Can someone explain QBR & Allen's 75.2% QBR vs. SF???

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, No_Matter_What said:

I agree with you mostly but it is still an anomaly that he didn't have a single 300 yard game first two seasons. Random dudes in random teams with random offensive personnel have 300y games quite often. Allen not having a single one last year was bizarre.

 

Random dudes in random teams aren't often playing with defenses that only allow 17 points per game. He went over 250 four times but three of those were in comfortable wins where the Bills didn't need to keep throwing. The 4th was the loss to Cleveland where to be honest he should have gone over 300 and he just missed opportunities to make plays. It was a bit of an anomaly but when you look at the reasons behind it they do make sense. 

[No_Matter_What]

Anyway OPs title is relevant and I'd like to know the answer. I don't want to mock QBR metric, I would like to know how it works. If often doesn't match eyetest or raw statistics, and this 49ers game seems like a prime example. It seems really hard to do more than JA did. Is it so low because of that Moss fumble? Or because Allen's "fumble" recovered by Dawkins which wasn't?

 

Josh had better QBR 5 games this season and 13 games in his career.

 

So anybody has a clue how they count it and what is the reason for it to be so low this time?

[Franco_92]

Almost positive that 75 is a really good QBR. You might be mixing it up with passer rating which was like 139 last night. 

 

Mahomes has 31 TD and 2 picks, 8.2 ypa, 318 ypg, only 2 fumbles and has a season qbr of 85. Last year his was 79, the mvp year was 80.

 

Had allen run a little more and not fumbled he'd be up there.

 

This QBR is higher than 9 of bradys 15 seasons played since they started tracking 

Edited December 8, 2020 by arcane

[Orlando Tim]

To the original question part of QBR is situational concepts so a fumble on the 5 is worse than a fumble on the 50 and slicing and dicing when up 17 is not equal to doing it while down 3. I am not sure how they value your elements but they definitely do.

[No_Matter_What]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Random dudes in random teams aren't often playing with defenses that only allow 17 points per game. He went over 250 four times but three of those were in comfortable wins where the Bills didn't need to keep throwing. The 4th was the loss to Cleveland where to be honest he should have gone over 300 and he just missed opportunities to make plays. It was a bit of an anomaly but when you look at the reasons behind it they do make sense. 

Yep everything you say is correct and helps to explain why he never reached 300y until 2020. Still an anomaly though 😁

[Billsfan1972]

26 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Good coaches coach to their talent. The Bills had a lot of talent on defense and not much on offense. That is why they coached that way. Look at Belichick. He is 6-6 with a paper thin roster and Cam Newton not putting up many big numbers. For years he won with Brady throwing all over the yard. He knows if he tried that with his current roster they'd be 1-11 (still beat the Jets :D). You coach to your talent. McDermott now has an offense that he can trust. His Quarterback has developed, he has an elite playmaker.... it makes the difference. If McDermott had rookie Josh throwing 45 times to Andre Holmes and Zay Jones there wouldn't have been 300 yard games it would have been beyond ugly. 

And Cam has 2 300 yard games this year (yea yea losses)......  The point is Allen had none in two years, which is almost impossible to fathom, regardless of talent.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Billsfan1972 said:

And Cam has 2 300 yard games this year (yea yea losses)......  The point is Allen had none in two years, which is almost impossible to fathom, regardless of talent.

 

It was just an anomaly. But as I explained above when you actually look at why it makes sense. It is a pretty arbitrary mark anyway.

[Ralonzo]

80% completions

75% QBR

 

Some of those completions were due to bad QB play?

[djp14150]

QBR=crap

[Billsfan1972]

42 minutes ago, teef said:

who would have thought the op would create another self indulgent thread after a game?!?!?

Here we go again..... I asked about a 75.2 QBR rating.  Yep if asking about Allen, I will respond. What about the OP was self indulgent.  

 

I'd look up some of your posts/threads but not worth my time/effort or probably of any substance.

[Rochesterfan]

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

 

I'd love to see all those posts I defended him in 2018 & 2019, blaming it on Daboll and the play calling holding him back and now we see how being aggressive and paying playmakers actually works in the NFL..... Who would have thought that????😜😉

 

And as is typical - you would be wrong.

 

It was not Daboll holding him back as has been pointed out to you several times.  The Bills were aggressive, but lacked playmakers (as Beane stated in the off-season).

