Christmas storm could be “Paralyzing” for Buffalo

[CountDorkula]

 

 

didn’t we just have a once in a generation storm?

[ExiledInIllinois]

I think with this one it will be winds and cold.

 

Remember, only about 10" NEW SNOW fell during Blizzard of '77... BUT L.Erie froze early that year and lots of snow was sitting on the ice.  It was a ground blizzard and all the previous fallen snow blew around... That was a generational storm!

[BillsPride12]

Buffalo tends to get a once in a generation storm every year it seems like 

[Not at the table Karlos]

2 hours ago, CountDorkula said:

 

 

didn’t we just have a once in a generation storm?

That was a once every 10 years storm. 

[PetermansRedemption]

I’ll believe it when I see it. Didn’t plan to go anywhere this weekend anyways. The weather forecasters frequently over-promise and under-deliver. 

[Big Turk]

12 hours ago, CountDorkula said:

 

 

didn’t we just have a once in a generation storm?

 

Prior to 2014 yes...it's happnedd twice in 8 years(to the day) so perhaps it is going to be a once every 8 year event from now on.

 

This is basically a Blizzard of 77 type Storm without 3+ feet of snow on the ground already in Buffalo and on top of the length of frozen Lake Erie to be blown into the city like a giant fan blowing feathers on someone. The pressure will be similar to that of what a Category 3 hurricane is...truly astonishing.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Big Turk

[Big Turk]

12 hours ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

I think with this one it will be winds and cold.

 

Remember, only about 10" NEW SNOW fell during Blizzard of '77... BUT L.Erie froze early that year and lots of snow was sitting on the ice.  It was a ground blizzard and all the previous fallen snow blew around... That was a generational storm!

 

Winds will definitely play a big part in this one but we will also get quite a bit of snow unlike the Blizzard of 77. New model runs are showing about 20" in the Metro area to 30-50" running up from Erie, PA all the way to the Eastern Burbs of Buffalo like Depew/Lancaster due to heavy lake effect snow that will develop behind the frontal passage.

 

This was not possible during the Blizzard of 77 since the Lake was already frozen. However the 2 months leading up to that set the stage for something that may not be seen again for 10,000 years...the amount of things that all had to come together over a two month period of time for that to occur the way it did was remarkable...

48 minutes ago, PetermansRedemption said:

I’ll believe it when I see it. Didn’t plan to go anywhere this weekend anyways. The weather forecasters frequently over-promise and under-deliver. 

 

There are levels to saying that. Saying that for a storm of this magnitude where all models are in agreeance that it is going to be this severe is the height of idiocy.

 

You don't very many Category 3 land hurricanes coming through this area.

 

You already saw 81" of snow a month ago...did that "over-promise and under-deliver"?

Edited December 21, 2022 by Big Turk

[ExiledInIllinois]

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Winds will definitely play a big part in this one but we will also get quite a bit of snow unlike the Blizzard of 77. New model runs are showing about 20" in the Metro area to 30-50" running up from Erie, PA all the way to the Eastern Burbs of Buffalo like Depew/Lancaster due to heavy lake effect snow that will develop behind the frontal passage.

 

This was not possible during the Blizzard of 77 since the Lake was already frozen. However the 2 months leading up to that set the stage for something that may not be seen again for 10,000 years...the amount of things that all had to come together over a two month period of time for that to occur the way it did was remarkable...

 

There are levels to saying that. Saying that for a storm of this magnitude where all models are in agreeance that it is going to be this severe is the height of idiocy.

 

You don't very many Category 3 land hurricanes coming through this area.

 

You already saw 81" of snow a month ago...did that "over-promise and under-deliver"?

Very localized. Huge localized storms always happened. We just didn't live there with so many and communicate about it so openly.  It snowed at the airport,  and that was the official.  Nobody payed attention that they were getting 7 feet of snow in the Boston Hills just 20 miles away... 

 

Yet... This storm will be a system...

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

Very localized. Huge localized storms always happened. We just didn't live there with so many and communicate about it so openly.  It snowed at the airport,  and that was the official.  Nobody payed attention that they were getting 7 feet of snow in the Boston Hills just 20 miles away... 

 

I got almost 4 feet in Lancaster this time and 7 feet in 2014...it was localized but it also dumped a lot of snow in various areas too.  When we moved to this area, having grown up in WNY, I had no idea this was considered a snow belt out here east of the airport...I always thought the snowbelts were only in the Southtowns and Southern Tier/Ski Country.  Basically after being here for almost 20 years now, a good general rule of thumb is I take whatever the official number is at the airport and add about 20-30" to it as what we got during a given year. Sometimes less, sometimes more, but in general that is about right.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Big Turk

[ExiledInIllinois]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

I got almost 4 feet in Lancaster this time and 7 feet in 2014...it was localized but it also dumped a lot of snow in various areas too.

