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The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19


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2 minutes ago, meazza said:

 

Stop being a troll.

 

https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/covid-19-is-under-control-in-montreal-health-officials-say

 

Keep in mind Montreal was a hot zone.

 

Were these southern states hit hard already?

I'm only going by hospitalizations and Texas, North Carolina South Carolina, Arkansas, Mississippi, Utah, Arizona, California, and Oregon are reporting some of their highest seven day averages.  So down South and out West.  This virus has a mind of its own.

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Just now, Doc Brown said:

I'm only going by hospitalizations and Texas, North Carolina South Carolina, Arkansas, Mississippi, Utah, Arizona, California, and Oregon are reporting some of their highest seven day averages.  So down South and out West.  This virus has a mind of its own.

 

This virus follows the same trend everywhere.  

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Just now, meazza said:

 

We have the same issue here.  Restaurants should be open soon but no bars or gyms?  Many of these owners have threatened to defy the orders of the government.  


In LA it’s pretty interesting to see/learn who is outraged (and I mean outraged) over places opening, even after the past two weeks of supporting the protests. There’s a stark divide at least among my friends, the outraged ones are the ones still terrified they’ll get it — despite all being under 40 w no underlying conditions. Everyone else busts their balls/lady balls. 
 

The fear hook was sunk deep in some minds. 

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1 minute ago, Doc Brown said:

I'm only going by hospitalizations and Texas, North Carolina South Carolina, Arkansas, Mississippi, Utah, Arizona, California, and Oregon are reporting some of their highest seven day averages.  So down South and out West.  This virus has a mind of its own.

They're not at the highest 7 day averages.   The hospitalizations ticked up, but are still below March.  ICUs are nowhere near the peak.  

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Just now, Deranged Rhino said:


In LA it’s pretty interesting to see/learn who is outraged (and I mean outraged) over places opening, even after the past two weeks of supporting the protests. There’s a stark divide at least among my friends, the outraged ones are the ones still terrified they’ll get it — despite all being under 40 w no underlying conditions. Everyone else busts their balls/lady balls. 
 

The fear hook was sunk deep in some minds. 

 

I'm not sure about LA but the internet skews our perspective of public opinion.  Looking at FB or twitter comments, you'd think everyone was hiding in their basement but in reality, most people had quickly defied the orders a long time ago.  

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1 minute ago, meazza said:

 

We have the same issue here.  Restaurants should be open soon but no bars or gyms?  Many of these owners have threatened to defy the orders of the government.  


 

Depends on who you ask, the mass protests coupled with the contradictory statements and actions from the governors and health experts were either the best or worst things that could have happened.   For the weary and skeptics, the debate officially ended.   For those that truly wanted to remain more cautious, their hopes went up in flames.  
 

People are willing to take that tiny risk to get back to normalcy.   There is no going back to full compliance of stringent social distancing.

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2 minutes ago, Magox said:


 

Depends on who you ask, the mass protests coupled with the contradictory statements and actions from the governors and health experts were either the best or worst things that could have happened.   For the weary and skeptics, the debate officially ended.   For those that truly wanted to remain more cautious, their hopes went up in flames.  
 

People are willing to take that tiny risk to get back to normalcy.   There is no going back to full compliance of stringent social distancing.

 

I agree. I will remain cautious with my mother and my baby (when he's born) but that's about it.

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5 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I'm only going by hospitalizations and Texas, North Carolina South Carolina, Arkansas, Mississippi, Utah, Arizona, California, and Oregon are reporting some of their highest seven day averages.  So down South and out West.  This virus has a mind of its own.


Arizona hospitalizations are plummeting 

 

Texas ICU admissions is falling drastically, Florida is barely nudging higher from very sustainable levels that are nowhere near at being stressed.   North Carolina is still at a low level.

 

It appears you are buying into the panic porn.   It’s always the same grifters attempting to paint a certain narrative

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Magox said:


Arizona hospitalizations are plummeting 

 

Texas ICU admissions is falling drastically, Florida is barely nudging higher from very sustainable levels that are nowhere near at being stressed.   North Carolina is still at a low level.

