Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[london_bills]

6 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

This can be said of EVERY NFL QB. 

 

Yesterday for example the 2019 MVP, Lamar Jackson, disappeared for the first quarter and most of the 2nd quarter.  He had less then 20 yards passing and had hit on only 25% of his passes.  He also lost a fumble.  His team was down 6 - 0 and the Ravens had not even sniffed the red zone.  Then Jackson caught fire late in the 2nd period.  Sound familiar? 

 

 

Do you know what I am referencing in regards to Allen? You know, when he looks intimidated? 

No cincy fan, I AM NOT JERRY SULLIVAN IN DISGUISE ???????

Edited December 24, 2019 by london_bills

[transplantbillsfan]

On 12/22/2019 at 2:08 PM, BringBackOrton said:

It was Patty Mahomes’ 28th start two weeks ago against the Pats.

 

A game that proves my point. Mahomes wasn't great in that game... threw an early interception, actually.

 

He was aided by a great defense that day... along with a couple great Special Teams plays.

 

The Chiefs Defense held the Pats offense to less than 300 yards (Bills D gave up 414) inclusing a few 3 & outs (Bills D held the Pats to only one), 4.5 yards per play (Bills D gave up 6.1), and a ridiculous 16% 3rd down conversion rate (Bills D allowed 50%). Plus the Chiefs got a big defensive play with a blocked FG.

 

Pretending that's a game Mahomes and the Chiefs win if the D doesn't show up like that with the way he played is a bit silly. Look at last year when the Chiefs lost to the Pats in Foxborough... Mahomes couldn't carry his team on that day.

[nedboy7]

Here is what the team thinks of Allen. People need to calm down. 
 

"I would say that every week, Josh's captain's 'C' just gets darker and darker -- as in bolder and bolder for people to see it," Dawkins said. "Josh continues to put the team on his back and you guys see it. [In the] fourth quarter, Josh does what Josh does. We love him and we're thankful for him. That's our quarterback and that's my 17."

"He's a dog, man. He's a gamer," Beasley said. "When the game's on the line, he's going to do everything he has to do and put his body on the line for his team. When you've got a guy like that, good things are going to happen."

 

[thebandit27]

6 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

Here is what the team thinks of Allen. People need to calm down. 
 

"I would say that every week, Josh's captain's 'C' just gets darker and darker -- as in bolder and bolder for people to see it," Dawkins said. "Josh continues to put the team on his back and you guys see it. [In the] fourth quarter, Josh does what Josh does. We love him and we're thankful for him. That's our quarterback and that's my 17."

"He's a dog, man. He's a gamer," Beasley said. "When the game's on the line, he's going to do everything he has to do and put his body on the line for his team. When you've got a guy like that, good things are going to happen."

 

 

Heard Micah Hyde on the radio earlier...and I quote: "the QB position in Buffalo is solved".

[transplantbillsfan]

On 12/22/2019 at 5:38 PM, GoBills808 said:

^someone explain to this guy how drops effect an offense that has a lower amount of attempts on average (like ours) than one like the Patriots who throw the ball at a high rate 

 

Patriots and Bills are tied for 2nd in total drops, but the Bills drop rate is 4.7% vs the Patriots drop rate of 3.7%.

 

If the Bills had the same drop rate as the Patriots, Allen would have 5 more completions, bringing his completion percentage up to 59.9%.

Edited December 24, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[thebandit27]

2 hours ago, K-Apps said:

I know it’s Cian, but man Allen’s footwork and pocket presence is downright horrific at times. I definitely think he needs to play a half on Sunday:

 

 

 

 

 

Ah yes. Incompetent.

 

That's definitely how I'd describe the guy with the highest passer rating among visiting QBs at Gillette this year.

 

He'd have more credibility if he'd dial down the hyperbole.

 

Missed throws are real, and they're going to be a topic of discussion until they become more of a rarity. But good grief, incompetence? That's an utter joke.

[transplantbillsfan]

20 hours ago, klos63 said:

why does an incompletion need to be compared to an interception- he missed 2 open receivers for touchdowns. He needs to make those passes. I'm not discounting the good things he does, as I mentioned in my post, but we likely win the game if he hits those 2, and those were very makeable passes.

 

Allen attributed his inaccuracy especially early in the game to nerves and he's come out and said the 1st Patriots game this year changed his perspective on a lot of things, particularly as it has to do with protecting the football.

 

Personally, I think some of these overthrows (both Knox misses in the EZ) might be connected to that mindset... one of slight overcompensation in order to not risk the pick.

[london_bills]

5 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

This misrepresents the situation and suggests that Allen routinely misses the easy throws.  He doesn't.  In fact this year he's been making almost all of the "easy throws".  Yes, he does miss an easy throw once & a while.  But to suggest it's a problem at this point is just not correct.

 

And please I hope you're not calling the two times he missed Knox as "easy throws".  Particularly the 2nd one in the end zone which was the type of play that looks open but can end in an INT if the pass isn't perfectly thrown.  Sure, they were make-able throws but NOT easy throws.

