Kentucky Derby Predictions?

[Halloween Land]

Racing fans, what's your predictions for tomorrow's big race? I like Game Winner, Maximum Security and Tacitus.

[Chef Jim]

A horse. But in a serious note with the number of horses that have died at the local area track (Santa Anita) the past few months I’m having second thoughts about the sport. It’s crazy what’s been happening there. 

 

http://www.espn.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/26411518/santa-anita-sees-23rd-horse-fatality-dec-26?platform=amp

[Marv's Neighbor]

23 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

A horse. But in a serious note with the number of horses that have died at the local area track (Santa Anita) the past few months I’m having second thoughts about the sport. It’s crazy what’s been happening there. 

 

http://www.espn.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/26411518/santa-anita-sees-23rd-horse-fatality-dec-26?platform=amp

It's been on the cruel side, with respect to the horses, for a very long time.

[Chef Jim]

7 minutes ago, Marv's Neighbor said:

It's been on the cruel side, with respect to the horses, for a very long time.

 

I never looked at it that way. Just took it for granted. The Sport of Kings and all but this has got me thinking. Sorry didn’t mean to hijack the thread. I still think the horses are amazingly beautiful. 

[Kirby Jackson]

I think I’m going to use By My Standards (supposedly has been training like a monster), the Baffert horses because you have to, Tacitus, Maximim Security and Win, Win, Win.

 

Haven’t put it together yet but think that I’m going to try to catch with Tacitus, Win, Win, Win and By My Standards on top. 

[Marv's Neighbor]

38 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

 

I never looked at it that way. Just took it for granted. The Sport of Kings and all but this has got me thinking. Sorry didn’t mean to hijack the thread. I still think the horses are amazingly beautiful. 

No doubt about their beauty but I was always fearful that one would fall, and have to be "destroyed."  Once that sunk in, my interest in the sport, waned.

[Steve O]

Don't really like horse racing, but I have to admit, Seabiscuit and Secretariat are two of my all time favorite movies. 

[plenzmd1]

3 hours ago, Chef Jim said:

A horse. But in a serious note with the number of horses that have died at the local area track (Santa Anita) the past few months I’m having second thoughts about the sport. It’s crazy what’s been happening there. 

 

http://www.espn.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/26411518/santa-anita-sees-23rd-horse-fatality-dec-26?platform=amp

Yea, that has been a strange, strange story out there. I love the ponies, have been betting them since the late 70s with paper route money..never remember seeing anything like what has been happening at Santa Anita. 

 

I know I am an old fugger, but i think one of the contributing factors to more horses breaking down in training, especially in So Cal, is the focus on "speed" in the breeding, and the increased use of drugs across the whole of the sport. 30 years ago, a decent  horse  old might run every other week for most of their 3 and 4-year-old seasons..maybe 12-16 races per year. Prolly put in 8 as a two-year-old. 

 

Now if a horse race once a month it is considered a heavy workload..maybe 5 or 6 races in a year..maybe 2 as a two year old. They are just not as sturdy as they once were.

 

Having said that..I have followed zero prep races this year..numbers it be!!!

[KD in CA]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

Yea, that has been a strange, strange story out there. I love the ponies, have been betting them since the late 70s with paper route money..never remember seeing anything like what has been happening at Santa Anita. 

 

I know I am an old fugger, but i think one of the contributing factors to more horses breaking down in training, especially in So Cal, is the focus on "speed" in the breeding, and the increased use of drugs across the whole of the sport. 30 years ago, a decent  horse  old might run every other week for most of their 3 and 4-year-old seasons..maybe 12-16 races per year. Prolly put in 8 as a two-year-old. 

 

Now if a horse race once a month it is considered a heavy workload..maybe 5 or 6 races in a year..maybe 2 as a two year old. They are just not as sturdy as they once were.

 

Having said that..I have followed zero prep races this year..numbers it be!!!

 

And they always bring in a reliever by the sixth furlong now....

[RaoulDuke79]

I like Tacitus. Heading to the otb today agr work and again tomorrow with my mom.

5 hours ago, Chef Jim said:

A horse. But in a serious note with the number of horses that have died at the local area track (Santa Anita) the past few months I’m having second thoughts about the sport. It’s crazy what’s been happening there. 

 

http://www.espn.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/26411518/santa-anita-sees-23rd-horse-fatality-dec-26?platform=amp

Didn't they shut it down for a little while?

[Chef Jim]

4 minutes ago, RaoulDuke79 said:

 

Didn't they shut it down for a little while?

 

They did and I believe they had another death shortly after reopening. I just wonder the number of horses being put down at other tracks that are going unreported because the numbers are “small” compared to Santa Anita. 

