BITE ME Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 (edited) Is it because it is Disney/ESPN owned? Putting aside how terrible they are at picking elections, the preseason predictions for the AFC East are beyond bad. What is even crazier is they had Dallas and the Eagles with better records than the Bills and Washington as the worst team in the NFL. Patriots 9-7 Bills 8-8 Jets 7-9 Dolphins 6-10 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo Edited January 5, 2021 by BITE ME 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER DOT COM Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Guess we're *****? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 There was one prediction, SI maybe, that had us going 6-10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER DOT COM Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, PromoTheRobot said: There was one prediction, SI maybe, that had us going 6-10. but how good is SI at picking... oh nevermind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBBills Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 (edited) Who takes predictions seriously? Isn't the main word to not take it seriously in the "prediction" part? Edited January 5, 2021 by TBBills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domitian Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 (edited) 9 minutes ago, BITE ME said: Is it because it is Disney/ESPN owned? Putting aside how terrible they are at picking elections, the preseason predictions for the AFC East are beyond bad. What is even crazier is they had Dallas and the Eagles with better records than the Bills and Washington as the worst team in the NFL. Patriots 9-7 Bills 8-8 Jets 7-9 Dolphins 6-10 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo The predictions are based on a model that uses historical data. If a team or its players play better (Allen), or worse (Dallas), than their historical levels, that will throw predictions like this off. Obviously it also can't account for major stars getting injured either. It's not a crystal ball, it's just a statistical model. Edited January 5, 2021 by Domitian 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProcessAccepted Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said: but how good is SI at picking... oh nevermind But how good is SI at ________? Unless your talking about sucking the answer is pretty bad. Sad since they were a decent outlet in the past. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBobs Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Domitian said: The predictions are based on a model that uses historical data. If a team or its players play better (Allen), or worse (Dallas), than their historical levels, that will throw predictions like this off. Obviously it also can't account for major stars getting injured either. It's not a crystal ball, it's just a statistical model. That's true of all models and a fair point. It still doesn't explain how they could only predict two teams above ten wins. That's historically completely unpredicted and suggests a major problem with their modeling. Edited January 5, 2021 by BuffaloBobs double post edit issue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Oh bite me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 43 minutes ago, BITE ME said: Is it because it is Disney/ESPN owned? Putting aside how terrible they are at picking elections, the preseason predictions for the AFC East are beyond bad. What is even crazier is they had Dallas and the Eagles with better records than the Bills and Washington as the worst team in the NFL. Patriots 9-7 Bills 8-8 Jets 7-9 Dolphins 6-10 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo Tough schedule made it seem like 9 or 10 would be enough to win the division pre-season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, BITE ME said: Is it because it is Disney/ESPN owned? Putting aside how terrible they are at picking elections, the preseason predictions for the AFC East are beyond bad. What is even crazier is they had Dallas and the Eagles with better records than the Bills and Washington as the worst team in the NFL. Patriots 9-7 Bills 8-8 Jets 7-9 Dolphins 6-10 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo Why didn't you call them out in August? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I wasn't aware people did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Why is this an issue? Predictions are just made for fun. I don't know that anyone places any significant weight on any of them. The only reason to give one more credence than another is if the author has a good track record. It's really no different than political polls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Domitian said: The predictions are based on a model that uses historical data. If a team or its players play better (Allen), or worse (Dallas), than their historical levels, that will throw predictions like this off. Obviously it also can't account for major stars getting injured either. It's not a crystal ball, it's just a statistical model. What's it good for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BfloBillsFan Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said: There was one prediction, SI maybe, that had us going 6-10. I assume it won't be the same going into next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reader Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Yes...let us bash the website that lists Allen as the best QB in the league. 