Tipped Balls are becoming an issue-thoughts as to why??

[Einstein]

48 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

Let's cherry pick some positive stats.

 

Some posters inability to cope with any statistics that isn’t overtly positive is truly fascinating. A study should be done on it.

[Low Positive]

21 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I'd rather identify the problem and fix it proactively as I am sure the coaches would.

 

Really? Then why does Brady only have 1 batted ball?

I dug through the stats, and what I found is that Tom Brady's favorite play this year is a Fournette screen pass. He has 36 targets with 32 receptions and a -37 yards before the catch.  

[Dablitzkrieg]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

So if we lose the Superbowl because of a tipped ball on 4th and goal with Diggs standing wide open, still not going to care huh?

 

Just gonna chalk it up to bad luck when you knew 14 weeks ago it wasn't?

Settle down.

[ColoradoBills]

Josh Allen is a warrior and gunslinger.  If he sees a receiver open, he throws the ball.

He's not giving more attention to the DL than the open guys.  He's looking downfield not for "throwing lanes".

A few batted balls are the price you pay for his QB style.

 

I can't believe Bills fans want Josh Allen to be more conservative.

 

Let it go.  

[PrimeTime101]

7 hours ago, NewEra said:

I’d bet that one of the reasons deflections are up is more teams are looking to contain all of these mobile QBs.  

agree. its a mix. you can only have the best thing for so long before teams/defenses catch up

[JDubya76]

20 hours ago, NoSaint said:

allen is not uniquely throwing short routes at a clip that would explain 100% more than the league leader last year and an nfl record I believe.

 

either there’s some dumb luck (likely some), a blocking technique issue (likely something here too), an issue with the throwers technique (maybe but he has history of it not being an issue) or possibly something with the pairing of the route trees paired with blocking schemes (are we possibly running wrs into zones that pair with pass rushers likely being in the way)

All of the above. 
 

Dumb Luck; absolutely.

 

Blocking; I haven’t noticed a lot of cut blocks this year. O-line is fighting for their lives on a game by game basis. 

 

Gameplan/Scheme; Allen is noticeably taking shorter throws. I hesitate to say check downs, let’s just say short throws for him.

 

Pace; the ball is coming out faster to the shorter routes. Less time to manipulate the coverage with motion within the pocket.

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

21 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Allen seems to be having a lot of tipped balls

 

Did this happen again when he hurdled Justin Reid? 

[BuffaloBillyG]

This issue is obviously the fault of a certain LBer that shall not be named but wears #49. The only way to solve this ongoing problem is to trade for CMC, sign OBJ and have them show the renderings for the new stadium at their intro presser. 

[NoSaint]

39 minutes ago, JDubya76 said:

All of the above. 
 

Dumb Luck; absolutely.

 

Blocking; I haven’t noticed a lot of cut blocks this year. O-line is fighting for their lives on a game by game basis. 

 

Gameplan/Scheme; Allen is noticeably taking shorter throws. I hesitate to say check downs, let’s just say short throws for him.

 

Pace; the ball is coming out faster to the shorter routes. Less time to manipulate the coverage with motion within the pocket.

 

i dont think the last two are so pronounced compared to his peers to account for a record breaking pace unless you are also going to say it’s something he isn’t executing as well as his peers do as well. Not to mention his stature already lends himself to being better than most of his peers at avoiding tips naturally. 
 

clearly he’s not throwing a higher percentage of those timing throws than any qb has ever thrown. My gut says it’s not even a percentage that’s of any note at all.

[Nextmanup]

5 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Some posters inability to cope with any statistics that isn’t overtly positive is truly fascinating. A study should be done on it.

Many, if not most, folks here just want to feel good, not objectively analyze the team.

 

Many are seemingly unable to view things objectively.  I always wonder how this works for them in their personal lives.

 

Confronting reality is a good thing, and utterly necessary for success in anything.

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

9 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Many, if not most, folks here just want to feel good, not objectively analyze the team.

 

Many are seemingly unable to view things objectively.  I always wonder how this works for them in their personal lives.

