Is Houston showing that even a Franchise QB isn't a guarantee against being bad?

[Mr. K]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

When Stafford had a top 3 D, the Lions lost the WC game.  When he had top 10 D, they went 6-10.

 

Without Nuk, Watson is having the best season of his career. 

Honestly I never thought Detroit had ranked that good on defense. I also don't think Stafford has had a running back get close to 1000 in a season maybe not even a tandem. They have been missing a lot in Detroit for a while... part of the reason my wife needs to jump ship to the Bills vessel. 

 

If Watson had Nuk this year it may have added or taken away from his production. I would like to think it would've added since he is top 5 at his position. It could've taken away if Hopkins demands targets to the point it hurts the offense.. They also have a defense that isn't good enough and I can't speak on their running game but all phases matter to each other towards winning. Off year for the team and on year for the QB. Both have to align. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, popcornpam said:

All I know was Hopkins was really surprised that it happened I don’t know the date exactly I could look back

 

Hopkins was surprised, yes. But Watson hadn't signed his deal then. 

[John from Riverside]

Lions have been showing that for years

[HappyDays]

5 hours ago, Bob in STL said:

Rumor I heard from someone in Buffalo is that the Texans are very interested in Daboll (HC) and Joe Schoen (GM).  I hope this is false.  

 

Eh I think people are a little too frightened about the prospect of Daboll coaching another team in the AFC. Being a good OC does not automatically make one a good HC. As the Texans themselves recently discovered.

[Doc]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

And covid allowing by the time they need to pay anyone Watson's contract will be looked at as part of a higher cap. 

 

You have a point.  By the time they get good players again...

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

You have a point.  By the time they get good players again...

 

Exactly. There is another year that will be tricky (although there are some easy cuts as well for 2021), but then they basically have free reign. A good regime could have them back in the playoffs in 2 seasons IMO. 

14 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Eh I think people are a little too frightened about the prospect of Daboll coaching another team in the AFC. Being a good OC does not automatically make one a good HC. As the Texans themselves recently discovered.

 

To be fair to BOB I don't think he was a terrible coach. Won divisions (albeit weaker divisions) with Hoyer and the Brocketship. But he is a dreadful GM who let his ego totally takeover. BOB the GM got BOB the Head Coach fired. 

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

Watson and Watt should request trades.  I think Watt would love the winning and culture here 

 

true, but this is the year of no holding and Fuller not getting injured until later.   watson likely would be even better this year with Nuk.  

 

 

I really don't think so.  

[Reks Ryan]

With a solid stable organization and a healthy franchise QB, you should expect to be above .500 every year.  

 

Only Looking at years the franchise QB played all 16 games.  

- Rodgers only years at .500 or below.  GB went 6 - 10 in 2008 (his first full year starting) and 6-9-1 in 2018.  Otherwise winning record and I believe in playoffs. 

- Roethlisberger.   Only once at .500, 8 - 8  in 2013.  All other healthy years, Steelers had a winning record.

- Rivers - He had a few down years.   2015 4-12, 2016 5-11, 2019 5 - 11.   But, the majority of his seasons have been double digit wins.   I would say Chargers not as stable as Pitt and GB, and whereas Big Ben and Rodgers have been top 5 QBs most of their career, Rivers has been more like top 10 and even lower in recent years. 

 

It's the exception that proves the rule, but franchise QB and organizational stability are still most predictive for sustained success.

[GunnerBill]

15 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

I really don't think so.  

 

I am not convinced either, as great as Nuke is. The Texans overall might have a win or two more because the balls that Coutee and Fells dropped and fumbled with games on the line might have gone to Hopkins and been caught, but the difference overall would have been minimal. However, there were lots of people convinced Watson was gonna drop off without him. 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Mr. K said:

Honestly I never thought Detroit had ranked that good on defense. I also don't think Stafford has had a running back get close to 1000 in a season maybe not even a tandem. They have been missing a lot in Detroit for a while... part of the reason my wife needs to jump ship to the Bills vessel. 

 

If Watson had Nuk this year it may have added or taken away from his production. I would like to think it would've added since he is top 5 at his position. It could've taken away if Hopkins demands targets to the point it hurts the offense.. They also have a defense that isn't good enough and I can't speak on their running game but all phases matter to each other towards winning. Off year for the team and on year for the QB. Both have to align. 

 

In 2013, Lions had Reggie Bush rush for 2000.  7-9.  Stafford is a dud.

 

It's hard to argue that after a few years with Hopkins and then his best year after Hopkins was gone, that Watkins would have been even better with Hopkins this year.

 

 

[TBBills]

6 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Well...I guess the Lions do every year too with Stafford but Watson's Texans routinely make the playoffs...they hosted us last year after winning the division...

 

Watson has MVP caliber numbers this year...

 

Almost 4500 yards passing, completing 70.1% of his passes with 30 TDs to 6 INTs and a 112.6 rating. It is almost impossible for a team to be this bad with a QB performing at this level.

 

And now they currently would be drafting 3rd overall?

 

Just seems like a huge dropoff considering Watson has played very well this year and how much QBs can do to influence the outcome of games.

