Wawrow article: "The Buffalo Bills are 5-1, but are they really that good?"

[vorpma]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

I have never been a fan of the whole "what if" concept. (1) As you say, if one play changes, then the complexion of the game changes, at least for that moment, and maybe more. (2) Where doe s it end? You could literally find plays throughout every game that could affect the outcome. One could say the Bills were lucky that the Jets kicker missed an extra point and a field goal. One could also say the Jets were very fortunate to even be in that game in the first half when Buffalo was moving the ball up and down the field, only to keep turning it over. 

My man!

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Anyone who thinks the Bills are world beaters isn't watching.   They haven't been consistently solid in any phase of the game.   Defense has been the best. 

 

What the Bills are doing is building.   They're building a team that I expect will win big in 2020 and 2021.   What McDermott is doing is teaching, and the players are learning.  They learn more each week, and McD expects them to retain what they learn.  

 

Everyone talks about how bad Allen was in the first half against the Dolphins.   I don't think the problem was that he was bad; the problem was that the Dolphins had the benefit of film study of the Bengals, Pats and Titans games.   They figured out where they could attack the Bills defense and how to stop the Bills' staple offensive plays.   So when went back to pass in the first half, he wasn't seeing what he expected.  When Fitz went back to pass, he knew what he was getting, and his offensive line had good schemes to protect him against a line of average pass rushers who get little help from the blitz.  

 

The first object is to win the game, and they did.  The second object is for the coaches to learn and grow, so that the offense and defense adjust going forward.  What worked for the Dolphins won't work so well in the future, and Allen will know better how to handle it.  

 

It's possible the team will continue to grow fast enough that they'll win 12 games this year, but I don't think so.  I think they will be like a lot of teams in the first year of a string of seasons in the playoffs.  They'll be a wild card team, maybe a tough out, but they won't be consistently good enough across the board to go deep into the playoffs.  Next season, they will add another layer of talent and depth, so the starting lineups will be stronger and there will be less likelihood of suffering when a Milano goes down.  .  

Great post!

[BananaB]

Part of the reason why 4 of 6 teams have 2 or less wins is because the Bills beat them. 

[K-9]

1 hour ago, the skycap said:

Wawrow should ask the same question of the Patriots!! 

I get your larger point, but given that the Patriots*** have been proving for nearly two decades that they are, indeed, really that good, it’s a far sillier question when asked of them. JW would lose some credibility as a serious journalist by asking it. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

This is a great point.  Not just about Ryan Fitzpatrick, but Miami in general.

Most Bills fans are disappointed this week, because the team failed to "blow-out" the lowly Dolphins.

 

What they fail to notice, is that Miami was fired-up and actually played VERY well on Sunday.  Especially their offense.

Playing like he did this week, Fitzpatrick would have lit-up most defenses around the league.  He was getting rid of the ball extremely quick, squeezing the ball into tight windows, and his receivers were making contested catches.

 

If Miami played like this every week, they would NOT be sitting at 0-6.

As it stands, we took their absolute best shot - and still won by double-digits.

 

Right on.  I watched some footage of prev. MIA games and from what I saw, the Dolphins didn't have a WR who could catch a cold until the 4Q of the Washington game when they came within 1 play of a comeback win.  Well Hey y'all Watch This!

 

That's the Fitzmagic Dust aspect and the reason a guy with a noodle for an arm and a repetitive habit of throwing the INT at the worst time has stuck in the league 15 years.  When he's "On" he's one of those guys who can really lift and inspire his teammates and Yeah, he can Ball.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Nobody knows how good this team really is.  I think they consistently play to the level of their competition.  I don't know if that can be improved with experience, coaching, consistently winning, or a bad loss.  They played the Patriots tougher than any other team and if Allen isn't hurt, he either tosses two more ugly picks or wins the game in the 4th quarter(hell maybe he does both).  

They have 4 games that will decide how good they truly are - Eagles, Browns, Cowboys, and Ravens.  Win three of those four and you know this team is legit.  Lose three or more and you know the 5-1start was mostly a mirage and due to bad teams.  

The Patriots game could decide the division and will likely be flexed regardless.  They play too tight and amped up against the Patriots and I just don't see this team being able to compete against Belichick in December with the division on the line.  But wining the division at Foxborough would be the same as the sacking of Rome.  History of the NFL would change at that moment.  