538 QB rankings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LabattBlue Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, BITE ME said: Is it because it is Disney/ESPN owned? Putting aside how terrible they are at picking elections, the preseason predictions for the AFC East are beyond bad. What is even crazier is they had Dallas and the Eagles with better records than the Bills and Washington as the worst team in the NFL. Patriots 9-7 Bills 8-8 Jets 7-9 Dolphins 6-10 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo How do you sleep at night? Have you tried 539 or 540 instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, BITE ME said: Is it because it is Disney/ESPN owned? Putting aside how terrible they are at picking elections, the preseason predictions for the AFC East are beyond bad. What is even crazier is they had Dallas and the Eagles with better records than the Bills and Washington as the worst team in the NFL. Patriots 9-7 Bills 8-8 Jets 7-9 Dolphins 6-10 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo They don't "pick" elections. They give a percentage of how likely x candidate is to win off of y candidate based on an aggregate of polls and other historical voting data. This weekend the Bills have a 76% chance of beating the Colts based off the criteria they use in their model. If the Colts win it means they caught a lucky spade to complete their flush on the river. Edited January 5, 2021 by Doc Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeviF Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Bunch of nerds that can easily be ignored. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsbackto81 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said: There was one prediction, SI maybe, that had us going 6-10. Peter King had the Dolphins winning the division😆😆 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 hours ago, BITE ME said: Is it because it is Disney/ESPN owned? Putting aside how terrible they are at picking elections, the preseason predictions for the AFC East are beyond bad. What is even crazier is they had Dallas and the Eagles with better records than the Bills and Washington as the worst team in the NFL. Patriots 9-7 Bills 8-8 Jets 7-9 Dolphins 6-10 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo Fivethirtyeight has been exceptionally good at picking presidential and congressional elections. Statistically I don’t think any other group has been better over the last couple decades. Eight years ago they called every state correctly for the presidential, senatorial and gubernatorial elections except one senate seat. I guess that’s why people take their predictions seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said: Peter King had the Dolphins winning the division😆😆 Yes he did! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chandler's Hands Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloBobs said: It still doesn't explain how they could only predict two teams above ten wins. That's historically completely unpredicted and suggests a major problem with their modeling. At the start of the season they do some analytical work to have all teams "regress to the mean". I.e. the very worst teams are more likely than not to get better and the very best teams are more likely than not to get worse. So in aggregate all the records get drawn towards 8-8 to start. Regressing to the mean is not a statement on any one particular team, it's a blanket statement on how statistics work in a population. Also, when 538 makes those predictions, aside from the QB, they literally are only looking at game scores from the past. The more recent the game, the more weight it has. But in the start of the season the most recent games were from last season. This approach is somewhat boring in a sense though... Aside from Allen being the #1 rated QB on their site (all from statistics, not a judgement call), if you look at the historical ELO of every team it says that this Bills team is currently the best team in franchise history. The prior highest ELO was right after the 51-3 smackdown of the Raiders, prior to the first SB loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njodogg Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 It's because their predictions, are in fact, accurate on a large scale. I actually emailed them for historical data about two years ago and its uncanny. Games where they predict the winner of the match is very accurate given a large sample size. I broke it out into ranges of 51-55,56-60, 61-65, 66-70, etc. All of those hold true. Meaning if a team they predicted had a 68% chance of winning it would fall in my range of 66-70% chance. Long story short the whole point was to find an edge when books set moneylines wrong. You just need a HUGE bank roll to ensure it works. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BITE ME Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 On 1/5/2021 at 4:43 PM, Reader said: Yes...let us bash the website that lists Allen as the best QB in the league. 538 QB rankings Even more ridiiculous. Josh Allen is not the best QB in the NFL. Any serious Bills fan knows this. Mahomes and Rogers are clearly better quarterbacks. It is fair to say he is the 3rd best quarterback in the NFL and even that is debatable. Mahomes is clearly the best QB in the NFL. It really is not debatable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JESSEFEFFER Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 41 minutes ago, BITE ME said: Even more ridiiculous. Josh Allen is not the best QB in the NFL. Any serious Bills fan knows this. Mahomes and Rogers are clearly better quarterbacks. It is fair to say he is the 3rd best quarterback in the NFL and even that is debatable. Mahomes is clearly the best QB in the NFL. It really is not debatable. Without researching it, I suspect that their QB ELO rankings have a large weighting toward recent games. Josh definitielly had a more productive Dec/Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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