Bills @ Bears Game Day Thread?!?!?!?

[BuffaninSarasota]

1 hour ago, BigDingus said:

 

It provides a start. No stat provides ALL context, but in conjunction with what we've seen before, it still has value.

 

2020 - 35 receptions on 62 targets (58%)

2021 - 35 receptions on 63 targets (56%)

2022 - 48 receptions on 93 targets (52%)

 

So do QB's just throw worse every time he targets Gabe? Or was Gabe 1 for 4 today because he either doesn't run the best routes, drops passes, or isn't able to get seperation & fight off defenders? 

 

By comparison, here's Diggs:

 

2020 - 127 receptions on 166 targets (77%)

2021 - 103 receptions on 164 targets (63%)

2022 - 108 receptions on 154 targets (70%)

 

Guess Allen just throws better when targeting Diggs...

 

 

you cited the stats from today's game, that what I was alluding to

 

to wit:

 

  2 hours ago, syhuang said:

One is a bad throw become an interception and another is a good defense play where the cornerback has his hand on the ball. Can’t recall the 3rd one, but don’t get an impression Davis is inconsistent pulling the ball in when watching the game.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Josh looked pissed.

Not that it matters, the Bills were somehow stupid enough to have no competition for Davis....again. Mind boggling.

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

It provides a start. No stat provides ALL context, but in conjunction with what we've seen before, it still has value.

 

2020 - 35 receptions on 62 targets (58%)

2021 - 35 receptions on 63 targets (56%)

2022 - 48 receptions on 93 targets (52%)

 

So do QB's just throw worse every time he targets Gabe? Or was Gabe 1 for 4 today because he either doesn't run the best routes, drops passes, or isn't able to get seperation & fight off defenders? 

 

By comparison, here's Diggs:

 

2020 - 127 receptions on 166 targets (77%)

2021 - 103 receptions on 164 targets (63%)

2022 - 108 receptions on 154 targets (70%)

 

Guess Allen just throws better when targeting Diggs...

 

 

Personally, I think this is mostly on the QB.   

 

You know what they say about great #1s?   They say "he's open when he's covered."  In other words, the QB can throw it to him when he's covered, because he's really special fighting for the ball.  The same thing is rarely said about #2 receivers.   If a #2 receiver is open when he's covered, he becomes someone's #1.  

 

A lot of Davis's targets are ball that are contested catches.  The quarterback shouldn't be throwing the ball to him, because as a #2 almost by definition is not open when he's covered.   

 

The QB's job is to find the #1, and if he can't find the #1, he has to find the guy who is open.  Throwing contested catches to anyone but your #1 is a mistake.  With well designed modern passing routes, there's almost always an open receiver somewhere.  Find him and throw it to him.  

 

 

[Behindenemylines]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

99 years old.

 

He lives as close as he could to 100 without going over. Respect.

Winning post of the month!

[PatsFanNH]

32 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Personally, I think this is mostly on the QB.   

 

You know what they say about great #1s?   They say "he's open when he's covered."  In other words, the QB can throw it to him when he's covered, because he's really special fighting for the ball.  The same thing is rarely said about #2 receivers.   If a #2 receiver is open when he's covered, he becomes someone's #1.  

 

A lot of Davis's targets are ball that are contested catches.  The quarterback shouldn't be throwing the ball to him, because as a #2 almost by definition is not open when he's covered.   

 

The QB's job is to find the #1, and if he can't find the #1, he has to find the guy who is open.  Throwing contested catches to anyone but your #1 is a mistake.  With well designed modern passing routes, there's almost always an open receiver somewhere.  Find him and throw it to him.  

 

 

Wouldn’t the logical thing to just always throw to the open guy? I mean a guy named Brady had a decent career doing that. Lol

[Shaw66]

6 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Wouldn’t the logical thing to just always throw to the open guy? I mean a guy named Brady had a decent career doing that. Lol

Exactly.   

 

I haven't studied the stats, but I think last season Josh got greedy and threw downfield to Davis a lot because he was a big target, even though Davis wasn't really open. 

 

Find the open man and throw it to him.  