[frostbitmic]

7 hours ago, Marv's Neighbor said:

No doubt about their beauty but I was always fearful that one would fall, and have to be "destroyed."  Once that sunk in, my interest in the sport, waned.

The last time I went to the track was the last time.

 

It was at Finger Lakes race track in Farmington (just south of Rochester) not one but two horses were taken down that day, one right in front of the grand stand. Just never felt like going back after that.

[RaoulDuke79]

I got my ass kicked tonight. Didn't hit anything on the Oaks. Down roughly $60.

[njbuff]

Is Seattle Slew running?

[Gugny]

I predict that many of the horses in this race will die at a very young age.

 

https://nypost.com/2019/05/03/kentucky-derby-to-kick-off-under-cloud-of-horse-deaths/

 

This "sport" is akin to dog fighting and #### fighting.  Racing to the death so humans can profit.  

 

Saratoga averages 14 deaths per year.  For what?

 

[RaoulDuke79]

10 minutes ago, Gugny said:

I predict that many of the horses in this race will die at a very young age.

 

https://nypost.com/2019/05/03/kentucky-derby-to-kick-off-under-cloud-of-horse-deaths/

 

This "sport" is akin to dog fighting and #### fighting.  Racing to the death so humans can profit.  

 

Saratoga averages 14 deaths per year.  For what?

 

For $.....and it's a pretty long reach to compare horse racing to putting animals in a cage to fight one another. 

[Gugny]

4 minutes ago, RaoulDuke79 said:

For $.....and it's a pretty long reach to compare horse racing to putting animals in a cage to fight one another. 

 

Not really.  Humans are setting animals up to die for their own monetary gain.  The human demographics may differ, but the end result for the animals is the same.

[4merper4mer]

6 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

Not really.  Humans are setting animals up to die for their own monetary gain.  The human demographics may differ, but the end result for the animals is the same.

And as we all know horses are otherwise immortal so you're definitely correct on this.

 

[plenzmd1]

just gunna put this here and you ake it for what it is worth. One of the best handicappers I have ever know is resident at the OTB I frequent in Richmond, and he was on fire at Gulfstream yesterday. Now he bets way different than me, can't use a lot of he does...but he did put me onto the Oaks Exacta for a cool $950 for $2bet yesterday!!!

 

Now he readily admits the Derby is a crap shoot and anything can happen, but he likes the 3,6,19. 

 

EDIT..he gave me these after the Oaks, and after maybe I had had a few celebratory beverages...have no clue if he handicapped these for a wet track..?

 

and you could not pay me to go close to an OTB today....people think the Bills tailgates are rough..go to an OTB on Derby day and some dolt is trying  to figure out how to make his $2 Win bet on the Derby whilst some regular is steaming behind him as he just missed his $45 exacta that he  was gunna pound for $50!!!

 

That is truly UGLY!!!!

 

Edited May 4, 2019 by plenzmd1

[row_33]

10 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

Not really.  Humans are setting animals up to die for their own monetary gain.  The human demographics may differ, but the end result for the animals is the same.

 

My cats are a drain on my pocketbook, I better stop before she reads this...

 

 

[K-9]

11 hours ago, Gugny said:

I predict that many of the horses in this race will die at a very young age.

 

https://nypost.com/2019/05/03/kentucky-derby-to-kick-off-under-cloud-of-horse-deaths/

 

This "sport" is akin to dog fighting and #### fighting.  Racing to the death so humans can profit.  

 

Saratoga averages 14 deaths per year.  For what?

 

Fancy hats, mint julips, and Wes Welker making it rain. 

[frostbitmic]

2 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Fancy hats, mint julips, and Wes Welker making it rain. 

I'd like to see Wes Welker get run over by a horse.

[RaoulDuke79]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

just gunna put this here and you ake it for what it is worth. One of the best handicappers I have ever know is resident at the OTB I frequent in Richmond, and he was on fire at Gulfstream yesterday. Now he bets way different than me, can't use a lot of he does...but he did put me onto the Oaks Exacta for a cool $950 for $2bet yesterday!!!

 

Now he readily admits the Derby is a crap shoot and anything can happen, but he likes the 3,6,19. 

 

EDIT..he gave me these after the Oaks, and after maybe I had had a few celebratory beverages...have no clue if he handicapped these for a wet track..?

 

and you could not pay me to go close to an OTB today....people think the Bills tailgates are rough..go to an OTB on Derby day and some dolt is trying  to figure out how to make his $2 Win bet on the Derby whilst some regular is steaming behind him as he just missed his $45 exacta that he  was gunna pound for $50!!!

 

That is truly UGLY!!!!

