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Here's What I Got Wrong About the Bills in 2020


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All season long we've seen that the Bills have missing pieces and that Allen playing lights out, and coaching doing their best to adjust, goes a long way for sweeping the team's flaws under the rug.  Unfortunately this great run in 2020 ended tonight.

 

Having written that, I am surprised that I find myself indifferent to this loss.  It's not BBFS.  It's simply that the Bills are a strong, competitive team who lost to a juggernaut, and I expect that between coaching, FO, Josh Allen, the draft, and free agency, that they're going to find a new way next year.

 

In a way, and I suppose that slightly older Bills' fans like me might have different opinions about this, this season had this dark hue of 1988.  The Bills exceeded everyone's expectations in 1988.  The O clicked.  ST were really good, for the most part, if I recall.  Bruuuuce, of course.  I was in my senior year of high school at St. Joe's, had a full head of hair, and my future was ahead of me.  Plus we'ed endured a mostly pretty horrible decade of football in Buffalo, or maybe 2, if you remember the Bills of the 1970s.  Suddenly the 1988 season had an abrupt ending, and watching the Bengals play a close SB against the Niners was this textbook lesson of watching how you would draw the Bills into that picture and how they would've fared.  Unfortunately, the 1989 season was a huge disappointment, but 1990 was $$$.  Then again, the league used to move much slower back then, so here's to hoping for a strong 2021 season -- because this team doesn't have to reboot to get to the next level, there is free agency, etc.  But I digress.

 

Like many people here I felt that the Bills would go 10-6 or 11-5 and win a playoff game.  IMO, that would've been a totally reasonable conclusion to this season, and something to build on.  The Bills going 13-3 and ending up in the AFC-CG was a boon, and in thinking through things I realized that I got a number of things wrong about this season.  So here they are, and feel free to add yours if you're into it.

 

  1. Coaching.  I didn't care that McD was hired.  The vast majority of Bills' coaches in my lifetime have been total clowns.  McD was a sane hire, and process or clapping or whatever didn't faze me, and he made a quick pivot from his OC after Year One.  What did faze me is that the Bills, while starting to show signs of competitiveness a few years ago, were still getting smoked here and there, would sleep walk in large parts of games, wouldn't finish games, couldn't adjust to their competition, etc.  This year, given holes in the roster -- some due to COVID and some not -- coaching far exceeded my expectations.  Some will call the KC game a coaching failure, but at some point you need coaching and you need players.  Tonight the Bills didn't have enough capable players to get things done.  The first half was a harbinger, and I'm surprised that KC didn't drop 50 on us.  Still, I think that the Bills are a well-coached team, and if replacing HC in the future gets them over the hump to a championship, then that's an excellent problem to have.
  2. Run game.  It sucked.  I really can't say more about it than that, except to note that I thought that it would be much better than it was.
  3. Knox.  I thought he would be good, and at times he was.  But I thought that this team was beyond drafting the likes of Zay Jones.  This team needs a good, consistent, strong TE who can move the chains and score.  Knox isn't that guy I don't think, and there is no other player on the roster who can be a Kelce.
  4. D overall.  Frazier, for the flack he gets, actually did a really good job coaching them.  But unfortunately at some point his personnel couldn't contain KC, and the missing pass rush and inability to collapse the pocket consistently were real negatives for team as the stakes got higher.
  5. Allen.  He far, far, far exceeded my expectations.  I knew that he was going to be better than the likes of EJ or Edwards or Fitz or Losman.  Then again, that bar is pretty low.  Still, Allen is the franchise QB that we've been waiting for, or at very least, short of a massive regression next season (which I don't see), he will be flat out great for a long time.  HIs game still needs some work, but don't we all?  Had someone told me that a Bills' QB would be passing for 300+ yards per game, game after game, I'd have told them that crack was whack.

 

So that's what I've got.  What have you got?

 

 

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The story of this season, bar none, is Allen's improvement.  He didn't improve incrementally, it was exponential.

 

He may have improved more than any other QB in the history of the game, from one season to the next.

 

He went from being something like the 25th best QB in the league to the 2nd or 3rd, at least on paper.

