iinii Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 4 hours ago, Lurker said: Nope. But an key AFC contender for a playoff spot will be 0-1.... Little chance of that. The Jets aren’t a contender and I think we win going away. Our D will carry them against a team we should sweep this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radar Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 Just now, iinii said: Little chance of that. The Jets aren’t a contender and I think we win going away. Our D will carry them against a team we should sweep this year. This would surprise me greatly and make me happy. I favor Jets at home by a field goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iinii Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 Just now, Radar said: This would surprise me greatly and make me happy. I favor Jets at home by a field goal. Well we will see on Sunday. As they say, “that’s why they play the game.” One of the reasons anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 40 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said: I'm with you on this. It's one game. One I think the Bills are gonna win. But I'm not gonna lose my stuff if they lose. I wouldn't lose my stuff, hell, what bills fan isn't used to losing? I mean, speaking for myself, I can't remember going in to a game believing the bills will win, even against the weak opponents. I'm going in to this game just the same way. thing is, I do believe a loss is not sending them in the right direction, early. I haven't the confidence and I know they haven't taken a snap yet but I feel they need to go in there and make a statement, now. that's just me though man, who knows. they could start 0-3 and still make the playoffs but starting in a hole isn't a good start. at the end of the day, they likely don't make the playoffs anyway. they'll show some promise and I have them at 9 wins, maybe 2nd in (possibly 3rd with the L) the division? so not in the basement. this season will likely be all about JA and hopefully developing and winning a few games. 2020 after another off season and draft should be the (if marcia retires, you know how all fear marcia) season they should win at least 10 games and a chance at the division? wouldn't that be cool to have a bye and home field back in buffalo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, thebandit27 said: I have had 2 different posters tell me that the playoffs more or less hinge on this game. Week 1. Which is, quite simply, silly. Historically your chances of making the playoffs with a week 1 win are 54% . A week one loss means a 25% chance. Probability percentages are not binary. But if you lose week 1, your chances of making the playoffs, the last 30 years, are much much less. This is based on historical facts. It is not a theory or a debatable point. If past is prologue, week one is important. Edited September 3, 2019 by PlayoffsPlease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iinii Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said: Historically your chances of making the playoffs with a week 1 win are 54% . A week one loss means a 25% chance. Probability percentages are not binary. But if you lose week 1, your chances of making the playoffs, the last 30 years, are much much less. This is based on historical facts. It is not a theory or a debatable point. If past is prologue, week one is important. Losing on week two combined with an opening day loss drives your chances down even farther. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
artmalibu Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 being a division and a conference game it is very important. Add to that its a road game, and road win are always big in the NFL.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said: Historically your chances of making the playoffs with a week 1 win are 54% . A week one loss means a 25% chance. Probability percentages are not binary. But if you lose week 1, your chances of making the playoffs, the last 30 years, are much much less. This is based on historical facts. It is not a theory or a debatable point. If past is prologue, week one is important. What you mean to say is that, historically, teams that win in week 1 have a 54% success rate of making the playoffs. Any team's individual probability of making the playoffs after starting 1-0 or 0-1 will not be 54% or 25%, respectively, every time. Probability and historical success rate are not the same thing. This is statistics 101. Last year, you'd have told me that Seattle, New Orleans, Chicago, LAC, Indianapolis, Houston, and Dallas all had a 25% chance of making the playoffs...but that wouldn't be true, because you're basing that purely upon historical success rate, and not on other very relevant factors like talent, coaching, strength of schedule, injury rate, bye week, suspended players, etc. But I won't belabor the point any further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 (edited) 58 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: You can lose in week 1, even to a divisional opponent, and make the playoffs. You can even lose in week 1 and make the Super Bowl. Well, it certainly helps if you're a strong playoff caliber team if you're going to go that route. Of the 2018 playoff teams that lost in week 1 that you cited up-thread, only the Colts situation was comparable to what the Bills might do this year with a week 1 loss (especially to a divisional opponant). All of the other week 1 losers in 2018 were solid/consensus playoff teams--of which the Bills are definitely not, based on most NFL observers' esrimation right now... Edited September 3, 2019 by Lurker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 obviously very important AFC game AFC east