The myth of the sophomore QB slump

[Buffalo716]

11 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...850 yards rushing means he's heading for a gurney sooner than later........need a long term franchise solution at QB and not a quick injury exit.....850 is absurd.....

That's realistically what he was on pace for.

 

Correlating stays doesn't always work but I would wager he's closer to 800 than 300

 

He WAS drafted in part because his dual threat abilities

 

Shelving his running game would not be good for him. I never said run 15 times a game

 

I said 6-7 well timed scrambles which is not unheard of or crazy.

 

He got hurt last year in the pocket not outside it. TT was 190 pounds that's why he couldn't scramble

 

Cam gets designed QB runs up the gut. That's why he's been hurt

 

Allen just needs to take off in man coverage 5-7 times a game and he will get 10 yards easily then get down

 

Hes so deadly outside the pocket in the scramble drill where WRs turn and burn deep and a RB flares across the middle

 

He is going to make a living outside the pocket and that doenst mean he hasn't progressed or can't throw from inside it

 

It just means he's deadly outside it

[K-9]

13 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

That's realistically what he was on pace for.

 

Correlating stays doesn't always work but I would wager he's closer to 800 than 300

 

He WAS drafted in part because his dual threat abilities

 

Shelving his running game would not be good for him. I never said run 15 times a game

 

I said 6-7 well timed scrambles which is not unheard of or crazy.

 

He got hurt last year in the pocket not outside it. TT was 190 pounds that's why he couldn't scramble

 

Cam gets designed QB runs up the gut. That's why he's been hurt

 

Allen just needs to take off in man coverage 5-7 times a game and he will get 10 yards easily then get down

 

Hes so deadly outside the pocket in the scramble drill where WRs turn and burn deep and a RB flares across the middle

 

He is going to make a living outside the pocket and that doenst mean he hasn't progressed or can't throw from inside it

 

It just means he's deadly outside it

Per the bold, good point. I wonder how often teams are gonna turn their back on him. He killed teams on scrambles vs. man coverage last year. Especially after he came back from injury. And I think that was with Dabolls’s blessing, too. Our sieve of an OL got him beat up before his injury and I think Daboll told him if it breaks down early, GTF out of there and go. And our added speed at wideout is gonna give defenses more to think about in terms of man to man coverage as well.

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, K-9 said:

Per the bold, good point. I wonder how often teams are gonna turn their back on him. He killed teams on scrambles vs. man coverage last year. Especially after he came back from injury. And I think that was with Dabolls’s blessing, too. Our sieve of an OL got him beat up before his injury and I think Daboll told him if it breaks down early, GTF out of there and go. And our added speed at wideout is gonna give defenses more to think about in terms of man to man coverage as well.

Ive been a player , scout , coach my whole life and never made it to the league and I can figure that out

 

Id like to think NFL D coordinators would realize that man vs Josh is poison but they like to outsmart themselves

 

He will probably see a good amount of it and if he starts torching teams again on the ground they will not collapse the pocket and contain him. Play a spy

 

That was the TT strategy that he couldn't beat, because he is so conservative throwing

 

If you throw that at Josh I don't believe he will be scared to throw into man coverage downfield and the spy will just mean 1 less rusher or person in coverage

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

25 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

That's realistically what he was on pace for.

 

Correlating stays doesn't always work but I would wager he's closer to 800 than 300

 

He WAS drafted in part because his dual threat abilities

 

Shelving his running game would not be good for him. I never said run 15 times a game

 

I said 6-7 well timed scrambles which is not unheard of or crazy.

 

He got hurt last year in the pocket not outside it. TT was 190 pounds that's why he couldn't scramble

 

Cam gets designed QB runs up the gut. That's why he's been hurt

 

Allen just needs to take off in man coverage 5-7 times a game and he will get 10 yards easily then get down

 

Hes so deadly outside the pocket in the scramble drill where WRs turn and burn deep and a RB flares across the middle

 

He is going to make a living outside the pocket and that doenst mean he hasn't progressed or can't throw from inside it

 

It just means he's deadly outside it

 

..if, IF we want him as our long term guy, he needs to temper his tendencies and be more selective....850 yards rushing is NOT a viable "long term health plan"......Brady has miraculously steered clear of QB headhunters for YEARS.....no need for Josh to test their mettle.....

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

..if, IF we want him as our long term guy, he needs to temper his tendencies and be more selective....850 yards rushing is NOT a viable "long term health plan"......Brady has miraculously steered clear of QB headhunters for YEARS.....no need for Josh to test their mettle.....

Josh isn't Tom and will never be Tom.

 

There will NEVER be another Tom Brady again. A guy who dinks and dunks his way 80 yards down the field

 

The league IS going to mobile QBs 

 

Drafting Allen and not letting him use his legs when he's young and strong would be a mistake because it's his biggest asset

 

He is not a classic drop back passer and never will be and that doesn't mean he can't be amazing

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Josh isn't Tom and will never be Tom.