 

I always considered him a bust waiting to happen and HATED the pick the moment it was made.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Groin said:

All season long we've seen that the Bills have missing pieces and that Allen playing lights out, and coaching doing their best to adjust, goes a long way for sweeping the team's flaws under the rug.  Unfortunately this great run in 2020 ended tonight.

 

Having written that, I am surprised that I find myself indifferent to this loss.  It's not BBFS.  It's simply that the Bills are a strong, competitive team who lost to a juggernaut, and I expect that between coaching, FO, Josh Allen, the draft, and free agency, that they're going to find a new way next year.

 

In a way, and I suppose that slightly older Bills' fans like me might have different opinions about this, this season had this dark hue of 1988.  The Bills exceeded everyone's expectations in 1988.  The O clicked.  ST were really good, for the most part, if I recall.  Bruuuuce, of course.  I was in my senior year of high school at St. Joe's, had a full head of hair, and my future was ahead of me.  Plus we'ed endured a mostly pretty horrible decade of football in Buffalo, or maybe 2, if you remember the Bills of the 1970s.  Suddenly the 1988 season had an abrupt ending, and watching the Bengals play a close SB against the Niners was this textbook lesson of watching how you would draw the Bills into that picture and how they would've fared.  Unfortunately, the 1989 season was a huge disappointment, but 1990 was $$$.  Then again, the league used to move much slower back then, so here's to hoping for a strong 2021 season -- because this team doesn't have to reboot to get to the next level, there is free agency, etc.  But I digress.

 

Like many people here I felt that the Bills would go 10-6 or 11-5 and win a playoff game.  IMO, that would've been a totally reasonable conclusion to this season, and something to build on.  The Bills going 13-3 and ending up in the AFC-CG was a boon, and in thinking through things I realized that I got a number of things wrong about this season.  So here they are, and feel free to add yours if you're into it.

 

  1. Coaching.  I didn't care that McD was hired.  The vast majority of Bills' coaches in my lifetime have been total clowns.  McD was a sane hire, and process or clapping or whatever didn't faze me, and he made a quick pivot from his OC after Year One.  What did faze me is that the Bills, while starting to show signs of competitiveness a few years ago, were still getting smoked here and there, would sleep walk in large parts of games, wouldn't finish games, couldn't adjust to their competition, etc.  This year, given holes in the roster -- some due to COVID and some not -- coaching far exceeded my expectations.  Some will call the KC game a coaching failure, but at some point you need coaching and you need players.  Tonight the Bills didn't have enough capable players to get things done.  The first half was a harbinger, and I'm surprised that KC didn't drop 50 on us.  Still, I think that the Bills are a well-coached team, and if replacing HC in the future gets them over the hump to a championship, then that's an excellent problem to have.
  2. Run game.  It sucked.  I really can't say more about it than that, except to note that I thought that it would be much better than it was.
  3. Knox.  I thought he would be good, and at times he was.  But I thought that this team was beyond drafting the likes of Zay Jones.  This team needs a good, consistent, strong TE who can move the chains and score.  Knox isn't that guy I don't think, and there is no other player on the roster who can be a Kelce.
  4. D overall.  Frazier, for the flack he gets, actually did a really good job coaching them.  But unfortunately at some point his personnel couldn't contain KC, and the missing pass rush and inability to collapse the pocket consistently were real negatives for team as the stakes got higher.
  5. Allen.  He far, far, far exceeded my expectations.  I knew that he was going to be better than the likes of EJ or Edwards or Fitz or Losman.  Then again, that bar is pretty low.  Still, Allen is the franchise QB that we've been waiting for, or at very least, short of a massive regression next season (which I don't see), he will be flat out great for a long time.  HIs game still needs some work, but don't we all?  Had someone told me that a Bills' QB would be passing for 300+ yards per game, game after game, I'd have told them that crack was whack.

 

So that's what I've got.  What have you got?

 

Good post.

I had that 1988 feels about this myself.

 

I just hope we don't go "Bickering Bills" where we backslide next year

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Two biggest things I got wrong were...

 

1)  I thought Tremaine Edmunds would establish himself as a rising star, and he backslid.  I'm a little annoyed that he got a Pro Bowl nod because I think it kinda complicates the issue of moving on from him as an every down player.

