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Drafting Has Been A Problem For Decades


Milanos Milano

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5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yes, "we've seen other teams draft late rounders and turn them into HOFs," as you say.

 

But it's rare. However, it is certainly a good possibility that it will happen with Milano. He was All-Pro last year.

 

Thought I'd do a quick research project on all of the many late round draft HOFers you're referring to as to be make it surprising to you that we haven't managed it yet in six years. They have to be retired for five years minimum, so it's no use looking at recent players. Thought I'd look at 1990 - 1999 just to see how often it happens. I looked at the fourth round and further back

 

1990 Shannon Sharpe, round 6 in a 12 round draft

1991 none

1992 none

1993 none, and the draft has been shortened to 8 rounds

1994 none

1995 Terrell Davis round 6

1996 Zack Thomas round 5

1997 none

1998 none

1998 none

 

In that same group of ten years, 37 HOFers were drafted in the first three rounds. And after that, three in the fourth and later.

 

So you're really waving a very rare phenomena around and pretending it happens all the time and it's surprising, when it's anything but.

 

 

 

Yes, we haven't flipped for a draft capital gain. That's because we don't do a lot of trading away of our best players. How many of our best have we traded. They make a goal of developing and keeping players. That's why we haven't.

 

"We draft 1-2nd round players and trade them for peanuts. The list is extensive," you say. I think it's fair to say that your definition of the word "extensive" is pretty much opposite of the one you'll find in the dictionary. Of all the twelve 1st and 2nd rounders drafted by this regime, Zay Jones, Cody Ford and nobody else have been traded. The other ten are all still on the team, though Tremaine is a free agent. Two is not @extensive" by any definition.

 

Your post is pretty much counter-factual about "extensive" and genuinely wacky about most of the rest of it.

 

 

AJE, Bashem & Groot have zero value in the trade market and Oliver is most likely traded this offseason. 

44 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

Andre Reed… hall of famer drafted in the 4th round.

 

Kyle Williams … all-pro drafted in the 5th round and possibly a hall of famer on a team that didn’t suck so bad.


Taron Johnson, Dawson Knox, Gabe Davis… all late round guys who will make $10M+. 
 

It’s luck and we’ve been fine. We drafted a top 3 QB and several other great players and are knocking on the door of the Super Bowl every year.

WR3 don't make $10m/year and while I like Knox, we don't utilize the TE position enough to justify the contract we gave him. I hope that changes next year and Knox is used more.

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I think Whaley’s scouts, both pro and draft, were better than Beane’s scouts. I don’t remember so many premium failures (high draft picks/costly FAs) under Whaley like Beane has had, but maybe that’s just recency bias. Beane got the one thing right that failed Whaley (QB).

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13 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Nothing wrong with keeping gems, but a big part of being a GM is knowing when to hold them and when to trade to optimize peak value. We are NOT attrition in well enough as we cycle and it’s why we are beginning to have cap issues again. Cap issues are directly tied to poor drafting. 
We should have traded Milano and Stevie while they still had a net positive gain. 

 

This is the exact reason why they should trade Ed this year i think we have seen his ceiling which isn't terrible but the money he will demand will be more than what he is worth & he isn't playing up to his draft status so get a pick or 2 for him from a team that has a need for him .

 

They have others that may be able to fill his position in Boogie or Settle then use the pics they get to bring up another D linemen .

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3 hours ago, MJS said:

The success of a team is determined by how many players they trade for draft picks?

 

The Bills have tons of good players that they drafted the in thus regime. And they kept them because they are good players!

It’s about knowing when to trade. Obviously you want to keep good players you draft, but a good GM is one that can replace that draft pick with something better before that players value falls off. 

41 minutes ago, T master said:

 

This is the exact reason why they should trade Ed this year i think we have seen his ceiling which isn't terrible but the money he will demand will be more than what he is worth & he isn't playing up to his draft status so get a pick or 2 for him from a team that has a need for him .

 

They have others that may be able to fill his position in Boogie or Settle then use the pics they get to bring up another D linemen .