[RaoulDuke79]

I dont recall anyone cutting us any slack when we played tough schedules,  so I'm sure as heck not going to apologize or fret over having a soft schedule. You are what your record says you are. 

Edited October 22, 2019 by RaoulDuke79

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Everyone talks about how bad Allen was in the first half against the Dolphins.   I don't think the problem was that he was bad; the problem was that the Dolphins had the benefit of film study of the Bengals, Pats and Titans games.   They figured out where they could attack the Bills defense and how to stop the Bills' staple offensive plays.   So when went back to pass in the first half, he wasn't seeing what he expected. 

 

Every team has film study every week on their opponents, and the effects are just incremental most of the time.  We get film study on them.  I don't think there was any Magic Genius about Week 7 film study over Week 5.

 

The more specific issues are that Flores and his OC and DC all were Pats coaches and overlapped with Daboll.  They know how he thinks.  In particular, their OC was the Pats WR coach and probably spent a good bit of time drawing plays up and discussing plays with Daboll.  So they really had the inside line on how the Bills offense is constructed and what they are trying to do.  It's not just looking at pictures of the exteriors of the buildings; they understand the structural engineering.  Second issue, Josh Allen had a very hard time reading the coverages the Pats were using on D and we failed (for whatever reason) to pick up some blitz looks both Week 4 and Week 5.  Flores is more than able to duplicate those defensive looks because again, they are structurally related to the D concepts he's trying to use.  He not only understands the structural engineering, he's got some of the beams in place.

 

But now that it's on film that not just the Pats did it, but Miami also, we better fix it damn quick because like the saying goes, once you put something on film your opponents will exploit it until you show that you have and stop them, or exploit what they do in turn.

 

 

[Punching Bag]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Anyone who thinks the Bills are world beaters isn't watching.   They haven't been consistently solid in any phase of the game.   Defense has been the best. 

 

What the Bills are doing is building.   They're building a team that I expect will win big in 2020 and 2021.   What McDermott is doing is teaching, and the players are learning.  They learn more each week, and McD expects them to retain what they learn.  

 

Everyone talks about how bad Allen was in the first half against the Dolphins.   I don't think the problem was that he was bad; the problem was that the Dolphins had the benefit of film study of the Bengals, Pats and Titans games.   They figured out where they could attack the Bills defense and how to stop the Bills' staple offensive plays.   So when went back to pass in the first half, he wasn't seeing what he expected.  When Fitz went back to pass, he knew what he was getting, and his offensive line had good schemes to protect him against a line of average pass rushers who get little help from the blitz.  

 

The first object is to win the game, and they did.  The second object is for the coaches to learn and grow, so that the offense and defense adjust going forward.  What worked for the Dolphins won't work so well in the future, and Allen will know better how to handle it.  

 

It's possible the team will continue to grow fast enough that they'll win 12 games this year, but I don't think so.  I think they will be like a lot of teams in the first year of a string of seasons in the playoffs.  They'll be a wild card team, maybe a tough out, but they won't be consistently good enough across the board to go deep into the playoffs.  Next season, they will add another layer of talent and depth, so the starting lineups will be stronger and there will be less likelihood of suffering when a Milano goes down.  .  

 

This is saying that the Bills coaching staff needs to get better at scouting including self-scouting.  

[Mat68]

Strange time as a Bill's fan.  Colin Cowherd is more optimistic about the Bill's, the coaching staff, and Allen, than a pretty loud group of Bill's fans. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, the skycap said:

Wawrow should ask the same question of the Patriots!! 

 

Since he's covering the Bills and the Patriots are defending SB champions with a decade of every-year playoffs....that would be wierd.

 

29 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

That article is red meat for the negatives.

 

I don't know what "the negatives" means, but criticism and a negative viewpoint are allowed especially with some data or reasoning behind them.

When they rise to the level of campaign or crusade or are just mindless "he sucks!" babbling, then No.

[17years&waiting]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Anyone who thinks the Bills are world beaters isn't watching.   They haven't been consistently solid in any phase of the game.   Defense has been the best. 

 

What the Bills are doing is building.   They're building a team that I expect will win big in 2020 and 2021.   What McDermott is doing is teaching, and the players are learning.  They learn more each week, and McD expects them to retain what they learn.  

