Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh

[K-9]

13 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Same thing with Aaron Rodgers.  I think the people who don’t like the Allen pick are the people who go with what history tells us.  Allen got drafted because of physical tools rather than what he actually did.  Those guys terrify me. Back to guys like Hackenburg.  

 

And can we stop acting like his college coach wasn’t Carson Wentz’?  Sorry, I’m going to have high expectations for the highest drafted qb in Bills history.  

Allen got drafted as much for his aptitude for the game and other intangible as he did his physical tools. 

 

Per the bold text, I have no idea who you’re addressing or what you mean by the comment. 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, K-9 said:

Allen got drafted as much for his aptitude for the game and other intangible as he did his physical tools. 

 

Per the bold text, I have no idea who you’re addressing or what you mean by the comment. 

You’re acting like he didn’t have a college coach with a recent history of developing a top 5 nfl qb. 

3 minutes ago, billybob71 said:

And hopefully Josh doesnt cry and throw a tantrum if he ever loses a SB?

I would be fine with Allen doing this after his MVP season. 

[HOUSE]

[Doc]

18 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Same thing with Aaron Rodgers.  I think the people who don’t like the Allen pick are the people who go with what history tells us.  Allen got drafted because of physical tools rather than what he actually did.  Those guys terrify me. Back to guys like Hackenburg. 

 

He got drafted for his physical tools and because of how he played in the Senior Bowl.

[billybob71]

5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You’re acting like he didn’t have a college coach with a recent history of developing a top 5 nfl qb. 

I would be fine with Allen doing this after his MVP season. 

And then proceed to be very average the rest of his career

[John from Riverside]

23 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Same thing with Aaron Rodgers.  I think the people who don’t like the Allen pick are the people who go with what history tells us.  Allen got drafted because of physical tools rather than what he actually did.  Those guys terrify me. Back to guys like Hackenburg.  

 

And can we stop acting like his college coach wasn’t Carson Wentz’?  Sorry, I’m going to have high expectations for the highest drafted qb in Bills history.  

Are you thinking that others dont have high expectations of Josh Allen?

3 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

He got drafted for his physical tools and because of how he played in the Senior Bowl.

I might add that his play in the year he had prior to his senior year (the year where he actually had a little bit of talent at Wyoming)

 

Ppl tend to overlook that

[K-9]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You’re acting like he didn’t have a college coach with a recent history of developing a top 5 nfl qb. 

I would be fine with Allen doing this after his MVP season. 

WTF!  Where the flying F do you get this crap? 

 

I’m acting like someone who knows the difference between a scrawny, undeveloped QB entering college and Cam Newton. Period. Nothing more. So I’d appreciate it if you don’t involve me in some bull crap narrative you have with other posters. 

 

Regarding Wentz, he was also light years ahead if Allen as a prospect entering college, too. And that is rally saying something considering Wentz wasn’t lighting up the recruitment boards, either. 

 

It’s interesting that the same college coach with the “recent history of developing a top 5 nfl qb” saw enough in Allen to make him his QB and develop him enough to make him a top 7 pick in the draft as well. 

 

 

[Buddy Hix]

Did Allen really do anything to alleviate the questions scouts and pundits had about his ability last season? 

 

I think Allen showed more athleticism and leadership than I expected but I doubt those register with the scouts who doubt his throwing accuracy and ability to make reads.

 

Despite a lot of fans claiming we got our guy, the jury is still out. We should all have a much better idea after this season. Here’s to hoping.

[John from Riverside]

22 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

If Allen turns out better than a heisman trophy and national champ; rookie passing record having; MVP, and SB runner up , he will be a borderline HOFer.  No pressure Josh!

 

cam newton average at best says Billybob ?

