TSW Mock Draft 3.0 Poll - Who should the Bills take at #27

[Virgil]

Who should the Bills take at #27?

 

Due to there being positions of need, I did include some players with a second round grade.  Offensive line and MLB have zero remaining players with a 2nd round grade.

Edited April 26, 2023 by Virgil

[bearcat]

Oliver and 27 for Hopkins? Not Hopkins and 34?

[Yantha]

Was tempted with Nolan Smith but just can't go Edge here....

3 minutes ago, bearcat said:

Oliver and 27 for Hopkins? Not Hopkins and 34?

I think that the Hopkins idea is nice, albeit unlikely....

[Kirby Jackson]

It will definitely be Flowers if this situation arises. There’s maybe a 10% chance Flowers gets to 27. 

[ROCBillsBeliever]

I had to go with Flowers, although Van Ness dropping to 27 had my trigger finger itching, just in terms of value. I feel like he's going to be a terror, in the league. 

[DrDawkinstein]

JOHN MICHAEL SCHMITZ

 

or the trade back with Arizona for DHOP, and can probably pick up JMS/Tippman/Wypler at 34.

 

Bills fans are nuts if they are voting Flowers. Another too-small Parrish/McKenzie.

[HappyDays]

8 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It will definitely be Flowers if this situation arises. There’s maybe a 10% chance Flowers gets to 27. 

 

I don't know, Beane seems to value arm length. I know they drafted Shakir last year but that was a day three pick. Not sure he'd spend a 1st round pick on a player with such a severe physical limitation.

[ExWNYer]

I think if the board falls that way the Bills will choose Flowers but that would not be my choice. I hate the idea of going defense in the 1st Round but would like Nolan Smith or Lukas Van Ness to add as a very good Edge option to pair with Von Miller. Their talent is worth that pick, IMO. Van Ness is versatile and can play inside or out. Ultimately, I chose trade back from #27 to #34 with Arizona for Hopkins (assuming they can make the money work). This gives Beane another receiving threat for Josh with the ammo and flexibility to attack LB and DL in the 2nd Round. The 'Trade Back' option was too vague for me. What are they getting in return?

[JohnBonhamRocks]

3 hours ago, bearcat said:

Oliver and 27 for Hopkins? Not Hopkins and 34?

Yeah that trade makes no sense especially when you see it next to the other trade option. Is there a salary retention aspect to either we should know about?

 

Edit: Also, I love Flowers as a cost-controlled prospect, but that second trade is too good to pass up and 34 seems a better spot for overall value. 
 

Edit edit: Switched vote to Flowers after trade clarification. Think Cole Beasley+ combined with John Brown+. Dude can work the middle and stretch the field. 

Edited April 26, 2023 by JohnBonhamRocks

[HappyDays]

7 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

JOHN MICHAEL SCHMITZ

 

To me this would be a very uninspiring 1st round pick. A 24 year old rookie who has only ever played center. I would rather let Bates take over at center in 2024 than reach for one in the 1st round. Schmitz is a player I would be fine with at pick 59.

[DrDawkinstein]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

To me this would be a very uninspiring 1st round pick. A 24 year old rookie who has only ever played center. I would rather let Bates take over at center in 2024 than reach for one in the 1st round. Schmitz is a player I would be fine with at pick 59.

 

I'm fine with uninspriring when it means getting a lynchpin for our OL for the rest of Josh's career. Agreed it's a bit of a reach, but in this draft, anyone taken at 27 is going to be 2nd round talent.

 

Should have been Creed Humphrey. Should have been Tyler Linderbaum.

 

Taking IOL is never exciting, but it sure is satisfying.

 

I did end up voting for the trade back with DHOP. We could probably get JMS at 34 as well. So I'd be fine with it.

 

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by DrDawkinstein

[RyanC883]

31 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It will definitely be Flowers if this situation arises. There’s maybe a 10% chance Flowers gets to 27. 

 

I was between Flowers and the 27/34 swap with getting Hopkins.  Went with Hopkins because he has the production history and will create a situation where you cannot double him and Diggs. 

 

Use 34 for IOL and get Tank Dell, trade back into 2nd if needed.  I’d be fine coming out of the draft with 3 players who can make an impact next year. 

[YattaOkasan]

From Joe Marino's chart last night its a late third for DHop.  Also am wondering abit about the how of that deal.  would need to agree to a restructure during the draft or cardinals would have to eat cap.  We can't just take him on our roster without some financials working through right?  seems tough to do while on the clock.  I put nolan smith but would love DHop too.