 

2)  I thought Diggs would basically be the guy we saw in Minnesota, sometimes flashing as a top-10 WR and then other times dropping off the map.  He insisted he was an elite player and it turns out he is.

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3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good post.

I had that 1988 feels about this myself.

 

I just hope we don't go "Bickering Bills" where we backslide next year

I remember hanging out with my best bud from high school and his family in North Buffalo where we watched the debacle against Cleveland in 1989 (or I guess it was early 1990).  At the end of the game, his father, knowing that we were underage, still gave each person in the room a shot of whisky.

 

Of course, free agency didn't exist back then like it does now, so the Bills had to fill in the blanks over the course of the 1988 and 1989 off seasons by way of the draft.  The reason why I have hope is that the Bills will attract FAs who want to have a chance at winning a SB, and this FO is competent enough to draft players to fill open spots on the roster.  Further "Bickering Bills" was the result of weak coaching back then.  It should've never gotten that out of hand.

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Last year it was obvious what was necessary; we needed a #1 WR.  We got that, we became a juggernaut, the Bills just had their best season in 25 years.

 

Still not nearly good enough to hang with KC.  The path forward is unclear.  How do we make another huge step??  I think we need to shore up the lines and CB2 position before anything else but personally I am confused as to how a team gets substantially better than what we saw this year.

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14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good post.

I had that 1988 feels about this myself.

 

I just hope we don't go "Bickering Bills" where we backslide next year

 

I consider this more of a reverse of those years...Bills went to AFC championship game in their first trip to the playoffs under Kelly and then got knocked out in the Divisional round against Cleveland in 1989 before the run to 4 SB's starting in 1990.

 

We did it in the reverse order if we make it to the SB next year

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2 minutes ago, InEnemyTerritory said:

Last year it was obvious what was necessary; we needed a #1 WR.  We got that, we became a juggernaut, the Bills just had their best season in 25 years.

 

Still not nearly good enough to hang with KC.  The path forward is unclear.  How do we make another huge step??  I think we need to shore up the lines and CB2 position before anything else but personally I am confused as to how a team gets substantially better than what we saw this year.

It's D line and a pass rusher or two for starters.  Bend but don't break won't break KC.  That's for sure.

 

And a TE.  Most definitely a great TE.

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2 minutes ago, Groin said:

It's D line and a pass rusher or two for starters.  Bend but don't break won't break KC.  That's for sure.

 

And a TE.  Most definitely a great TE.

I agree with everything here.  Trade for a DE (Mack?), get Star back, and your DL looks substantially better.

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Allen, 100%. 

 

I expected Diggs to be good, but I did not expect the prime Antonio Brown like 127-1535-8 statline and impact. That's incredible. 166 targets??! I'm already excited for the Allen/Diggs connection next year.

 

I thought our backs would be better. I thought Tremaine Edmunds would be better. I expected more sacks with Addison, Oliver maturing, Epenesa. Feels like both the Oliver and Epenesa picks are still up in the air. I don't believe Epenesa was picked as a long-term project so it would have been nice if either could have made more of a statement this season. 

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7 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I consider this more of a reverse of those years...Bills went to AFC championship game in their first trip to the playoffs under Kelly and then got knocked out in the Divisional round against Cleveland in 1989 before the run to 4 SB's starting in 1990.

 

We did it in the reverse order if we make it to the SB next year

True, but if memory serves, there was no free agency (like it exists today) in 1989.  It was mostly drafts and trades and people off the streets.

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2 minutes ago, InEnemyTerritory said:

I agree with everything here.  Trade for a DE (Mack?), get Star back, and your DL looks substantially better.

Yes, for the ***** that Star got before the pandemic, you'd think that he was a leper.  No, he could eat other players up.  You can't replace that, or maybe you can, but you need to find the same type of player.

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1 minute ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I don’t know where you get a Tight End like that.

 

Pitts won’t be there when we pick obviously and the Raiders aren’t trading Waller.

I like Pat Freiermuth in the draft, but he probably won't be there by the end of the second round

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25 minutes ago, ALLEN1QB said:

This team needs Bruce Smith type player on defense. Is Hughes doing anything I never hear his name? A Derrick Henry type running back would be nice.

Lol we don't need one of the best defenders in NFL history. We just need to not have 5 below average starters in our front 7. That would be a good start.