[balln]

10 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Wouldn’t the logical thing to just always throw to the open guy? I mean a guy named Brady had a decent career doing that. Lol

yea -  but the catch % stat is more about the WR than qb. over the course of 17 games and tons of pass attempts. guys like edelman and gronk either just get open , former, or just make contested catch after contested catch, latter, and thus their catch % are high. 

 

ijust think of the young group of wr - wilson, waddle, hill, devonte smtih - those guys GET OPEN. and then players like aj brown and all of cincys WR that just make contested catches

 

gabe just isnt a great WR2 for a championship team - for whatever reason - thats why the catch % stat is great. His hands suck sometimes/ awkward in game placement and his college scout takes and RAS shows hes not gonn be a good separation / route runner.  that one 4TD game in :13 seconds is fools gold. He had a good day. They were doubling diggs. He played against KC DB  scrubs that year

Edited August 27, 2023 by balln

[Simon]

4 minutes ago, balln said:

yea -  but the catch % stat is more about the WR than qb. over the course of 17 games and tons of pass attempts.

 

Probably also has something to do with the fact that he threw balls downfield more often to Davis, which are lower percentage plays.

[PatsFanNH]

1 minute ago, balln said:

yea -  but the catch % stat is more about the WR than qb. over the course of 17 games and tons of pass attempts. guys like edelman and gronk either just get open , former, or just make contested catch after contested catch and thus their catch % are high. 

 

ijust think of the young group of wr - wilson, waddle, hill, devonte smtih - those guys GET OPEN. and then players like aj brown and all of cincys WR that just make contested catches

 

gabe just isnt a great WR2 for a championship team - for whatever reason - thats why the catch % stat is great. His hands suck sometimes/ awkward in game placement and his college scout takes and RAS shows hes not gonn be a good separation / route runner.  that one 4TD game in :13 seconds is fools gold. He had a good day. They were doubling diggs. He played against KC DB  scrubs that year

I disagree. The catch % is just as much on the QB. If he is throwing it short and at his feet or throwing over his head or behind him that’s on the QB. The % is on the WR when it’s a good pass and not thrown into coverage.. (hard blame a guy for not coming down with a pass when he gets hammered the second it gets to him. )

 

You are also using something I hate being used in Sports.. Analytics… they say 78% of the time X will happen.. we’ll I say hitting the open WR will work almost 100% of the time and keep analytics out of it that killed baseball. 

[balln]

11 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

I disagree. The catch % is just as much on the QB. If he is throwing it short and at his feet or throwing over his head or behind him that’s on the QB. The % is on the WR when it’s a good pass and not thrown into coverage.. (hard blame a guy for not coming down with a pass when he gets hammered the second it gets to him. )

 

You are also using something I hate being used in Sports.. Analytics… they say 78% of the time X will happen.. we’ll I say hitting the open WR will work almost 100% of the time and keep analytics out of it that killed baseball. 

thats not the conclusion im making at all from that stat. nothingis perfect. it just tells me less passes should go to that player if im dorsey/allen.

Edited August 27, 2023 by balln

[maddenboy]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

This is classic Edmunds. Decides to give extra attention to the one WR that was already covered and lets Diggs run right by him uncontested.

this is classic Edmunds

Cant decide, so panics.   (you can almost hear him think "shtt.  what am i supposed to do now")

Cant decide because he still doesnt know that opponents are gonna take advantage of his indecision.  not just his wrong decisions.  Its like he doesnt study enough, or correctly. 

 

what you're 'supposed' to do is anticipate that presnap.  and maybe adjust a coverage call.  And trust that everybody knows that you will do exactly what youre supposed to.  which is your designed 1/11.  At full speed, decisively.

 

Edited August 27, 2023 by maddenboy

[balln]

10 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

Probably also has something to do with the fact that he threw balls downfield more often to Davis, which are lower percentage plays.

youd have to show me the depth of target for both of them. i bet its not too far apart

[Simon]

2 minutes ago, balln said:

youd have to show me the depth of target for both of them. i bet its not too far apart

 

I have no idea where to find that but I'd guess it's far enough apart to account for some of the differential, but certainly not for most of it.

[maddenboy]

4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Josh looked pissed.

funny. 

