Offseason Trade Prediction: We acquire Saquan

[Matt_In_NH]

7+Million for a guy who will be on IR....no thanks

[BillsShredder83]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Not sure why people think running the ball more is what the Bills offense needs… just get Josh some more weapons outside and better protection while mixing in some runs to keep the defense honest. 

its not about running more. its about being effective on the runs we do need. NOT TO MENTION his unique skillset is much more pass catching than it is, running.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think this is one of the stranger ideas you've had.

 

The Giants need to clear cap.  If they keep Saquon on the roster, they owe him $7M fully guaranteed on a 5th year option the previous regime picked up.  But, while a 5th year option is widely reported as "fully guaranteed", "The option year becomes fully guaranteed on the first day of the league year in the fifth contract year"

 

It is guaranteed for injury when exercised, but unless Barkley's team somehow argues for that, the Giants could move on by releasing him.  Sure, they'd like to get something for him instead - but what team is going to trade for the oft-injured Barkley on a 1 year, fully guaranteed at the time of the trade, $7M deal?

 

It's fine to "not write Barkley off so fast", but the Bills have limited cap space.  Why would it serve them to trade both draft picks AND players who are still cheap labor on their rookie deal, for $7M 1 year fully guaranteed contract on a player who has never been able to live up to his promise, and who will need something we currently don't have - a strong run-blocking IOL - to realize his potential here?

That’s why I mentioned in my post that the caveat would be a new contract here.  
 

I wouldn’t say he hasn’t lived up to his promise, he showed it.  The Giants team has been in shambles ever since though. 

8 minutes ago, NewEra said:

You’re going back 20+ years to dig up Taylor and 16 years for gore.  Meanwhile, there are 20+ (Maybe 50-100+) instances of RBs that couldn’t get over their injuries and become the back that they may have been. I don’t think it’s a gamble we should take.  Unnecessary risk. Like you said, Singletary is good enough. Why waste assets/cap space on a Rb…..of all the positions to roll the dice and give up cap/picks for…..it just doesn’t make sense to me.  2.8M cap room…..

 

if we trade for him, I’ll be excited to have a Rb with his potential and hope for the best, but I would shocked if it worked out 

I named them specifically because of their standing as top end RBs.  
 

I am not saying a change of scenery is automatic he stays healthy, just saying it’s not fair to just say he can’t.  
 

Any player in the league would have had the same ankle injury if they rolled it as nasty as his was this year, and it’s argued he made it back sooner than most would have.

 

Not every injury is a sign of persistent injury issues.  It’s not like he had ticky tack soft tissue issues.  He had a couple bad luck plays where things got bent the wrong way.  
 

 

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

New York, New York, If he couldn’t make there, he probably won’t make it anywhere.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

That’s why I mentioned in my post that the caveat would be a new contract here. 

 

It would have to be re-negotiated before the trade, because once the league year starts and he's traded, he has the cards.  He can say "nope!" and we're on the hook.

 

But even assuming he re-negotiates, I'm just boggled by the notion that he's the missing piece and the best use of our limited cap dollars.

[Alphadawg7]

I do find it interesting to see some of the same people complaining about not being able afford a $7m contract (here and some other threads this came up) are also ones advocating to trade for Khalil Mack, who in best case scenario would be a $17M contract to absorb.  
 

Saquans contract isnt that bad, and it’s for this year only.  Allens new deal doesn’t kick in until next year.  If there was ever a year we could take a chance on a player who has shown to be an elite play maker and is still young, this is the year.
 

Edited January 29, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[NewEra]

13 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

That’s why I mentioned in my post that the caveat would be a new contract here.  
 

I wouldn’t say he hasn’t lived up to his promise, he showed it.  The Giants team has been in shambles ever since though. 

I named them specifically because of their standing as top end RBs.  
 

I am not saying a change of scenery is automatic he stays healthy, just saying it’s not fair to just say he can’t.  
 

Any player in the league would have had the same ankle injury if they rolled it as nasty as his was this year, and it’s argued he made it back sooner than most would have.

 

Not every injury is a sign of persistent injury issues.  It’s not like he had ticky tack soft tissue issues.  He had a couple bad luck plays where things got bent the wrong way.  
 

