hour ago, k2mountain said:

Has the line changed since Poyer went down?

 

It seems to me to more of a Pick'em.

Bills still favored by 2.5

[mannc]

1 hour ago, k2mountain said:

Has the line changed since Poyer went down?

 

It seems to me to more of a Pick'em.

No

[SoCal Deek]

Weather forecast shows 74 and bright sunshine tomorrow in WNY. Anybody know which team gets the sunny sideline? 😉

[MILFHUNTER#518]

9 hours ago, sven233 said:

One thing I notice when watching the film on the Dolphins offense is not so much what they are doing on offense, but how defenses have played them so far.  They are playing scared.  They get so caught up watching what motions and eye candy they are using, it is just freezing the fronts and LBs and in turn, they are getting blown off the ball by the time they figure out what is going on.  They are reacting instead of dictating and that is giving Tua all day to throw if he needs it, but also allowing him to just lock onto his first read without having to move on.  It is also giving their backs giant holes to run through because the defensing fronts are backing off because they are trying too hard to figure out how to stop the Dolphins offense instead of attacking themselves to just try and shut it down.

 

However, at least to this point in the season, it's been exactly the opposite with the Bills defense.  We have been using both simulated and creeper pressures super well, along with changing up coverages at the snap in order to confuse the opposing offenses.  When doing this, we're still only sending 4 most of the time while dropping 7 in coverage.  But the difference is, we are getting to our spots at the snap, not waiting for the offensive players to get to theirs first and then reacting. 

 

Tua hasn't been touched in the first 3 weeks because the defensive lines and LBs are too busy waiting around trying to figure things out.  That's why when you watch the tape on their offense, everyone is laying on the ground or running backwards trying to play catch-up.  I am pretty sure you won't see us doing that Sunday.  I fully expect that McDermott will see that that key to slowing their offense down is to disrupt their timing.  And how do you do that?  By doing exactly what we have done to this point in the season.  Let our pass rushers loose and play on the opponent's side of the LOS.  You get in the backfield and all of a sudden there are more bodies for their backs to have to run around and get through.  And with our length and range with our edge guys, and the push we have been getting up the middle as well might force Tua off his spot for a change and maybe even force him to go to his second and third reads because the timing is off.  Tua has had it way too easy in these first 3 weeks.  He's hitting his first read 80% of the time.  That just should happen in the NFL.  So, let's see what happens when he finally has trash at his feet and has to look around once in a while. 

 

What I see happening Sunday is the Dolphins hitting a couple bigger plays on us because maybe we don't get home in time, or we miss a tackle or something like that.  Make no mistake about it.....they will make some plays.  But, what I also see is that Tua won't just be sitting relaxed in the pocket without having to move easily hitting his first read every play like he's been doing for the first couple weeks.  Tua will have to move.  He will have to get to a 2nd or 3rd read on plays. They still may score in the 20s, but it won't look nearly the same as what it has in the first few weeks.  Dolphins fans keep bringing up the fact that even though they lost to us multiple times last year, the games were close.  But this is not the same defense the Bills have been running with Frazier.  They aren't going to see a 2 high defense every play with wide open spots in the zones with no pass rush because they knew exactly what our defense was going to do every snap.  They can go back and look at every game from last season.  I hope they do.  But they would be wasting their time.  This defense and the scheme we are using is totally different so far and I expect that if McDermott goes down in this game, he goes down swinging.  I don't see us blitzing much at all.  It will be up to whatever 4  are rushing to get there quick.  If we do, and we play on their side of the LOS, I like our chances.  If we score 27 or more, and don't turn the ball over, I think we win.

This has to be one of the most cogent, well thought out and well written posts I have seen in a while. And I think your analysis is spot on. Good job! 👍 

[SCBills]

2 hours ago, k2mountain said:

Has the line changed since Poyer went down?

 

It seems to me to more of a Pick'em.

Lines don’t change because a Safety isnt playing.   Just like the line doesn’t change because a Dolphins pass rusher isn’t playing.  
 

These seem like big things, and they can be, but unless you’re dealing with a wave of injuries depleting a position group as a whole, fans usually overestimate the non-QB effect on a game’s line of a missing player or two.  
 

I do believe Von was a line-affecting loss last year, just like Chris Jones impact on the Chiefs defense is probably worth something in Vegas.   But those non-QB players who can move the line a point or two are probably under 15-20 across the entire league … Poyer and Phillips aren’t any of them. 

[Beck Water]

9 hours ago, Mynamemike said:

I’m getting the same feeling about this game as I did the first time we faced Lamar and the Ravens when he first came on the scene.  We ended up shutting him down and set the blueprint for how to beat him.  I expect them to get yards but not let them get touchdowns.  We need to limit the touchdowns and we need to be effective in the red zone on offense,  it’s gonna be a fun game to watch p.

 

Interesting analogy.  One factor in the 2019 loss to the Ravens (and our 2022 loss to the Dolphins) was that our defense did a good job containing their offense *most* of the day, but that we couldn't muster enough offense ourselves to counter.  So, mistakes played an outsized role.  The Ravens scored a TD after a strip sack of Josh Allen on 3rd and 8 gave them the ball at our 24 yd line.  Scored 5 plays later. 

 

So avoiding turnovers by our offense (and maybe generating 1-2 on defense) is going to be key.

 

I'll just add that it hasn't been uncommon for our D in past years to take a game to decode an offense.   However, I'm not sure how different the Dolphins offense really is from last year.  They had Morris, Waddle and Hill last season when we played them.

 

2 hours ago, k2mountain said:

Has the line changed since Poyer went down?

 

It seems to me to more of a Pick'em.

 

I thought when a team played at home, being favored by 2.5-3 points was a "Pick'em".

Edited September 30, 2023 by Beck Water

[DaBillsFanSince1973]