 

 (when gabe dropped that first pass in a preseason game that hit him correctly) I think each and every one of us looked instantly at Josh to see his reaction.   because . . . dood.  wtf? 

 

a part of me, when the camera panned to Josh, hoped josh would flash a glare at McD, not just at Gabe.

 

Edited August 27, 2023 by maddenboy

[BBFL]

Liked what i saw again from Jamarcus Ingram. Hope he sticks around in Buffalo, if not, pretty sure someone picks him up. 

[BBFL]

Also, I’m not seeing this elite speed from Harty & Sherfield…

[syhuang]

48 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

I have no idea where to find that but I'd guess it's far enough apart to account for some of the differential, but certainly not for most of it.

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-wr.php?team=BUF

 

2022 YBC/R (yards before catch per reception)

 

Diggs: 9.3yd

Davis: 14.4yd

[JohninMinn.]

15 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Will be fun to see Edmunds make tackles 15 yards up field again. If he plays.

I wonder if they know he piles on and injures teamates.

[Mark Vader]

10 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

Nice play by KeeSean johnson.

I'm stunned that you didn't say, "Throw Him The Damn Ball!"

[Richard Noggin]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Personally, I think this is mostly on the QB.   

 

You know what they say about great #1s?   They say "he's open when he's covered."  In other words, the QB can throw it to him when he's covered, because he's really special fighting for the ball.  The same thing is rarely said about #2 receivers.   If a #2 receiver is open when he's covered, he becomes someone's #1.  

 

A lot of Davis's targets are ball that are contested catches.  The quarterback shouldn't be throwing the ball to him, because as a #2 almost by definition is not open when he's covered.   

 

The QB's job is to find the #1, and if he can't find the #1, he has to find the guy who is open.  Throwing contested catches to anyone but your #1 is a mistake.  With well designed modern passing routes, there's almost always an open receiver somewhere.  Find him and throw it to him.  

 

 

 

If a WR's catch % is consistently below average, and also below other receivers that the SAME QB is throwing to, how can that be "mostly on the QB"? You aren't even considering Occam's Razor here. The simple, bigger picture objective truth is that throwing to Davis is Allen's lowest percentage option. (High reward, but too much risk for a high volume of targets.)

 

Davis' avg depth of target, and resulting eye-popping yards per reception, means we really should have more tolerance for lower efficiency numbers, for sure. Gabe Davis HAS undoubtedly flashed some splash deep and red zone plays against man coverage (we can all immediately recall a handful of plays concentrated mostly in a few games). I just can't ignore his bizarrely flawed catching fundamentals at times (that reaching/clapping thing he does when coming back to the ball, especially) and the times when he's just WAY out of sync with his QB when reading and reacting to coverages on option routes (sometimes easier to pick up on in person at the stadium). 

 

You see a lack of separation on routes that aren't flags, posts, or flies. He kind of sucks, statistically, doing much else. Drops a LOT of passes. Interrupts an offensive "schedule" too often to be a high volume, true #2 option over the course of a season. 

 

[John from Riverside]

Not hearing much about Tremaine Edmunds, and I think he played
 

Was he that unnoticeable for $19 million

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, BBFL said:

Also, I’m not seeing this elite speed from Harty & Sherfield…

 

Sherfield isn't an elite speed guy. He was pretty darn good yesterday though. He is a bit of a jack of all trades but he is going to find a role on this team.

[Richard Noggin]

44 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Not hearing much about Tremaine Edmunds, and I think he played
 

Was he that unnoticeable for $19 million

 

Kinda par for the course innit

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 hours ago, BBFL said:

Also, I’m not seeing this elite speed from Harty & Sherfield…

 No? I thought Harty looked dangerous after the catch. Didn’t do much but I saw something. I think he’ll be a good addition. Something we haven’t had. The first catch went for a short gain but just the way he moved after I know he will turn those into big gains sometimes.

[BBFL]

33 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Sherfield isn't an elite speed guy. He was pretty darn good yesterday though. He is a bit of a jack of all trades but he is going to find a role on this team.