Yep exactly, you understand the game. It’s about maximizing value that you can use to sustain a team for the future. Use the players you drafted but know when to trade or re-sign until you believe their value is still good until you need to move on. 

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1 hour ago, mushypeaches said:

My god it's a long off-season

 

Imagine if we didn't have a team that made the playoffs 5 out of the last 6 seasons

We are doing that only because of Allen and Diggs. But we aren’t winning the super bowl because our overall drafting hasn’t been good enough. 

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13 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

The problem is we don’t take the right one. Just like I was pretty high on Tariq Woolen. 
Just like I was high on Breece Hall. 
 

Just like I’m high on Avila, Hyatt and Flowers. Hope Beane listens to me. 

Who needs the Double Tree when we have the Hyatt. 

you are very high

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12 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:


lol I love the nuts on you, claiming that you know better than Beane because why? Breece Hall was good for 7 games?  And you “called it”? Honestly the level of delusion is borderline creepy.

 

13 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

The problem is we don’t take the right one. Just like I was pretty high on Tariq Woolen. 
Just like I was high on Breece Hall. 
 

Just like I’m high on Avila, Hyatt and Flowers. Hope Beane listens to me. 

Who needs the Double Tree when we have the Hyatt. 

 

Player A (Hall): 

80 for 463 (5.8 Y/A) and 4 TDs

19 catches / 31 targets for 218 and 1 TD (61.3% catch)

 

Player B: 

89 for 507 (5.7 Y/A) and 2 TDs

21 catches / 32 targets for 180 yards and 1 TD (65.6% catch)

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3 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

 

Player A (Hall): 

80 for 463 (5.8 Y/A) and 4 TDs

19 catches / 31 targets for 218 and 1 TD (61.3% catch)

 

Player B: 

89 for 507 (5.7 Y/A) and 2 TDs

21 catches / 32 targets for 180 yards and 1 TD (65.6% catch)

I had James Cook as a consolation RB prize. He was on my RB list of players to draft. I think Cook will turn out ok. 

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14 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Over the years we’ve seen other teams draft late rounders and turn them into HOFs or trade them for 1-3rd round picks. I can hardly think of anyone we have drafted that we ended up flipping for a draft capital gain. 
Diggs was a 5th rounder and traded for a 1st. Why can’t we have nice things like that? 
Instead we draft 1-2nd round players and trade them for peanuts. The list is extensive. It’s primarily why we have never won a super bowl. Probably the #1 reason. If it wasn’t for Allen, we’d be in for a load of hurt. 

do you like making threads where you know people will rarely agree with you? Knowing this thread and how you state things with your grand crystal ball just annoys people? 

 

your one of the cancer cells on this forum that just puts up one horrible narrative after another to hope it spreads.

giphy.gif

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4 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

do you like making threads where you know people will rarely agree with you? Knowing this thread and how you state things with your grand crystal ball just annoys people? 

 

your one of the cancer cells on this forum that just puts up one horrible narrative after another to hope it spreads.

giphy.gif


Why can’t you guys stick with football talk? If you don’t like the topic, stay out of the thread unless you want to contribute something meaningful. 

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15 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Over the years we’ve seen other teams draft late rounders and turn them into HOFs or trade them for 1-3rd round picks. I can hardly think of anyone we have drafted that we ended up flipping for a draft capital gain. 
Diggs was a 5th rounder and traded for a 1st. Why can’t we have nice things like that? 
Instead we draft 1-2nd round players and trade them for peanuts. The list is extensive. It’s primarily why we have never won a super bowl. Probably the #1 reason. If it wasn’t for Allen, we’d be in for a load of hurt. 


In all 32 teams.  Expectations are to hit on half.  anything more and you’re making a mistake and will always be let down.

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5 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

Right. 2017 was great. We didn't need Patrick Mahomes. What we did need was the 8th defensive back selected in that draft.  ;) 

I loved Mahomes coming out, check the archives here, I always thought that he was a lot like Brett Favre so it’s no wonder that Andy Reid wanted to draft him. I do wonder what conversations were had between McD and Whaley leading up to the draft, ultimately McD didn’t pull the trigger on Mahomes because he didn’t trust Whaley as a GM and he wanted to wait for Beane’s opinion on the matter.

