Week 9: Seahawks at Bills

[JohnNord]

8 hours ago, Penfield45 said:

 

seattle puts up 30 points per game with ease. 

 

if the Bills offense can't reach 30 this weekend they can forget about winning. 

Exactly... I’m not suggesting trying to make this a low scoring affair.  What I’m saying is that the Bills offense needs to try to control time of possession and efficient in the redzone.  
 

More time for the Bills offense means less Seattle possessions.  
 

On defense they need to get Seattle off the field at least a few times.  If the offense limits possessions but the defense allows a TD every time they have the ball, it’s not going to matter.  

[EmotionallyUnstable]

2 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

Exactly... I’m not suggesting trying to make this a low scoring affair.  What I’m saying is that the Bills offense needs to try to control time of possession and efficient in the redzone.  
 

More time for the Bills offense means less Seattle possessions.  
 

On defense they need to get Seattle off the field at least a few times.  If the offense limits possessions but the defense allows a TD every time they have the ball, it’s not going to matter.  

I think TOP is rather insignificant in a game like this. As you said, they are going to score, and a LOT. We need to score too. It doesn’t matter if you have the ball for a 10 minute drive in the 3rd quarter if you don’t finish with 6. 
 

Like you said, it has to be a balance. Idc how long they have the ball, if a Bills offensive drive ends with 6, im good.

[97bills]

2 hours ago, Weatherman said:

Tre’Davious Haynesworth?  Just kidding, he’s obviously playing injured. 

I guess everyone is on D lol

[Hapless Bills Fan]

https://www.nfl.com/videos/kurt-warner-s-outlook-for-seahawks-bills-in-week-9

 

Kurt is polite about it, but you can tell he thinks very little of the Bills.

[billsfan89]

32 minutes ago, BillsMafi$ said:

The Seahawks are on pace to allow 7,376 yards this season, which would be an NFL record.
 

 

If out offense doesn’t produce Sunday. There’s some real issues 

 

If the offense can put up 28 points they should be ashamed of themselves. 

8 minutes ago, 97bills said:

I guess everyone is on D lol

 

This team is banged up. I hate the phrase hurting for a bye, but this team is really hurting for the bye. 

[WideNine]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Wondering where you obtained these rankings? I have the Bills as overall defensively #15 on PPG, #16 on YPG, both before and after the Pats game.

Before, #15 for pass ypg and #21 for rush ypg.  After, #11 for pass ypg and #26 for rush ypg.

 

Of note that because of the schedule changes, an unusually large # of teams have different # of games so sources like pro football reference and NFL.com, so that skews data a bit.  Above rankings are corrected for # games.

 

Overall I'd say we're average in defense, rush defense numbers are overall skewed by the KC game where we allowed more than 2x the league average of rush ypg.

 

 

Agreed

 

 

Agreed with that last.

 

The Bills defense is a bit of a mystery wrapped in an enigma to me.  Overall we're exactly mediocre on D.  15th for PPG, 16th for YPG.

Looking at rush D, we're precisely split: 4 games worse than league average (one by a lot); 4 games better than league average.

Pass D, we're overall better than league average, almost top 10 - yet we have 6 games where we've given up worse than league average pass yards.

I don't quite know what to make of it.  That burning smell is me thinking about it.

 

football db and nfl.com, BUT you are right there are a lot of teams that have only played 7 games this year so that definitely would skew those total yards.

 

So just looking at the 14 teams that have played 8 games they are a combined 51/59/2 wins/losses/ties. KC, the Bills, and Tampa skew these wins as having really good records... the majority of these teams have poor records only 6 of them with winning records - one is sitting at 500.

 

In just that pool of 14 teams we are:

 

11th for total rushing yards given up.

6th for total passing yards given up.

This is mirrored in the yards/game as well.

 

Not sure what that tells us overall it is pretty hard without teams having played the same number of games which is usually the outlier with a few bye-weeks, but will need some sort of correction by the league at some point. I would not mind the Bills and the 14 teams on that list getting some kind of bye-week.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 5, 2020 by WideNine

[billsfan89]

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

https://www.nfl.com/videos/kurt-warner-s-outlook-for-seahawks-bills-in-week-9

 

Kurt is polite about it, but you can tell he thinks very little of the Bills.