 

There will NEVER be another Tom Brady again. A guy who dinks and dunks his way 80 yards down the field

 

The league IS going to mobile QBs 

 

Drafting Allen and not letting him use his legs when he's young and strong would be a mistake because it's his biggest asset

 

He is not a classic drop back passer and never will be and that doesn't mean he can't be amazing

 

..I'm thinking we are in agreement as far as Allen's amazing skill set, particularly uncanny agility for a kid of his size.......carpe diem bro......where we may differ is how often and to what extent we call upon those attributes.....you say 850 yards rushing.....I'm thinking 450 and tack the 400 yd shortfall onto his arm...just a thought......

[Buffalo716]

9 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

..I'm thinking we are in agreement as far as Allen's amazing skill set, particularly uncanny agility for a kid of his size.......carpe diem bro......where we may differ is how often and to what extent we call upon those attributes.....you say 850 yards rushing.....I'm thinking 450 and tack the 400 yd shortfall onto his arm...just a thought......

I said 6-7 well timed rushes a game which is not alot

 

7 yards a rush would he 800 yards

 

A well timed run vs man coverage is not risky with linebackers and DBs running in man. He can get his yards and get down

 

Cam Newton has only missed 4 games in his career. 2 in 2 different seasons

 

Again I'm not saying this is sustainable yearly. Let him run 6-7 times for a few years. At 28 not so much

Edited June 28, 2019 by Buffalo716

[K-9]

26 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Ive been a player , scout , coach my whole life and never made it to the league and I can figure that out

 

Id like to think NFL D coordinators would realize that man vs Josh is poison but they like to outsmart themselves

 

He will probably see a good amount of it and if he starts torching teams again on the ground they will not collapse the pocket and contain him. Play a spy

 

That was the TT strategy that he couldn't beat, because he is so conservative throwing

 

If you throw that at Josh I don't believe he will be scared to throw into man coverage downfield and the spy will just mean 1 less rusher or person in coverage

Absolutely. Josh’s running threat is gonna force teams to counter and leave something else vulnerable in the process. The old take what they give until they adjust and then start taking what you want. And we both know Allen isn’t gun shy like the aforementioned timid one. 

[JESSEFEFFER]

I can only think of two hits Josh took on a scramble run that gave me any concern.  He did take on some tacklers on a naked bootleg where his legs buckled (home game scoreboard endzone-late 4th quarter-- Jacksonville?)   I can think of many more he took from inside the pocket that were more worrisome including the helmet to his elbow at Houston that cost him 4 games.   Defenders will take shots at him as he continues to frustrate them.

[row_33]

23 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

..I'm thinking we are in agreement as far as Allen's amazing skill set, particularly uncanny agility for a kid of his size.......carpe diem bro......where we may differ is how often and to what extent we call upon those attributes.....you say 850 yards rushing.....I'm thinking 450 and tack the 400 yd shortfall onto his arm...just a thought......

 

he should be learning to stay in the pocket a little longer this year, you are going to have to get used to getting hit while being back there

 

it might look worse coming in just after an all-time panic-stricken-run-for-your-life QB at the helm in Tyrod

 

 

 

 

 

[BillsWilson]

23 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

I originally did this in consideration of the 6.5 over/under line for the Bills season but it also illustrates an important idea opposed to the myth to which you refer.  Big changes in win totals for teams having a starting QB  going into year 2 on their rookie deal are trending.  The basic thinking would be:

 

1) Rookie QBs are not fully equipped to win in year 1 and their team's record will suffer fot it.  The highly drafted QBs almost always play in year 1 but teams do not fully prepare them to do so.  It's like they are afraid to let the veterans on the team see the starting job handed to a rookie without them "earning" it, therefore the foolish effort to give the Petermans and McCarron's of the NFL the bulk of the reps.

 

2) QBs usually have multiple advantages going into year 2 as the starter that were not available to them in year 1 and they should be noticeably improved.  The entire offseason, usually within the same offense as year 1, gives them many additional months to hone their craft.

 

3) Their relatively low salary cap numbers are compatible with building the roster around them. 

 

Year 2 improvement is almost a certainty for both the QB and the team.  Teams having a sub .500 record where a rookie played at least 8 games went  12 of 14 at improving their year 2 record at least 1 game.  That elminates Mahomes, Luck, Dalton, Bridgewater and Griffen from consideration.  Glennon and Gabbert were the only over/under "losers."  That's 8 of 14 (excluding EJ) with at least a 3 game improvement and 7 of 14 with a 4 or more win improvement.  So screw the sophomore jinx crap and dare to think big.  A 4 game improvement gets the Bills in the playoffs and 5 or more threatens the Patriots for the divison.  These kinds of improvements have been happening almost every year since the current CBA was in place.  Why not the Bills in 2019?