 

I will say this, McD tried recruiting Beane to come to Buffalo for the 2017 draft but Beane opted to stay in Carolina that year. Had Beane came to Buffalo in 2017 like McD wanted, Patrick Mahomes may be our QB right now and not Josh Allen.

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4 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Having the worst scouts in the NFL will do that.

We literally have posters on this forum who are more qualified talent evaluators. 
I’m going to make a thread asking posters to give me a list of who they think will be mainstay players who will be good pros. I want to see who “predicts” the best. 

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1 hour ago, PrimeTime101 said:

maybe because no one really agrees with your thread?

There are 3 pages of people mostly agreeing with their point or engaging in debate/conversion. Are you ok with the past draft results? Whether it's coaching or scouting, we are not getting production from our picks in the top 2 rounds and we used a 3rd rounded for a special teams player instead of a player that could replace a player you are going to lose to free agency.

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3 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

I think Whaley’s scouts, both pro and draft, were better than Beane’s scouts. I don’t remember so many premium failures (high draft picks/costly FAs) under Whaley like Beane has had, but maybe that’s just recency bias. Beane got the one thing right that failed Whaley (QB).

EJ Manuel? Sammy Watkins? Shaq Lawson? Every 1st Round pick under Whaley under performed. What about the great 2nd rounders like Reggie Ragland and  Cyrus Kouandjio.  The list are bad, really bad https://us.blastingnews.com/sports/2016/12/doug-whaley-a-look-at-every-pick-from-the-buffalo-bills-gm-001360789.html

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The Bills have had late-round or undrafted gems. In the drought, the late-round picks and undrafted players were actually not the issues. Jason Peters was undrafted and flipped for a 1st and a 4th. Peerless Price while a 2nd round pick was flipped for a 1st at the height of his value. Jabari Greer and Fred Jackson were undrafted players with a good degree of success. Stevie Johnson, D'Norris Searcy, Nigel Bradham, Terrance McGee and Kyle Williams were mid to late-round picks who panned out well. 

 

The issue with the Bills drafting particularly during the drought was struggling to draft well in the early rounds and free agency. The Bills had so many busts in rounds 1-3 from 2002-2016 and the players they hit on that were productive were rarely dynamic players. There were a lot of Donte Whitner type successes where they were solid players but nothing special. 

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18 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Over the years we’ve seen other teams draft late rounders and turn them into HOFs or trade them for 1-3rd round picks. I can hardly think of anyone we have drafted that we ended up flipping for a draft capital gain. 
Diggs was a 5th rounder and traded for a 1st. Why can’t we have nice things like that? 
Instead we draft 1-2nd round players and trade them for peanuts. The list is extensive. It’s primarily why we have never won a super bowl. Probably the #1 reason. If it wasn’t for Allen, we’d be in for a load of hurt. 

 

This is amazing.  Because last year you said this team was built so strong that a back up QB could take us to the Super Bowl.  

This is a year ago and before the draft.  

 

On 3/19/2022 at 4:38 PM, IronMaidenBills said:

Great trade. I feel like Keenum could take us to the super bowl with our current squad if something ever happened to Josh. He’s not worse than Trent Dilfer is what I mean. 

 

Edited by Royale with Cheese
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5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

This is amazing.  Because last year you said this team was built so strong that a back up QB could take us to the Super Bowl.  

This is a year ago and before the draft.  

 

 

 

BillsMafia is IN THEIR FEELINGS this offseason :thumbsup: Gonna be a long one...

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I think if you really looked at every team's drafting over the years, which would be incredibly tedious, you would find that the Bills are probably not much different from everyone else. Every team misses more than they hit, and a great many top QB prospects never pan out. Late round Pro-bowlers are rare everywhere. 

 

The problem is that Bills fans look at the aggregated draft successes of all 31 other teams combined, and compare it to the Bills - without any real knowledge of other teams' draft failures, which are many. 

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1 minute ago, skibum said:

I think if you really looked at every team's drafting over the years, which would be incredibly tedious, you would find that the Bills are probably not much different from everyone else. Every team misses more than they hit, and a great many top QB prospects never pan out. Late round Pro-bowlers are rare everywhere. 

