Predicting Big 2023 Season for Kaiir Elam and James Cook

[CSBill]

I can't predict, but both must have productive seasons (start and be above average) for the Bills to be serious SB contenders this season.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

On 6/26/2023 at 3:27 PM, RoyBatty is alive said:

I don't necessarily disagree with you but think that was more or less decided when we added Harris and Murray.  He will be a return man/backup RB and gadget player.  A McKenzie that doesn't drop the ball as much.

 

Figure one of harris or murray isn't active on gameday - likely expecting one to get banged up at some point anyway. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

10 hours ago, NewEra said:

I’d rather just give those touches to cook.  It’s not like he’s going to get overworked.  Harris is going to get his carries, there’s no doubt in my mind.  Giving cook those snaps you speak of intended for Hines gives us better productivity (imo) and saves us a roster spot.  If we think we have other solid options in the return game, I would hope we move on and get a late round pick in return.  
 

I was really excited about landing a guy with his speed and explosiveness.  I’m down on him based on what I saw him do on offense wearing a Bills uniform.  
 

He’s got game…. I just think cook has a lot more and would rather give him those reps

 

I like having him simply because if cook were to get hurt - he can replace him better than some of our depth could have in the past.  I also don't want Hines getting whole drives, but maybe some unique stuff for third downs or in the red zone.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

19 hours ago, NewEra said:

Cook and Hines in the backfield takes knox or Kincaid off the field. No thanks.

 

hines is borderline useless in this offense imo.  Cook >>>>>>>>>>>>> hines

 

In the red zone we have struggled to run the ball against some of the stouter run defenses (someone like the jets or cincy).  Hines and cook can function as some eye candy, motion outside to create a mismatch situation with a linebacker, force them to adjust etc.  Just a different way to attack a team with speed instead of size.  

 

The main thing i want to avoid this season is being predictable.  We have that stable of playmakers that all do things a bit differently so we really have a lot of ways to attack.  

[RoyBatty is alive]

29 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Figure one of harris or murray isn't active on gameday - likely expecting one to get banged up at some point anyway. 

Totally realistic

[NewEra]

44 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

In the red zone we have struggled to run the ball against some of the stouter run defenses (someone like the jets or cincy).  Hines and cook can function as some eye candy, motion outside to create a mismatch situation with a linebacker, force them to adjust etc.  Just a different way to attack a team with speed instead of size.  

 

The main thing i want to avoid this season is being predictable.  We have that stable of playmakers that all do things a bit differently so we really have a lot of ways to attack.  

 

49 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

I like having him simply because if cook were to get hurt - he can replace him better than some of our depth could have in the past.  I also don't want Hines getting whole drives, but maybe some unique stuff for third downs or in the red zone.  

Good points-  

 

personally- I’d rather have the draft pick and cap room.  
 

regarding the red zone- I don’t think we’ll ever see cook and Hines on the field at the same time.  

[RoyBatty is alive]

49 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

In the red zone we have struggled to run the ball against some of the stouter run defenses (someone like the jets or cincy).  Hines and cook can function as some eye candy, motion outside to create a mismatch situation with a linebacker, force them to adjust etc.  Just a different way to attack a team with speed instead of size.  

 

The main thing i want to avoid this season is being predictable.  We have that stable of playmakers that all do things a bit differently so we really have a lot of ways to attack.  

Yes we can do some outside motion with them but now we do have more "size".    Lets see if they have "solved" their totally inept guard play this year, combined with Harris I think they could actually run the ball for TDs.

[colin]

i don't know how much they will play him, but i expect cook to be a monster when he does play.

 

im still baffled by hines, they just don't want to throw rb passes or use him it seems.

 

i think elam is a starter if not all year then most of the year.  i suspect tre might get either hurt again, or sat for banford to start over him at some point.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

40 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Yes we can do some outside motion with them but now we do have more "size".    Lets see if they have "solved" their totally inept guard play this year, combined with Harris I think they could actually run the ball for TDs.

 

Yeah, we tended to be stupid and really show our hand in the red zone last year.  Constantly spreading out despite pass pro issues, no play action from under center, just run routes and expect allen to buy time and find stuff.  That and running same plays out of same formations based on down and distance.  

