Trade for David Johnson?

[T master]

I seem to remember some talk about trading for Falcons RB Freeman last year & there is now talk of them letting him go to clear some cap space i guess he hasn't performed as well last year because the Falcons in general weren't that good but he came back from being on IR the year before a change of scenery might do him good !

 

I don't know a lot about him but could he be a good fit in B/lo & it doesn't look as if he would cost a lot ? Or would the Bills be better off just sticking with who they have in Wade , Motor, & Yeldon ? 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

18 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

Yeah, this is the kind of deal the OP was talking about.  It isn’t a bad idea at all, but the Cards are fine with cap space (unlike Houston at the time of the BO deal) so they aren't in a bind.  Also we’d have to wait until 2021 for the 3rd.  Cleveland had to wait a season for their 2nd when they got BO and a 6th for a 4th.  Prior to that, the league vetoed a trade where the Browns got a better pick and BO for a lower pick all in the same year. 

 

The reason they would consider it is because they ideally want to keep drake.  You cant tie up that amount of money in 2 running backs and expect to be successful.  The money saved basically goes right into drakes pocket.  

25 minutes ago, T master said:

I seem to remember some talk about trading for Falcons RB Freeman last year & there is now talk of them letting him go to clear some cap space i guess he hasn't performed as well last year because the Falcons in general weren't that good but he came back from being on IR the year before a change of scenery might do him good !

 

I don't know a lot about him but could he be a good fit in B/lo & it doesn't look as if he would cost a lot ? Or would the Bills be better off just sticking with who they have in Wade , Motor, & Yeldon ? 

 

If freeman becomes available he would command a decent contract i would think.  Below Drake/Henry but in the realm of gordon and hyde.  

[BillsMafia13]

11 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

The reason they would consider it is because they ideally want to keep drake.  You cant tie up that amount of money in 2 running backs and expect to be successful.  The money saved basically goes right into drakes pocket.  

 

If freeman becomes available he would command a decent contract i would think.  Below Drake/Henry but in the realm of gordon and hyde.  

Well freeman signed an extension in 2017. Why would he command a big contract?

[Mark80]

Not sure why we would want a guy that had one good season and gets injured all the time.  No thanks.  Rather draft a healthy guy.

[Jerboski]

I take that trade in a heartbeat 

 

Depth for RB, salary isnt long term and an extra third this year... yeah, done 

[Alphadawg7]

Ok, I was originally against this trade, but now that I’ve seen what it would be rumored to look like, I am all for it.  
 

Getting him AND a 3rd round this pick this year for something like a 5th?  Um yeah, all day long.  We easily have the cap room for this, that 3rd round pick could be quite valuable in this draft.  
 

Now I’m hoping this gets done.  And would be interesting to see what he could do behind a much better OL here than he’s had in AZ.  
 

Essentially getting a 3rd round pick to take on salary.  Yes please. 

Edited February 17, 2020 by Alphadawg7

[Rubes]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Ok, I was originally against this trade, but now that I’ve seen what it would be rumored to look like, I am all for it.  
 

Getting him AND a 3rd round this pick this year for something like a 5th?  Um yeah, all day long.  We easily have the cap room for this, that 3rd round pick could be quite valuable in this draft.  
 

Now I’m hoping this gets done.  And would be interesting to see what he could do behind a much better OL here than he’s had in AZ.  
 

Essentially getting a 3rd round pick to take on salary.  Yes please. 

 

The 3rd rounder is what makes this so interesting. I'm starting to come around to it as well, though we do have several big contracts coming up soon...

 

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 

The 3rd rounder is what makes this so interesting. I'm starting to come around to it as well, though we do have several big contracts coming up soon...

 

Yeah, but we got a lot of cap space and his contract would fall off quick enough that it should impact our future contracts coming up.  
 

Yeah, I’m not into it UNLESS we get that 3rd rounder or better.  But if we do, it’s a big yes from me.  

[hjnick]

On ‎2‎/‎14‎/‎2020 at 4:18 PM, stuvian said:

draft a newbie with fresh legs at half the cost

half?  More like 90% of the cost.

 

I think if we are giving up 5-10MIL of the cap for a RB, then the return has to be heavily in our favor.

 

I think we would have to swap 2nd round picks (moving up 18 spots) and bring a 6th up to a 3rd/4th round pick sounds like reasonable compensation for cap hit.

 

IF we don't get exactly what we want from this trade, I say don't do it.  Go w/ a rookie.

[njbuff]

Has this been talked about or is this made up like most of the crap I post in here? ?

[Tommy]

4 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

Well, the article came out this morning and made the case to trade for him, but the author was flawed in his rationale.  Many people have speculated on different people to use in free agency, and all were interesting, except this one.  I stand behind my previous comments.  Why would anyone want to spend an exorbitant amt. of $ on a 31 yr. old, often injured RB, past his prime, and very expensive.  Too bad as he was a very dynamic RB a few years ago.