 

Does this fly in the face of people who say Franchise QBs will guarantee you 7 or 8 wins? Certainly seems to.

Saints did it also... We have seen it plenty of times.

[BuffaloBill]

Personnel management matters.  The Texans fell off the cliff.

[HappyDays]

25 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

To be fair to BOB I don't think he was a terrible coach. Won divisions (albeit weaker divisions) with Hoyer and the Brocketship.

 

I would gladly take O'Brien as our OC next year if Daboll does in fact leave. His play design is great, he just can't manage a team.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, TBBills said:

Saints did it also... We have seen it plenty of times.

 

Saints were a good example. 7-9, 7-9, 7-9 with Brees at Quarterback. But their defenses were 31st, 31st and 27th. When Drew's defense has been 26th or better he has gone to the playoffs. 

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I would gladly take O'Brien as our OC next year if Daboll does in fact leave. His play design is great, he just can't manage a team.

 

Same.  As an OC he can't do a lot of damage.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I would gladly take O'Brien as our OC next year if Daboll does in fact leave. His play design is great, he just can't manage a team.

 

He runs the same basic scheme as Daboll too. My worry is him not being a personality fit with our staff. 

[White Linen]

You cannot get rid of weapons until your QB is fully developed.   

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Saints were a good example. 7-9, 7-9, 7-9 with Brees at Quarterback. But their defenses were 31st, 31st and 27th. When Drew's defense has been 26th or better he has gone to the playoffs. 

 

Oh yeah...under Rob "I will have a job in 5 minutes" Ryan who then said he wasn't allowed to run his scheme.

[FireChans]

Nothing is a guarantee against being bad.

 

A franchise QB means you always have a chance to be competitive. Give Houston a mediocre QB and they are winless this season.

 

Its why the Pats get so much love. They never had a down year. Peyton had them. Brees had them. Rivers had them. Ben had them. Ryan had them. Wilson had them.

 

Having a great QB means that at any point in time, you are a year or two away from contending. You will have good years, bad years and in between years. But if you get a solid group around “the guy” you can win it all.

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Oh yeah...under Rob "I will have a job in 5 minutes" Ryan who then said he wasn't allowed to run his scheme.

 

Yea the two 31sts were under Rob. He actually had a decent first year there in 2013 when their D was decent but it was a historically bad two year stretch in 14 and 15. 

[Chicken Boo]

8 hours ago, popcornpam said:

I’m from Rochester. I live in Houston and he signed his contract before Bob traded away Hopkins!

 

Hopkins was traded in March.  Deshaun re-signed in September.

[Orlando Tim]

Josh with no more talent in 2018 won more than Watson has this year as a rookie. Watson is a good qb but not special.

[FireChans]

20 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

Josh with no more talent in 2018 won more than Watson has this year as a rookie. Watson is a good qb but not special.

Josh is 2018 had 18 TD's. Watson has 33 this year.

 

This take is not special.

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Josh is 2018 had 18 TD's. Watson has 33 this year.

 

This take is not special.

 

That is the kind way of putting it. That take sucks. 

 

The Bills of 2018 were still a top 5 defense. The Texans defense is currently 30th. 

[Doc]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

That is the kind way of putting it. That take sucks. 

 

The Bills of 2018 were still a top 5 defense. The Texans defense is currently 30th. 

I’ve heard a worse take…

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

The Hopkins trade may be the worst in NFL history.  They got a 2nd round pick and an old running back in exchange for a top-10 player in the NFL.

[Orlando Tim]

23 hours ago, FireChans said:

Josh is 2018 had 18 TD's. Watson has 33 this year.

 

This take is not special.

Josh in 2018 averaged almost 2 TDs per start, about the same as Watson and he was hot garbage for his first 5 starts. Watson is clearly far better than 2018 Josh but that does not make him special. 

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

Josh in 2018 averaged almost 2 TDs per start, about the same as Watson and he was hot garbage for his first 5 starts. Watson is clearly far better than 2018 Josh but that does not make him special. 

Most people would disagree with you.  Watson is special.

[FireChans]

23 hours ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

Josh with no more talent in 2018 won more than Watson has this year as a rookie. Watson is a good qb but not special.

 

10 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

Josh in 2018 averaged almost 2 TDs per start, about the same as Watson and he was hot garbage for his first 5 starts. Watson is clearly far better than 2018 Josh but that does not make him special. 

Weird how the story changes from the original post.

 

Watson is legit. You are incorrect.

[Orlando Tim]

Just now, FireChans said:

 

Weird how the story changes from the original post.

 

Watson is legit. You are incorrect.

The story did not change- I wrote the words Watson is good. We can disagree but don't say I change my story. I think there are 5 QBs in the league who can elevate a team and Watson is not one of them.

10 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Most people would disagree with you.  Watson is special.

I will ask which games did you watch where watson took a losing team to victory? I don't mean it sarcastically, I have watched him a bunch- 10+ times- and never seen him be the guy like Josh or Mahomes. What games have you seen him take over? I will admit it if I see it.