It's why the early Natives packed up every fall and stayed near Batavia in the winter.  😉

[PetermansRedemption]

13 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Winds will definitely play a big part in this one but we will also get quite a bit of snow unlike the Blizzard of 77. New model runs are showing about 20" in the Metro area to 30-50" running up from Erie, PA all the way to the Eastern Burbs of Buffalo like Depew/Lancaster due to heavy lake effect snow that will develop behind the frontal passage.

 

This was not possible during the Blizzard of 77 since the Lake was already frozen. However the 2 months leading up to that set the stage for something that may not be seen again for 10,000 years...the amount of things that all had to come together over a two month period of time for that to occur the way it did was remarkable...

 

There are levels to saying that. Saying that for a storm of this magnitude where all models are in agreeance that it is going to be this severe is the height of idiocy.

 

You don't very many Category 3 land hurricanes coming through this area.

 

You already saw 81" of snow a month ago...did that "over-promise and under-deliver"?

Yes

[Big Turk]

8 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

It's why the early Natives packed up every fall and stayed near Batavia in the winter.  😉

 

Hahaha...smart people, although Batavia can get smacked too during stronger events. Ironically they get hit when our area gets smacked hard when the wind takes the band up through Lackawanna, just misses downtown Buffalo and we get a direct bullseye, just missing the airport and out to Batavia. Not that uncommon.

 

6 minutes ago, PetermansRedemption said:

Yes

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Big Turk

[PetermansRedemption]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Hahaha...smart people, although Batavia can get smacked too during stronger events.

 

And… yes lol

[WhoTom]

41 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

You already saw 81" of snow a month ago...did that "over-promise and under-deliver"?

 

Mike McDaniel wished it were more.

 

 

 

[Wacka]

Talk aBOUT LOClizd. In 2014, we had 7 feet. At Broadway and Union(1.5 miles north) they had maybe 6 inches at most. At the airport (another 1.5 miles north) -no snow.

[Not at the table Karlos]

1 hour ago, Wacka said:

Talk aBOUT LOClizd. In 2014, we had 7 feet. At Broadway and Union(1.5 miles north) they had maybe 6 inches at most. At the airport (another 1.5 miles north) -no snow.

Elk street one side had feet the other inches

[The Jokeman]

My mother in law is already stressing as she was supposed to drive up to us in Tonawanda from West Seneca on Christmas Eve to spend time with us and my dad. She was stay the night and then go home late Christmas day before this storm news came up. Honestly I don't think it's going to be anything major in terms of amount of snow yet because of the possibility of high winds everyone's worried. 

Edited December 22, 2022 by The Jokeman

[Not at the table Karlos]

On 12/21/2022 at 9:11 AM, Big Turk said:

 

Prior to 2014 yes...it's happnedd twice in 8 years(to the day) so perhaps it is going to be a once every 8 year event from now on.

 

This is basically a Blizzard of 77 type Storm without 3+ feet of snow on the ground already in Buffalo and on top of the length of frozen Lake Erie to be blown into the city like a giant fan blowing feathers on someone. The pressure will be similar to that of what a Category 3 hurricane is...truly astonishing.

Didn't we have one in like 2003 and one before that in the mid 90s? I remember jumping off my roof into the snow. 

[CountDorkula]

9 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

My mother in law is already stressing as she was supposed to drive up to us in Tonawanda on Christmas Eve to spend time with us and my dad. She was stay the night and then go home late Christmas day before this storm news came up. Honestly I don't think it's going to be anything major in terms of amount of snow yet because of the possibility of high winds everyone's worried. 

We have no idea what this is going to be. We are about to experience an atmospheric pressure that to a high category three hurricane which is something Buffalo has never experienced before.
 

They are calling for 20 foot waves along Lake Erie, and potential for 15 foot snow drifts with 70+ mph winds. 

[T&C]

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...

 

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
1 to 3 feet. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph Friday and Friday
night. A rapid switch from rain to snow with sharply falling
temperatures into the teens and single digits will result in a
flash freeze on Friday. Blizzard conditions will develop Friday
afternoon lasting into Saturday night.

 

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, and Genesee counties.

 

* WHEN...From 7 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Sunday.