 

Not saying change EVERYthing but you should have counterpunches prepared vs. each opponent.  

[pocoboy]

On 6/26/2023 at 8:56 PM, Kwai San said:

I'm all in on both......amazing how many folks just love to crap on these guys.  Your home lives must be absolutely miserable.

 

The tough part is owning enough computers to juggle between the 5-6 accounts.

[newcam2012]

19 hours ago, BuffBillsForLife said:

I would say Cook has a big year, but McBeane love RBBC too much for that to really happen.  Elam is just a wing and a prayer at this point.

Cook has never been a high volume RB. Look back at his college days in Ga..

 

I don't see him getting a large amount of touches in this offense. He shows promise. His quickness and speed must be maximized. Good luck there with Dorsey. The RB situation seems a little crowed right now. 

 

I think he can have a  nice year but I do think some expectations here are a little too rosey. Cook still has a lot to prove. 

[newcam2012]

12 hours ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

First I wasn't referring to him rushing, I was talking out the backfield type passes with his speed if getting him into space..... that being said, I'll still address your question, he is also a threat as KR/PR so that plays into it.

 

He won't have very many opportunities rushing anyways unless injuries become a big factor but certain issues like the screen game etc type plays is clearly an area Bills need to figure out. If they do that then he has the speed that as you said any one of "20 UDFAs" may not have.

 

 

 

Well yeah, you don't take touches from Cook. I'm saying if he rotates in once in a while or maybe ends up getting more opportunities due to injury and can catch the ball with just a little bit of room he could definitely make some plays

It's yet to be seen if Cook is able to be effective with a consistent large work load. 

 

He's a pretty small RB and he's never had an opportunity to be a high volume RB. An increased workload doesn't always equate to better production. 

2 hours ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Figure one of harris or murray isn't active on gameday - likely expecting one to get banged up at some point anyway. 

Harris for sure has huge injury concerns. Think Crowder for a reference. 

[hondo in seattle]

I'll go out on a limb and say Harris starts, though Cook will get his touches both as a ball carrier and as a receiver out of the backfield.  

 

Harris and Cook will get the most carries.  

 

Murray and Hines will both be used in certain situations but with significantly fewer touches than Harris and Cook.  

 

I do hope Dorsey uses Hines some in the passing game.  He can catch and is dangerous in space.  

[pocoboy]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

I'll go out on a limb and say Harris starts, though Cook will get his touches both as a ball carrier and as a receiver out of the backfield. 

 

I'm probably reading this wrong, but it seems to me that the hope is that Cook impresses in camp and gives them the chance to release Harris. I feel like Murray is a bruiser back they need in the short down situations to complement Cook, and would prefer not to be using Cook as the changeup to Harris.

 

Like, if you look at 2022 rushing yardage stats, the next name after Damien Harris is...Zach Moss. And Moss has a better YPC than Harris.

 

I'm assuming they wanted competition to challenge Cook, but it's tough to believe that aside from a true "kicking of the tires" that either guy (Harris or Murray) is their plan on 1st down.

Edited June 28, 2023 by pocoboy

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Elam should be a 17 game starter. He was the best defender on the field in the playoffs. 

White will start by reputation but he was not good last year. We all wanted White on the field but after watching him play they probably would have been better with Jackson and Elam on the field in the playoffs.  

I have a strong suspicion 2023 is the last year White is a Bill. After this year his dead cap falls quite a bit. Either that or he moves to safety. 

The wildcard is Benford. Is he a safety in waiting or is he an outside corner? He's a cheap option to start on a team that will be in cap hell for years to come.

 

As for RB, I think it will be a committee. I don't see anyone getting close to 1000 yards. Not how I would coach it but it is how McD will. He likes his veteran backs for some reason. Cook could be a true bell cow but it won't play out like that. Harris should be excellent at times if he stays healthy. I dont expect much from Murray.  Bills running backs accounted for only 1300 yards last year. I think it will be closer to 1500-1600 this year.  They will run more and Josh will run less. My guess Cook gets 800, Lewis 500 and Murray picks up the scraps around 250. 

[BigAl2526]

15 hours ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

Not sure I'd go quite that far lol.....I think he could do well with his speed if can ever  get him the ball in space. And we know that's something that needs improvement getting each of the RBs involved. I mean I'm just saying I don't think he's hardly had nearly enough opportunities yet to know how useful or useless he is in this offense.