[NeverOutNick]

6 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

From Joe Marino's chart last night its a late third for DHop.  Also am wondering abit about the how of that deal.  would need to agree to a restructure during the draft or cardinals would have to eat cap.  We can't just take him on our roster without some financials working through right?  seems tough to do while on the clock.  I put nolan smith but would love DHop too.

this is the inside gossip of what the Cardinals actually offered:

 

“You don’t have to do it this second if you want to see who is coming up on the board for the bills but the Cardinals are willing to offer you DeAndre Hopkins the number 34 pick in the 2023 NFL draft and we will eat $8 million of his $19 million contract this year by giving him a signing bonus before we trade him. This is the same amount it would cost us to release him outright so we’re ok doing it for:

 

 

Your 2023 #27 pick in this draft and Ed Oliver”

 

 

But after seeing flowers on the board and having him under contract for five cheap years is very tempting, even though I love DeAndre Hopkins

Edited April 26, 2023 by NeverOutNick
Zay

[The Jokeman]

Realistically I'd trade back, now if I could trade back to 34 and get DHop that's like fantasy type stuff.

[hellofellowbillsfans]

Dude...if Nolan Smith is there at 27 you make that pick. Every single time. 

[DrDawkinstein]

I would NOT do 27 and Oliver for DHOP. We need to get that #34 pick back. Can't lose 2 young players for a high priced 1-2 year rental.

[YattaOkasan]

5 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

this is the inside gossip of what the Cardinals actually offered:

 

“You don’t have to do it this second if you want to see who is coming up on the board for the bills but the Cardinals are willing to offer you DeAndre Hopkins the number 34 pick in the 2023 NFL draft and we will eat $8 million of his $19 million contract this year by giving him a signing bonus before we trade him. This is the same about it would cost us to release him outright so we’re ok doing it for:

 

 

Your 2023 #27 pick in this draft and Ed Oliver”

Thanks.  I do think this is how it gets done.  A simple restructure by the cardinals to eat money.  Also appreciate you indicating conversations beforehand because that also makes it easier to get done during the draft.  Based of that I guess it would be the Bills wanting to see who is there at 27 (OMG Im still taking Nolan Smith and would be happy Beane didnt take the trade yet).  

3 minutes ago, BillsFanInRaleigh said:

Dude...if Nolan Smith is there at 27 you make that pick. Every single time. 

Yeah I think you have to.  Board seems preoccupied with idea of needing another weapon versus some pretty glaring concerns at edge.

[HappyDays]

27 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Agreed it's a bit of a reach, but in this draft, anyone taken at 27 is going to be 2nd round talent.

 

Should have been Creed Humphrey. Should have been Tyler Linderbaum.

 

Then take the 2nd round talent at a game changing position. There are several edge rushers still on the board. Jalin Hyatt is available even though he isn't listed as an option. The drop off from one of those edge rushers or WRs to the same position group at pick 59 is going to be a lot more than the drop off from Schmitz to one of the centers available at pick 59.

 

Humphrey was a bottom 2nd round pick. Are you saying we should have taken him in the 1st over Rousseau? No way I would make that trade even today. Linderbaum is a solid player, on a team that is massively deficient at skill positions and has needs all along the DL.

 

There's also the unwritten assumption that Schmitz will become a good player. That isn't necessarily true.

 

Again I'm fine with the player if he's drafted at the appropriate range of his value. As it is I'm not a fan of 24 year old rookies, and for some reason there's a bunch of them in the draft this year. A 24 year old at a less valuable position is a really poor use of a 1st round pick IMO.

[MrEpsYtown]

Smith or Van Ness for me. I went Van Ness just because fit. Both are pretty raw but too good to pass up here imo. 

[YattaOkasan]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Then take the 2nd round talent at a game changing position. There are several edge rushers still on the board. Jalin Hyatt is available even though he isn't listed as an option. The drop off from one of those edge rushers or WRs to the same position group at pick 59 is going to be a lot more than the drop off from Schmitz to one of the centers available at pick 59.

 

Humphrey was a bottom 2nd round pick. Are you saying we should have taken him in the 1st over Rousseau? No way I would make that trade even today. Linderbaum is a solid player, on a team that is massively deficient at skill positions and has needs all along the DL.

 

There's also the unwritten assumption that Schmitz will become a good player. That isn't necessarily true.

 

Again I'm fine with the player if he's drafted at the appropriate range of his value. As it is I'm not a fan of 24 year old rookies, and for some reason there's a bunch of them in the draft this year. A 24 year old at a less valuable position is a really poor use of a 1st round pick IMO.

Is the reason for the number of 24 year olds this draft because of the extra year during covid?

[Dr. Who]

12 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Smith or Van Ness for me. I went Van Ness just because fit. Both are pretty raw but too good to pass up here imo. 

I'd be really surprised if either is available at 27. I don't expect Zay Flowers to be there, either. So if the second trade option is up against the field minus those players, it's an easy choice for me. In this scenario, it's perplexing. Apparently we have till eight to make a selection, so I'm going to ponder it and see what more folks think. 

