All Gunner's draft stuff 2019

[GunnerBill]

I realise this thread is a bit self indulgent but over the last few weeks a lot of members have asked me about various draft bits and pieces so I thought I'd but all my draft stuff in a composite thread with links to the other bits dotted around the board so that it is easy to find.

 

So the products that are already out there are:

 

Evaluations of the top 4 Quarterbacks in the 2019 draft: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/215091-gunners-2019-draft-quarterback-evaluations/

My sleeper picks: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/213128-your-draft-sleeper-pick/?do=findComment&comment=5758478

My mock draft (which will be updated in the final 48 hours before the event): https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/214704-gunners-2019-1st-round-mock-v10/

 

The "new content" in this thread will be:

• a full list of my 20 first round grades;
• an analysis of my top 100 (including comparisons to previous years);
• my positional top 5s.

 

First Round Grades:

1. Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State

2. Ed Oliver, DT, Houston

3. Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama

4. Devin White, LB, LSU

5. Josh Allen, OLB, Kentucky

6. Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi State

7. Rashan Gary, DE, Michigan

8. Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State

9. Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson

10. Greedy Williams, CB, LSU

11. Devin Bush, LB, Michigan

12. Brian Burns, DE, Florida State

13. Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama

14. Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson

15. Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma

16. Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama

17. Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida

18. Byron Murphy, CB, Washington

19. Johnathan Abram, S, Mississippi State

20. Jaylon Ferguson, DE, Louisiana Tech

 

I then also have five borderline 1st/2nd grades: 21. Cody Ford, G, Oklahoma; 22. TJ Hockenson, TE, Iowa; 23. Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson; 24. Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State; 25. Chauncy Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida.

 

Analysis of Top 100:

Here is the positional breakdown of my top 100:-

 

Quarterback: 4

Running Back: 8

Tight End: 7

Wide Receiver: 9

Offensive Tackle: 9

Interior Offensive Line: 9

Total offensive players: 46

 

Interior Defensive Line: 13

Edge Rusher: 16

Linebacker: 5

Corner: 10

Safety: 10

Total defensive players: 54

 

Comparison to other years:

2018:

My 2018 top 100 had 54 offensive players and 46 defensive players. 2018 didn't have any particularly dominant position groups but my top 100 contained 7 Quarterbacks (most years it is 4 or 5) and 12 off the ball linebackers, compared to this year's pitiful 5. If Brandon Beane knew one thing he knew it was a good year to go shopping for QBs and MLBs - both positions are considerably weaker this year once you get past the first couple of guys! I preferred the depth of last year's class of running backs, with 12 featuring in my top 100 compared to this year's 8. However, this year is stronger at tight end. I had 5 tight ends in my top 100 last year - the 5th of whom was selected at pick #101 in the draft by the Carolina Panthers. This year I have 7 in the in the top 100 and another 4 ranked in my top 150. It is a good, deep, group. Where the 2019 class stands out is obviously on the defensive line with edge rushers and interior d-linemen accounting for 29 of my top 100 players. For context in 2018 I only had 18 defensive linemen in the top 100.

 

2017:

While 2019 feels like a top 100 with a defensive bias it is nothing compared to 2017 when the split was 59 defensive players and only 41 offensive players in my top 100. The reason for that was that 2017 contained a really good (maybe even all-time great) class of defensive backs. Marshon Lattimore, Tre White and Jamal Adams might be the headline names who have already established themselves as borderline elite players in the league and as well as the other early picks at those spots my top 100 also included the likes of Desmond King, Marcus Maye, Marcus Williams, Rasul Douglas and Eddie Jackson who were picked in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and in King's case - ridiculously - the 5th round and have shown themselves to be good NFL players. In total in 2017 I had 26 defensive backs in my top 100 players. That is comparable to the 29 defensive linemen in the top 100 this time. I think that demonstrates again how special I think this d-line class is. On the offensive side I was higher on wide receivers in 2017 than this year. That year had two receivers with top 15 grades on my board in Corey Davis and Mike Williams (both of whom took steps forward in 2018 after injury ravaged rookie years) and then similar to this class it had a cluster of guys graded from early 2nd round to mid 4th. From the point our own Zay Jones was selected at #37 there were 17 receivers in the next 100 picks. I think you could see a similar thing this year.

