If you had Metcalf/Fant/Hockenson/Jacobs vs the field as our 1st pick, which would you pick?

[LABILLBACKER]

On 4/5/2019 at 9:47 PM, Just Joshin' said:

It seems like it is one vs the field as TJ is the only one with a shot at 9.

 

If all the DL studs are off the board, would not be disappointed with the best TE.

Exactly,  why are we including Fant or Jacob's?  Dumb

[transplantbillsfan]

13 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Exactly,  why are we including Fant or Jacob's?  Dumb

 

Because we're in need of TE and RB and there's the very real possibility we trade down.

 

Simple.

Edited April 7, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[MJS]

20 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

A RB elephant in the form of a HOFer walked into the room already. The team is better at RB today than when they left the field after the 2nd Dolphin game. Bills have virtually never given a ratsazz about TE. Heck, they played Kyle Williams there last season (ba dum bum). The DEs OP mentions are on their last contract year. That’s where we go. aka The Field.

And that goes for EVERY team in the league. TE is the lowest paid position in the NFL besides punters/kickers. They simply do not get you the impact that other skill positions get you. WR and RB will always be more important. Having a great TE is a luxury, not a necessity. And teams that have the great TE's don't usually spend super high draft picks on them, they just luck out with a lesser pick.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Sure as hell wont be Jacobs. Could be the TEs but i doubt it.

 

 

[Estro]

If this was an actual bet you could put money down on you'd have to make the field at least -350 in order to get equal money on each side of the bet.  So betting the field as an EVEN money bet would be an absolute no brainer.

 

I'd actually bet -350 on the field

[BuffaloBillyG]

8 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Exactly,  why are we including Fant or Jacob's?  Dumb

I think discounting Jacobs is a mistake. There are a ton of factors that may suggest he's higher on the Bills board than many fans individual boards. While I personally don't believe he's the pick if we stay at 9, I believe he's firmly in the conversation in a yrade back situation. 

 

-Very versitle. Can catch, block and run. 

-Since coming to Buffalo the "power back" has been a priority each off season (Tolbert, Ivory and now Gore).

-Daboll is very familiar with him and was able to scheme a lot of plays for him. 

-Murphy and Ford combined for almost 90 offensive touches last year. With Gore and McCoy being older and missing games last year theres a high possibility we need a guy to handle touches this year.

-Don't forget, Beane was part of the FO that grabbed McCaffery high. Tells me how he values RB.

 

All of that is of course speculation on my part, but I believe it at the very least makes it a strong fit and strong possibility.

[unbillievable]

What is "the field"?

[LABILLBACKER]

12 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Because we're in need of TE and RB and there's the very real possibility we trade down.

 

Simple.

 Nowhere in the title does it talk about trading down?

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

 Nowhere in the title does it talk about trading down?

 

Nowhere in the title does it exclude trading down or specify “with the 9th pick” either, does it?

[/dev/null]

The Bills are just as likely to draft Sally Field as Fant/Hock/Jacobs

 

 

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

Tight end is a 3rd or 4th round pick this year.  A nice thing about TE is that you can shuffle in different one-dimensional players to create mismatches FASTER than the defense can substitute and change defensive formation.   A slow, blocking TE still has to be covered by the defense and if he is ignored  even the slow guys can run 40 yards in less than 5 seconds.  Safeties do the 40 about a half second slower.   If you estimate the separation, it is about 8-9 yards. So if you are lined up on the other teams "40" and give a slow TE a 9 yard head start or uncovered that much, he will beat a safety to the end zone.

 

My point is that you can get almost the same mileage from 2 tight ends with different performance envelopes as you can from somebody drafted in the first round.  Generational talents are different, but the cost to the rest of the team's positions is too high to be doing a crapshoot for a position where they block most of the time.

 

 

(see https://www.nj.com/eagles/2019/03/nfl-combine-2019-results-tight-end-40-yard-dash-times-including-noah-fant-irv-smith-caleb-wilson-more.html )   https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2019-nfl-combine-top-40-yard-dash-times-at-each-position-as-unheralded-safety-posts-fastest-run-at-indy/

[IgotBILLStopay]

AT #9, it is overwhelmingly the field. If we trade down, H/F/J will give better odds.

[Cripple Creek]

On 4/6/2019 at 2:20 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I'll explain why.

 

Tight End is by far the weakest and thinnest position on our team right now.

