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The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19


Hedge

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What is thought to be known about this coronavirus/Wuhan Pneumonia, so far:

  • The outbreak began in Wuhan, China. Population ~11 million. The city is now under lock down.
  • According to the CDC the risk to the general American public is considered low at this time.
  • In it's early stages, a minimum of 500+ people have been infected according to the Chinese government, although many believe this be grossly under reported, and that the true number is in the thousands.
  • 17 dead, so far, most of the deceased are 60+ years old, who, more than likely, had already weakened immune systems.
  • While almost all of the cases involve people in China, it has gone international. 1 case in Seattle, perhaps 1 in Mexico, as well as Thailand, Japan, South Korea.
  • It can take many days for it to present itself and then appear as a flu, fever, pneumonia, respiratory illness such as bronchitis, or common cold symptoms.
  • More than likely it was originally transmitted from a wild animal to humans, but is now contagious and apparently mutating. The exact source remains unknown, but bats, snakes, or civets seem to be the most commonly cited culprits in this outbreak. Highly likely it began in an open air animal and seafood market.
  • Some major international airports are already screening passengers who originated from Wuhan.
  • Saturday is Lunar New Year, a busy travel season in China, which could accelerate distribution of the disease

 

 

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The big problem is that China's foodstock protection is like at a 17th Century level in the 21st Century.  The West discovered that improperly processing raw meat and improperly storing it could get you sick hundreds of years ago.  You've got a lot of people in that country improperly preparing and cooking wild animal and fish meat and then touching everything.  That in addition to lax hygiene because of social norms, and traditions around Chinese New Year means you get these critters being created in China every now and again.  

 

As an aside, I remember in Morocco once, the market had numerous stands of dead, opened rabbits for sale - just hanging with a rope.  Not refrigerated or anything.  Just dangling there in the bacteria loving 75 degree breeze.  

 

They make a big deal about the masks.  They'd be better off washing their hands often and you know, not eating bats raw.    

 

 

Edited by dpberr
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3 hours ago, dpberr said:

The big problem is that China's foodstock protection is like at a 17th Century level in the 21st Century.  The West discovered that improperly processing raw meat and improperly storing it could get you sick hundreds of years ago.  You've got a lot of people in that country improperly preparing and cooking wild animal and fish meat and then touching everything.  That in addition to lax hygiene because of social norms, and traditions around Chinese New Year means you get these critters being created in China every now and again.  

 

As an aside, I remember in Morocco once, the market had numerous stands of dead, opened rabbits for sale - just hanging with a rope.  Not refrigerated or anything.  Just dangling there in the bacteria loving 75 degree breeze.  

 

They make a big deal about the masks.  They'd be better off washing their hands often and you know, not eating bats raw.    

 

 

 
It’s a problem that can’t be solved under Chinese Communism.  The people, the average people live in relative poverty.

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3 hours ago, dpberr said:

The big problem is that China's foodstock protection is like at a 17th Century level in the 21st Century.  The West discovered that improperly processing raw meat and improperly storing it could get you sick hundreds of years ago.  You've got a lot of people in that country improperly preparing and cooking wild animal and fish meat and then touching everything.  That in addition to lax hygiene because of social norms, and traditions around Chinese New Year means you get these critters being created in China every now and again.  

 

As an aside, I remember in Morocco once, the market had numerous stands of dead, opened rabbits for sale - just hanging with a rope.  Not refrigerated or anything.  Just dangling there in the bacteria loving 75 degree breeze.  

 

They make a big deal about the masks.  They'd be better off washing their hands often and you know, not eating bats raw.    

 

 

Huge food traceability issues.  Welcome blockchain.  Even still, not sure that helps with bats.  That's pretty freaking sad that they have to eat a nasty ass bat.  

Edited by CoudyBills
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Posting for 2nd tweet.

 

File this under: "We already know that CNN spreads disease."

 

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Edited by Hedge
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Note that this has not been non-peer reviewed (at least as of posting), but this is sobering.

 

 

We shall see how this prediction stacks up to actuals in a few weeks. Also, note that "infections" does not correlate with diagnosed cases due to incubation periods.

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I'm probably only one of a handful of posters here who actually have been to the city of Wuhan.

I was on a Viking cruise up the Yangtze River. They flew us from Shanghai to Wuhan which is where the ship was docked.

We toured the city a bit, saw a large museum complex (ancient pottery and brass) and heard their famous bell choir play.

We then had to make an unscheduled stop in another city up the river (I think it was Yichang). They told us at dinner that we HAD to put at least one piece of luggage outside our cabin by 11PM that night.They said you could put any dirty clothes inside, it wasn't important to have all your belongings in there. They said the luggage would be returned the next morning before we left the city.

The reason for this was:

The Chinese Communist Party began their National Convention in Beijing and ALL luggage entering China HAD to be X-Rayed.

Wuhan's airport did not have an X-Ray machine.

 

We didn't see the luggage being taken away, but the next morning lots of folks were watching as the bearers climbed down and then up the 100 or so steps from the dock to the street carrying at least two suitcases on poles across the back of their necks.

 

True story.

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Lots of rumors persist, including from China health care workers, that the real number of known infections is closer ~100,000.

 

Canada and Australia are now reporting cases. And a 3rd one is now in the US, in Orange County, CA.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Hedge
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It's important to understand that mis/disinfo doesn't just come from the Chinese government.  I'm willing to bet that most of the pictures we are seeing of sick/dead people in China are not from this outbreak.

 

There's a lot of uncertainty thanks to the Chinese constantly lying, but public health interventions most certainly make infection reproduction numbers go down - even in 3rd world conditions.  I've seen R numbers for this virus anywhere from 2.5 to 3.8.  By comparison, measles is anywhere from 12 to 18.

 

Is it bad?  Yeah - but it's mostly bad because the Chinese were more concerned about saving face than they were saving lives.  Luckily we don't have the same kinds of issues with our government that the Chinese have.

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3 minutes ago, LeviF91 said:

Is it bad?  Yeah - but it's mostly bad because the Chinese were more concerned about saving face than they were saving lives.  Luckily we don't have the same kinds of issues with our government that the Chinese have.

 

I don't know your views well enough to know if the bolded above was sincere or ironic. 

 

I think we do now have a government that is very much less truthful than past administrations.  They are terribly dishonest, when it benefits them.  Recall the Alabama hurricane?  That was administration efforts to lie to the public in order to save face.  This administration is not above being dishonest.  Not the least bit.

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