 

It appears you are buying into the panic porn.   It’s always the same grifters attempting to paint a certain narrative

 

 

I guess it's who you follow.  I just assumed by now all states would be on the downside of the curve by now in hospitalizations.

 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:


In LA it’s pretty interesting to see/learn who is outraged (and I mean outraged) over places opening, even after the past two weeks of supporting the protests. There’s a stark divide at least among my friends, the outraged ones are the ones still terrified they’ll get it — despite all being under 40 w no underlying conditions. Everyone else busts their balls/lady balls. 
 

The fear hook was sunk deep in some minds. 


I’ve been pretty much business as usual. Back in the office full time for three weeks. Haircut last weekend.  Dinner reservations Saturday for the wife’s birthday. Come to the light on the other side of the Orange Curtain. 

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3 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I guess it's who you follow.  I just assumed by now all states would be on the downside of the curve by now in hospitalizations.

 

 

 


 

They’re doing just fine.  

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1 hour ago, GG said:

The virus isn't over, but the crisis is.  

 

Still taking pre-cautions. Virus not over but not sure crisis.

 

But people do def have to open up now for work plus other things..

 

Plus people understand how this virus attacks now, blood clots, everything else. Time to open up. People have the knowledge how this virus attacks. Know how as well this virus attacks. 

 

My biggest thing people understand now to help people how this virus attacks people. And how to help people out.

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7 hours ago, GG said:

They're not at the highest 7 day averages.   The hospitalizations ticked up, but are still below March.  ICUs are nowhere near the peak.  

 

"At its peak, Arizona's intensive care unit beds were 78% in use. As of Monday, 76% were occupied. Arizona's Director of Health Services Dr. Cara Christ asked that hospitals "be judicious" in elective surgeries to ensure bed capacity. "

 

And NC has more hospitalization for Covid right now than it ever has. 

 

It's the stat to watch on reopening. Let's not pretend it's going swimmingly. 

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1 hour ago, shoshin said:

 

"At its peak, Arizona's intensive care unit beds were 78% in use. As of Monday, 76% were occupied. Arizona's Director of Health Services Dr. Cara Christ asked that hospitals "be judicious" in elective surgeries to ensure bed capacity. "

 

And NC has more hospitalization for Covid right now than it ever has. 

 

It's the stat to watch on reopening. Let's not pretend it's going swimmingly. 

It's going great. There will not be a second shutdown.

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9 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I guess it's who you follow.  I just assumed by now all states would be on the downside of the curve by now in hospitalizations.

 

 

 

 

So, Alabama wasn't reporting hospitalizations, but now they are reporting, and the totals didn't quite go up for the south as much as Alabama added, and that's a bad thing?

 

Funny how each of those graphs use a different scale, so it looks like things overall haven't improved much.  But if they were all on the same scale we'd notice that the mid-Atlantic's peak should be 5x that of New England, the mid-West's should be 2x, and the South West's (the one seeing the "large" growth) should be 0.5x.

 

Deaths don't seem to be appreciably rising either (thankfully), so it really does seem they've got a handle on all this.  In the next 3-10 days we should see spikes in positive tests from all the protests; if we don't, guess there's something to the speculation about seasonality, or some assumption(s) about transmittability must have been off.  It will be interesting to see how the protest spikes are handled/addressed.

 

2 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

"At its peak, Arizona's intensive care unit beds were 78% in use. As of Monday, 76% were occupied. Arizona's Director of Health Services Dr. Cara Christ asked that hospitals "be judicious" in elective surgeries to ensure bed capacity. "

 

And NC has more hospitalization for Covid right now than it ever has. 

 

It's the stat to watch on reopening. Let's not pretend it's going swimmingly. 

 

But how many of those ICU beds are being used by people that put off surgeries & from other maladies besides COVID-19?  Procedures can only be put off for so long unless they are truly elective.