 

The Bills never babied or even slimmed down the playbook - Daboll talked several times about that.  The Bills/Daboll’s philosophy was we are going to attack and get Josh as much experience as possible and then use that as teaching moments.  Sort of a tough love approach.

 

They were so aggressive even last year that repeatedly true fans talked about why isn’t Daboll running more - you are getting 5 YPC from Singletary and he is only getting 10 runs a game - run him more - pull some passes away from Josh.  They recognized that the more they threw - the more he was exposed to and the more he learned.

 

What held Josh back in 2018 was the WR group - it was terrible and they made no plays for him - he was also so raw as to be scary.  2019 - the WRs improved (although Beane stated after last season they needed more) and the passing improved and Josh started to learn, but still had way to much he did not recognize.  2020 is a true WR group that makes plays for him (both routine and special), but the biggest difference is everything he has seen because of how aggressive Daboll was in his first 2 years.  Josh is at the point he is at because Daboll did not hold him back in his first 2 years - he trusted him to make some plays and learn from mistakes (and some of those mistakes were costly).

 

Daboll deserves a ton of credit for what he did in 2018 and 2019 to get Josh to this point today.

[Billsfan1972]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It was just an anomaly. But as I explained above when you actually look at why it makes sense. It is a pretty arbitrary mark anyway.

And the 23 games they lost 2017-19, none could have been due to bad offense and the inability to throw for 300?  Again a circular argument.

 

You say it doesn't matter & I say no other team went a year without doing it once (in the last decade, though maybe you'll find 1-2) and McD did it 3 staright years!!!!  More then an anomaly.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Billsfan1972 said:

And the 23 games they lost 2017-19, none could have been due to bad offense and the inability to throw for 300?  Again a circular argument.

 

You say it doesn't matter & I say no other team went a year without doing it once (in the last decade, though maybe you'll find 1-2) and McD did it 3 staright years!!!!  More then an anomaly.

 

Yes - some of those games were down to bad offense. You are clearly not reading what I write. But they were not because we didn't throw enough. They were because we had bad skill position guys in 2017, awful skill guys in 2018 and average skill guys in 2019. Plus a QB who doesn't throw in 2017, a rookie who was overmatched in 2018 and in 2019 Josh was still growing missed an opportunity to do it vs Cleveland but we also didn't need to throw a lot to win because of our defense. 

 

So yes, had our offense been better in 2017-2019 we might have won some of those games. What you seem to be suggesting is if we had just thrown it more those years our offense would magically have been better. That is the bit that simply doesn't add up. 

[prissythecat]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes - some of those games were down to bad offense. You are clearly not reading what I write. But they were not because we didn't throw enough. They were because we had bad skill position guys in 2017, awful skill guys in 2018 and average skill guys in 2019. Plus a QB who doesn't throw in 2017, a rookie who was overmatched in 2018 and in 2019 Josh was still growing missed an opportunity to do it vs Cleveland but we also didn't need to throw a lot to win because of our defense. 

 

So yes, had our offense been better in 2017-2019 we might have won some of those games. What you seem to be suggesting is if we had just thrown it more those years our offense would magically have been better. That is the bit that simply doesn't add up. 

 

A lot of what the OP says doesnt add up.        But he does like his LAMP 

[Seasons1992]

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

Player	Cmp	Att	Yds	Comp	TD	Int	Sk	Rate	Run Att	Yds	TD
Josh Allen	32	40	375	80%	4	0	1	139.1	6	11	0

 

Ladies and gents, this is called a franchise QB. Soak it in, we haven't had a proper bath in 25 years.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

You say it doesn't matter & I say no other team went a year without doing it once (in the last decade, though maybe you'll find 1-2) and McD did it 3 staright years!!!!  More then an anomaly.

 

Seattle, Russ's rookie year - no 300 yard passing games. Then over the next 3 seasons they only did it 5 times. Almost as though teams with really good defenses throw for 300 yards less often isn't it? How strange. 

[Rochesterfan]

5 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And the 23 games they lost 2017-19, none could have been due to bad offense and the inability to throw for 300?  Again a circular argument.

 

You say it doesn't matter & I say no other team went a year without doing it once (in the last decade, though maybe you'll find 1-2) and McD did it 3 staright years!!!!  More then an anomaly.

 

And has been repeatedly stated - 300 yards is a stupid, meaningless, and trivial number just pulled out of nowhere because it is round.