 

David Johnson is 28 years old, and doesn't turn 29 until December. While I agree that he is past his prime, even last year he was still a pretty good receiving option. I'm completely on board with the trade if we can get an extra 3rd round pick plus a veteran receiving back in DJ to backup Singletary for the cost of some cap space. For those who would rather draft a back, why not do both? What if we used the 3rd rounder acquired in the trade to draft a cost-controlled RB for the next four years?

[mannc]

11 minutes ago, Tommy said:

 

David Johnson is 28 years old, and doesn't turn 29 until December. While I agree that he is past his prime, even last year he was still a pretty good receiving option. I'm completely on board with the trade if we can get an extra 3rd round pick plus a veteran receiving back in DJ to backup Singletary for the cost of some cap space. For those who would rather draft a back, why not do both? What if we used the 3rd rounder acquired in the trade to draft a cost-controlled RB for the next four years?

No way we would get a third round pick from AZ in that scenario.  At most, they would agree to swap third-round picks with us.  Might still make sense for that return...

On 2/15/2020 at 5:04 AM, MAJBobby said:

I would take David Johnson’s Salary and a 3rd round pick for one of our 6th’s 

You don't really think AZ would do that deal, do you?

[BillsfanAZ]

Cardinals will most likely cut Johnson since nobody wants to take on his salary. Johnson would be a good signing at a lower price but if he is cut I am betting he ends up with the Bucs. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, BillsMafia13 said:

Well freeman signed an extension in 2017. Why would he command a big contract?

 

Because he'd be cut. So his new contract has nothing to do with his old one. It's just maximizing guarantees on a new deal.

[Rubes]

33 minutes ago, BillsfanAZ said:

Cardinals will most likely cut Johnson since nobody wants to take on his salary. Johnson would be a good signing at a lower price but if he is cut I am betting he ends up with the Bucs. 

 

I thought the Cards GM went on the record to say that he would not be cut...I don't think they want to pick up that dead cap figure...

[BarleyNY]

4 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

The reason they would consider it is because they ideally want to keep drake.  You cant tie up that amount of money in 2 running backs and expect to be successful.  The money saved basically goes right into drakes pocket.    

Arizona is estimated to have $51.5M of free cap space in 2020.  They can pay Drake fair value and Johnson for one more season if they want.  Incidentally, Spotrac estimates Drake’s market value at 4 years, $22M or $5.5M AAV.  That’s nothing for the Cards to take on right now.  They are fine.  The big difference with Houston was that they were in awful cap shape when they made their deal with Cleveland.
 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/arizona-cardinals/kenyan-drake-19023/market-value/

Edited February 17, 2020 by BarleyNY

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, Tommy said:

 

David Johnson is 28 years old, and doesn't turn 29 until December. While I agree that he is past his prime, even last year he was still a pretty good receiving option. I'm completely on board with the trade if we can get an extra 3rd round pick plus a veteran receiving back in DJ to backup Singletary for the cost of some cap space. For those who would rather draft a back, why not do both? What if we used the 3rd rounder acquired in the trade to draft a cost-controlled RB for the next four years?

Because it’s a waste of resources when you already have one very good back with a cost controlled contract the next 3 years AND David Johnson.  I’d rather draft an offensive or defensive lineman 

[Tommy]

22 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Because it’s a waste of resources when you already have one very good back with a cost controlled contract the next 3 years AND David Johnson.  I’d rather draft an offensive or defensive lineman 

 

I was really aiming that response to those who are advocating for drafting a back. It's not necessarily what I would do. In fact, if we did receive a 3rd rounder (the likelihood of it being a 3rd is rightly up for debate), I'd be an advocate for using that pick on a different position. I wouldn't feel the need to draft an RB at all if we had Singletary and David Johnson.

[C.Biscuit97]

Man, he looked slow last year.  And that was playing with a mobile quarterback who opens up run lanes.  Life of a running back in the nfl sucks.  They need to get every cent when they can because they age fast. 

[NewEra]

25 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Man, he looked slow last year.  And that was playing with a mobile quarterback who opens up run lanes.  Life of a running back in the nfl sucks.  They need to get every cent when they can because they age fast. 

Yeah, it’s really sad.  It’s a glorious position in HS and College.....than once you get to the NFL you realize you should’ve played DB or LB

[BillsMafia13]

4 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

Because he'd be cut. So his new contract has nothing to do with his old one. It's just maximizing guarantees on a new deal.

I doubt he’ll get a huge contract if he gets cut though considering his last one was terrible

[The Jokeman]

His contact is way too much even if we have the cap room. He isn't what he was and doubt ever gets there again. Give me an Isaiah Crowell or career backup on the cheap. 

[MAJBobby]

5 hours ago, mannc said:

No way we would get a third round pick from AZ in that scenario.  At most, they would agree to swap third-round picks with us.  Might still make sense for that return...

You don't really think AZ would do that deal, do you?

If they want to clear the salary they are going to have too 

[Da webster guy]

On 2/14/2020 at 6:34 PM, NewEra said:

I’d love to land Johnson.  I think he’s a great compliment to singletary.  I just wouldn’t want any part of that salary.  If they cut him, I hope we try and sign him

 

I agree.  Short deals are always in play for teams with big cap space.  I'll bet 90% of the replies here are from people that have never seen him play, the guy is a weapon and an elite receiving back.  He only has 5 years of work and was a 1st team all pro for Gods sake. 