[Virgil]

Sorry everyone, there was confusion in the trade details.  The poll is updated

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't know, Beane seems to value arm length. I know they drafted Shakir last year but that was a day three pick. Not sure he'd spend a 1st round pick on a player with such a severe physical limitation.

I’d be REALLY surprised if the board fell like this and they passed on Flowers. 

[Dr. Who]

6 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’d be REALLY surprised if the board fell like this and they passed on Flowers. 

Even with the midget arms, he's probably too good to pass up and you know they are targeting WR. I think it needs to be investment on offense if one is looking at comparable value, though Nolan Smith and Van Ness are tempting.

Edited April 26, 2023 by Dr. Who

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

JOHN MICHAEL SCHMITZ

 

or the trade back with Arizona for DHOP, and can probably pick up JMS/Tippman/Wypler at 34.

 

Bills fans are nuts if they are voting Flowers. Another to-small Parrish/McKenzie.

Just like Bills fans were nuts for wanting to draft the midget Von Miller over Marcel Dareus? 🤣 

 

I’d prefer a bigger WR too but sometimes things don’t work out that way.  He’s a more physical presence when compared to Parrish and McKenzie.  I don’t view them in the same light.  He’s a better all around WR.

 

time will tell.  

[Yantha]

Changed my vote to Trade Back.....

[DrDawkinstein]

49 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Then take the 2nd round talent at a game changing position. There are several edge rushers still on the board. Jalin Hyatt is available even though he isn't listed as an option. The drop off from one of those edge rushers or WRs to the same position group at pick 59 is going to be a lot more than the drop off from Schmitz to one of the centers available at pick 59.

 

Humphrey was a bottom 2nd round pick. Are you saying we should have taken him in the 1st over Rousseau? No way I would make that trade even today. Linderbaum is a solid player, on a team that is massively deficient at skill positions and has needs all along the DL.

 

There's also the unwritten assumption that Schmitz will become a good player. That isn't necessarily true.

 

Again I'm fine with the player if he's drafted at the appropriate range of his value. As it is I'm not a fan of 24 year old rookies, and for some reason there's a bunch of them in the draft this year. A 24 year old at a less valuable position is a really poor use of a 1st round pick IMO.

 

No, Humphrey over Basham. The "game changing position" of another DE.

 

Given the performance and injury history of our OL, I'd say drafting a starting Center IS a game-changing position. Maybe JMS could have managed to get the snap to Josh in the Vikings game?

 

I've already said I'm all good with trading back and getting the Center then. My current vote is to Trade Back. But I think a trade back is unlikely in reality.

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by DrDawkinstein

[ExWNYer]

1 hour ago, ExWNYer said:

I think if the board falls that way the Bills will choose Flowers but that would not be my choice. I hate the idea of going defense in the 1st Round but would like Nolan Smith or Lukas Van Ness to add as a very good Edge option to pair with Von Miller. Their talent is worth that pick, IMO. Van Ness is versatile and can play inside or out. Ultimately, I chose trade back from #27 to #34 with Arizona for Hopkins (assuming they can make the money work). This gives Beane another receiving threat for Josh with the ammo and flexibility to attack LB and DL in the 2nd Round. The 'Trade Back' option was too vague for me. What are they getting in return?

 

Looks like it's coming down to either Flowers or trade back. You can't fight City Hall; therefore I'm changing my vote to Flowers. 1) Because I think that's actually the move the Bills would make. 2) Given those two options, I'd rather take the weapon at a positional need rather than taking the unknown of a trade back.

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, ExWNYer said:

 

Looks like it's coming down to either Flowers or trade back. You can't fight City Hall; therefore I'm changing my vote to Flowers. 1) Because I think that's actually the move the Bills would make. 2) Given those two options, I'd rather take the weapon at a positional need rather than taking the unknown of a trade back.

But part of that unknown is not, it's Hopkins. My concern is that if Oliver is part of the trade, maybe they feel compelled to take DT at 34. If you give me Josh Downs and Hopkins, I prefer that to Zay Flowers, but it's true you don't know who the pick at 34 would be. I'm actually okay with either option.

Edited April 26, 2023 by Dr. Who

[ExWNYer]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

But part of that unknown is not, it's Hopkins. My concern is that if Oliver is part of the trade, maybe they feel compelled to take DT at 34. If you give me Josh Downs and Hopkins, I prefer that to Zay Jones, but it's true you don't know who the pick at 34 would be. I'm actually okay with either option.

 

No, that option is lagging far behind with 6. The other two options I referenced are at 13 & 12. It's currently a two horse race not three.

[Dr. Who]

Just now, ExWNYer said:

 

No, that option is lagging far behind with 6. The other two options I referenced are at 13 & 12. It's currently a two horse race not three.

