TSW Mock Draft 3.0 Poll - Who should the Bills take at #27

[gonzo1105]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Meh. I'm not high on him for a 4-3 team. 

 

Def a raw player and yes better in a 3-4. Just think with those options that were presented he was the best option. He's the only guy that wasn't the trade down scenario or Hopkins scenario that I have a first round grade on. I'm not overly as high on Van Ness as a lot of people. I think he will struggle to get to the passer in the NFL. 

[DrDawkinstein]

36 minutes ago, NewEra said:

epenesa and Van Ness?  Ehhhhhh.  I don’t see that at all.  Van Ness is an athletic physical specimen.  Epenesa was always a sloth.  

 

 

Same reel. Like right down to the blocked punts.

 

[Big Blitz]

I’m concerned with being able to move the ball on the ground against the Jets and Dolphins.

 

OT - if they don’t they clearly are banking on Spencer Brown.

 

 

If Hopkins trade and they’re set at OT…

 

at pick 34:  Downs, Hyatt, or Campbell 

 

Flowers - no.  Nope. 

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

 

My opinion on MLB is essentially this...

 

Either they are truly comfortable with the incumbents present and maybe draft late round competition, or the they are hiding their interest in Jack Campbell and taking him at 27. I think those are the two possible outcomes. If he is their guy, they aren't going to wait to see if he falls to round 2 or whatever. 

I think that's plausible. As I am not as high on Campbell as you and many others here are and I want to employ the early picks at different positions, I hope they are playing it straight when they say they are comfortable with the incumbents.

[mrags]

3 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

 

My opinion on MLB is essentially this...

 

Either they are truly comfortable with the incumbents present and maybe draft late round competition, or the they are hiding their interest in Jack Campbell and taking him at 27. I think those are the two possible outcomes. If he is their guy, they aren't going to wait to see if he falls to round 2 or whatever. 

I could see them moving back from 27 to early 30s and targeting him there. 
 

personally I don’t want Campbell. Not a huge fan of him. But if he’s what they want and think he will be a good player then I guess I’ll back the decision. I personally don’t think he’ll be that good though. He’ll be a mix between Edmunds and Poz imo 

[DrDawkinstein]

The reality of it is, we've heard from multiple sources that there are only ~15 players with 1st round grades in this draft. That's pretty agreed upon across the board.

 

Picking at 27, no matter WHO we draft, will be a reach and a pick that lots of folks will be able to easily find fault with.

 

And if there is such low talent, it will guarantee that no one wants to move up so we can trade back.

 

We just need to prepare ourselves for a lackluster 1st round pick.

 

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by DrDawkinstein

[MrEpsYtown]

6 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

Same reel. Like right down to the blocked punts.

 

 

I definitely think they have similarities in play style and what they were asked to do at Iowa. The difference is the athletic qualities and projection at the next level. It's not even close there. 

 

. 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I definitely think they have similarities in play style and what they were asked to do at Iowa. The difference is the athletic qualities and projection at the next level. It's not even close there. 

 

. 

 

 

If Van Ness was such a step up, he wouldnt be available at 27. Or even past 15.

 

 

[mrags]

5 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

The reality of it is, we've heard from multiple sources that there are only ~15 players with 1st round grades in this draft. That's pretty agreed upon across the board.

 

Picking at 27, no matter WHO we draft, will be a reach and a pick that lots of folks will be able to easily find fault with.

 

And if there is such low talent, it will guarantee that no one wants to move up so we can trade back.

 

We just need to prepare ourselves for a lackluster 1st round pick.

 

 

I think this right here is exactly why they should trade the 27 and 3rd round pick to Arizona for DHop and their 2nd and 4th round picks. Because the talent level isn’t there early in the draft. Get a sure thing with DHop and you don’t overpay/draft someone in the 1st that doesn’t have the first round talent. 
 

downside to that is, and it’s exactly why I think of this trade happens it happens on draft day. Is every team has different values on certain players.  Maybe the Bills would be ok making the trade but only if Xxx player is already gone. There’s a good chance that Az will make the trade anyway because they seem to want to dump DHop. So get something for him while you can. Or have to cut him and eat $8m for nothing. 

