Josh's passing stats for 2019 aren't as bad as many people think.

[thebandit27]

7 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Yeah because being the lowest rated starting QB for the season in yards per game and completion % 2 years in a row needs context.

 

Did you know if Jamarcus Russell just added 1 touchdown a game he would still be starting in the NFL?

Talk about a horrendously ridiculous non-sequitur—well done even for this board!

 

The kid scored more TDs than all but 5 other NFL players. He went 10-4 in games he started and finished. He’s 18th in TDs per pass and 21st in on-target throw percentage, and yet there are people that proclaim him as somehow brutally inaccurate (not true).

 

His WRs were literally the worst group of pass catchers (in terms of drop percentage) in the league, and the worst of any group over the past 10 years. Somehow pointing out that an average performance would’ve crested his completion percentage above 60 makes him Jamarcus Russell? ? 
 

News flash: it’s okay to look at his performance honestly. You don’t have to stake a position and then back your way into defending it.

 

And yes, statistics need context if you want to understand what they’re telling you. If box scores are all that matters then 10-6 with 29 TDs should make you extremely happy...

 

For an example of context...

 

Who threw for more TDs per pass attempt: Allen or Tom Brady?

Who threw more INTs: Allen or Tom Brady?
 

Who threw for a higher on-target percentage: Allen or Tom Brady?

 

Who had a higher yards per pass attempt: Allen or Tom Brady?

Edited May 20, 2020 by thebandit27

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

Talk about a horrendously ridiculous non-sequitur—well done even for this board!

 

The kid scored more TDs than all but 5 other NFL players. He went 10-4 in games he started and finished. He’s 18th in TDs per pass and 21st in on-target throw percentage, and yet there are people that proclaim him as somehow brutally inaccurate (not true).

 

His WRs were literally the worst group of pass catchers (in terms of drop percentage) in the league, and the worst of any group over the past 10 years. Somehow pointing out that an average performance would’ve crested his completion percentage above 60 makes him Jamarcus Russell? ? 
 

News flash: it’s okay to look at his performance honestly. You don’t have to stake a position and then back your way into defending it.

 

And yes, statistics need context if you want to understand what they’re telling you. If box scores are all that matters then 10-6 with 29 TDs should make you extremely happy...

 

For an example of context...

 

Who threw for more TDs per pass attempt: Allen or Tom Brady?

Who threw more INTs: Allen or Tom Brady?
 

Who threw for a higher on-target percentage: Allen or Tom Brady?

 

Who had a higher yards per pass attempt: Allen or Tom Brady?

 

 

You say, "he went 10-4 in games he started and finished," and that simply isn't true. The Buffalo Bills are the ones who did that. I believe that if you go back and take a look, you'll see there were 10 other players on the field with Josh pretty much every single play. Wins and losses simply isn't a QB stat. It's a team stat. 

 

And as for those two wins where he didn't finish the game, in one he was 13 for 28 for 153 yards and 0TDs and 3 INTs. He was not without responsibility for that Pats game loss, concussion or not. His passer rating that game was 24.0, and no, that's not a misprint. No, it wasn't all on him, far from it. That Pats defense was nothing less than terrific. But he deserved his share of the blame.

 

Very true that stats need context. But this last year the reason Josh's stats weren't very good is mostly that Josh wasn't playing as well at QB as he'd have wished.

 

People wanting to give Allen excuses keep desperately bringing up the drop rate, without pointing out the context there. The context there being that some of the reason he had a lot of drops was that he sometimes throws without touch, putting too much smoke on passes that should have been thrown with touch. The young Elway had the same problem, and also had receivers who dropped a lot and got suddenly better when Elway's touch improved as he got older and smarter.

 

And yeah, even if you kid yourself that Josh had no responsibility for any of the drops and put it all on the receivers ... so you go correct downwards to average drops that would raise his accuracy to above 60%. But again, if you did that, you'd still find that Allen had the 29th best completion percentage in the league among QBs with more than 100 throws. It's not like his completion percentage has suddenly become good if you make that adjustment. Just a bit less bad.

 

But what you're calling context somehow all casts positive light on Allen. What a coincidence, that of all your context, none of it has any negative value. What you're doing is spinning things. Which is fine, but it's clear that what you're calling context is actually one-sided, an attempt to frame things as well as possible for Allen.

 

How come you ask about TD %, but then when you turn to INTs you ask not about INT % but instead who had the most? That's a blatant attempt to twist the facts. Josh had a somewhat higher TD% but threw fewer TDs, 20 to 24. Still good for Josh, with a higher percentage. As for INTs, Allen threw one more INT than Brady, but Brady's INT % was a ton better, Josh's 2.0 was pretty good but Brady's 1.3 was terrific.

 

I'm not clear who had a higher on-target percentage. Where is that stat found? But I do know that as for YPA, Allen''s was fractionally above Brady's, 6.7 to 6.6. But Brady's Adjusted YPA was 0.2 higher than his YPA, at 6.8, while Allen's was the same, both 6.7.

 

Another bit of context is that the Bills had better receivers than the Pats last year, and that the Brady had only two fewer drops registered by his pass catchers than the Bills.