 

As for Allen being 13/26 indicating that he's missing "easy throws" I say BS.  He had to throw at least 3 balls away due to the pass rush; he had to throw a ball at the RB's feet on a screen because the Pats had blown it up;  and he threw a desperation hail Mary pass on the last play of the game.  That means Allen was 13/21 or hitting on 62% in his other passes.  And I didn't include a couple of deep shots and a dropped pass.

 

 

And please I hope you're not calling the two times he missed Knox as "easy throws".  Particularly the 2nd one in the end zone which was the type of play that looks open but can end in an INT if the pass isn't perfectly thrown.  Sure, they were make-able throws but NOT easy throws.

 

Just thinking about this part of your text and about this one play. Been listening to the billievers talk podcast, never tuned into that before.. His opinion of the knox endzone throw was that he was 'open, not just nfl open'. I disagree about you saying it looks open.  There's a short window there that is open but not for long, I remember thinking this when watching the game. You are saying at some times in your other posts than Allen lazers it into small windows which you find impressive, then acknowledge perhaps that it would of been nice him doing that here on a big play? If I'm not mistaken the announcer said something eluding to him being open on that play aswell. 

 

So it comes down to a subjective interpretation of what are 'easy' throws are, and what 'open' throws are. We can debate the terms but it's interesting to hear different opinions and about throws from allen who I've heard several people say can 'make all the throws.' 

 

Let's be honest here, this is also the kind of play that if he throws a pick its not the end of world, unfortunately he threw it high when knox couldn't get it. Look I know why he would err on the side of throwing it high but that's one as MCD says he 'would want back' I think. 

 

I'm not sure if the consensus is that through his development Allen would be expected to hit that throw in the future. 

 

Edited December 24, 2019 by london_bills

[transplantbillsfan]

Okay I'm going to piggyback off a post earlier from @HappyDays... now updated with the last 2 games

 

Allen has now played in 27 games:

 

Games 1-5: 60.4 passer rating

Games 6-10: 70.3 passer rating

Games 11-15: 80.8 passer rating

Games 16-20: 82.5 passer rating

Games 21-27: 88.8 passer rating 

[transplantbillsfan]

And in the last 7 games the Bills have played the #2, #5, #6, #7, #9, #11 and #28 pass defenses by traditional yards.

 

If you wanna go Defensive DVOA, we've played the #1, #4, #5, #13, #14, #23 and #32 pass defenses according to that metric.

[transplantbillsfan]

https://theathletic.com/1483422/2019/12/23/sandos-pick-six-are-the-seahawks-super-bowl-chances-doomed?source=shared-article

purely from an offensive EPA standpoint, the Bills outperformed all but two New England opponents this season (Baltimore, Houston).

[Zerovoltz]

6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

A game that proves my point. Mahomes wasn't great in that game... threw an early interception, actually.

 

He was aided by a great defense that day... along with a couple great Special Teams plays.

 

The Chiefs Defense held the Pats offense to less than 300 yards (Bills D gave up 414) inclusing a few 3 & outs (Bills D held the Pats to only one), 4.5 yards per play (Bills D gave up 6.1), and a ridiculous 16% 3rd down conversion rate (Bills D allowed 50%). Plus the Chiefs got a big defensive play with a blocked FG.

 

Pretending that's a game Mahomes and the Chiefs win if the D doesn't show up like that with the way he played is a bit silly. Look at last year when the Chiefs lost to the Pats in Foxborough... Mahomes couldn't carry his team on that day.

 

??? Mahomes put up 40 points in that game and NE had the ball last, kicking the go ahead field goal with no time left to win 43-40.....Mahomes didn't carry his team that day?  He was the only reason the team was in it.

Sitting here bored at work.......i was wondering how many games do you really need to see before you get a good idea of who the player is.

so what I did was started looking at the first 16 STARTS of a QB's career and then compared that to their career averages to see how much deviation there was from those first 16 games to what they produced/became over a career.

MOST of the guys I looked at...it was remarkable who little deviation there was from the averages of the 1st 16 games, to the averages for the whole of their careers. Joe Flacco for example...you can take his rookie year, and those stats don't deviate much at all from his career averages...he was who he was going to be after 16 games. There were a lot of guys I looked at who had similar showings.....Vinny Testaverde, Chad Pennington, Boomer Esiason, Don Majkowski....and many many more....just didn't deviate all that much from the guy they were in their first 16 games. 

Most guys tended to improve their Yards Per Game by 30-40 yards over their rookie years....the INT pct surprisingly, for many, went up overall, as they progressed. The Completion PCT didn't vary a whole lot....typically about a 3% incresase over the first 16 games compared to the whole of the career.

Some guys that were drastic outliers...Tom Brady...INT pct went way down, YPG went way up. Elways completion pct improved only modestly, but he was throwing for many more yards per game later on in his career. Alex Smith might be the biggest improvement from 16 games in, to whole career that I looked at....he was absolute trash 16 games in....if he hadn't been a 1/1, his career would have, and should have ended a very very long time ago....but his later career stats really pick way up....took him a long time to blossom into something decent I guess. Peyton Manning is another one whose first 16 wern't very good..but he improved accross the board substantially after that..His second set of 16 games was much closer to what his career averages would be, with the exception of completion PCT. Manning really got ALOT more accurate as time went on.