[NewEra]

20 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

Same reel. Like right down to the blocked punts.

 

They are not

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, mrags said:

I think this right here is exactly why they should trade the 27 and 3rd round pick to Arizona for DHop and their 2nd and 4th round picks. Because the talent level isn’t there early in the draft. Get a sure thing with DHop and you don’t overpay/draft someone in the 1st that doesn’t have the first round talent. 
 

downside to that is, and it’s exactly why I think of this trade happens it happens on draft day. Is every team has different values on certain players.  Maybe the Bills would be ok making the trade but only if Xxx player is already gone. There’s a good chance that Az will make the trade anyway because they seem to want to dump DHop. So get something for him while you can. Or have to cut him and eat $8m for nothing. 

 

The other downside of that trade is by trading out of the 1st round, we lose the 5th year option on whoever we were going to draft. Could make a major difference in cap in a few years, and DHOP will likely be retired then.

[RyanC883]

take Hopkins, get IOL and DT/Edge in 2nd.  

[Dr. Who]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

The other downside of that trade is by trading out of the 1st round, we lose the 5th year option on whoever we were going to draft. Could make a major difference in cap in a few years, and DHOP will likely be retired then.

No one will care if DHop is a key ingredient in winning a SB. I'm guessing you are skeptical he can be that kind of difference maker.

[NewEra]

11 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

If Van Ness was such a step up, he wouldnt be available at 27. Or even past 15.

 

 

If he was an an epenesa clone, he wouldn’t be projected in the top 15 by anyone. 

1 minute ago, RyanC883 said:

take Hopkins, get IOL and DT/Edge in 2nd.  

Why interior OL?  I don’t understand. We are trotting Spencer Brown out there to protect the greatest player in t franchise history.  It makes zero sense.

 

our IOL as presently constructed is much better off that our OT situation imo.  

[GunnerBill]

21 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

Def a raw player and yes better in a 3-4. Just think with those options that were presented he was the best option. He's the only guy that wasn't the trade down scenario or Hopkins scenario that I have a first round grade on. I'm not overly as high on Van Ness as a lot of people. I think he will struggle to get to the passer in the NFL. 

 

Yea I see Van Ness more as a base end too, going to play the run well, play with some hustle, pick up 4 or so coverage / clean up sacks a year. Good player not sure about the ceiling. But I actually am a lot lower on Smith that the consensus. I see the physical potential but I don't like his tape. I'm not sure he understands what he is doing. If I was a 3-4 team I might take a punt just on the speed and explosiveness and hope I can teach him the rest. But if the speed and explosiveness was only good enough for 3 sacks a year in college on a dominant defense then unless the technique improves a lot I don't know how it is good enough for lots of sacks in the pros. I kinda see him a bit like Oweh who the Ravens took a couple of years ago. I hear Baltimore really like Smith and that makes sense to me too. 

[DrDawkinstein]

5 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

No one will care if DHop is a key ingredient in winning a SB. I'm guessing you are skeptical he can be that kind of difference maker.

 

True, good point. I dunno. Most years prior I've been saying he is by far the #1 WR in the league. He's fallen off a little as new blood comes in, but he could definitely help get us to the promise land.

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

True, good point. I dunno. Most years prior I've been saying he is by far the #1 WR in the league. He's fallen off a little as new blood comes in, but he could definitely help get us to the promise land.

I don't think he's a sure thing. There is some risk, but he's a legitimate difference maker on offense that adds to Diggs as someone the D can't ignore. So all in all, I'm for gambling he has a few solid years left in him.

[MrEpsYtown]

21 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

If Van Ness was such a step up, he wouldnt be available at 27. Or even past 15.

 

 

 

Dan Campbell is just lying here to sound rugged and old school. It is a combination of both what they have done on film and athletic upside and measurables. It's a projection and that's why Tommie Frazier was such a dominant college player who could not sniff the league. 

 

Also I think it is highly unlikely he is available this late. 