 

And NC's "spike" in hospitalizations (774) needs to increase by nearly 33% to simply reach 1,000 statewide.  It stinks that there's any, but fairly certain with the additional knowledge they have now that wasn't available in March that they could handle 1,000 cases without overly taxing the system.  Which was the point of the lockdowns in the 1st place.

Edited by Taro T
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9 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:


In LA it’s pretty interesting to see/learn who is outraged (and I mean outraged) over places opening, even after the past two weeks of supporting the protests. There’s a stark divide at least among my friends, the outraged ones are the ones still terrified they’ll get it — despite all being under 40 w no underlying conditions. Everyone else busts their balls/lady balls. 
 

The fear hook was sunk deep in some minds. 

With due respect go your friends, they are a massive part of the problem. The virus has to be dealt with, and if they believe what they do, their support of protests will lead to disaster.  Supporting the strain on hospitals, deaths of hundreds of thousands of protestors and and those they know beyond the protest zone is absurd given their perspective.  
 

It’s not even balls or lack thereof, it’s lack of any semblance of reason and a surreal willingness to lie in subservience at the feet of government types who clearly feel politics trump the safety of citizens. 

9 hours ago, Chef Jim said:


I’ve been pretty much business as usual. Back in the office full time for three weeks. Haircut last weekend.  Dinner reservations Saturday for the wife’s birthday. Come to the light on the other side of the Orange Curtain. 

So Cal Chik-fil-a takes reservations ya romantic bastard? 

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Another day without a single state in triple digit deaths. Those that said the low numbers were due to the typical weekend hangover in reporting (including me) were clearly wrong. The virus is chugging along at a steady but very low pace. It appears to have sought its own level, like water, and is now just one of a number of things that our elderly population is at risk of dying from. We can continue to count the results, and I will for the foreseeable future, but.....This story is over! 

Edited by SoCal Deek
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2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Another day without a single state in triple digit deaths. Those that said the low numbers were due to the typical weekend hangover in reporting (including me) were clearly wrong. The virus is chugging along at a steady but very low pace. It appears to have sought its own level, like water, and is now just one of a number of things that our elderly population is at risk of dying from. We can continue to count the results, and I will for the foreseeable future, but.....This story is over! 

I think the next two weeks are going to be very informative. With all the protest if the Covid numbers do not jump it is time to reopen everyrhing. A stadium is less packed then those protests and with widespread nature of the protest this is the petri dish I did not think we would have 

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I continue to be amazed at immediate condemnations of any positive observations of the Wuhan virus by the officials. 

 

HCQ?  Trump talking point, it can't work.

Infections dropping significantly?  Wait until the second wave.

Hospitalizations falling? Yeah, but what about this county in NW Iowa?

ICU capacity at all time low in the pandemic? Nothing to see here.

Deaths falling? Are you cheering that grandma died?

Asymptomatic transmissions are rare?  Because no one has bothered to formally study the obvious observation, it can't be true.

Viral loads have weakened? Because no one has bothered to formally study the obvious observation, it can't be true.

Virtually no evidence of outdoor transmissions? Stay away from the beach.  Do you want to kill grandma?

 

PS - Now I see the media cheering that there were a handful of positive cases at Tesla's factory.  No mention whether they were symptomatic or how serious the cases were.   

Edited by GG
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12 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I think the next two weeks are going to be very informative. With all the protest if the Covid numbers do not jump it is time to reopen everyrhing. A stadium is less packed then those protests and with widespread nature of the protest this is the petri dish I did not think we would have 

If numbers spike, it's time to drag the leadership in cities and states where protests were allowed to go unchecked into the street (figuratively, not literally) and cast them to the dogs (not actual dogs, btw). 

 

I'm not against protests in the least, but if leadership is not mobilizing forces to warn people about the dangers at every turn, and requiring and enforcing social distancing at an absolute minimum, they are complicit in what will follow. 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I think the next two weeks are going to be very informative. With all the protest if the Covid numbers do not jump it is time to reopen everyrhing. A stadium is less packed then those protests and with widespread nature of the protest this is the petri dish I did not think we would have 

Agreed! While many have screamed about the protests and Memorial Day partying that preceded it, I’m happy to see the experiment begin. Locking everyone in their houses proved nothing! It was like saying we can’t get skin cancer if we never go outside. So...let’s see where this goes. The predominantly young people who took to the streets weren’t forced to go there but we’re gonna find out pretty quickly if social distancing was actually as FULL OF CRAP as everything else the so called experts have told us. Bring it on!