 

If you listened to McDermott speak at the owners meeting and were paying attention, you'd realize that despite the fact that the Buffalo Bills have never really valued the Tight End position, McDermott does. He established talked glowingly about Gronk, Greg Olsen, and some guy that was in Philadelphia I don't remember. He talked about the importance of a Tight End for a young QB.

 

We have a young QB.

 

We have 3 Tight Ends on our roster right now with less than 90 career NFL catches between them... and one of those guys is going to be brand new to the position.

 

Hockenson has been pretty consistently ranked and mocked as high as 6 and no lower than in the 20s, so the theory that Beane will draft BPA could still put Hockenson (or Jacobs, who's also been in that same range) in a Bills uniform next year.

 

Trading down is always an option, and I just said "1st pick" in the OP, not "at 9," which is part of the reason I put Fant there because I could see us trading back for our 1st pick and then trading back into the 1st round with all those picks we've acquired to get an edge rusher/DL in a very defense-heavy draft.

 

Still shocked?

 

Now think about the impact Tight Ends have had on the game over the last decade or so and the front row seat the Bills have had to witness, but not be a part of that impact.

"The field" includes everyone.  There are some top notch defenders projected to go at the top of the first round and your poll makes them all available to the Bills. 

[mead107]

Fergy, you going to make it? 

[buffaloboyinATL]

On 4/6/2019 at 3:37 AM, GunnerBill said:

The field. I don't have a 1st on Jacobs. He isn't even my RB1. 

I would be so disappointed if we took him at #9

[transplantbillsfan]

Added Metcalf to the poll, which was just 13.22% without him. I'm curious what he adds to that number.

 

He's another offensive weapon, though, and that's where I think we go.

 

And as a guy who just doesn't follow college football, I didn't know the physical freak he really is! 

[LABILLBACKER]

Its going to be Oliver and if he's gone than Hock. No one else. The odds of us drafting one of these 2 is probably 90%.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Added Metcalf to the poll, which was just 13.22% without him. I'm curious what he adds to that number.

 

He's another offensive weapon, though, and that's where I think we go.

 

And as a guy who just doesn't follow college football, I didn't know the physical freak he really is! 

 

Changed my vote for Metcalf

[transplantbillsfan]

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2019/4/9/18301463/2019-nfl-mock-draft-t-j-hockenson-buffalo-bills-josh-allen-dk-metcalf

9. Buffalo Bills: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa

Warren: The Buffalo Bills have several holes on their roster, but none more glaring than at tight end. Head coach Sean McDermott has frequently mentioned it in interviews this offseason. After Buffalo signed six offensive linemen and three wide receivers in free agency, they need a dynamic and complete player at tight end to help quarterback Josh Allen develop.

While we considered Jawaan Taylor with this selection, taking a right tackle over a multi-dimensional player was ultimately too much for us when adequate right tackles will be available later. Ole Miss wide receiver D.K. Metcalf was also on our short list, but Hockenson’s blocking ability made him the pick over the receiver.

Analysis: A scroll is needed to keep track of all the free agency moves the Bills have made this offseason. In addition to those six offensive linemen and three receivers, don’t forget the Bills added serviceable, and immortal, running back Frank Gore and tight end Tyler Kroft.

As much as the Bills have done, you do have to wonder what they think of Metcalf. While they did sign three receivers — Cole Beasley, John Brown, and Andre Roberts — they’re all smaller receivers or play in the slot. Metcalf is a big outside target who excels on the type of deep routes that Allen specializes in throwing. Metcalf should still be in play for the Bills.

None of that is to say that Hockenson is a bad pick, though. He can help the run game with his blocking and is a very good receiver at tight end. If the Bills want a player who can work the underneath game while players like Brown and Roberts get deep, Hockenson is an excellent choice.

 

http://thehuddle.com/2019/04/08/2019-nfl-mock-draft/

2019 NFL mock draft: Round 1

9) Buffalo Bills | TE T.J. Hockenson, Iowa

There is a ton of talent within the front seven of this defense, and adding another freak, like Rashan Gary, is absolutely in play. So is being a trading partner with Miami or Washington, if either team is looking to leapfrog Denver for a quarterback. The Bills could use a cornerback, and while Montez Sweat will be tough to ignore, adding another weapon for Josh Allen is a priority. Hockenson profiles as an elite tight end and helps round out a decent but not special offseason of additions to the passing game (John Brown, Tyler Kroft, Cole Beasley).