 

QB	Drafted #	Team	Year 1	Wins	Year 2	Wins	Δ
Goff	1	Rams	2016	4	2017	11	7
Trubisky	2	Bears	2017	5	2018	12	7
Watson	12	Texans	2017	4	2018	11	7
Ponder	12	Vikings	2011	3	2012	10	7
Wentz	2	Eagles	2016	7	2017	13	6
Mariotta	2	Titans	2015	3	2016	9	6
Carr	36	Raiders	2014	3	2015	7	4
Winston	1	Buccaneers	2015	6	2016	9	3
Manuel	16	Bills	2013	6	2014	9	3
Mahomes	10	Chiefs	2017	10	2018	12	2
Bortles	3	Jaguars	2014	3	2015	5	2
Tannehill	8	Dolphins	2012	7	2013	8	1
Newton	1	Panthers	2011	6	2012	7	1
Dalton	35	Bengals	2011	9	2012	10	1
Luck	1	Colts	2012	11	2013	11	0
Mayfield	1	Browns	2018	7	2019	?	0
Darnold	3	Jets	2018	4	2019	?	0
Allen	7	Bills	2018	6	2019	?	0
Rosen	10	Cardinals	2018	3	2019	?	0
Jackson	32	Ravens	2018	10	2019	?	0
Glennon	73	Buccaneers	2013	4	2014	2	-2
Bridgewater	32	Vikings	2014	11	2015	8	-3
Gabbert	10	Jaguars	2011	5	2012	2	-3
Smith	39	Jets	2013	8	2014	4	-4
Griffen	2	Redskins	2012	10	2013	3	-7

 

Notes:

Watson only started 6 games his rookie year.

Jackson 7 games.

Kizer got traded to the Packers after year 1 so he is irrelevant to the discussion.

 

If you see any other inconsistencies/mistakes I will edit this post accordingly.

Mahomes played 1 game in 2017.  He shouldn't be on this list.

[JESSEFEFFER]

48 minutes ago, BillsWilson said:

Mahomes played 1 game in 2017.  He shouldn't be on this list.

And he wasn't because he did not fit the profile.  He was not 1 of the 14 considered because the Chiefs were not sub .500 in 2017 and he did not play enough games that year.  I included all the higher drafted QBs since the CBA began in 2011 for completeness but found only 14 of them meeting the criteria I laid out in the post for purposes of the over/under 6.5 wins betting line.  I went back and bolded the 14 names that fit the criteria.

Edited June 28, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER

[Punching Bag]

20 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

If he has 850 yards rushing, I don't think that will mean he's improved.

 

If he has 850 yards rushing because teams are double covering 2 WRs and there are a lot of underneath safe yards it is okay as long he understands that there may be players who take cheap shots he was to watch out for.

15 hours ago, K-9 said:

Per the bold, good point. I wonder how often teams are gonna turn their back on him. He killed teams on scrambles vs. man coverage last year. Especially after he came back from injury. And I think that was with Dabolls’s blessing, too. Our sieve of an OL got him beat up before his injury and I think Daboll told him if it breaks down early, GTF out of there and go. And our added speed at wideout is gonna give defenses more to think about in terms of man to man coverage as well.

 

That means defenses will be limited on what he can do which is a good thing if they are unwilling to turn their backs on him.

[Punching Bag]

15 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

..if, IF we want him as our long term guy, he needs to temper his tendencies and be more selective....850 yards rushing is NOT a viable "long term health plan"......Brady has miraculously steered clear of QB headhunters for YEARS.....no need for Josh to test their mettle.....

 

Yes he has because he has got powder puff treatment by Zebras and it is unlikely he will get same treatment inside the pocket.

 

In fact I'd like on running plays he used Zebras as picks and if some get run over by defenders even the better.

15 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

That was the TT strategy that he couldn't beat, because he is so conservative throwing

 

TT was not timid in beginning and often you see this with young QBs - they become timid because coaches get too cautious.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

The one thing that may slow down Allen's development is all the churn on the O-line.  Likely during camp will different players going ion and out, then even once the line is set will take some time to jell.  The 2 things that will help some are the most experienced guy is their center so he may help settle things down and excluding Ford, the rest are vets with quite few years under their belt.  But still overall, may take some time and that could hurt Allen some the first few games.

[row_33]

3 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

The one thing that may slow down Allen's development is all the churn on the O-line.  Likely during camp will different players going ion and out, then even once the line is set will take some time to jell.  The 2 things that will help some are the most experienced guy is their center so he may help settle things down and excluding Ford, the rest are vets with quite few years under their belt.  But still overall, may take some time and that could hurt Allen some the first few games.