 

Context when well-applied, should work both ways. It should be noted that Allen's vastly more dangerous with his feet as a weapon, but that Brady's still sensational at moving within the pocket. That Brady was probably hurt by his receivers more than Allen. That Allen may get better but that he is immensely accurate sometimes but can't find consistency in that. That Brady had 27 sacks and lost 185 yards while Allen had 38 sacks losting 237 yards despite throwing more than 25% fewer passes. That Allen had huge problems with deep balls despite being decent at them in his rookie year, which leads me personally to think he's going to get better there. That Allen had games where he looked like a franchise QB but also had games where he looked genuinely bad. That Allen played better in the 4th quarter, which is good but leads you to wonder why he wasn't better earlier. That Allen without question improved a lot year to year.

Edited May 20, 2020 by Thurman#1

[thebandit27]

17 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You say, "he went 10-4 in games he started and finished," and that simply isn't true. The Buffalo Bills are the ones who did that. I believe that if you go back and take a look, you'll see there were 10 other players on the field with Josh pretty much every single play. Wins and losses simply isn't a QB stat. It's a team stat. 

 

And as for those two wins where he didn't finish the game, in one he was 13 for 28 for 153 yards and 0TDs and 3 INTs. He was not without responsibility for that Pats game loss, concussion or not. His passer rating that game was 24.0, and no, that's not a misprint. No, it wasn't all on him, far from it. That Pats defense was nothing less than terrific. But he deserved his share of the blame.

 

Very true that stats need context. But this last year the reason Josh's stats weren't very good is mostly that Josh wasn't playing as well at QB as he'd have wished.

 

People wanting to give Allen excuses keep desperately bringing up the drop rate, without pointing out the context there. The context there being that some of the reason he had a lot of drops was that he sometimes throws without touch, putting too much smoke on passes that should have been thrown with touch. The young Elway had the same problem, and also had receivers who dropped a lot and got suddenly better when Elway's touch improved as he got older and smarter.

 

And yeah, even if you kid yourself that Josh had no responsibility for any of the drops and put it all on the receivers ... so you go correct downwards to average drops that would raise his accuracy to above 60%. But again, if you did that, you'd still find that Allen had the 29th best completion percentage in the league among QBs with more than 100 throws. It's not like his completion percentage has suddenly become good if you make that adjustment. Just a bit less bad.

 

But what you're calling context somehow all casts positive light on Allen. What a coincidence, that of all your context, none of it has any negative value. What you're doing is spinning things. Which is fine, but it's clear that what you're calling context is actually one-sided, an attempt to frame things as well as possible for Allen.

 

How come you ask about TD %, but then when you turn to INTs you ask not about INT % but instead who had the most? That's a blatant attempt to twist the facts. Josh had a somewhat higher TD% but threw fewer TDs, 20 to 24. Still good for Josh, with a higher percentage. As for INTs, Allen threw one more INT than Brady, but Brady's INT % was a ton better, Josh's 2.0 was pretty good but Brady's 1.3 was terrific.

 

I'm not clear who had a higher on-target percentage. Where is that stat found? But I do know that as for YPA, Allen''s was fractionally above Brady's, 6.7 to 6.6. But Brady's Adjusted YPA was 0.2 higher than his YPA, at 6.8, while Allen's was the same, both 6.7.

 

Another bit of context is that the Bills had better receivers than the Pats last year, and that the Brady had only two fewer drops registered by his pass catchers than the Bills.

 

Context when well-applied, should work both ways. It should be noted that Allen's vastly more dangerous with his feet as a weapon, but that Brady's still sensational at moving within the pocket. That Brady was probably hurt by his receivers more than Allen. That Allen may get better but that he is immensely accurate sometimes but can't find consistency in that. That Brady had 27 sacks and lost 185 yards while Allen had 38 sacks losting 237 yards despite throwing more than 25% fewer passes. That Allen had huge problems with deep balls despite being decent at them in his rookie year, which leads me personally to think he's going to get better there. That Allen had games where he looked like a franchise QB but also had games where he looked genuinely bad. That Allen played better in the 4th quarter, which is good but leads you to wonder why he wasn't better earlier. That Allen without question improved a lot year to year.

Wow did you miss the point wildly.

 

The point is exactly that: you can cite whatever statistics you like, but without context they can be manipulated to say whatever you like.

 

As for the first NE game, please. They had just scored their first TD on the previous drive and were marching into NE territory when Josh got a cheap-shot. The ensuing play was a DPI that lead to a 4-and-out from Inside the 5. The idea that one of the best red zone QBs (and one of the best 4th Q QBs) in the game wouldn’t have scored the go-ahead TD there is questionable at best.

[Bangarang]

27 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Wow did you miss the point wildly.

 

The point is exactly that: you can cite whatever statistics you like, but without context they can be manipulated to say whatever you like.

 

As for the first NE game, please. They had just scored their first TD on the previous drive and were marching into NE territory when Josh got a cheap-shot. The ensuing play was a DPI that lead to a 4-and-out from Inside the 5. The idea that one of the best red zone QBs (and one of the best 4th Q QBs) in the game wouldn’t have scored the go-ahead TD there is questionable at best.

Allen got injured on 3rd and 8 with the ball on the NE 45. The 4th quarter had just started (14:54 left) so there was still plenty of time for NE even if we go ahead.

