James Cook -- 5.8 ypc(!) and his longest is only 33 yards.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

10 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I agree, cook looks legit.  The fact that he has breakaway speed makes it even better. That’s all that really matters. 😃 

In this style of offense where you get only 8-10 carries, yes that break away speed is crucial. That’s why Moss just wasn’t the right fit. Moss needs 20 carries. 

[3rdand12]

11 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I'm not sure I've aeen hom break a tackle either. I guess that's not his game. He makes people miss. Once he's grabbed its over. I really liked Blackshear. He looked great granted it was preseason. However, he looks solid in his opportunities in Carolina. 

angles , vision , and some downfield blocking might serve James well
and the pass game.
all in good time

12 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

He'll get 4 carries next week.

and 7 catches ? with plenty of YAC ? Is that what you are saying

[Rock'em Sock'em]

4 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

4.62 yards per carry (13th) with Allen’s designed runs in there, okay see they’re average.

I have four thoughts.

1. You would need to subtract out every other team's non-designed QB runs to determine ranking with that formula.  It may change a position or two (I would guess lower).

2. Allen's runs are part of our offense.  Defenses actually game plan for it with QB spies and such.  As a team measurement, it's accurate to leave that in.  With all QB runs included, the Bills are at 5.3ypc good for 8th.

3. Defenses tend to focus on the pass against us and also need to account for Allen.  I would expect the YPC of our RBs to be better than average, and they are.

4. For the most part, the offensive line absolutely dominated the Bears in the run game.  Here's hoping for the same against the Bengals.

[BearNorth]

Is Cook a better option than L'il Dirty in the slot? Cook is bigger and just as fast.

[ColoradoBills]

"Bell cow"?   LOL.  What is this the 1970s?

From what I see, Cook can easily be the Bills #1RB getting 200-225 rushes per year with another 75 targets.

Singletary's highest rushing year was last season with 188 rushes and this season he has 51 targets so far.

 

The Bills need a "change of pace" RB, but it's the other way around.  He needs to be a bigger bruiser type guy.

The 3rd RB is a Hines type.

 

Like others have said, once Cook puts on some adult muscle weight, he'll be fine for that role. 

[T master]

19 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

Love his speed and think they need to keep increasing his time on the field. This offense is dying for dynamic players right now and he's showing he's up to the task.

 

 

 

 

If they can run like they did last week with the 2 of them i'm good with that all day !! 

[dave mcbride]

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'd say James Cook needs to become a 1500 yard per season producer between years 2-4 of his deal for the selection to be a modest success on it's own merit.

 

That's not to say they won't be able to find a RB1 late in the draft or UDFA or off a scrap heap somewhere and then have Cook instead be a useful change of pace back and come out unscathed by the selection anyway..........but you don't take a RB in round 2 to not be a big time producer.

 

I sorta see your point, but the numerical goal seems like the wrong metric. Rather, I’d want a guy averaging 7 yards per play (meaning rushes and targeted passes, inclusive of incompletions), which is a solid yards per passing play number in and of itself. Top receiving RBs catch about 80 percent of the balls thrown their way at best, btw. Obviously, you want that player to get a lot of touches, but you also want multiple guys racking up solid numbers, from slot receivers to TEs to the other running back to the wideouts.

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Only 5 RBs managed that feat last year so that is not a realistic standard. I thought you didn't like offenses that over-utilized RBs as pass catchers. We would have to completely overhaul our offensive philosophy for him to get that much production. We drafted him to give us an explosive skill set that was missing from our RB room, not to become our primary offensive weapon.

 

 

It was a low 2nd round pick that Beane only used after trading back several times presumably because he only had players with 3rd round grades left on the board. A RB taken in the 1st round needs to do what you're saying. Low 2nd round you are looking for meaningful contributors.

 

First of all........there will likely be 10 RB's that hit 1500 total yards this season so you are intentionally using a soft number.

 

IMO the league looked at the contracts WR were earning........realized they were getting too expensive.........and stopped calling PI/holding/obstruction penalties and now RB's are getting more action.   

 

That's the league James Cook entered.

 

But as for being realistic?  

 

About 50% of 1st rounders don't even get their 5th year option exercised.......abject failures mostly.

 

I don't think you are actually talking about the difference between what is considered success and what is actually "realistic"..........the bar is quite low for "realistic".

 

The math on RB's is pretty simple........only a few get picked in the first 2 rounds most years(3 this past year)..........and the new tipping point for durability and production for most is about 26 years of age.    

 

So basically every 4-5 years it's almost a complete turnover at the top end of the position.   If you are picked early and you aren't one of the very best on your first contract then you didn't pan out.

[Shaw66]

15 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

He has really come on since the bye. The first 6 weeks he really seemed to be lacking some of the explosion on his college film and it absolutely looks like that was because he was hesitating and not trusting his eyes. Now it has slowed down for him he looks really good.