 

https://football.realgm.com/analysis/3145/The-2019-What-Jeff-Risdon-Would-Do-NFL-Mock-Draft

RealGM Analysis

The 2019 What Jeff Risdon Would Do NFL Mock Draft

BY JEFF RISDON

9. Buffalo Bills: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa. In building an offense around Josh Allen at QB, the Bills need to upgrade the reliability of weaponry and add versatility at tight end. Hockenson is a very good blocker with great hands and upside as a receiver at all levels of the field. This is higher than I prefer to take a TE but he’s the best fit for what they need to make it work with Allen’s particular set of skills.

 

https://fansided.com/2019/04/08/buffalo-bills-dk-metcalf-draft-rumors/

Bills may be zeroing in on D.K. Metcalf at No. 9

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001025021/article/charles-davis-2019-nfl-mock-draft-20-bengals-broncos-go-qb

Charles Davis 2019 NFL mock draft 2.0: Bengals, Broncos go QB

PICK

9

Noah Fant - TE

 

 

School: Iowa | Year: Junior 

The Bills could easily go with an offensive lineman here, and it would make sense, even though they did spend some capital in that area in free agency. However, a young, developing QB likeJosh Allen needs a TE who can become his go-to guy. I think Fant is the best TE in this draft.

 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

At 9 they are taking DL. Trade down and they take TE or OT

[WMDman]

The field

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

At 9 they are taking DL. Trade down and they take TE or OT

 

Reasonable.

 

I think Beane would love to trade back for Hockenson and then use the 10+ picks he'd have at his disposal at that point to trade back into the 1st for DL.

[LSHMEAB]

17 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Added Metcalf to the poll, which was just 13.22% without him. I'm curious what he adds to that number.

 

He's another offensive weapon, though, and that's where I think we go.

 

And as a guy who just doesn't follow college football, I didn't know the physical freak he really is! 

If you give me 3 to 1 and include Metcalf, I'd consider it. 1/1 and it's still the field all day. I would be shocked if it were Fant/Hock/or Jacobs at NINE. Would not be surprised if Metcalf were the pick, but I also think there's a decent chance he goes top 8. Maybe better than decent. Teams fall in love with measureables.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

On ‎4‎/‎6‎/‎2019 at 5:11 AM, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

I could be wrong, but I get the sense TE have one of the highest bust rates. 

 

I just hate the idea of using a first round pick on a guy that would be the worst blocker on the line and one of the worst WRs on the team.  I mean, a good year for a tight end is 600+ yards.  That is like a bad WR2, average WR3.  

 

Why use a first round pick for that production? 

I don't think you are analyzing this correctly.  It's about matchups.

A TE is not asked to block a NT, DT or even a 3-4 DE.  By definition he is blocking an OLB, SS, or at worst a 4-3 DE.  A quality TE will be taller and at least as big and often bigger then the player he is assigned to block.  Still yet, rarely is the TE blocking solo, it is usually a combination block with the OT or a pulling guard.  

With regard to TE in the pass game, it would be great if the TE was so good that an opposing defense played a top CB against him.  That would mean he is an elite pass catcher.  However even the best tightends  rarely draw coverage from any other positions than slot DB's, safeties and linebackers.  That sets up mismatches all over the field.  A third WR is not a mismatch against most nickel DBs.  A great TE is a huge mismatch against a TE, a nickel DB, or a safety based on speed or size or both.

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Reasonable.

 

I think Beane would love to trade back for Hockenson and then use the 10+ picks he'd have at his disposal at that point to trade back into the 1st for DL.

I don't know.  I fear McBeane is a fall in love with one guy GM/HC tandem and will waste picks to get a certain player.  Zay, Dawkins, Allen, Edmunds are 4 players chosen requiring 7 picks and two players to draft them.  That is what they collectively have done two years in a row.  Maybe that will change this year.  

As for trading back up in the first, the 10 picks are mostly useless in that regard.  In you scenario they would trade back a few spots and at best get a second round pick.  Well to get back into the first they would either need to give up a #1 next year (not going to happen) or probably give up both number 2's.  In that scenario all you did was move up from early in the second round to late in the first.  All that gets you is a more expensive rookie that is no more likely to pan out.  

This is the year to trade back and get more picks.  There is depth at DL, Edge, TE, and WR.  All positions of need.  OT class is not great.  

