Athletic: "What the advanced stats tell us about Josh Allen’s growth in 2019 and beyond"

[transplantbillsfan]

There's plenty in this article, but it's got a paywall so I'm trying to just get some of the highlights...

https://theathletic.com/1582804/2020/02/04/what-the-advanced-stats-tell-us-about-josh-allens-growth-in-2019-and-beyond/

At one point, ESPN NFL Draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. stated, “Stats are for losers,” when defending his stance on Allen.

 

 

...

 

With Allen’s second season in the rearview, we dove deep into the advanced stats to find where Allen made the most progress, where he still needs to improve and what the Bills can do to help him along this offseason. All stats are courtesy of SportRadar unless otherwise noted.

 

...

 

Situational football

Young quarterbacks often face a learning curve when it comes to performing in the red zone. The field shrinks and passing windows get tighter. But Allen excelled in this area. He completed only 48 percent of his passes, below the league average, but connected on 12 touchdowns and did not throw an interception.

 

...

 

Allen also fared better on third down in 2019. After completing 46 percent of his third down attempts as a rookie for one touchdown and four interceptions, Allen improved to a 56-percent completion rate on third down with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. He was 22^nd in the league with 47 passing first downs, but his 17 rushing first downs on third down trailed only Lamar Jackson among quarterbacks.

 

...

 

He was eighth in the league in passer rating on third-and-7 or more with five touchdowns and one interception. 

 

...

 

Accuracy

You can attribute that to Allen’s development and the improved talent around him, as John Brown, Cole Beasley, Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox all lifted the offense.

 

The improvement could have been even more obvious if not for drops. Bills receivers dropped 6.7 percent of Allen’s passes, the highest drop rate in the NFL this season. Despite the Bills’ additions at wide receiver, Allen still dealt with 31 drops. 

 

...

 

A year ago, Allen posted a completion percentage 6.8 percent below expectation, third worst in football. He improved that number to 3.7 percent, which was fifth worst among qualifying quarterbacks.

 

...

 

Allen’s intended air yards per pass dropped from 11 to 9.4, still fifth highest in football.

 

...

 

 

Even a small boost to his deep passing numbers would do wonders to open up the offense. As Brent Vigen, his college offensive coordinator put it in a conversation earlier this year, “I know having had to defend his completion percentage here, we had that conversation a lot, and I’m certain it’s not going to be some barrier to lead his team to winning seasons and have a great extended career.

 

“I do think the nature of his game, it’s challenging to be in the elite maybe in completion percentage, but you balance that with playmaking, there’s a line there somewhere. I know that’s probably going to be where his game tilts to the playmaking. As long as you go through the course of a game and that volume of throws that you should never miss doesn’t pile up, I think that’s the biggest thing.”

 

...

 

He was more aggressive in 2019, throwing into a tight window (one yard or less of separation) 15 percent of the time, up from 13 percent a year ago. He’s not shying away from these tougher throws.

 

Top competition

Going into 2020, how Allen fares against top competition will be a key aspect of measuring his development. The Bills played five games against teams that qualified for the postseason in 2019. The Bills were 1-4 in those games, with the lone win coming against the Titans prior to their quarterback change. In those five games, Allen completed 51 percent of his passes for 5.6 yards per attempt, seven touchdowns and four interceptions. 

 

...

 

If the Bills are going to take the next step in 2020, Allen will need to play better against top competition. Like everything with Allen, it comes down to consistency. 

 

Moving forward

The Bills have nearly $90 million in salary cap space and nine picks in the upcoming draft, so what can they do to help Allen in 2020?

 

...

 

If the passing offense and the team are going to take the next step, the Bills will need to continue to improve the pass protection and find a receiver capable of winning in contested situations.

 

...

 

Just as important is Allen’s individual improvement and how the coaches game plan according to it. Allen had the eighth-highest time to throw this season at an average of 2.86 seconds from snap to throw. 

 

...

 

Allen was also much better when running play action, completing nearly two third of his passes with an 8:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He had a 124.1 passer rating when running play action from under center, completing 42-of-61 attempts for six touchdowns and one interception. Of those 61 attempts, 30 went for first downs.

 

...

 

This team’s 2020 ceiling and floor are dependent on which direction Allen goes.

[JaCrispy]

Ugh, do we have to? So depressing...lol

[Nextmanup]

6 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Ugh, do we have to? So depressing...lol

I know what you mean.

 

This stuff will end at the end of the upcoming season.

