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Warren Sharp fades the Bills - do they even get to 12 wins this year?


YoloinOhio
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3 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:

I like Warren Sharp, but this seems like fishing for clicks

 

That's pretty much all it is, part of his job is producing content. He's a numbers guy as far as I've seen, he's made some decent points but this one...yeah the schedule is tougher but I dunno, I honestly think they're good enough to hang with anyone. 

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9 minutes ago, Nineforty said:

he's my favorite listen/read of all NFL people. has worked for bunch of NFL teams as consultant, including the Bills.. I remember him being one of many to champion some strategies we use or have used more than others, such as throwing on 1st and 2nd down. here is one write up from last year:

 

https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/article/sharp-team-previews/buffalo-precipice-greatness

 

Are you trying to say the mustache isn't a schtick? Because it is a schtick. 

 

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It's not a crazy take.  Especially if we go 4-2 in the division.

 

We going 9-2 vs everyone else if that happens?

 

And it's fine.  Because 13-4 might be the absolute best case for the 1 seed.

 

Personally I think the AFC 1 seed will be 12-5.  Only teams with the best chance to top that are the Bills and Colts.

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hes not wrong though.  you may not like what hes pointing out,  fact remains,  hes throwing truth out there.    its a rough schedule this season,  the AFC is going to be a bloodbath,  and we play a number of very good teams.    really have to sweep the AFCE this year,  we need homefield throughout.   i never want to have to play another playoff game at Arrowhead,  ever!!!

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It’s very reasonable to question if the Bills can have the success they are expected to have.  The number 1 D rating last year was a joke.  IIRC they only beat 2 teams that weren’t playing a rookie or back-up QB the whole season.  The schedule was soft and they did take advantage of it. This year won’t be as easy.   Hopefully, the DL is improved and we see some steps taken by Groot as well.  Once Tre is back the secondary should be improved.  There was a reasonable amount of turnover on the O too, so there’s no guarantees of anything.

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Its amazing to me how douchebags like this think they are intelligent about football and people really care what they think. Nobody gives a damn about your opinion, or your loser stats site.

 

Piss off.

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Realistically given that I believe Tre starts on IL and won't be back till - I'm saying Sunday night v Packers end of October - 

 

No one should panic if the season plays out like this:

 

We lose week 1.

 

Start the year 3-3.

 

New pieces, New OC, young CBs.....might be an adjustment period.  

 

 

 

But by week 8 vs Green Bay after a week 7 bye....

 

Things start to click

 

Dorsey settles in as OC

 

Tre gets better every week 

 

Elam looks like a star

 

The D and O lines gel again.

 

Gabe Davis breakout in full effect.  

 

We go 9-2 down the stretch (we could win all 11 - I fear no team with this group fully healthy. 

 

Steam roll into the 1 seed at 12-5 (exact record I think wins the 1 seed).  

 

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All you fans who are getting butthurt have to stop being such homers.  His analysis is actually pretty sound.  The AFC is absolutely loaded.  I still like the Bills chances but their may have never been a tougher season in the history of the AFC to obtain 12 wins than the upcoming one.  Furthermore, it seems he is speaking more on the betting side of things and the value the Bills offer in sportsbooks, he is not trashing on our teams talent.

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There are two major flaws in his logic:

 

1 - It was pretty clear that the 2021 Bills were sleepwalking through the middle part of the season after beating the Chiefs (and losing to to the titans the way they did), and didn't really wake up until after that first half in Tampa Bay. 

 

2 - They are a better team this year. Josh has more experience, the offense has more speed, the o line and d line is better, and the corners are better once Tre is healthy.

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Every year we have the hardest schedule going in. Then, in part due to the Bills beating up on teams, they say we had the easiest schedule. Really, these are petty arguments made in hindsight. We will play the teams on our schedule. No team is ever a cakewalk. In the end we'll make the playoffs and see where we go from there.

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1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

Realistically given that I believe Tre starts on IL and won't be back till - I'm saying Sunday night v Packers end of October - 

 

No one should panic if the season plays out like this:

 

We lose week 1.

