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Allen still is fairly significantly better on the Road than at Home. Splits don't lie. Thoughts as to why.


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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

The weather

 

 

Yeah it's the weather, IMO.

 

Most of the poor weather conditions that the Bills face are at home.

 

2020 was milder than most seasons and 2021 was the worst weather season the Bills have had to deal with since at least 1997.

 

But this has been going on forever..........not uncommon to see bad passing offense at Highmark and then for the Bills to go on the road to Miami or somewhere else without wind and look like a totally different team.

 

It's also of note though, IMO,  that the field at Highmark is crowned noticeably more than other fields I've been to.

 

When you sit at field level it's very noticeable and I've always felt it's made accuracy on sideline throws a bit more difficult because the QB is basically throwing downhill outside the numbers rather than on a flat plane.    

 

 

Edited by BADOLBILZ
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1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

You kid (I hope), but at the Titans game IN NASHVILLE I was surprised how loud it was when we were on offense since it felt like it was more Bills fans than Titans fans. I realize the entire row behind me is in Bills gear making as much noise as possible when we were on offense, especially 3rd downs. We had to have a little talk. They thought just making noise was the point. Ugh…..

 

That was the same crowd of people with one guy who started patting me on the head whenever anything good happened. He was more drunk than myself, and I’m pretty easy going. Late in the game he said “Hey! Your hair is all wet!”. I said “I know, you keep spilling beer on me!”.  😂

 

As for Josh home and away, it’s not that simple. You have to account for weather first and most obviously. We have had some INSANE weather games recently, but there are so many other factors. The quality of the opponent, the game situation (up or down early?), who has more injuries on either side of the ball (did we have a couple WR hurt at home, or are they missing some DB’s on the road?), game plan (they are the worst run defense in the league), etc. Every game is unique and I think it’s far too soon to draw any conclusions. Hopefully Sugar High Josh (it’s a real thing to some degree IMO) learns to control that energy and use it in a productive way.  

 

 

.

Agree 100%  !!! 

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Posted (edited)

Just a wild guess but my first thought is its because on average he has to do more on the road to win. I' m thinking the Bills probably trail more and are in closer games on the road, where Allen is forced to throw more down the field and be more aggressive.

  That all i got.

p.s. as mentioned, the weather later in the season probably explains a lot of it as well.

Edited by Turk71
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59 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah it's the weather, IMO.

 

Most of the poor weather conditions that the Bills face are at home.

 

2020 was milder than most seasons and 2021 was the worst weather season the Bills have had to deal with since at least 1997.

 

But this has been going on forever..........not uncommon to see bad passing offense at Highmark and then for the Bills to go on the road to Miami or somewhere else without wind and look like a totally different team.

 

It's also of note though, IMO,  that the field at Highmark is crowned noticeably more than other fields I've been to.

 

When you sit at field level it's very noticeable and I've always felt it's made accuracy on sideline throws a bit more difficult because the QB is basically throwing downhill outside the numbers rather than on a flat plane.    

 

 


I think the OP should be obligated to bring us stats normalized by temperature, precipitation and crowning. 
 

that said, I’d guess that in these small samples it’s less about location and more about other variables. 

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4 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

So if you are serious in asking about the split - look to the weather.  Don’t try to pawn off the difference as some type of hype related crap - because the higher the pressure - the better he has played both at home and on the road.


Facts! He definitely underperformed in the low pressure game against the Jags. I remember thinking he would have played much better against a much better team. I really feel he has learned from that and it won’t be an issue moving forward.

 

Random: Not only did we FINALLY find a true franchise QB after our unprecedented wait…we really have a guy at the helm whose ceiling is realistically 🐐
 

I get how the OP could feel this way. His theory wasn’t some unfounded tin foil hat situation. But end of the day we know Josh can perform great in ANY arena when necessary and he is still a work in progress which is both exciting and scary at the same time!

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55 minutes ago, StHustle said:


Facts! He definitely underperformed in the low pressure game against the Jags. I remember thinking he would have played much better against a much better team. I really feel he has learned from that and it won’t be an issue moving forward.

 

Random: Not only did we FINALLY find a true franchise QB after our unprecedented wait…we really have a guy at the helm whose ceiling is realistically 🐐
 

I get how the OP could feel this way. His theory wasn’t some unfounded tin foil hat situation. But end of the day we know Josh can perform great in ANY arena when necessary and he is still a work in progress which is both exciting and scary at the same time!


 

I understand that, but to repeatedly argue that Josh gets overhyped for home games is no longer accurate at all.  
 

