Do players know immediately if a rookie is good or bad?

[Thurman#1]

19 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

 

Do players know immediately if a rookie is good or bad?

 

 

 

Sometimes. But without question they can't always tell. Plenty of players simply aren't good enough yet (or they're borderline) when they arrive, and when that happens, the players don't know any better than the coaches and fans how well they'll develop. 

 

If the players had known for sure that Wyatt Teller was as good as he was going to become, they'd have told the coaches.

 

These guys arrive in the NFL at around 22 years old, give or take. There's a ton of development still left, physical, mental and emotional.

 

Sure, you can tell the Bruce Smiths and probably the Tajh Boyds on the other end (NYJets 6th rounder who didn't make it out of training camp and never took an NFL snap). 

 

Players have a lot more insight than we do into what a guy is ... but as little insight as we do into what that guy will become.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 27, 2021 by Thurman#1

[mannc]

8 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

I was watching a football show Monday and an ex-player said that the other players can tell almost immediately in early practices whether a rookie has what it takes to play in the NFL.  The host brought up Josh Allen because some in the media were questioning him his 1st 2 years & the player mentioned how the Bills veterans were raving about Josh as soon as he arrived.  I remember not knowing much about Josh & after reading some of the comments in mini-camp, especially from Shady and other veterans, I was sold on Josh from his 1st camp in Buffalo based on his peer reviews.  

 

The old saying that a mistake drafting a QB sets a team back 5 years is no longer true.  While high QBs picked don't get jettisoned as rookies, teams are cutting ties a lot faster these days.  I think recent actions by teams that draft QBs in the 1st or 2nd round to some extent back up what the player said, although the teams give these guys at least a year or 2.  In recent years we've seen teams move on from QBs pretty quickly. 

 

In what will be seen as one of the smartest moves in draft history, the Cardinals recognized how bad Josh Rosen was after 1 season and did not hesitate to not only draft his replacement, but trade him for whatever they could get before his trade value fell to zero, as the Dolphins found out a year later.

 

Dwayne Haskins didn't even last 2 years in Washington after being the 15th pick of the 2019 draft.  Some of it was his attitude, but Ron Rivera had his fill of him in less than 1 year of coaching the guy.  He's currently on Pittsburgh as a project and based on other QBs history I don't expect him to be Rothlisberger's replacement.  .  

 

Paxton Lynch lasted only 2 seasons in Denver after being a 1st round (#26) pick.  He was cut when Denver chose Chad Kelly as their backup before the 2018 season. 

 

After Lynch, the next QB taken In 2016 was the Jets choice of Christian Hackenberg in the 2nd round (pick 51).  He was with the team his 1st 2 season and they never let him on the field for even 1 down those 2 years.  He was then traded to the Raiders & cut by them 3 weeks later.  

 

Johnny Manziel lasted 2 years with Cleveland after being a 1st rounder.  He didn't even make it to camp in year 3, having been cut during the offseason aftre 2 years with the Browns. 

 

When the Bills signed Brian Brohm years ago it was after Brohm, a 2nd round pick, had been waived before the season by GB and nobody put in a waiver claim & he ended up on GB's practice squad.  It only took GB 1 year to realize Brohm was a bust.  

 

The reality is it may not be evident those 1st few days, but it doesn't take long for a team to know a hit from a bust.  Even though I've focused on QBs it also applies to other positions.  I remember hearing an ex-Bill saying how that almost from day 1 of camp the team knew that 5th rounder Kyle Williams was a much better player than 1st rounder John McCargo.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

I saw that. It was Maurice Jones-Drew.  Very interesting comment.  I think he was initially talking about the Phins’ players’ lack of belief in Tua, but I might be misremembering it.

