Who do you think Bills pick first in the draft and why do you think that player?

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, Wizard said:

I think Roger McCready, CB from Auburn. I believe he will be one of the highest rated CB’s when Bills pick.

 

Why Him?

• The obvious need for a CB and coaching staff strength in utilizing/maximizing talent in this area
• He is viewed as a late first/early second talent. Good height, 6’2 and SEC experience against quality WR’s.
• Publications and websites list his coverage skills and footwork as best traits.
• Chiefs, Titans, Chargers, Raiders, and Browns all improved WR units.

 

 

 

I don't think him because he is a much better corner in man than in zone and the Bills are still going to be a zone heavy scheme. 

 

I think you might have right position, wrong player.

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

It'll be CB or WR. Leaning towards Corner, as I feel there's a bigger drop off there after Round 1. I think it will be either Andrew Booth or Trent McDuffie at Corner or Jameson Williams or Chris Olave at WR.

 

I'd be extatic with Booth or Olave. Happy with Williams. Content with McDuffie although I prefer Gordon of the two Washington corners.

[No_Matter_What]

7 hours ago, Logic said:

If...and I stress IF this list is true, because I have no idea if it is, and they don't list their sources for this information....

Then it shows that the Bills are thinking WR, CB, and OG with their first round pick. It seems reasonable based on this visit list, as well as what we all know the top roster needs are, that whichever player they view as "BPA" among this list, that still happens to be on the board, will be their pick.

I'd say there is a 90%+ chance that a guy we take in first is on this list.

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, whorlnut said:

 

Would much rather have Dotson than olave. Dotson has better hands and isn’t afraid of traffic. 

 

Olave is the best route runner and separator in the class and it isn't close IMO. 

[No_Matter_What]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Olave is the best route runner and separator in the class and it isn't close IMO. 

He'll be a Patriot unfortunately.

[GreggTX]

Beane takes a bit of a gamble and picks Kyler Gordon -- A redshirt sophmore CB from the Washington Huskies. The draftniks will hate it more than Rousseau. Very high ceiling, but a risk. Great tackler -- Runs through ball cariers. He is scheme versatile and has great short area burst. I think Frazier and McDermott could maybe make him a probowler. He also has studied dancing and Kung Fu. Just a wild guess. I read that he's projected to go late 1st or early 2nd. It looks like there is good value at CB in this range of picks.

Edited March 21, 2022 by GreggTX

[Greg S]

Beane addressed the LOS in FA. He upgraded the pass rush with Von so it will most likely be CB in Rd 1. Who will be there when the Bills pick I have no idea. With Tre probably not back until Nov and Wallace gone I would be shocked if the best CB available isn't the pick.

[BuffaloFan68]

I'm going with a LB and CB with our first 2 picks and in either order.  I disagree with those that have us taking a WR early since I like the WRs we have including Jake Kumerow (6'4" 209 lbs) & Isaich Hodgin (6'3").  

Bills Goal Super Bowl!!!!!

[Kaenon]

Trent McDuffie if we stay at 25 because we need a corner.

Edited March 21, 2022 by Kaenon

[skibum]

I don't think it's necessary or even wise to take BPA in the first round. Depending on the depth available at each position, there are likely to be players that can start right away and be potential stars in whatever position your team needs most. Then you can go BPA from there.

 

I think they take a CB. They are short-handed there, and Tre is coming off a serious knee injury - I didn't realize until today that he also tore his meniscus - that's an injury that rarely heals completely and can cause lots of problems down the road. 

Edited March 21, 2022 by skibum

[OldTimer1960]

11 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Gun to my head I'll predict Daxton Hill, the DB from Michigan. He would be a versatile chess piece for our secondary, I imagine McDermott and Frazier would love finding ways to use him all over the field. He has elite athletic traits which is the one thing this secondary is missing. He ran a 4.38 40 which would immediately make him our fastest DB. He has some weaknesses in his mental game but will just be turning 21 in September so he has a lot of room to grow. It just strikes me as a McDermott/Beane type pick.

Interesting thought.  I’m not sure that would help the team much this year as he is primarily a safety.  He has played some slot corner, but I don’t think he has played outside.  Slot corner is ably manned by Teron Johnson, but outside is a wasteland currently.

[billsfan1959]

8 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

I just think considering their defensive background with McD they’ll go defense over offense in the first round as they’ve done in every draft except when they drafted Allen…. At some point I hope that philosophy changes and they finally start stacking the offense. Maybe they prove me wrong…. Have to see how the rest of FA plays out.