 

The problem is that Bills fans look at the aggregated draft successes of all 31 other teams combined, and compare it to the Bills - without any real knowledge of other teams' draft failures, which are many. 

 

I think if you can get 2 starters in a draft, it's successful.  I think ideally you want to get a lot of depth in the draft because of the salaries they make.

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2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

This is amazing.  Because last year you said this team was built so strong that a back up QB could take us to the Super Bowl.  

This is a year ago and before the draft.  

 

 

My optimism got the best of me, and I generally felt we had what it took. Man was I wrong, I now feel like this roster is not good enough, we got absolutely rolled by a way better Cincinnati team. If it wasn’t for Allen and Diggs, we wouldn’t even be in the playoffs. 

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2 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

The Bills have had late-round or undrafted gems. In the drought, the late-round picks and undrafted players were actually not the issues. Jason Peters was undrafted and flipped for a 1st and a 4th. Peerless Price while a 2nd round pick was flipped for a 1st at the height of his value. Jabari Greer and Fred Jackson were undrafted players with a good degree of success. Stevie Johnson, D'Norris Searcy, Nigel Bradham, Terrance McGee and Kyle Williams were mid to late-round picks who panned out well. 

 

The issue with the Bills drafting particularly during the drought was struggling to draft well in the early rounds and free agency. The Bills had so many busts in rounds 1-3 from 2002-2016 and the players they hit on that were productive were rarely dynamic players. There were a lot of Donte Whitner type successes where they were solid players but nothing special. 

 

While it’s true we found some gems in the later rounds, none of those gems are truly elite, to the point where their talents can transcend a team. You are right, our 1-3 round drafting has been absolutely garbage for nearly 25 years. It’s the main reason why we haven’t won a super bowl. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

My optimism got the best of me, and I generally felt we had what it took. Man was I wrong, I now feel like this roster is not good enough, we got absolutely rolled by a way better Cincinnati team. If it wasn’t for Allen and Diggs, we wouldn’t even be in the playoffs. 

If we didn’t have our best players, we would not have done as well. Imagine that.

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1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

If we didn’t have our best players, we would not have done as well. Imagine that.

The point is, the talent surrounding Allen and Diggs is not good enough. We’ve had to rely on the FA class to plug holes, and as a result, the cap room has shrunk. It’s because our draft class hasn’t been good enough to substitute for the higher FA salaries. We haven’t been able to flip draft picks for value gain, and instead have had to write off value losses (Ford, etc). 

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Just now, IronMaidenBills said:

 

While it’s true we found some gems in the later rounds, none of those gems are truly elite, to the point where their talents can transcend a team. You are right, our 1-3 round drafting has been absolutely garbage for nearly 25 years. It’s the main reason why we haven’t won a super bowl. 

 

 

 

The drafting under McBeane has been better which is a huge reason why they have been winning in recent years. From 2017-2018 the team found All-Pro talents in Josh Allen, Matt Milano, and Tre White, they also found Pro-Bowl caliber talents in Dion Dawkins and Edumonds and some underrated players like T.Johnson. 2019-2022 has not been as strong but they have consistently hit on productive players. Elam, Cook, and Groot have a lot of potential and already are starting caliber players, Knox is a top 10 player at his position, Bass is a stud kicker, and the level of production from other players like Davis, Singletary, Ed Oliver, Dane Jackson, and AJ has been positive. And there is still hope for late bloomers in Boogie, Spencer Brown, Shakir, and others. 

 

I also disagree that the Bills have never found elite talent in later rounds. Matt Milano was a 5th-round pick but going back even father Jason Peters is a Hall of Famer that was undrafted by the Bills and was a stud his few years here before being traded for a 1st and 4th. Kyle Williams was a 5th-round pick and an All-Pro/Pro-Bowl talent for a stretch of time. On top of that, Pat Williams was an undrafted player and was a stud. 

 

I think you are not really giving credit to a player like Jason Peters who was one of the best-undrafted players of all time or other very good to great late-round and undrafted players the Bills have had come through. Outside of Kurt Warner, Brady, and a few others, I can't really think of too many transcendent players that went undrafted or were drafted very late. 