 

Nowhere to hide after that.

 

 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Can’t wait to see what presents Beane provides for the O this offseason—I fully expect additional growth from our young QB accordingly. 

[Mango]

53 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Like everything with Allen, it comes down to consistency. 

 

This sentence is why we have all these 50 page threads on Josh. 

 

Poster A: "Josh has been really great"

 

Poster B: "Josh has been pretty bad"

 

Both are correct. 

[transplantbillsfan]

Just now, Mango said:

 

This sentence is why we have all these 50 page threads on Josh. 

 

Poster A: "Josh has been really great"

 

Poster B: "Josh has been pretty bad"

 

Both are correct. 

 

Both are correct, but the problem with guys like Poster B is that they say things like "Josh Allen has a 56.3% completion percentage!"

 

That's literally an argument I've seen regarding Allen in recent weeks.

 

I shouldn't have to explain why statements like this are problematic.

 

The main question is whether Josh Allen is getting better or worse?

 

Answer is pretty obvious.

 

Anyone with an understanding of where he was as a High School QB prospect just 6 years ago would pretty objectively be impressed if not astounded at how far he's progressed in that pretty brief period of time, especially without the rigorous single-sport focus and major QB camps most of these NFL QBs would have already gone through in High School.

[Mango]

1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Both are correct, but the problem with guys like Poster B is that they say things like "Josh Allen has a 56.3% completion percentage!"

 

That's literally an argument I've seen regarding Allen in recent weeks.

 

I shouldn't have to explain why statements like this are problematic.

 

The main question is whether Josh Allen is getting better or worse?

 

Answer is pretty obvious.

 

Anyone with an understanding of where he was as a High School QB prospect just 6 years ago would pretty objectively be impressed if not astounded at how far he's progressed in that pretty brief period of time, especially without the rigorous single-sport focus and major QB camps most of these NFL QBs would have already gone through in High School.

 

Show me on the doll where Poster B touched you...

[C.Biscuit97]

Allen definitely showed some improvement.  But no one says stats are for losers when talking about Mahomes. 

[ngbills]

23 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Both are correct, but the problem with guys like Poster B is that they say things like "Josh Allen has a 56.3% completion percentage!"

 

That's literally an argument I've seen regarding Allen in recent weeks.

 

I shouldn't have to explain why statements like this are problematic.

 

The main question is whether Josh Allen is getting better or worse?

 

Answer is pretty obvious.

 

Anyone with an understanding of where he was as a High School QB prospect just 6 years ago would pretty objectively be impressed if not astounded at how far he's progressed in that pretty brief period of time, especially without the rigorous single-sport focus and major QB camps most of these NFL QBs would have already gone through in High School.

Problem with that is that it does not really matter how much he improved. Its how high he will get. People are right to have concerns about his accuracy. Yes its getting better in some regards but still not good enough. There are many people out there that dont think accuracy continues to improve. Josh has worked hard on it for multiple years now and where it lands who knows. 

[BigBillsFan]

30 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Both are correct, but the problem with guys like Poster B is that they say things like "Josh Allen has a 56.3% completion percentage!"

 

That's literally an argument I've seen regarding Allen in recent weeks.

 

I shouldn't have to explain why statements like this are problematic.

 

The main question is whether Josh Allen is getting better or worse?

 

Answer is pretty obvious.

 

Anyone with an understanding of where he was as a High School QB prospect just 6 years ago would pretty objectively be impressed if not astounded at how far he's progressed in that pretty brief period of time, especially without the rigorous single-sport focus and major QB camps most of these NFL QBs would have already gone through in High School.

 

Your argument has no weight, it's not how far he's come at all. It's about what he does or is able to. Every QB in the league from high school advanced, the question is where do they end up. It's rarely a lack of effort that stops success, it's just mental and physical limitations.

 

I hope it's Big Ben territory with more athleticism.

 

Also since it's me who pointed out his completion % it's also fairly obvious that objectivity isn't the end measure, but how we feel about him at this stage. I have hope for him, but not with the offensive schemes we have.

[Bangarang]

34 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Both are correct, but the problem with guys like Poster B is that they say things like "Josh Allen has a 56.3% completion percentage!"

 

That's literally an argument I've seen regarding Allen in recent weeks.

 

I shouldn't have to explain why statements like this are problematic.

 

The main question is whether Josh Allen is getting better or worse?

 

Answer is pretty obvious.