 

you need a team to be good to get anywhere

 

but many great QBs had NOTHING to help them out for years in their career, so this excuse gets thin quick

 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

3 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

The one thing that may slow down Allen's development is all the churn on the O-line.  Likely during camp will different players going ion and out, then even once the line is set will take some time to jell.  The 2 things that will help some are the most experienced guy is their center so he may help settle things down and excluding Ford, the rest are vets with quite few years under their belt.  But still overall, may take some time and that could hurt Allen some the first few games.

 

 

...."in and out" is a tough strategy on the OL...they need to jell as a complete unit.....although I don't like it, the ONLY way it could remotely work is if you had "A" Duo-left side PAIR with "B" Duo-Left side PAIR as backup(left because of Allen's blind side)....historically and from a HOF perspective, we talk about Hutch/Jones or Shell/Upshaw are legendary pairs...I'm NOT discounting the relevance or importance of the right side, but just my opinion that the blind side takes precedent.....

[LSHMEAB]

Christian Ponder won 10 games? That CAN'T be right.

 

What this chart demonstrates is that if a quarterback is going to be a franchise guy, he's probably going to start playing well in his second season. I'll grant that Allen is "raw" and the offensive personnel is still subpar, but I expect to see marked improvement across the board if he's the guy. 

 

There have been exceptions to this rule; Drew Brees comes to mind. But GENERALLY, a franchise QB is going to look like one at a young age.

[machine gun kelly]

716 and Jeff, well written and researched takes so thanks.  I couldn’t agree more with a second year, more comfortability with two of the WR in Foster and Jones, Plus al of the other pieces, including beyond offense, Oliver wreaking havoc on the interior of opposing QB’s, should give us shorter fields on average ( a boy can dream Oliver or Hughes sacking Brady three times in the first half. In September).

 

i don’t remember if Allen went to a school that  wouldn’t let their players go to minicamps until after the semester or not.  This is going to be a fun year.

 

Im the eternal optimist as many of you have said to me, and still wanting to see 10-6, and one playoff win.  That would be a great year while Father Time keeps ticking away at Brady.  Lastly, we have an extra $22 mil in cap space, and with likely cuts will climb to $33 mil, plus another $10 mil cap increase, to extend the one year prove it deals we made this year in free agency.  The future looks bright. 500 -700 rushing yards from Allen and 3500 yards passing is conceivable.

 

Have a great Sunday as we all wait for training camp and jealous I can’t be with you at the open practices.  

[Boca BIlls]

On 6/28/2019 at 4:36 PM, row_33 said:

 

he should be learning to stay in the pocket a little longer this year, you are going to have to get used to getting hit while being back there

 

it might look worse coming in just after an all-time panic-stricken-run-for-your-life QB at the helm in Tyrod

 

 

 

 

 

He doesn't have to learn it. You saw last year he stayed in the pocket as long as the poor guy could. Time he took bad hits was him sitting there trying to find a guy open. Crazy his two worst hits camen in the pocket, were both completions. The one in Houston that took him out of the game, and the one I thought he was going to get killed in the Jags game when he threw the amazing TD pass to Foster.

Edited June 30, 2019 by Boca BIlls

[Nextmanup]

When the OP writes that he would not be expecting a sophomore slump from Josh Allen, does he base this on anything other than simply being a Bills fan?

 

 

[row_33]

5 hours ago, Boca BIlls said:

He doesn't have to learn it. You saw last year he stayed in the pocket as long as the poor guy could. Time he took bad hits was him sitting there trying to find a guy open. Crazy his two worst hits camen in the pocket, were both completions. The one in Houston that took him out of the game, and the one I thought he was going to get killed in the Jags game when he threw the amazing TD pass to Foster.

 

he ran for his life faster than Tyrod

 

that's understandable for a rook,

 

he is going to get righteously clocked early in the season as teams KNOW he runs for his life very quickly

 

 

[Boca BIlls]

39 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

he ran for his life faster than Tyrod

 

that's understandable for a rook,

 

he is going to get righteously clocked early in the season as teams KNOW he runs for his life very quickly

 

 

Tyrod had an offensive line... Allen didn't even have a starting center.

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

When the OP writes that he would not be expecting a sophomore slump from Josh Allen, does he base this on anything other than simply being a Bills fan?

 

 

Yes I base this on 26+ years of coaching and scouting and research

 

I HATED the Allen pick on draft night. I said I was going to drive my car off a bridge

 

I thought he had tremendous potential but wanted a more polished QB

 

But I am not stuck in the past.. 

 

I reevaluate all the time and I saw a MARKED improvement in post injury Josh from pre injury

 

He was more confident, decisive and accurate. I believe the arrow is pointing up and will continue that way this season

[JESSEFEFFER]

On ‎6‎/‎27‎/‎2019 at 5:18 PM, JESSEFEFFER said:

I originally did this in consideration of the 6.5 over/under line for the Bills season but it also illustrates an important idea opposed to the myth to which you refer.  Big changes in win totals for teams having a starting QB  going into year 2 on their rookie deal are trending.  The basic thinking would be:

 

1) Rookie QBs are not fully equipped to win in year 1 and their team's record will suffer fot it.  The highly drafted QBs almost always play in year 1 but teams do not fully prepare them to do so.  It's like they are afraid to let the veterans on the team see the starting job handed to a rookie without them "earning" it, therefore the foolish effort to give the Petermans and McCarron's of the NFL the bulk of the reps.