I honestly would take Cam Newton level type QB....I think Cam gets a bad wrap...he has accomplished things we would love to have a a bill QB and it feels like he does it with VERY little help.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

His basis for his opinion is his website's algorithm called QBASE:

 

https://www.footballo:utsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/qbase-2018

 

According to that metric, Josh Allen has a 37.3% chance of becoming an adequate starter or better. Which is why I don't understand his relentless pessimism of Allen's chances. A better than 1 in 3 chance of becoming at least an adequate starter is really not all that unlikely. So even by the numbers his own website uses, Schatz's opinion doesn't make sense. Does he trust his own numbers or not? Imagine rolling a die and ridiculing the idea that a 1 or a 2 could be rolled. That is essentially what he is doing. Unless he doesn't trust his own algorithm which would be weird.

Thanks.   I had forgotten about QBASE.  I never liked QBASE.

 

Outsiders is good at what it set out to do: crunch the available raw data and film evaluations of whether any particular player did what he was supposed to do on any particular down and distance and come up with a ranking of how effective the player is in comparison to other players at the same position.   They also do it for teams, offenses, defenses.   In my opinion, it works.   But it always was intended to be backward looking, not forward looking.  They don't have any tools that have been demonstrated to project future performance, and that's what QBASE does.  

 

Schatz isn't a football guy; he succeeded by being a number cruncher.  He's entitled to his opinion, but it's only an opinion, like everyone else's opinion.    I suspect much of his opinion is driven by Allen's DYAR; if so, I think he's letting past performance become his determinant of potential, and that doesn't make sense for a rookie qb.  

[MrEpsYtown]

What a Schat head! 

[billybob71]

7 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I honestly would take Cam Newton level type QB....I think Cam gets a bad wrap...he has accomplished things we would love to have a a bill QB and it feels like he does it with VERY little help.

Oh boy please don't subject us to 8 years of overrated and average qb play

[K-9]

2 minutes ago, Buddy Hix said:

Did Allen really do anything to alleviate the questions scouts and pundits had about his ability last season? 

 

I think Allen showed more athleticism and leadership than I expected but I doubt those register with the scouts who doubt his throwing accuracy and ability to make reads.

 

Despite a lot of fans claiming we got our guy, the jury is still out. We should all have a much better idea after this season. Here’s to hoping.

Of course the jury is still out. I personally don’t know anyone who doesn’t think that. By the same token, it’s wrong to proclaim he’s going to be a bust, too. 

 

While his accuracy is and has been a fair point of criticism, his ability to make reads has never been an issue. He blew people away with his acumen during the scouting process leading up to the draft. Of course, doing that in an off field setting vs. live action with big dudes trying to kill you within seconds of the snap is an entirely different animal. But I’ve never met a rookie QB that didn’t have that question applied to him. 

 

Finally, and this isn’t directed at you, but there is a good reason to be excited about his prospects. And while there may be equal concern about his potential downside, it gets pretty tiresome having it thrown in your face ever time somebody has something positive to say about Allen as a developing prospect. 

 

 

[LSHMEAB]

Objective analytics types see a guy who struggled with completion percentage in college and struggled (mightily) with completion percentage in the NFL. There is no way for a QB to succeed without getting near 60%. You're leaving far too many yards on the field as an offense when that's the case.

 

I'm fairly confident I watched as much, if not more, NFL tape than Schatz unless he happened to watch every snap including the last 10 minutes of the Packers game. I see a guy who's strengths just MIGHT be enough to make up for the accuracy/precision/whatever issues. If he's able to become "competent" in the short game; able to recognize where to go and when and improve ball placement, he can absolutely be a franchise QB. I'm not personally convinced he can, but that is the question. We know he can fling it. We know he can run.

 

I will say that these guys don't have some deep seething hate for Josh Allen, the man, as some seem to believe. They are basing their opinion on raw analytical data and projecting how that compares to the successful NFL QB's. Josh Allen IS one of those test studies in eyes/ears vs analytics. I had zero confidence going into his rookie year. At this point, I'm far more optimistic. Not convinced, but willing to hope.