 

 

I think Himes could do some good things if he had more opportunities, but at this point I think the coaching staff has decided to use him primarily on special teams for his return abilities.

[maddenboy]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

White will start by reputation but he was not good last year. . . .

 

I have a strong suspicion 2023 is the last year White is a Bill. . .

 

 

As for RB, I think it will be a committee. I don't see anyone getting close to 1000 yards. Not how I would coach it but it is how McD will. He likes his veteran backs for some reason. Cook could be a true bell cow but it won't play out like that.

this and this.  

 

And for the evaluators on this site, can White be a safety?  As Ethan suggests?  He is smart in this defense.  But body-type, movement, communication, etc, is it reasonable?

 

(not asking whether he should.   not asking whether he would want to)

 

Edited June 28, 2023 by maddenboy

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

On 6/26/2023 at 8:56 PM, Kwai San said:

I'm all in on both......amazing how many folks just love to crap on these guys.  Your home lives must be absolutely miserable.

I never understood why people suggest that if you’re not 1000% in on everything  Bills do, then you must be a miserable person. I think Spencer Brown sucks when I’m on my boat with good friends watching the sunset on a beautiful summer evening. I am certainly not miserable because I think he’s not really swell at NFL Level football. 

[John from Riverside]

After cover one did that piece with Elam I became much more invested in him
 

He is a smart player and really should be in that number two corner position

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

Cook is going to have a monster year. He really started to come on in the latter part of the season rushing & receiving. I think Elam is gonna need another year, but if Tre White can return to at least 90% then the secondary will be in good hands. Having a consistently good Safety duo really helps as well. 

[3rdand12]

On 6/26/2023 at 1:54 PM, RoyBatty is alive said:

I think both will have a major uptick in playing time and productivity in 2023.  We all know how difficult it is for rookies in the NFL and how reticent McDermott is to play rookies.  Both now have a year  and I think both have have a great season.

 

James Cook. On his first career carry, Cook fumbled which really put him in the dog house.  With the exception of the blowout win 41-7 over the Titans, Cook averaged only 3.7 carries a game until December after which he averaged 8.6/game, among other factors took a while for them to have faith in him.  He only had 89 total carries for the years with 507 yards, an impressive 5.7/carry (even if you take out his longest run, a TBD favorite stat, it was still 5.4/carry).  He didn't have much in terms of a seasoned RB room with Zach Moss and Devon Singletary.  I think the addition of veterans Murray and Harris (the "patriot way", fwiw) can only help.  Most importantly, the Bills made a concerted effort to beef up the interior of the O Line. He can crack through the front line with some real O line help, he might get into the open to use his speed.

 

Also more experience receiving the ball.  I think the much maligned Dorsey could even split him out as a WR.  In combination with the hybrid WR/TE Kincaid, could present some real match opportunities.

 

He isnt the biggest back and probably never be a 200+ carry/year, (good reason to have Murray and Harris) but I think in yards from scrimmage, he can crack 1,000 yards.

 

Kaiir  Elam.  I strongly encourage listening to the Cover 1 interview with Kaiir Elam.  The easy manner he can discuss in depth how he reads and bates the QBs is entertaining, not something I expected from a 1 year experience player.  And he answered decisively, he appeared to know what he is supposed to do cold.  I love it when talking about Pickett he said he was "young" and tried to be a "gunslinger", not arrogantly just matter of fact and how he baited Pickett to throw the int.  He studies his opponents and if you recall, on the draft interview he had notes on all the college receivers he faced, it wasn't marketing ploy, i think it was legit.

 

He came out of Florida , transition from more man and it takes time to master the NFL zone coverages, one of the factors why he had a regular season PFF grade of only 56.7 but then a playoff PFF grade of 87.1.

 

I think Kaiir wins starting CB#2 and I will put  the over/under on regular season INTS in 2023 at 4.

I approve of this post

Go Bills !

 

[3rdand12]

On 6/27/2023 at 2:06 PM, NewEra said:

Cook and Hines in the backfield takes knox or Kincaid off the field. No thanks.