 

Why would you assume that had Josh not been injured the following play would have resulted in the same outcome? Maybe Josh throws another pick on the next play. 

Edited May 20, 2020 by Bangarang

[C.Biscuit97]

18 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Again, had his WRs merely been average in terms of drop percentage, the 8 fewer drops would’ve put him at 60.5% for the season.

 

So I would say that it’s not a huge difference.

Bandit, this isn’t really directed at you because you are one of the most rational posters here.  But with all due respect, I think this is a cop out.

 

1). What was EJ’s drop rate?  Or JP’s? Or trent’s?  Here’s a stat I found.  At the being of the 2018 season, Derek Carr had the most drops.  Followed by Eli and Blake Bortles.  https://mobile.twitter.com/PFF_Raiders/status/1004801086409068546  
 

2) the top 10 of team dropped passes is a pretty terrible list of qbs.  http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232
 

miami, Pittsburgh’s garbage after Big Ben, Brady (who everyone here said was washed up but imagine his numbers with those drops!), Chicago (Mitch), Dak (who had amazing numbers. Imagine if he had average receivers how great those would be), Carolina, washed up Rivers, Colts, and Browns.  Also,
 

3) not every drop is the same.  I would bet less accurate have more drops than accurate qbs (per attempts because Brees throws a lot more than other QBs).  There needs to be a way to chart how catchable each qb is.

 

again, the great thing is Allen has all the pieces around him and can change the narrative.  But it’s not like this is some blimp on his radar.  He’s never hit this benchmark.  As Parcells says, you are what your record says you are.   To this point, Allen has been a very accurate qb no matter how some try to change this narrative. 

[Dr. Who]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

To this point, Allen has been a very accurate qb no matter how some try to change this narrative. 

Agreed. Happy Birthday, Josh.

[thebandit27]

50 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Allen got injured on 3rd and 8 with the ball on the NE 45. The 4th quarter had just started (14:54 left) so there was still plenty of time for NE even if we go ahead.

 

Why would you assume that had Josh not been injured the following play would have resulted in the same outcome? Maybe Josh throws another pick on the next play. 

Should I assume that he would’ve performed worse than Barkley? And again: not the point.

 

33 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Bandit, this isn’t really directed at you because you are one of the most rational posters here.  But with all due respect, I think this is a cop out.

 

1). What was EJ’s drop rate?  Or JP’s? Or trent’s?  Here’s a stat I found.  At the being of the 2018 season, Derek Carr had the most drops.  Followed by Eli and Blake Bortles.  https://mobile.twitter.com/PFF_Raiders/status/1004801086409068546  
 

2) the top 10 of team dropped passes is a pretty terrible list of qbs.  http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232
 

miami, Pittsburgh’s garbage after Big Ben, Brady (who everyone here said was washed up but imagine his numbers with those drops!), Chicago (Mitch), Dak (who had amazing numbers. Imagine if he had average receivers how great those would be), Carolina, washed up Rivers, Colts, and Browns.  Also,
 

3) not every drop is the same.  I would bet less accurate have more drops than accurate qbs (per attempts because Brees throws a lot more than other QBs).  There needs to be a way to chart how catchable each qb is.

 

again, the great thing is Allen has all the pieces around him and can change the narrative.  But it’s not like this is some blimp on his radar.  He’s never hit this benchmark.  As Parcells says, you are what your record says you are.   To this point, Allen has been a very accurate qb no matter how some try to change this narrative. 

We can debate the merits of the stat, or we can assume that they track it consistently for all QBs/WRs. The thing that I come back to regarding Allen’s inaccuracy is the on-target percentage—it seems to mesh with the eye test. He’s 21st, which I think we all agree isn’t good enough, but I think we similarly agree that it’s not close to the “can’t-hit-the-broadside-of-a-barn” characterization that some folks attribute to him.

 

As I always say about Allen: I’m not going to polish apples; he’s got work to do. The game has to slow down for him, and he’s got to do a better job of knowing when not to go hero-balling. I also believe that he’s closer to being The Guy than many people recognize.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

We can debate the merits of the stat, or we can assume that they track it consistently for all QBs/WRs. The thing that I come back to regarding Allen’s inaccuracy is the on-target percentage—it seems to mesh with the eye test. He’s 21st, which I think we all agree isn’t good enough, but I think we similarly agree that it’s not close to the “can’t-hit-the-broadside-of-a-barn” characterization that some folks attribute to him.

 

As I always say about Allen: I’m not going to polish apples; he’s got work to do. The game has to slow down for him, and he’s got to do a better job of knowing when not to go hero-balling. I also believe that he’s closer to being The Guy than many people recognize.

 

Agree with all of that and I am glad you phrased the last sentence the way you did. Because ultimately that still comes down to a belief. I think he could be the guy. Not sure I yet am at "he is close to being the guy". That still requires some belief and some faith.

 

The good news is he is further along the road than I expect him to be when drafted. His first year was about what I expected as a passer but with better running than I anticipated. His second season was moderately ahead of the arc I foresaw in terms of passing. 

[Billl]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

Wow did you miss the point wildly.

 

The point is exactly that: you can cite whatever statistics you like, but without context they can be manipulated to say whatever you like.