[John from Riverside]

2 minutes ago, billybob71 said:

Oh boy please don'O subject us to 8 years of overrated and average qb play

I wont because he is not

[Doc Brown]

56 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Same thing with Aaron Rodgers.  I think the people who don’t like the Allen pick are the people who go with what history tells us.  Allen got drafted because of physical tools rather than what he actually did.  Those guys terrify me. Back to guys like Hackenburg.  

 

And can we stop acting like his college coach wasn’t Carson Wentz’?  Sorry, I’m going to have high expectations for the highest drafted qb in Bills history.  

Yup.  A lot of people on this board were thinking Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield in that order praying we don't pick Allen.  At least I was.  I'm more cautiously optomistic about him now but far from convinced.

41 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Allen got drafted as much for his aptitude for the game and other intangible as he did his physical tools. 

 

Per the bold text, I have no idea who you’re addressing or what you mean by the comment. 

Craig Bohl I believe.

Edited May 25, 2019 by Doc Brown

[K-9]

6 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Yup.  A lot of people on this board were thinking Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield in that order praying we don't pick Allen.  At least I was.  I'm more cautiously optomistic about him now but far from convinced.

Craig Bohl I believe.

Yeah, I kind of figured that out afterwards. Suggesting Carson Wentz was his college coach threw me a bit. After I got done laughing, it became clear.

[Doc Brown]

Just now, K-9 said:

Yeah, I kind of figured that out afterwards. Suggesting Carson Wentz was his college coach threw me a bit. After I got done laughing, it became clear.

The difference between Wentz' and Wentz's is does lead to confusion.

[billsredneck1]

4 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Aaron was on WGR yesterday with an interesting position on Josh.  He still does not "see" him as an NFL starting QB.  Says he would like to see Bills fans rewarded but does not see Josh as likely to produce it.  If I were doing the interview I'd have asked him about the basis for this, is it the numbers or some actual film review?  IIRC, this was his predraft assessment based on his Wyoming stats and their  correlation to historical projection and he's not bending it based on year 1 in the NFL. 

 

Assuming he is still focused on the numbers, I would have asked him what effect that the following would have on his numbers:

 

1) being the leader in depth to target

2) being amongst the top in dropped passes and throwaways/spikes

3) being near the top in throws under pressure

 

I saw some Twitter chatter started by Bills reporters Sal Capaccio and Ryan Talbot.  Here's the link to the latters' story:

 

newyorkupstate " I-do-not-see-a-nfl-starting-qb-in-buffalo-bills-josh-allen-says-espns-aaron-schatz"

 

I appreciate facts in any discussion and numbers are facts.  But discussions need facts connected to meaning and context.  It looks like if the Bills have a decent season, he already has an alternate explanation as to why it happened.

 

I think Josh will be one of the alltime "scouts eyes and ears" vs. "raw analytics" cases in the NFL.  Someone gets to tell the other side "I told you so."

 

 

 

 

 

i apologize for not going through all the pages yet but, i think i heard this today on wgr....or maybe it was a similar take from a booker...but.....

 

i have been wrong before. i liked rob johnson....i liked jp losman...i liked trent, but all went wrong. i have always attributed it to the billsy way of ruining young qbs.....and i think that theory has merit. when ej came in and was forced to start, this may just be another example of this, but i just didn't think the kid had it between the ears.

 

now here i am again being hopeful that josh will be our next franchise qb...a cross between elway and kelly. i am going to hang onto those hopes because for the 1st time in decades, i feel we have the gm and coaching staff that will make him that. i pray that i'm right. i just think about the last 4 yrs. with whaley/brandon/marrone and rex.

 

we're not going back there. i believe in this staff and josh allen. 10-6 at least. my biggest and really only fear this year is facing greggo week one on the road. our oline has got to get the nasty working day one.

[reddogblitz]

I have my doubts about Allen too.  He did some good and some bad last year.  You know, like a rookie.

 

some guys start great and fizzle like RG3. Others suck as rookies only to turn out HOF like Peyton.

 

I'll know he's good and can lead a team to the top 1/3rd of the league when he does. Until then TBD.