Ah, well, my fault for assuming. I did not check the numbers. In that case, it's easily Zay Flowers.

[DrDawkinstein]

24 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Just like Bills fans were nuts for wanting to draft the midget Von Miller over Marcel Dareus? 🤣 

 

I’d prefer a bigger WR too but sometimes things don’t work out that way.  He’s a more physical presence when compared to Parrish and McKenzie.  I don’t view them in the same light.  He’s a better all around WR.

 

time will tell.  

 

I dont remember that far back. 

 

I DO remember someone else getting pissed during the 1.0 Mock Draft that we again neglected to draft OL...

[Prospector]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Smith or Van Ness for me. I went Van Ness just because fit. Both are pretty raw but too good to pass up here imo. 

Even though it would be like spinning tires, I don't see how we can pass on Van Ness or Nolan Smith if they are there. 

[Lothar]

Van Ness should be a top 15 pick. I think other than JSN, I'm not sure I go WR in the first (even though I like Addison and Flowers). I'd pick Van Ness if this unlikely situation came up. 

Edited April 26, 2023 by Lothar

[frostbitmic]

I went with the trade option though that seems unlikely. I don't think Oliver will get a 2nd contract with the Bills and I'd have to have at least two or three years out of Hopkins which just makes this seem unlikely.

 

When the trade doesn't go down I'd probably go with Flowers, short arms aren't as big of a detriment when you're running the slot and catching a bullet from Allen in the guts.

 

Van Ness sitting there would be a big temptation and make me take most of my allotted time to make the pick. Van Ness will be a boom player, Flowers will be boom or bust.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, YattaOkasan said:

Is the reason for the number of 24 year olds this draft because of the extra year during covid?

 

Yes. 

[ExWNYer]

4 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

I went with the trade option though that seems unlikely. I don't think Oliver will get a 2nd contract with the Bills and I'd have to have at least two or three years out of Hopkins which just makes this seem unlikely.

 

When the trade doesn't go down I'd probably go with Flowers, short arms aren't as big of a detriment when you're running the slot and catching a bullet from Allen in the guts.

 

Van Ness sitting there would be a big temptation and make me take most of my allotted time to make the pick. Van Ness will be a boom player, Flowers will be boom or bust.

 

I agree with this. Van Ness was my preference but he just wasn't getting the needed traction here. The Hopkins option has gained steam and it's now a three horse race between that and 'Trade Back' with Zay Flowers still solidly in the lead. Flowers lack of size does scare me.

[NewEra]

24 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I dont remember that far back. 

 

I DO remember someone else getting pissed during the 1.0 Mock Draft that we again neglected to draft OL...

 

I forget 1.0.  Didn’t we take Addison?  I’m a huge fan of Addison.  I wasn’t a fan of Benton in rd 2, but I’ve come around to that.

 

here’s my thing- Spencer Brown. I fear him more than I fear Mahomes to Kelce on 3rd down.  
 

I don’t feel Schmitz would even play on this team in 2023.  While I want to focus on O in this draft, I wouldn’t be happy with him in rd 1.   I’d rather draft Tippman over Schmitz.   
 

And while I’m all about drafting O….. In this particular draft…. Drafting Schmitz over Van Ness and Nolan Smith would be criminal.

[DrDawkinstein]

12 minutes ago, NewEra said:

 

I forget 1.0.  Didn’t we take Addison?  I’m a huge fan of Addison.  I wasn’t a fan of Benton in rd 2, but I’ve come around to that.

 

here’s my thing- Spencer Brown. I fear him more than I fear Mahomes to Kelce on 3rd down.  
 

I don’t feel Schmitz would even play on this team in 2023.  While I want to focus on O in this draft, I wouldn’t be happy with him in rd 1.   I’d rather draft Tippman over Schmitz.   
 

And while I’m all about drafting O….. In this particular draft…. Drafting Schmitz over Van Ness and Nolan Smith would be criminal.

 

I dont remember which mock it was, I just know I was pissed we skipped IOL, and then in the next one I saw you making the same complaints. Great minds, and all...

 

I'm not so much in love with JMS specifically, as much as I am pressing to address a critical need that we have been ignoring the last 3 years. We are one head-slap away from Morse retiring mid-game.  He will miss time again this year. At this point of his career, it's pretty much a guarantee. We have to have our next Center ready, and I dont want to sabotage Josh even further by making him deal with jourenyman Centers for 3 seasons until we figure it out.

 

Tippman works for me, or even Luke Wypler who some have as the #1 Center (although he is much smaller than we usually like).

 

Not sold on Van Ness, at all. IMO, he is another Epenesa maybe worthy of a mid-late 2nd round pick. But that is this draft. Loaded with "2nd round" talent.

 

Nolan Smith, maybe. But he looks a little small to deal with NFL Tackles...