You’re right, grouping him in that rite section was silly of me. He was rather supposed to be explosive 4.4 chess piece that could get on top of DBs quickly. Maybe I’m just missing it. 

[balln]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Sherfield isn't an elite speed guy. He was pretty darn good yesterday though. He is a bit of a jack of all trades but he is going to find a role on this team.

https://youtu.be/Uit0_3xTpmw?si=_c8jXboUZrkaOfIO

he has elite speed. This against the vaunted 49ers. 

[GunnerBill]

34 minutes ago, balln said:

https://youtu.be/Uit0_3xTpmw?si=_c8jXboUZrkaOfIO

he has elite speed. This against the vaunted 49ers. 

 

He is fast. I wouldn't say it is elite speed. He is a mid 4.4s guy. That is fast it isn't elite.

[BobbyC81]

23 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Get the ones formerly used in gin mills.  Heavy glassware or metal lead to more durability! 😁

Worse if he’s tossing them at the TV, though.

[BobbyC81]

9 hours ago, balln said:

yea -  but the catch % stat is more about the WR than qb. over the course of 17 games and tons of pass attempts. guys like edelman and gronk either just get open , former, or just make contested catch after contested catch, latter, and thus their catch % are high. 

 

ijust think of the young group of wr - wilson, waddle, hill, devonte smtih - those guys GET OPEN. and then players like aj brown and all of cincys WR that just make contested catches

 

gabe just isnt a great WR2 for a championship team - for whatever reason - thats why the catch % stat is great. His hands suck sometimes/ awkward in game placement and his college scout takes and RAS shows hes not gonn be a good separation / route runner.  that one 4TD game in :13 seconds is fools gold. He had a good day. They were doubling diggs. He played against KC DB  scrubs that year

A key in his big KC game was that Tyrone Matheiu was injured in the first half and didn’t return.

[Shaw66]

8 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

If a WR's catch % is consistently below average, and also below other receivers that the SAME QB is throwing to, how can that be "mostly on the QB"? You aren't even considering Occam's Razor here. The simple, bigger picture objective truth is that throwing to Davis is Allen's lowest percentage option. (High reward, but too much risk for a high volume of targets.)

 

Davis' avg depth of target, and resulting eye-popping yards per reception, means we really should have more tolerance for lower efficiency numbers, for sure. Gabe Davis HAS undoubtedly flashed some splash deep and red zone plays against man coverage (we can all immediately recall a handful of plays concentrated mostly in a few games). I just can't ignore his bizarrely flawed catching fundamentals at times (that reaching/clapping thing he does when coming back to the ball, especially) and the times when he's just WAY out of sync with his QB when reading and reacting to coverages on option routes (sometimes easier to pick up on in person at the stadium). 

 

You see a lack of separation on routes that aren't flags, posts, or flies. He kind of sucks, statistically, doing much else. Drops a LOT of passes. Interrupts an offensive "schedule" too often to be a high volume, true #2 option over the course of a season. 

 

I'm responding to you and Balln.   A typical #2 is not good to great at getting separation and is not good to great at making contested catches.   A guy who is good to great at one or both of those skills is a #1 receiver.   People are naming players like Hill and Waddle and Cinci's wideouts.   Someone mentioned Gronk and Edelman.   They're all #1 receivers.  Why?  Because they're all good to great at getting open using their own skills, or in Gronk's case they're open when they're covered, so they don't need to separate.  

 

Good #2s have decent speed, and are reliable ball catchers when they're open.   They get open by executing their routes within the scheme; sometimes the defender makes a mistake, and sometimes the route design stresses the defense in a way that allows the #2 to get open.   A #2 should be targeted only when that happens.  They are not good at getting separation.  The only #2s who separate well are #1s on their rookie contracts, by and large.

 

I don't mind when Josh throws to a covered Diggs, because Diggs is a true #1.  I do mind when Josh throws to a covered Davis, because that's a low-percentage throw.   A three-yard dump off is a better decision than a 16-yard throw to a covered Davis.   Throwing to Davis, or to any other covered #2, is a low percentage throw that is bad for the offense.   If you want Davis's catch percentage to go up, tell Josh to stop throwing to him when he's covered.   And when he does that, guess what will happen:  Josh's completion percentage will go up.   That three-yard dump off is a much better play for the team, and is much more likely to keep a drive alive, than a low percentage 16-yard throw to Davis when he's covered.  