 

Everyone talks about how bad Allen was in the first half against the Dolphins.   I don't think the problem was that he was bad; the problem was that the Dolphins had the benefit of film study of the Bengals, Pats and Titans games.   They figured out where they could attack the Bills defense and how to stop the Bills' staple offensive plays.   So when went back to pass in the first half, he wasn't seeing what he expected.  When Fitz went back to pass, he knew what he was getting, and his offensive line had good schemes to protect him against a line of average pass rushers who get little help from the blitz.  

 

The first object is to win the game, and they did.  The second object is for the coaches to learn and grow, so that the offense and defense adjust going forward.  What worked for the Dolphins won't work so well in the future, and Allen will know better how to handle it.  

 

It's possible the team will continue to grow fast enough that they'll win 12 games this year, but I don't think so.  I think they will be like a lot of teams in the first year of a string of seasons in the playoffs.  They'll be a wild card team, maybe a tough out, but they won't be consistently good enough across the board to go deep into the playoffs.  Next season, they will add another layer of talent and depth, so the starting lineups will be stronger and there will be less likelihood of suffering when a Milano goes down.  .  

 

This is probably the biggest piece of this season: how does Allen evolve as the league evolves towards his tendencies.  Look at the Brady and Peyton's of the league: when defenses threw new wrinkles to slow them down, they evolved; they improved.  They kept doing this until there was nothing they hadn't seen before and couldn't quickly figure out on the field.  Same goes for Brees and Rodgers and all the other great QB's of the past 10-15 years.

 

On the other side, look at the Goff's and Trubisky's of the league.  Innovative coaches got them playing well, but now, defenses are adjusting and taking away what they know how to do.  I'm not sure they are adjusting for the next, better phase of their respective careers.

 

Over the past month, the scheme seems to be throwing a ton of blitzers at Allen (I don't watch the All 22's or anything like that, so I could be wrong).  It seemed like there were multiple instances where there were jailbreak blitzes, or the defense would send someone off the corner or edge that either Allen or Morse didn't know and adjust for.  And it seemed like Allen really struggled with those plays.  However, there was one play in the Dolphins game that stood out: it was in the 2nd half, maybe a 3rd and 7, and the Dolphins blitzed.  Earlier in the game, it forced bad plays or throw aways.  However, on this play, Allen stood tall and quickly hit Beasley, who got the first down.  It was 1 play.  It wasn't anything spectacular, but Allen didn't bail from the pocket, didn't make a bad read.  He stood in the pocket, found his hot route and picked up the first down.  It shows progress for Allen.  I hope I'm not making too much of 1 play,  but it was the best play I thought he made all day.  

 

Now keep doing it.

[BigDingus]

This article is spot-on. It touches on everything any non-biased observer would be concerned about, and it's all entirely justified.

This isn't "hating" on the Bills, nor is it unfounded pessimism. We could just as easily be 1-5 as 5-1 or even 6-0. 

If these struggles and close wins came against even mid-tier quality opponents, I think people would feel far more confident in this team. But at similar points in the year, I was more confident in the 2011 Bills than I have been with this team.

 

In 2011, we started off 5-2 with wins against the 7-9 Chiefs, 8-8 Raiders, 13-3 Patriots, 8-8 Eagles, and 5-11 Redskins, and only losing by 3 to the 9-7 Bengals (in Cincy) and losing by only 3 to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Giants (again on the road). 

Not the most insane schedule, but definitely a true test, and all games we were competitive in. And the ways in which we beat lesser teams like the Chiefs (winning 41 to 7) and the Redskins (23 to 0 where we had 9 sacks) made you look ahead & think the sky is the limit.

But just remember how bad the Dolphins have been this year...letting opponents put up 440 yards on average, 36 points on average and only putting up an average of 8.4 points a game themselves. And look how we performed...at home....after a BYE! And if not for that onside kick TD, the score would be 24-21 which reflects how the game actually played out a lot more accurately.

And when 2 of our wins can be attributed to missed kickers, you could drop that record to 3-3. Point being, HOW we win does matter when there are still 10 games left in the season. 

[IDBillzFan]

I think JW is probably the best Bills beat reporter, period. I find this article interesting in that he's analyzing the team, and I simply don't recall him doing this very often. He generally reports on games, but his feature stuff tends to be more often tied to interviews, players, trends, etc.