 

hines is borderline useless in this offense imo.  Cook >>>>>>>>>>>>> hines

Not sure i can agree.

You can leave Morris in actually and threaten to split either Hines or Cook out etc etc with them. They both can play WR to some degree and have explosive speed

11 hours ago, NewEra said:

 

Good points-  

 

personally- I’d rather have the draft pick and cap room.  
 

regarding the red zone- I don’t think we’ll ever see cook and Hines on the field at the same time.  

Fair comment

But i will be looking all season for this just cuz 🙂

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, 3rdand12 said:

Not sure i can agree.

You can leave Morris in actually and threaten to split either Hines or Cook out etc etc with them. They both can play WR to some degree and have explosive speed

Fair comment

But i will be looking all season for this just cuz 🙂

ok.  We disagree.  We’ll wait and see how many times cook and Hines are on the field together in the red zone. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

22 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I'll go out on a limb and say Harris starts, though Cook will get his touches both as a ball carrier and as a receiver out of the backfield.  

 

Harris and Cook will get the most carries.  

 

Murray and Hines will both be used in certain situations but with significantly fewer touches than Harris and Cook.  

 

I do hope Dorsey uses Hines some in the passing game.  He can catch and is dangerous in space.  

I think Hines was a de-facto Isaiah McKenzie replacement that wont drop as many balls.  I agree, we should actually THROW once in a while to our RBs, especially Cook and Hines, they both have speed and operate well in space.  Maybe do something radical this year like a screen pass to a RB, maybe our O Line with Kromer in and Dorsey in year 2 can actually design some plays.

[hondo in seattle]

23 hours ago, pocoboy said:

 

I'm probably reading this wrong, but it seems to me that the hope is that Cook impresses in camp and gives them the chance to release Harris. I feel like Murray is a bruiser back they need in the short down situations to complement Cook, and would prefer not to be using Cook as the changeup to Harris.

 

Like, if you look at 2022 rushing yardage stats, the next name after Damien Harris is...Zach Moss. And Moss has a better YPC than Harris.

 

I'm assuming they wanted competition to challenge Cook, but it's tough to believe that aside from a true "kicking of the tires" that either guy (Harris or Murray) is their plan on 1st down.

 

My view of Harris is a little different because I don't see him as Moss.  Harris is bigger, faster, better.  If Moss's stats are comparable, it's because Moss played against light boxes with us since we're a passing team.  Since Brady left, Belichick has been running a far more balanced offense there.  Defenses actually game-plan for the Pats' running attack because it's a real threat.  

 

Of course, my view of Harris is a bit skewed by his performances in Bills games.  He always looked good against us.  

 

But I've visited Pats message boards and knowledgeable Pats fans do seem to think highly of him.  Harris is not the best receiving threat, but he is a good all-around back you can leave in there on different down-and-distance situations.  

[Buffalo Junction]

2 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

I think Hines was a de-facto Isaiah McKenzie replacement that wont drop as many balls.  I agree, we should actually THROW once in a while to our RBs, especially Cook and Hines, they both have speed and operate well in space.  Maybe do something radical this year like a screen pass to a RB, maybe our O Line with Kromer in and Dorsey in year 2 can actually design some plays.

The biggest problem this team has with RB screens is Josh Allen. More specifically, how teams play against Allen. Teams will often have a spy, slow rush the ends, or utilize other tactics to maintain extra eyes and a free man in the backfield. The result is that it’s easier to sniff out screens to RBs. 
 

Now, what I’d really like to see as an alternative are more TE and WR screens. The added size and speed this year to the pass catching units should help with this. There very well could be some easy big plays available if you can get a screen to Hardy behind Gabe and Kincaid

[RoyBatty is alive]

7 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

The biggest problem this team has with RB screens is Josh Allen. More specifically, how teams play against Allen. Teams will often have a spy, slow rush the ends, or utilize other tactics to maintain extra eyes and a free man in the backfield. The result is that it’s easier to sniff out screens to RBs. 
 