 

As for the first NE game, please. They had just scored their first TD on the previous drive and were marching into NE territory when Josh got a cheap-shot. The ensuing play was a DPI that lead to a 4-and-out from Inside the 5. The idea that one of the best red zone QBs (and one of the best 4th Q QBs) in the game wouldn’t have scored the go-ahead TD there is questionable at best.

Without that cheap shot, it was 3rd and 17 from just inside midfield.

[Bangarang]

28 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Should I assume that he would’ve performed worse than Barkley? And again: not the point.

Why would you assume anything good or bad? It’s ridiculous. Maybe Josh scores if he’s not injured. Maybe he throws another pick or fumbles. We don’t know. To pretend like you can accurately assume what would’ve happened is stupid. 

 

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Without that cheap shot, it was 3rd and 17 from just inside midfield.

Selective memory? There were offsetting fouls on the play 

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

Why would you assume anything good or bad? It’s ridiculous. Maybe Josh scores if he’s not injured. Maybe he throws another pick or fumbles. We don’t know. To pretend like you can accurately assume what would’ve happened is stupid. 

 

Congratulations! You’ve just realized why the statement “10-4 in games he started and finished” was qualified the way it was!

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

Selective memory? There were offsetting fouls on the play 

Congratulations! You’ve just realized why the statement “10-4 in games he started and finished” was qualified the way it was!

I’m sorry, but you can’t take a game away from Josh in which he played awful for 3 Q’s, threw horrific INT’s and led us to only 1 TD.

 

I realize he didn’t finish the game. Partly because he didn’t slide. But qualifying Josh’s season as 10-4 is silly. If you wanna say 10-5 in real action, I would agree. But Josh was a huge reason we lost in the Pats game.

[thebandit27]

46 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I’m sorry, but you can’t take a game away from Josh in which he played awful for 3 Q’s, threw horrific INT’s and led us to only 1 TD.

 

I realize he didn’t finish the game. Partly because he didn’t slide. But qualifying Josh’s season as 10-4 is silly. If you wanna say 10-5 in real action, I would agree. But Josh was a huge reason we lost in the Pats game.

He was a huge reason that we were behind, absolutely. He was also a huge part of why it was a 6-point game and we were heading deep into Pats****** territory when he got scummed.

 

I think it’s plenty fair to say that a guy that thrived in the 4th quarter and RZ all season could’ve pulled that game out (as he did in Pittsburgh). Not would have for sure, but saying that he could have shouldn’t result in “rawwwr excuses!!1!1!1!1” type of backlash IMO.

[TwistofFate]

On 5/15/2020 at 8:56 AM, TroutDog said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02/gamelog/2019/
 

I believe the best way to look at Josh is this: look at the defenses he was playing against where he was sub 60%. They’re all the best ones in the league (NE x 2, PITT, Ravens). As he continues to learn to read defenses, those inefficient games should transition to where he was in the rest of the games: 63% or so. 
 

The kid is gonna be great!

Completing mid 40% completion against top 10 defenses in year two is no evidence of being great. 

 

He averaged 48% completion in his final 3 game stretch.  He averaged 34 passes.  Not sure how one can equate that with being great. 

 

The only success he had was against teams with losing records. In fact, he completed above 60% against 1 team with a winning record....the Titans. 

 

The defense nulified those teams with losing records to the point Allen and the offense really didn't need to do much to win. 

 

Games we needed the offense to actually score points to win, they were non existent.  Those games were against teams with winning records that were well rounded. 

 

Allen is going to actually have to win games with his arm this year.  No way the defense does what they did last year with 2020 schedule.   We will have to score to win. 

[gobills404]

Find you a woman who cares about you as much as @TwistofFate cares about completion percentage

[FireChans]

30 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

He was a huge reason that we were behind, absolutely. He was also a huge part of why it was a 6-point game and we were heading deep into Pats****** territory when he got scummed.

 

I think it’s plenty fair to say that a guy that thrived in the 4th quarter and RZ all season could’ve pulled that game out (as he did in Pittsburgh). Not would have for sure, but saying that he could have shouldn’t result in “rawwwr excuses!!1!1!1!1” type of backlash IMO.

It was a 6 point game because our defense was embarrassing Brady and the Pats. We held them to 224 total yards, 11 total first downs and 5-18 on third down. Our offense was 2-13 on third down.  Our offense was dreadful. You should watch that game again if you think Allen was a huge reason we were in it.

[Mango]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

He was a huge reason that we were behind, absolutely. He was also a huge part of why it was a 6-point game and we were heading deep into Pats****** territory when he got scummed.

 

I think it’s plenty fair to say that a guy that thrived in the 4th quarter and RZ all season could’ve pulled that game out (as he did in Pittsburgh). Not would have for sure, but saying that he could have shouldn’t result in “rawwwr excuses!!1!1!1!1” type of backlash IMO.

 

Just to provide some color, the Bills were 26th in Red Zone Trips and 17th in red zone TD% in 2019. Josh himself was 23rd in Red Zone passing TD's completing only 48% of his passes. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/redzone-passing.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/#all_team_scoring

 

Edit: Josh did rush for 9 RZ TD's which is impressive. 4 were from the 1 yard line and another 1 from the 3 yard line. I am actually hoping those go down a little. We lacked any sort of short yardage bruiser. I would like to see a RB make those plays more often, and run Allen down there enough to keep the defense honest. 