[Thurman#1]

51 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

There's a lot of moving parts to whether a player will make it in the NFL:

1) innate athleticism

2) strength

3) level of football skill at present

4) coachability

5) does he put in the physical effort in practice and the weight room

6) is he a "student of the game"

7) competitiveness

'8) injury resistance

 

My guess is there are a lot of guys who eventually make it, that are not seen as "having what it takes" initially because maybe the strength and football skill or even the athleticism aren't where they need to be.   Lorenzo Alexander, Justin Zimmer etc.    But some of them are coachable and put in the effort and study and are competitive in a good way to improve, and they keep at it until they do. 

 

But I'm guessing for every 2 players in that category who make it, there are 10 who don't, and the vet who says "yeah, I could always see he'd make it" are using 20/20 hindsight.

 

The players who have it all, or maybe are missing some skill or some strength but have the work ethic and the attitude to go with off-the-charts athleticism, Sure, I bet you can tell.

 

The injury resistance thing is the wild-card.  There are probably guys who "have what it takes" and never develop because they keep getting injured.  On the other hand, when you have a guy like Kahale Warring, I gotta wonder if the IR list becomes a place you stash a guy with off-the-charts athleticism, hoping the lightbulb will finally turn on for the rest.

 

 

I woulda thought it was the General Manager who drafted Josh Rosen....Steve Keim...and Oh, Hey, he's still there!

 

 

 

Yup.

 

And I'd probably add a few extra to your list.

 

9) Scheme fit for what that team requires

10) Susceptibility to career traps and killers like drug addiction, alcohol addiction, yes man addiction, posse addiction ... look at Aaron Hernandez, though CTE may have been a factor there.

11) Consistency of hunger after getting the big money (look at OL Mike Williams in Buffalo, he was physically far better than he needed to be, but never cared enough after getting the big contract)

12) Personal fit in the locker room and  with the coaches (look at Jonathan Martin, a massive mis-fit with Incognito and that locker room)

 

I'm moving towards smaller and smaller factors here, but basically you're right, a lot of moving parts.

 

Plenty of times nobody knows, including the players, until it becomes obvious down the road.

 

36 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

Sometimes I hear players say something like, "I knew his rookie season before he ever stepped out onto the field that he was gonna make it."

 

And I don't believe it.  I think it's 20-20 hindsight revisionism.   I don't think players are as astute about rookies as they pretend to be.  

 

Let me just mention Steve Deberg.  When he was a practice squad player in 1977, I doubt if any of his teammates expected him succeed in the NFL.  And I doubt if he changed anyone's minds when he was San Francisco's starter in 1978 and completed less than half his passes for a season long passer rating of 40!    I'm sure his teammates thought what I thought: "This guy sucks and is gonna be selling insurance soon."

 

Yet 12 years later, DeBerg attained the 3rd best passer ratings in the NFL, and the lowest INT percentage in league history, when he led the Chiefs to an 11-5 record.   

While DeBerg never became a great quarterback, I really don't think any of his 1977 or 1978 teammates predicted even his moderate success.   

 

Rookie performance doesn't always presage future performance.  

 

 

Great post. 

 

DeBerg is an excellent example, and I think you're dead on about hindsight.

Edited October 27, 2021 by Thurman#1

[LeGOATski]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I woulda thought it was the General Manager who drafted Josh Rosen....Steve Keim...and Oh, Hey, he's still there!

I mean, you know how this "who done what" conversation goes....

 

In every situation, I assume the QB drafted is one the coach also signed off on. The Cards saw only one year of said QB + coach and moved on.

 

Keim didn't draft Murray either. Cliff said very early that he'd be taking Kyler, I forget if it was before he got the job or right after.

[Albany,n.y.]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I woulda thought it was the General Manager who drafted Josh Rosen....Steve Keim...and Oh, Hey, he's still there!

He didn't do what a lot of GMs, including some past Bills GMs did-failed to recognize a mistake they made & doubled down (see Whaley-Sammy Watkins trade trying to make EJ into an NFL QB).  Over the years we've had GMs (and maybe some of the coaches too) who made personnel moves indicating they weren't willing to admit a mistake.   