 

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible at times.
Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.
Very strong winds could cause extensive tree damage and numerous
power outages. The cold wind chills as low as 10 to 20 below
zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30
minutes.
Expires in 2 days.

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

Didn't we have one in like 2003 and one before that in the mid 90s? I remember jumping off my roof into the snow. 

 

We had one that dropped like 3 feet in a day, but never one that dropped 7 feet.

[Augie]

On 12/20/2022 at 9:08 PM, ExiledInIllinois said:

I think with this one it will be winds and cold.

 

Remember, only about 10" NEW SNOW fell during Blizzard of '77... BUT L.Erie froze early that year and lots of snow was sitting on the ice.  It was a ground blizzard and all the previous fallen snow blew around... That was a generational storm!

 

They just don’t make them the way they used to.  🤷‍♂️

[Big Turk]

This is just craziness...upgraded to a blizzard warning from 7am tomorrow to 7am Sunday and 30-36" of snow for Buffalo Metro area.

 

 

Edited December 22, 2022 by Big Turk

[muppy]

8 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

This is just craziness...upgraded to a blizzard warning from 7am tomorrow to 7am Sunday and 30-36" of snow for Buffalo Metro area.

 

 

the smart play is just delay your holiday travel and celebrate Christmas when it is safer to travel. No way do I want my family members out in a blizzard like this. Not worth it. BOOOOOOOOOO. The worst timing ever.

Edited December 22, 2022 by muppy

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, muppy said:

the smart play is just delay your holiday travel and celebrate Christmas when it is safer to travel. No way do I want my family members out in a blizzard like this. Not worth it. BOOOOOOOOOO. The worst timing ever.

 

Yeah we had something planned for Friday and it got postponed already...just going to chill in the house and watch the Bills game and some Xmas movies with the Fam...assuming we don't lose power.

 

Crazy to think if these snow forecasts hold, Buffalo will have almost it's entire average season's snowfall a few days after winter officially started.

Edited December 22, 2022 by Big Turk

[Philly McButterpants]

Cancelled the trip in 😞 Can someone run to the Pegasus Restaurant near the Fairgrounds and send some chicken souvlaki?

[BuffaloBill]

I live in East TN where there is supposed to be cold temps and no snow. You would think armageddon is soon to arrive.  

[LewPort71]

30 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

I live in East TN where there is supposed to be cold temps and no snow. You would think armageddon is soon to arrive.  

Here in WV, the Krogers stores are almost empty of bread, milk and eggs.

Sounds like French toast is on the menu

[CountDorkula]

Did anyone else listen to Patrick Hammer say the waves are going to crash into the shore, sending mist into the air and then the cold temperatures and wind are going to shoot that missed turned ice as shrapnel. 

[Bad Things]

It's the first day of summer down here!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just thought you'd all like to know.

😁

[muppy]

13 minutes ago, Bad Things said:

It's the first day of summer down here!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just thought you'd all like to know.

😁

That's just COLD hermano......no it's actually warm for You, cold for them 🙂

 

While here in socal is bright sunshine 60 degrees and people are wearing winter puffer jackets, Biggest weather wimps EVER

[PastaJoe]

14 minutes ago, Bad Things said:

It's the first day of summer down here!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just thought you'd all like to know.

😁

My son who lives in Boston is currently in Adelaide, Australia with his fiancé who’s from there. 

[Augie]

3 hours ago, muppy said:

the smart play is just delay your holiday travel and celebrate Christmas when it is safer to travel. No way do I want my family members out in a blizzard like this. Not worth it. BOOOOOOOOOO. The worst timing ever.

 

When our kids started having kids we realized that celebrating Christmas is best done when it is convenient to do so. We don’t rank high enough to do much of anything exactly on December 25. We will have the grandson Christmas Eve day, and the new granddaughter is in Florida at the in-laws. 

 

We will get together and celebrate the holiday and time with family when it’s convenient for everybody. On 12/25 we will probably take a meal and some things to my mom in the nursing home. First time ever for that, and it breaks my heart. But we will be glad that we can be with her. At 95 years old you have to be happy just to be with her. That will be my Christmas gift. 

 

Best of luck to all those affected by the weather. Stay warm and stay safe. 

[Fleezoid]

I think global warming was just a fad. 

[WEATHER DOT COM]

1 minute ago, Fleezoid said:

I think global warming was just a fad. 

 

oh the ignorance

 

 

Prepare for 6+ feet through Monday morning if you are between the north end of Lake Erie (Fort Erie east through Buffalo to almost Batavia) or within the first 20 miles or so of the lakeshore southwest from Buffalo to Dunkirk.

