Draft hypothetical - all needs adequately filled

[BarleyNY]

Let’s say for argument’s sake that the Bills find a stud #1 WR, fill out their Edge needs and generally clean up their weak spots prior to the draft.  What would you reasonably look to do?  Are there any players you’d make a big move up for?  Or do you look to move out of 22 and stockpile future picks?  Or just sit tight and go BPA?  That last one is a bit boring for a hypothetical like this, but it would be valid, I guess.

 

Edit:  I meant a very good quality WR acquisition like AJ Green or Emmanuel Sanders.

Edited February 25, 2020 by BarleyNY

[TroutDog]

In that event I would hope they would stand pat or move back and get a high ranking OL. 

[TheBeaneBandit]

10 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

In that event I would hope they would stand pat or move back and get a high ranking OL. 

I concur.

[BarleyNY]

There are a couple players I might be interested in making a move up for. Isaiah Simmons looks to be a difference maker with a unique skill set.  If he got close to 10 I’d try to get him.  Also I might be tempted to go up for Lamb if he fell to around 10 or beyond.  Chase Young has no chance to fall into a range where we could get him and he’s the only Edge player in this draft that I’d move up for.  So he’s out.  A move up for the right difference making player would definitely be on the table for me. 
 

If that fails then I gotta be honest, I’d move back if I could.  I just doubt that there’s going to be a player at 22 that I love much more than I do a player in the second.  (That’s simply because I wouldn’t have to target a specific position.)  I’m looking for at least a 2021 first and a 2020 second to move way back. Or a high second and a third both this year plus some additional value.

12 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

In that event I would hope they would stand pat or move back and get a high ranking OL. 

Yeah.  An OL would likely be BPA and my choice if we would stay at 22 or close to it. 

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

There are a couple players I might be interested in making a move up for. Isaiah Simmons looks to be a difference maker with a unique skill set.  If he got close to 10 I’d try to get him.  Also I might be tempted to go up for Lamb if he fell to around 10 or beyond.  Chase Young has no chance to fall into a range where we could get him and he’s the only Edge player in this draft that I’d move up for.  So he’s out.  A move up for the right difference making player would definitely be on the table for me. 
 

If that fails then I gotta be honest, I’d move back if I could.  I just doubt that there’s going to be a player at 22 that I love much more than I do a player in the second.  (That’s simply because I wouldn’t have to target a specific position.)  I’m looking for at least a 2021 first and a 2020 second to move way back. Or a high second and a third both this year plus some additional value.

So if we got a #1 wr prior to the draft, you’d try and trade up for CeeDee Lamb?  

[GunnerBill]

If I find a #1 receiver in FA or all 3 top guys are off the board in the first 15 picks I am sitting tight and going BPA or trying to slide back and pick up an extra 2nd. That might require going back to where Baltimore or Ten are.... Baltimore are a potential trade up team as well if Queen or Murray are there at #22. 

[YoloinOhio]

17 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Let’s say for argument’s sake that the Bills find a stud #1 WR, fill out their Edge needs and generally clean up their weak spots prior to the draft.  What would you reasonably look to do?  Are there any players you’d make a big move up for?  Or do you look to move out of 22 and stockpile future picks?  Or just sit tight and go BPA?  That last one is a bit boring for a hypothetical like this, but it would be valid, I guess.

Stay at 22 and draft BPA

[BarleyNY]

7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

So if we got a #1 wr prior to the draft, you’d try and trade up for CeeDee Lamb?  

Yes.  Simply because I think he’s going to be a special playmaker and WR is such an important position.  Also I think his specific skill set would fit well with Allen.  And I would have no issue being 4 deep at WR especially since we’d be set long term.  3 WRs would be under second deals now and we’d have a #1 WR going on his second as they come off theirs.

 

5 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Stay at 22 and draft BPA

You’re sooo boring!

Edited February 25, 2020 by BarleyNY

[BigdaddyinOrlando]

In that scenario wouldn’t mind moving out of spot for second round or even a fourth and a number one next year

[NewEra]

Just now, BarleyNY said:

Yes.  Simply because I think he’s going to be a special playmaker and WR is such an important position.  I would have no issue being 4 deep at WR especially since we’d be set long term.  3 WRs would be under second deals now and we’d have a #1 WR going on his second as they come off theirs. 

You’re sooo boring!