 

2) QBs usually have multiple advantages going into year 2 as the starter that were not available to them in year 1 and they should be noticeably improved.  The entire offseason, usually within the same offense as year 1, gives them many additional months to hone their craft.

 

3) Their relatively low salary cap numbers are compatible with building the roster around them. 

 

Year 2 improvement is almost a certainty for both the QB and the team.  Teams having a sub .500 record where a rookie played at least 8 games went  12 of 14 at improving their year 2 record at least 1 game (bolded names in the table.)  That elminates Mahomes, Luck, Dalton, Bridgewater and Griffen from consideration.  Glennon and Gabbert were the only over/under "losers."  That's 8 of 14 (excluding EJ) with at least a 3 game improvement and 7 of 14 with a 4 or more win improvement.  So screw the sophomore jinx crap and dare to think big.  A 4 game improvement gets the Bills in the playoffs and 5 or more threatens the Patriots for the divison.  These kinds of improvements have been happening almost every year since the current CBA was in place.  Why not the Bills in 2019?

 

QB	Drafted #	Team	Year 1	Wins	Year 2	Wins	Δ
Goff	1	Rams	2016	4	2017	11	7
Trubisky	2	Bears	2017	5	2018	12	7
Watson	12	Texans	2017	4	2018	11	7
Ponder	12	Vikings	2011	3	2012	10	7
Wentz	2	Eagles	2016	7	2017	13	6
Mariotta	2	Titans	2015	3	2016	9	6
Carr	36	Raiders	2014	3	2015	7	4
Winston	1	Buccaneers	2015	6	2016	9	3
Manuel	16	Bills	2013	6	2014	9	3
Mahomes	10	Chiefs	2017	10	2018	12	2
Bortles	3	Jaguars	2014	3	2015	5	2
Tannehill	8	Dolphins	2012	7	2013	8	1
Newton	1	Panthers	2011	6	2012	7	1
Dalton	35	Bengals	2011	9	2012	10	1
Luck	1	Colts	2012	11	2013	11	0
Mayfield	1	Browns	2018	7	2019	?	0
Darnold	3	Jets	2018	4	2019	?	0
Allen	7	Bills	2018	6	2019	?	0
Rosen	10	Cardinals	2018	3	2019	?	0
Jackson	32	Ravens	2018	10	2019	?	0
Glennon	73	Buccaneers	2013	4	2014	2	-2
Bridgewater	32	Vikings	2014	11	2015	8	-3
Gabbert	10	Jaguars	2011	5	2012	2	-3
Smith	39	Jets	2013	8	2014	4	-4
Griffen	2	Redskins	2012	10	2013	3	-7

 

Notes:

Watson only started 6 games his rookie year.

Jackson 7 games.

Kizer got traded to the Packers after year 1 so he is irrelevant to the discussion.

 

If you see any other inconsistencies/mistakes I will edit this post accordingly.

 

This tweet is of a similar theme, just presented in terms of a year 1 vs. year 2 win%.  Betting the over on the 6.5 over/under bet looks historically solid and there is no trend of a sophomore slump for highly drafted QBs in their 2nd year.  

 

 

 

Warren Sharp

 

✔ @SharpFootball

 

 

As we see Josh Allen deal after watching Sam Darnold dominate last night, a reminder:

Top-15 draft pick QB since 2012:
• As rookies: 45-70 (39%)
• In year two: 97-56 (63%)

Increased record is the result of better stats: higher YPA, better TD:INT ratio, completion rate & rtg.

 

362

7:40 PM - Aug 16, 2019

Twitter Ads info and privacy

 

80 people are talking about this

[JESSEFEFFER]

I could be wrong, but both of these would suggest that a 3 or 4 win improvement is a standard expectation for the team that starts a 2nd year QB that meets the criteria-- high draft pick (top 15.)  Assuming injury doesn't play into this, it might be a bad sign for said QBs future if his team doesn't show that kind of improvement from year 1 to year 2.

[Big Turk]

On 6/27/2019 at 5:18 PM, JESSEFEFFER said:

I originally did this in consideration of the 6.5 over/under line for the Bills season but it also illustrates an important idea opposed to the myth to which you refer.  Big changes in win totals for teams having a starting QB  going into year 2 on their rookie deal are trending.  The basic thinking would be:

 

1) Rookie QBs are not fully equipped to win in year 1 and their team's record will suffer fot it.  The highly drafted QBs almost always play in year 1 but teams do not fully prepare them to do so.  It's like they are afraid to let the veterans on the team see the starting job handed to a rookie without them "earning" it, therefore the foolish effort to give the Petermans and McCarron's of the NFL the bulk of the reps.

