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Allen still is fairly significantly better on the Road than at Home. Splits don't lie. Thoughts as to why.


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1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

 

So did the stadium stop being windy in 2020?  That's the whole point...he played an entire year with no fans WITH THE SAME WEATHER CONDITIONS as the year before and year after but didn't have the statistical dropoff he had the year before and year after with fans there.  Why are you so willing to ignore that??

You’re talking about a handful of games….  A handful of games doesn’t “prove” jack

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2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Not wins-losses I am talking about...stats are significantly better on the road. 5% higher completion percentage in his career, passer rating 9 points higher, more TDs, fewer INTs, etc.

Well, there hasn't been a "home field advantage" in the NFL for several years now, and not just because of COVID.

 

That whole thing about crowd noise on the road is proving to be a bit of a myth, at least lately.

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, dneveu said:

last year specifically had some pretty terrible weather games.  

 

Pittsburgh game wasn't great.

Houston was a downpour to start.  

NE was a joke with that wind.  

Jets game was windy.

Atlanta and Carolina were pretty lousy weather wise.  

 

Like 6/9 games had pretty minus weather.  

It rained steadily through much of that Houston game, IIRC. And, there wasn’t any reason to pass at all in the 4th quarter.

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Posted (edited)

I’d be interested in seeing Allen vs the opposing QB, home and away.  Controlling for stadium and weather.  Gut (Im no genius) says he’s similarly better vs opposition.

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Why?  It is a completely valid observation backed by clear statistical evidence.

Respectfully, I don’t think it is the right experimental design.   Absurd example …. Highmark has alligators and quicksand, played in monsoons.  Road games are domes with perfect turf.   The key question:  is he similarly better, regardless of venue?

Edited by Neo
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3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

To some degree sure...but the season with no fans where the splits were almost the same suggest there is more at play, especially considering the season before and after were tilted in favor of road splits.

You’d have to check the weather in every game. Maybe the weather was mild for the most when he played without a crowd? The sample size is very small which permits error….

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3 hours ago, Gugny said:

Crowd noise.

Yes we need more crowd noise at home especially when he’s on 3rd and long !!! 

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1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

I didn't say I was worried...more curious as to the why behind it, and No, I don't believe it can be 100% explained by the weather as some seem so eager to do.


 

Why?  
 

You have been shown multiple time that the weather in 2020 for home games was significantly better than 2019 or 2021 - especially in relation to wind and rain.  We are talking about small, limited numbers  from 1 year to the next - less than 8 games worth of data.

 

The weather in 1 game - say NE alone had 5% of his throws with a 50% completion percentage.  If you replace that 1 game where weather was a huge factor and replace it with a nice weather game like NO the week before - his total season completion percentage goes up by 2% and his home completion percentage goes up by over 3%.

 

Just 1 bad weather game accounts for 3% of the difference and there were 4 games that could be looked at.

 

Weather 100% accounts for the difference - anything else is you just trying to insert your point of view into it.

 

Josh has repeatedly said that warm weather and sunny dry conditions have helped him feel the ball and many of his best days are in those conditions.

 

Cold, windy, wet days account for some of his worse days.  
 

Weather is the biggest factor.

 

 

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So, the OP said "splits don't lie". I have no idea what splits is but I get his point. An old saying goes, "figures don't lie but liers can figure." Or, put another way, just looking at the numbers can allow you to draw the wrong conclusion. As many have pointed out, last year was an especially bad weather year for home games. Yes, much worse than 2020 (or so it seemed but since I was all of last year's home games and sitting on a couch in 2020...). In addition, the skill of the opposing defense makes a difference, the score at the time. I've seen some stories that compared various team's aggressiveness by only looking at when the score was within ten points and excluding the last two minutes of each half since blowouts and two minute drills affect play calling. 

 

One way to at least partially (not completely true as teams have injuries, get better over the course of the season, etc.) is how has he done against the same opponent in home vs. away games. Each year, there are three teams he plays both at home and away. Not looking anything up or doing any analysis (just what I said you can't do to draw any conclusions), I kind of remember him playing much better at home against Miami than away, pretty awesome both times against the Jets, and fantastic in the two non-hurricane games against the Pattsies. So, on whole, mostly a push.

 

Before making any conclusion that "Allen is better on the road than at home", you would need to do a full analysis. Specifically, either include in your model or minimize all non-controlled variables (which is almost everything in a football game). We can easily assume that both weather and the defense are two factors that can affect QA performance. The other issue is when you say that he's "significantly better", that's implying a statistical difference, not just eyeballing two sets of averages and saying, "yup, he sucks at home." Not difficult to do, and extremely easy using software, but I'm way too lazy to type in all of the information you gave. All data has a confidence interval, meaning, "with 95% confidence JA has a QA rating between x and y when playing at home and between W and Z when playing on the road." If those two intervals don't overlap, there is a statistically significant difference between how he plays at home vs. away.

