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Why do people take 538 NFL predictions seriously?


BITE ME

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Is it because it is Disney/ESPN owned?  Putting aside how terrible they are at picking elections, the preseason predictions for the AFC East are beyond bad.  What is even crazier is they had Dallas and the Eagles with better records than the Bills and Washington as the worst team in the NFL.

 

Patriots  9-7

Bills  8-8

Jets 7-9

Dolphins 6-10

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Edited by BITE ME
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9 minutes ago, BITE ME said:

Is it because it is Disney/ESPN owned?  Putting aside how terrible they are at picking elections, the preseason predictions for the AFC East are beyond bad.  What is even crazier is they had Dallas and the Eagles with better records than the Bills and Washington as the worst team in the NFL.

 

Patriots  9-7

Bills  8-8

Jets 7-9

Dolphins 6-10

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

The predictions are based on a model that uses historical data.  If a team or its players play better (Allen), or worse (Dallas), than their historical levels, that will throw predictions like this off. Obviously it also can't account for major stars getting injured either.  It's not a crystal ball, it's just a statistical model.

Edited by Domitian
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6 minutes ago, Domitian said:

 

The predictions are based on a model that uses historical data.  If a team or its players play better (Allen), or worse (Dallas), than their historical levels, that will throw predictions like this off. Obviously it also can't account for major stars getting injured either.  It's not a crystal ball, it's just a statistical model.

 

That's true of all models and a fair point.

 

It still doesn't explain how they could only predict two teams above ten wins. That's historically completely unpredicted and suggests a major problem with their modeling.

Edited by BuffaloBobs
double post edit issue
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43 minutes ago, BITE ME said:

Is it because it is Disney/ESPN owned?  Putting aside how terrible they are at picking elections, the preseason predictions for the AFC East are beyond bad.  What is even crazier is they had Dallas and the Eagles with better records than the Bills and Washington as the worst team in the NFL.

 

Patriots  9-7

Bills  8-8

Jets 7-9

Dolphins 6-10

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

Tough schedule made it seem like 9 or 10 would be enough to win the division pre-season.  

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1 hour ago, BITE ME said:

Is it because it is Disney/ESPN owned?  Putting aside how terrible they are at picking elections, the preseason predictions for the AFC East are beyond bad.  What is even crazier is they had Dallas and the Eagles with better records than the Bills and Washington as the worst team in the NFL.

 

Patriots  9-7

Bills  8-8

Jets 7-9

Dolphins 6-10

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

 

Why didn't you call them out in August?

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Why is this an issue?  Predictions are just made for fun. I don't know that anyone places any significant weight on any of them.  The only reason to give one more credence than another is if the author has a good track record. It's really no different than political polls. 

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1 hour ago, Domitian said:

 

The predictions are based on a model that uses historical data.  If a team or its players play better (Allen), or worse (Dallas), than their historical levels, that will throw predictions like this off. Obviously it also can't account for major stars getting injured either.  It's not a crystal ball, it's just a statistical model.

What's it good for?

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1 hour ago, BITE ME said:

Is it because it is Disney/ESPN owned?  Putting aside how terrible they are at picking elections, the preseason predictions for the AFC East are beyond bad.  What is even crazier is they had Dallas and the Eagles with better records than the Bills and Washington as the worst team in the NFL.

 

Patriots  9-7

Bills  8-8

Jets 7-9

Dolphins 6-10

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

How do you sleep at night?  Have you tried 539 or 540 instead?

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1 hour ago, BITE ME said:

Is it because it is Disney/ESPN owned?  Putting aside how terrible they are at picking elections, the preseason predictions for the AFC East are beyond bad.  What is even crazier is they had Dallas and the Eagles with better records than the Bills and Washington as the worst team in the NFL.

 

Patriots  9-7

Bills  8-8

Jets 7-9

Dolphins 6-10

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

They don't "pick" elections.  They give a percentage of how likely x candidate is to win off of y candidate based on an aggregate of polls and other historical voting data.  This weekend the Bills have a 76% chance of beating the Colts based off the criteria they use in their model.  If the Colts win it means they caught a lucky spade to complete their flush on the river.

Edited by Doc Brown
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