[BobbyC81]

On 12/28/2020 at 8:20 AM, mattynh said:

On any given year with poor leadership and cap managment, sure.  I think Houston will be a force down the road though.  Watson is great and they will be a team to deal with moving forward.   The QB is one of three parts you need, the others are coaching and cap management.  The Saints have struggled with cap management.  Tee Falcons have struggled with coaching and cap management.

 

In general if you get a top 5 type QB you should be able to consistently compete.  I still think we need the element of time to put Allen in that category.

 

The other thing, a couple examples of teams that had success only to fall off once the OC left, Philly and Atlanta....the new OC (if Daboll leaves) will be really important.    

I wonder if Dorsey could handle the job if promoted?  Of course, he could go with Daboll.   You’d have some continuity with Dorsey.  I would not want to see a new OC with a very different offense who brings in a new QB coach.  Josh has excelled this year being with the same OC for 3 years and QB coach for two. 

[FireChans]

17 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

The story did not change- I wrote the words Watson is good. We can disagree but don't say I change my story. I think there are 5 QBs in the league who can elevate a team and Watson is not one of them.

I will ask which games did you watch where watson took a losing team to victory? I don't mean it sarcastically, I have watched him a bunch- 10+ times- and never seen him be the guy like Josh or Mahomes. What games have you seen him take over? I will admit it if I see it.

lol you must have missed this one

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiSv4ReZj7A

Edited December 30, 2020 by FireChans

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

The story did not change- I wrote the words Watson is good. We can disagree but don't say I change my story. I think there are 5 QBs in the league who can elevate a team and Watson is not one of them.

I will ask which games did you watch where watson took a losing team to victory? I don't mean it sarcastically, I have watched him a bunch- 10+ times- and never seen him be the guy like Josh or Mahomes. What games have you seen him take over? I will admit it if I see it.

I could care less what you think.  Continue to be ignant

[SirAndrew]

On 12/28/2020 at 12:44 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

There was a time in Stafford's career where making the playoffs every year was anticipated (twice in first 4 years, three times in first 6 years).

 

St Louis Rams were one of the big examples of how a franchise QB does not cure all ills.  When they drafted Sam Bradford, they went 7-9 his rookie season with Pat Shurmur as OC, missed winning the NFC West on a tiebreaker, and the future looked bright.  But Pat Shurmur was hired away to be the head coach of the Cleveland Browns and Spagnuolo had the genius idea to replace him with Josh McDaniels, hot off being fired by the Broncs, and the Rams went 2-14 with Bradford looking like an incompetent joke (next year under Schottenheimer, he resumed looking as though he had potential)

 

Coaching matters.  Overall talent matters.  You need a QB, but with very very rare exceptions a QB is not enough.

 

If he were, Rodgers might have more than one Superbowl belt

Sam Bradford was a franchise QB ? I think everyone agrees with your greater point that QB’s need a supporting cast, but true franchise QB’s overcome being on a weak team. Obviously they aren’t going to become Super Bowl champs, but it’s possible to succeed more than guys like Stafford and Bradford.
 

Look at what Allen did with mediocre talent on offense last season. Allen has all the intangibles that separates him from the Bradford’s and Stafford’s of the world. QB’s are putting up insane numbers in today’s NFL. There’s so much more than just the numbers. I’m not saying Stafford is a bad QB, but he does lack plenty. Watson’s team is a having a bad season, I’ll cut Watson slack for that since he’s still putting up great numbers. With that said, if Watson QB’s a bunch of 5 wins teams for the rest of his career I’d begin to question him. I doubt that will happen because his intangibles are twice that of a Stafford. 

 

Edited December 30, 2020 by SirAndrew

[mannc]

On 12/28/2020 at 8:25 PM, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

The Hopkins trade may be the worst in NFL history.  They got a 2nd round pick and an old running back in exchange for a top-10 player in the NFL.

It’s bad, but it’s not even the worst trade the Texans have made in the last year.  

[Penfield45]

On 12/28/2020 at 10:39 PM, Buffalo Timmy said:

Josh with no more talent in 2018 won more than Watson has this year as a rookie. Watson is a good qb but not special.

delusional take 

 

Watson is playing like a top 5 QB on one of the worst offenses in the league 

[Orlando Tim]

3 minutes ago, Penfield45 said:

delusional take 

 

Watson is playing like a top 5 QB on one of the worst offenses in the league 

So who is Watson better than right now- Josh, Rodgers, Mahomes, Wilson, Brees, LJ, Tannehill?

[mannc]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

So who is Watson better than right now- Josh, Rodgers, Mahomes, Wilson, Brees, LJ, Tannehill?

The last three on your list. Brees isn’t even top 20 right about now.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

So who is Watson better than right now- Josh, Rodgers, Mahomes, Wilson, Brees, LJ, Tannehill?

 

The top 5 is very clear to me - it's Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen, Watson and Wilson. Brees is done. Brady is wildly inconsistent at this point and has had some absolute clunkers. And yes, Deshaun Watson is a lot better than Jackson and Tannehill. 

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

The last three on your list. Brees isn’t even top 20 right about now.

 

I love Drew, he has been my favorite player in the league for about 15 years so I hate to say this.... I don't even know if he gives the Saints the best chance to win at this point.