 

Agreed.  And bouncing back from the injuries, he hasn’t looked like the same back that was drafted #2.  Maaaaaybe he turns that around.  I just wouldn’t waste our resources on a roll of the dice during such a critical time

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It would have to be re-negotiated before the trade, because once the league year starts and he's traded, he has the cards.  He can say "nope!" and we're on the hook.

 

But even assuming he re-negotiates, I'm just boggled by the notion that he's the missing piece and the best use of our limited cap dollars.

But keep in mind, it’s only $7M and Allens new deal doesn’t hit til next year.  We could swing this even if we didn’t do a new deal.  This would be the year to do it.
 

But I would expect Beane would do a new deal ahead of the trade anyway if he made this move.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

Barkley is injury riddled. Not interested.

 

NO is in a similar position. I'd go after Kamara instead.

 

A guy whose worst year was 1330 yds from scrimmage?  *drool*

 

Even with N'Orleans eating his signing bonus, though, he's $11M/yr for the next 2 years.

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I do find it interesting to see some of the same people complaining about not being able afford a $7m contract (here and some other threads this came up) are also ones advocating to trade for Khalil Mack, who in best case scenario would be a $17M contract to absorb. 

 

Who are they?

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

A guy whose worst year was 1330 yds from scrimmage?  *drool*

 

Even with N'Orleans eating his signing bonus, though, he's $11M/yr for the next 2 years.

We can’t afford Kamara IMO, he will cost too much to acquire and too much on the cap.

 

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

A guy whose worst year was 1330 yds from scrimmage?  *drool*

 

Even with N'Orleans eating his signing bonus, though, he's $11M/yr for the next 2 years.

 

Who are they?

I wasn’t referencing you, which is why I replied separately directly to you and didn’t bring that up.  Lol.  
 

My point with the post you replied to is that people always think we can maneuver  the cap when it’s a player that poster wants, but when they aren’t a fan of a different player the cap is suddenly a bigger issue.  

Edited January 29, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[BADOLBILZ]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It would have to be re-negotiated before the trade, because once the league year starts and he's traded, he has the cards.  He can say "nope!" and we're on the hook.

 

But even assuming he re-negotiates, I'm just boggled by the notion that he's the missing piece and the best use of our limited cap dollars.

 

 

You are giving @Alphadawg7's goofy idea a lot of false hope.

 

 

"Beginning with 2018 first-round picks, the fifth-year salary is fully guaranteed when the option is exercised. A player's fourth-year base salary will also become fully guaranteed at the time the option year is picked up, if it wasn't already."  -Apr 21, 2021

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You are giving @Alphadawg7's goofy idea a lot of false hope.

 

 

"Beginning with 2018 first-round picks, the fifth-year salary is fully guaranteed when the option is exercised. A player's fourth-year base salary will also become fully guaranteed at the time the option year is picked up, if it wasn't already."  -Apr 21, 2021

Where is the language that says player can’t agree to a new deal or an extension?  Lmao.  
 

No one is arguing what is current contract is.  Why do you keep bringing this up?

[filthymcnasty08]

Lot of Fantasy based hot takes on Saquan.

 

His offensive line ranked 31st and 30th in the last 2 years.

 

Injuries, yes.  But Done?  

 

I would bet not.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

My point with the post you replied to is that people always think we can maneuver  the cap when it’s a player that poster wants, but when they aren’t a fan of a different player the cap is suddenly a bigger issue.  

 

Ha.  It would be a fair cop on me that I always think the cap is a bigger issue, probably a bigger issue than it is, truly.

 

9 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You are giving @Alphadawg7's goofy idea a lot of false hope.

 

 

"Beginning with 2018 first-round picks, the fifth-year salary is fully guaranteed when the option is exercised. A player's fourth-year base salary will also become fully guaranteed at the time the option year is picked up, if it wasn't already."  -Apr 21, 2021

 

Not in the post you're quoting, I'm not - nothing says that the contract can't be renegotiated.  For example, Allen's $23M option for 2022 was renegotiated when he signed his contract extension, and his cap hit for 2022 is now $16M.

 

But it's a fair cop on me that I thought the 5th yr option still wasn't guaranteed until the start of the new league year, and missed that this is the year that changes.