 

On the other hand, regardless of how much I like him as a journalist, the missed field goals bit is just a bad look. He should know that if you're going to approach analysis of a team and its games based on things that might have happened if certain other things DID happen, you open yourself up for a lot of "Well, if Yeldon catches the pass from Brown vs. NE*," or "If Hauska doesn't miss the FG against NE*",etc.

 

And that's a waste of time.

[BigDingus]

1 hour ago, 17years&waiting said:

Over the past month, the scheme seems to be throwing a ton of blitzers at Allen (I don't watch the All 22's or anything like that, so I could be wrong).  It seemed like there were multiple instances where there were jailbreak blitzes, or the defense would send someone off the corner or edge that either Allen or Morse didn't know and adjust for.  And it seemed like Allen really struggled with those plays. 

 

This has been going on all year, and it's really frustrating to see that either the coaching staff or Allen himself haven't figured out how to deal with this.

He should be able to recognize the incoming pressure when literally everyone is in the box, everyone right over the line ready to all out blitz, and make proper adjustments at the line. At the very least, he should know he doesn't have 3+ seconds to throw the ball, and realize "if they're all coming at me, there will be nobody covering these guys over here." 

For some reason though, he always snaps the ball and drops back like he's going to have all the time in the world, doesn't get rid of the ball, and takes the sack. It'll continue to happen every game until he can show teams that he can identify the open man quickly or at least throw the ball away.

[njbuff]

3 minutes ago, IDBillzFan said:

I think JW is probably the best Bills beat reporter, period. I find this article interesting in that he's analyzing the team, and I simply don't recall him doing this very often. He generally reports on games, but his feature stuff tends to be more often tied to interviews, players, trends, etc.

 

On the other hand, regardless of how much I like him as a journalist, the missed field goals bit is just a bad look. He should know that if you're going to approach analysis of a team and its games based on things that might have happened if certain other things DID happen, you open yourself up for a lot of "Well, if Yeldon catches the pass from Brown vs. NE*," or "If Hauska doesn't miss the FG against NE*",etc.

 

And that's a waste of time.

 

Everything always needs to be micro-analyzed for some reason.

 

The Bills are 5-1 and are being disrespected by most, as evidenced by being a SLIGHT favorite at home against a severely flawed sub .500 team.

 

This would bother me as a player in that Buffalo locker room and I hope they use this as motivation to post their first waxing of an opponent this season.

[IDBillzFan]

1 minute ago, BigDingus said:

And if not for that onside kick TD, the score would be 24-21 which reflects how the game actually played out a lot more accurately.

 

This is kind of what I'm talking about. "If not for the onside kick..." would be like saying "If Knox caught the pass from Allen..."

 

For every "If this didn't happen, the Bills would have lost," you can come up with an equally dishonest "If this didn't happen, the Bills would have won by more than 10."

 

 

1 minute ago, njbuff said:

 

Everything always needs to be micro-analyzed for some reason.

 

There's nothing wrong with micro-analyzing among fans to discuss what could have been or should have been. I get that. How often do you think Oiler fans talk about what "should have been called" during the comeback game?

 

But using those hypotheticals to support your position on the quality of the team?  "The team isn't as good as you think because these things that usually happen didn't happen" is just lazy.

 

But I'm a homer. So my take carries not water.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

10 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

And when 2 of our wins can be attributed to missed kickers, you could drop that record to 3-3. Point being, HOW we win does matter when there are still 10 games left in the season. 

why would you even look at it that way? would you rather they be 3-3? it boggles my mind why some want to take a W and turn in to their own negative context, which I'm sure must only satisfy themselves?

 

how we win matters, okay. you're right, after the clock hits zero, regardless of whether it was an offensive td, defensive or yes, even a special teams td, all that matters is you out scored the opponent. by one point or forty, it's a W.

 

3-3

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, IDBillzFan said:

I think JW is probably the best Bills beat reporter, period. I find this article interesting in that he's analyzing the team, and I simply don't recall him doing this very often. He generally reports on games, but his feature stuff tends to be more often tied to interviews, players, trends, etc.

 

On the other hand, regardless of how much I like him as a journalist, the missed field goals bit is just a bad look. He should know that if you're going to approach analysis of a team and its games based on things that might have happened if certain other things DID happen, you open yourself up for a lot of "Well, if Yeldon catches the pass from Brown vs. NE*," or "If Hauska doesn't miss the FG against NE*",etc.

 

And that's a waste of time.