 

Start the year 3-3.

 

New pieces, New OC, young CBs.....might be an adjustment period.  

 

 

 

But by week 8 vs Green Bay after a week 7 bye....

 

Things start to click

 

Dorsey settles in as OC

 

Tre gets better every week 

 

Elam looks like a star

 

The D and O lines gel again.

 

Gabe Davis breakout in full effect.  

 

We go 9-2 down the stretch (we could win all 11 - I fear no team with this group fully healthy. 

 

Steam roll into the 1 seed at 12-5 (exact record I think wins the 1 seed).  

 

I won’t panic if we start 3-3 but I don’t see it happening. The energy at so-fi in week one is going to be amazing with their unfolding of banners, etc. re: the SB win… and it’s going to take time and the Bills will have to stand there and take it but if they can contain their energy for the game we should win it. The rams have had as many changes as we have had and so I think that cancels out.

We have the better QB, I’d say for week one just about everything else cancels out. If I was forced to say who has the better unit…

QB - Bills , OL - tie if our starting five is there maybe we have the better line… WR - Tie, RB with Cook added a tie again. LOL, it really is that tight. The rams lost their best OL and two starters overall. They’re not the team that won the SB at all…. They lost their NT and Von so I say Tie at DL as well…. LB - I will go with a tie again… LOL, they have Bobby Wagner so I’ll say tie again. The secondary is interesting. Will Tre play? Will Elam choke? With all the unknown I will go tie again but I like our secondary better. Both overall starters and depth. Their home-field advantage, like I said is going to be extra big, but if Josh plays like last year we’re going to win….

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1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Bills have plenty of question marks. They shouldn’t be clear favorites. They should be in the conversation. 

While I think that is kind of true, I also think if you had to pick a best, you’d pick the Bills….

I think mainly because we have the best player at the most important position in Josh Allen.

We have five solid starters on the OL but our depth is very questionable….This is our biggest weakness I think.

We are solid in the weapons department but an OBJ signing would give us an A+ And this means we probably don’t have an A+ without him. If Khalil Shakir can rest Diggs and Davis we’re close to an A….

DL - Too many unknowns at this point but the worse we have here is adequate I think. That’s the floor and the ceiling is very good.

Von is a big time addition. Ed is finally a quality player. We improved the one-tech position with JJ and the DT named Tim. This is a big change for the positive. Groot and Basham are no longer rookies and AJ is finding his way too, imho… Shaq and Jordan provide excellent depth…. So the questions are how is Leslie going to play Von? The rest of the DL? How good exactly are all our young players? And of course, injuries will factor in….

I like our LBs …. Especially behind an improved DL…and in front of a very improved secondary. Kaiir is going to be very solid, we just don’t know exactly when. LOL, he could be matched-up one on one with Robinson in week one. LOL, and I don’t know if he ever covered anybody like that before? There’s no one really like that on the Bills. He’s huge! But Elam should match up with him very well athletically. We probably throw a safety over Kupp no matter who plays on most downs. TJ will matchup with Jefferson. Those are great matchups for both squads. Just a show! Our secondary if it stays relatively healthy this year will be talked about as the best in the NFL this year. Especially if theDL turns out to be very good.

So not only do we have the best player, it very well could be that we really don’t have any weaknesses as well. And brother, that’s phenomenal and I think, should be the reason why we are ranked #1….

 

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6 hours ago, gobills404 said:

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/2021-nfl-regular-season-schedule-grid-strength-of-schedule/amp/
 

HIS OWN WEBSITE has the bills with the 9th easiest schedule last year. This tool is just trying to get angry clicks from bills fans.

 

That grid was published before the season started based on projected win totals. The Bills were 9th in their model. Retroactively -- based on actual win totals -- the Bills ended up 1st. 

 

If I were a betting man, I'd take the over on the Bills' win total this year. But I haven't forgotten that we were 7-6 at one point last year after losses to the Steelers and Jaguars and getting throttled by the Colts. We got better over the off-season but so did nearly every other team in the AFC. 

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