A few guys got progressively worse from their 16 starts onward.....Rick Mirer one of the better known QB's who came in hot, and then flamed out. People might mis remember Dan Marino a bit....his rookie year was 83, when he started 9 games and was quite good....it was 84 that he had his big record breaker year...so the first 5 games of that, along with is rookie year....Marino was mostly on his career averages when compared to his first 16 games overall. Matt Cassel was another one I looked at....his career trajectory...DOWNWARD....was interesting because his first 15 starts were with the Randy Moss patriots...the team that had gone undefeated in the regular season the year before. Cassel went 11-5 with that group and had decent numbers....never to be repeated. Bubby Brister actually was a little better to start than he ended up being over the course of his career....never posting good numbers..they just got worse over time.

While there are exceptions both where guys show out better than their first 16 and some show out worse....A TON of dudes....are who their first 16 starts say they are.

 

Just wanted to share this because while there are exceptions....starting to get into the territory of where Josh might be who Josh is gonna be.

Tags: None

[ganesh]

On 12/22/2019 at 11:56 PM, klos63 said:

Allen makes too many poor throws. It hurts the team, despite all the good things he does. Nothing wrong with pointing out those misses. There were 2 TD's we missed that most QB's would have made.

Then most QBs should be having 4-5 TDs every game...because that is the # of opportunities they get a crack at the Endzone.  

 

 

[klos63]

5 hours ago, ganesh said:

Then most QBs should be having 4-5 TDs every game...because that is the # of opportunities they get a crack at the Endzone.  

 

 

That's just a stupid reply. Allen missed an open receiver twice which would have resulted in touchdowns.  Nobody is saying he should pass for a TD every time they are near the red zone, but yes, they should hit open receivers in the end zone. That's not too much to expect.

[billsfan1959]

8 minutes ago, klos63 said:

That's just a stupid reply. Allen missed an open receiver twice which would have resulted in touchdowns.  Nobody is saying he should pass for a TD every time they are near the red zone, but yes, they should hit open receivers in the end zone. That's not too much to expect.

 

Yes, Allen missed an open receiver in the end zone. It happens. He also happens to have a 67% completion percentage inside the 10 and is the top rated passer in the NFL inside the 10 yard line. EVERY QB misses "open" receivers now and then in the end zone. Why Allen is held to a different standard is beyond me.

[Big Gun]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Okay I'm going to piggyback off a post earlier from @HappyDays... now updated with the last 2 games

 

Allen has now played in 27 games:

 

Games 1-5: 60.4 passer rating

Games 6-10: 70.3 passer rating

Games 11-15: 80.8 passer rating

Games 16-20: 82.5 passer rating

Games 21-27: 88.8 passer rating 

That is really impressive and shows Allens growth. Especially as your next post shows the defensive rankings get better so does Joshs ratings.

 

This kid is going to be a stud and we have him. Yay! 

Edited December 24, 2019 by pop gun

[thebandit27]

10 hours ago, london_bills said:

And please I hope you're not calling the two times he missed Knox as "easy throws".  Particularly the 2nd one in the end zone which was the type of play that looks open but can end in an INT if the pass isn't perfectly thrown.  Sure, they were make-able throws but NOT easy throws.

 

Just thinking about this part of your text and about this one play. Been listening to the billievers talk podcast, never tuned into that before.. His opinion of the knox endzone throw was that he was 'open, not just nfl open'. I disagree about you saying it looks open.  There's a short window there that is open but not for long, I remember thinking this when watching the game. You are saying at some times in your other posts than Allen lazers it into small windows which you find impressive, then acknowledge perhaps that it would of been nice him doing that here on a big play? If I'm not mistaken the announcer said something eluding to him being open on that play aswell. 

 

So it comes down to a subjective interpretation of what are 'easy' throws are, and what 'open' throws are. We can debate the terms but it's interesting to hear different opinions and about throws from allen who I've heard several people say can 'make all the throws.' 

 

Let's be honest here, this is also the kind of play that if he throws a pick its not the end of world, unfortunately he threw it high when knox couldn't get it. Look I know why he would err on the side of throwing it high but that's one as MCD says he 'would want back' I think. 

 

I'm not sure if the consensus is that through his development Allen would be expected to hit that throw in the future. 

 

 

On the end of the game throw to Knox, in real time I called it a tough throw over 2 defenders.

 

My wife asked why he threw it so far over the receivers head, and my cousin (who's not a Bills' fan) responded that it looked like the QB threw a fastball high to (a) prevent the defender from tipping it and (b) give the TE a chance to pivot and leap for it.

 

Just another perspective on it. Still think he could've lofted it in there IMO.

[CincyBillsFan]

11 hours ago, london_bills said:

 

So it comes down to a subjective interpretation of what are 'easy' throws are, and what 'open' throws are. We can debate the terms but it's interesting to hear different opinions and about throws from allen who I've heard several people say can 'make all the throws.' 