 

The Bills have continued to evolve and as they increased the WR talent and as Josh has gotten experience- the passing yards have come.

 

This year with the trust of the offense - McDermont has been one of the more aggressive coaches in terms of 4th downs and kicks - why?  Because he knows what they can do.  

[Ralonzo]

I hope Daboll is willing to stay with the Bills until they get that Super Bowl win. He'd be Buffalo's President For Life.

[Seasons1992]

2 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

I hope Daboll is willing to stay with the Bills until they get that Super Bowl win. He'd be Buffalo's President For Life.

 

Every member of the franchise can be President at that point......stay in down, get free drinks and dinner every day!

[teef]

20 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Here we go again..... I asked about a 75.2 QBR rating.  Yep if asking about Allen, I will respond. What about the OP was self indulgent.  

 

I'd look up some of your posts/threads but not worth my time/effort or probably of any substance.

oh please.  this thread is just a reiteration of the others you've made.  it always goes back to how shocked you are 300 yard games and an open passing offense didn't happen the first two years, that it was mcd strictly being too conservative, you weren't entertained, etc.

 

some very informed posters have given you excellent reasons and explanations as to why this was the case, but since you wouldn't be able to complain anymore, your comment is simply, "let's agree to disagrees".   in other words...you won't listen to reason, and would rather cry like a man baby.  have at it champ.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

23 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

80% completions

75% QBR

 

Some of those completions were due to bad QB play?

 

uh NO

 

 

FWIW  GMFB said Josh had 1 Fumble!!!

[teef]

17 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes - some of those games were down to bad offense. You are clearly not reading what I write. But they were not because we didn't throw enough. They were because we had bad skill position guys in 2017, awful skill guys in 2018 and average skill guys in 2019. Plus a QB who doesn't throw in 2017, a rookie who was overmatched in 2018 and in 2019 Josh was still growing missed an opportunity to do it vs Cleveland but we also didn't need to throw a lot to win because of our defense. 

 

So yes, had our offense been better in 2017-2019 we might have won some of those games. What you seem to be suggesting is if we had just thrown it more those years our offense would magically have been better. That is the bit that simply doesn't add up. 

and this is it.  he's just insistent that if the staff had dialed up more pass plays, the offense would be what it is today.  it could have been disastrous.  

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, teef said:

and this is it.  he's just insistent that if the staff had dialed up more pass plays, the offense would be what it is today.  it could have been disastrous.  

 

Yea. For one, you could have dialed up 100 pass plays a game for Tyrod, he'd still have run around in circles behind the line of scrimmage cradling the football like his newborn child and refusing to let it go. 

[teef]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea. For one, you could have dialed up 100 pass plays a game for Tyrod, he'd still have run around in circles behind the line of scrimmage cradling the football like his newborn child and refusing to let it go. 

now that's in my head.

[BillsShredder83]

3 hours ago, artmalibu said:

 

Josh fumbled an Dion recovered it.  Maybe they mixed that up.

 

The announcers had a few mixups too, called Matt- Mike, Brandon- Jeff and said the Bills started in good field position when they started at their own 10.  

Credited good playcalling to Brian McDermott at one point too lol what disrespect

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I think QBR is still a good stat. Josh is top 6-7 in both QB Rating and QBR. I'll take it. Josh has had games where his QB Rating was 77 (Bad) but his QBR was 67 (Good). This was the Titans game. And most of us agreed he played well despite the overall bad QB Rating. 

 

But even with the two fumbles 75 QBR seems awfully low for last nights performance. And you would assume QBR would be smart enough to not credit Allen with the Moss fumble. 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, BillsShredder83 said:

Credited good playcalling to Brian McDermott at one point too lol what disrespect

 

They did.... and yet this crew is STILL better than last year's MNF clown show. It might be the best MNF crew since Tirico and Gruden. Which doesn't say a lot. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea. For one, you could have dialed up 100 pass plays a game for Tyrod, he'd still have run around in circles behind the line of scrimmage cradling the football like his newborn child and refusing to let it go. 

 

[BearNorth]

Daboll and Dorsey deserve much credit for how they have developed Josh and this offense scares every team they play.  The scheme on the TD to Davis was magic.

 

Now if we could only get our running game going, January home playoff game in the OP probably needs a healthy dose of smash mouth football. Also we are still fumbling too much, and cold weather doesn't help ball security.

 

[Royale with Cheese]

30 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And the 23 games they lost 2017-19, none could have been due to bad offense and the inability to throw for 300?  Again a circular argument.