Keim did something almost never done-dropped a 1st round QB after 1 season & drafted another QB.  That move saved his job & made them into the contender they are today.  They didn't flounder 3 years like the Jets, who continue to flounder, did when their 1st round QB of the class of 2018 didn't pan out.  Keim did the right thing-moved on quickly from a big mistake.  It saved his job & changed the entire projectory of the franchise.  

[Albany,n.y.]

36 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

11) Consistency of hunger after getting the big money (look at OL Mike Williams in Buffalo, he was physically far better than he needed to be, but never cared enough after getting the big contract)

 

Mike Williams was consistently hungry-I believe he hit the 400 pound mark or pretty close to it at one point of his career. 

[The Wiz]

9 hours ago, WhoTom said:

I think of it like the dating scene. It may take a few years to decide that she's "The One," but probably just a few dates to figure out that she's not.

 

Great analogy. 👍 

[Utah John]

3 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

He didn't do what a lot of GMs, including some past Bills GMs did-failed to recognize a mistake they made & doubled down (see Whaley-Sammy Watkins trade trying to make EJ into an NFL QB).  Over the years we've had GMs (and maybe some of the coaches too) who made personnel moves indicating they weren't willing to admit a mistake.   

Keim did something almost never done-dropped a 1st round QB after 1 season & drafted another QB.  That move saved his job & made them into the contender they are today.  They didn't flounder 3 years like the Jets, who continue to flounder, did when their 1st round QB of the class of 2018 didn't pan out.  Keim did the right thing-moved on quickly from a big mistake.  It saved his job & changed the entire projectory of the franchise.  

I think it didn't really matter to the Cardinals whether Rosen was good or not.  The new coach saw that Kyler Murray was the QB he wanted, so he basically staked his job and his career betting on Murray, being hired with the demand that the team draft Murray.  That's worked out well, to put it mildly.  So Rosen was expendable, and the Dolphins traded a second round pick for him.  Which is amazingly even worse than Cleveland trading a third for Tyrod Taylor -- worse in that the Dolphins gave up more, and worse in that Rosen is much worse than Taylor.

 

IIRC, Rosen wasn't that terrible in his only year in Arizona.  He had a terrible team around him so he was hard to evaluate.  Then he went to Miami, a new team and another bad team.  He's continued to bounce around, never getting into a good situation with a QB coach, offensive coordinator, and HC before being kicked down the road to another landing spot.  If Josh Allen had been cut loose by the Bills after one year, he could have had a similar career, never getting the support and coaching he needed to become a great player.  

[papazoid]

anyone can immediately form a first impression

 

most of the time it stays that way.....but not always

[Captain Hindsight]

14 hours ago, without a drought said:

Hindsight says...

You called? 

[Captain Hindsight]

3 hours ago, Utah John said:

I think it didn't really matter to the Cardinals whether Rosen was good or not.  The new coach saw that Kyler Murray was the QB he wanted, so he basically staked his job and his career betting on Murray, being hired with the demand that the team draft Murray.  That's worked out well, to put it mildly.  So Rosen was expendable, and the Dolphins traded a second round pick for him.  Which is amazingly even worse than Cleveland trading a third for Tyrod Taylor -- worse in that the Dolphins gave up more, and worse in that Rosen is much worse than Taylor.

 

IIRC, Rosen wasn't that terrible in his only year in Arizona.  He had a terrible team around him so he was hard to evaluate.  Then he went to Miami, a new team and another bad team.  He's continued to bounce around, never getting into a good situation with a QB coach, offensive coordinator, and HC before being kicked down the road to another landing spot.  If Josh Allen had been cut loose by the Bills after one year, he could have had a similar career, never getting the support and coaching he needed to become a great player.  

Rosen was awful in AZ. Like Peterman with a better arm. He only played because Bradford was so bad they had to cut him. 
 

i watched a bunch of his games before they drafted Murray and I would have moved in too. Dude had no shot. The fact Miami gave up a second rounder is astounding. Once that happened I was not at all worried about Miami. That FO didn’t have a clue

[oldmanfan]

I suspect they know pretty quickly if a guy has to work habits necessary to succeed.