 

I think you misunderstand what a typical #2 receiver is in the NFL.  

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm responding to you and Balln.   A typical #2 is not good to great at getting separation and is not good to great at making contested catches.   A guy who is good to great at one or both of those skills is a #1 receiver.   People are naming players like Hill and Waddle and Cinci's wideouts.   Someone mentioned Gronk and Edelman.   They're all #1 receivers.  Why?  Because they're all good to great at getting open using their own skills, or in Gronk's case they're open when they're covered, so they don't need to separate.  

 

Good #2s have decent speed, and are reliable ball catchers when they're open.   They get open by executing their routes within the scheme; sometimes the defender makes a mistake, and sometimes the route design stresses the defense in a way that allows the #2 to get open.   A #2 should be targeted only when that happens.  They are not good at getting separation.  The only #2s who separate well are #1s on their rookie contracts, by and large.

 

I don't mind when Josh throws to a covered Diggs, because Diggs is a true #1.  I do mind when Josh throws to a covered Davis, because that's a low-percentage throw.   A three-yard dump off is a better decision than a 16-yard throw to a covered Davis.   Throwing to Davis, or to any other covered #2, is a low percentage throw that is bad for the offense.   If you want Davis's catch percentage to go up, tell Josh to stop throwing to him when he's covered.   And when he does that, guess what will happen:  Josh's completion percentage will go up.   That three-yard dump off is a much better play for the team, and is much more likely to keep a drive alive, than a low percentage 16-yard throw to Davis when he's covered.  

 

I think you misunderstand what a typical #2 receiver is in the NFL.  

 

That's a vast over-generalization.    Teams with your fictional "typical #2" .........well, no team like that has reached the SB in the past half decade and maybe a just couple in the past 15(Seattle and Carolina).  

 

The bar is much higher for a SB team.   That's the objective in Buffalo.

 

The big issue with Davis is that he's the second worst WR at dropping catchable passes in the NFL behind only Zay Jones..........and he was like 185th out of 197 qualifying players in catch % and nobody with anywhere near as many targets was worse.    And what helps underscore the impact of that is that brutal passer rating of 80 when targeted.   Which defeats the argument that his big plays make it worthwhile to target him 6-7 times per game.   An elite QB shouldn't be rating 80 when throwing to his second target.   That's just terrible.

 

Bottom line is that Davis is a WR3 in the NFL.   He's not going to some other team with a lesser QB and putting up the numbers that playing with Josh Allen allows him to.

[BillsShredder83]

Going back and watching the game since i missed it yesterday. Wont be able to do whole game, but re-watching each play and 1 player at a time to see how our OL/DL looks, and include things that stuck out. I might come back and update this... but so far.....

 

BILLS D FIRST POSSESSION (3 and out i think, was a short drive if im wrong, i forgot lol_

-Boogie looks like he majorly changed his body composition. not only doesnt look fat, but looks built like a brick shiz house. Saw him out there first play and couldnt see name/number, and was like who the hell is that??? What a great surprise, hopefully translates this year.

 

-Daquan ate several double teams, one of those reps wasnt exactly a pressure, but got good penetration, and him getting his hands out caused an incompletion. Nice

 

BILLS OFF FIRST DRIVE (Nice TD Drive)

-Harty is an explosive route runner, so fast and change of direction is sudden. If he stays healthy hes going to have a nice year for us

 

-Torrence is a monster in the run game. Above average pass blocker right now, and expect him to improve as the year goes on, but he did give up 2 pressures

 

-Edwards looks like great depth piece, this OL wouldve been a lot better had he started here last year. Think McGovern will be a stud, so there is a drop off, however, he wont be a liability.  Looked good on the drive, made smart decisions. Came in and pancaked Dawkins man when he realized he was freed up. Also, saw a play he was helping out Dion, Dion had the guy locked up well, so he slid over to help Morse out on a rep

 

-Diggs/Davis had a real nice rub play, they both ended up open even though Diggs got the ball.