 

The Giants are stuck, unless they negotiate a new contract.  Heh.

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Ha.  It would be a fair cop on me that I always think the cap is a bigger issue, probably a bigger issue than it is, truly.

Hey, I’m there with you.  I’m always a “protect the cap” motto person myself.  
 

I just think Barkley contract situation isn’t a risk as it’s one year anyway, and Josh Allen’s new deal doesn’t hit for another year.  
 

So worst case we are not stuck if it didn’t work out.  
 

But I do think Beane would work on doing a new deal ahead of the trade as you mentioned to at least assure that if he does work out he could be here a couple seasons at least.  

[GunnerBill]

I do not want any bit of Saquan. 

 

The contract reason has been covered by others, but there is a performance reason too. His backup averaged nearly half a yard more per rush and while that is not abnormal sample size is normally a big reason. In this case Barkley only had 17 more attempts. 

 

Watch any Giants game. You see Saquan dancing around in the backfield and getting tackled for a loss when there are positive yards there WAYYYY too often. The Bills have a line where there will be plays where they don't open big lanes and you just have to go forward and get 2 or 3. 

 

Hard, hard, hard pass. 

 

EDIT: to be clear I don't think he is terrible but he isn't a fit here. In a stretch zone scheme I'd have some interest

 

Edited January 29, 2022 by GunnerBill

[Alphadawg7]

10 minutes ago, filthymcnasty08 said:

Lot of Fantasy based hot takes on Saquan.

 

His offensive line ranked 31st and 30th in the last 2 years.

 

Injuries, yes.  But Done?  

 

I would bet not.

And his QB play was awful too. 

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I do not want any bit of Saquan. 

 

The contract reason has been covered by others, but there is a performance reason too. His backup averaged nearly half a yard more per rush and while that is not abnormal sample size is normally a big reason. In this case Barkley only had 17 more attempts. 

 

Watch any Giants game. You see Saquan dancing around in the backfield and getting tackled for a loss when there are positive yards there WAYYYY too often. The Bills have a line where there will be plays where they don't open big lanes and you just have to go forward and get 2 or 3. 

 

Hard, hard, hard pass. 

It usually takes a full year of playing before a player find his form again after tearing an ACL.  
 

Not to mention, defenses play it differently and even stack the box to defend Barkley, they dont defend the Giants the same for the other RBs on the team as they aren’t anyone they worry about in the same way.
 

Which is why I keep cautioning about Tre Whites return and why CB is by far our top need.  

Edited January 29, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[zow2]

Why does this thread exist?  I would not want Saquan here. He’s injury riddled. He’s not the same

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Where is the language that says player can’t agree to a new deal or an extension?  Lmao.  
 

No one is arguing what is current contract is.  Why do you keep bringing this up?

 

 

Happless gave you bad info........Barkley can't simply be released at no cost.........the Giants are stuck with his $7M either way..........so there is NO leverage to be used against Barkley or his agent in an upcoming deal.

 

Now if you are Barkley........you hope to reproduce your rookie year numbers and sign a 4 year $60M deal with $30M guaranteed after the 2022 season.

 

You don't want to venture a guess because you want to live in the land of make believe.

 

What kind of compromise do Barkley and his agent agree to make to get "a new deal or an extension"?

 

Let's say 3 year extension @$30M would be the basis........2/3 of the value at 3/4 of the length.

 

The guaranteed money would be the $7M guaranteed in 2022.......converted to signing bonus.........plus half the value of the other 3 years @ $10M per ($15M).

 

That could get his cap hit down to a manageable $2.5M-$3M in 2022 before exploding in subsequent years and leaving you with more than $20M in guarantees left.

 

So do you want to guarantee $22M total to a RB who hasn't produced for 2 years........with a long injury history? 

 

It's an absurd notion.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

It usually takes a full year of playing before a player find his form again after tearing an ACL.  
 

Not to mention, defenses play it differently and even stack the box to defend Barkley, they dont defend the Giants the same for the other RBs on the team as they aren’t anyone they worry about in the same way.
 

Which is why I keep cautioning about Tre Whites return and why CB is by far our top need.  