 

and whatever these yahoos say to get clicks means NOTHING until he proves it on the field which as of yet he has not.

 

The team WAS top 1/3rd the year before he arrived ...

Edited May 26, 2019 by reddogblitz

[Victory Formation]

Well, forgive me for saying so, but I don't see Allen as a refined passer quite yet. He will likely be a running QB year 2. Look, we've added a bazillion RBs, OL and signed Lee freaking Smith to a big fat porkchop of a contract - we are going to be a running team. Allen is more like Michael Vick than he is Tom Brady, deal with it. I care more about the pattern and trajectory of his development. A pattern of reasonable growth as a passer. This guy is raw.

[K-9]

6 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

The difference between Wentz' and Wentz's is does lead to confusion.

Great name for a line of snack food, though. “Hey, pass the Wentz’s.” 

[JESSEFEFFER]

2 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

i apologize for not going through all the pages yet but, i think i heard this today on wgr....or maybe it was a similar take from a booker...but.....

 

i have been wrong before. i liked rob johnson....i liked jp losman...i liked trent, but all went wrong. i have always attributed it to the billsy way of ruining young qbs.....and i think that theory has merit. when ej came in and was forced to start, this may just be another example of this, but i just didn't think the kid had it between the ears.

 

now here i am again being hopeful that josh will be our next franchise qb...a cross between elway and kelly. i am going to hang onto those hopes because for the 1st time in decades, i feel we have the gm and coaching staff that will make him that. i pray that i'm right. i just think about the last 4 yrs. with whaley/brandon/marrone and rex.

 

we're not going back there. i believe in this staff and josh allen. 10-6 at least. my biggest and really only fear this year is facing greggo week one on the road. our oline has got to get the nasty working day one.

Yes you did.  The Saturday hosts had it replayed in its entirety.  I would have had different questions for Schatz and probed why his opinion was unchanged.  There are numbers that support a brighter future than what was projected in 2018 prior to the draft.  Being hopeful is nothing that warrants an apology.

 

Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies. – Andy Dufresne, The Shawshank Redemption

 

[Doc Brown]

Just now, K-9 said:

Great name for a line of snack food, though. “Hey, pass the Wentz’s.” 

Only a 36% chance it will fall on the floor.  Wentz's Pub and Grill has a nice ring to it.

[LSHMEAB]

5 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Yes you did.  The Saturday hosts had it replayed in its entirety.  I would have had different questions for Schatz and probed why his opinion was unchanged.  There are numbers that support a brighter future than what was projected in 2018 prior to the draft.  Being hopeful is nothing that warrants an apology.

 

Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies. – Andy Dufresne, The Shawshank Redemption

 

Let's just HOPE we don't have to wait as Long as Andy for the pay off! Time and pressure I suppose.

[JESSEFEFFER]

Just now, LSHMEAB said:

Let's just HOPE we don't have to wait as Long as Andy for the pay off! Time and pressure I suppose.

 

It depends on when you choose to start the clock.

[billsredneck1]

7 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Yes you did.  The Saturday hosts had it replayed in its entirety.  I would have had different questions for Schatz and probed why his opinion was unchanged.  There are numbers that support a brighter future than what was projected in 2018 prior to the draft.  Being hopeful is nothing that warrants an apology.

 

Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies. – Andy Dufresne, The Shawshank Redemption

 

the guy was so negative on the whole team and portrayed his opinion as that of a bookmaker....i get that but, he just seemed to be lacking that insight to the team, as we all have our ears to the wall everyday. it's ;like he just looked at the roster in today's paper ...or media.  i'd gladly put $100 that the bills kick 6.5 in the ass.  even the jets beat guys don't go as far as he did. welp, i hope his job doesn't depend on his predictions.

 

edit that, i hope it does.

[K-9]

11 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Let's just HOPE we don't have to wait as Long as Andy for the pay off! Time and pressure I suppose.

When it comes to QBs, you want all the time and none of the pressure. 