 

Confronting reality is a good thing, and utterly necessary for success in anything.

 

 

 

I will repeat myself.  Don't you think that Josh Allen is a QB that pushes his talent and game to the limit?

It seems to me that his throws into tight windows that open and close so fast it's unlike anything most of us have ever seen.

He is not playing conservative with his reads and throws.  He trusts his arm.  

 

He can certainly bring down the number of batted balls by playing it cautious.  He could always just throw the ball away like so many other

QBs.  He doesn't, and if some batted balls are the consequences, I'm glad to accept them.

[JDubya76]

25 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

i dont think the last two are so pronounced compared to his peers to account for a record breaking pace unless you are also going to say it’s something he isn’t executing as well as his peers do as well. Not to mention his stature already lends himself to being better than most of his peers at avoiding tips naturally. 
 

clearly he’s not throwing a higher percentage of those timing throws than any qb has ever thrown. My gut says it’s not even a percentage that’s of any note at all.

I thought about that before posting, the way I saw it is that he’s not throwing more than any other QB but he is throwing them more than he did previously. At least that’s what it seems like to me without researching the numbers.

[WotAGuy]

When I read the thread title, my first thought was: I’m 63, is this something I need to be worried about?  ‘Tipped balls’ sounds painful. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

It’s interesting that Herbert at 6,6” with an arm just as lively as Allen’s has been near the top of the league in tipped passes two years running now. 
 

I do feel like there was one game where Allen had like 4 or 5 tipped balls  this year. Has he had a game without any? How many did he have last week? 
 

I have searched the advanced oasis game logs but have not seen the tipped balls listed in the individual game logs.

[JDubya76]

1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Did this happen again when he hurdled Justin Reid? 

Just the tip

[NoSaint]

25 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I will repeat myself.  Don't you think that Josh Allen is a QB that pushes his talent and game to the limit?

It seems to me that his throws into tight windows that open and close so fast it's unlike anything most of us have ever seen.

He is not playing conservative with his reads and throws.  He trusts his arm.  

 

He can certainly bring down the number of batted balls by playing it cautious.  He could always just throw the ball away like so many other

QBs.  He doesn't, and if some batted balls are the consequences, I'm glad to accept them.

hell, if we are to accept that answer I would rather he launch some more aggressive downfield passes instead of short ones. Lower risk and higher reward than setting the tip ball record on 5 yard slants because he’s so aggressive. 

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

hell, if we are to accept that answer I would rather he launch some more aggressive downfield passes instead of short ones. Lower risk and higher reward than setting the tip ball record on 5 yard slants because he’s so aggressive. 

 

You don't have to accept anything I say.  The short passes are part of the scheme that he follows from his OC.

I'll try to put it another way.  I do not see one aspect of Josh Allen QB play that he is "conservative" or not trusting his skills.

Why should passing through the DL be the only one?  

 

I went to look for the QB stats for how many times this season every QB threw the ball away, in numbers and percentage.

I would think Josh was pretty low in that percentage.  I couldn't find it anywhere.  If anyone has those stats, I would like to see them.

 

If he didn't push his limits, we wouldn't see the jaw dropping plays we constantly see. 

IMO.

[HoofHearted]

22 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Allen seems to be having a lot of tipped balls this year from watching the games and looking at the numbers it's significantly more than last year.

 

He is tied for the league lead with 12 batted balls with Mayfield who has to field questions as to why he was having so many. Granted Allen has 80+ more attempts but still, compared to last year even, it's significantly more.

 

Herbert led the NFL with 17 last season, Allen had the second most at 16. Currently he is on pace to have 34 which would be an outrageous number.

 

So I am wondering if there is something that is causing this that anyone has noticed? Is it him getting rid of the balls quicker? The shorter throws he is making more regularly? Bad luck? DLinemen stopping a rush to try and bat the ball down more?

 

Curious as to if Allen, Dorsey or McD will start getting asked about this if the media notices...