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11 hours ago, Warren Zevon said:

The more we continue to be exposed to the 5G waves, to quicker we all become immune to them. Makes sense - the crisis is done. #FakeVirus

 

You'd better get a bigger set of Depends now that 6G is around the corner

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32 minutes ago, GG said:

I continue to be amazed at immediate condemnations of any positive observations of the Wuhan virus by the officials. 

 

HCQ?  Trump talking point, it can't work.

Infections dropping significantly?  Wait until the second wave.

Hospitalizations falling? Yeah, but what about this county in NW Iowa?

ICU capacity at all time low in the pandemic? Nothing to see here.

Deaths falling? Are you cheering that grandma died?

Asymptomatic transmissions are rare?  Because no one has bothered to formally study the obvious observation, it can't be true.

Viral loads have weakened? Because no one has bothered to formally study the obvious observation, it can't be true.

Virtually no evidence of outdoor transmissions? Stay away from the beach.  Do you want to kill grandma?

 

PS - Now I see the media cheering that there were a handful of positive cases at Tesla's factory.  No mention whether they were symptomatic or how serious the cases were.   

with viral loads weakening, the proper course of action should be to encourage interaction to speed up reaching herd immunity.

Treatments are available now that were not being used in Feb.

 

Forgotten is that the WHO inaccurately identified this as a pnemonia with ventilators as the major treatment.

The death rates was skewed heavily as a ventlator was essentially a death sentence.

Now oxygen masks are being used to get more oxygen into the cells.   

 

 

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2 minutes ago, spartacus said:

 

Forgotten is that the WHO inaccurately identified this as a pnemonia with ventilators as the major treatment.

The death rates was skewed heavily as a ventlator was essentially a death sentence.

Now oxygen masks are being used to get more oxygen into the cells.   

 

 

 

It hasn't been forgotten, it was ignored.

 

In retrospect, it sure looks to be a huge mistake to follow Italy's model, which was to keep as many people away from hopitals and throw the very ill on respirators.  But you'll never hear that reckoning.

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4 minutes ago, spartacus said:

 

Forgotten is that the WHO inaccurately identified this as a pnemonia with ventilators as the major treatment.

The death rates was skewed heavily as a ventlator was essentially a death sentence.

Now oxygen masks are being used to get more oxygen into the cells.   

 

 

Is that actually true? I hadn’t heard that, but it’s really interesting. What’s the difference with a ventilator? Do they not add oxygen, but instead simply recirculate the air from the room?

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18 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

The rising cases from reopening in the south and west should be a lesson. It takes a few weeks for the exponential growth to show a spike. Cases are rising everywhere after opening.It will take 6-8 weeks to see the rise if we use the south as an indication. AZ has its largest hospital system at capacity. NC has rising cases. UT has hugely rising cases. 

 

The fall could be tough. 

 

 

You started off even handed and logical. As the data and outlook has gotten more positive and optimistic, you are always are right there to push fear for the future. Maybe you're generally just a worrisome person or a Debbie Downer, it's just an interesting trend from you.

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Alex Berenson while on Carolla, reminded everyone that Wisconsin was the first state to truly open up in early May.

 

Let's check the data from that apocalypse?  

 

image.thumb.png.3a21700949d43c50c39f6e402b2307f7.png

 

Quote

 

Wisconsin reported 270 new coronavirus cases Tuesday out of 14,227 tests run since the previous day, placing the percentage of positive tests at 1.9% – a new low since the pandemic began to pick up in the state. 

 

The percentage of positive tests, a metric that health officials once used to guide reopening after Gov. Tony Evers' stay-at-home order, has been on the decline with a few blips back upward since early May. Since May 28, it has hovered at or below 5%. 