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1 minute ago, InEnemyTerritory said:

Last year it was obvious what was necessary; we needed a #1 WR.  We got that, we became a juggernaut, the Bills just had their best season in 25 years.

 

Still not nearly good enough to hang with KC.  The path forward is unclear.  How do we make another huge step??  I think we need to shore up the lines and CB2 position before anything else but personally I am confused as to how a team gets substantially better than what we saw this year.

 

It'll be interesting to see what McDermott and Beane do.

 

In one press conference, Daboll made the comment that we only have one first round pick on offense.  I would argue we have two, since we spent a first round+ to acquire Diggs and he has been worthy of the acquisition.  In any event, our OL is 2 2nd round picks; 2 4th round picks; and an UDFA.  They don't seem to quite measure up against the best OLs for either rush or pass, although I believe both Allen and play design with outlets could counter this.

 

We have, I believe, 5 first round picks on Defense - Tre' White, Tremaine Edmunds, and Ed Oliver from our drafts; Vernon Butler from 2016 Panthers; Jerry Hughes from 2010 Colts.  (am I missing someone?) 

 

Overall we are 11th in the league on Offensive spending.  We are top-3 in the league on WR spending, and that's the only place on offense where we're top 5.  Top 8 on OL; TE top-12; RB 23 and that's only counting the guys who seldom play like Yeldon and Taiwan Jones; QB 24th though that will change soon. 

 

We are 2nd in the league in defensive spending, largely on DL - $52.8M on DL.  #7 for safety;  #11 for LB; #12 for CB.  Overall, I think it may be fair to say that right now we are overpaying for underperformance on D, especially on DL.  Part of this is our #1 draft picks Edmunds, Oliver, Harrison Phillips and Epenesa underperforming perhaps high expectations, and our FA signing Butler likewise (though he was playing hurt today).

 

It will be interesting to see how things go forward.  I believe that McDermott's instinct will be to focus the draft and FA entirely on D, and I believe that would be a mistake.  We need an upgrade on OL and TE, at least.

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4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

It will be interesting to see how things go forward.  I believe that McDermott's instinct will be to focus the draft and FA entirely on D, and I believe that would be a mistake.  We need an upgrade on OL and TE, at least.

So I'm not entirely sure how it will shake out.  You'd think that given a well-coached team and solid (I'm not calling them great, but solid) FO they'd do the math about Star returning and other prospects and not break the bank on D.  And frankly, I don't think that they really have to.

 

Also, don't forget the deficit at the RB position.  I'm beginning to rethink my stance about RBs being a dime a dozen.  It was so very woeful watching them this year, the Bills being pass first or not.

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20 minutes ago, InEnemyTerritory said:

I agree with everything here.  Trade for a DE (Mack?), get Star back, and your DL looks substantially better.

 

Exactly how are you planning to fit Mack in with our cap situation and why do you think Chicago is going to trade him?  This is real life, not Madden.

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11 minutes ago, Groin said:

So I'm not entirely sure how it will shake out.  You'd think that given a well-coached team and solid (I'm not calling them great, but solid) FO they'd do the math about Star returning and other prospects and not break the bank on D.  And frankly, I don't think that they really have to.

 

Also, don't forget the deficit at the RB position.  I'm beginning to rethink my stance about RBs being a dime a dozen.  It was so very woeful watching them this year, the Bills being pass first or not.

 

I haven't broken down the most recent games

 

But

 

Most of the times when I've watched our run game get stuffed, it's because elite Ds are able to off blocks from our OL.

 

Our backs have nowhere to go

 

If that's still true, we could draft a first round RB and they'd look like crap behind our OL

 

Boettger has been a pleasant surprise at pass blocking but he's not "all that" in the run game.

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46 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good post.

I had that 1988 feels about this myself.

 

I just hope we don't go "Bickering Bills" where we backslide next year

It's more likely we backslide next year then move forward.

 

I'm really interested to see how they handle this.

 

We have no cap room, no extra picks, and a lot of needs.

 

Teams like Miami and New England have cap space and/or picks or both.