 

Edited May 20, 2020 by Mango
Added Rushing Numbers

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

It was a 6 point game because our defense was embarrassing Brady and the Pats. We held them to 224 total yards, 11 total first downs and 5-18 on third down. Our offense was 2-13 on third down.  Our offense was dreadful. You should watch that game again if you think Allen was a huge reason we were in it.

He put together a TD drive to get them back in striking distance and was putting together another deep drive when he got hurt.

 

My point here is quite simple: there’s no reason to believe that he didn’t have a legitimate chance to win that game had he not been injured.

[Mango]

18 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

He put together a TD drive to get them back in striking distance and was putting together another deep drive when he got hurt.

 

My point here is quite simple: there’s no reason to believe that he didn’t have a legitimate chance to win that game had he not been injured.

Sure there was a better chance than with Barkley. But Allen and Co. had one of the least red zone trips in the NFL. So  you may feel like he was “leading a deep drive” (they gained 25 yards after a 30 yard return). But the reality is, they were in the area of the field they struggled the most to get past. The Bills has one of the fewest red zone trips in the entire league and were just below average in TD% even when they did get there. 

Allens secret sauce in the red zone has been rushing inside the 3 yard line (5 of 9 RTD) He completed 48% of his passes in the RZ. Again, the real uphill battle for the offense is just getting their, not just finishing the drive. 

[Billl]

5 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Selective memory? There were offsetting fouls on the play

I literally said “without the cheap shot”.  That was the foul on NE.  Without the cheap shot, there wouldn’t have been offsetting fouls on the play.  Without the offsetting fouls, it would have been third and 17 or 18 from near midfield.  You don’t need to proof my posts.  They’re correct.

[FireChans]

40 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

He put together a TD drive to get them back in striking distance and was putting together another deep drive when he got hurt.

 

My point here is quite simple: there’s no reason to believe that he didn’t have a legitimate chance to win that game had he not been injured.

In between his TD drive and the drive he got hurt, he went 3 and out and threw an interception. 

 

Did we watch the same game? This wasn’t the team starting to build momentum.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

They had a PFF guest on WGR 550 this afternoon with Schopp and Bulldog.

 

As a rookie 26.7% of Allen’s passes were inaccurate/uncatchable.

 

That number was 26.0% last year. Highest in the league.

 

And of all his plays, 20% were graded negatively, down with Mitchell Trubisky.

 

So whether you completely dismiss the analysis of PFF or just go off the conventional statistics, it’s clear Allen is a bottom 1/3rd NFL QB right now. 
 

Edited May 20, 2020 by Straight Hucklebuck

[GoBills808]

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

Sure there was a better chance than with Barkley. But Allen and Co. had one of the least red zone trips in the NFL. So  you may feel like he was “leading a deep drive” (they gained 25 yards after a 30 yard return). But the reality is, they were in the area of the field they struggled the most to get past. The Bills has one of the fewest red zone trips in the entire league and were just below average in TD% even when they did get there. 

Allens secret sauce in the red zone has been rushing inside the 3 yard line (5 of 9 RTD) He completed 48% of his passes in the RZ. Again, the real uphill battle for the offense is just getting their, not just finishing the drive. 

The simple point that folks are apparently really upset with is that he didn’t get the opportunity to win that game in the 4th quarter, hence my statement about his record.

 

And the whole discussion just goes to prove my point that when someone tries to put a statistic that doesn’t seem positive for Allen into context it’s an excuse, but point out a statistic that reflects positively on him and there’s an uproar over it.

 

1 hour ago, Billl said:

I literally said “without the cheap shot”.  That was the foul on NE.  Without the cheap shot, there wouldn’t have been offsetting fouls on the play.  Without the offsetting fouls, it would have been third and 17 or 18 from near midfield.  You don’t need to proof my posts.  They’re correct.

 

Um, you’ve been wrong plenty of times, and I can just as easily say that without the holding penalty they’re inside the 30.
 

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

In between his TD drive and the drive he got hurt, he went 3 and out and threw an interception. 

 

Did we watch the same game? This wasn’t the team starting to build momentum.

We watched the same game. The point here is really simple: they had a chance to win the game with a single score in the 4th quarter. Allen didn’t get the chance, which is why I made the statement about him being 10-4 in games he started and finished—which is true. I honestly don’t understand why there are a select few folks that are indignant over it.

[TroutDog]

4 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Completing mid 40% completion against top 10 defenses in year two is no evidence of being great. 

 

He averaged 48% completion in his final 3 game stretch.  He averaged 34 passes.  Not sure how one can equate that with being great. 

 

The only success he had was against teams with losing records. In fact, he completed above 60% against 1 team with a winning record....the Titans. 

 

The defense nulified those teams with losing records to the point Allen and the offense really didn't need to do much to win. 

 

Games we needed the offense to actually score points to win, they were non existent.  Those games were against teams with winning records that were well rounded. 

 

Allen is going to actually have to win games with his arm this year.  No way the defense does what they did last year with 2020 schedule.   We will have to score to win. 

I guess you’re discarding everything else I said...which is fine if that’s where you want to start from. 
 