game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffAlone Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 4 hours ago, Gugny said: I believe he was saying that, in order to get a WC spot, you must win games against teams in your division. I know. just trying to be a funny guy. I don't always succeed ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 The Jets are a team that could be contending with the Bills for a WC and have a brutal schedule to start the season (BUF, CLE, NE, PHI, DAL, NE) but it gets a hell of a lot easier after that. The Bills are the easiest game to start the season and it's at home. Give them an L and their entire season could go down the drain very quickly. Get them into a hole quickly and let the NYC media eat them alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 Emmitt Smith sat out the first two games on a contract dispute, Cowboys started 0-2 and won the SB they always include that year in the stats for teams making the playoffs starting 0-2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, BuffAlone said: I know. just trying to be a funny guy. I don't always succeed ? Sorry, dude!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 37 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: What you mean to say is that, historically, teams that win in week 1 have a 54% success rate of making the playoffs. Any team's individual probability of making the playoffs after starting 1-0 or 0-1 will not be 54% or 25%, respectively, every time. Probability and historical success rate are not the same thing. This is statistics 101. Last year, you'd have told me that Seattle, New Orleans, Chicago, LAC, Indianapolis, Houston, and Dallas all had a 25% chance of making the playoffs...but that wouldn't be true, because you're basing that purely upon historical success rate, and not on other very relevant factors like talent, coaching, strength of schedule, injury rate, bye week, suspended players, etc. But I won't belabor the point any further. You should not belabor the point, because you are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 can we have more cherry picked stats with the totally false assumption that anything that happened in the past dictates future events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said: You should not belabor the point, because you are wrong. I know I shouldn't engage here, but just for fun... Suppose I flip a typical coin 10 times, and 6 times it comes up heads. What is the probability that it will come up heads on the 11th flip? Going by the logic you're using here, the answer would be 60%. Do you think that's correct? If not, then it would behoove you to rethink who's wrong here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dakrider Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 6 hours ago, Jobot said: It would more critical to win if they were playing in Buffalo, but still not a must win. It's wayy too early to tell how good/bad any team is going to be for the season, therefore I find it tough to put a 'must-win' label on a week 1 game. Another problem with week-1 is there is so much 'unknown' about your own team that boils all the way down to just communication and game management by the staff that has to get worked out. Thankfully all teams experience the 'week-1' challenges, so it's just another fun random variable that no one can possibly account for. I disagree. I think this is a critical game for Bills. I expect the Jets to get better as the season goes on, especially on offense. Of course I think the Bills will do that too. However the Bills Defense should be head and shoulders above the Jets D in Game 1 here and Bills have to take advantage of that and win this game. If Bills can't beat what was a lousy Jets team last year in Game 1, then Bills fans have no business talking about playoffs imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 21 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: I know I shouldn't engage here, but just for fun... Suppose I flip a typical coin 10 times, and 6 times it comes up heads. What is the probability that it will come up heads on the 11th flip? Going by the logic you're using here, the answer would be 60%. Do you think that's correct? If not, then it would behoove you to rethink who's wrong here. to play along... if you could tell me right now how many wins the 2nd WC team from the AFC needs, that might help... it has required from 9 to 11 the last few years that makes a ton of difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 1 minute ago, row_33 said: to play along... if you could tell me right now how many wins the 2nd WC team from the AFC needs, that might help... it has required from 9 to 11 the last few years that makes a ton of difference We don't know. That's part of the point. They all matter. I don't have anything else that I can add to my point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 having to go 11-4 after losing to the Jets would be a tall task Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 They're all important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: We don't know. That's part of the point. They all matter. I don't have anything else that I can add to my point i just hope for the team to improve and become a real contender just when Brady rides off into the sunset read today that 15 teams are all playing the "trust the process" card Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jobot Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 15 hours ago, dakrider said: I disagree. I think this is a critical game for Bills. I expect the Jets to get better as the season goes on, especially on offense. Of course I think the Bills will do that too. However the Bills Defense should be head and shoulders above the Jets D in Game 1 here and Bills have to take advantage of that and win this game. If Bills can't beat what was a lousy Jets team last year in Game 1, then Bills fans have no business talking about playoffs imo. I'm hoping the Bills can stick near .500 throughout the first half of the year. I fully anticipate the O-line to have some bumpy points as they try to gel and hopefully hit stride mid-year. You want your team performing best at the end of the year, so I disagree that a loss to the Jets week-1 means playoffs are out of a realistic expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocket94 Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Every damn game is important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 important enough to sit there watching and try to break out of that jaded spell since the 2000 season, hoping for greatness.