 

Especially in obvious passing situations. 

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

Seen is the operative word.  Is he looking at his raw stats or is he actually watching him play?  Schopp did not ask him.  The basis for his unchanged view of his projection into the NFL is the most interesting part of the opninion and Schopp let it go unanswered.  Numbers need meaning and context.  

 

Josh's scramble runs were analytically more productive than any other QB's checkdown passes.  No one completes 100% of them for over 10 ypa.

 

Josh's TD runs limited his passing TDs.  Is there any more value to a passing TD than a running TD?

 

The factors listed in the OP absolutely make completion % a lower number.  I would want Schatz to put these into some context (rookie year, depth of target, drops, spikes/throwaways, % throws under pressure.)

 

 

For some background on Aaron Schatz’s predraft QB analysis, here is a thread about that from that time.  It uses QBASE 

 

Here is an older article that explains QBASE. TL/DR: It’s a metric that tries to rate QBs and incorporates adjustments for drops, level of competition, etc.  

 

So let us get right to your argument: That the eye test can show things that metrics can’t.  And that Allen is an example of a player who is actually better than the metrics would show. 

 

First, is metrics the whole picture and is it infallible?  Nope and nope.  When stupidly applied, use of metrics can be truly awful.  It’s a very useful tool, however.  When used correctly metrics can certainly help make better decisions and judgements.  The best users know those gaps and account for them.  The worst blindly follow the numbers. 

 

So so what about Allen?  Well, the metrics have never been remotely good for him.  They don’t point to him having any real success in the NFL.  That’s the rub here.  Fans get ticked off because these people - numbers really - are saying Allen will likely bust.  But something gets missed in that umbrage.  These are predictive percentages based on past performances, measurements, experience, etc.  Schatz makes that clear.

 

Now about that eye test.  It certainly is useful, but it’s a lot better when it’s unbiased. A big plus of analytics is that it is designed to eliminate emotion and bias.  Allen has  certainly flashed this past season and while that is encouraging, it’s typical for a fan to remember the good plays and forget about the bad ones.  I’d also point to the linked thread above and see what people here were saying about Allen and the other QBs before the draft.

 

Another thing that can happen is that some of the issues players have can be corrected.  Some analytic sites don’t even consider D2 and D3 players because the level of competition skews things so much. Furthermore the coaching is often inferior to D1 programs so there can be more progress for players IF they are developed properly.  One good thing about Allen is that some of the things that a QB can’t change aren’t his problem - size, arm strength, athleticism.  He came from a D2 school (albeit a good one), but there’s a real chance that he can develop more than a typical prospect.  At least that’s possible. 

 

If you can understand why people like Schatz don’t like Allen’s chances in the NFL it’ll actually give you a good idea of where to look for improvement.  Or even look to places their model doesn’t cover.  I really think Allen might be more unique than people think.  His ability to buy time in the pocket to throw (like Roethlisberger) and run for yardage (like few QBs can) might help him overcome some of the issues that get brought up.  Maybe he’s never going to be as accurate as we’d like, but maybe he won’t have to hit tight windows as much if he can consistently buy extra time in the pocket.  Maybe his running ability gets him a lot less man coverage and he doesn’t have to worry about that as much.  There’s a lot of ways things can still work out for him, but he will still need to improve or work around some of the past deficiencies his critics have pointed out.  Let’s hope we get to see him evolve and succeed here.  Nothing is written in stone- and Schatz would tell you that. 

[eball]

The “analytics or bust” guys are going to be lukewarm on Allen until his play forces them to rethink things. Even with his progression through last season they can still point to stats like completion percentage, and even if the Bills win a lot of games behind Allen you know they will come up with reasons beyond his play for that happening. 

 

That’s how it goes in today’s world in which everyone needs to be “right” and only a small few are willing to have reasonable conversations and change their perspectives. 