 

You say it doesn't matter & I say no other team went a year without doing it once (in the last decade, though maybe you'll find 1-2) and McD did it 3 staright years!!!!  More then an anomaly.

You have zero ability to understand a point.  How many times do people have to tell you this before you start understanding that you just don’t get it?

[BillsFanSD]

2 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

Tyrod was really good at QBR 🥴🥴

 

crap metric 

I feel like that's the case for most "next gen" stats.  If you can't explain them and the results don't match up with what I'm seeing on the field, they're probably just unhelpful.

[Albanybillsbacker]

Haha,... Mullens had a 70 QBR for the game, just 5 points less than Allen.  Makes sense.  I know I would have had a hard time picking which QB had a better game last night...🤦‍♂️

[Heitz]

3 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 Thought I heard a “Ryan” McDermott, too

 

Ryan McDermott?  I know him...

 

https://www.snowboarder.com/featured/meet-masters-ryan-mcdermott-snowboard-tuning-guru/

 

Dude is literally one of the best snowboard tuners in the world AND a heck of a nice guy (even if he is a Boston fan).

 

🤣 🤣 🤣

[JESSEFEFFER]

1 hour ago, No_Matter_What said:

Yep everything you say is correct and helps to explain why he never reached 300y until 2020. Still an anomaly though 😁

 

 

Just like rushing TDs, rushing yds (esp. scrambles) directly bleed from his passing stats.  I don't care how they score points just that they do so often enough.  I only care slightly in the sense that the rest of the team respects what he produces and does not think he is "selfish."  Plenty of mouths to feed and doing so makes for a stronger team.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

No

 

LOL

 

No one can explain total QBR.  It's something like 10,000 lines of code, with a bunch of subjective perceptions baked in to some of the numbers that go into it.

[JESSEFEFFER]

It might be true that there is a performance under pressure component to this.  Aside from one blindside hit allowed by Dawkins, Josh was very well protected.  It was maybe the best protection he has had and it may have a dampening effect on his tQBR?

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

It might be true that there is a performance under pressure component to this.  Aside from one blindside hit allowed by Dawkins, Josh was very well protected.  It was maybe the best protection he has had and it may have a dampening effect on his tQBR?

It was good, not great protection.  He moved a lot in the pocket and kept many plays alive.  

[Billsfan1972]

58 minutes ago, teef said:

and this is it.  he's just insistent that if the staff had dialed up more pass plays, the offense would be what it is today.  it could have been disastrous.  

No better, schemes more effective passing.  How many times in 2018/19 did the Bills telegraph run plays and seem to play between the 20's vs. this years much more aggressive play.

 

Again you see what you think you saw in 2017/19 & I saw something different.  2014/16 24-24, 2017/19 25-23 (and two playoff losses).....  

 

I asked about QBR......  https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/3918298/josh-allen

 

He threw for 122 vs. KC (14/27 and an int) and had a higher QBR!!!!!

[billsfan_34]

2 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

I get the stat sucks for Josh to get the fumble. 

We all know Moss screwed up.

 

As the stat sheet says - Again by the rule Josh had full possession last. 

 

Which is F'd up because a botched snap is a fumble by the QB.

 

Maybe the NFL will update the Fumble when they correct the INT that never happened!!!! ???

 

I think the same should go for interceptions also

[teef]

13 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

No better, schemes more effective passing.  How many times in 2018/19 did the Bills telegraph run plays and seem to play between the 20's vs. this years much more aggressive play.

 

Again you see what you think you saw in 2017/19 & I saw something different.  2014/16 24-24, 2017/19 25-23 (and two playoff losses).....  

 

I asked about QBR......  https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/3918298/josh-allen

 

He threw for 122 vs. KC (14/27 and an int) and had a higher QBR!!!!!

you start by talking about qbr, but couldn't help yourself in the last paragraph, whining about the offensive output over the first few years.  again, many people gave you perfect. logical and correct explanations as to why that happened.  you've chosen to ignore it.  that's fine, but please let's not act like we don't see this thread weekly.  you can dress it up how ever you want, but it's the same, played out complaint.    you keep posting records over periods of time too with no context.  in mcd two first years here, he had a rookie qb and tyrod.  sure...ignore it.  

 

you made a thread recently asking why posters on here can be so nasty.  the tread was quickly closed, but i think we have our answer.