He had issues with being overexcited as a rookie and going into year 2, but it was both at home and on the road.  He admitted as much and has learned to deal with it.  
 

The issue becomes the OP ignoring the difference in weather from season to season and saying that is not the issue - it is the home crowd.  
 

The home crowd may have a small impact on Josh, but it may also have as big or bigger impact on the OC and what plays get called.  The weather also has a huge impact on the entire offense as it is harder to pass and as a poorer rushing team - we might get put into different situations that impact the play calls and therefore the results.

 

The point is there are many factors that could cause a difference in the home and road split season to season, but the OP came into the post with his reason tee’d up and when people have placed legitimate proof that the weather changed dramatically season to season and the impact 1 bad weather game can have - he dismissed it as - it can’t be the weather the 2 seasons were played in the same stadium.

 

His theory was not a tinfoil situation 2 years ago, but he has shown that high pressure home games no longer bother him based upon the end of the season, but he has stated that weather does make throws more difficult.

 

 

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1 hour ago, MJS said:

Link? I don't remember him saying specifically home games.

 

53 minutes ago, StHustle said:

Cause he didn’t 

I'll look for it but I do recall him saying that he was more pumped up because of the home crowd.  Might have been his rookie year.  Gonna take a while.

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I think most of it is weather related.  And while Josh smiles and says the right things, he has been mic'd up enough to know he hates the cold/wet weather and can't stand playing in it.... but admits it can be an advantage for Buffalo if done correctly.  

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I'd simply argue that if there was an issue with him being overhyped at home, he sure seemed to figure it out when it mattered most. So hopefully that's just yet another flaw he has corrected in his relentless pursuit of becoming the best player in football. 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, NoSaint said:


I think the OP should be obligated to bring us stats normalized by temperature, precipitation and crowning. 
 

that said, I’d guess that in these small samples it’s less about location and more about other variables. 

 

 

The 11 games played in the 12 months going back to that Baltimore playoff game where the Ravens couldn't even get shotgun and long snaps off without the wind altering the trajectory have been the worst stretch of wind, rain and cold I can remember.    It's often lost on TV,  but the weather was just miserable.

 

Opening day against Pittsburgh was somehow already November quality swirling wind conditions on the field and that was a harbinger of what was to come.    Allen's passing performance in that Monday night game against the Patriots was one of the most impressive performances I've ever seen.   The opposing QB was having a really good year and wasn't even allowed to throw. :lol:

 

 

 

 

Edited by BADOLBILZ
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10 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Sugar-rush Josh at home. Killer Josh on the road. Need Killer Josh 100% of the time. I think/hope the KC game was an eye-opener for him. He can be GREAT when he plays angry and focused.

Yup he gets overhyped sometimes.   If I recall he'd often miss an easy pass or two early at home by putting a little too much on the ball.

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At minimum the Buffalo weather contributes to at least 50% of the difference in Home vs. Away splits for Allen. I think the home Patriots MNF game vs. the home Patriots Wild Card game were a perfect example of that. Yes, Allen was sub par in the MNF game but compared to his counter part who was only allowed to throw the ball two times, Allen looked amazing in 30+ mph winds. And when he played the same team in freezing temps but with no wind, he threw a perfect game. 

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10 hours ago, Big Turk said:

I still think it has to do with Allen becoming too hyped at home, even though he plays music to calm himself down, etc...

 

My basis for thinking this is because in 2020 when there were no fans, the splits were nearly identical, home and away, although he was still slightly better on the road.  However, once the fans came back, again he was significantly better on the road, just as he was the prior year...which is pretty clear evidence that he either tries to do too much at home, is too pumped up to try and wow the home fans or there is something else going on. His rookie year he was pretty much even...mostly bad stat wise in both places.

 

2019 Split

image.thumb.png.bc49b14e875b56511e3ac1ab04d18cc9.png

 

2020 Split(no fans)

image.thumb.png.1a19c6a2e55d156019d181fba19b4d52.png

 

2021 Split(fans again)

image.thumb.png.ab7caf7bbc1194c1a561d38b32f10edb.png

 

Career

image.thumb.png.9e600d989bace6dff1a03d88c5cc58cb.png

 

Don't get me wrong, I love the fact he lives for going into other teams houses, taking their lunch money and then laughing in their faces as they cry for Mommy, but it would be nice to see him get a little closer to his road performances at home on balance...

 

 

 

Also...the "more" primetime the game, the better he plays...improving each timeslot from early to afternoon to night.  

image.thumb.png.cd72ca4d7f6e9c2f5ddd3f0be05133fa.png


I think the whole “Josh doesn’t play well at home” argument was debunked after last years playoff game versus New England

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