[GunnerBill]

I think in most cases, yes. Within a few practices vet players can tell whether a rookie can play immediately, has some skills but needs development, or is just flat out not suited for the NFL. 

 

There will always be outliers, of course there will, but in the majority of cases I reckon if you polled a group of 5 senior vets on each roster at the end of training camp about the rookies on their team that year and then re-visited it at the end of the rookie deals of those players you would find in 90% of cases the vets nailed it. 

[auburnbillsbacker]

They can tell.  When we drafted John McCargo in the 1st and Kyle Williams in the 5th it was apparent on day 1 that Kyle was better.  

[mannc]

23 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I think in most cases, yes. Within a few practices vet players can tell whether a rookie can play immediately, has some skills but needs development, or is just flat out not suited for the NFL. 

 

There will always be outliers, of course there will, but in the majority of cases I reckon if you polled a group of 5 senior vets on each roster at the end of training camp about the rookies on their team that year and then re-visited it at the end of the rookie deals of those players you would find in 90% of cases the vets nailed it. 

I agree. Justin Herbert is another example. He graduated early from high school and participated in Oregon’s spring practices as an 18-year old. The upcoming seniors and juniors were all talking about him, saying he needed to start right away. Unfortunately, it took Mark Helfrich half a wasted season to figure that out.  I’m guessing the guys on the Chargers were saying the same thing last season when Anthony Lynn was rolling out Tyrod as the starter…

Edited October 27, 2021 by mannc

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, mannc said:

I agree. Justin Herbert is another example. He graduated early from high school and participated in Oregon’s spring practices as an 18-year old. The upcoming seniors and juniors were all talking about him, saying he needed to start right away. Unfortunately, it took Mark Helfrich half a wasted season to figure that out.  I’m guessing the guys on the Chargers were saying the same thing last season when Anthony Lynn was rolling out Tyrod as the starter…

 

I think Tyrod only started one game didn't he? Wasn't the accidental punctured lung like week 2? As I recall from Hard Knocks the biggest issue Herbert had in camp his rookie year was learning to take snaps under centre, he had some snap fumbling issues and that likely led to them deciding to roll with Tyrod week 1. I think in every other facet it was pretty clear who the more talented player was. Herbert was getting in the lineup within 3 or 4 weeks whatever happened. 

[mannc]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Tyrod only started one game didn't he? Wasn't the accidental punctured lung like week 2? As I recall from Hard Knocks the biggest issue Herbert had in camp his rookie year was learning to take snaps under centre, he had some snap fumbling issues and that likely led to them deciding to roll with Tyrod week 1. I think in every other facet it was pretty clear who the more talented player was. Herbert was getting in the lineup within 3 or 4 weeks whatever happened. 

Lynn had every intention of playing Tyrod for half the season or more.  Even after Tyrod was hurt and Herbert was lighting it up, Lynn said Tyrod was “still the starter”. That’s when I knew he would be fired.

[SF Bills Fan]

I remember Jim Kelly was pretty enthusiastic about Josh Allen early on. He was never really too happy about guys like Manuel or Peterman. They see stuff none of us fans can. 

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, mannc said:

Lynn had every intention of playing Tyrod for half the season or more.  Even after Tyrod was hurt and Herbert was lighting it up, Lynn said Tyrod was “still the starter”. That’s when I knew he would be fired.

 

I mean that would have been criminal. I think the reality would have hit him sooner than halfway through the season, but yea, coaches who want to sit talented young Quarterbacks behind bad Quarterbacks are fools. McDermott took half a game to realise that in 2018. It is one thing if you are like San Fran this year and have Garoppolo who is at least a serviceable NFL starter when healthy. Fine, sit your guy. But sitting guys to start the likes of Tyrod Taylor and Nate Peterman and the corpse of Andy Dalton's career etc... it gets you nowhere. You are better off getting your rookie out there and letting them take the lumps even if they look totally unprepared. 