 

Let's be honest here, this is also the kind of play that if he throws a pick its not the end of world, unfortunately he threw it high when knox couldn't get it. Look I know why he would err on the side of throwing it high but that's one as MCD says he 'would want back' I think. 

 

I'm not sure if the consensus is that through his development Allen would be expected to hit that throw in the future. 

 

 

Fair point about what constitutes an easy throw as being subjective but I define an "easy" throw as one that's less then 15 yards; where the QB is under NO pressure and the guy is WIDE open.  The 2 throws to Knox IMO were makeable throws which is different than easy.

 

In the 2nd sentence above when you say throwing a pick wouldn't be the end of the world are you talking about the 1st or 2nd throw to Knox?  A pick on the throw to Knox in the end zone on SECOND DOWN would have been the end of the game.  So yea, it's better he overthrow and miss the receiver then under-throw a pick.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 hours ago, K-Apps said:

I know it’s Cian, but man Allen’s footwork and pocket presence is downright horrific at times. I definitely think he needs to play a half on Sunday:

 

 

 

 

 

I get it, but this is the kind of agenda-ridden "hot take" that polarizes us.  I mean, if Beasley is "roasting DBs and getting nothing for it", how did he wind up with 107 yd 7 reception day?  Srsly, Cian, did he throw them to himself?  

 

For perspective, that's Cole's 2nd 100+ yd game with Allen this season. 

 

He had several each year in his previous 7 seasons, right?  Nope.  Previous 7 season total, 2 100+ yd games, one in 2018 and one in 2015.

 

It would be fine to criticize, if Cian comes back and gives credit where due, like for the 2nd throw to Knox or the "sick burn" Brown reception.

[CincyBillsFan]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I get it, but this is the kind of agenda-ridden "hot take" that polarizes us.  I mean, if Beasley is "roasting DBs and getting nothing for it", how did he wind up with 107 yd 7 reception day?  Srsly, Cian, did he throw them to himself?  

 

For perspective, that's Cole's 2nd 100+ yd game with Allen this season. 

 

He had several each year in his previous 7 seasons, right?  Nope.  Previous 7 season total, 2 100+ yd games, one in 2018 and one in 2015.

 

It would be fine to criticize, if Cian comes back and gives credit where due, like for the 2nd throw to Knox or the "sick burn" Brown reception.

 

 

IMO lies by omission are the worst kinds of lies and a lot of Allen critics seem to leave a lot out when describing Allen's QB play.

 

To focus ONLY on the bad throws or missed reads is a form of lying plain & simple.  And these folks wonder why we respond to the lies like we do.

 

I'll say it ONE MORE time:  Allen must continue to improve his game; we won't know for another couple of years if he's our franchise guy; Allen has made great progress and some of his plays are amazing but other aspects of his game need improvement;  all indications are that he's going to develop into a very good and possibly elite QB.  -  I think this speaks for most of us Allen "apologists".

 

 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2019 by CincyBillsFan

[DCOrange]

16 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I get it, but this is the kind of agenda-ridden "hot take" that polarizes us.  I mean, if Beasley is "roasting DBs and getting nothing for it", how did he wind up with 107 yd 7 reception day?  Srsly, Cian, did he throw them to himself?  

 

For perspective, that's Cole's 2nd 100+ yd game with Allen this season. 

 

He had several each year in his previous 7 seasons, right?  Nope.  Previous 7 season total, 2 100+ yd games, one in 2018 and one in 2015.

 

It would be fine to criticize, if Cian comes back and gives credit where due, like for the 2nd throw to Knox or the "sick burn" Brown reception.

These comparisons of Brown/Beasley this year compared to prior years I think boils down to their team role more than anything (though I think everyone can agree Brown in particular is simply playing better than he ever has before as well).

 

But for example with Beasley, 16% of the Cowboys' pass attempts went to Beasley the past 3 years compared to 23% this year. That's probably the simplest reason that Beasley is having his most productive season of his career; it's not really about Allen. It's about the fact that he's the #2 target on the team by a mile versus just being a guy with Dallas.

[klos63]

56 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Yes, Allen missed an open receiver in the end zone. It happens. He also happens to have a 67% completion percentage inside the 10 and is the top rated passer in the NFL inside the 10 yard line. EVERY QB misses "open" receivers now and then in the end zone. Why Allen is held to a different standard is beyond me.

It's not a different standard, I don't care about other teams QB's, just ours. And it wasn't 'an open receiver' it was 2 that would have been for touchdowns and we likely win the game. He is our franchise QB, expectations need to be higher than other QB's, most of which are not franchise QB's.

[oldmanfan]

18 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

IMO lies by omission are the worst kinds of lies and a lot of Allen critics seem to leave a lot out when describing Allen's QB play.

 

To focus ONLY on the bad throws or missed reads is a form of lying plain & simple.  And these folks wonder why we respond to the lies like we do.