Josh was very good against, what we shall call, ‘standard defenses’. Against the better defensive minds, he was well below average. Should he be able to learn to read the more complex defenses, then he should take a massive leap forward this year. I, for one, believe he can. 
 

The only success he has was against teams with losing records? I believe you should look again. Of course none of this takes into account the simple eye test recognizing where he came from and the massive leaps since he came here. 
 

If you have a burning need to say he sucks, then so be it. Let’s just agree to disagree. 

[Mango]

17 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

The simple point that folks are apparently really upset with is that he didn’t get the opportunity to win that game in the 4th quarter, hence my statement about his record.

 

And the whole discussion just goes to prove my point that when someone tries to put a statistic that doesn’t seem positive for Allen into context it’s an excuse, but point out a statistic that reflects positively on him and there’s an uproar over it.

 

 

Um, you’ve been wrong plenty of times, and I can just as easily say that without the holding penalty they’re inside the 30.
 

We watched the same game. The point here is really simple: they had a chance to win the game with a single score in the 4th quarter. Allen didn’t get the chance, which is why I made the statement about him being 10-4 in games he started and finished—which is true. I honestly don’t understand why there are a select few folks that are indignant over it.

I was just responding to your post that he: 

 

-Was driving deep- They weren’t. They went 20 yards. 

- Thrives in the red zone- he doesn’t as a passer/ He’s actually a poor passer in the red zone. Completing less than 50% of their passes. And over half his rushing TD’s are from the 3 or closer. 
 

I added his rushing TD’s. Which I credited as his secret sauce. But mentioned that over half came at the 3 yard line or closer. I want him to keep running but only enough to keep defenses honest. 

 

I also added that the Bills had one of the worst total number of red zone attempts in the league and a below average TD% even when they do get there. I’ll add now, that the Bills are 24th in yards per drive. All while being 11th in average starting field position. The drive you mentioned was actually actually VERY close to their average in terms of yardage and starting failed position. 
 

I feel like I read your point as “he probably does it” and I responded with, based on everything you laid out, probability is actually not in his favor outside of in game context. Not only that, it was very run of the mill for a Buffalo offense. Started at the 30, went under 30 yards. Punt. In game context he had just thrown a pick and went 3 and out. So not a ton of momentum. 

[FireChans]

34 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

We watched the same game. The point here is really simple: they had a chance to win the game with a single score in the 4th quarter. Allen didn’t get the chance, which is why I made the statement about him being 10-4 in games he started and finished—which is true. I honestly don’t understand why there are a select few folks that are indignant over it.

They had a chance to win the game, and they didn’t. They were down a single score in large part due to Allen’s horrific play for 3Q’s.

 

The reason folks are indignant is because it’s a weird twist of facts to make Allen sound better which is WHOLLY unnecessary. You can argue Allen’s deficiencies and successes without being ridiculous. You are perhaps the only person to waive a loss from a QB’s record after he tossed 3 picks and sucked for 3Q’s because he got hurt. He didn’t even leave the field with a lead!

 

Brady got pulled in the 4th against KC in 2014 and Jimmy G finished out the game for him. It is a FACT that he was 12-3 in games he started and finished in 2014. That’s still a really stupid point to make.

Edited May 21, 2020 by FireChans

[Mango]

16 minutes ago, FireChans said:

They had a chance to win the game, and they didn’t. They were down a single score in large part due to Allen’s horrific play for 3Q’s.

 

The reason folks are indignant is because it’s a weird twist of facts to make Allen sound better which is WHOLLY unnecessary. You can argue Allen’s deficiencies and successes without being ridiculous. You are perhaps the only person to waive a loss from a QB’s record after he tossed 3 picks and sucked for 3Q’s because he got hurt. He didn’t even leave the field with a lead!

 

Brady got pulled in the 4th against KC in 2014 and Jimmy G finished out the game for him. It is a FACT that he was 12-3 in games he started and finished in 2014. That’s still a really stupid point to make.

EJ left the field against the pats with just a few minutes left on the clock with the league. I think part of my frustration with the “Allen is almost there” crowd is a little bit of shaken baby syndrome with my past self with EJ. 
 

Sure he largely didn’t play well enough, but he left the field with the lead. What a terrible 100 seconds against the Jags in London, but we still almost won the game. He was 2-2 when he was benched. Yada yada yada.

 

EJ reference aside. JA has shown more improvement from year 1 to 2 than EJ did. And has much better intangibles. The book isn’t written on him yet, but as a passer he hasn’t been good enough to date. He still may. Stats are on his side at the moment, but I am holding out hope.

 

Go Bills! 

[FireChans]

Just now, Mango said:

EJ left the field against the pats with just a few minutes left on the clock with the league. I think part of my frustration with the “Allen is almost there” crowd is a little bit of shaken baby syndrome with my past self with EJ. 
 

Sure he largely didn’t play well enough, but he left the field with the lead. What a terrible 100 seconds against the Jags in London, but we still almost won the game. He was 2-2 when he was benched. Yada yada yada.

 

EJ reference aside. JA has shown more improvement from year 1 to 2 than EJ did. And has much better intangibles. The book isn’t written on him yet, but as a passer he hasn’t been good enough to date. He still may. Stats are on his side at the moment, but I am holding out hope.