 

Positional Top 5s (where they are graded in brackets - note: that is NOT necessarily where I think they will be picked):

* denotes serious off-field or medical concern

 

Quarterback

1. Kyler Murray, Oklahoma (1st)

2. Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State (1st/2nd)

3. Drew Lock, Missouri (2nd/3rd)

4. Daniel Jones, Duke (3rd/4th)

5. Will Grier, West Virginia (4th)

 

Running Back

1. Miles Sanders, Penn State (2nd)

2. Josh Jacobs, Alabama (2nd)

3. Damien Harris, Alabama (2nd)

4. David Montgomery, Iowa State (3rd)

5. Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M (3rd)

 

Wide Receiver

1. AJ Brown, Mississippi (2nd)

2. DK Metcalf, Mississippi (2nd)

3. N'Keal Harry, Arizona State (2nd)

4. Marquise Brown, Oklahoma (2nd)

5. Preston Williams*, Colorado State (2nd)

 

Tight End

1. TJ Hockenson, Iowa (1st/2nd)

2. Noah Fant, Iowa (2nd)

3. Josh Oliver, San Diego State (2nd)

4. Irv Smith, Alabama (2nd)

5. Jace Sternberger, Texas A&M (3rd)

 

Offensive Tackle

1. Jonah Williams, Alabama (1st)

2. Jawaan Taylor, Florida (1st)

3. Andre Dillard, Washington State (2nd)

4. David Edwards, Wisconsin (2nd)

5. Tytus Howard, Alabama State (2nd)

 

Interior Offensive Line

1. Cody Ford, Oklahoma (1st/2nd)

2. Garrett Bradbury, North Carolina State (2nd)

3. Dalton Risner, Kansas State (2nd)

4. Erik McCoy, Texas A&M (2nd)

5. Chris Lindstrom, Boston College (2nd)

 

Interior Defensive Line

1. Ed Oliver, Houston (1st)

2. Quinnen Williams, Alabama (1st)

3. Jeffery Simmons*, Mississipi State (1st)

4. Christian Wilkins, Clemson (1st)

5. Dexter Lawrence, Clemson (1st/2nd)

 

EDGE

1. Nick Bosa, Ohio State (1st)

2. Josh Allen, Kentucky (1st)

3. Rashan Gary, Michigan (1st)

4. Montez Sweat*, Mississippi State (1st)

5. Clelin Ferrell, Clemson (1st)

 

Linebacker

1. Devin White, LSU (1st)

2. Devin Bush, Michigan (1st)

3. Mack Wilson, Alabama (2nd)

4. Joe Giles-Harris, Duke (4th)

5. Germaine Pratt, North Carolina State (4th)

 

Corner

1. Greedy Williams, LSU (1st)

2. Byron Murphy, Washington (1st)

3. JoeJuan Williams, Vanderbilt (2nd)

4. DeAndre Baker, Georgia (2nd)

5. Trayvon Mullen, Clemson (2nd)

 

Safety

1. Deionte Thompson, Alabama (1st)

2. Johnathan Abram, Mississipi State (1st)

3. Chauncy Gardner-Johnson, Florida (1st/2nd)

4. Taylor Rapp, Washington (2nd)

5. Nasir Adderley, Delaware (2nd)

 

 

Final thoughts....

A couple of people have PM'd me and asked me to send them my breakdowns on specific players - which I will try and get to over the next couple of days. That and updating the mock draft are what is left. Sure plenty of you will disagree with lots of this and thanks for reading!

 

[Jumpsuit Jim]

Thanks. Nice write up. 

