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Warren Sharp fades the Bills - do they even get to 12 wins this year?


YoloinOhio
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1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

11-6 with this years schedule is not unreasonable.  The #1 defense was a farce last year and it showed against KC. It was a product of the QBs they played. But to Beane's credit he at least on paper upgraded the DL and added a top rookie corner. I'd be happier if they signed Haden as well.

12-5 or 13-4  seems like a more likely outcome than 11-6 but I would not be shocked if they lost 6 games. A lot will be determined how they handle the pressure of the first six games.

I think if Tre was behind schedule or Elam was struggling,  Haden would make sense but I'm sure Haden wants to start somewhere and even if Tre misses a few games , Elam , Dane and Taron will be fine 

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Just now, JerseyBills said:

I think if Tre was behind schedule or Elam was struggling,  Haden would make sense but I'm sure Haden wants to start somewhere and even if Tre misses a few games , Elam , Dane and Taron will be fine 

 

Still think that even if White is back at the start of the season or shortly after he's not going to be the same player this year as injuries like this take a good full year to return to form.

 

Hence the reason a quality veteran DB should still be this team's main priority right now.

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11 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

Sharp is raising valid points that all realistic fans should be concerned about entering the 2022 campaign:

 

- Team was only 11-6 last year despite facing one of the easiest schedules ever in NFL history. They were also 3-5 at one point during mid season.

- Only 2 wins against playoff teams last year including KC early in the season when they were in 'figure it out mode' and NE late in the season after they peaked

- 0-6 in one score games including playoffs

- #1 defense was highly misleading because of aforementioned schedule and QB's faced

-McD's historical W/L record against playoff teams in regular season

 

With that said, the Bills did essentially retool their entire defensive line once again to be able to counter a much more difficult schedule this year in terms of opposing QB's. They also addressed other key areas of need in G, DB, RB, etc.

 

But still think at the end of the day getting #1 overall seed in AFC and 13+ wins like some of these projections indicate aren't probably as realistic as some believe.

 

 

From an analystics perspective, the bolded is reason for optimism for 2022.  Most teams average out at roughly 50/50 in one-score games over time.  Regression to the mean would suggest we're more likely to be something like 3-3 in one score games this year - or 5-3, or 2-4, or 4-3, or whatever.  Point is, it's unlikely we'd go winless 2 years in a row.

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They don't have to get to 12 wins.  8 playoff teams last year did not get to 12 wins.  Cinci was in the Super Bowl in a close game and only got 10 wins.  It doesnt matter.  

1 hour ago, JoPoy88 said:

Yeah you lose me talking about strength of schedule. SoS doesn’t track year to year to any consistency. I know he’s saying retroactively we had the easiest schedule but that still means next to nothing and it certainly isn’t predictive of what’s going to happen this year.

 

his mustache does look ridiculous. Looks like nate geary (not a compliment.)

 

Every year we hear about how much tougher our schedule is.  It doesnt matter.

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3 minutes ago, Cash said:

 

From an analystics perspective, the bolded is reason for optimism for 2022.  Most teams average out at roughly 50/50 in one-score games over time.  Regression to the mean would suggest we're more likely to be something like 3-3 in one score games this year - or 5-3, or 2-4, or 4-3, or whatever.  Point is, it's unlikely we'd go winless 2 years in a row.

 

I agree with this also, Bills were just a really weird team last year with every single win being by 10+ points and every loss except for the Colts game being within one score.  Probably a good bet they don't have nearly as many blowout type wins this year either.

 

Sadly though the analytics also said that teams that had the same DVOA as the Bills last year went on to win the SB and off course that didn't happen and the Bills own the distinction of being the only team in the NFL history to fail in that regard.

5 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

They don't have to get to 12 wins.  8 playoff teams last year did not get to 12 wins.  Cinci was in the Super Bowl in a close game and only got 10 wins.  It doesnt matter.  

 

Only problem with this is if you want this team to have a realistic shot at the SB or have the season end in the same fashion as previous years.