 

Go Bills! 

Exactly! That’s why it’s silly. You needed the contortion act to tell yourself EJ was better than he is. Allen’s career trajectory is already far better than EJ’s. You don’t need to contort yourself with these obscure stats and facts to have reasons to believe in him. Or to have doubt in him. We don’t have to come up with these inane and insane benchmarks that literally no other QB is held to in the league.

 

How many weird contextual stats about Dak or Trubisky or Darnold or Baker are thrown around on here outside of the normal ones? ZERO. No one is sitting here talking about how Baker left the field with a lead or Darnold’s record in games he started and finished. It’s just dopey stuff.

 

 

[gobills404]

5 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Completing mid 40% completion against top 10 defenses in year two is no evidence of being great. 

 

He averaged 48% completion in his final 3 game stretch.  He averaged 34 passes.  Not sure how one can equate that with being great. 

Here are breakdowns of all his throws from 2 of those 3 games (couldn't find anything for the pats game). If you actually took the time to rewatch Allen's games instead of just parroting stats you saw online without context, you would see that his actual play on the field far exceeds what's reflected on the stat sheet.

 

Also literally nobody has ever said that Allen is currently a great quarterback. Even the most die-hard Bill's homers know he's still a work in progress.

 

[papazoid]

NFL quarterback tiers 2020: Franchise guys, rising stars and stopgaps; here's where your team's starter ranks

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-quarterback-tiers-2020-franchise-guys-rising-stars-and-stopgaps-heres-where-your-teams-starter-ranks/

 

(they have 14 guys ahead of josh)

[papazoid]

8 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

They had a PFF guest on WGR 550 this afternoon with Schopp and Bulldog.

 

As a rookie 26.7% of Allen’s passes were inaccurate/uncatchable.

 

That number was 26.0% last year. Highest in the league.

 

And of all his plays, 20% were graded negatively, down with Mitchell Trubisky.

 

So whether you completely dismiss the analysis of PFF or just go off the conventional statistics, it’s clear Allen is a bottom 1/3rd NFL QB right now. 
 

 

 

ouch.....but you can't take his biggest weakness and act like that's the only way to grade QB play.

[JaCrispy]

9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

[thebandit27]

10 hours ago, Mango said:

I was just responding to your post that he: 

 

-Was driving deep- They weren’t. They went 20 yards. 

- Thrives in the red zone- he doesn’t as a passer/ He’s actually a poor passer in the red zone. Completing less than 50% of their passes. And over half his rushing TD’s are from the 3 or closer. 
 

I added his rushing TD’s. Which I credited as his secret sauce. But mentioned that over half came at the 3 yard line or closer. I want him to keep running but only enough to keep defenses honest. 

 

I also added that the Bills had one of the worst total number of red zone attempts in the league and a below average TD% even when they do get there. I’ll add now, that the Bills are 24th in yards per drive. All while being 11th in average starting field position. The drive you mentioned was actually actually VERY close to their average in terms of yardage and starting failed position. 
 

I feel like I read your point as “he probably does it” and I responded with, based on everything you laid out, probability is actually not in his favor outside of in game context. Not only that, it was very run of the mill for a Buffalo offense. Started at the 30, went under 30 yards. Punt. In game context he had just thrown a pick and went 3 and out. So not a ton of momentum. 

I’m stating it more as “he had a legitimate chance”. And he did. It was a one-score game and that same drive ended with a 4-and-out from inside the 5.

 

It’s fine if people don’t agree, but to frame it as some kind of preposterous notion (which you may not be doing) is unreasonable IMO.

10 hours ago, FireChans said:

They had a chance to win the game, and they didn’t. They were down a single score in large part due to Allen’s horrific play for 3Q’s.

 

The reason folks are indignant is because it’s a weird twist of facts to make Allen sound better which is WHOLLY unnecessary. You can argue Allen’s deficiencies and successes without being ridiculous. You are perhaps the only person to waive a loss from a QB’s record after he tossed 3 picks and sucked for 3Q’s because he got hurt. He didn’t even leave the field with a lead!

 

Brady got pulled in the 4th against KC in 2014 and Jimmy G finished out the game for him. It is a FACT that he was 12-3 in games he started and finished in 2014. That’s still a really stupid point to make.

I’m sorry but I don’t think it’s ridiculous to point out that he missed the final quarter of a one-score game that ended in the same score and involved a 4-and-out inside the 5 on the drive he was injured.

 

As I said to Mango above; you may feel that 16-10 Pats****** was etched in stone at that point; I think it’s altogether reasonable to believe 17-16 Bills was a possibility if Allen didn’t get hurt.

 

It’s not intended to prop him up artificially; it’s simply an acknowledgment that a guy that lead a bunch of 4th quarter comebacks didn’t get the chance to do it in that game.

 

I’ll leave it at that.

[BigBillsFan]

23 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Who threw for more TDs per pass attempt: Allen or Tom Brady?

Who threw more INTs: Allen or Tom Brady?
 

Who threw for a higher on-target percentage: Allen or Tom Brady?

 

Who had a higher yards per pass attempt: Allen or Tom Brady?

 

Actually you're proving my point inadvertently. The Patriots were 12-4 and Brady played horribly the 2nd half, and really most of the season.Those wins were not from Brady "winning" but the team winning DESPITE Tommy Boy.