 

It’s a deep defensive front draft when a first round (top half of?) guy like Brian Burns doesn’t even make the top 5 at his position. 

[eball]

Gunner, you are a TBD treasure!

[SoCal Deek]

Nice write up Gunner

So...I’m guessing you’re thinking the Bills are set up perfectly to get two or three guys they need and want without all this trade up and down chatter? Looks to me like there’s no way there wouldn’t be a really high quality DL in the first, a high quality TE and/or WR sitting there in the second and third,  and a productive RB sitting there in the third.

The remaining holes to be filled with an occasional draft day steal would be LB and maybe OL or CB.

Done like dinner!

[TAinLack.]

Nice breakdown Gunner, thanks for sharing!!!

[HappyDays]

I'm curious to see your evaluation on Rashan Gary. Everyone here seems to hate him even though he is a consensus top 10 pick.

[JohnC]

Thank you for your work. It's obvious that you put in a lot of time and effort into it. 

 

I'm hoping that Ed Oliver, if available,  turns out to be our first pick. I find that the second and third round picks are going to be more intriguing than the first selection. Our offseason free agent activity allowed the Bills to enter the draft with a lot of flexibility and options.  

[JohnC]

35 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I'm curious to see your evaluation on Rashan Gary. Everyone here seems to hate him even though he is a consensus top 10 pick.

Gary is an impressive physical talent. When he turns it on his sparkling talent is evident. However, his fellow lineman, Chase Winovich, gave more consistent effort. Winovich is a McDermott type of guy. I wouldn't mind seeing him taken in the second or third round if he was still on the board. 

[Bob in STL]

Lots of hard work. Thanks for sharing. 

 

Everything I’ve read shows a few WR’s going in round 1. Also it looks like this is weak LB draft by your account.  

[Stank_Nasty]

@GunnerBill. Would Simmons be higher without the injury or is this already strictly off film alone? 

 

That being said, you can’t take a guy at 9 that might redshirt, right? Or can you? He just really interests me. Could they potentially trade back, Pick up Simmons(elite talent) in the 15-20 range, and nab an extra 2nd out of it to make up for him most liking being a PUP sort of guy until late season? .... is it likely he slips all the way into the 2nd? I would assume by the late first a team with an established roster is gonna see you only one elite guy(Simmons) left and easily pull the trigger. 

 

Im just firing spit balls here. But that scenario is interesting to me..... although I doubt it would be popular amongst the majority. 

Edited April 21, 2019 by Stank_Nasty

[WideNine]

Nice Gunner.

 

To add to all the other requests you are fielding, what are your thoughts (rating) on Wisconsin's Dieter? Needs some work on his game, but was able to play all three positions on that Badger o-line.

[Jay_Fixit]

You’re right, self indulgent.

[Kirby Jackson]

@GunnerBill curious to hear your thoughts on Dawson Knox? He feels like a late riser and a guy that could end up on the Bills in the 3rd.

Edited April 21, 2019 by Kirby Jackson

[Augie]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

I'm curious to see your evaluation on Rashan Gary. Everyone here seems to hate him even though he is a consensus top 10 pick.

 

Yeah, I’m very curious about him too. I really don’t know what to think. I tend to want to shy away.....and even I don’t know why! I guess I’d expect more production, but someone (Yolo?) indicated it was partly in how he was used.

Edited April 21, 2019 by Augie

[buffaloboyinATL]

38 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

@GunnerBill. Would Simmons be higher without the injury or is this already strictly off film alone? 

 

That being said, you can’t take a guy at 9 that might redshirt, right? Or can you? He just really interests me. Could they potentially trade back, Pick up Simmons(elite talent) in the 15-20 range, and nab an extra 2nd out of it to make up for him most liking being a PUP sort of guy until late season? .... is it likely he slips all the way into the 2nd? I would assume by the late first a team with an established roster is gonna see you only one elite guy(Simmons) left and easily pull the trigger. 