I agree with him being a special player but if we secured a #1 WR I’d rather address other positions on offense.....most importantly the OL.  Build a dominant OL.  I’d rather use that 1st and the other pick picks we trade for lamb to build the OL and fortify TE and RB.  Maybe even draft another WR in rd 2-3.  I just wouldn’t want to give up extra high picks. 
 

but I see where you’re coming from. Lamb is the apple of your eye, for good reason ??

[RyanC883]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

Let’s say for argument’s sake that the Bills find a stud #1 WR, fill out their Edge needs and generally clean up their weak spots prior to the draft.  What would you reasonably look to do?  Are there any players you’d make a big move up for?  Or do you look to move out of 22 and stockpile future picks?  Or just sit tight and go BPA?  That last one is a bit boring for a hypothetical like this, but it would be valid, I guess.

 

This is a great hypo.  I think in this draft, I'd stay put (or even acquire more 2nd rounders).  There are a decent amount of WR, CB, etc that could help long term.  

 

If LB Simmons fell, I might make a move for him.  But I wouldn't trade up past the 15 range, as that gets expensive quickly.  

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

If I find a #1 receiver in FA or all 3 top guys are off the board in the first 15 picks I am sitting tight and going BPA or trying to slide back and pick up an extra 2nd. That might require going back to where Baltimore or Ten are.... Baltimore are a potential trade up team as well if Queen or Murray are there at #22. 

If this happens, I’m on the phone with Chicago; “whachoo want for Khalil Mack?”

[ProcessYaDigg]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

So if we got a #1 wr prior to the draft, you’d try and trade up for CeeDee Lamb?  

My thoughts exactly.

This is gonna be a long 2 months

[hjnick]

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

Let’s say for argument’s sake that the Bills find a stud #1 WR, fill out their Edge needs and generally clean up their weak spots prior to the draft.  What would you reasonably look to do?  Are there any players you’d make a big move up for?  Or do you look to move out of 22 and stockpile future picks?  Or just sit tight and go BPA?  That last one is a bit boring for a hypothetical like this, but it would be valid, I guess.

Love hypotheticals.

 

Ok, IF, WR#1, OT/G, and EDGE are all fixed prior to the draft and there are no glaring weak spots...

 

The only players I'd try and trade up for are Chase Young, Isaiah Simmons, and Jeff Okudah.  I think all 3 are going to be difference makers.

 

With having a WR#1, I don't have a reason to trade up for a WR.  I can still stay at 22 and get a great WR.

 

I would like to trade back and get some picks for next year.  In return, I want someone's #1 pick for next year.  I'd also like to use some of our lower level draft picks and maybe swap 3rd round picks so we can get farther up in the 3rd.

 

So then in that example, if we traded back into the front of round 2 w/ Cinc. 

 

We would get:

2020 1st pick 2nd round, 2020 1st pick 3rd round, 2021 Cinc 1st round pick

 

Cinc get:

2020 our first round pick (22), 2020 our 3rd round pick (swapped picks basically), 2020 5th round pick.

 

Is that even remotely close value wise???

Edited February 25, 2020 by hjnick

[SoCal Deek]

Since the universe of available Free Agents is rather small can you tell us who these stud signings are before we go wandering off into Fantasy Land on the Draft?

[MJS]

5 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Since the universe of available Free Agents is rather small can you tell us who these stud signings are before we go wandering off into Fantasy Land on the Draft?

Would require trades for an edge rusher, at least. There are a some above average options in free agency (Clowney, Ngakoue), but nothing to say our edge rush is completely fixed. I guess Amari Cooper could fill the #1 role of WR if we get him.

[TigerJ]

To get a really elite player in the first round, they would probably need to move into the top 5.  Who wouldn't want to get Chase Youngs?  Unfortunately, moving from 22 to #2 would probably cost them the rest of their draft.  Anywhere in the top 5 would cost them almost as much.  Other than Chase Youngs, I don't really think there is a lineman on either side of the LOS who would inspire me to give up the rest of my draft just to get my hands on him.  The same is true for the available WRs.  Jeudy and Lamb are good,, but are they good enough, and that much better than the next tier of WRs to sacrifice most of the rest of the players I might get in the draft?  I wouldn't completely rule out trading up, if someone I really like surprises me by dropping, but a trade up is about the least likely alternative I can imagine happening.  I could see trading down a few spots to pick up another 2nd or 3rd round pick, and I could easily see bundling some late picks with a 4th rounder to get another 3rd, but I think standing pat in round one might be the most likely chice thise year, and I'm happy with that.