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 It's not just the Jets game. This team has an opportunity to start the season 3-0. Weeks 13-16 are brutal. If they want any chance of making the playoffs this year it's imperative that they get off hot..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 18 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said: Historically your chances of making the playoffs with a week 1 win are 54% . A week one loss means a 25% chance. Probability percentages are not binary. But if you lose week 1, your chances of making the playoffs, the last 30 years, are much much less. This is based on historical facts. It is not a theory or a debatable point. If past is prologue, week one is important. I agree that the first game is very important. Your quoted statistics are in fact, a fact, BUT the conclusions drawn from statistics can be debated. Statistically, the probability of any team making the playoffs (12 spots for 32 teams) is 37.5%. I will ask you to consider the following: 1. All the football teams that have played their first game over the past 30 years are not equal in their playoff chances. Some of those teams were very strong, some were very weak and the rest were "average" in their strength going into game 1. 2. If you use the above consideration then one could say there is a higher probability that the strong teams beat the weaker teams in the first week of the season at a higher rate than weaker teams beating stronger teams. 3. Then one could conclude that the winners of game 1 "tend" to be the better teams that particular year resulting in the 54% to 25% statistic. An analogy of the conclusion I draw from the statistic is that the "cream" starts to rise from the 1st game. That conclusion differs from the idea that let's say the Miami Dolphins (as an example of a weak team) winning their 1st game this year somehow changes their "destiny" of NOT making the playoffs to having a 54% chance of making the playoffs because they won the game with a few lucky bounces. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 34 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: I agree that the first game is very important. Your quoted statistics are in fact, a fact, BUT the conclusions drawn from statistics can be debated. Statistically, the probability of any team making the playoffs (12 spots for 32 teams) is 37.5%. I will ask you to consider the following: 1. All the football teams that have played their first game over the past 30 years are not equal in their playoff chances. Some of those teams were very strong, some were very weak and the rest were "average" in their strength going into game 1. 2. If you use the above consideration then one could say there is a higher probability that the strong teams beat the weaker teams in the first week of the season at a higher rate than weaker teams beating stronger teams. 3. Then one could conclude that the winners of game 1 "tend" to be the better teams that particular year resulting in the 54% to 25% statistic. An analogy of the conclusion I draw from the statistic is that the "cream" starts to rise from the 1st game. That conclusion differs from the idea that let's say the Miami Dolphins (as an example of a weak team) winning their 1st game this year somehow changes their "destiny" of NOT making the playoffs to having a 54% chance of making the playoffs because they won the game with a few lucky bounces. FWIW To expand on the point you are trying to make, sometimes top teams will meet week 1. If the Chiefs played the Pats week 1, would NOT claim the loser has only a 25% chance of making the playoffs. I will say that with a high degree of certainty you can only lose 6 games and expect to make the playoffs. The Jets and Bills are not the chiefs and patriots. The are truly each "just a team". A loss to the Bills or a loss to the Jets is not the same as a loss to the Patriots or the Chiefs. To expand on your second point, the team that loses is way more likely to be "just a team" than the type of powerhouse that will overcome the historical odds and have an easy March to the playoffs. The most troubling thing to me is how few teams overcome being 2 games below 500 at any point to make the playoffs, 0-2 teams. Single digit success rates or close to it (0-2 is 12%). A week one loss has you 50% of the way to oblivion. 16 games is a really small universe. Its part of what makes football unique from the other major sports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said: To expand on the point you are trying to make, sometimes top teams will meet week 1. If the Chiefs played the Pats week 1, would NOT claim the loser has only a 25% chance of making the playoffs. I will say that with a high degree of certainty you can only lose 6 games and expect to make the playoffs. The Jets and Bills are not the chiefs and patriots. The are truly each "just a team". A loss to the Bills or a loss to the Jets is not the same as a loss to the Patriots or the Chiefs. To expand on your second point, the team that loses is way more likely to be "just a team" than the type of powerhouse that will overcome the historical odds and have an easy March to the playoffs. The most troubling thing to me is how few teams overcome being 2 games below 500 at any point to make the playoffs, 0-2 teams. Single digit success rates or close to it (0-2 is 12%). A week one loss has you 50% of the way to oblivion. 