 

Im just firing spit balls here. But that scenario is interesting to me..... although I doubt it would be popular amongst the majority. 

I have heard “experts” say Simmons  is a top 5 talent without the injury and personal issues prior to college. Someone will take the risk and be rewarded after he “red-shirts” this year.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

....nicely done GB....the Howard kid has been getting some positive press notice of late.......

[GG]

Great stuff indeed.   Much appreciated. 

 

Wonder why you have Hock rated lower than the recent top 5 grade by many draftnicks.  Not that I disagree.  

[Reed83HOF]

Again, awesome work Gunner

[NewEra]

Thanks for taking the time to it this together. 

 

Random thought:  I’m surprised there are 4 QBs and 8 RBs n the top 100.  I figured 3 and 5ish

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

@GunnerBill. Would Simmons be higher without the injury or is this already strictly off film alone? 

 

That being said, you can’t take a guy at 9 that might redshirt, right? Or can you? He just really interests me. Could they potentially trade back, Pick up Simmons(elite talent) in the 15-20 range, and nab an extra 2nd out of it to make up for him most liking being a PUP sort of guy until late season? .... is it likely he slips all the way into the 2nd? I would assume by the late first a team with an established roster is gonna see you only one elite guy(Simmons) left and easily pull the trigger. 

 

Im just firing spit balls here. But that scenario is interesting to me..... although I doubt it would be popular amongst the majority. 

I don’t see it from this FO.  They are under considerable pressure to win now, although many here don’t believe that.

[Stank_Nasty]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

I don’t see it from this FO.  They are under considerable pressure to win now, although many here don’t believe that.

i would agree with that and I think the big move for solid role playing vets that can fill holes NOW in FA tips a hat towards that... I think he'll go to a team picking late, with an established roster and by 2020 it'll be absolute ROBBERY.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

@GunnerBill curious to hear your thoughts on Dawson Knox? He feels like a late riser and a guy that could end up on the Bills in the 3rd.

 

He is in my top 100. My TE7 and a mid 3rd grade. I see him and Warring as the two relatively unexposed talents with decent ceilings. 

2 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

@GunnerBill. Would Simmons be higher without the injury or is this already strictly off film alone? 

 

That being said, you can’t take a guy at 9 that might redshirt, right? Or can you? He just really interests me. Could they potentially trade back, Pick up Simmons(elite talent) in the 15-20 range, and nab an extra 2nd out of it to make up for him most liking being a PUP sort of guy until late season? .... is it likely he slips all the way into the 2nd? I would assume by the late first a team with an established roster is gonna see you only one elite guy(Simmons) left and easily pull the trigger. 

 

Im just firing spit balls here. But that scenario is interesting to me..... although I doubt it would be popular amongst the majority. 

 

That is off his tape. I haven't dropped him for injury. I think they could redshirt him.... whether they will I am less sure. 

[GunnerBill]

43 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Thanks for taking the time to it this together. 

 

Random thought:  I’m surprised there are 4 QBs and 8 RBs n the top 100.  I figured 3 and 5ish

 

So Jones is in the 90s... and a couple of the running backs are too. I am surprised I ended up with 8 backs too. I didn't think I had been that kind on the running back class but when I totted it up 8 there are. 

2 hours ago, WideNine said:

Nice Gunner.

 

To add to all the other requests you are fielding, what are your thoughts (rating) on Wisconsin's Dieter? Needs some work on his game, but was able to play all three positions on that Badger o-line.

 

Not got my board in front of me now.... but I think I have a 3rd on him. I see him as an interior guy at the NFL level.

[billspro]

This is a fantastic post and obviously well thought out. I do think your way off on DK Metcalf. Did you drop him due to injury or other concerns?

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, billspro said:

This is a fantastic post and obviously well thought out. I do think your way off on DK Metcalf. Did you drop him due to injury or other concerns?