 

Question is could he be that #1 guy if Devin walks? Because if he can't then I'm not sure change of pace back is sufficienct value for a 2nd round pick... even if they get him going a bit more in the passing game.

He has improved a lot, and I think he has more to go.   One thing I like is that he seems to have gotten the message about ball security.   He's been at least a few times in the last few weeks where I worried that the ball would come out, but he's been rock solid.  

 

One thing that I think has changed is that he's gotten comfortable with running north-south and then creating yardage as tacklers approach.  Earlier in the season he kept pressing to the outside because he didn't see a hole or seam he liked.  He now seems to be hitting it upfield on the first opportunity. 

 

I don't think the Bills want him just as a change of pace back.   I think it's more likely that they'd like him to share the load with Singletary.  That's what they tried to do with Moss, but Moss never got very consistent production.  They're not Zeke and Pollard, but they could be a very nice pair to throw at teams.  

 

I still think it's early to anoint him as a starter level guy, but I no longer shudder when I see him come in.  And the Bills don't, either.  When the Bills put him in, they put him in expecting him to stay in the huddle for the whole drive. 

36 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I sorta see your point, but the numerical goal seems like the wrong metric. Rather, I’d want a guy averaging 7 yards per play (meaning rushes and targeted passes, inclusive of incompletions), which is a solid yards per passing play number in and of itself. Top receiving RBs catch about 80 percent of the balls thrown their way at best, btw. Obviously, you want that player to get a lot of touches, but you also want multiple guys racking up solid numbers, from slot receivers to TEs to the other running back to the wideouts.

Actually, I think 1500 total yards is a pretty good measure.   I mean, if he doesn't get there, it doesn't mean it's a bad pick.   It's all a crapshoot, and lately he's been showing the skills that made him at least a decent bet in the second round.   So, the pick still doesn't bother.   But at the end of the day, when we're keeping score, if he isn't up over 1000 total yards consistently, he won't be a second-round pick who produced the hoped-for value.  

[BADOLBILZ]

31 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I sorta see your point, but the numerical goal seems like the wrong metric. Rather, I’d want a guy averaging 7 yards per play (meaning rushes and targeted passes, inclusive of incompletions), which is a solid yards per passing play number in and of itself. Top receiving RBs catch about 80 percent of the balls thrown their way at best, btw. Obviously, you want that player to get a lot of touches, but you also want multiple guys racking up solid numbers, from slot receivers to TEs to the other running back to the wideouts.

 

Yeah I think that's the kind of per play impact you would expect/want........but given the Bills situation wrt cap and having Singletary as a UFA(and Hines with too big of a cap number).......I think they also LIKELY have a higher need for Cook to be well into the 200's on touches in 2023-2025.

 

Which gives him a chance to not just be impactful in limited use(which might be fine by McBeane) but also on the field for a relatively high % of snaps and put up the kind of numbers you expect from an early round RB.    

 

 

[LanderPoke]

Earlier in the season everyone said he sucked

[HappyDays]

35 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

But at the end of the day, when we're keeping score, if he isn't up over 1000 total yards consistently, he won't be a second-round pick who produced the hoped-for value.  

 

The reason I don't care about total yards is that we now have a multifaceted offense. I expect as long as Allen is here we're going to distribute the ball to everybody and that distribution is going to be game plan specific. I'm a big believer in holistic offensive production which means having different skill sets that you can utilize to be successful in different situations.

 

So for example in the last 3 games the Bills have scored 29.0 PPG. In the first 12 games we scored 27.75 PPG. So slightly better scoring production in the last 3 games. The reason I bring this up is that in the last 3 games Diggs has had a mere 41.0 YPG, whereas in the first 12 games he had 100.2 YPG. Diggs is without question the most talented offensive weapon we have other than Allen but we've been scoring a little bit more while targeting him much less.

 

All I need for Cook to be successful as a 2nd round pick is to meaningfully contribute to a highly productive offense during a Super Bowl run. Against Chicago the game script necessitated him getting 100 yards on the ground and a TD. Against other teams our downfield passing offense might be working with high efficiency so Cook won't be as involved. I'm not going to set specific total metrics that I need to see from Cook or any other player on this offense not named Josh Allen in order to prove that that player has worth.

 

Diggs over the last 3 games despite having just 41 YPG still has been a meaningful contributor to the offense since he draws coverage away from others on the field and takes advantage of his limited targets. With Cook on the field defenses have one more element to worry about and he is taking advantage of the plays that are given to him as shown by his 5.8 yards per carry and 9.2 yards per reception.

 

In short - I'm less concerned with the total offensive production of any single skill position player than I am with the total offensive production created by the whole machine. The efficiency of each player when their number is called is what matters.