 

Warner is fair. The defense stinks and Josh has to adapt to zone defenses. I trust Wilson to win a shootout more than Josh but Josh gives this team a punchers chance. 

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Penfield45 said:

we also come up against some top 5 defenses 

 

Chargers, SF, Denver 

We knew this years schedule was going to be a gauntlet and it has been. 

[njbuff]

Seattle has given up over 500 yards 3 times this year.

 

Ouch.

 

But the Bills under McDermott haven't really taken advantage of playing against a bad D, meaning a really good team with a bad D.

 

Against Seattle would be a nice start.

Edited November 5, 2020 by njbuff

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, WideNine said:

 

football db and nfl.com, BUT you are right there are a lot of teams that have only played 7 games this year so that definitely would skew those total yards.

 

So just looking at the 14 teams that have played 8 games they are a combined 51/59/2 wins/losses/ties. KC, the Bills, and Tampa skew these wins as having really good records... the majority of these teams have poor records only 6 of them with winning records - one is sitting at 500.

 

In just that pool of 14 teams we are:

 

11th for total rushing yards given up.

6th for total passing yards given up.

This is mirrored in the yards/game as well.

 

Not sure what that tells us overall it is pretty hard without teams having played the same number of games which is usually the outlier with a few bye-weeks, but will need some sort of correction by the league at some point. I would not mind the Bills and the 14 teams on that list getting some kind of bye-week.

 

Please to note that the rankings I gave in the post you quoted were per-game, calculated from the data available on pro-football-reference.

I don't see any superior value in limiting your view to teams that have played the same number of games.

 

"I have the Bills as overall defensively #15 on PPG, #16 on YPG, both before and after the Pats game.

Before, #15 for pass ypg and #21 for rush ypg.  After, #11 for pass ypg and #26 for rush ypg."

 

This is calculated for all 32 teams, by normalizing to games played.

 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I’m usually on the edge of pessimism and always think every game is going to be tough..I have a good feeling about this week. I’m not really sure why. I feel like everyone fears the Seahawks because of Wilson but I have a feeling we will be in this thing. God knows I can be wrong but I’m getting a Rams vibe here.

[WideNine]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Please to note that the rankings I gave in the post you quoted were per-game, calculated from the data available on pro-football-reference.

I don't see any superior value in limiting your view to teams that have played the same number of games.

 

"I have the Bills as overall defensively #15 on PPG, #16 on YPG, both before and after the Pats game.

Before, #15 for pass ypg and #21 for rush ypg.  After, #11 for pass ypg and #26 for rush ypg."

 

This is calculated for all 32 teams, by normalizing to games played.

 

 

Yes I noted that and I was looking at total yards yielded vs PG.

 

How did you normalize for games played?

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, billsfan89 said:

Warner is fair. The defense stinks and Josh has to adapt to zone defenses. I trust Wilson to win a shootout more than Josh but Josh gives this team a punchers chance. 

 

Warner is fair, but he's all about the Offense and he doesn't go very deep.

 

The truth is, while Seattle's offense has been great - they've had to be, to stay ahead of the yards and points their defense gives up.  It's very very rare to see a top team which wins consistently give up more yards on defense, than they've gained on offense yet that's just where Seattle is - 414/game gained, 460/game given up. 

 

And it's not a result of one game skewing their average either. They've done this in 5 of their 7 games.  Ironically, one game where they didn't, was the game they lost!   Is it that they're burying other teams, so those teams are throwing a lot to catch up?  I took a quick look at the halftime score in their games and the answer is "Not really".  They were behind in 1 game at the half (Vikes up by 13), tied at the half (Pats).  They've only had one game (the game they lost, ironically - the Cardinals game) where they were leading by 10 points at the half.  The other 4 games went into halftime as nominally a 1 score game.

