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Warren Sharp fades the Bills - do they even get to 12 wins this year?


YoloinOhio
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10 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

My expectations aren’t in the clouds like some but I do take exception to the negative connotation of only winning 4 games where they didn’t win the turnover battle. And? Isn’t it normal to lose the game if you lose the turnover battle?

Agreed. Winning four games in that manner is an accomplishment.  The fact they had so many games with a negative turnover margin is concerning.  The pass rush should be better and that generally leads to more turnovers. And Josh needs to clean up the INTs.

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28 minutes ago, Last Guy on the Bench said:

He's not saying anything unreasonable.

 

I'm optimistic. When the Bills are clicking they can crush anyone on offense. And I think the defense will be better this year with the new additions.

 

But they did beat up on a lot of bad QBs last year. And the offense went to sleep at times.

 

The guy wasn't saying anything ridiculous. We might very well lose a game or two more in the division than we have been lately. And we have lots of other tough games.

 

Having said that . . .  20-0! Can't wait!

 

I think the biggest issue last year was the Bills were not always mentally prepared to take every teams best shot and it cost them some games. They were a little too cocky and over-confident at times.  I think the we se the team from the 2nd half of the TB game onwards this year. They will be out for blood.

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2 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

If the BIlls go 11-6, they still would make the playoffs and probably win the division. 

 

Would it be enough to get the #1 seed is the question?

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24 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

11-6 with this years schedule is not unreasonable.  The #1 defense was a farce last year and it showed against KC. It was a product of the QBs they played. But to Beane's credit he at least on paper upgraded the DL and added a top rookie corner. I'd be happier if they signed Haden as well.

12-5 or 13-4  seems like a more likely outcome than 11-6 but I would not be shocked if they lost 6 games. A lot will be determined how they handle the pressure of the first six games.

 

Right - its not like we touted #1 defense and did nothing.  They get Tre back, elam - and a completely remade front 4.  

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Just now, NickelCity said:

I'm not predicting 1st seed considering our schedule and OLine depth. Winning the division is my expectation. 

 

At this point the expectations have to be higher. Just making the playoffs and winning the division isn't good enough anymore. They need to make a run and get to the Super Bowl. I realize injuries can happen that can ruin a season but that is something all teams face. This team is good enough to win the Super Bowl. 

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Just now, Greg S said:

 

At this point the expectations have to be higher. Just making the playoffs and winning the division isn't good enough anymore. They need to make a run and get to the Super Bowl. I realize injuries can happen that can ruin a season but that is something all teams face. This team is good enough to win the Super Bowl. 

 

Of course. We should have won it last year and we are smack dab in our window to win it all. 

 

I just don't think we'll get the 1 seed after the regular season.

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Yeah you lose me talking about strength of schedule. SoS doesn’t track year to year to any consistency. I know he’s saying retroactively we had the easiest schedule but that still means next to nothing and it certainly isn’t predictive of what’s going to happen this year.

 

his mustache does look ridiculous. Looks like nate geary (not a compliment.)

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4 minutes ago, NickelCity said:

 

Of course. We should have won it last year and we are smack dab in our window to win it all. 

 

I just don't think we'll get the 1 seed after the regular season.

 

The west and north should beat itself up. The Colts could rack up a lot of wins given that their division isn't that tough. 

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1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

Warren Sharpie has been sniffing the markers a tad too much

 

if you are a division winner you will be playing 5 playoff teams from the year before.  You can’t control who you play.  It’s already pre decided based on who you play.

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bit of click bait, but some good points made.  the bills really did coast a bit last season, weren't we 7-6 at one point w a loss to the jags and a blowout loss to indy?

 

i think there are fair concerns about the team, but to me, this year isn't going to be a let down.  they had their let downs last year, and managed to overcome.  this season there is more hunger and focus, and i honestly think the OL set up and a more balanced approach on O is going to set the team up to avoid losses like the pittz and jags games.  reverse those two and we walk to the first seed last season.

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39 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said:

Yeah you lose me talking about strength of schedule. SoS doesn’t track year to year to any consistency. I know he’s saying retroactively we had the easiest schedule but that still means next to nothing and it certainly isn’t predictive of what’s going to happen this year.

 

his mustache does look ridiculous. Looks like nate geary (not a compliment.)

This, plus the likelihood that the Bills go 0-6 in one score games again is about as low as can be.

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I think the Bills have done just about everything that they can to build a great team and I think that they will be very good.  Still, the AFC is LOADED and while Josh Allen is outstanding, arguments can be made that others are his equal or close including: Mahommes, Watson, Burrow, Wilson, Herbert and Rogers.  I am sure that I am forgetting some, but right there are 6 opponents where the Bills would have no significant advantage at QB.

 

Of course, the full roster matters and injuries can throw a wrench into any team's season.  


In my view, the Bills are very good, but it will take a tremendous run and some luck to emerge from the AFC and win the SB.

 

 

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Sharp is raising valid points that all realistic fans should be concerned about entering the 2022 campaign:

 

- Team was only 11-6 last year despite facing one of the easiest schedules ever in NFL history. They were also 3-5 at one point during mid season.

- Only 2 wins against playoff teams last year including KC early in the season when they were in 'figure it out mode' and NE late in the season after they peaked

- 0-6 in one score games including playoffs

- #1 defense was highly misleading because of aforementioned schedule and QB's faced

-McD's historical W/L record against playoff teams in regular season

 

With that said, the Bills did essentially retool their entire defensive line once again to be able to counter a much more difficult schedule this year in terms of opposing QB's. They also addressed other key areas of need in G, DB, RB, etc.

 

But still think at the end of the day getting #1 overall seed in AFC and 13+ wins like some of these projections indicate aren't probably as realistic as some believe.

 

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