 

Exactly

[BigDingus]

1 minute ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

This is kind of what I'm talking about. "If not for the onside kick..." would be like saying "If Knox caught the pass from Allen..."

 

For every "If this didn't happen, the Bills would have lost," you can come up with an equally dishonest "If this didn't happen, the Bills would have won by more than 10."

 

 

 

No, not all "if this didn't happens" are created equal.

There was 1:38 left in the 4th quarter with the score 24-21. That was the actual game up until that point. There'd be no reason to go for an onside kick unless that was their only option. And since 90%+ of onside kicks just result with the receiving team falling on the ball, that'd be indicative of what the game through 58:28 seconds looked like. 
 

It's not like you can attribute that last TD to the offense or anything, and it's not something the Dolphins defense did wrong that resulted in the Bills proving how much better they are. An onside kick with 1:38 left in a game only means "last desperate attempt to have a shot at winning after all other options have been exhausted."

 

Tell me, how often an onside kick returned for a TD with a minute plus left in the game has been the deciding factor of any game in history. If the receiving team had fallen on it, what changes? We would've run out the clock, won the game anyway. The points are irrelevant barring the most unlikely, ridiculous possibilities like fumbling a snap while trying to kneel...which again, I haven't seen in ages.

And a kicker missing all 4 kicks, and another missing the only 2 kicks he was asked to make all game ARE important to mention. They're the kind of terrible performances that get kickers benched or fired. Missing a kick here & there is one thing. Missing everything, even the "easy" ones when your ONLY JOB is to do that very thing, IS notable. 

Those matter because they are NOT INDICATIVE of how the Bills played, rather how the opponent hurt themselves. Yes, it happens to other teams too, and that's why it gets brought up when it happens to those other teams. It matters, whether you want to buy it or not.

 

How many times have Bills fans & other analysts said "if only Norwood made that FG?" Because he didn't, the 90's Bills are remembered in a different light than they otherwise would've been. And that was only one kick, not ALL the kicks. 

[Punching Bag]

21 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

And when 2 of our wins can be attributed to missed kickers, you could drop that record to 3-3. Point being, HOW we win does matter when there are still 10 games left in the season. 

 

You are saying if the Bills tripped over their Big Dingus then they would be 3-3. 

 

In that case just Linda Bobbitt and cut the rotten thing off!

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

4 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

No, not all "if this didn't happens" are created equal.

There was 1:38 left in the 4th quarter with the score 24-21. That was the actual game up until that point. There'd be no reason to go for an onside kick unless that was their only option. And since 90%+ of onside kicks just result with the receiving team falling on the ball, that'd be indicative of what the game through 58:28 seconds looked like. 
 

It's not like you can attribute that last TD to the offense or anything, and it's not something the Dolphins defense did wrong that resulted in the Bills proving how much better they are. An onside kick with 1:38 left in a game only means "last desperate attempt to have a shot at winning after all other options have been exhausted."

 

Tell me, how often an onside kick returned for a TD with a minute plus left in the game has been the deciding factor of any game in history. If the receiving team had fallen on it, what changes? We would've run out the clock, won the game anyway. The points are irrelevant barring the most unlikely, ridiculous possibilities like fumbling a snap while trying to kneel...which again, I haven't seen in ages.

And a kicker missing all 4 kicks, and another missing the only 2 kicks he was asked to make all game ARE important to mention. They're the kind of terrible performances that get kickers benched or fired. Missing a kick here & there is one thing. Missing everything, even the "easy" ones when your ONLY JOB is to do that very thing, IS notable. 

Those matter because they are NOT INDICATIVE of how the Bills played, rather how the opponent hurt themselves. Yes, it happens to other teams too, and that's why it gets brought up when it happens to those other teams. It matters, whether you want to buy it or not.

 

How many times have Bills fans & other analysts said "if only Norwood made that FG?" Because he didn't, the 90's Bills are remembered in a different light than they otherwise would've been. And that was only one kick, not ALL the kicks. 

do you enjoy this? making something that it is not?

 

because whether you do or not, it happened.

Edited October 23, 2019 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

And when 2 of our wins can be attributed to missed kickers, you could drop that record to 3-3. Point being, HOW we win does matter when there are still 10 games left in the season.

 

This is exactly the point I object to in Wawrow's article, and just as much here.  There will always be plays in a game that are miscues - on our side, as well as on the opponent's side.