 

I'll say it ONE MORE time:  Allen must continue to improve his game; we won't know for another couple of years if he's our franchise guy; Allen has made great progress and some of his plays are amazing but other aspects of his game need improvement;  all indications are that he's going to develop into a very good and possibly elite QB.  -  I think this speaks for most of us Allen "apologists".

 

 

 

 

And there you go.  Game, set, match.  Thanks!

[billsfan1959]

3 minutes ago, klos63 said:

It's not a different standard, I don't care about other teams QB's, just ours. And it wasn't 'an open receiver' it was 2 that would have been for touchdowns and we likely win the game. He is our franchise QB, expectations need to be higher than other QB's, most of which are not franchise QB's.

 

And my point was, inside the red zone - and particularly inside the 10 yard line - Allen has been tremendous this year. He missed a couple throws that EVERY QB misses now and then. To say you don't care about other QBs and say it isn't a different standard is a ridiculous. You can't have a standard at all if you don't look at all QBs. The truth is, by every measurable standard of QB play in the redzone, Allen has exceeded the standard and what should be expected.

 

There are a number of things in that game that could have resulted in a win if they had gone differently. To focus on just those two throws is silly.

[Big Gun]

37 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I get it, but this is the kind of agenda-ridden "hot take" that polarizes us.  I mean, if Beasley is "roasting DBs and getting nothing for it", how did he wind up with 107 yd 7 reception day?  Srsly, Cian, did he throw them to himself?  

 

For perspective, that's Cole's 2nd 100+ yd game with Allen this season. 

 

He had several each year in his previous 7 seasons, right?  Nope.  Previous 7 season total, 2 100+ yd games, one in 2018 and one in 2015.

 

It would be fine to criticize, if Cian comes back and gives credit where due, like for the 2nd throw to Knox or the "sick burn" Brown reception.

Cian is a hack, terrible at his job!

32 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

IMO lies by omission are the worst kinds of lies and a lot of Allen critics seem to leave a lot out when describing Allen's QB play.

 

To focus ONLY on the bad throws or missed reads is a form of lying plain & simple.  And these folks wonder why we respond to the lies like we do.

 

I'll say it ONE MORE time:  Allen must continue to improve his game; we won't know for another couple of years if he's our franchise guy; Allen has made great progress and some of his plays are amazing but other aspects of his game need improvement;  all indications are that he's going to develop into a very good and possibly elite QB.  -  I think this speaks for most of us Allen "apologists".

 

 

 

 

I agree with everything except the bolded, he is the franchise guy, it's really not debatable at this point. Beane and Mcd are not going to invest, 2 let alone 5 or 6 years on Allen if he isn't the franchise going forward.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

These comparisons of Brown/Beasley this year compared to prior years I think boils down to their team role more than anything (though I think everyone can agree Brown in particular is simply playing better than he ever has before as well).

 

But for example with Beasley, 16% of the Cowboys' pass attempts went to Beasley the past 3 years compared to 23% this year. That's probably the simplest reason that Beasley is having his most productive season of his career; it's not really about Allen. It's about the fact that he's the #2 target on the team by a mile versus just being a guy with Dallas.

 

It's a valid point that Beasley has been a larger part of the Bills offense than he was on the Cowboys - although he was the Cowboys #1 WR in receptions and targets, if we project Cooper to 16 games, he would have had more, and the run game/Elliot are a huge part of the Dallas offense.

 

Of course, Beasley is the Bills #2 WR in targets with the Bills this year, Brown is #1. 

 

I don't like capturing pass attempts as percent here.  The Cowboys last year had 527 pass attempts to the Bills 473.  It's clearer to just say Beas had 19 more targets this year.

 

But none of this takes away from the fundamental point that people twittering on about how Beasley is "getting nothing for it" are flying in the face of the fundamental fact that Beas had a very good game yesterday, his 2nd 100 yd game of the season and 4th of his career, and is within 50 yds of a career year - on a team where he is the #2 WR and the team itself is #27 in the league for passing attempts. 

 

That isn't "nothing", and it wasn't achieved with a QB who "can't hit the side of a barn with a stick".  That's just a ridiculous pile of a LAMP hot take.

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

??? Mahomes put up 40 points in that game and NE had the ball last, kicking the go ahead field goal with no time left to win 43-40.....Mahomes didn't carry his team that day?  He was the only reason the team was in it.

Sitting here bored at work.......i was wondering how many games do you really need to see before you get a good idea of who the player is.

so what I did was started looking at the first 16 STARTS of a QB's career and then compared that to their career averages to see how much deviation there was from those first 16 games to what they produced/became over a career.

MOST of the guys I looked at...it was remarkable who little deviation there was from the averages of the 1st 16 games, to the averages for the whole of their careers. Joe Flacco for example...you can take his rookie year, and those stats don't deviate much at all from his career averages...he was who he was going to be after 16 games. There were a lot of guys I looked at who had similar showings.....Vinny Testaverde, Chad Pennington, Boomer Esiason, Don Majkowski....and many many more....just didn't deviate all that much from the guy they were in their first 16 games. 