 

Edited December 27, 2022 by HappyDays

[Locomark]

Waiting to see if he can make any impact on shirt yardage or on goal to go. That will show me he is worthy of praise. So far he is what I thought he minimally could be, which is a least a complimentary speed back like Kenny was to Thurman. 

[skibum]

He would have more long runs if it weren't for that stupid end zone getting in the way. 

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, Locomark said:

Waiting to see if he can make any impact on shirt yardage or on goal to go. That will show me he is worthy of praise. So far he is what I thought he minimally could be, which is a least a complimentary speed back like Kenny was to Thurman. 

He’s already doing pretty well on short yardage

[Shaw66]

13 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

The reason I don't care about total yards is that we now have a multifaceted offense. I expect as long as Allen is here we're going to distribute the ball to everybody and that distribution is going to be game plan specific. I'm a big believer in holistic offensive production which means having different skill sets that you can utilize to be successful in different situations.

 

So for example in the last 3 games the Bills have scored 29.0 PPG. In the first 12 games we scored 27.75 PPG. So slightly better scoring production in the last 3 games. The reason I bring this up is that in the last 3 games Diggs has had a mere 41.0 YPG, whereas in the first 12 games he had 100.2 YPG. Diggs is without question the most talented offensive weapon we have other than Allen but we've been scoring a little bit more while targeting him much less.

 

All I need for Cook to be successful as a 2nd round pick is to meaningfully contribute to a highly productive offense during a Super Bowl run. Against Chicago the game script necessitated him getting 100 yards on the ground and a TD. Against other teams our downfield passing offense might be working with high efficiency so Cook won't be as involved. I'm not going to set specific total metrics that I need to see from Cook or any other player on this offense not named Josh Allen in order to prove that that player has worth.

 

Diggs over the last 3 games despite having just 41 YPG still has been a meaningful contributor to the offense since he draws coverage away from others on the field and takes advantage of his limited targets. With Cook on the field defenses have one more element to worry about and he is taking advantage of the plays that are given to him as shown by his 5.8 yards per carry and 9.2 yards per reception.

 

In short - I'm less concerned with the total offensive production of any single skill position player than I am with the total offensive production created by the whole machine. The efficiency of each player when their number is called is what matters.

 

That's a great look at it.  From a team building philosophy, you're approach is exactly correct.

 

However, if the discussion is evaluating return on draft picks (a discussion I don't often get into because I think the only way to evaluate a GM's draft record is from a global perspective), a part-time player who gets you 900 yards a year would be something of a disappointment as a second-round pick.  I mean, in terms of value to the team, it would make more sense to have taken Singletary in the second round and a 900-yard guy in the third round.  Motor is clearly the more important contributor to the team.  That, of course, points out the silliness of spending too much time evaluating the draft:   If you have Singletary and Cook as your running backs and part of your success is the running game, then it's irrelevant which guy was taken in which round - it's the results you get from the cumulative drafts that matters.   

 

But if you're playing the evaluate-each-pick game, a part-time running back is less value than you'd like to get in the second round, just like I'd say a part-time receiver is less value than you'd like to get in the second round.  For example, if five years ago the Bills had drafted McKenzie in the second round, we'd all be looking back saying that that pick was something of a disappointment - Davis in the third was better.

13 hours ago, LanderPoke said:

Earlier in the season everyone said he sucked

I was really disappointed in him.  And I didn't expect him to improve, because it's often the case that what you see from running backs as rookies is what you get.  Moss, for example, was more or less as valuable as a rookie as he is now.  Singletary, too - he's certainly improved, but in his rookie year we saw that he could be productive.  I think Motor could do it as a rookie because he had to do it that way in college, too.  He learned to get the hard yards, because there weren't easy yards to be had in college.

 

This is pure speculation on my part, but I wonder whether Cook's ever really been challenged to learn how to be a running back.   He obviously has a lot of talent, and I can imagine that in high school, they just gave him the ball, told him to run, and good things happened.  Even at Georgia, I remember looking at his highlights and thinking that what I was seeing was a guy with speed who was presented with these big holes to run through, so he ran through them.  He wasn't a power back, for sure, and he didn't show much that suggested he was an ankle-breaker, either.  He just took off and celebrated in the end zone.  He didn't need to get the tough yards.   That's not to say that he didn't have some shiftiness or some ability to break tackles, just that he didn't show a whole lot of either because he didn't need to.  