[JESSEFEFFER]

14 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

For some background on Aaron Schatz’s predraft QB analysis, here is a thread about that from that time.  It uses QBASE 

 

Here is an older article that explains QBASE. TL/DR: It’s a metric that tries to rate QBs and incorporates adjustments for drops, level of competition, etc.  

 

So let us get right to your argument: That the eye test can show things that metrics can’t.  And that Allen is an example of a player who is actually better than the metrics would show. 

 

First, is metrics the whole picture and is it infallible?  Nope and nope.  When stupidly applied, use of metrics can be truly awful.  It’s a very useful tool, however.  When used correctly metrics can certainly help make better decisions and judgements.  The best users know those gaps and account for them.  The worst blindly follow the numbers. 

 

So so what about Allen?  Well, the metrics have never been remotely good for him.  They don’t point to him having any real success in the NFL.  That’s the rub here.  Fans get ticked off because these people - numbers really - are saying Allen will likely bust.  But something gets missed in that umbrage.  These are predictive percentages based on past performances, measurements, experience, etc.  Schatz makes that clear.

 

Now about that eye test.  It certainly is useful, but it’s a lot better when it’s unbiased. A big plus of analytics is that it is designed to eliminate emotion and bias.  Allen has  certainly flashed this past season and while that is encouraging, it’s typical for a fan to remember the good plays and forget about the bad ones.  I’d also point to the linked thread above and see what people here were saying about Allen and the other QBs before the draft.

 

Another thing that can happen is that some of the issues players have can be corrected.  Some analytic sites don’t even consider D2 and D3 players because the level of competition skews things so much. Furthermore the coaching is often inferior to D1 programs so there can be more progress for players IF they are developed properly.  One good thing about Allen is that some of the things that a QB can’t change aren’t his problem - size, arm strength, athleticism.  He came from a D2 school (albeit a good one), but there’s a real chance that he can develop more than a typical prospect.  At least that’s possible. 

 

If you can understand why people like Schatz don’t like Allen’s chances in the NFL it’ll actually give you a good idea of where to look for improvement.  Or even look to places their model doesn’t cover.  I really think Allen might be more unique than people think.  His ability to buy time in the pocket to throw (like Roethlisberger) and run for yardage (like few QBs can) might help him overcome some of the issues that get brought up.  Maybe he’s never going to be as accurate as we’d like, but maybe he won’t have to hit tight windows as much if he can consistently buy extra time in the pocket.  Maybe his running ability gets him a lot less man coverage and he doesn’t have to worry about that as much.  There’s a lot of ways things can still work out for him, but he will still need to improve or work around some of the past deficiencies his critics have pointed out.  Let’s hope we get to see him evolve and succeed here.  Nothing is written in stone- and Schatz would tell you that. 

 

I get why the Wyoming numbers lead to that projection.  It's about the only thing I knew about Josh predraft.  The Bills were going to get a QB and I did not want to have a favorite and then not get him so I didn't follow the predraft process.  I did not even seek the highlight video until after the was the picked. 

 

The real issue I have is to suggest that nothing he did on the field in 2018 alters that projection.  That seems just plain stubborn.  Many anti Allen opinions became "He surprised me and did way more in year 1 than I thought he would.  He has a chance to be a special QB."  There are numbers that support that position and that's why I would have asked Schatz to offer more of the basis for his unchanged opinion.

Edited May 25, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER

[HOUSE]

Why doesn't this guy quit and give some poor kid a job

[Kemp]

Really didn't want Allen, and other than his running ability, he played like I expected he would, which wasn't scintillating.

 

This season will determine if he is on an arc towards a good career or whether he's in over his head. Beane better hope it's the former or he will be on a much shorter leash.

[K-9]

58 minutes ago, eball said:

The “analytics or bust” guys are going to be lukewarm on Allen until his play forces them to rethink things. Even with his progression through last season they can still point to stats like completion percentage, and even if the Bills win a lot of games behind Allen you know they will come up with reasons beyond his play for that happening. 