 

I agree that they have tried to put the core pieces of their defense together through the draft, particularly in the 1st round; however, I'm not sure if their starting point in the draft is defense, or if it has been more circumstance driven.  I do think the pick is going to be influenced by where they stand at the end of free agency and how good they feel about White's rehab progress. They addressed the defensive line in free agency and if they truly believe White (who is still only 26) will be back to what he was, they don't need to draft a corner in the 1st. They really are good at finding good DBs later in the draft (and still may pick one or two up in free agency) and if the DL improves next year, it will only make the secondary better. So, I don't think defense is a priority at the top of the draft.

 

That leaves the offense and, IMO, the priorities on offense go interior OL, then receiver, and then RB. 

 

McDermott might be defense oriented; however, both he and Beane understand their path to sustained success and a championship goes through Allen. The very first thing Beane and McDermott addressed about the team after the season ended is making sure that the offensive line was a priority. I believe they think they are set at Tackle for the foreseeable future with Dawkins and Brown. At center, Morse is still only 29 and tied up for two more years. But, they need to start looking for his replacement and could take someone like Cameron Jurgens around the 3rd/4th, or Luke Wattenburg around the 6th.

 

What they need to address immediately is the Guard situation (both short and long term) and it is not a position they were, or will be, able to adequately address in free agency. Even if they retain Bates and Boettger returns from his injury, they are nothing more than backups. Saffold is a temporary solution as well as a mentor for the younger linemen, particularly in Kromer's system. So, they need some young Guards and they really need one to be able to start. There are two Guards in this draft that I believe are day 1 starters: Zion Johnson and Kenyon Green. If either one is available at 25, I think they almost have to select  whoever it is (my preference is Johnson), because they will not be on the board much longer than that. The next tier of Guards are 3rd round or later (although I also think they should select another Guard in the 3rd if either Donovan West or Cole Strange are available).

 

If neither Johnson or Green are available at 25, then they might go receiver. IMO, I don't believe they see McKenzie as their answer in the slot and that is where they need to go first. Unfortunately slot guys like Jahan Dotson and John Metchie are a reach at 25. If someone like Jameson Williams or Chris Olave fell to 25 - or even Trelyon Burks (who should go in the late 1st)- then they could go there as more weapons for Allen is always a good thing.

 

In the end, I'm with you in that I do not want to see a defensive player in the 1st. 

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'd be extatic with Booth or Olave. Happy with Williams. Content with McDuffie although I prefer Gordon of the two Washington corners.

If they go WR in round 1, can they find a corner in 2nd that can play meaningful snaps early this season?

[GunnerBill]

11 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Gun to my head I'll predict Daxton Hill, the DB from Michigan. He would be a versatile chess piece for our secondary, I imagine McDermott and Frazier would love finding ways to use him all over the field. He has elite athletic traits which is the one thing this secondary is missing. He ran a 4.38 40 which would immediately make him our fastest DB. He has some weaknesses in his mental game but will just be turning 21 in September so he has a lot of room to grow. It just strikes me as a McDermott/Beane type pick.

 

I am not sure he'd be my gun to the head pick, I do think there are others players more likely, but it isn't a bonkers suggestion. He wouldn't get on the field much in 2022 but I do think he would be a significant piece going forward and at some point they need to move on from Hyde and Poyer. 

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

If they go WR in round 1, can they find a corner in 2nd that can play meaningful snaps early this season?

 

At the end of round 2 I think that's more doubtful to be honest. I think there are 7 guys who could come in and be impact starters in year 1 at corner: Booth, Gardner, Stingley, Gordon, McCreary, McDuffie and Elam. McCreary is a clunky scheme fit and to a lesser extent so is Elam. I have it as a top 3, then a group of 4 quite closely graded and then a significant drop. There is nobody else who I have given a 1st or 2nd round grade to. I expect all 7 of those to be gone by our second pick. After that there are guys who could play this year and maybe be serviceable but do you want a serviceable 7th round pick (Jackson) and a serviceable rookie starting the season at corner if Tre isn't healthy?