[SoCal Deek]

7 minutes ago, MJS said:

Would require trades for an edge rusher, at least. There are a some above average options in free agency (Clowney, Ngakoue), but nothing to say our edge rush is completely fixed. I guess Amari Cooper could fill the #1 role of WR if we get him.

Excellent 

I’m not trying to rain on the thread but unless you know the age, contract value, etc of these hypothetical free agent signings it’s impossible to strategize the draft.

[H2o]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If I find a #1 receiver in FA or all 3 top guys are off the board in the first 15 picks I am sitting tight and going BPA or trying to slide back and pick up an extra 2nd. That might require going back to where Baltimore or Ten are.... Baltimore are a potential trade up team as well if Queen or Murray are there at #22. 

This. But in all honesty I don't expect us to go after the BIG names in FA. I think much of our cap will be for taking care of guys in house and signing some so called 2nd Tier FA's. I expect the draft to be where they look to add their impact players by relying on their scouting dept. in hopes of having these guys for 4 or 5 years at a more cost effective clip. Just my thoughts. 

[BarleyNY]

56 minutes ago, Circlethewagon8404 said:

My thoughts exactly.

This is gonna be a long 2 months

Crap. I goofed.  I said “stud WR” to fill our #1 WR spot.  That’s my bad.  I was thinking along the lines of acquiring a player like AJ Green or Emmanuel Sanders, not somehow getting hold of someone like Deandre Hopkins. 

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Since the universe of available Free Agents is rather small can you tell us who these stud signings are before we go wandering off into Fantasy Land on the Draft?

Far too often fans (and even GMs) primarily focus on drafting to fill needs.  This is simply an exercise to see how people would build the Bills if the team’s current needs were adequately filled.  It’s meant to ferret out people’s: 

- general team building philosophy 

- opinions of specific players in this draft

- this draft in general 

 

Would people prefer to stockpile picks or go after a game changer?  Which specific players would be worth a move up?  Do you build your team by improving the OL?  Or Edge?  Or CB?

 

Sure, it takes a bit of imagination and possibly even some thought, but I was interested to see what people thought. 

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, hjnick said:

Love hypotheticals.

 

Ok, IF, WR#1, OT/G, and EDGE are all fixed prior to the draft and there are no glaring weak spots...

 

The only players I'd try and trade up for are Chase Young, Isaiah Simmons, and Jeff Okudah.  I think all 3 are going to be difference makers.

 

With having a WR#1, I don't have a reason to trade up for a WR.  I can still stay at 22 and get a great WR.

 

I would like to trade back and get some picks for next year.  In return, I want someone's #1 pick for next year.  I'd also like to use some of our lower level draft picks and maybe swap 3rd round picks so we can get farther up in the 3rd.

 

So then in that example, if we traded back into the front of round 2 w/ Cinc. 

 

We would get:

2020 1st pick 2nd round, 2020 1st pick 3rd round, 2021 Cinc 1st round pick

 

Cinc get:

2020 our first round pick (22), 2020 our 3rd round pick (swapped picks basically), 2020 5th round pick.

 

Is that even remotely close value wise???

 Cincy’s picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds (33&65) would be more than enough for 22 according to the JJ trade chart:

22=780 pts

33=580

65=265

[John from Riverside]

This is pretty simple to me

 

The first round pick should be a WR..and we should also spend money on a Veteran WR....I would also look into what the Vikings want for WR (so either a veteran like Greene or a trade for another very good veteran WR

 

My 1st round pick would be Sheanalt, Higgins, or Ruggs.......I would then really start going best player available through the draft.......I would NOT trade back and I would NOT trade up and give up multitudes of picks.

 

I am hearing OL a bit in the thread....I really feel like the bills addressed OL in this last year and while I am def not against finding competiton we brought in TWO solid veterans to compete for the RT spot this past year.....we took Ford high.....we spent big money on our center....and we had veteran guys come in and pan out like Jon F. 

 

Offensive weapons and pass rush......that is what I want

[Formerly Allan in MD]

This board is generally addicted to drafting a wide receiver in round one.  With the depth available at that position this year, aside from free agency, why not truly fix the OL with a stud, legitimate tackle.  You don't win anything unless your offensive line is top notch.  Been saying that for years.

[gobills404]

If we enter draft night without any glaring needs we should just go BPA at, preferably at a premium position (OT, DE, WR, or CB). If a fringe top 10 started sliding into the mid teens (like Edmunds in at 2018) I hope we trade up to get them. We need more high impact starters on this team.