 

The difference, of course, is turnovers.  They're overall +7 in takeaways vs giveaways.  I remember one year when the Bills shot out to an early winning record buoyed by a positive takeaway ratio, people here were pretty clamorous that it wasn't sustainable.

It would be interesting to see if the Bills could build a good lead by halftime, what would they do?

 

8 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

Yes I noted that and I was looking at total yards yielded vs PG.

 

How did you normalize for games played?

 

Just divided  - points for or against/# games, yds given up or gained/# games, etc.  Dumped the data into a spreadsheet, I'm lazy.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, njbuff said:

Seattle has given up over 500 yards 3 times this year.

Ouch.

But the Bills under McDermott haven't really taken advantage of playing against a bad D, meaning a really good team with a bad D.

Against Seattle would be a nice start.

 

Question: who do you consider the Bills have played, that would constitute a good team with a bad D?

 

55 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I’m usually on the edge of pessimism and always think every game is going to be tough..I have a good feeling about this week. I’m not really sure why. I feel like everyone fears the Seahawks because of Wilson but I have a feeling we will be in this thing. God knows I can be wrong but I’m getting a Rams vibe here.

 

Could we do the Rams vibe thing without the 3-score comeback this time?  My heart says "please" and "TIA"

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Question: who do you consider the Bills have played, that would constitute a good team with a bad D?

 

 

Could we do the Rams vibe thing without the 3-score comeback this time?  My heart says "please" and "TIA"

I will take a win anyway we can get it

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I will take a win anyway we can get it

 

Oh, me too me too.  I just thought while you're getting that Rams vibe, you might be able to dampen that feature.  Unless of course, we're the ones coming back...

[eball]

I’m just checking in to suggest that the Seahawks are a bit worried about playing Josh Allen and the Bills offense this weekend.  It’s really amazing how this fan base takes every opportunity to go in the worst direction possible.

 

Go Bills.

[judman]

My son has been a Seahawks fan for years. Who can blame him?  He’s 18 and they have been really good for all the time he remembers. I’d love it if he was a Bills fan, but he’s watched me swear and wretch for years. 
 

Anyway,  we had planned on this Seahawks game for years. He’s a senior in high school this year.  I was gonna make this a great weekend for us (hotel, wings, etc.) And to see that we would have been treated to 70 degrees and sunshine in early November is particularly tough to see. 
 

Sucks to have that taken from us. 
 

Go Bills!

[WideNine]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Warner is fair, but he's all about the Offense and he doesn't go very deep.

 

The truth is, while Seattle's offense has been great - they've had to be, to stay ahead of the yards and points their defense gives up.  It's very very rare to see a top team which wins consistently give up more yards on defense, than they've gained on offense yet that's just where Seattle is - 414/game gained, 460/game given up. 

 

And it's not a result of one game skewing their average either. They've done this in 5 of their 7 games.  Ironically, one game where they didn't, was the game they lost!   Is it that they're burying other teams, so those teams are throwing a lot to catch up?  I took a quick look at the halftime score in their games and the answer is "Not really".  They were behind in 1 game at the half (Vikes up by 13), tied at the half (Pats).  They've only had one game (the game they lost, ironically - the Cardinals game) where they were leading by 10 points at the half.  The other 4 games went into halftime as nominally a 1 score game.

 

The difference, of course, is turnovers.  They're overall +7 in takeaways vs giveaways.  I remember one year when the Bills shot out to an early winning record buoyed by a positive takeaway ratio, people here were pretty clamorous that it wasn't sustainable.

It would be interesting to see if the Bills could build a good lead by halftime, what would they do?

Good stuff - I remember well that year where every tipped pass seemed to land in the hands of someone in our secondary, but as you said, the bounces did not keep bouncing our way. This could be a very interesting game and could very much come down to the team with the fewest turnovers/mistakes.
 

 

 

Just divided  - points for or against/# games, yds given up or gained/# games, etc.  Dumped the data into a spreadsheet, I'm lazy.

 

[Stank_Nasty]

9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Question: who do you consider the Bills have played, that would constitute a good team with a bad D?