I like DK but he is one of the most polarizing players in this draft. Some people will love him and others will worry about his short area quickness, injury and production. I’m fine with him at 9 but a lot of people won’t be. Give me talent though

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, billspro said:

This is a fantastic post and obviously well thought out. I do think your way off on DK Metcalf. Did you drop him due to injury or other concerns?

 

Injury. Production. Inconsistent effort. Lacks elite change of direction. 

 

I do think his ceiling is very high but to me there are a just too many question marks for me to feel that he is a top 10 player. Back half of the first round I'd be happy to take him.

[mannc]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Injury. Production. Inconsistent effort. Lacks elite change of direction. 

 

I do think his ceiling is very high but to me there are a just too many question marks for me to feel that he is a top 10 player. Back half of the first round I'd be happy to take him.

What’s keeping Hollywood Brown out of your first round?  Size?  I think he will be taken higher than most expect.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Injury. Production. Inconsistent effort. Lacks elite change of direction. 

 

I do think his ceiling is very high but to me there are a just too many question marks for me to feel that he is a top 10 player. Back half of the first round I'd be happy to take him.

 

....is DelRio (FWIW) accurate in assessing him as one whose physique & combine overshadow his ability as a top flight WR?...........

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, mannc said:

What’s keeping Hollywood Brown out of your first round?  Size?  I think he will be taken higher than most expect.

 

Size, limited route tree, only average in contested catch scenarios. Think he could track the deep ball better as well.... in the NFL if you give prime position when tracking the ball up to a defensive back then you are not getting it back. 

 

I do like him. Think he could go in the 1st (all of those top 4 receivers on my board I'd consider from sort of 16 or 17 onwards). I just don't see any of them at this point as a true #1. I think DK has that ceiling but a lot of flags - Hollywood, AJ and Harry to me are really good #2s. 

[Formerly Allan in MD]

That's all ya got? ?

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Size, limited route tree, only average in contested catch scenarios. Think he could track the deep ball better as well.... in the NFL if you give prime position when tracking the ball up to a defensive back then you are not getting it back. 

 

I do like him. Think he could go in the 1st (all of those top 4 receivers on my board I'd consider from sort of 16 or 17 onwards). I just don't see any of them at this point as a true #1. I think DK has that ceiling but a lot of flags - Hollywood, AJ and Harry to me are really good #2s. 

...so if WR was McBeane's 1st round pick GB, who and where?...stay pat at 9 or move down, hoping for the extra 2nd?....thanks bud.........

[Gugny]

39 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Size, limited route tree, only average in contested catch scenarios. Think he could track the deep ball better as well.... in the NFL if you give prime position when tracking the ball up to a defensive back then you are not getting it back. 

 

I do like him. Think he could go in the 1st (all of those top 4 receivers on my board I'd consider from sort of 16 or 17 onwards). I just don't see any of them at this point as a true #1. I think DK has that ceiling but a lot of flags - Hollywood, AJ and Harry to me are really good #2s. 

 

In 5 years, which of your four QB do you think will still be starting?  I'm going with Lock.

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

In 5 years, which of your four QB do you think will still be starting?  I'm going with Lock.

 

I think Lock could last 5 years in the way Blake Bortles lasted 5 years. I think Daniel Jones could last in the way Josh McCown lasted. 

 

I have to go Murray as I think he is the most talented. But I do understand your reservations. 

40 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...so if WR was McBeane's 1st round pick GB, who and where?...stay pat at 9 or move down, hoping for the extra 2nd?....thanks bud.........

 

If he is determined to take a wide receiver trade back. I don't have big separation between my top 4 so any of them would be acceptable. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Lock could last 5 years in the way Blake Bortles lasted 5 years. I think Daniel Jones could last in the way Josh McCown lasted. 

 

I have to go Murray as I think he is the most talented. But I do understand your reservations. 

 

 

...sorry indictment of the desperate situation of the NFL QB position....lasting out of desperation or one helluva set of blackmail pics....pretty sad....