 

Two years ago he caught 5 passes and in 2016 he caught 80 and had 1200+ on the ground.

 

Get a pick or two from the Cards and DJ can do what Shady did for us in his later years but less wear n tear, as the key to this cat is keeping him healthy.

  

8-10 carries a game 3-5 catches, knows how to block.   

 

I hope we do it.

 

[TheBeaneBandit]

Johnson would add a pretty nice receiving option for Allen. His salary is tough to swallow though. In the end, the price/pick would have to be right.

[GreggTX]

I think we're in great shape with Singletary as our #1 RB. I see no need to trade when guys like Breida and C Hyde are likely to be released. Hyde has power and Brieda has world class speed. There are probably going to be other affordable options in FA as well. Save those draft picks for OL and CB competition

[Big Turk]

Uh. No.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

22 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

Arizona is estimated to have $51.5M of free cap space in 2020.  They can pay Drake fair value and Johnson for one more season if they want.  Incidentally, Spotrac estimates Drake’s market value at 4 years, $22M or $5.5M AAV.  That’s nothing for the Cards to take on right now.  They are fine.  The big difference with Houston was that they were in awful cap shape when they made their deal with Cleveland.
 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/arizona-cardinals/kenyan-drake-19023/market-value/

 

51.5 minus humphries new deal, and minus rookies?  What are their needs though?  I assume they would like to improve on 5-10-1.

 

Their best receiver is 37 before the season starts, they have one of the worst defenses in the league, and their best 2 defenders are 30.  If they keep drake at that rate (which i would think is low), you have 2 running backs making a ton of money... and less money to use to actually improve your team.  Trading johnson would save them 8 million in space - which if used right can be another starter or two... or you can use that money on your backup running back. 

[BarleyNY]

34 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

51.5 minus humphries new deal, and minus rookies?  What are their needs though?  I assume they would like to improve on 5-10-1.

 

Their best receiver is 37 before the season starts, they have one of the worst defenses in the league, and their best 2 defenders are 30.  If they keep drake at that rate (which i would think is low), you have 2 running backs making a ton of money... and less money to use to actually improve your team.  Trading johnson would save them 8 million in space - which if used right can be another starter or two... or you can use that money on your backup running back. 

There were two special circumstances that led to the Osweiler trade:

 

1) Houston needed cap space immediately.  Arizona doesn’t.  They’re unlikely to be able to use all of their space almost no matter what they do.  Even if they go totally nuts this offseason they can easily push out first year cap hits on their deals.
 

2) Cleveland needed to work around a big issue.  They could not get free agents to come there without massively overpaying.  So it made sense to use some of their ample cap space to buy a draft pick - a pick in the following season due to league rules by the way.  Buffalo isn’t a premier destination, but things aren’t remotely in that ballpark here.

 

Think about it this way:  The Bills would want to be fairly compensated for eating X dollars of cap space.  Each draft pick has a dollar value equivalent.  Simply put that'd be the market value of an equivalent FA player minus the contract of the rookie (total over 4 seasons).  The Bills would want that to be compensated with whatever pick equated to X dollars - or better.  Why would either team make that trade without some additional incentive?  Neither team here really has that. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

There were two special circumstances that led to the Osweiler trade:

 

1) Houston needed cap space immediately.  Arizona doesn’t.  They’re unlikely to be able to use all of their space almost no matter what they do.  Even if they go totally nuts this offseason they can easily push out first year cap hits on their deals.
 

2) Cleveland needed to work around a big issue.  They could not get free agents to come there without massively overpaying.  So it made sense to use some of their ample cap space to buy a draft pick - a pick in the following season due to league rules by the way.  Buffalo isn’t a premier destination, but things aren’t remotely in that ballpark here.

 

Think about it this way:  The Bills would want to be fairly compensated for eating X dollars of cap space.  Each draft pick has a dollar value equivalent.  Simply put that'd be the market value of an equivalent FA player minus the contract of the rookie (total over 4 seasons).  The Bills would want that to be compensated with whatever pick equated to X dollars - or better.  Why would either team make that trade without some additional incentive?  Neither team here really has that. 

 

It would only make sense if Arizona signs a couple of big name free agents and are in need of the cap space created by trading him.  Purely hypothetical - if offered would you consider.  I wouldn't seek out this trade in any capacity.

[BarleyNY]

49 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

It would only make sense if Arizona signs a couple of big name free agents and are in need of the cap space created by trading him.  Purely hypothetical - if offered would you consider.  I wouldn't seek out this trade in any capacity.

In general, I’d only consider such a deal if we were getting some significant value beyond the draft pick equivalent of the cap hit - especially considering the pick would be a year away.  In this case, it’d depend on the compensation.  We’d be paying Johnson $11.15M to play for us in 2020 or $10.2M not to.  I’d expect the latter.  Cleveland took a second to eat $16M.  That’s a big discount so it is not my ballpark.  I pass unless I get their 2021 first, which won’t happen even with us giving a 2020 third or something like that.  What’s likely to happen is that Arizona eats part of his salary and trades him.