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9 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

The point is, the talent surrounding Allen and Diggs is not good enough. We’ve had to rely on the FA class to plug holes, and as a result, the cap room has shrunk. It’s because our draft class hasn’t been good enough to substitute for the higher FA salaries. We haven’t been able to flip draft picks for value gain, and instead have had to write off value losses (Ford, etc). 

 

The 2017 and 2018 Bills draft classes were amazing but the 2019-2022 draft classes thus far have been OK. The Bills in 2017-2018 hit a lot of "home runs" and "triples". I would say that Josh Allen, Tre White, and Matt Milano were home-run picks while Dion Dawkins, T.Johnson, and Edmonds were triples so to speak. Whereas from 2019 to 2022 the team has hit a lot of single and double. The Bills have found productive players who can start at an effective level or play a role such as Knox, Singletary, Ed Oliver, Groot, Elam, Davis, AJ and Dane Jackson but they have not had any truly elite players or even "very good" players come out of those drafts outside of Bass who is a ST player. 

 

I still hold out hope for Groot, Elam, Cook and others to take that next step but the 2019 draft class and 2020 draft classes don't look like they will be producing that type of player. The two best players in those drafts are Knox and Ed Oliver, both are solid starting caliber players but neither is elite or close to being a "Pro Bowl" caliber player. If the Bills hope to win a Super Bowl they need more development from the 2021 and 2022 classes and a good impact from the 2023 class.

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18 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

It’s almost like McD’s best draft was in 2017, when Whaley was still GM. Shoot, we did somehow manage to draft Nathan Peterman in the 5th round.


All jokes aside, we drafted Tre White, Dion Dawkins and Matt Milano that year. Has Beane been able to outdo that draft since he’s been here? Major kudos for drafting Allen, but what else has he done outside of that?

 

 

Answer: not a damn thing.

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1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

Do you know this is the kind of thread that I would see on a three and 13 team not a 13 and three team

We are 13-3 simply because of Josh Allen and Diggs. We are not winning Super Bowls because we are losing to more balanced teams. Josh Allen isn’t super man, he’s amazing and it’s a testament to how good he is with the less elite talent around him. 
 

Just go get Josh Allen DeAndre Hopkins and draft a bunch of olinemen and we would win a super bowl. 

Hopkins + Diggs + Oline infusion = Super Bowl 

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4 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

We are 13-3 simply because of Josh Allen and Diggs. We are not winning Super Bowls because we are losing to more balanced teams. Josh Allen isn’t super man, he’s amazing and it’s a testament to how good he is with the less elite talent around him. 
 

Just go get Josh Allen DeAndre Hopkins and draft a bunch of olinemen and we would win a super bowl. 

Hopkins + Diggs + Oline infusion = Super Bowl 

It’s sad that I have to tell you this, but
A team is not based off two players. You can have a great one to combination it doesn’t get you to 13 and three.

 

I can’t believe you need to be told this

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6 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

It’s sad that I have to tell you this, but
A team is not based off two players. You can have a great one to combination it doesn’t get you to 13 and three.

 

I can’t believe you need to be told this

We are likely 10-7 without Josh and Diggs.  We are not a better overall team vs Cincinnati, which is all that matters. We need to go out and do what Philly did, trade or draft an elite WR to pair with Diggs.  Go trade for Hopkins and draft a player like Hyatt and we will win a super bowl. 

Hopkins is the missing piece, and we are in a striking position to make it happen. Now is the time to do these kinds of trades. 

 

Diggs

Hopkins

Hyatt

Davis

Shakir 

 

Is a super bowl caliber offense. 

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1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said:

We are likely 10-7 without Josh and Diggs.  

 

I think that's very generous.  IMO we're not even 10-7 w/o merely Allen.  Take Allen off this team and put say Keenum in there and as I see it instead of 13-3 this season we'd have been no better than 8-8, probably a game or two worse than that even, rivaling our worst teams over that prior period.  I mean honestly, without Allen what kind of offense do we have?  LOL  

 

Honestly, if you compare our team to other teams during that playoff drought era, "the Last 20 Years," I think that the rosters we had most of those years apart from Allen were better.  