 

 

 

Titans d is rough. 25th in yards allowed per game and 18th in points allowed.
 

Raiders, at 4-3, are a solid team IMO. 21st in yards allowed per game and 25th in points allowed per game. 
 

so going back to that guys point about not taking advantage. The fact we couldn’t run against the titans 31st ranked run d(at the time) is pathetic. But we did take advantage of a bad raiders d. 

Edited November 5, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[Greg S]

I know everyone is down on the defense (myself included) but if they can give a similar performance (points wise) like they did vs KC then the Bills will have a good chance. They can't give up 245 or whatever it was yards rushing and they need to do a better job on 3rd down as well. They did hold the Chiefs to 27 points and realistically that is the best you can hope for against teams like KC and SEA.

[Stank_Nasty]

32 minutes ago, Greg S said:

I know everyone is down on the defense (myself included) but if they can give a similar performance (points wise) like they did vs KC then the Bills will have a good chance. They can't give up 245 or whatever it was yards rushing and they need to do a better job on 3rd down as well. They did hold the Chiefs to 27 points and realistically that is the best you can hope for against teams like KC and SEA.

it was actually 26 points and it was the 2nd lowest total of the chiefs 8 games. Also one of the 3 games this year they've been held under 30. The defense, for the most part, did their job that game. They obviously couldnt get off the field like they needed to at the end of the game and so thats what everyone remembers. But i was much more disappointed with the offense coming out of that game.  

[Greg S]

4 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

it was actually 26 points and it was the 2nd lowest total of the chiefs 8 games. Also one of the 3 games this year they've been held under 30. The defense, for the most part, did their job that game. They obviously couldnt get off the field like they needed to at the end of the game and so thats what everyone remembers. But i was much more disappointed with the offense coming out of that game.  

 

Same disappointment with the offense. For the longest time that game was 13-10 and the Bills couldn't grab the lead. Seattle will get their yards and they will score but if the defense can somehow keep them under 30 then the offense needs to win this game.

[Stank_Nasty]

2 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

Same disappointment with the offense. For the longest time that game was 13-10 and the Bills couldn't grab the lead. Seattle will get their yards and they will score but if the defense can somehow keep them under 30 then the offense needs to win this game.

Right. D came out of the half and forced a punt and the offense promptly went 3 and out..... and then 3 and out on the very next possession. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Titans d is rough. 25th in yards allowed per game and 18th in points allowed.
 

Raiders, at 4-3, are a solid team IMO. 21st in yards allowed per game and 25th in points allowed per game. 
 

so going back to that guys point about not taking advantage. The fact we couldn’t run against the titans 31st ranked run d(at the time) is pathetic. But we did take advantage of a bad raiders d. 

 

The Titans game was a little bit fluky.  The 3 TO were the difference, along with key defensive players being out.

 

Yeah, it was very disappointing we couldn't move the ball on them.  They pwn'd us up front.

 

 

[wjag]

10 hours ago, judman said:

My son has been a Seahawks fan for years. Who can blame him?  He’s 18 and they have been really good for all the time he remembers. I’d love it if he was a Bills fan, but he’s watched me swear and wretch for years. 
 

Anyway,  we had planned on this Seahawks game for years. He’s a senior in high school this year.  I was gonna make this a great weekend for us (hotel, wings, etc.) And to see that we would have been treated to 70 degrees and sunshine in early November is particularly tough to see. 
 

Sucks to have that taken from us. 
 

Go Bills!

 

My son was is a Steelers/Penguins fan.  Who can blame him.  His teams have already won a SC and SB.  However, I have brought him back into the Bills fold now.  I have taken him to many games and he actually asked for a Allen jersey to take to college.  I believe I am slowly but surely converting him.

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

15 hours ago, Just Joshin' said:

Does unique mean ugly?

Nope it means exactly what it normally means.

 

Keep in mind I have exactly 0 nostalgia for our old unis nor do I care at all for any kind of tradition with those old unis (despite being in my 40s, always disliked them). I think our 90s uniforms were pretty ugly, and our 2000s were even worse.