Most guys tended to improve their Yards Per Game by 30-40 yards over their rookie years....the INT pct surprisingly, for many, went up overall, as they progressed. The Completion PCT didn't vary a whole lot....typically about a 3% incresase over the first 16 games compared to the whole of the career.

Some guys that were drastic outliers...Tom Brady...INT pct went way down, YPG went way up. Elways completion pct improved only modestly, but he was throwing for many more yards per game later on in his career. Alex Smith might be the biggest improvement from 16 games in, to whole career that I looked at....he was absolute trash 16 games in....if he hadn't been a 1/1, his career would have, and should have ended a very very long time ago....but his later career stats really pick way up....took him a long time to blossom into something decent I guess. Peyton Manning is another one whose first 16 wern't very good..but he improved accross the board substantially after that..His second set of 16 games was much closer to what his career averages would be, with the exception of completion PCT. Manning really got ALOT more accurate as time went on.

A few guys got progressively worse from their 16 starts onward.....Rick Mirer one of the better known QB's who came in hot, and then flamed out. People might mis remember Dan Marino a bit....his rookie year was 83, when he started 9 games and was quite good....it was 84 that he had his big record breaker year...so the first 5 games of that, along with is rookie year....Marino was mostly on his career averages when compared to his first 16 games overall. Matt Cassel was another one I looked at....his career trajectory...DOWNWARD....was interesting because his first 15 starts were with the Randy Moss patriots...the team that had gone undefeated in the regular season the year before. Cassel went 11-5 with that group and had decent numbers....never to be repeated. Bubby Brister actually was a little better to start than he ended up being over the course of his career....never posting good numbers..they just got worse over time.

While there are exceptions both where guys show out better than their first 16 and some show out worse....A TON of dudes....are who their first 16 starts say they are.

 

Just wanted to share this because while there are exceptions....starting to get into the territory of where Josh might be who Josh is gonna be.

Tags: None

 

I assumed the poster meant the game the Chiefs won this year.

 

Yes that game you point to is the best game the Pat's defense has allowed for an opposing QB over the last 2 years--though Mahomes also threw 2 INTs in that game... one could certainly argue those 2 picks determined the outcome...

 

and what was the outcome of that game? Did the Chiefs win or lose?

[transplantbillsfan]

15 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Patriots and Bills are tied for 2nd in total drops, but the Bills drop rate is 4.7% vs the Patriots drop rate of 3.7%.

 

If the Bills had the same drop rate as the Patriots, Allen would have 5 more completions, bringing his completion percentage up to 59.9%.

 

Sorry on this earlier guys... 2nd time I forgot to move the decimal point.

 

now it's correct 

[Zerovoltz]

7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I assumed the poster meant the game the Chiefs won this year.

 

Yes that game you point to is the best game the Pat's defense has allowed for an opposing QB over the last 2 years--though Mahomes also threw 2 INTs in that game... one could certainly argue those 2 picks determined the outcome...

 

and what was the outcome of that game? Did the Chiefs win or lose?

 

.....Come on Transplant....they lost that game.  After all the work you've done to make the completion % number whatever you want it to mean, you are going to tell me that a 23/36 for 352 4TD and 2 INTS with a 110 passer rating.....is an L BECAUSE of the QB.  and one of those INTS was a hail mary attempt at the end of the 1st half.

 

Patrick Mahomes has played the NE defense 3 times in his career.  He is 65/107 for 930 Yds, 8 TD passing 3 INTS (one a hail mary at half) NO QB in the Belichick/Brady era has anything remotely close to that per game average against them.  

 

Josh Allen has also played the Pats D 3 times in his career.  H is 46/95 (under 50%, ton of drops I guess in all 3 games right?) for 578, 3 TD, 5 INTS and 1 rushing TD.  Even if you took out the drop% and added those completions...he's under 50% still.  2 of Allens games were this year....when the Pats are slowing down.  2 of Mahomes were last season VS higher level Pats teams.  

 

 

 

 

  

[transplantbillsfan]

29 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

.....Come on Transplant....they lost that game.  After all the work you've done to make the completion % number whatever you want it to mean, you are going to tell me that a 23/36 for 352 4TD and 2 INTS with a 110 passer rating.....is an L BECAUSE of the QB.  and one of those INTS was a hail mary attempt at the end of the 1st half.

 

Actually I don't particularly care about completion percentage as far as how it relates to QB accuracy, I care about it because it means plays are being made on the field.

 

I've maintained for awhile now that completion percentage doesn't reflect accuracy. I just pretty firmly believed his completion percentage would go up significantly this year because we've upgraded our talent. It has gone up, but not as much as I thought it would.

 

I didn't anticipate we'd have the highest drop rate in the NFL despite the upgraded talent.

 

 

And I am not saying that game was an L because of Mahomes. If you read what I said, I said it was the best game for a non-Patriots QB in the last 2 years.

 

They didn't lose that game because of him. No. 

 

They also didn't win the game in Foxborough because of him, either.

 

This is all about cherry picking with this, isn't it?

 

If Josh Allen hits Knox on those 2 EZ attempts, the Bills win. Right? That's the logic here, isn't it?