16 games is a really small universe. Its part of what makes football unique from the other major sports. Thank you for seeing my point. The Bills are a classic team striving to change their trend and become a team worthy of a strong playoff challenge. For me the past is the past and the new organization is in fact "new". There is only 2 ways to make the playoffs. Win your division or be one of the 2 wildcards out of the remaining 12 teams. The frigging Pats* have been a wall for a division title for the entire century condemning the Bills to Wildcard status only. Consistently losing 2 games a year to the Pats* also reduce the odds of a Wildcard compared to the rest of the division. Statistically, the chances of the Bills making the playoffs as a Wildcard (2 of 12 teams) has been 16.6% throughout the Pats* dynasty. Remember that is compared to 37.5% for a team that "could" be a Division Champion. The simple truth is having the Pats* win the division each year cuts the Bills (Phish and Jests too) chances of playoffs by more than half. Throwing in the 2 losses a year to the Pats* decreases those chances a lot more (I'm not going to do the math but probably should). When you look at at the above it makes this Sunday's game very important. The other way for the Bills to get to the playoffs is at least splitting the series with the Pats* which I hope happens this year. I am looking forward to see how this season plays out! Go Bills! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 12 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: Thank you for seeing my point. The Bills are a classic team striving to change their trend and become a team worthy of a strong playoff challenge. For me the past is the past and the new organization is in fact "new". There is only 2 ways to make the playoffs. Win your division or be one of the 2 wildcards out of the remaining 12 teams. The frigging Pats* have been a wall for a division title for the entire century condemning the Bills to Wildcard status only. Consistently losing 2 games a year to the Pats* also reduce the odds of a Wildcard compared to the rest of the division. Statistically, the chances of the Bills making the playoffs as a Wildcard (2 of 12 teams) has been 16.6% throughout the Pats* dynasty. Remember that is compared to 37.5% for a team that "could" be a Division Champion. The simple truth is having the Pats* win the division each year cuts the Bills (Phish and Jests too) chances of playoffs by more than half. Throwing in the 2 losses a year to the Pats* decreases those chances a lot more (I'm not going to do the math but probably should). When you look at at the above it makes this Sunday's game very important. The other way for the Bills to get to the playoffs is at least splitting the series with the Pats* which I hope happens this year. I am looking forward to see how this season plays out! Go Bills! The Patriots won't win every game. The Chiefs wont win every game. I suspect they will go into every game this season with the view that they "should win" the upcoming game. I fear that losing teams, players and coaches are somewhat self-defeating by parsing the games into "should win" and "should not expect to win" categories. I think you know you have arrived when you stop doing that. I suspect this is the first year the since Reid became coach the Chiefs have this perspective. It may be more accurate to say the Bills-Jets game is a very "important indicator" of where the teams are rather get caught up in the semantics of the game itself being "important". In fact if you think about it, "important game" is pretty much an oxymoron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 31 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said: The Patriots won't win every game. The Chiefs wont win every game. I suspect they will go into every game this season with the view that they "should win" the upcoming game. I fear that losing teams, players and coaches are somewhat self-defeating by parsing the games into "should win" and "should not expect to win" categories. I think you know you have arrived when you stop doing that. I suspect this is the first year the since Reid became coach the Chiefs have this perspective. It may be more accurate to say the Bills-Jets game is a very "important indicator" of where the teams are rather get caught up in the semantics of the game itself being "important". In fact if you think about it, "important game" is pretty much an oxymoron. Pats will look horrible in a Prime Time game, say at Baltimore in November, so we can have the 28th annual media announcement that they are finished the media bloodbath and trumpeting will continue for weeks until the Pats win it all again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
auburnbillsbacker Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 On 9/3/2019 at 10:47 AM, thebandit27 said: If they win, they'll be 1-0, and have 15 games remaining. If they lose, they'll be 0-1, and have 15 games remaining. Not trying to be a jerk, but that's really the long and short of it. It's one game. It's only 1 game but when the margin of error for making the playoffs is so small the Bills need to beat teams like the Jets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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