 

You can't do that unless said missed FG is the very last play of the game (they weren't).  When one play in the game is different, it's a different game.  Coaches coach differently from then on, players play with greater or lesser intensity, different plays get called.

 

As I said in the OP, as well proclaim that if it weren't for a single play miscue - a blocked punt returned for a 7 point TD, we beat the Pats.  Why not?  We lost by 6, that would be 7 points.  Do you think that would be a reasonable "take"?   I think most people wouldn't.

[wiseman3]

I quite honestly don't give a flying f about what the strength of schedule and analytics say...we're 5-1... enjoy it. It feels like people would rather be 3-3 but have the metrics say that we're a solid team. I dont get it

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is exactly the point I object to in Wawrow's article, and just as much here.  There will always be plays in a game that are miscues - on our side, as well as on the opponent's side.

 

You can't do that unless said missed FG is the very last play of the game (they weren't).  When one play in the game is different, it's a different game.  Coaches coach differently from then on, players play with greater or lesser intensity, different plays get called.

 

As I said in the OP, as well proclaim that if it weren't for a single play miscue - a blocked punt returned for a 7 point TD, we beat the Pats.  Why not?  We lost by 6, that would be 7 points.  Do you think that would be a reasonable "take"?   I think most people wouldn't.

And why are we ccompletely ignoring the kicking game? Last time I checked, kickers are part of the team. Saying we're not good because other teams have a bad kicker is crazy. Tough crap for them, thankfully our TEAM has a good kicker. 

[Rocket94]

4 hours ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

as long as they keep racking up the W's, I couldn't care less how they do it. they have yet to be blown out and it seems they were blown out in a couple games by week seven in the past.

 

just win, baby!!

Yes...just win and hopefully everything else will fall in to place. Some expected the Bills to implode after the Patriots game...well it didn't happen!

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

The Patriots have proven that they can win and make the playoffs the Bills have not.

 

When you have a 1st half showing like that against the dolphins, media and fans will question if you are for real or not. Plus you add into it that the Bills had a bye week to prepare for the fish and it looks bad.

 

Allen has been up and down this year and is still developing but I still believe you can’t teach accuracy.

 

 

 

[Happy]

5 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

The Patriots have proven that they can win and make the playoffs the Bills have not.

 

When you have a 1st half showing like that against the dolphins, media and fans will question if you are for real or not. Plus you add into it that the Bills had a bye week to prepare for the fish and it looks bad.

 

Allen has been up and down this year and is still developing but I still believe you can’t teach accuracy.

 

 

 

 

I agree with this and it is accurately stated.  The Patriots are getting the benefit of the doubt, the Bills are not strictly for recent history, alone.  I still think the Pats defense is a little overrated...the talk of among greatest of all time comparisons are lunacy, but I digress.

 

The bolded I take some issue with.  I'm no QB issue, but I think you can teach accuracy, which a lot of tends to be technique. 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 hours ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

why would you even look at it that way? would you rather they be 3-3? it boggles my mind why some want to take a W and turn in to their own negative context, which I'm sure must only satisfy themselves?

 

how we win matters, okay. you're right, after the clock hits zero, regardless of whether it was an offensive td, defensive or yes, even a special teams td, all that matters is you out scored the opponent. by one point or forty, it's a W.

 

"You are what your record says you are".  This is the classic "glass half full/glass half empty" conundrum.

 

Every football game which is not a blowout stinker hinges on a handful of plays.  After the game, we can look at that handful and say "if those rolled differently, woulda been a W" or "if those rolled differently, woulda been a loss".  Sometimes you da windshield, and sometimes you da bug.

 

It's understandable that Buffalo Bills fans who have learnt by hard experience not to get their hopes up too high from early season success, tend to look for a handful of plays that could have rolled differently and turned it into a L but @IDBillzFan has it exactly right - one can look at the same games and pull out a handful of missed opportunities that would have led to a score by the Bills. 

 

And that's even without the known principle all we sports parents teach our kids that if one play is different, the course of the game will change for better or worse.

 

Hypotheticals are fruitless except for the team analyzing film the next week, where pointing out the impact of a missed read or a "gotta catch that" pass may bear fruit.

 

It is a bit disappointing to see a high quality sports journalist like @john wawrow bringing up the "2 missed field goals from a loss" hypothetical, but to do him justice it's only one line in an article and not the focus.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

IMO  John W has always been fair in praise and criticism  

 

We are all loving the 5-1 (well most of us are) but that lingering ....  we've been here before thoughts keep creeping in 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

The Patriots have proven that they can win and make the playoffs the Bills have not.