 

Put Allen on most of those teams and we make the playoffs a bunch of times, possibly even win won with the roster we had during Gailey's time.  The OLs on almost all of those teams were better and can you recall when we had worse RBs?  Our defenses were no worse, typically better.  One year we had the DL of Schobel, Williams, and Kelsay.  Hell, that's worlds better than what we have now.  Fletcher, Spikes, and someone else decent at LB, and a very good secondary too.  

 

BTW, our issue isn't the regular season, it's the playoffs.  Diggs hasn't played well in the last five playoff games.  Miami, but Davis outplayed him.  Diggs hasn't had a TD in the last 5 playoff games.  When you're getting that kind of money a lot is expected.  

 

Out biggest players no-show in the playoffs.   Here is Digg's last five playoff games, the big game was Miami this season.  

 

RecYardsTD

6 for 77,  0 TDs 

3 for 60,  0  TDs 

3 for 7, 0 TDs  

7 for 114,  0  TDs  

4 for 35,  0  TDs  

 

Everyone's all over Davis, but that's a total of 23 catches for 293 yards and 0 TDs in the last 5 playoff games.  In our three biggest games, two against KC and the one against Cinci, Diggs had 13 catches for a 119 yards, 0 TDs of course.  That's horrific for someone getting paid like he is.  

 

Davis on the other hand, a late 4th rounder that everyone's griping about, in those same five games had 18 for 389 and 6 TDs.  In the three games against KC and Cinci he had 10 for 235, 4 TDs.  Granted, most of that was in that one KC game, but the point is that Diggs isn't playing anywhere near to what's expected in the playoffs.  Neither are any of our 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round draftees except for Allen.  

 

Take Diggs off too and I see us talking about who we're drafting with our 5th overall pick.  

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

My optimism got the best of me, and I generally felt we had what it took. Man was I wrong, I now feel like this roster is not good enough, we got absolutely rolled by a way better Cincinnati team. If it wasn’t for Allen and Diggs, we wouldn’t even be in the playoffs. 


You’re acting like we are the only team that wouldn’t make the playoffs if our two best players were gone lol.

 

No Mahomes or Kelce means no playoffs for Chiefs.

 

No Burrow and Chase means no playoffs for the Bengals.

 

 

1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said:

We are likely 10-7 without Josh and Diggs.  We are not a better overall team vs Cincinnati, which is all that matters. We need to go out and do what Philly did, trade or draft an elite WR to pair with Diggs.  Go trade for Hopkins and draft a player like Hyatt and we will win a super bowl. 

Hopkins is the missing piece, and we are in a striking position to make it happen. Now is the time to do these kinds of trades. 

 

Diggs

Hopkins

Hyatt

Davis

Shakir 

 

Is a super bowl caliber offense. 

 
If we go 10-7 without Allen and Diggs then you really believe McDermott is an excellent coach.  Winning 10 games without a franchise QB and a #1 WR in the AFC?  
 

Do what Philly did?  Trade a first round pick for a vet WR?  Man, we haven’t tried that you’re right.  

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6 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:


You’re acting like we are the only team that wouldn’t make the playoffs if our two best players were gone lol.

 

No Mahomes or Kelce means no playoffs for Chiefs.

 

No Burrow and Chase means no playoffs for the Bengals.

 

 

 
If we go 10-7 without Allen and Diggs then you really believe McDermott is an excellent coach.  Winning 10 games without a franchise QB and a #1 WR in the AFC?  
 

Do what Philly did?  Trade a first round pick for a vet WR?  Man, we haven’t tried that you’re right.  

Philly had already drafted a 1st round WR and then traded for another elite WR. Cincinnati has 2 elite WRs, and Mahomes has Kelce and decent supporting players. 

If Buffalo wants to compete against Philly, Cinci, and KC , they need another elite offensive weapon. 

 

There aren’t many elite WRs on the trade market.  Diggs + Hopkins is unstoppable. Then draft Hyatt to be WR3. 

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