 

If the bar is "How does Josh rank in a few categories against a QB in a his worst year at 42 yrs old for context" then YES YOU WIN THE PRIZE.

 

If the question is "How is Josh in the bottom 1/3rd of the most statistically significant categories 2 years in a row and why does that need context" then YOU LOSE.

[thebandit27]

17 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Actually you're proving my point inadvertently. The Patriots were 12-4 and Brady played horribly the 2nd half, and really most of the season.Those wins were not from Brady "winning" but the team winning DESPITE Tommy Boy.

 

If the bar is "How does Josh rank in a few categories against a QB in a his worst year at 42 yrs old for context" then YES YOU WIN THE PRIZE.

 

If the question is "How is Josh in the bottom 1/3rd of the most statistically significant categories 2 years in a row and why does that need context" then YOU LOSE.

Nope, you missed it.

 

Actually look at the numbers and draw a real conclusion. Brady had a season that was nearly statistically identical to 2013–when he was in his prime. But even that isn’t the point.

 

The point was that when looking at the questions I asked you didn’t worry about the facts; you immediately tried to apply context to the situation. It’s almost as if you believe that the raw data don’t really tell the whole story.

 

And that was the crux of my very first response to you.

Edited May 21, 2020 by thebandit27

[Straight Hucklebuck]

2 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Actually you're proving my point inadvertently. The Patriots were 12-4 and Brady played horribly the 2nd half, and really most of the season.Those wins were not from Brady "winning" but the team winning DESPITE Tommy Boy.

 

If the bar is "How does Josh rank in a few categories against a QB in a his worst year at 42 yrs old for context" then YES YOU WIN THE PRIZE.

 

If the question is "How is Josh in the bottom 1/3rd of the most statistically significant categories 2 years in a row and why does that need context" then YOU LOSE.

 

Whatever mental hoops you want to jump through to elevate Allen, you go right ahead. 

 

[HappyDays]

12 hours ago, gobills404 said:

Here are breakdowns of all his throws from 2 of those 3 games (couldn't find anything for the pats game). If you actually took the time to rewatch Allen's games instead of just parroting stats you saw online without context, you would see that his actual play on the field far exceeds what's reflected on the stat sheet.

 

Also literally nobody has ever said that Allen is currently a great quarterback. Even the most die-hard Bill's homers know he's still a work in progress.

 

 

Thank you for posting the thread with all of the Steelers throws. My memory of the game is correct. Allen played extremely well and was let down by his supporting cast far more than they were let down by him. I counted exactly two bad/inaccurate passes in that thread. I also counted 4 drops. As much as some posters think Bills fans make excuses for Allen, I have never seen so many excuses made for a group of receivers. If the ball doesn't hit them softly in the hands at the exact center of their chest, they're off the hook.

 

It doesn't come up a lot on here but Beasley was a disappointment last year IMO. He came in as the receiver who "catches everything." Instead he is a small receiver who plays small. He has excellent short area quickness, but if the ball is a little outside his catch radius or there is a DB in his vicinity he is not likely to catch the ball.

[TwistofFate]

7 hours ago, papazoid said:

 

 

ouch.....but you can't take his biggest weakness and act like that's the only way to grade QB play.

Actually, you can. 

 

According to advanced metrics the two most prominent metrics in determining a franchise Qb are clean pocket statistics and catchable pass percentage. 

 

Over the last 10 years, zero Qbs with the metrics Allen has over 2 seasons in those categories, has gone on to be a franchise Qb. 

 

If you think about the logic they use, its pretty simple.   The majority of your throws in the NFL are going to come from a clean pocket. (metrics put it in the low 60%) If you can't be accurate during that percentage, the odds are completely stacked against you.  "Accurate" refers to the second most valuable metric, catchable passes. 

 

Everything Ive read about advanced metrics concerning Qbs boils down to those two key categories. 

 

How accurate are your passes (giving receivers YAC with ball placement) and how consistently are you doing it?  (clean pocket passing) 

 

All the other stuff will round out your game, but those categories are the most important in determining a franchise Qb. 

[thebandit27]

2 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Actually, you can. 

 

According to advanced metrics the two most prominent metrics in determining a franchise Qb are clean pocket statistics and catchable pass percentage. 

 

Over the last 10 years, zero Qbs with the metrics Allen has over 2 seasons in those categories, has gone on to be a franchise Qb. 

 

If you think about the logic they use, its pretty simple.   The majority of your throws in the NFL are going to come from a clean pocket. (metrics put it in the low 60%) If you can't be accurate during that percentage, the odds are completely stacked against you.  "Accurate" refers to the second most valuable metric, catchable passes. 

 

Everything Ive read about advanced metrics concerning Qbs boils down to those two key categories. 

 

How accurate are your passes (giving receivers YAC with ball placement) and how consistently are you doing it?  (clean pocket passing) 

 

All the other stuff will round out your game, but those categories are the most important in determining a franchise Qb. 

Care to reference where you picked up that those two statistics were the most critical? Because I’ve seen studies that ANY/A and TD% were the two statistics most closely correlated with winning.

 

https://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/20114211/the-nfl-stats-matter-most-2017-offseason-bill-barnwell