[Don Otreply]

Like every other team, Beane’s  picks are BPA at a position of need, imo it will be a CB or WR in round one, 

 

 

[Aesop]

CB Andrew Booth Jr or WR Jameson Williams

[billsfan1959]

Just now, ScottLaw said:

Depends what they do the rest of FA… could see them adding a vet CB in which case I think you see right in they won’t go defense first round… if not I wouldn’t at all be surprised if it’s the pick…. And I don’t think you use a first rounder on a Guard. It’s not a big money position and if they do draft an offensive linemen in the first he should have some position flexibility in at least being able to play tackle… Guard just isn’t a position you use a first round pick on just because it’s a need unless a generational talent is there. 

 

I would normally agree with you on picking a Guard in the 1st round, and I think BPA is always something that should be a consideration in every pick. However, I think late 1st round is fine for Johnson, talent wise, and, again IMO, the Guard position has to be addressed in a serious manner. Given that, I think Kromer could make starters out of someone in the 3rd round like Donovan West or Cole Strange (9.95 RAS - and Kromer loves his athletic linemen).

 

We'll see.

[frostbitmic]

Kyler Gordon - CB - Washington ... With White possibly missing part of the season and both Taron Johnson and Neal being slot corners, Dane Jackson is next up and he's a CB2 at best at this point in time and we need a CB1 to line up as a starter. Gordon could be the best available CB at the 25th spot in the draft. Signing a veteran CB for a year would be great but he'll have to work for food.

 

On the other hand, if Bates signs with another team, Guard becomes a huge issue because Ford should only be used in an emergency role. If Bates leaves, I think Zion Johnson is the pick.

[OldTimer1960]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

At the end of round 2 I think that's more doubtful to be honest. I think there are 7 guys who could come in and be impact starters in year 1 at corner: Booth, Gardner, Stingley, Gordon, McCreary, McDuffie and Elam. McCreary is a clunky scheme fit and to a lesser extent so is Elam. I have it as a top 3, then a group of 4 quite closely graded and then a significant drop. There is nobody else who I have given a 1st or 2nd round grade to. I expect all 7 of those to be gone by our second pick. After that there are guys who could play this year and maybe be serviceable but do you want a serviceable 7th round pick (Jackson) and a serviceable rookie starting the season at corner if Tre isn't healthy?

Thank you, that is why I asked.  I really think that if they don’t take a corner in round 1, they will have to consider trading up in the 2nd to get someone at corner who can play meaningful snaps this year.

 

If they sign a vet who can start, the need for playing early lessens some.

[BuffaloRebound]

I’d love an interior OL with 1st round pick, but it’s probably gotta be a CB.  They would’ve signed Levi to $4m per year if they weren’t looking to upgrade.  And the CB’s with speed who can play are usually gone by pick 57.  

[BillsSbSoon]

2 hours ago, Greg S said:

Beane addressed the LOS in FA. He upgraded the pass rush with Von so it will most likely be CB in Rd 1. Who will be there when the Bills pick I have no idea. With Tre probably not back until Nov and Wallace gone I would be shocked if the best CB available isn't the pick.

Thats what im thinking too unless we sign a corner in Fa still. Corner is a bigger issue than wr right now. But beane is going to go bpa regardless, and they may be higher on dane jackson than we think too

[Greg S]

2 minutes ago, BillsSbSoon said:

Thats what im thinking too unless we sign a corner in Fa still. Corner is a bigger issue than wr right now. But beane is going to go bpa regardless, and they may be higher on dane jackson than we think too

I think we are done in FA at least as far as signing any top FA's still out there. Beane admitted they don't have a lot of room left with the Cap. I think he will focus on the draft now at this point.

[Floydboy12]

Would be happy with McDuffie. Would be ecstatic with Olave. Think he would be perfect with Diggs and Davis.  I’m honestly good with riding with Dane Jackson for a year or two and developing a corner. The Woolen kid from UTSA would be nice in round 2-4. But I would also be good with McDuffie in Rd 1 and Wandale Robinson in rd 2 or 3. 

[Rockinon]

Beane has said protecting Josh is a priority. Not sure how much he is willing to invest there. So far, we have 2 OLmen from FA. Gotta get CB and WR help simply because of the number of players lost. Wonder if one of our WRs decides he doesn't want to retire since he would have a legit chance at a Superbowl ring? We do need RB too. Everyone who says best player available is crazy if they think that decision isn't influence by need. CB makes the most sense to me. Perhaps a trade down. I believe there are quality WRs later on. Someone was saying that trading down and acquiring more picks would actually lower the cap. All I know is, Beane has surprised me every single draft. This is a guy that knows how to think outside of the box. Have no idea what he is going to do next. I think CB, WR do the most to help the team in the 1st round, but WR is deep. OK, now I'm rambling... Gotta be CB, right?