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Dan Campbell is just lying here to sound rugged and old school. It is a combination of both what they have done on film and athletic upside and measurables. It's a projection and that's why Tommie Frazier was such a dominant college player who could not sniff the league. 

 

Right. And since most of this discussion, regarding a message board's choice for the Bills in the 3rd version mock drafts, is just for ***** and giggles, I am obviously being a bit cheeky on purpose.

[BeavercreekBillsFan]

31 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

The reality of it is, we've heard from multiple sources that there are only ~15 players with 1st round grades in this draft. That's pretty agreed upon across the board.

 

Picking at 27, no matter WHO we draft, will be a reach and a pick that lots of folks will be able to easily find fault with.

 

And if there is such low talent, it will guarantee that no one wants to move up so we can trade back.

 

We just need to prepare ourselves for a lackluster 1st round pick.

 

 

 I’m already 110% prepared for them to waste a pick on Bryan Bresee. I just feel it coming 

[RyanC883]

16 minutes ago, NewEra said:

If he was an an epenesa clone, he wouldn’t be projected in the top 15 by anyone. 

Why interior OL?  I don’t understand. We are trotting Spencer Brown out there to protect the greatest player in t franchise history.  It makes zero sense.

 

our IOL as presently constructed is much better off that our OT situation imo.  

 

I think the IOL will offer better value than an OT in round 2, but I agree the RT position would be a more valuable upgrade.  Ideally Bergeron will be available, if not, Avila would be ideal as he can play tackle in a pinch (played RT his freshman year quite a bit).   

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, RyanC883 said:

 

I think the IOL will offer better value than an OT in round 2, but I agree the RT position would be a more valuable upgrade.  Ideally Bergeron will be available, if not, Avila would be ideal as he can play tackle in a pinch (played RT his freshman year quite a bit).   

Those are my favorite round two targets for OL. I think Bergeron potentially has that same versatility.

[MrEpsYtown]

8 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Right. And since most of this discussion, regarding a message board's choice for the Bills in the 3rd version mock drafts, is just for ***** and giggles, I am obviously being a bit cheeky on purpose.

 

Playing 3D Chess while I'm playing checkers! 

[mrags]

25 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

The other downside of that trade is by trading out of the 1st round, we lose the 5th year option on whoever we were going to draft. Could make a major difference in cap in a few years, and DHOP will likely be retired then.

Yeah. That’s all part of waiting until draft day imo. If there’s someone there they believe is worthy of that, they don’t make the DHop trade. 

[ExWNYer]

2 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Playing 3D Chess while I'm playing checkers! 

 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

2 minutes ago, ExWNYer said:

 

 

 

Man I crush it on Candyland. I am so good I have to find ways to let my 5 year old beat me. 

[JohnBonhamRocks]

I say take Flowers at 27 and trade a combination of mid round picks and/or Oliver for Hopkins.

[Virgil]

While I doubt it will happen, I like the setup in this draft.  
 

You get Hopkins, take MLB at #34, and there’s solid DT depth in round 3.  
 

I don’t like not addressing OT, but that’s still a solid draft for us 

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

I say take Flowers at 27 and trade a combination of mid round picks and/or Oliver for Hopkins.

I like that, too. Although Oliver has underperformed his draft status, I still think he brings value to the team, so I'd rather retain him and try a combo of mid-rounders (likely to include a 2024 pick), unless shedding his salary is necessary to fit Hopkins under the cap.

[Visent]

1 minute ago, Virgil said:

While I doubt it will happen, I like the setup in this draft.  
 

You get Hopkins, take MLB at #34, and there’s solid DT depth in round 3.  
 

I don’t like not addressing OT, but that’s still a solid draft for us 

 

How much will Dhop add to our cap and how much will it decrease with Olivers departure?

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, mrags said:

I agree. I also think Oliver added to the mix is a bit over what we’d need to get it done. I think Oliver and a 2nd or 3rd maybe trading for Hopkins and a 3rd or 4th. 
 