 

2) QBs usually have multiple advantages going into year 2 as the starter that were not available to them in year 1 and they should be noticeably improved.  The entire offseason, usually within the same offense as year 1, gives them many additional months to hone their craft.

 

3) Their relatively low salary cap numbers are compatible with building the roster around them. 

 

Year 2 improvement is almost a certainty for both the QB and the team.  Teams having a sub .500 record where a rookie played at least 8 games went  12 of 14 at improving their year 2 record at least 1 game (bolded names in the table.)  That elminates Mahomes, Luck, Dalton, Bridgewater and Griffen from consideration.  Glennon and Gabbert were the only over/under "losers."  That's 8 of 14 (excluding EJ) with at least a 3 game improvement and 7 of 14 with a 4 or more win improvement.  So screw the sophomore jinx crap and dare to think big.  A 4 game improvement gets the Bills in the playoffs and 5 or more threatens the Patriots for the divison.  These kinds of improvements have been happening almost every year since the current CBA was in place.  Why not the Bills in 2019?

 

QB	Drafted #	Team	Year 1	Wins	Year 2	Wins	Δ
Goff	1	Rams	2016	4	2017	11	7
Trubisky	2	Bears	2017	5	2018	12	7
Watson	12	Texans	2017	4	2018	11	7
Ponder	12	Vikings	2011	3	2012	10	7
Wentz	2	Eagles	2016	7	2017	13	6
Mariotta	2	Titans	2015	3	2016	9	6
Carr	36	Raiders	2014	3	2015	7	4
Winston	1	Buccaneers	2015	6	2016	9	3
Manuel	16	Bills	2013	6	2014	9	3
Mahomes	10	Chiefs	2017	10	2018	12	2
Bortles	3	Jaguars	2014	3	2015	5	2
Tannehill	8	Dolphins	2012	7	2013	8	1
Newton	1	Panthers	2011	6	2012	7	1
Dalton	35	Bengals	2011	9	2012	10	1
Luck	1	Colts	2012	11	2013	11	0
Mayfield	1	Browns	2018	7	2019	?	0
Darnold	3	Jets	2018	4	2019	?	0
Allen	7	Bills	2018	6	2019	?	0
Rosen	10	Cardinals	2018	3	2019	?	0
Jackson	32	Ravens	2018	10	2019	?	0
Glennon	73	Buccaneers	2013	4	2014	2	-2
Bridgewater	32	Vikings	2014	11	2015	8	-3
Gabbert	10	Jaguars	2011	5	2012	2	-3
Smith	39	Jets	2013	8	2014	4	-4
Griffen	2	Redskins	2012	10	2013	3	-7

 

Notes:

Watson only started 6 games his rookie year.

Jackson 7 games.

Kizer got traded to the Packers after year 1 so he is irrelevant to the discussion.

 

If you see any other inconsistencies/mistakes I will edit this post accordingly.

 

I agree and I think McDermott is a damn good coach who will potentially get coach of the year considerations this year.

Edited August 19, 2019 by matter2003

[Chandler#81]

On 6/27/2019 at 5:57 PM, njbuff said:

The biggest benefit for Allen is that he will be in the same system going into his second year.

 

And he did alright as a rookie, considering the circumstances surrounding him last year, his rookie year.

For me, Allen starting so many games last year is the best thing that could have happened by a team in total turmoil at the position. Much has been written how McBeane screwed up EVERYTHING by trading away McCarron and handing the reins to Pickpeterman. Josh wasn’t supposed to see the field all year, relegated to 3rd string reps in Camp. Obviously, he flashed A LOT, but also exposed a number of deficiencies in his game that wouldn’t have been seen otherwise until this year. Thus, he was able to work hard on these aspects and his growth into the teams leader was stepped up significantly. 

 

Did McBeane screw the pooch with the QB debacle last season? YouBetCha!

Is the team in a far better position this year because of it. YouBetCha!

[JESSEFEFFER]

42 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

For me, Allen starting so many games last year is the best thing that could have happened by a team in total turmoil at the position. Much has been written how McBeane screwed up EVERYTHING by trading away McCarron and handing the reins to Pickpeterman. Josh wasn’t supposed to see the field all year, relegated to 3rd string reps in Camp. Obviously, he flashed A LOT, but also exposed a number of deficiencies in his game that wouldn’t have been seen otherwise until this year. Thus, he was able to work hard on these aspects and his growth into the teams leader was stepped up significantly. 

 

Did McBeane screw the pooch with the QB debacle last season? YouBetCha!

Is the team in a far better position this year because of it. YouBetCha!