 

My mom and I have been doing derby day at OTB going on 20 years. We got here a little early today, but it's pretty toned down so far. Its raining pretty hard at Churchill right now.

41 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

I'd like to see Wes Welker get run over by a horse.

I'm ok with Welker. Edelman on the other hand I'd pay the jockey to run him over.

[plenzmd1]

2 minutes ago, RaoulDuke79 said:

My mom and I have been doing derby day at OTB going on 20 years. We got here a little early today, but it's pretty toned down so far. Its raining pretty hard at Churchill right now.

man, my OTB was even crazy yesterday for the Oaks

[Nextmanup]

I don't know who is expected to win, but I am looking forward to an annual ritual.

 

I record the TV broadcast and FF until the horses are just about to be loaded into the starting stalls.  

 

Then watch for 2 minutes, then stop watching.

 

You can short circuit hours and hours of garbage broadcasting that way. 

 

I do this for each of the Triple Crown races.  This is the extent of my horse racing viewing for the year.

 

 

[McGee Return TD]

[Tacitus, Win Win Win, By My Standards]

 

Tax is my favorite longshot - might be the fastest horse in the race on dry ground. [Improbable, Tax, Code of Honor] trifecta #2

[frostbitmic]

An uneducated guess

 

Win ... Maximum Security

Place ... Game Winner

Show ... Roadster

[Kirby Jackson]

Jody Demling has hit 9 of the last 10 Oaks-Derby doubles and he is betting War of Will. War of Will won the Risen Star and was the favorite in the Louisiana Derby. He ran a terrible race  but supposedly has trained really well. I didn’t use him much but just ran out and bet another $20 to win on him because of Demling.

 

Here are my bets for anyone that cares:

$20 Win - 1

$7 Win - 3

$2 Place - 3

$2 exacta - 3,5/3,5,6,8,16,19

$1 exacta box - 3,5,8

$1 Tri - 3,5/3,5,8,16,17/3,7,8,16,17

$1 super - 3/5/8/16,17

 

 

Just now realizing that I used the 19 instead of the 17 in the exacta so I will bet another 3,5 w/17.

 

[Mark Vader]

2 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

I don't know who is expected to win, but I am looking forward to an annual ritual.

 

I record the TV broadcast and FF until the horses are just about to be loaded into the starting stalls.  

 

Then watch for 2 minutes, then stop watching.

 

You can short circuit hours and hours of garbage broadcasting that way. 

 

I do this for each of the Triple Crown races.  This is the extent of my horse racing viewing for the year.

 

 

Same here. I always watch the Triple Crown races, but the coverage time is obscene.

 

How I miss the days of when these races were on ABC's Wide World of Sports, and the coverage was just one hour.

[RaoulDuke79]

Heres my final tally:

$2 tri box 3,6,19 courtesy of Plenz

$2 tri box 5,7,15

$2 tri box 5,8,16

$5 ex box 5,15

$5 ex box 5,8

$5 WPS 16

$5 WPS 5

$15 WPS 8

[CommonCents]

3,6,9 trifecta for 50.

 

big on the 3 to win.

 

goodluck fellas.

[RaoulDuke79]

I generally dont expect to win much if anything in the derby. The field is always so crowded. If I do it's a bonus. 

[Augie]

Ummm, what time is......kickoff? 

[Misterbluesky]

3 minutes ago, Augie said:

Ummm, what time is......kickoff? 

6:50

[plenzmd1]

well, just got 4th, 8th and 9th in The Old Forester..thats good, got my bad one out of my system!!!!

[RaoulDuke79]

I have maximum security nowhere. This rain is a real monkey wrench.

[The Senator]

 

I always bet the 4-horse (Gray Magician) and the grey horse (Tacitus).

 

Also have Plus Que Parfait as a long-shot, and Cutting Humor in my bar pool.

 

Hope one of my horses is a mudder.

 

???

.

Edited May 4, 2019 by The Senator

[RaoulDuke79]

A freaking monsoon. 

[Misterbluesky]

2 hours ago, RaoulDuke79 said:

Heres my final tally:

$2 tri box 3,6,19 courtesy of Plenz

$2 tri box 5,7,15

$2 tri box 5,8,16

$5 ex box 5,15

$5 ex box 5,8

$5 WPS 16

$5 WPS 5

$15 WPS 8

Looks like you have every thing covered.?

what's your beer choice tonight..or did you make a pitcher of mint julips?

[RaoulDuke79]

4 minutes ago, Misterbluesky said:

Looks like you have every thing covered.?

what's your beer choice tonight..or did you make a pitcher of mint julips?

I have everything covered aside from the current favorite. Beer is Troegs Perpetual.  Have some garlic parm wings with some additional old bay and minced garlic in the air fryer about to be ready.