 

That all might be true but it is just another set of things you have got get over to be comfortable signing him in addition to the contract. 

 

I repeat for me it would be the hardest of passes.

[Victory Formation]

I would offer them a 4th. 1 year left on his deal, big salary, had a down year, but yes, for the right price I would be interested.

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That all might be true but it is just another set of things you have got get over to be comfortable signing him in addition to the contract. 

 

I repeat for me it would be the hardest of passes.

What scares you about a $7m contract that has one year left on it though?

 

Allens deal doesn’t kick in until next year.  
 

And there is still the possibility Beane does a new deal with him ahead of the trade to give us some assurances and cap relief and him more upfront money to try and pop off on a SB caliber team next couple years and have a shot at another good contract before it’s too late.

 

This makes more sense to all parties than I think some realize.

[Aussie Joe]

This is the sort of deal Doug Whaley would do...

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

What scares you about a $7m contract that has one year left on it though?

 

Allens deal doesn’t kick in until next year.  
 

And there is still the possibility Beane does a new deal with him ahead of the trade to give us some assurances and cap relief and him more upfront money to try and pop off on a SB caliber team next couple years and have a shot at another good contract before it’s too late.

 

This makes more sense to all parties than I think some realize.

 

Paying $7m to a running back on a pass first offense and if you do a new deal he is looking for at least Aaron Jones type money. And I don't think he fits our scheme. And by your own admission I am taking a chance on him being back to his best 2 years removed from an ACL. 

 

Too many reasons why it doesn't work IMO. 

[reddogblitz]

28 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

guy whose worst year was 1330 yds from scrimmage?  *drool*

 

Even with N'Orleans eating his signing bonus, though, he's $11M/yr for the next 2 years.

 

So?  He'd be worth it.  You get what you pay for.  For what we'd get it sounds cheap.

[BADOLBILZ]

17 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Ha.  It would be a fair cop on me that I always think the cap is a bigger issue, probably a bigger issue than it is, truly.

 

 

Not in the post you're quoting, I'm not - nothing says that the contract can't be renegotiated.  For example, Allen's $23M option for 2022 was renegotiated when he signed his contract extension, and his cap hit for 2022 is now $16M.

 

But it's a fair cop on me that I thought the 5th yr option still wasn't guaranteed until the start of the new league year, and missed that this is the year that changes.

 

The Giants are stuck, unless they negotiate a new contract.  Heh.

 

 

If the Giants were able to release him with no cap consequence it would be no different than him having a fully UNGUARANTEED contract............it is a critical distinction because then the Giants would then have leverage to re-negotiate his contract.

 

Instead they have none.

 

It's not just a "fair cop" of minor import......it makes a huge difference in regard to the possibility of "renegotiating" his contract.

 

With that deal fully guaranteed he can negotiate his next deal under the assumption that he bounces back to his 2018 form.

[purple haze]

2 hours ago, whorlnut said:

Great…so more high picks on defense and wait until the mid to late rounds to help the offense. I really don’t know what to say…🙄

They want to be the Packers?🤷🏾‍♂️

[whorlnut]

1 minute ago, purple haze said:

They want to be the Packers?🤷🏾‍♂️

Kinda what I’m afraid of. This is what you get when you hire a defensive minded HC. 

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Paying $7m to a running back on a pass first offense and if you do a new deal he is looking for at least Aaron Jones type money. And I don't think he fits our scheme. And by your own admission I am taking a chance on him being back to his best 2 years removed from an ACL. 

 

Too many reasons why it doesn't work IMO. 

But he has no leverage to ask for that kind of money.  Zero percent chance anyone gives him that until after he shows on the field he can be that guy again on a new team.

 

So I can’t see any possibility of that happening (Aaron Jones money).  
 

He is going to have take a short term prove it deal before he gets into that conversation or just play this year on his current deal and have a big year to try and get it next year.  
 

Any reworked deal now would be far from Aaron Jones money.  

Edited January 29, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[purple haze]

Just now, whorlnut said:

Kinda what I’m afraid of. This is what you get when you hire a defensive minded HC. 

Beane and McD are on the same page.   That D needed reinforcements.  Now it’s about doubling down on Allen.  I’d bet money we see a WR in round 1 this year.