 

This is a trust the process problem and result.  If you want to make the rookie QB earn his spot in the pecking order (process) he has to compete with at least one other.  If his competing with two others, then they are not doing everything they can to get the rookie prepared to play (problem.)  I think the mistake that Beane acknowledged was not getting Derek Anderson in the room when they knew McCarron was being cut.

 

Allowing the rookie QB to grow through even more adversity is the process result.

 

If they had started Josh from the beginning and he struggled through games like he did with SD and GB, the rest of the players would be thinking/saying why not play Peterman?  He looked great in practice and preseason.  He gives us a better chance to win.  As it played out, when Josh struggled no one was thinking that.  That is a great process result, imo.

[eball]

31 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

For me, Allen starting so many games last year is the best thing that could have happened by a team in total turmoil at the position. Much has been written how McBeane screwed up EVERYTHING by trading away McCarron and handing the reins to Pickpeterman. Josh wasn’t supposed to see the field all year, relegated to 3rd string reps in Camp. Obviously, he flashed A LOT, but also exposed a number of deficiencies in his game that wouldn’t have been seen otherwise until this year. Thus, he was able to work hard on these aspects and his growth into the teams leader was stepped up significantly. 

 

Did McBeane screw the pooch with the QB debacle last season? YouBetCha!

Is the team in a far better position this year because of it. YouBetCha!

 

The only good thing you can say about how the QB room was managed last season is that they made sure there were no unreasonable expectations for Allen.  I agree that looking back, all of the experience he gained last season is invaluable, and I do think Josh will be farther along entering this season than if he had held a clipboard all of last year.

[DJB]

On 6/27/2019 at 2:18 PM, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

 

QB	Drafted #	Team	Year 1	Wins	Year 2	Wins	Δ
Goff	1	Rams	2016	4	2017	11	7
Trubisky	2	Bears	2017	5	2018	12	7
Watson	12	Texans	2017	4	2018	11	7
Ponder	12	Vikings	2011	3	2012	10	7
Wentz	2	Eagles	2016	7	2017	13	6
Mariotta	2	Titans	2015	3	2016	9	6
Carr	36	Raiders	2014	3	2015	7	4
Winston	1	Buccaneers	2015	6	2016	9	3
Manuel	16	Bills	2013	6	2014	9	3
Mahomes	10	Chiefs	2017	10	2018	12	2
Bortles	3	Jaguars	2014	3	2015	5	2
Tannehill	8	Dolphins	2012	7	2013	8	1
Newton	1	Panthers	2011	6	2012	7	1
Dalton	35	Bengals	2011	9	2012	10	1
Luck	1	Colts	2012	11	2013	11	0
Mayfield	1	Browns	2018	7	2019	?	0
Darnold	3	Jets	2018	4	2019	?	0
Allen	7	Bills	2018	6	2019	?	0
Rosen	10	Cardinals	2018	3	2019	?	0
Jackson	32	Ravens	2018	10	2019	?	0
Glennon	73	Buccaneers	2013	4	2014	2	-2
Bridgewater	32	Vikings	2014	11	2015	8	-3
Gabbert	10	Jaguars	2011	5	2012	2	-3
Smith	39	Jets	2013	8	2014	4	-4
Griffen	2	Redskins	2012	10	2013	3	-7

 

Notes:

Watson only started 6 games his rookie year.

Jackson 7 games.

Kizer got traded to the Packers after year 1 so he is irrelevant to the discussion.

 

If you see any other inconsistencies/mistakes I will edit this post accordingly.

 

Nice work on the graph so thanks for that.

 

Looking at it it appears that in my estimation to be considered a “franchise” QB the second year wins benchmark looks like 10 wins. 

 

The only anomaly appears to be Dalton but he also had one of the highest win marks year one indicating a strong Bengals team regardless. 

 

Newton is the other exception to the rule if you consider him a franchise guy as he didn’t meet the ten win benchmark year two. Personally I don’t as he is pretty terrible at throwing the ball and more running QB than throwing one. 

 

Ten wins by Allen this year will be huge and hopefully cement himself as a franchise QB.

Edited August 19, 2019 by DJB

[TigerJ]

The theory is that defensive coordinators have no tape on rookie QBs and that makes it harder to defend against their strengths or take advantage of their weaknesses.  That's probably a dubious theory to begin with because a rookie QB would have to be really amazing in some area to throw a defensive coordinator that much or really terrible in others to enable a DC to neutralize him.  Anyway, by their second year, there is ample tape on a QB so DCs are going to be able to more effectively game plan.  I don't think many believe it's typical for a QB to get worse in his sophomore campaign.  