Now, what I’d really like to see as an alternative are more TE and WR screens. The added size and speed this year to the pass catching units should help with this. There very well could be some easy big plays available if you can get a screen to Hardy behind Gabe and Kincaid

Great point, yep I would be spying Allen too if I was a DC versus him so a RB screen is problematic.  Now TE and WRs screens make a lot of sense, esp if Kincaid pans out

Edited June 29, 2023 by RoyBatty is alive

[hondo in seattle]

21 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Cook is going to have a monster year. He really started to come on in the latter part of the season rushing & receiving. I think Elam is gonna need another year, but if Tre White can return to at least 90% then the secondary will be in good hands. Having a consistently good Safety duo really helps as well. 

 

Cook is a talented guy and I hope you're right.  But I'm not convinced yet that he's an every down back.  

[RoyBatty is alive]

25 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Cook is a talented guy and I hope you're right.  But I'm not convinced yet that he's an every down back.  

He really isnt, he is on the small side.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

4 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Cook is a talented guy and I hope you're right.  But I'm not convinced yet that he's an every down back.  

Monster year for a Bills RB. 1000 yards 7 TDs

[3rdand12]

20 hours ago, NewEra said:

ok.  We disagree.  We’ll wait and see how many times cook and Hines are on the field together in the red zone. 

I live in a Fantasy world when it comes to Offensive play calling. Just to be honest.
But yea lets watch for how they use Hines this season
That loaded backfield is going to be wild to play call for with both speed and power to choose from , and all of them can catch the ball.

 Josh might need some humble this season (yea right)
But Bills really good bring a multi and balance run game from week to week  

[RoyBatty is alive]

22 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

I live in a Fantasy world when it comes to Offensive play calling. Just to be honest.
But yea lets watch for how they use Hines this season
That loaded backfield is going to be wild to play call for with both speed and power to choose from , and all of them can catch the ball.

 Josh might need some humble this season (yea right)
But Bills really good bring a multi and balance run game from week to week  

Have we had, in last few years real speed or real power?  I dont think we had.  Moss and Singletary were almost or close to the same player.

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

2 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Have we had, in last few years real speed or real power?  I dont think we had.  Moss and Singletary were almost or close to the same player.

The Moss/Singletary tandem had neither speed nor power. Singletary was shifty but his 40 times could be measured on a sundial. Moss had the illusion of power but couldn’t hit a hole. 

[Eastport bills]

If Elam emerges as a shut down corner, look for sack #s to explode for our edge rushers and if Sean is truly going to be more aggressive, blitzers like Milano and Williams. These great cover corners force QBs to to look for 2nd and 3rd options. Shakir was very good as a rookie and he could cement his role as a #3 receiver. With this receiving corp, and the threat of Josh taking off requiring defenders to cover breakouts, this offense will be hard to defend. If Cook. Harris and co. can establish any type of running game look for massive point production.

[Nextmanup]

Are these improved predictions based on anything other than being a fan and wanting/hoping that they have big seasons?

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

On 6/26/2023 at 11:05 AM, Royale with Cheese said:

I have no idea what to expect for Elam.

 

I do expect Cook to become lethal.  I think he explodes this year.

Cook, Harris & Kincaid should all have a very good year.  Elam should see more man press opportunities as long as his snaps aren't reduced like last year.

[Dr.Sack]

AP1 for one. AP2 the other. Beane GM of year. 
Kincaid AP2. Allen SB MVP. 

[Patrick Duffy]

15 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Are these improved predictions based on anything other than being a fan and wanting/hoping that they have big seasons?

 

 

 

Probably more based on their improved play last quarter or so of the season.  And yeah there's hoping for sure

[3rdand12]

22 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Have we had, in last few years real speed or real power?  I dont think we had.  Moss and Singletary were almost or close to the same player.

And then we brought in Hines, and did not use him ?

But as far as power back and speed , we now have both ! Pretty stoked about the Offense this season

 Agree on the bolded for sure.

[3rdand12]

18 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Are these improved predictions based on anything other than being a fan and wanting/hoping that they have big seasons?

 

 

well , that's a fair take. And sometimes that is all we have. I am okay with that too !
But looks to me the offense will have a wider range of options that will allow a bigger playbook to pull from week to week.

 Speed  and or power. Options aplenty and very good depth.

Dont need rockstars to win week in week out. Need good play calling , adjustments and then execution.

 There will be enough players of varying skills to win. And thinking/hoping enough depth to carry the season 

Go Bills