 

That’s how it goes in today’s world in which everyone needs to be “right” and only a small few are willing to have reasonable conversations and change their perspectives. 

The analytics or bust guys simply never address their always present elephant in the room: their complete inability to quantify those intangible qualities that are just as important to being a successful QB as a completed pass. 

[Gugny]

Singular version of schatz, is schat.  Present tense of schat is ....

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, Kemp said:

Really didn't want Allen, and other than his running ability, he played like I expected he would, which wasn't scintillating.

 

This season will determine if he is on an arc towards a good career or whether he's in over his head. Beane better hope it's the former or he will be on a much shorter leash.

I see NOTHING to indicate he is in over his head

 

I think your way base

[Protocal69]

When you look at Allen from pure passing numbers perspective he sucks. Now what is funny is that Sam Darnold gets all the praise in the world but from a pure passing numbers perspective his overall numbers are only marginally better than Allen. 

 

Sam Darnold was 1-9 in his last 10 games with his only win was against the BILLS where it took a special teams meltdown and 3 dimes from Darnold in the 4th to pull it out. Before the 3 dimes he looked like trash. I actually like Darnold but the gap between him and Allen is far less than what people make it out to be

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

I get why the Wyoming numbers lead to that projection.  It's about the only thing I knew about Josh predraft.  The Bills were going to get a QB and I did not want to have a favorite and then not get him so I didn't follow the predraft process.  I did not even seek the highlight video until after the was the picked. 

 

The real issue I have is to suggest that nothing he did on the field in 2018 alters that projection.  That seems just plain stubborn.  Many anti Allen opinions became "He surprised me and did way more in year 1 than I thought he would.  He has a chance to be a special QB."  There are numbers that support that position and that's why I would have asked Schatz to offer more of the basis for his unchanged opinion.

 

I disagree. Allen certainly didn’t fall in his face last season, but he also has a long way to go.   His running and ability to buy time when the pocket breaks down are definite pluses that few expected.  But there are still questions about whether or not those are sustainable - especially at last season’s rate.  More importantly, Allen had issues with getting the ball out in rhythm and with consistent accuracy.  I watched a highlight video and he did a lot of important things on it, including accurate passes, but he didn’t get the ball out at the end of his drops even once on that video.  The argument here is, of course, that his supporting cast was poor.  It sure was and I didn’t see all 22 film to see if he was missing open receivers.  I don’t know, but last season is done.  He’s got a much better line and much better WRs this year so let’s see what he does with them.  I’m not going to ding Allen when it might not have been his fault, but I’m also not going to blame people who wants to see Allen be effective with those aspects of his game before acknowledging that he can do those things well. 

[Kemp]

Just now, John from Riverside said:

I see NOTHING to indicate he is in over his head

 

I think your way base

 

If you re-read what I wrote I said if he shows no evidence of improvement next season.....

If he plays like he did in his first season, his future is most probably dim. 

[Ol Dirty B]

2 hours ago, NewDayBills said:

Well, forgive me for saying so, but I don't see Allen as a refined passer quite yet. He will likely be a running QB year 2. Look, we've added a bazillion RBs, OL and signed Lee freaking Smith to a big fat porkchop of a contract - we are going to be a running team. Allen is more like Michael Vick than he is Tom Brady, deal with it. I care more about the pattern and trajectory of his development. A pattern of reasonable growth as a passer. This guy is raw.

 

That's actually a fair comparison. The ridiculous arm strength. The places where I think they diverge is size, and while Allen can run I don't think he is as fast as Vick and not as shifty. However, I think that's a good trade off for us.

 

If he can mature and refine himself to what Vick was when he was for those couple years in Philly when he was great I think the upside will he huge.

 

I think anyone having doubts is completely fair. I was not a fan at all of the pick, but he won me over enough to think maybe we could have something here.

 

I know most will hate it, but when they made the pick I was not happy. But he has shown something might be there, however, he hasn't shown he's a lock. 

 

Seems like a good guy, hard worker, hopefully smart. I hope he puts it all together.