 

We signed some mediocre free agents to overpriced contracts and they're going to have to get really creative

 

We need imo:

 

+OL(S)

+DL

+RB

+CB(S)

+LB

+TE

+WR 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I haven't broken down the most recent games

 

But

 

Most of the times when I've watched our run game get stuffed, it's because elite Ds are able to off blocks from our OL.

 

Our backs have nowhere to go

 

If that's still true, we could draft a first round RB and they'd look like crap behind our OL

 

Boettger has been a pleasant surprise at pass blocking but he's not "all that" in the run game.

I'm mostly on board with this take, but I found that the RBs on roster in 2020 didn't have a strong first gear, and perhaps for that reason there were no consistent nor strong runs outside.

7 minutes ago, Sharky7337 said:

It's more likely we backslide next year then move forward.

 

I'm really interested to see how they handle this.

 

We have no cap room, no extra picks, and a lot of needs.

 

Teams like Miami and New England have cap space and/or picks or both.

 

We signed some mediocre free agents to overpriced contracts and they're going to have to get really creative

 

We need imo:

 

+OL(S)

+DL

+RB

+CB(S)

+LB

+TE

+WR 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Miami needs a QB or Tua needs to get his head straight.

 

NE has a ton of loot, sure, but no QB ATM, and for a player like Stafford that's gonna be $$$.

 

It's funny how fast that money with dry up.  The Bills aren't exactly hog tied, and much can be accomplished with trades and a better than average draft.

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I do things I got wrong this year where the defense and Devin Singleterry

 

I don’t know what it is with Singleterry but it just seems to me that he is not running as hard as he was in his first year his balance was great in his first year and he used to bounce off of tackles or make players miss tackles just didn’t see it he was not good and we need to keep looking

 

then there is the defense this defense had a fall off like the year that we had the fall off and the Rex Ryan defense where we expected to be awesome and we ended up not to be in we spent so much money on the defensive side of the ball to get so little production from these guys need better

 

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good post.

I had that 1988 feels about this myself.

 

I just hope we don't go "Bickering Bills" where we backslide next year

 

I agree with you guys that this feels like '88.

 

The good thing is, this team already has a Super Bowl caliber culture in the locker room. They won't need a year to learn how to become a team.

 

The bad thing is, we don't have Bruce...and maybe a few other pieces that team had. Get 'er done Beane!

 

What could put this team over the top imo (if Beane can get it done in one year and if we have the cap room) is to

try and get the following in either the Draft and/or Free Agency:

Stud pass rusher

Top-tier CB opposite Tre

A monster 1-technique DT 

A mobile, but mauling RG (if Cody can't take that next step)

depth at LB

 

I think we could get by with our running backs. To me the lack of run game was more due to schemes, game plans, and the O-line rather than RB talent (of course neither of these guys is a Thurman Thomas---which would be nice to have, but I like them both as players---more than a lot of other posters). I mean, it's hard to get in a rhythm as a RB when you get 2-3 carries in a half, or don't touch the ball until the 2nd quarter, and when you do you're met at or near the line of scrimmage on the majority of your carries. Having said that though, I am definitely not opposed to adding to the RB room---I just don't think that it's as big a priority as other spots (especially in today's NFL). A stud would be nice, but maybe just more versatility will do the job. The run game is up to the coaches to improve, imo.

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1. I too thought Knox would have a better year

2. I thought Allen would be better but not this good

3. My fear that Edmunds would suck came to fruition

4. O-line was better than I thought.  Shame Ford went down with an injury. It's a lost year of development.  He was not good at the start of the year but neither were any of the guards.  Now there are questions again at 4 of the 5 spots.  Will they bring back Morse and his huge contract? Can they afford Williams?  Is Ford a Guard or a Tackle?  

5. I thought Diggs and Brown would each get 75 catches.  I never imagined what Diggs and Beasley would be able to do.

 

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2 hours ago, Helpmenow said:

Agree 100%. With my above post, Need another quality OLinemen big time. 

Where on the line?   This line performed very well until today when they got manhandled....

Dawkins, Boetenger , Morse,  Feliciano and Williams were a pretty good line.  the only person whom you may need to replace would be Morse due to his high salary.  But you have to sign Feliciano and Williams who will be FAs.