 

I can't find anything concrete on this but it appears Allen may be on pace to set a new batted balls record.  I read an article from late October of 2018 that talked about how Cousins was on pace for 32 that year with the previous record being 23 in 2006. I don't have any final tally on Cousins for that year.

 

Can't find the final numbers for 2018, but 2019-2021, the highest is Baker with 20 in 2019. 

 

Allen's numbers:

 

2019: 10

2020: 4

2021: 16

2022: 12(thru 6 games)

 

 

Defenses are making a concerted effort this year more than I've seen in years past of ensuring they establish the box. You saw this time and time again this past week with KC, but it's been happening all year long. The contain players (outside rusher) have been purposefully setting a really high box as to not allow Allen the opportunity to escape outside the pocket. These rushers have been rushing more of a contain path (more vertical upfield) than a true pass rush angle would put you in to collapse the pocket. Because of this most teams are making their Low Box players (any interior rusher) an automatic low gear player. Essentially telling those guys to try and push to collapse the interior of the pocket, but not working true pass rush moves until Allen steps up within the pocket. With these interior rushers essentially being read players at this point there are able to have clear line of sight to Allen and put themselves in a more advantageous position to allow them to get hands on low trajectory balls.

 

There were multiple times in the KC game Allen wanted to get outside the pocket, but because the high box player did such a good job of setting the box Allen could only step back up into the pocket, and was forced to deliver a ball from within it.

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Did this happen again when he hurdled Justin Reid? 

 

That is some serious commitment and motivation!  😱

 

 

We throw more than we ever have. Did Josh throw more than 60 passes vs Miami?  The number of tips goes up as the number of passes goes up. On a percentage basis, it’s probably a bit more like teams want to contain Josh. Stay in your lane and get your arms up. That’s not a terrible thing if they have to be very, very careful rushing our QB. 

[Mikie2times]

I certainly think something exists with this, but like many have said, not just one thing. He's only leaving the pocket when he has to, he's throwing more short passes, and dealing with more of a contained rush to offset his scrambling. That is my guess. I don't see lineman flying past him rushing recklessly as much as I used to and he really hasn't had many of his trademark sprint to the last inch of turf and throw a rope down the sideline plays. He's been predominantly in the pocket. Then when you look at his core throwing motion, it shrinks him considerably vs an over the top thrower, but do we care? I certainly don't. 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, HoofHearted said:

 

Defenses are making a concerted effort this year more than I've seen in years past of ensuring they establish the box. You saw this time and time again this past week with KC, but it's been happening all year long. The contain players (outside rusher) have been purposefully setting a really high box as to not allow Allen the opportunity to escape outside the pocket. These rushers have been rushing more of a contain path (more vertical upfield) than a true pass rush angle would put you in to collapse the pocket. Because of this most teams are making their Low Box players (any interior rusher) an automatic low gear player. Essentially telling those guys to try and push to collapse the interior of the pocket, but not working true pass rush moves until Allen steps up within the pocket. With these interior rushers essentially being read players at this point there are able to have clear line of sight to Allen and put themselves in a more advantageous position to allow them to get hands on low trajectory balls.

 

There were multiple times in the KC game Allen wanted to get outside the pocket, but because the high box player did such a good job of setting the box Allen could only step back up into the pocket, and was forced to deliver a ball from within it.

 

The scary thing for defenses must be that Allen would have likely panicked earlier in his career and ran into pressure or made a bad throw, now he simply just delivers a strike and moves the chains or dumps it down for 5-10 yards.

 

Must be super frustrating for DCs to play against him. No matter what you call you are more likely to be wrong than right against him.

 

I mean I guess that makes sense in regards to the tipped passes, but Allen can't be the only player in the NFL they do this against can he? Other QBs aren't having the same tipped ball issues.

Edited October 20, 2022 by Big Turk

[Shaw66]

11 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Again, most players have 4-6 tips, and in a combined 17 starts with Goff, Mariota and Brady they have 1 tipped ball between them on 570 attempts.  Herbert, last years leader with 17 has 9, 3 behind Allen and Mayfield.