 

Anyone with an understanding of where he was as a High School QB prospect just 6 years ago would pretty objectively be impressed if not astounded at how far he's progressed in that pretty brief period of time, especially without the rigorous single-sport focus and major QB camps most of these NFL QBs would have already gone through in High School.

Saying he’s progressed since high school doesn’t do much for me. In fact, it would be really bad if he didn’t improve. 
 

What I care about is how good he is relative to the rest of the league and if his play can lead us to sustained success. 

[nedboy7]

Stats are meaningless.  Read that here many times. 
just go w that feeling you get as you watch drunk. 

Edited February 4, 2020 by nedboy7

[Royale with Cheese]

8 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Problem with that is that it does not really matter how much he improved. Its how high he will get. People are right to have concerns about his accuracy. Yes its getting better in some regards but still not good enough. There are many people out there that dont think accuracy continues to improve. Josh has worked hard on it for multiple years now and where it lands who knows. 

 

Which is why we left so many points on the field.  

 

Josh did improve but he's not at the level you want a top 10 pick to be.  He's showing promise, which is encouraging but he's got to take that next step.

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

I know what you mean.

 

This stuff will end at the end of the upcoming season.

 

Nowhere to hide after that.

 

 

It will only end if Allen utterly flames out.

 

I promise that, if he has a great season, the never-Allen brigade will not falter even for a moment.

[ngbills]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

It will only end if Allen utterly flames out.

 

I promise that, if he has a great season, the never-Allen brigade will not falter even for a moment.

Just like if he has terrible seasons some will say he just needs xyz.

 

The majority of people want him to succeed and get better. That gets confused with your just an Allen basher. If Allen becomes what Bills fans want him to be then who cares what some people say. 

[JaCrispy]

7 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

It will only end if Allen utterly flames out.

 

I promise that, if he has a great season, the never-Allen brigade will not falter even for a moment.

You do realize that the “never-Allen” brigade was probably close to 75% of the fan base the night he was drafted, right?

 

Most fans wanted either Darnold or Rosen, and many wanted Baker...but the very few that wanted Allen were mocked and ridiculed...

Edited February 4, 2020 by JaCrispy

[thebandit27]

13 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Just like if he has terrible seasons some will say he just needs xyz.

 

The majority of people want him to succeed and get better. That gets confused with your just an Allen basher. If Allen becomes what Bills fans want him to be then who cares what some people say. 

The majority of people, yes.

 

There are, undoubtedly, a faction of fans that clearly would prefer that he fail so that they can be “right”.

 

I’m sure we can all name two or three from this board.

 

10 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

You do realize that the “never-Allen” brigade was probably close to 75% of the fan base the night he was drafted, right?

 

Most fans wanted either Darnold or Rosen, and many wanted Baker...but the very few that wanted Allen were mocked and ridiculed...

Well, since I was on record (many times over) as wanting any of the 5, yes, I’m well aware of people’s pre-draft opinions (most of which were based upon absolutely zero analysis beyond what they read).

 

I was among Allen’s biggest backers. Not because I felt he was a sure thing, but because he had a real shot to be the best QB in the class.

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

 

Show me on the doll where Poster B touched you...

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Allen definitely showed some improvement.  But no one says stats are for losers when talking about Mahomes. 

 

Are you having an argument with the voices in your head?

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

The majority of people, yes.

 

There are, undoubtedly, a faction of fans that clearly would prefer that he fail so that they can be “right”.

 

I’m sure we can all name two or three from this board.

 

Well, since I was on record (many times over) as wanting any of the 5, yes, I’m well aware of people’s pre-draft opinions (most of which were based upon absolutely zero analysis beyond what they read).

 

I was among Allen’s biggest backers. Not because I felt he was a sure thing, but because he had a real shot to be the best QB in the class.

Yes you have been there since the beginning on Josh. I was not and I came around very quickly on the kid. I wish we had a few more people who could own up to and be honest about their views on Josh since the start.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

Saying he’s progressed since high school doesn’t do much for me. In fact, it would be really bad if he didn’t improve. 
 

What I care about is how good he is relative to the rest of the league and if his play can lead us to sustained success. 

 

Wow... good job distorting what I said

[JaCrispy]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

The majority of people, yes.

 

There are, undoubtedly, a faction of fans that clearly would prefer that he fail so that they can be “right”.

 

I’m sure we can all name two or three from this board.