[OldTimer1960]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think him because he is a much better corner in man than in zone and the Bills are still going to be a zone heavy scheme. 

 

I think you might have right position, wrong player.

What makes McCreary suited for man coverage, but not so in zones?  I would think it would take a better overall athlete to play man.  It seems in zone, you can hide some athletic limitations.  I’m really asking whether it is reasonable to think that a good man coverage corner could learn to play zone well, but not necessarily the other way around?

[Rico]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Olave is the best route runner and separator in the class and it isn't close IMO. 

No one more clutch. I like clutch players.

[NewEra]

20 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

What makes McCreary suited for man coverage, but not so in zones?  I would think it would take a better overall athlete to play man.  It seems in zone, you can hide some athletic limitations.  I’m really asking whether it is reasonable to think that a good man coverage corner could learn to play zone well, but not necessarily the other way around?

Mcreary is a good athlete and he sticks pretty well with WRs in man.  Zone corners are generally long limbed.  Mccreary has super short T-rex arms.  

[SoMAn]

WR Chris Olave or Trent McDuffie, CB

 

Although I believe either of those players are real possibilities to be picked by Buffalo, I predict the Bills trade out of the first round. 

 

With all the money they've already allocated to FAs, I wouldn't  be surprised for the Bills to find a trade partner who will take # 25 in exchange for their 2nd round and additional picks - maybe a 3rd or 4th, and/or picks in 2023.

 

Wouldn't mind seeing them have 2 picks in both second and third rounds. Apart from the QB position, there's a lot of depth at other need positions. Depending on the slot of the trade partner, and without hesitation, I'd trade # 25 for an additional 2nd and 3rd .

 

 

 

Edited March 22, 2022 by SoMAn
more thought put into it

[Einstein's Dog]

WR Treylon Burks:

 

1.  Will be one of the last tier 1 WRs left (J Williams/London/Olave/Wilson), won't get this level with second pick

2.  Great fit - he's like a power forward of the WRs 6'3" 225 and fast.  Helps bring some physicality to our finesse team.  Known for YAC.

3.  By going 1st round offense it helps even out the offseason emphasis previously on defense.  

4.  WR's are very expensive, he takes over Sanders/Beas expense.  Great w progressive finances - Diggs now, Davis yr or two, Burks 4-5

5.  We will get another FA CB.  We're just waiting for the dust to settle and get a bargain.  We make no-names look good.  Made L Wallace into $4M man.  Get a $3M vet CB and a round 2 CB and make do until Tre comes back.

[GunnerBill]

44 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

What makes McCreary suited for man coverage, but not so in zones?  I would think it would take a better overall athlete to play man.  It seems in zone, you can hide some athletic limitations.  I’m really asking whether it is reasonable to think that a good man coverage corner could learn to play zone well, but not necessarily the other way around?

 

It is definitely harder in man to cover up physical limitations. So generally, yes a more talented athlete is normally required for a heavy man scheme than a heavy zone scheme. But people often presume that means any good man corner can just adjust to zone and it doesn't always work that way. Physically you generally need to be a good, fuild lateral mover to play zone but then you also need to be really smart. Play recognition skills, instincts, communication skills are all big for zone corners. But the biggest thing is discipline. The thing you notice with man corners who struggle in zone (and it is there on McCreary's tape) is they get a bit lost covering space and they lose their discipline and want to go and engage an opponent. 

 

As for can you teach it, a lot of it you can, but I think the discipline bit is really hard to change. That often just comes naturally. Asumogah is the classic text book go to for "man corner who has struggled in zone" when he moved from Oakland to the Eagles on a huge deal, but a more recent draft example might be Adoree Jackson who despite lacking ideal length had the speed and physicality to come in as a 1st round pick able to play man. But when the Titans used him in a heavy zone scheme he flamed out quickly.

[Brandon]

After loading up the defensive line in free agency,  I expect them to draft heavily to the offensive side next month.  That upgraded pass rush should take some pressure off the DBs.  They might still go CB at 25,  but if White's recovery is coming along well,  it wouldn't surprise me if they wait to take a developmental CB in the mid rounds. 