 

-Dawkins looked lost on a few plays. Specifically a Cook run on first down that got blown up. Morse-Torrence-Brown did their jobs well, but 2 defenders came in off left side, basically untouched while Dion was looking around for someone to block. Not Edwards best rep either, but Dion looked worse

 

-Camera work was awful on broadcast. Few plays they were zoomed out way tooooo far. Then a weird one where pre-snap, they were zoomed way the hell in, all you could see was like the tops of the helmets, they transitioned to a regular view, but the play hadyard alraedy developed. I remember last season the NFL suddenly having bad camera work quite a bit.

      Also, the broadcast just sucked a lot last year. I remember frequently wanting to see a replay of a big play, and theyre zoomed in on sideline not showing the play, then the next play starts, like - oh i guess nobody wanted to see that play again? Was weird as i dont ever remember this being more than a one-off thing the rest of my life.  Hopefully they get it figured out

 

-Morse is so solid, he did a great job of looking for work on plays where he didnt end up having a man

 

-Gabes drop sucked, ughhhh. Probably a few ppl on here thought he had two, but the second one was nice defense break up. He somewhat made up for it with 2 catches though (1? i forget, was focused on line play mostly)

 

-Few plays before the Harris TD, Kink drew a holding penalty. That was 100% a TD for him had it not happened

 

-Good to finally see Harris out there. OL did a great job blowing their man up and opening that hole for TD

 

DEFENSE 2ND SERIES (another quick series)

-Oliver - It was noticeable on the first series to, but he looks really good. Looks like the disruptor we drafted (and extended).  We've seen flashes of this before but he looks as good as he did  early last year when he was a monster. Just about beating his guy off the snap, first step is both quick and explosive, his man is already going backwards from there. 

    Hungry to make plays, hes in the backfield almost every play.  Will note it here, on the 3rd drive he creates serious pressure on a play, QB steps to other side of pocket in a way where Ed's almost out of the play (having already done his job), and he turns on the burners and chases him like I've never seen lol

 

-Floyd gets in backfield on a run, tackles already been made, and an OL innocently enough sort of has a hand on his shoulder from behind, and he whips around, and gets in his face. Absolutely love that fire, is contagious on the field

 

-Rousseau on this drive (a short one) is in a 2pt stance twice.  Cant say i remember him doing much of this last year?

 

BILLS 2ND POSSESSION OFFENSE

- Saw Kincaid execute a real nice chip block! If he gets that up to speed fast, we may never leave 12 personnel

 

-Speaking of 12 personnel. I was zoned in on Kincaid the first time I watched this play. On 2nd review of same play, KNOX ABSOLUTELY OBLITERATES HIS MAN ON A QUICK CHIP BLOCK! JUST WOWWWWWWW.  Our two stud TE's helped a pretty nice 19yard completion to Sherfield develop on this play

 

 

 

-Sherfield decides to return the favor to the rest of offense. He's motioned from outside in tight next to TE on the line.  Man he's strong. His block ends up turning what would've been a negative yard run from Cook, into a 5-6yarder.  While he might not exactly turn into a fan favorite, he's already a coaching staff favorite with what he brings to run game, they love that stuff.

    He also gets downfield to lockup a man in the secondary a few plays later. What a freaking upgrade from Touchdown False-Profit Kumerow.  He's a stud blocker, and he actually can make plays to catch. He's going to see a lot of playing time this year!

 

-Buffalo runs a very well executed screen to Cook. Right side of the line holds up strong, and Dion does a great job selling it! He came out of his stance VERY SLOW, looked like he didnt know the snap count, and his man took the bait.  Now the play came back on a ticky tack block in the back on Edwards, great play, well executed. My God, if this team figured out a screen game, it will be the first time Ive seen it in my life!

 

-Drive ends on a Kyle Allen interception... Brown really struggles with his man, getting drove straight back into the QB. Ugly rep for him. The good news is Josh would've never let that man pressure him like Kyle did, and there's no way he's throwing the ball where Kyle did. It was across the field with a man draped all over him (might have been Gabe, but not his fault at all)

Edited August 28, 2023 by BillsShredder83