 

Well, since I was on record (many times over) as wanting any of the 5, yes, I’m well aware of people’s pre-draft opinions (most of which were based upon absolutely zero analysis beyond what they read).

 

I was among Allen’s biggest backers. Not because I felt he was a sure thing, but because he had a real shot to be the best QB in the class.

And I respect everyone’s opinion, as nobody really knows who will pan out...

 

I was just referring to “never Allen brigade” would never falter, ( even if he proved himself) comment...I would disagree with this because most on were “never Allen”...but I’m sure if he was able to be a top 15 passer consistently, that would change.

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

And I respect everyone’s opinion, as nobody really knows who will pan out...

 

I was just referring to “never Allen brigade” would never falter, ( even if he proved himself) comment...I would disagree with this because most on were “never Allen”...but I’m sure if he was able to be a top 15 passer consistently, that would change.

I don’t consider the folks that didn’t want him pre-draft as being never-Allen. I’m talking about those people who declared him a bust pre-draft, continued calling him a bust as a rookie, refuse to acknowledge anything he does well, and will never do so.

 

Like I said, we can all name two or three.

[JaCrispy]

10 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I don’t consider the folks that didn’t want him pre-draft as being never-Allen. I’m talking about those people who declared him a bust pre-draft, continued calling him a bust as a rookie, refuse to acknowledge anything he does well, and will never do so.

 

Like I said, we can all name two or three.

Ahhh, I see...fair enough then...?

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Your argument has no weight, it's not how far he's come at all. It's about what he does or is able to. Every QB in the league from high school advanced, the question is where do they end up. It's rarely a lack of effort that stops success, it's just mental and physical limitations.

 

How far he's come and the fact that he's relatively young to the game in terms of expert reps and practice as compared to most 1st round prospects and his significant improvement from year 1 to year 2 is, first of all, an indication that he hasn't peaked. 

 

Clearly that's at the very least a sign of optimism for everyone.

 

If people expected him to go from what he was his rookie year to Drew Brees in his 2nd, that'd be a ridiculously unrealistic expectation and that's on them.

 

[ngbills]

https://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/josh-allen/TKQp1vTvEeKZ5AAmVebBJg/videos.htm?videoid=6a49fe09-90c3-43a9-afd5-0fef25f4d68e

 

[GoBills808]

50 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I don’t consider the folks that didn’t want him pre-draft as being never-Allen. I’m talking about those people who declared him a bust pre-draft, continued calling him a bust as a rookie, refuse to acknowledge anything he does well, and will never do so.

 

Like I said, we can all name two or three.

I can name two or three on the first page of this thread

[Bangarang]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

How far he's come and the fact that he's relatively young to the game in terms of expert reps and practice as compared to most 1st round prospects and his significant improvement from year 1 to year 2 is, first of all, an indication that he hasn't peaked. 

 

Clearly that's at the very least a sign of optimism for everyone.

 

If people expected him to go from what he was his rookie year to Drew Brees in his 2nd, that'd be a ridiculously unrealistic expectation and that's on them.

 

lol didn’t you predict he’d be an MVP candidate last year?

[Mr. WEO]

yeah but I read right here 3-4 times in the last 24 hours that Josh Allen this year is not as good as a 2018 Nick Mullens.....

 

 

[GoBills808]

The advanced stats tell us that Duck Hodges is a better quarterback

[Punching Bag]

He hasn't thrown 300 yards per game so will never make Superbowl.

 

Oh that is right defense has something to do with game too - neither team in Superbowl threw for 300 yards.

[WideNine]

I read that he improved in just about every area.

 

So looking for that to continue with better conststecy and hopefully less drops with better receiving options.

 

I don't see McD going away from his protect the ball at all costs mantra, but improvement is always good... We will see, if he hits a ceiling

 

 

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

How far he's come and the fact that he's relatively young to the game in terms of expert reps and practice as compared to most 1st round prospects and his significant improvement from year 1 to year 2 is, first of all, an indication that he hasn't peaked. 

 

Clearly that's at the very least a sign of optimism for everyone.

 

 

 

No.

 

Improving isn't a sign you haven't peaked. In fact, improvement is always what happens just before someone peaks.

 

There's certainly a ton of room for hope. I'm hopeful and if I had to predict, my guess would be that he's going to keep improving. But really there's just no way to know, either way.

 

 

6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

If people expected him to go from what he was his rookie year to Drew Brees in his 2nd, that'd be a ridiculously unrealistic expectation and that's on them.