 

When you have a 1st half showing like that against the dolphins, media and fans will question if you are for real or not. Plus you add into it that the Bills had a bye week to prepare for the fish and it looks bad.

 

Allen has been up and down this year and is still developing but I still believe you can’t teach accuracy.

 

Allen seems to be consistently making passes this year that he consistently missed on last year or just didn't take last year.  So I don't know.  It may depend upon a bunch of factors - how much previous coaching has a guy had?  How "set" in his muscle memory is his wrong habit?  And how hard/consistently does he work at it?   In a game, there are defensive factors like was there a deflection, even a small one?  Could the QB follow through cleanly, or was there defender contact?   [Assessing these is influenced by pre-conception - there is an Allen throws early in the Patriots game where, for example, the Cover1 guys said it was a bad throw and tagged Allen's footwork.  But Allen completes throws in later weeks with similar imperfect footwork, and when I look at that play carefully I'm pretty sure the defender got a leetle piece of it.  And that Wentz to Agolor throw people are critiquing Agolor for not hauling in, I'm pretty sure went long because Wentz had defender contact]

 

Then there's the fact that a lot of factors go into a pass completion beyond the accuracy of the throw (meaning, does the ball go where the QB intends it to?).  Are the WR and QB on the same page about the coverage and the route the WR is supposed to run?  Was the timing "on" - was the QB rushed or feeling pressure and did he throw too soon?  Was the QB uncertain about his read of the D and did he hesitate?

 

Most people who repeat something do improve, so timing and reads are known to improve as a QB matures, as does getting on the same page about coverage and routes after the skill players get more time in the same system.

[Wayne Arnold]

18 hours ago, the skycap said:

Wawrow should ask the same question of the Patriots!! 

 

Why? They’re the defending Super Bowl champions and are undefeated.

[ColoradoBills]

The Buffalo Bills are 5-1 and that makes me happy.

For all those that want to analyze how and why they are at that record I say go for it.

 

Personally for me I don't care.  Those games are over and the team seems dynamic enough that

the players and coaching staff could take this team to a point that by the end of the season it could be

quite different from the one that started the season.

 

I didn't make a prediction of their record to start the season and I don't know what their record will be to end the season.

I'm enjoying the ride and looking forward to the Eagles coming to town and the guys giving a good effort.

 

I'm sure many think my quaint take on all of this is foolish or might believe I know less about football than others

with more vociferous opinions and that's fine with me.  I am enjoying these last couple of seasons more than I have in years.

Here's to another win on Sunday!

 

ps.  It's funny how the same discussions are being made about the 8-1-1 Buffalo Sabres.  I'm happy with them too.

[IDBillzFan]

14 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

No, not all "if this didn't happens" are created equal.

 

They ARE all created equal because they are all based on false premises to make a point that could never, ever be proven because the event has passed and the results are the only results to come of the situation. Yes, one may be created to sound more far-fetched than the other, but again, they both start as false premises, which are essentially the false starts of logical discussion.

 

I don't mind fans saying things like "Man, if Yeldon only caught that pass..."

 

What I object to is "The team is not as good/as bad as it seems because if this happened/didn't happen, then the result would be different enough for me to justify my opinion."

 

That logic is a long, deep, never-ending hole.

[Rocket94]

13 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

The Buffalo Bills are 5-1 and that makes me happy.

For all those that want to analyze how and why they are at that record I say go for it.

 

Personally for me I don't care.  Those games are over and the team seems dynamic enough that

the players and coaching staff could take this team to a point that by the end of the season it could be

quite different from the one that started the season.

 

I didn't make a prediction of their record to start the season and I don't know what their record will be to end the season.

I'm enjoying the ride and looking forward to the Eagles coming to town and the guys giving a good effort.

 

I'm sure many think my quaint take on all of this is foolish or might believe I know less about football than others

with more vociferous opinions and that's fine with me.  I am enjoying these last couple of seasons more than I have in years.

Here's to another win on Sunday!

 

ps.  It's funny how the same discussions are being made about the 8-1-1 Buffalo Sabres.  I'm happy with them too.