[whorlnut]

4 minutes ago, purple haze said:

Beane and McD are on the same page.   That D needed reinforcements.  Now it’s about doubling down on Allen.  I’d bet money we see a WR in round 1 this year.

I can’t see that happening at all…I’d love it, but I don’t think it will happen…

[BADOLBILZ]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

But he has no leverage to ask for that kind of money.  Zero percent chance anyone gives him that until after he shows on the field he can be that guy again on a new team.

 

So I can’t see any possibility of that happening (Aaron Jones money).  
 

He is going to have take a short term prove it deal before he gets into that conversation or just play this year on his current deal and have a big year to try and get it next year.  
 

Any reworked deal now would be far from Aaron Jones money.  

 

 

He has a short term prove it deal already...........for $7,217,000 guaranteed in 2022.

 

You should be concerned that you can't understand this.   Really.

 

Now if the Giants for some stupid reason decide to cut him outright..........which would be inexplicable unless he has some sort of unforeseen character issue.........then he can choose wherever he wants to play for a minimum salary for one year and hope to cash in next offseason.    He isn't signing some cheap 2-3 year deal at that point.  

 

 And calling out the people who want to pay an elite pass rusher instead of a RB?   What world aren't pass rushers worth FAR more than RB's?

 

It's just a very illogical thread.

 

[purple haze]

4 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

I can’t see that happening at all…I’d love it, but I don’t think it will happen…

If Jameson Williams or Garrett Wilson are there I can definitely see it.  Either fits that speed McD and Beane were talking about in their pressers.  

[dpberr]

I'd have no interest in trading for him. 

 

Spend your money on healthy players.

[Brandon]

Not interested.  If they really want a RB, I'd rather they spend the cap space on a veteran without the injury history or just draft one early. 

 

 

[streetkings01]

I said it in another thread……Barkley or McCaffrey will be a Buffalo Bill in 2022. Got a ton of negative comments and thumbs down.

35 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Paying $7m to a running back on a pass first offense and if you do a new deal he is looking for at least Aaron Jones type money. And I don't think he fits our scheme. And by your own admission I am taking a chance on him being back to his best 2 years removed from an ACL. 

 

Too many reasons why it doesn't work IMO. 

Fits our scheme? We don’t even have an OC so we don’t currently have a scheme.

[BADOLBILZ]

30 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

But he has no leverage to ask for that kind of money.  Zero percent chance anyone gives him that until after he shows on the field he can be that guy again on a new team.

 

So I can’t see any possibility of that happening (Aaron Jones money).  
 

He is going to have take a short term prove it deal before he gets into that conversation or just play this year on his current deal and have a big year to try and get it next year.  
 

Any reworked deal now would be far from Aaron Jones money.  

 

 

Take a stab at this contract you envision..........might as well put the icing on this cake you've made. 

 

 

 

[streetkings01]

32 minutes ago, purple haze said:

Beane and McD are on the same page.   That D needed reinforcements.  Now it’s about doubling down on Allen.  I’d bet money we see a WR in round 1 this year.

Gabe is our #2

[Hapless Bills Fan]

39 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

If the Giants were able to release him with no cap consequence it would be no different than him having a fully UNGUARANTEED contract............it is a critical distinction because then the Giants would then have leverage to re-negotiate his contract.

 

Instead they have none.

 

It's not just a "fair cop" of minor import......it makes a huge difference in regard to the possibility of "renegotiating" his contract.

 

With that deal fully guaranteed he can negotiate his next deal under the assumption that he bounces back to his 2018 form.

 

"None" is obviously not correct on leverage.  Players are widely known for preferring longer deals and loathing to play on a 1 yr contract, even if it's a lucrative 1 year contract.  I would assume that holds for Barkley who is historically not durable.  It would be in his interest to negotiate a longer deal even if the AAV is lower, provided the up front and guaranteed money is at least as good. 

 

But they certainly have a lot less leverage when he can just sit there until he likes what he sees and collect $7.2M

[Nextmanup]

39 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

This is the sort of deal Doug Whaley would do...

And to think, the majority (?) of this board defended him vehemently when he was our GM.

 

🤦‍♂️