I think it’s more likely a trade back with Arizona and add in a 5th or later would do it. Maybe make it a 2024 pick that’s conditional 

 

Yeah, I do think Buffalo could still legitimately trade for Hopkins, but I also feel Beane is waiting to see if he will have an opportunity to get Addison or JSN first in the draft (or whatever WR's they feel good about in that first round).

 

And I agree, swapping picks and sending Oliver almost certainly makes no sense for AZ, and prob not a lot of sense for Buffalo right now.  

• The only value going to AZ is Oliver and a small move up in the draft, no additional draft picks are being added.  
  • That means AZ both has to value Oliver as a long term piece and/or really want someone at 27.  
  • We are sitting here looking at 27 as a place to trade down from, so how much value does this move up really have to AZ?  There would need to be someone they legitimately covet and feel that his value is noticeably higher than anyone they would get at 34.  We are only talking 9 spaces, and all the players going in these ranges likely have round 2 grades already given this is a weak top end draft.  
  • Oliver - If the value isn't there with the pick swap, then Oliver would need to be a piece they valued and want to extend and keep around.  Given his inconsistency, not sure AZ is looking at Oliver that way.
    • Beane would also be making an all in type move to get Hopkins given he has short term value with his age, so would he really want to weaken our DL by creating another hole he has to fill in a year we are pushing for a SB?  Especially given they type of offenses we face this year both in our division and outside our division (AFC West and NFC East along with Cincinnati).  This is a defense that already has a big hole to fill with Edmunds gone.  

So for me, I do think a trade is still possible, however I think this idea of a pick swap and sending Oliver is not realistic, and that is coming from me who proposed this exact trade months ago (mainly to make the cap stuff work).  

 

I think if the Bills miss out on whatever WR's they were targeting in the first, a Hopkins trade might become more realistic for them.  But I think that trade is going to need to include a draft pick(s) to AZ and I no longer think moving Oliver is going to be how Beane approaches the handling the cap stuff.  There are a number of other ways  to make the money work, especially since Hopkins has made it clear he is willing to work with the new team on his contract to facilitate the trade.

 

My guess...sending AZ a 3rd next year that could conditionally become a 2nd.  Or sending our 3rd this year, but if I was AZ, I would rather take the potentially better draft asset in a draft next year that is expected to be noticeably better draft than this year.  And if the Bills did get a 3rd comp pick next year, that offsets the sting of trading our 3rd (that could become a 2nd) next year quite a bit too.  

 

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, Virgil said:

While I doubt it will happen, I like the setup in this draft.  
 

You get Hopkins, take MLB at #34, and there’s solid DT depth in round 3.  
 

I don’t like not addressing OT, but that’s still a solid draft for us 

You've got 34, 59, and 91 to address needs, no? Still wouldn't use an early pick on MLB.

2 minutes ago, Visent said:

 

How much will Dhop add to our cap and how much will it decrease with Olivers departure?

Part of that is dependent on how much if any salary AZ is willing to eat as part of the trade.

Edited April 26, 2023 by Dr. Who

[Visent]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

You've got 34, 59, and 91 to address needs, no? Still wouldn't use an early pick on MLB.

Part of that is how much if any salary AZ is willing to eat as part of the trade.

 

Yes but it says that Cardinals will take a big chunk of the contract money.

[mrags]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yeah, I do think Buffalo could still legitimately trade for Hopkins, but I also feel Beane is waiting to see if he will have an opportunity to get Addison or JSN first in the draft (or whatever WR's they feel good about in that first round).

 

And I agree, swapping picks and sending Oliver almost certainly makes no sense for AZ, and prob not a lot of sense for Buffalo right now.  

• The only value going to AZ is Oliver and a small move up in the draft, no additional draft picks are being added.  
  • That means AZ both has to value Oliver as a long term piece and/or really want someone at 27.  
  • We are sitting here looking at 27 as a place to trade down from, so how much value does this move up really have to AZ?  There would need to be someone they legitimately covet and feel that his value is noticeably higher than anyone they would get at 34.  We are only talking 9 spaces, and all the players going in these ranges likely have round 2 grades already given this is a weak top end draft.  
  • Oliver - If the value isn't there with the pick swap, then Oliver would need to be a piece they valued and want to extend and keep around.  Given his inconsistency, not sure AZ is looking at Oliver that way.
    • Beane would also be making an all in type move to get Hopkins given he has short term value with his age, so would he really want to weaken our DL by creating another hole he has to fill in a year we are pushing for a SB?  Especially given they type of offenses we face this year both in our division and outside our division (AFC West and NFC East along with Cincinnati).  This is a defense that already has a big hole to fill with Edmunds gone.  