 

Okay, same logic would be last year if Mahomes didn't throw that interception (the non hail Mary), the Chiefs would have won that game.

 

So if this L was on Allen, that one was on mahomes, right?

 

 

[Zerovoltz]

4 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Actually I don't particularly care about completion percentage as far as how it relates to QB accuracy, I care about it because it means plays are being made on the field.

 

I've maintained for awhile now that completion percentage doesn't reflect accuracy. I just pretty firmly believed his completion percentage would go up significantly this year because we've upgraded our talent. It has gone up, but not as much as I thought it would.

 

I didn't anticipate we'd have the highest drop rate in the NFL despite the upgraded talent.

 

 

And I am not saying that game was an L because of Mahomes. If you read what I said, I said it was the best game for a non-Patriots QB in the last 2 years.

 

They didn't lose that game because of him. No. 

 

They also didn't win the game in Foxborough because of him, either.

 

This is all about cherry picking with this, isn't it?

 

If Josh Allen hits Knox on those 2 EZ attempts, the Bills win. Right? That's the logic here, isn't it?

 

Okay, same logic would be last year if Mahomes didn't throw that interception (the non hail Mary), the Chiefs would have won that game.

 

So if this L was on Allen, that one was on mahomes, right?

 

 

 

Ok....first...I must have misunderstood what you were saying with Mahomes....so, let's dismiss that...no one here (besides me) wants to discuss Mahomes.

 

Regarding Allen, I had mentioned elsewhere I think in this long thread, that regarding drops....I have seen Allen throw some passes that you might be grading as catchable that I think are actually really tough to catch....what I mean is that Allen will throw a very high velocity, NON tight sprialed knuckleball from time to time and often, not right on the numbers.....that is a ball that is really hard to catch because it isn't going to cleanly fit into the hands of the reciever and it is very likely going to need to be aided by being brought into the body.  When that ball is off the nubmers, it's often off the hands, and into should pads, helmet or just plain through the hands.  Someone tried to say guys field punts that are wobbling like this....and that is NOT the same thing at all.  

 

Also....I do see you try and make a call on drops, then add those as catches to see what that brings the PCT up to.....1.  It's still low. 2.  Even teams that drop at a lower rate...if you adjusted everyone, you'll never come close to dressing up Allens completion numbers to something top half of leauge.  You kind of negate the idea that adding better targets is going to make Allen an upper echelon QB when it comes to Comp %....your drop pct add on proves that even if you had guys on your team that never dropped anything, Allen isn't completing passes at top half rate.

 

I'm not arguing that Allen can't be a winner (clearly, the Bills are winning in 2019 with Allen) but he is NOT the guy that raises the talent around him...you might even say that at times with his poor ball placement, he negates the talent around him wiht lost YAC etc. .....but makes up for hit with his incredible escapability and running.  

 

......The Bills are 1-5 this year against teams who started a QB with a higher QB rating than Allen.....Dak Prescot was the win.

[Gugny]

1 hour ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

Ok....first...I must have misunderstood what you were saying with Mahomes....so, let's dismiss that...no one here (besides me) wants to discuss Mahomes.

 

Regarding Allen, I had mentioned elsewhere I think in this long thread, that regarding drops....I have seen Allen throw some passes that you might be grading as catchable that I think are actually really tough to catch....what I mean is that Allen will throw a very high velocity, NON tight sprialed knuckleball from time to time and often, not right on the numbers.....that is a ball that is really hard to catch because it isn't going to cleanly fit into the hands of the reciever and it is very likely going to need to be aided by being brought into the body.  When that ball is off the nubmers, it's often off the hands, and into should pads, helmet or just plain through the hands.  Someone tried to say guys field punts that are wobbling like this....and that is NOT the same thing at all.  

 

Also....I do see you try and make a call on drops, then add those as catches to see what that brings the PCT up to.....1.  It's still low. 2.  Even teams that drop at a lower rate...if you adjusted everyone, you'll never come close to dressing up Allens completion numbers to something top half of leauge.  You kind of negate the idea that adding better targets is going to make Allen an upper echelon QB when it comes to Comp %....your drop pct add on proves that even if you had guys on your team that never dropped anything, Allen isn't completing passes at top half rate.

 

I'm not arguing that Allen can't be a winner (clearly, the Bills are winning in 2019 with Allen) but he is NOT the guy that raises the talent around him...you might even say that at times with his poor ball placement, he negates the talent around him wiht lost YAC etc. .....but makes up for hit with his incredible escapability and running.  

 

......The Bills are 1-5 this year against teams who started a QB with a higher QB rating than Allen.....Dak Prescot was the win.

 

These two things are patently false.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 12/23/2019 at 3:25 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

I don’t get why people work so hard to try to make passing a bad thing.  We won’t be a better team with Matt Ryan?  Last year, 5 of the top 8 in passing yards had winning records.

 

Passing is not a bad thing.  Not at all.  I like passing.  I'd be happy to see more passing. 