 

In May, Ryan Westergaard, Department of Health Services chief medical officer, called the dropping percent positive rate an "encouraging sign," but warned that it doesn't signal for certain that transmission rates of the virus are slowing, especially because the state has still tested relatively few of its residents — 368,518 out of more than 5.8 million, as of Tuesday. 

 

The state reports that 21,308 residents have now tested positive for the virus, though nearly seven in 10 sick people have met health officials' definition of "recovered," meaning that symptoms have resolved, 30 days have passed since the onset of symptoms and the person has been released from isolation. 

 

 

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11 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I guess it's who you follow.  I just assumed by now all states would be on the downside of the curve by now in hospitalizations.

 

 

 

facts should be facts- regardless of media outlet

the fact that above graphs are using different scales in the same looking format is done to intentionally skew and spin the message 

 

The use of a 7 day average is also highly misleading.

why not a 30 day ave- which would show the backside of the "curve"

with a 7 day ave, any movement seems like a big deal since the totals are so small

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Is that actually true? I hadn’t heard that, but it’s really interesting. What’s the difference with a ventilator? Do they not add oxygen, but instead simply recirculate the air from the room?

the ventilator is used to assist the muscles of the lung in pumping

for covid, lack of lung muscle is not the problem

covid prevents cells from properly  processing oxygen- similar to high altitude sickness

the proper treatment is to provide more oxygen through standard oxygen masks & tubes- (no need to create crisis for lack of high cost ventilators)

many fewer ventilators - many fewer death sentences

 

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1 hour ago, LB3 said:

You started off even handed and logical. As the data and outlook has gotten more positive and optimistic, you are always are right there to push fear for the future. Maybe you're generally just a worrisome person or a Debbie Downer, it's just an interesting trend from you.

 

Just watching the numbers. The areas that opened first are seeing rising cases. 

 

Politically, more closures seem extremely unlikely. I have always been against the closures. 

 

But that doesn't mean we should not watch what's going on with eyes wide open. Maybe the cases are going up because those areas got spared initially. Maybe they are going up because they are reopening. But to avoid noticing is to put your head in the sand. 

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6 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Just watching the numbers. The areas that opened first are seeing rising cases. 

 

 

This is a gross misrepresentation.    Cases are rising due to more widespread testing.  The positive results continue to drop significantly.  The number of active cases that require hospitalizations and ICU are falling in states that opened up early!  The death rate is dropping faster than WHO Covid retractions. 

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EVEN THE GRAUNIAD IS NOTICING: We often accuse the right of distorting science. But the left changed the coronavirus narrative overnight.

 

This feels like gaslighting. Less than two weeks ago, the enlightened position in both Europe and America was to exercise nothing less than extreme caution. Many of us went much further, taking to social media to castigate others for insufficient social distancing or neglecting to wear masks or daring to believe they could maintain some semblance of a normal life during coronavirus. At the end of April, when the state of Georgia moved to end its lockdown, the Atlantic ran an article with the headline “Georgia’s Experiment in Human Sacrifice”. Two weeks ago we shamed people for being in the street; today we shame them for not being in the street.

 

Well, at least the shaming continues. It’s almost like that’s the key bit. Plus:

Public health experts – as well as many mainstream commentators, plenty of whom in the beginning of the pandemic were already incoherent about the importance of face masks and stay-at-home orders – have hemorrhaged credibility and authority. This is not merely a short-term problem; it will constitute a crisis of trust going forward, when it may be all the more urgent to convince skeptical masses to submit to an unproven vaccine or to another round of crushing stay-at-home orders. Will anyone still listen?

 

Not likely. Trust is the most important asset to public health efforts, but it’s been squandered almost without a thought for the consequences, because our “experts” lack the self-discipline and capacity for reflection to do otherwise.

 

Finally, are you even allowed to say this? “Risk and safety are relative notions and never strictly objective.