[chris heff]

This is kind of an interesting exercise, don’t know if it’s valid. I wonder how many Patriot’s players at their 2000 training camp thought Brady was going to be the greatest of all time?

[colin]

5 hours ago, Utah John said:

I think it didn't really matter to the Cardinals whether Rosen was good or not.  The new coach saw that Kyler Murray was the QB he wanted, so he basically staked his job and his career betting on Murray, being hired with the demand that the team draft Murray.  That's worked out well, to put it mildly.  So Rosen was expendable, and the Dolphins traded a second round pick for him.  Which is amazingly even worse than Cleveland trading a third for Tyrod Taylor -- worse in that the Dolphins gave up more, and worse in that Rosen is much worse than Taylor.

 

IIRC, Rosen wasn't that terrible in his only year in Arizona.  He had a terrible team around him so he was hard to evaluate.  Then he went to Miami, a new team and another bad team.  He's continued to bounce around, never getting into a good situation with a QB coach, offensive coordinator, and HC before being kicked down the road to another landing spot.  If Josh Allen had been cut loose by the Bills after one year, he could have had a similar career, never getting the support and coaching he needed to become a great player.  

 

 

I just don't buy this at all.  Rosen was not cut out to be an NFL QB and while AJ might have not hit the same stats and super high level of play if he got cut and ended up somewhere else, he is a stud and would be a stud anywhere.

 

at the nfl level, small differences in skill and coaching/team cohesion can make big differences in results, but that's mainly due to most games being won or lost by a single score.  at an individual player level, there is no way on earth a character and talent like JA17 ends up like wet blanket Josh rosen.

[MarkyMannn]

18 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

 

That's nothing unique to football; I think it applies to many ways of life.

Good point. I'll say at work, you know within a month, 2 tops, a good hire from a bad hire

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Mike Williams was consistently hungry-I believe he hit the 400 pound mark or pretty close to it at one point of his career. 

 

 

Hah!!! Fair point!

[clayboy54]

Like on here... we know within the first couple posts if a newbie is going to be a good part of the community or is just a troll, or a negative nancy. It's the DNA.

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

I mean, you know how this "who done what" conversation goes....

 

In every situation, I assume the QB drafted is one the coach also signed off on. The Cards saw only one year of said QB + coach and moved on.

 

Keim didn't draft Murray either. Cliff said very early that he'd be taking Kyler, I forget if it was before he got the job or right after.

 

Steve Wilks had no say in drafting Rosen. He was not cut out to be a Head Coach anymore than Rosen was to be a QB though. Indeed his failure was entirely more predictable. Kliff had said before he got an NFL job that he would take Kyler Murray #1 in an NFL draft. 

 

As for Keim, he is tight with the owner. He would have to really screw up to be fired. 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I think it's mostly confirmation bias. 

 

If they see traits they like in a rookie, and the rookie works out, they will be able to say "See, I always knew that guy would work out". 

 

If the same player doesn't work out they can blame it on reasons X,Y, and Z instead of admitting their 1st impression was wrong. 

 

Teams invest millions of dollars and untold hours investigating who to draft in the 1st round, yet there are constantly 1st round busts (and late round success stories). If it was that easy to decide if a player was going to make it or not that wouldn't happen as often as it does. 

[Albany,n.y.]

7 hours ago, Utah John said:

I think it didn't really matter to the Cardinals whether Rosen was good or not.  The new coach saw that Kyler Murray was the QB he wanted, so he basically staked his job and his career betting on Murray, being hired with the demand that the team draft Murray.  That's worked out well, to put it mildly.  So Rosen was expendable, and the Dolphins traded a second round pick for him.  Which is amazingly even worse than Cleveland trading a third for Tyrod Taylor -- worse in that the Dolphins gave up more, and worse in that Rosen is much worse than Taylor.

 

IIRC, Rosen wasn't that terrible in his only year in Arizona.  He had a terrible team around him so he was hard to evaluate.  Then he went to Miami, a new team and another bad team.  He's continued to bounce around, never getting into a good situation with a QB coach, offensive coordinator, and HC before being kicked down the road to another landing spot.  If Josh Allen had been cut loose by the Bills after one year, he could have had a similar career, never getting the support and coaching he needed to become a great player.  