 

I love solid color setups, I love red, and I love our white helmets. My absolute favorite is the all white throwbacks.

Edited November 5, 2020 by Tuel Time

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Greg S]

5 minutes ago, Tuel Time said:

Nope it means exactly what it normally means.

 

Keep in mind I have exactly 0 nostalgia for our old unis nor do I care at all for any kind of tradition with those old unis (despite being in my 40s, always disliked them). I think our 90s uniforms were pretty ugly, and our 2000s were even worse.

 

I love solid color setups, I love red, and I love our white helmets. My absolute favorite is the all white throwbacks.

 

I wonder if its a league rule that the Bills can't wear this combo but I always thought red over white would look just as good as blue over white. I also love the all whites both current and throwback. I know red over white might make the Bills look like the old Pats uniform wise but I still think that would be a great look. I hate the all blues and all reds look

[WotAGuy]

15 hours ago, njbuff said:

Seattle has given up over 500 yards 3 times this year.

 

Ouch.

 

But the Bills under McDermott haven't really taken advantage of playing against a bad D, meaning a really good team with a bad D.

 

Against Seattle would be a nice start.

If Josh doesn’t throw for 400 and put up 40 points - I tell ya, I’m done with this team. 

Edited November 5, 2020 by WotAGuy

[YoloinOhio]

I don’t care how much he throws for, just get a dub.I am realistically hoping to split the next 2 NFC games. 

 

no one (at least that I’ve seen)  is picking Buffalo to have a chance in this game. They remain at +3, so Vegas expects it to be close. Beware the home dog! 

Edited November 5, 2020 by YoloinOhio

[Greg S]

5 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I don’t care how much he throws for, just get a dub.I am realistically hoping to split the next 2 NFC games. 

 

no one (at least that I’ve seen)  is picking Buffalo to have a chance in this game. They remain at +3, so Vegas expects it to be close. Beware the home dog! 

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/sports/football/nfl-picks-week-9.html

[YoloinOhio]

1 minute ago, Greg S said:

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/sports/football/nfl-picks-week-9.html

Don’t show McDermott! I have a feeling he’s going to pound a chip into their shoulder this week 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

2 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/sports/football/nfl-picks-week-9.html

Paywall they  pick Bills?

[YoloinOhio]

1 minute ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Paywall they  pick Bills?

They picked them at +3

Edited November 5, 2020 by YoloinOhio

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Greg S]

30 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Paywall they  pick Bills?

 

Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m., Fox

Line: Seahawks -3 | Total: 55

Russell Wilson reminded everyone why he is the front-runner for the league’s Most Valuable Player Award in last week’s win over San Francisco, but the defensive shortcomings of the Seahawks (6-1) were apparent even in that 10-point victory.

 

 

It is with that imbalance between its offense and defense that Seattle travels to Orchard Park, N.Y., to face the Bills (6-2). Such a game this deep into the season would normally create a hostile environment for a visiting team. But with no fans in attendance, and an expected game time temperature of 71 degrees, it is about as neutral a setting as the Seahawks could hope for.

 

That being said, Buffalo is not nearly as bad offensively as it looked in the last few weeks, and Seattle is very likely to have its hands full. Pick: Bills +3

[njbuff]

12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Question: who do you consider the Bills have played, that would constitute a good team with a bad D?

 

 

Could we do the Rams vibe thing without the 3-score comeback this time?  My heart says "please" and "TIA"

Philadelphia and Cleveland come to mind last year and Tennessee hasn’t stopped anybody but the Bills O this year.

Edited November 5, 2020 by njbuff

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

 

I wonder if its a league rule that the Bills can't wear this combo but I always thought red over white would look just as good as blue over white. I also love the all whites both current and throwback. I know red over white might make the Bills look like the old Pats uniform wise but I still think that would be a great look. I hate the all blues and all reds look

 

Yeah red over white would be pretty cool. The only combo I dislike is the White over blue pants. Something about that combo bugs me.