 

You're welcome for today's statistics lecture.

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Weather has a part, but also he has an attitude about him, where he want to go into there home and take a 💩 and leave.  He likes being the bad guy.

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I'd say more than anything its weather.

 

Yards are down when he plays at home.  That's likely due to the wind causing more run heavy offenses.  Singletary had 160 more attempts last year at home compared to on the road.

 

Look at Josh's running splits - averages the same yards per rush.  Completion % is down due to playbook and needing to throw less.  318 attempts in 8 games on the road vs. 254 at home (in same # of games).  Yards per attempt down .6 as well. 

 

Go figure, its challenging to throw in Buffalo - but we have a QB who can still be good when doing so, and can run whenever he needs.

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Putin said:

Yes we need more crowd noise at home especially when he’s on 3rd and long !!! 

 

You kid (I hope), but at the Titans game IN NASHVILLE I was surprised how loud it was when we were on offense since it felt like it was more Bills fans than Titans fans. I realize the entire row behind me is in Bills gear making as much noise as possible when we were on offense, especially 3rd downs. We had to have a little talk. They thought just making noise was the point. Ugh…..

 

That was the same crowd of people with one guy who started patting me on the head whenever anything good happened. He was more drunk than myself, and I’m pretty easy going. Late in the game he said “Hey! Your hair is all wet!”. I said “I know, you keep spilling beer on me!”.  😂

 

As for Josh home and away, it’s not that simple. You have to account for weather first and most obviously. We have had some INSANE weather games recently, but there are so many other factors. The quality of the opponent, the game situation (up or down early?), who has more injuries on either side of the ball (did we have a couple WR hurt at home, or are they missing some DB’s on the road?), game plan (they are the worst run defense in the league), etc. Every game is unique and I think it’s far too soon to draw any conclusions. Hopefully Sugar High Josh (it’s a real thing to some degree IMO) learns to control that energy and use it in a productive way.  

 

 

.

Edited by Augie
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4 hours ago, Big Turk said:

I still think it has to do with Allen becoming too hyped at home, even though he plays music to calm himself down, etc...

 

My basis for thinking this is because in 2020 when there were no fans, the splits were nearly identical, home and away, although he was still slightly better on the road.  However, once the fans came back, again he was significantly better on the road, just as he was the prior year...which is pretty clear evidence that he either tries to do too much at home, is too pumped up to try and wow the home fans or there is something else going on. His rookie year he was pretty much even...mostly bad stat wise in both places.

 

2019 Split

image.thumb.png.bc49b14e875b56511e3ac1ab04d18cc9.png

 

2020 Split(no fans)

image.thumb.png.1a19c6a2e55d156019d181fba19b4d52.png

 

2021 Split(fans again)

image.thumb.png.ab7caf7bbc1194c1a561d38b32f10edb.png

 

Career

image.thumb.png.9e600d989bace6dff1a03d88c5cc58cb.png

 

Don't get me wrong, I love the fact he lives for going into other teams houses, taking their lunch money and then laughing in their faces as they cry for Mommy, but it would be nice to see him get a little closer to his road performances at home on balance...

 

 

 

Also...the "more" primetime the game, the better he plays...improving each timeslot from early to afternoon to night.  

image.thumb.png.cd72ca4d7f6e9c2f5ddd3f0be05133fa.png

Yep, let's ***** cut him.  He sucks

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Posted (edited)

Even if you ran a controlled study, where the only difference was home vs away, a five-percent variance would not be statistically significant, nor is a thirty-game sample size.  In this study, with its small sample size and lack of control over other factors (like the weather, the opponent, team injuries, etc.), a five-percent variation can easily be explained by one or more of those extraneous variables.

 

 

Edited by WhoTom
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Posted (edited)

I honestly don't care about that statistic as much as Allen vs all other visiting QB's during that span.  The reality is whether plays a huge factor.  If Josh's stats are better than the visiting QB's over that span then that is what matters to me.  IF you watched the wind game last year vs the Pats he put balls in receiver's chests that were dropped.  In the rain and snow he completed throws as well.  I am not sure his statistics will always beat out the opponents in the weather (see Philly at Bills with Wentz) but I think it averages out better.  Especially in 2020 and 2021.  If weather is a neutralizer then I want our QB to be able to perform better in those games which I believe he does.  I wouldn't discount running in those games either because those are free yards (or as I call them a guaranteed completion).

 

I also don't believe in the sugar high Josh Allen comments.  My biggest argument against that nickname is look at Josh's stats in primetime and playoff games.  He has some ridiculous numbers.  

 

We have the right guy.  I wouldn't change anything about his game right now.  Even the running.  I don't think he needs to throttle back on scrambles.  I wouldn't mind him running out of bounds instead of lowering a shoulder.  But he seems to have reigned that in a bit with each season.

Edited by Fred Slacks
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