So for me, I do think a trade is still possible, however I think this idea of a pick swap and sending Oliver is not realistic, and that is coming from me who proposed this exact trade months ago (mainly to make the cap stuff work).  

 

I think if the Bills miss out on whatever WR's they were targeting in the first, a Hopkins trade might become more realistic for them.  But I think that trade is going to need to include a draft pick(s) to AZ and I no longer think moving Oliver is going to be how Beane approaches the handling the cap stuff.  There are a number of other ways  to make the money work, especially since Hopkins has made it clear he is willing to work with the new team on his contract to facilitate the trade.

 

My guess...sending AZ a 3rd next year that could conditionally become a 2nd.  Or sending our 3rd this year, but if I was AZ, I would rather take the potentially better draft asset in a draft next year that is expected to be noticeably better draft than this year.  And if the Bills did get a 3rd comp pick next year, that offsets the sting of trading our 3rd (that could become a 2nd) next year quite a bit too.  

 

 

I think the key to Az doing the deal even though they may not have first round grades in these guys, is the option for a 5th year option on someone. And because they are preparing to cut him for nothing and spend $8m to do it. 

5 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

You've got 34, 59, and 91 to address needs, no? Still wouldn't use an early pick on MLB.

Sewell at 91 or after please. 

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, mrags said:

I think the key to Az doing the deal even though they may not have first round grades in these guys, is the option for a 5th year option on someone. And because they are preparing to cut him for nothing and spend $8m to do it. 

Sewell at 91 or after please. 

I might take Sewell at 130. He looks to me more like an old school thumper with very little coverage skills, so I'm dubious about his fit.

[mrags]

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

I might take Sewell at 130. He looks to me more like an old school thumper with very little coverage skills, so I'm dubious about his fit.

We have really good Safeties, and corners, an elite Nickle corner, and an extremely good OLB in Milano. I’ll take the chances with Sewell being a thumper and hopefully be able to stop the run again

[Dr. Who]

21 minutes ago, Visent said:

 

Yes but it says that Cardinals will take a big chunk of the contract money.

That is great if true. All I was trying to say is you can't know how much DHop would add to the cap until you know how much salary AZ is retaining, though perhaps it's more complicated than that.

[Yantha]

Just want to ask. Is that Hopkins trade a possibility actually?

[DrDawkinstein]

30 minutes ago, Visent said:

 

How much will Dhop add to our cap and how much will it decrease with Olivers departure?

 

Ed is set to cost us $10M this year.

 

DHOP's current contract would hit us for $19.5M. So at face value, a $9.5M add.

 

But folks assume we could get Arizona to eat some of that. Either all $9.5M, or some portion. But if not, its a $9.5M additional cost to us.

 

 

4 minutes ago, Yantha said:

Just want to ask. Is that Hopkins trade a possibility actually?

 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, RyanC883 said:

 

I think the IOL will offer better value than an OT in round 2, but I agree the RT position would be a more valuable upgrade.  Ideally Bergeron will be available, if not, Avila would be ideal as he can play tackle in a pinch (played RT his freshman year quite a bit).   

Like who?  Looking at this draft, I see more OTs that could fall to 59 than IOL.  I’ll be shocked if Avila, Schmitz or Tippman fall to 59…. But it’s def possible.  The problem with IOL, we already have what we think are 4 decent players for 3 positions and a backup.  At OT, we have 1 good player and 3 bums for 3 positions.  

 

Maybe Brown will take that step….if so, I’m worrying about nothing.  If he doesn’t, we’ll have probably wasted another Josh Allen prime season