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2 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

1. I too thought Knox would have a better year

2. I thought Allen would be better but not this good

3. My fear that Edmunds would suck came to fruition

4. O-line was better than I thought.  Shame Ford went down with an injury. It's a lost year of development.  He was not good at the start of the year but neither were any of the guards.  Now there are questions again at 4 of the 5 spots.  Will they bring back Morse and his huge contract? Can they afford Williams?  Is Ford a Guard or a Tackle?  

5. I thought Diggs and Brown would each get 75 catches.  I never imagined what Diggs and Beasley would be able to do.

 

All correct.

Beane and McD get a lot of credit for patching together a budget (except Morse) O line that did really well this year, particularly in pass protection.

Edmunds: still not sure he's the guy you want in the middle. There's a lot of wasted athleticism with him playing there. Someday some coach will free him up playing on the outside and he'll be a force. But that's unlikely to be McDermott and the Bills.

Knox: I'm fine with him, but if we're waiting for him to emerge as a big weapon we're making a mistake. What really hurt this team is the inability of Kroft to stay healthy and become a significant part of the offense. Knox on offense and Addison/Murphy on defense sucked up a ton of salary with very little in terms of contribution. I won't rip Beane for those signings because other moves (Diggs) were obviously so good that they offset the bad moves, but these ones still hurt.

Back to the drawing board again on the TE position I'm afraid.

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I just don't understand how our o line just got abused tonight. Literally pressure every snap from just there d line. We got man handled. I know spags has had some good defensives before but man it was brutal to watch. Every year we see the same things play out, the aggressive teams always win. Passive teams always lose. We were the passive team tonight and it showed in our players efforts.

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I agree with all your points but question the need to not hold Frazier accountable. This was a game coming in where the previous game kelce had dropped two tds on us. To let him come off the line untouched, catch 10 balls in the first half, NEVER FORCE MORE THAN A SINGLE PUNT OR STOP MORE THAN ONE DRIVE WITHOUT GIVING SOME POINTS, is being terribly out coached.  Look at KCS  D, they were very aggressive against the #1 qb supposedly against the blitz. Pressure killed josh once more( at least two huge yardage loss sacks, an int, an intentional grounding, two other balls that barely missed being picked ) and I wish Frazier / Mcd would coach that way.

 

I know PM is good,  but getting 0 sacks, almost no pressure , no deflected passes etc, was a path to a second essential blow out. This reminded me of Mcd being owned by Belichick until this year. Reid owned / owns him now. Our o improved , Allen improved dramatically while our d looked quite bad in all our losses. Frazier had no answer for kc or the titans , barely got by the colts only because Frank left 10 points on the field, and we got by the pats with a fumble .  I also believe edmunds is being misused. Please move him outside, where he could be another bisquit! Get a real MLB like white from Tampa!   I wish we would get a more Aggressive D coordinator to influence McD. I hope Frazier gets the Texas job as I don’t see Mcd ever having the strength to make a change unless forced on him by  an o UPWARD move for a coordinator. This is one time his culture may hold him back. Sometimes you need to move on. With you on everything else but this game was my last straw of support for quiet, passive Frazier. Nice, great ,man.  Avg at best DC.  I don’t think it was a huge talent gap, just that our talent now is being misused. 

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The one thing that played out is the Bills are the 2nd best team in the AFC, despite their horrid running game and some other deficiencies.  
Coming into the season Bills were thought to be one of the top 8 out of 20 teams but moved to 2nd.  

Getting into the playoffs and then winning 2 playoff games is certainly a big step up from last few years.  

 

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1) The lost in the AFC Championship game in a loud stadium in KC against the world champs.

 

 

End thread

 

Seriusoly

 

1) Actually our lines on both sides of the ball were periodically abused.

2) We had no run game largely owing to #1 above.

 

The screwy calendar with Covid non-sames didnt help us either.

12 hours ago, Wyobills89 said:

I just don't understand how our o line just got abused tonight. Literally pressure every snap from just there d line. We got man handled. I know spags has had some good defensives before but man it was brutal to watch. Every year we see the same things play out, the aggressive teams always win. Passive teams always lose. We were the passive team tonight and it showed in our players efforts.

 

It happened to us before, recall the Rams game, second half we couldn't stop A Donald, we were lucky to come out with a win.

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