Yes!...good stuff. I too just want to enjoy the ride without being analytical of the Bills, but sometimes (ok, the entire season so far) they leave me no choice because they are difficult to diagnose as a team. That feeling is returning where I expect them to win every week despite whatever mess they get in to. Just go Bills...we understand you guys are growing and finding out a lot about yourselves!

Edited October 24, 2019 by Rocket94

[ColoradoBills]

7 minutes ago, Rocket94 said:

Yes!...good stuff. I too just want to enjoy the ride without being analytical of the Bills, but sometimes (ok, the entire season so far) they leave me no choice because they are a difficult to diagnose as a team. That feeling is returning where I expect them to win every week despite whatever mess they get in to. Just go Bills...we understand you guys are growing and finding out a lot about yourselves!

 

Reading the bolded made me laugh Rocket!

 

When the ball is kicked off the 2 teams are in a fight.  Statistics and analysis takes a back seat while the guys play the game.

I'm really trying to appreciate that fact.

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

"You are what your record says you are".  This is the classic "glass half full/glass half empty" conundrum.

 

Every football game which is not a blowout stinker hinges on a handful of plays.  After the game, we can look at that handful and say "if those rolled differently, woulda been a W" or "if those rolled differently, woulda been a loss".  Sometimes you da windshield, and sometimes you da bug.

 

It's understandable that Buffalo Bills fans who have learnt by hard experience not to get their hopes up too high from early season success, tend to look for a handful of plays that could have rolled differently and turned it into a L but @IDBillzFan has it exactly right - one can look at the same games and pull out a handful of missed opportunities that would have led to a score by the Bills. 

 

And that's even without the known principle all we sports parents teach our kids that if one play is different, the course of the game will change for better or worse.

 

Hypotheticals are fruitless except for the team analyzing film the next week, where pointing out the impact of a missed read or a "gotta catch that" pass may bear fruit.

 

It is a bit disappointing to see a high quality sports journalist like @john wawrow bringing up the "2 missed field goals from a loss" hypothetical, but to do him justice it's only one line in an article and not the focus.

That’s the point though, isn’t it? One or two plays made the difference in beating bad teams. When you talk about “good” teams, do they only win games against bad opponents  because of one or two plays? We’re the Pats a missed FG away from losing to the Jets?

 

No, they weren’t.

[teef]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

That’s the point though, isn’t it? One or two plays made the difference in beating bad teams. When you talk about “good” teams, do they only win games against bad opponents  because of one or two plays? We’re the Pats a missed FG away from losing to the Jets?

 

No, they weren’t.

sure.  it happens.  

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, teef said:

sure.  it happens.  

Well, no. It happens sometimes. Sometimes the Pats win an ugly game by the skin of their teeth against the Dolphins or Jets. But not multiple games or every game.

 

And this year, the Pats are BLOWING teams out. If you look at the margin of victory of them compared to ours, we are clearly not as good. And that’s because most of our wins are by the skin of our teeth. And that’s still a positive. The difference between a playoff team and a 6-10 team is winning the close ones. But we aren’t “THAT GOOD.”

[teef]

Just now, FireChans said:

Well, no. It happens sometimes. Sometimes the Pats win an ugly game by the skin of their teeth against the Dolphins or Jets. But not multiple games or every game.

 

And this year, the Pats are BLOWING teams out. If you look at the margin of victory of them compared to ours, we are clearly not as good. And that’s because most of our wins are by the skin of our teeth. And that’s still a positive. The difference between a playoff team and a 6-10 team is winning the close ones. But we aren’t “THAT GOOD.”

oh no.  the bills are a team learning how to win, and that's ok.  the pats have been doing what the pats have been doing for so long, it's all second nature to them.  it's ok for the bills not to be world beaters at this point.  if anything they're exceeding expectations so far.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 minutes ago, FireChans said:

That’s the point though, isn’t it? One or two plays made the difference in beating bad teams. When you talk about “good” teams, do they only win games against bad opponents  because of one or two plays? We’re the Pats a missed FG away from losing to the Jets?

 

No, they weren’t.

 

What part of the qualifier "every football game that is not a blowout" did you miss?  Or are you assuming "good" teams put up 100% blowouts?

 

 

 

[FireChans]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What part of the qualifier "every football game that is not a blowout" did you miss?  Or are you assuming "good" teams put up 100% blowouts?

 

 

 

Good teams DO blow out bad opponents more often than not. That qualifier is quite literally the point.