 

Ultimately, they're going to win or lose based on Allen and the offense.  They've stated priorities to protect Allen and improve their speed,  but they've done very little of that in comparison to their defensive investment this off-season.  The coordinators are also a consideration,  and I would expect Frazier to have an easier time hiding a weakness on defense than Dorsey can as a first year offensive coordinator.  I expect them to take a WR or OL in R1,  with an outside chance of a RB if they really like one of them and feel they can help in the passing game.   My guess is the same as it was a few weeks back...Jahan Dotson. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Brandon said:

My guess is the same as it was a few weeks back...Jahan Dotson. 

 

The Beasley move definitely opens a spot for Dodson. That said you still have a hard time selling me on him as a value at #25. 

[OldTimer1960]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is definitely harder in man to cover up physical limitations. So generally, yes a more talented athlete is normally required for a heavy man scheme than a heavy zone scheme. But people often presume that means any good man corner can just adjust to zone and it doesn't always work that way. Physically you generally need to be a good, fuild lateral mover to play zone but then you also need to be really smart. Play recognition skills, instincts, communication skills are all big for zone corners. But the biggest thing is discipline. The thing you notice with man corners who struggle in zone (and it is there on McCreary's tape) is they get a bit lost covering space and they lose their discipline and want to go and engage an opponent. 

 

As for can you teach it, a lot of it you can, but I think the discipline bit is really hard to change. That often just comes naturally. Asumogah is the classic text book go to for "man corner who has struggled in zone" when he moved from Oakland to the Eagles on a huge deal, but a more recent draft example might be Adoree Jackson who despite lacking ideal length had the speed and physicality to come in as a 1st round pick able to play man. But when the Titans used him in a heavy zone scheme he flamed out quickly.

Outstanding response, thank you very much!

[GunnerBill]

55 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Mcreary is a good athlete and he sticks pretty well with WRs in man.  Zone corners are generally long limbed.  Mccreary has super short T-rex arms.  

 

And my Adoree Jackson example above - he shares the T-rex arms attribute with McCreary. 

[junior]

My guess: a WR, CB, or OL who tests insanely well athletically in some capacity. Whether that's size, speed, or agility. 

 

Beane 1st Rounder RAS Scores:

• Josh Allen: 9.67
• Tremaine Edmunds: 9.74
• Ed Oliver: 9.87
• Greg Rousseau: 7.70 

 

Rousseau is the lone outlier of course, but he still scored in the top 25% of DEs since 1987.

 

Given the team's commitment to improving the defense over the last few offseasons, I think we'll take an offensive player, meaning G or WR, and with WRs being quite a bit costlier than guards, and us right up against the cap for the foreseeable future, I think Beane will want to get a premier player on a cost-controlled contract. In other words, a WR.

 

Projected 1st-2nd round receivers (no specific order):

• Jameson Williams
  • 6'1", 179lbs.
  • RAS: n/a
• Chris Olave
  • 6'0", 187lbs.
  • RAS:
• Jahan Dotson
  • 5'11", 178lbs
  • RAS:
• Garrett Wilson
  • 6'0", 183lbs.
  • RAS: 
• Drake London
  • 6'4", 219lbs.
  • RAS: 
• Treylon Burks
  • 6'2", 225lbs.
  • RAS: 8.91
• Christian Watson
  • 6'4", 208lbs.
  • RAS: 9.98
• George Pickens
  • 6'3", 195lbs.
  • RAS:

 

I have to look around more to find/compute the missing scores, but I think it'll be one of the above players.

 

On a related note, it's worth mentioning that Zion Johnson scored 9.95 RAS, ranking him 58 out of 1,406 guards since 1987. 

 

 

[NewEra]

Watson with the 9.98 dam!!

[Brandon]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Beasley move definitely opens a spot for Dodson. That said you still have a hard time selling me on him as a value at #25. 

 

It may be a bit early,  I agree.  If he's their guy and they can trade down for him,  all the better. 

[Allen2Moulds]

I think the Bills will be aggressive this year, and will trade up to grab the corner they covet. I personally wouldn't mind using next years 1st, to land a guy like Sauce Gardner.

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, Allen2Moulds said:

I think the Bills will be aggressive this year, and will trade up to grab the corner they covet. I personally wouldn't mind using next years 1st, to land a guy like Sauce Gardner.

Counter argument is no cap space likely next year to fill holes, so it would hurt to not have their 1st next year.