The problem with your premise is that no team would have cut Josh Allen loose after 1 season.  Only those wedded to stats didn't understand the talent that Josh showed in flashes of brilliance during his rookie year.  

 

Josh Rosen was bad his rookie year & what you're not taking into account is that the teams see their own players in practice every week & can tell a bust a lot faster than anyone watching him in games where you might only see him once a week or even worse the people who look at stats instead of seeing the player play & draw conclusions based on limited data.  

 

Rosen was bad enough for Arizona to draw one conclusion-he had to go ASAP.  I imagine one of the reasons Kingsbury got the job was because during the interview he stated he wanted to replace Rosen with Murray & the Cards management knew they had a guy who was thinking similar to them & didn't want to waste his time & possibly his only shot of being a successful NFL coach with a coach-killer at QB.  

Edited October 27, 2021 by Albany,n.y.

[Albany,n.y.]

29 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

I think it's mostly confirmation bias. 

 

If they see traits they like in a rookie, and the rookie works out, they will be able to say "See, I always knew that guy would work out". 

 

If the same player doesn't work out they can blame it on reasons X,Y, and Z instead of admitting their 1st impression was wrong. 

 

Teams invest millions of dollars and untold hours investigating who to draft in the 1st round, yet there are constantly 1st round busts (and late round success stories). If it was that easy to decide if a player was going to make it or not that wouldn't happen as often as it does. 

The biggest reason there are 1st round busts is that the NFL is so much faster than college that it is often hard to evaluate a player when he's playing in the slower speed NCAA against guys who will be working in an office after college & who could never play in the NFL.  It's such a small percentage of college players who are NFL worthy that until a college star goes against pros it is a tough judgement call how he'll respond to the NFL's speed.  

[TampaBillsJunkie]

I think you can tell "potential" immediately. A rookie might seem bad off the start but you need to take into account his coaching, the competition he played against, his mental acuity (willingness to learn) and his passion for the game.  The physical traits and abilities can be seen off the top but I think it's these aspects that separate who's going to make an impact.

 

Examples of this are Epenesa, who really seemed to struggle through his rookie year. He was undergoing a physical transformation and learning to play a new style of defense. It took awhile for the light to go on, but he seems to be making strides.  At first glance he seemed to be weak, slow and have limited pass rush moves, but that changed with coaching and his will to get better.

 

Josh has an incredible will to learn and get better. His deficiency was coaching and the level of competition he played against. At first glance he had amazing physical abilities but needed to work on the mental aspects of his game as well as his mechanics. 

 

Knox is another one who came out with a lot of "potential" but had not put it together until this year. I could go on and on, but I really don't think players immediately know who is going to shine. They do however know who has the desire, work ethic and physical ability to make it in the NFL. 

 

[jimmy10]

On 10/26/2021 at 1:55 PM, Captain Hindsight said:

I think you can tell. In Josh’s first preseason he threw some late TD to ray ray Mccloud (I think) that was a rocket and low and away. It was really impressive and made me think he’s got a chance. 
 

his first start against the chargers he had some rocket down the field too that my jaw dropped. 5 guys could make that throw 

I gave my tickets to a coworker buddy and his young son for Josh’s first preseason game. My coworker isn’t even a Bills fan, he’s a Ravens fan, and to this day he still talks about the moment Josh uncorked his first big pass. It wasn’t even a completion, but how the entire stadium just seized up and the air shifted when everyone there witnessed Josh’s ion cannon for the first time. 

[Patrick Duffy]

I don't think they would know anything "immediately". Nobody would. However I think players would get a good "read" on a rookie after a little time being around them and playing with said rookie.

 

Could maybe tell if a rookie has the "oooommmmmpppphhh" or "dat fire" along with how much heart can have and whatnot. But no, nothing will be known immediately.