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen dead last in PFF’s 2019 NFL starting quarterback rankings

 

Like Rosen, Allen had a rough supporting cast as a rookie, though his uneven play resembled what he showed at Wyoming. He finished with the No. 25 overall grade at 65.3, showing off the expected big arm that led to the No. 12 percentage of big-time throws, but also the poor decision-making and inaccuracy that led to a No. 30 ranking at avoiding turnover-worthy plays. There are similarities to Lamar Jackson as they both have throw-for-throw accuracy concerns (Allen ranked 33rd out of 35 qualifiers after ranking poorly in college), but there are avenues for future success. Allen’s best bet is continuing to make the big plays down the field while complementing with the rushing ability that saw him rush for a league-high 508 yards on scrambles while posting the No. 4 rushing grade among quarterbacks, at 81.4. A new group of playmakers may give Allen a few more open throws to help with the accuracy issues, and he looks like a quarterback who will struggle with week-to-week consistency but will put together monster stretches of play that will make life difficult on opposing defenses.

Edited August 19, 2019 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[Ralonzo]

 

8 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

Pffffff...

 

 

So, Rosen is dead last statistically in 2018 and showed nothing to give us hope. But we'll put him ahead of Allen who actually charted some big-play ability behind just about as lousy an OL and who can hurt you with his legs which is why we ranked Lamar so much higher than either.

[JESSEFEFFER]

This is the product of one writer for PFF but it is odd that PFF (I think it was them) had Josh as their #14 over the last half of the season.  I just don't see how having him in a group with Keenum and Flacco makes any sense.

[jletha]

On 6/28/2019 at 2:56 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

He helped 2 qbs who weren’t highly thought of (they won’t have been at NDSU and Wyoming if they were) and helped them develop into top 10 picks.  I’d argue that is the definition of good coaching.  

 

Hopefully after this year, we can stop with all the excuse making for Allen, right?

Well Carson Wentz wasnt even the starter when Craig Bohl was the coach so while Im sure he had a hand in developing him, Carson did the majority of his developing on his own/after he left for Wyoming. Allen was developed under him though but everyone agreed that Josh was extremely raw as a passer and his main draw was his high ceiling because of his size, athleticiscm and arm strength, none of that is a product of coaching. So Im not gonna anoint Craig Bohl as some QB magician. I think its probably coincidence more than anything. 

 

Look at Lincoln Riley. He just developed two back-to-back #1 overall picks.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

34 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

So, Rosen is dead last statistically in 2018 and showed nothing to give us hope. But we'll put him ahead of Allen who actually charted some big-play ability behind just about as lousy an OL and who can hurt you with his legs which is why we ranked Lamar so much higher than either.

all he has to do is use the new OL/WR corps to his advantage. make better decisions with the ball rather then run and help lead the team to wins and it will/should shut all the critics up.

 

sounds simple and will be a lot of work but I have confidence he will have a much better 2nd season.

Edited August 19, 2019 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[NoHuddleKelly12]

5 hours ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

all he has to do is use the new OL/WR corps to his advantage. make better decisions with the ball rather then run and help lead the team to wins and it will/should shut all the critics up.

 

sounds simple and will be a lot of work but I have confidence he will have a much better 2nd season.

Agree totally. Going 9/11 against the Panthers including 5/5 targets to Beasley, bodes well for that prediction already, at least in terms of his mindset! (I know, I know, preseason--but I'd rather be trying to downplay good preseason play than justify a poor showing)  

[C.Biscuit97]

5 hours ago, jletha said:

Well Carson Wentz wasnt even the starter when Craig Bohl was the coach so while Im sure he had a hand in developing him, Carson did the majority of his developing on his own/after he left for Wyoming. Allen was developed under him though but everyone agreed that Josh was extremely raw as a passer and his main draw was his high ceiling because of his size, athleticiscm and arm strength, none of that is a product of coaching. So Im not gonna anoint Craig Bohl as some QB magician. I think its probably coincidence more than anything. 

 

Look at Lincoln Riley. He just developed two back-to-back #1 overall picks.

Bohl became Wyoming’s head coach in 2015.  Wentz was his starting qb at NDSU in 2014.  https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/carson-wentz-1.html

 

and I stand by my point.  Developing two top 10 pick qbs at NDSU and Wyoming is amazing and shows the myth that Allen received bad coaching. 

 

And if Allen has a sophomore slump, he might be out of the nfl.  

Edited August 19, 2019 by C.Biscuit97

[jletha]

25 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Bohl became Wyoming’s head coach in 2015.  Wentz was his starting qb at NDSU in 2014.  https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/carson-wentz-1.html

 

and I stand by my point.  Developing two top 10 pick qbs at NDSU and Wyoming is amazing and shows the myth that Allen received bad coaching. 

 

And if Allen has a sophomore slump, he might be out of the nfl.  

Bohl was in Wyoming in 2014. But that doesnt matter really IMO. Yes Bohl certainly played a part in getting both of them drafted into the NFL. He certainly isnt a schlub but Im also not going to call Bohl anything spectacular either. I think that fact that Allen was so raw as a prospect coming out shows that the level of coaching he received was good but not the best. I think better coach would have won more games. Good recruiting tool for Bohl though

Edited August 19, 2019 by jletha