 

Earlier in the season, someone asked McDermott about Cook's lack of production, and he dismissed it, saying something like "he's making good progress."   When I heard that, I thought, as I often do, "what do I know?  Maybe there's more to this than meets the eye."  And, indeed, Cook seems to be developing.  My big complaint about him, as I said earlier, was that he was trying to run away from tacklers, like beyond the edge, instead of cutting it up into whatever crease was presented to him.  I think, as I said, he never was challenged to do that in college.  If there wasn't a whole, he'd break it outside and often as not, he'd outrun someone to the edge.   He's had to learn that in the NFL, the defenders are just too quick to beat them to the edge - you just have take best opportunity in front of you and if you're good, like Singletary or Fred Jackson, you learn how make something of that opportunity.   That's what we've begun to see from Cook.  In a sense, he's learned not to run away from the challenge of running into the hole and instead to try to make something of what he finds there.   What he's finding is that he CAN make something of it, and that's what makes him dangerous.   And, I suspect, that also explains why he hasn't been the threat in the passing game that we had hoped.   I think he has to be able to keep defenses honest first, to force them to respect his running between the tackles.   Once they respect that he will have an advantage on throws to the flat and on wheel routes.  

[John from Riverside]

For those wanting cook to replace McKenzie in the slot I just wanna point out that shakur actually had a touchdown in this game

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I don’t know what it’s going to take to get this guy the ball. He might actually be that x factor opens up this offense and makes us unstoppable. And he’s already on the roster…sometimes I don’t know what our coaches are looking at

[MAJBobby]

On 12/25/2022 at 10:43 PM, dave mcbride said:

Discuss. (Point is, there aren’t any 80-yard runs padding his stats.)

Cook will be perfect as RB1 in 23. 

[Motorin']

On 12/26/2022 at 11:08 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'd say James Cook needs to become a 1500 yard per season producer between years 2-4 of his deal for the selection to be a modest success on it's own merit.

 

That's not to say they won't be able to find a RB1 late in the draft or UDFA or off a scrap heap somewhere and then have Cook instead be a useful change of pace back and come out unscathed by the selection anyway..........but you don't take a RB in round 2 to not be a big time producer.

 

 

That's a pretty good bar to set for a true #1 RB in our offense, imo. 

 

Last year our RB's got 400 total targets (including incompletions) for around 1,850 total yards. That's 4.5 yards per target...

 

Cook is averaging 5.7 yards per target... Giving him 70% of the total targets, at his current pace of 5.7 yards per target would yield about 1,600 yards. 

 

Lots of questions remain, can he withstand the physical demands? And if he can, does his per target production go down? 

 

But certainly not outside the realm of possibility, and not the amount of touches that would radically alter the offense...

 

If anything, added carries to the RB position could come out of Josh's designed runs in a few years. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 27, 2022 by Motorin'

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Motorin' said:

 

That's a pretty good bar to set for a true #1 RB in our offense, imo. 

 

Last year our RB's got 400 total targets (including incompletions) for around 1,850 total yards. That's 4.5 yards per target...

 

Cook is averaging 5.7 yards per target... Giving him 70% of the total targets, at his current pace of 5.7 yards per target would yield about 1,600 yards. 

 

Lots of questions remain, can he withstand the physical demands? And if he can, does his per target production go down? 

 

But certainly not outside the realm of possibility, and not the amount of touches that would radically alter the offense...

 

If anything, added carries to the RB position could come out of Josh's designed runs in a few years. 

 

 

 

 

 

Alvin Kamara’s rookie season was off the charts - 7.06 per target/carry. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KamaAl00.htm
 

I wrote earlier that 7 yards per target / carry should be a goal, but that’s too high. It hardly ever happens.

 

Strangely enough, CJ Spiller had one of the best RB seasons in the NFL in this century — 6.45 yards per carry/target and 1703 total yards in 2012.

Edited December 27, 2022 by dave mcbride

[Mr. WEO]

On 12/25/2022 at 11:10 PM, wvbillsfan said:

There are just too many games where he’s not touching the ball enough

10 Carries minimum

3 or 4 check downs 

 

I need to see that every single week and we just aren’t 

 

Those are essentially Singletary's numbers (11 and 3.4).  You think Cook should be getting more than Singletary?

[Motorin']

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Alvin Kamara’s rookie season was off the charts - 7.06 per target/carry. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KamaAl00.htm
 

I wrote earlier that 7 yards per target / carry should be a goal, but that’s too high. It hardly ever happens.

 

Strangely enough, CJ Spiller had one of the best RB seasons in the NFL in this century — 6.45 yards per carry/target and 1703 total yards in 2012.

 

Last year was the first year that Austin Ekler started a full 16 games. He had 1550 yards on 300 total carries/target... Putting him at 5.2 per total target.... 

 

Davin Cook's most productive season he went for over 1900 total years on 366 targets, which puts him at 5.2 yards per total target.

 

 

 

 

[boater]

There was some talking head who went over the top when Cook was drafted by Buffalo. He predicted big things. He was very enthusiastic. He got me charged up.

 

Anyone remember who that was?