I like the oooohs and aaaaaaahs as well as anyone

 

It's just that people get all revved up over 300 yd games, and it's really kind of an arbitrary number that doesn't necessarily tell you that much.  It used to be weakly correlated with losing, now it's weakly correlated with winning - very weakly.

[Zerovoltz]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Passing is not a bad thing.  Not at all.  I like passing.  I'd be happy to see more passing. 

I like the oooohs and aaaaaaahs as well as anyone

 

It's just that people get all revved up over 300 yd games, and it's really kind of an arbitrary number that doesn't necessarily tell you that much.  It used to be weakly correlated with losing, now it's weakly correlated with winning - very weakly.

 

Need some kind of offense/QB efficiency rating that means more toward a winning (or losing) performance.  The current metrics aren't really very good at telling that story.

[GoBills808]

58 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

Need some kind of offense/QB efficiency rating that means more toward a winning (or losing) performance.  The current metrics aren't really very good at telling that story.

It’s called adjusted net yards per attempt.

[GoBills808]

^for detailed explanation as well as why passer rating is basically useless, this is a good place to start- https://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/

[ganesh]

15 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Yes, Allen missed an open receiver in the end zone. It happens. He also happens to have a 67% completion percentage inside the 10 and is the top rated passer in the NFL inside the 10 yard line. EVERY QB misses "open" receivers now and then in the end zone. Why Allen is held to a different standard is beyond me.

this !

[Zerovoltz]

41 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

^for detailed explanation as well as why passer rating is basically useless, this is a good place to start- https://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/

I have agreed with this for a long time.  I like QBR better, but it is flawed also.  

 

I like AYN/A  but when you run that stat against QBR and Passer Rating.....the list of guys who are the NFL's "leading passers" doesn't really change much.  Mahomes is 1st in the NFL at AYN/A but 5th in QB Rating.  Lamar Jackson is 3rd in both.  Josh Allen is in the 20's in both.  

 

I know QBR tries to take into account the context of game situations...but that is arbitrary to the person doing the scoring.

[GoBills808]

22 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

I have agreed with this for a long time.  I like QBR better, but it is flawed also.  

 

I like AYN/A  but when you run that stat against QBR and Passer Rating.....the list of guys who are the NFL's "leading passers" doesn't really change much.  Mahomes is 1st in the NFL at AYN/A but 5th in QB Rating.  Lamar Jackson is 3rd in both.  Josh Allen is in the 20's in both.  

 

I know QBR tries to take into account the context of game situations...but that is arbitrary to the person doing the scoring.

Best way imo to get a formula for predictive W/L would be ANY/A differential; takes into account both sides of the team. 
 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

Ok....first...I must have misunderstood what you were saying with Mahomes....so, let's dismiss that...no one here (besides me) wants to discuss Mahomes.

 

Regarding Allen, I had mentioned elsewhere I think in this long thread, that regarding drops....I have seen Allen throw some passes that you might be grading as catchable that I think are actually really tough to catch....what I mean is that Allen will throw a very high velocity, NON tight sprialed knuckleball from time to time and often, not right on the numbers.....that is a ball that is really hard to catch because it isn't going to cleanly fit into the hands of the reciever and it is very likely going to need to be aided by being brought into the body.  When that ball is off the nubmers, it's often off the hands, and into should pads, helmet or just plain through the hands.  Someone tried to say guys field punts that are wobbling like this....and that is NOT the same thing at all.  

 

Also....I do see you try and make a call on drops, then add those as catches to see what that brings the PCT up to.....1.  It's still low. 2.  Even teams that drop at a lower rate...if you adjusted everyone, you'll never come close to dressing up Allens completion numbers to something top half of leauge.  You kind of negate the idea that adding better targets is going to make Allen an upper echelon QB when it comes to Comp %....your drop pct add on proves that even if you had guys on your team that never dropped anything, Allen isn't completing passes at top half rate.

 

I'm not arguing that Allen can't be a winner (clearly, the Bills are winning in 2019 with Allen) but he is NOT the guy that raises the talent around him...you might even say that at times with his poor ball placement, he negates the talent around him wiht lost YAC etc. .....but makes up for hit with his incredible escapability and running.  

 

......The Bills are 1-5 this year against teams who started a QB with a higher QB rating than Allen.....Dak Prescot was the win.

 

First of all, drops are a stat tracked by the NFL and they're extremely conservative... only the most obvious ones. The whole ball velocity too much argument goes out the window for these because they're blatant.

 

And the Bills have a higher drop percentage of any team in the NFL.

 

These aren't numbers I'm making up.

 

You're a Chiefs fan?

 

If the Bills had the same drop percentage as the Chiefs, Allen's completion percentage goes up to 60.5%. He would also pretty naturally have a higher YPA, too... at the very least. Is 60.5% good enough? Well, right now 58.8% seems to be good enough as far as this season goes, but 60.5% would obviously just look better optically.

 

And then imagine if the Bills had the drop percentage of the Falcons at 1.1%... Allen's completion % goes up to 62.5%

 

And remember... those stats only account for blatant drops, not the catchable ones you think I'm talking about.

 

But Merry Christmas nonetheless.