[muppy]

9 minutes ago, WEATHER DOT COM said:

 

oh the ignorance

 

 

Prepare for 6+ feet through Monday morning if you are between the north end of Lake Erie (Fort Erie east through Buffalo to almost Batavia) or within the first 20 miles or so of the lakeshore southwest from Buffalo to Dunkirk.

batavia to be somewhat unscathed is what you are seeing give or take? That's my hometown turf and family in the area

17 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

When our kids started having kids we realized that celebrating Christmas is best done when it is convenient to do so. We don’t rank high enough to do much of anything exactly on December 25. We will have the grandson Christmas Eve day, and the new granddaughter is in Florida at the in-laws. 

 

We will get together and celebrate the holiday and time with family when it’s convenient for everybody. On 12/25 we will probably take a meal and some things to my mom in the nursing home. First time ever for that, and it breaks my heart. But we will be glad that we can be with her. At 95 years old you have to be happy just to be with her. That will be my Christmas gift. 

 

Best of luck to all those affected by the weather. Stay warm and stay safe. 

Guess what hermano muppy is going to be a grandmother Finally :-)))))))))))) woooooooot!!!!!

[ExiledInIllinois]

4 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

We had one that dropped like 3 feet in a day, but never one that dropped 7 feet.

2014. November.   The Jets game that got moved was another one that dropped 7 feet. I made it in on Friday afternoon just as the end loader was finishing my father's street in S.Cheektowaga/W.Seneca. 

 

It was pretty bad. Brought the snowshoes in case we'd of had to park off main road. 

 

That was Snowvember I.  This year Snowvember II.

33 minutes ago, WEATHER DOT COM said:

 

oh the ignorance

 

 

Prepare for 6+ feet through Monday morning if you are between the north end of Lake Erie (Fort Erie east through Buffalo to almost Batavia) or within the first 20 miles or so of the lakeshore southwest from Buffalo to Dunkirk.

Well... The cold blast will freeze The Lake and shut off the snow machine. Then a ground blizzard for late January.

 

Hey! Just like 1977! 😏 

[Big Turk]

15 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

2014. November.   The Jets game that got moved was another one that dropped 7 feet. I made it in on Friday afternoon just as the end loader was finishing my father's street in S.Cheektowaga/W.Seneca. 

 

It was pretty bad. Brought the snowshoes in case we'd of had to park off main road. 

 

That was Snowvember I.  This year Snowvember II.

Well... The cold blast will freeze The Lake and shut off the snow machine. Then a ground blizzard for late January.

 

Hey! Just like 1977! 😏 

 

Yes, I know that one in 2014, I was one of the unfortunate souls that had to deal with that 7 feet. I was talking in 2003 or earlier.

[ExiledInIllinois]

17 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Yes, I know that one in 2014, I was one of the unfortunate souls that had to deal with that 7 feet. I was talking in 2003 or earlier.

I betcha we had them in SouthTowns. I remember snows well over my head as a child. Now I am a big dumb lug over 6 feet.  😏 

 

Another big blizzard was 1985. There was the one in October 2006 that dumped 4 feet. 4 feet in October with leaves still on trees is like 10 feet in February. AmeriCorps had to come in and help places like Birchfield in West Seneca. All the old trees on the street I grew up on were wiped put. Canopy totally gone today. Places like Birchfield along BFLo Creek in Ebenezer/W.Seneca looked like Nagasaki...

 

Anyway... The only reporting that got done back then was from the official station @ Airport in Cheektowaga and they are almost out of the historical, traditional SouthTowns SnowBelt.

 

BFLo averages 95" a year.

 

Southtowns and into the SoutherTier is closer to 150-200"  AVERAGE into the hills alee of The Lake.

 

219 would always close... Etc... Big snows were there, just didn't make anything of it... Avoided it, went around those microclimates 😉: @BringBackFergy

Edited December 22, 2022 by ExiledInIllinois

[Not at the table Karlos]

6 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

We had one that dropped like 3 feet in a day, but never one that dropped 7 feet.

Don't remember the exact date we think it was between 98 and 2001. Lived off como park Blvd. Dug out the sidewalk to the driveway and it was just over my dad's head(6'1") closer to the house and was higher as we got closer to road. We had tunnels to get out of snow where we jumped off the second story roof where we could stand up in and still be covered. Have pics somewhere with the date on them holding up tape measures. Iirc it was around Christmas or new years because we got a longer break than normal. 

Edited December 22, 2022 by Not at the table Karlos