 

Maybe some of these points are valid, but 12 tipped balls is too many no matter what the reason is, IMO.  He is on pace to shatter the NFL record of 23 set in 2006 with 34.

 

Could you imagine if a tipped ball ends up costing us a Super Bowl with Diggs wide open in the endzone?

Thanks for replying.  I hadn't focused very well on the numbers you or others had presented earlier.   I agree, those numbers really are outliers.  

 

I'd guess it's happening to Allen because teams are doing to him what I described that many teams are doing to all mobile QBS:   They're asking their d linemen to play more of a containment game, rushing within their lanes, going after sacks less aggressively and making it difficult for the QB to find running lanes.  Because they aren't getting to the QB as effectively doing that, they're told to make sure that their hands are up. 

 

So why is impacting Allen more than the others?   Well, maybe it's because the shorter QBs who are mobile always have had to worry about batted balls, because they couldn't see over the linemen - they've already developed the ability to find windows to throw the ball through.  Brees was masterful at it, Wilson had to do it, and it's probably the case that Murray, Jackson and Mahomes all have found it necessary from day one in the NFL to do it.   Allen didn't have to, because he could see over the line.  Now that d lines are changing their rushing technique and getting their hands up more often, Allen will have to make the same adjustment the others already have made.   Just a hunch.   

 

Whatever the cause, with Allen being such an outlier I'm sure that the coaches and Allen are addressing it. 

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

11 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Maybe some of these points are valid, but 12 tipped balls is too many no matter what the reason is, IMO.  He is on pace to shatter the NFL record of 23 set in 2006 with 34.

Breaking the NFL record for tipped passes? Heck, I am worried that at this pace, sometime soon, EVERY SINGLE PASS Allen attempts will be tipped. Imagine how bad that will be for his completion %.  

[HoofHearted]

11 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

The scary thing for defenses must be that Allen would have likely panicked earlier in his career and ran into pressure or made a bad throw, now he simply just delivers a strike and moves the chains or dumps it down for 5-10 yards.

 

Must be super frustrating for DCs to play against him. No matter what you call you are more likely to be wrong than right against him.

 

I mean I guess that makes sense in regards to the tipped passes, but Allen can't be the only player in the NFL they do this against can he? Other QBs aren't having the same tipped ball issues.

 

No, there's definitely other mobile QBs who teams actively try to contain within the pocket. The low box technique is what stands out most with how teams are playing Allen specifically. Teams are so afraid to give up easy rush lanes to him that they are essentially just maintaining the pocket and waiting for Allen to make a decision before they work pass rush moves. It worked really well for KC. Baltimore tried to do the same type of thing from what I recall when they were only rushing four as well.

[ExiledInIllinois]

He's more accurate now.  Throwing in tighter windows.

 

=

 

More tips. 

[Solomon Grundy]

I HATE TIPPED BALLS 😎

[Big Turk]

Allen has only had 2 since week 6, having 14 for the year now....but it has come at a cost.  

 

It seems they are not throwing over the middle hardly at all, and I believe this may be part of the reason as to why.  Allen was having a lot of tips ion the middle of the line during the first 6 weeks, Dorsey has seemingly eliminated almost all throws to the middle of the field since then other than checkdowns, and it has hurt the offense, IMO.  Defenses know the Bills are basically only using the area from the numbers and outside it.

 

Need to get back to using the whole field.

 

[LabattBlue]

49 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Allen has only had 2 since week 6, having 14 for the year now....but it has come at a cost.  

 

It seems they are not throwing over the middle hardly at all, and I believe this may be part of the reason as to why.  Allen was having a lot of tips ion the middle of the line during the first 6 weeks, Dorsey has seemingly eliminated almost all throws to the middle of the field since then other than checkdowns, and it has hurt the offense, IMO.  Defenses know the Bills are basically only using the area from the numbers and outside it.

 

Need to get back to using the whole field.

 

Makes sense, and the lack of using the whole field could definitely be causing problems on offense.