 

 

 

Oh, my God, that's classic. Really? An unrealistic expectation? On them?

 

Aren't you the guy who thought he was going to be in the running for MVP in 2019? I mean, seriously, isn't that exactly what you said in literally hundreds and hundreds of posts?

 

Nearly anyone else should be able to say this. But not you. A lack of realistic expectation, thy name is Trannie.

 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

40 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No.

 

Improving isn't a sign you haven't peaked. In fact, improvement is always what happens just before someone peaks.

 

And it's also something that continues if you're only at the beginning or in the middle of it.

 

Quote

 

There's certainly a ton of room for hope. I'm hopeful and if I had to predict, my guess would be that he's going to keep improving. But really there's just no way to know, either way.

 

There's never any way to know anything, but if you understand Allen's history and the truly raw prospect he was--lacking in specialization and the constant QB camp reps at places like the Manning academy while staying at a small HS to keep workingon the Family Farm and everything that followed-- then your hope would be actual optimism combined with hope rather than the typical cynical connotations you combine with that word every time you dish it out.

 

Quote

Oh, my God, that's classic. Really? An unrealistic expectation? On them?

 

Aren't you the guy who thought he was going to be in the running for MVP in 2019? I mean, seriously, isn't that exactly what you said in literally hundreds and hundreds of posts?

 

Nearly anyone else should be able to say this. But not you. A lack of realistic expectation, thy name is Trannie.

 

 

I can say it.

 

Just because I made a prediction doesn't mean I thought it should be the expectation.

 

C'mon man. You're intelligent enough to understand nuance. Right?

 

There are folks here who seem genuinely upset he's not an All-Pro already.

 

That's very different from my stance... both pre and post season.

 

I have genuine hope and optimism about Allen going into next season... the arrow is pointing up.

 

Hope you can shed some of the cynicism for actual optimism... but that might just be hoping too much on my part...

Edited February 5, 2020 by transplantbillsfan

[JoPoy88]

27 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I can say it.

 

Just because I made a prediction doesn't mean I thought it should be the expectation.

 

C'mon man. You're intelligent enough to understand nuance. Right?

 

 

 

Ah yes, I too always make bets and predictions without any expectation that they could actually happen in reality. Very nuanced way of thinking.

Edited February 5, 2020 by JoPoy88

[colin]

his numbers on 3rd and long vs 3rd down in general and his numbers in play action really don't help change my perception that our OC is just hitting buttons on madden rather than building a cohesive offense.  i really hope that changes w some new talent next season.

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

 

Ah yes, I too always make bets and predictions without any expectation that they could actually happen in reality. Very nuanced way of thinking.

 

Your wife is pregnant and you predict it's a boy.

 

Should she buy blue paint for the nursery and should everyone coming to the baby shower shop for a baby boy because you told everyone you thought it would be a boy?

Edited February 5, 2020 by transplantbillsfan

[ngbills]

How could anyone expect Lamar Jackson to win the MVP in just his second year. Wait...

How could you expect Mahomes to win an MVP in his second year. Wait...

What if Murray, Jones, Lock or Mayfield or Darnold win it next year. Still the what do you expect from Allen. 

 

You dont need Allen to be MVP or Drew Brees. But you do need him to be better. Nothing wrong with that and there is a middle ground between where he is today and MVP level which is reasonable to expect. 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

Josh Allen has already exhibited in 2 short years an athleticism few knew existed. He was always going to be raw and take longer on his projected path. Maybe even 4 years? I still believe he has competed with an oline, wr Corp and te group very underwhelming. This is the season to spend most of that cap money on offense. If JA starts creeping into a 90+ qb rating than the progression continues. Get him a legit #1 Wr & TE and he'll really take charge.

Edited February 5, 2020 by LABILLBACKER

[John from Riverside]

On 2/4/2020 at 12:26 PM, Nextmanup said:

I know what you mean.

 

This stuff will end at the end of the upcoming season.

 

Nowhere to hide after that.

 

 

Who is hiding?

 

 

[BigPappy]

 There are no such thing as indicators for predicting future growth of a player. Some players are draft bottom dwellers that light it up when given a chance and others fade into non existence. It's no different for any of the players in the top half of the draft either. Some start slow, take a few years and the light goes on and wham-o they are top notch players while others are expected to do great things out of the gate and they fall on their faces. 

 The so called experts don't know any more than your above average Football fan so they really just need to sit down and ST*U. Just my 2 cents worth....... which is all it's good for. LOL!