[thebandit27]

If one of the following fell out of the top 7, I’d move up:

Chase Young

Jeff Okudah

Derrick Brown

Javon Kinlaw

Isaiah Simmons

[hjnick]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

 Cincy’s picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds (33&65) would be more than enough for 22 according to the JJ trade chart:

22=780 pts

33=580

65=265

What would be the value for next year's 1st round pick be?  Thx.

 

BTW, I was also trading them the Bills 3rd round pick and 5th round pick. 

[gobills404]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

If one of the following fell out of the top 7, I’d move up:

Chase Young

Jeff Okudah

Derrick Brown

Javon Kinlaw

Isaiah Simmons

We'd have to give up a future first rounder to move up to 8. No thanks.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, hjnick said:

What would be the value for next year's 1st round pick be?  Thx.

 

BTW, I was also trading them the Bills 3rd round pick and 5th round pick. 

Future picks are tricky.  It’s not set in stone but they’re usually discounted at approximately one round with the second round divided into to tiers and the first into three tiers.  As an example if expect the Bengals to be drafting in the top 10 next year, then their 2021 first would be estimated at the value of a mid first round pick.  If you expect the Bills to be a playoff team and pick in the last 10 or so picks in 2021, then that would be worth a pick in the top half of the second round this year.  A place that some GMs find value is to gain a future 1st or 2nd round pick from a team that got a little lucky and over-performed in their record.  If that team falls of, then that pick could be way better than expected.

 

We don’t have nearly enough draft capital to get 33, 65 and next year’s first from

Cincy. 

 

54 minutes ago, gobills404 said:

We'd have to give up a future first rounder to move up to 8. No thanks.

To get a real difference maker that’s not that much to give up.  If you expect the Bills to make a nice playoff run - and players like that can help make that happen - then you’re looking at a very late first next year anyway.  Often that’s second round talent.  Give me a player that can change games rather than two good players. 

Edited February 26, 2020 by BarleyNY

[thebandit27]

50 minutes ago, gobills404 said:

We'd have to give up a future first rounder to move up to 8. No thanks.

No need for elite talent?

[Mr. WEO]

5 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

If this happens, I’m on the phone with Chicago; “whachoo want for Khalil Mack?”

 

 

Nah... Mack, as great as he is, is destined to be used by every team that signs him as  bait for draft picks.  

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 Cincy’s picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds (33&65) would be more than enough for 22 according to the JJ trade chart:

22=780 pts

33=580

65=265

 

Except Cincy never trade up. Just not Mike Brown's MO. 

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

If one of the following fell out of the top 7, I’d move up:

Chase Young

Jeff Okudah

Derrick Brown

Javon Kinlaw

Isaiah Simmons

 

I think Simmons is going to slide. He shouldn't. He is great. But I think he will. Possibly out of the top 10 or 12 picks. 

[gobills404]

12 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

To get a real difference maker that’s not that much to give up.  If you expect the Bills to make a nice playoff run - and players like that can help make that happen - then you’re looking at a very late first next year anyway.  Often that’s second round talent.  Give me a player that can change games rather than two good players. 

I'm just not of fan of trading away future first for a non-QB, unless it's a true blue chip talent (like Young or Okudah) at a position where you have a big hole to fill.

9 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

No need for elite talent?

No, just no need to trade all the way up into the top 10 to find it.

[Buffalo86]

Call me old-fashioned, but I wouldn't hate seeing Jonathan Taylor in a Bills uniform under the conditions the OP described.

[BigBillsFan]

I loved what we did in 2001. We moved back and got Nate Clements later in the 1st and used the extra pick for Travis Henry. We started at 14 that year. In 2020 I would try to push back again and trade back for a later OL and get a 3rd or late 2nd and try to get another RB or best OL or RB.

Edited February 26, 2020 by BigBillsFan

[thebandit27]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Except Cincy never trade up. Just not Mike Brown's MO. 

 

I think Simmons is going to slide. He shouldn't. He is great. But I think he will. Possibly out of the top 10 or 12 picks. 

I feel like someone—NYG, Jax, Cleveland, etc will take him. He’s too good.

 

5 minutes ago, gobills404 said:

I'm just not of fan of trading away future first for a non-QB, unless it's a true blue chip talent (like Young or Okudah) at a position where you have a big hole to fill.

No, just no need to trade all the way up into the top 10 to find it.

That’s typically where the elite talent is found though.