 

However, there is one inconvenient truth that cannot be disputed: more black Americans have been killed by three months of coronavirus than the number who have been killed by cops and vigilantes since the turn of the millennium. We may or may not be willing to accept that brutal calculus, but we are obligated, at the very least, to be honest.”

 
 
 
 
 
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On 6/3/2020 at 4:22 PM, GG said:

 

I'm saying that the March lock down didn't save nearly as many lives as the "experts" give it credit for because the majority of the real damage was done in February.  The City didn't fully shut down anyway.  The subways didn't shut down and the cases peaked around Easter.  The telling tale was the shocking revelation that 2/3 of positive cases into May were coming from people who were supposedly home quarantined.  That is bad news for the doomsday crowd, because either the virus had a longer shelf life (unlikely based on data) or there was still a hell of a lot of interpersonal contact for the virus to spread. 

 

All the data coming from NY area (corroborated with personal anecdotal evidence) is that this thing cycled through rapidly and lethally, and then ran its course.

 

My point is not that we shouldn't have shut things down, because based on data (very little) and absolutely zero understanding of his this thing evolves, shutting down was prudent.  My beef is that it is borderline criminal to shut down the economy based on very sketchy data and dubious models (now proven they were dubious), but drag your feet to reopen, when there's so much more known.

 

Yes, the Sweden story is bunk, because nothing changed in their scenario other than still having a higher death count than their neighbors, but much lower than other developed countries.   The theory remains that until you get to a cure, vaccine or herd immunity, the people who are susceptible to this virus, will die.  Sweden front loaded the cases (to be inelegant) and the numbers don't look good now.   Check back in a year when it fully cycles through the other Nordics

 

 

Sweden is not "much lower than other developed countries." It's fifth is deaths per million among countries with 20k or more cases.  Italy and Spain are currently higher because they were hit early and hard.  We'll see if Sweden overtakes them.  

 

The point of a lockdown was to prevent the health system from becoming overwhelmed.  The idea of "flattening the curve" doesn't mean fewer coronavirus cases overall, it means spreading the cases so the health system can accomodate both covid and other serious health issues.  This was the point made in Pueyo's articles. Interestingly he suggested less extreme measures, including masks and social distancing.  Maybe US politicians took more extreme measures due to your focus on culture--they realized many Americans won't adhere to the policies.  

 

Arizona is an interesting case study at the moment.  As cases have increased after re-opening, and reports that ICU facilities are nearing capacity, how should they respond?

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1 hour ago, GG said:

 

This is a gross misrepresentation.    Cases are rising due to more widespread testing.  The positive results continue to drop significantly.  The number of active cases that require hospitalizations and ICU are falling in states that opened up early!  The death rate is dropping faster than WHO Covid retractions. 

 

If you're going to make claims, please provide links. Here are some % pos. numbers for Florida, AZ, and NC. Note: I do not think % positive matters much one testing levels out but that's a different topic...even using it in the way you intend doesn't show what you hope it does.

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida

 

image.thumb.png.a6825f013df9aa3a93363ec01fb77dbd.png

image.thumb.png.eb9cc7530b25d5db6f3c12790bd5c693.png

image.thumb.png.514d22f532fbf121c33376403819683f.png

The cases...if it will let me post all the graphics (could not get AZ in--it has the biggest spike up):

 

image.thumb.png.9e73cd919abfd8294091358999d5493e.png

 

image.thumb.png.9a2967be4adfa5c75bbf82e2d16e1996.png

 

The trends are not established yet and maybe they will come back but we are seeing increased cases and hospitalizations in many of those states. Most predictions around this have sucked but watch the numbers. "It's over" is a declaration that sounds a lot like Trump saying we were going from 15 to ZERO. Way way way too early. 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, spartacus said:

facts should be facts- regardless of media outlet

the fact that above graphs are using different scales in the same looking format is done to intentionally skew and spin the message 

 

The use of a 7 day average is also highly misleading.

why not a 30 day ave- which would show the backside of the "curve"

with a 7 day ave, any movement seems like a big deal since the totals are so small

The graphs are from March to June as far as the number of hospitalizations.

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