 

McD is 0-4 on the road in the playoffs and history has shown he's not good enough to get over that hump. However to his credit he's also 3-0 at home in the playoffs and that's why it's crucial this team somehow figures out how to play consistent football all  year and secure the #1 overall seed in the AFC.

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We lost a few stupid games last year...jags, steelers, pats. That cannot happen this year. You can have losses when you're this good but they should be against the playoff squads. We got deeper on o line and d line two areas we struggled last year with. 

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4 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

I agree with this also, Bills were just a really weird team last year with every single win being by 10+ points and every loss except for the Colts game being within one score.  Probably a good bet they don't have nearly as many blowout type wins this year either.

 

Sadly though the analytics also said that teams that had the same DVOA as the Bills last year went on to win the SB and off course that didn't happen and the Bills own the distinction of being the only team in the NFL history to fail in that regard.

 

Only problem with this is if you want this team to have a realistic shot at the SB or have the season end in the same fashion as previous years.

 

McD is 0-4 on the road in the playoffs and history has shown he's not good enough to get over that hump. However to his credit he's also 3-0 at home in the playoffs and that's why it's crucial this team somehow figures out how to play consistent football all  year and secure the #1 overall seed in the AFC.

 

Only problem with this is you are a negative troll that looks for every excuse in the world on why the Bills can't or won't.  You are a "concerned" fear monger. History don't mean jack doodoo. I will enjoy the season regardless of what happens.  In the meantime you will be posting all year about "concern" for the Jets and Miami and the Pats and whatever else just like you do every season and just like I do every season, I will call you out on your bull####.

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My goodness the Bills had basically two glaring weaknesses one..being to dependent on Josh so they went out and added the starting tailback of the national champions…two the couldn’t rush the passer so they went out and added essentially the Mariano Rivera of defensive ends….if they get through the first six games 4-2 they win 12 games by the middle of December easy 

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His take seems completely reasonable to me. I want the Bills to do much better than this, but I can't deny they have not always lived up to expectations.

 

To say nothing of the possibility of injury affecting the season. 

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52 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

They don't have to get to 12 wins.  8 playoff teams last year did not get to 12 wins.  Cinci was in the Super Bowl in a close game and only got 10 wins.  It doesnt matter.  

 

Every year we hear about how much tougher our schedule is.  It doesnt matter.

They’ve been playing a 1st place schedule now for a couple years so it’s going to be continue to be that way. Getting the rams was bad luck with the 17th game.

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3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

They’ve been playing a 1st place schedule now for a couple years so it’s going to be continue to be that way. Getting the rams was bad luck with the 17th game.

 

Bad luck for the Rams.....

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2 hours ago, extrahammer said:

seems like this guy's who schtick is bad mustaches and bad takes

he's my favorite listen/read of all NFL people. has worked for bunch of NFL teams as consultant, including the Bills.. I remember him being one of many to champion some strategies we use or have used more than others, such as throwing on 1st and 2nd down. here is one write up from last year:

 

https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/article/sharp-team-previews/buffalo-precipice-greatness

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1 hour ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Still think that even if White is back at the start of the season or shortly after he's not going to be the same player this year as injuries like this take a good full year to return to form.

 

Hence the reason a quality veteran DB should still be this team's main priority right now.

That's not the case with everyone. It really is a player to player situation.  Even in other sports like basketball, some guys are fine after 9 months. Some are never the same.  Tre is in his prime and a very hard worker with no real injury concerns besides this. I think he'll bounce back just fine and playing by early October at the latest

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3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

My expectations aren’t in the clouds like some but I do take exception to the negative connotation of only winning 4 games where they didn’t win the turnover battle. And? Isn’t it normal to lose the game if you lose the turnover battle?

When I re-read Sharp’s tweet, I think he’s saying that the Bills overly rely on having to win the turnover battle to win games, but I agree with you that teams that do win the TO battle win 70% of the time, anyway, so I’m not sure why it’s a negative in his eyes either. 

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