The play is trade down a few spots, still get a great pick, and add an additional day 2 pick.  Then package some of the day 3 picks for higher day 3 picks or better yet higher 2020 picks.  Also it would be fine to take a few fliers late in the draft, basketball guy that played TE at a high level in HS, a KR ( Ray Ray is awful), a punter (ours are awful), and a PK (Hausch was average last year and has been up and down his whole career).

[transplantbillsfan]

So I don't know who subscribes to The Athletic, but I stumbled onto this massive draft guide by Dane Brugler he calls "The Beast" because he takes 10 months to put it together after starting in June.

 

He actually ranks the prospects and has pretty detailed descriptions about each one. Here's what he said about Hockenson (and notice where he ranks him):

 

1. T.J. HOCKENSON | Iowa 6046 | 251 lbs. | rSO. Chariton, Iowa (Chariton) 7/3/1997 (age 21.82) #38

BACKGROUND: A three-star tight end recruit out of high school, T.J. Hockenson was a four-year starter at Chariton as a tight end and safety. He was used as more of a wideout than traditional tight end in high school and the offense was centered around his receiving skills, finishing his career with a school-record 238 catches for 
3,560 yards and 49 touchdowns. As a senior, Hockenson posted 85 receptions for 1,219 yards and 17 touchdowns, adding 39 tackles and two interceptions on defense to earn First Team All-State honors for the third straight year. He was also a standout basketball player, scoring 1,890 career points and earning Second Team 
All-State honors twice. Coming from a smaller school, Hockenson wasn’t considered a top-50 tight end recruit, but in-state programs like Iowa State and Northern Iowa offered him quickly. However, once Iowa (his favorite team growing up) offered him prior to his senior year, he became a Hawkeye. After his prolific 2018 
season, Hockenson elected to leave school early and enter the 2019 NFL Draft.

YEAR (GP/GS) REC YDS AVG TD NOTES
2016: Redshirted
2017: (13/12) 24 320 13.3 3
2018: (13/13) 49 760 15.5 6 Second Team All-American; John Mackey Award; Kwalick-Clark Big Ten TE of the Year; First Team All-Big Ten
Total: (26/25) 73 1,080 14.8 9
HT WT ARM HAND WING 40-YD 20-YD 10-YD VJ BJ SS 3C BP
COMBINE 6046 251 32 1/4 09 1/2 77 7/8 4.70 2.75 1.63 37 1/2 10’03” 4.18 7.02 17
PRO DAY N/A (stood on Combine numbers; positional drills only)

STRENGTHS: Above-average athleticism…natural pass-catching abilities with his body control, reflexes and hand-eye coordination…reliable hands…clean releases off the line of scrimmage…sticks his foot in the ground and accelerates off his plant to press defenders off the route…finds the sticks and achieves proper depth in his patterns…legitimate downfield threat (averaged 11.5 yards per target in 2018)…ambitious after the catch, flashing tackle-breaking skills (seven catches of 30-plus yards in 2018)…outstanding finisher as a blocker…latches, runs his feet and drives his target off the screen…competitive appetite and wired right for the pro game…productive and durable career in Iowa City.

WEAKNESSES: Doesn’t have ideal size and bulk for the position…overeager at times as a blocker and can get tossed when he arrives off-balance…bad habit of ducking his head into initial contact…tends to rush his routes at times and needs to better set up sitting defenders.

SUMMARY: A two-year starter at Iowa, Hockenson paired with Noah Fant to form the best tight end duo in college football, lining up inline and slot in the Hawkeyes’ pro-style scheme. He became the second tight end in school history with 750-plus receiving yards in a season and joined Dallas Clark as the only Hawkeyes to win the Mackey Award as the nation’s top tight end. Despite not blocking in high school, Hockenson has developed into an elite blocker with the functional strength and competitive spirit to physically overwhelm defenders at the point of attack. Although he would benefit from added nuance as a route runner, his basketball background is obvious with the agility and catch radius to be an impact weapon downfield. Overall, Hockenson has a complete skill set for the position with 
outstanding athleticism, pass-catching traits and blocking skills, projecting as an immediate NFL starter with Pro Bowl potential.

GRADE: 1st Round (#6 overall)

[BillsfaninSB]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

So I don't know who subscribes to The Athletic, but I stumbled onto this massive draft guide by Dane Brugler he calls "The Beast" because he takes 10 months to put it together after starting in June.

 

He actually ranks the prospects and has pretty detailed descriptions about each one. Here's what he said about Hockenson (and notice where he ranks him).

GRADE: 1st Round (#6 overall)

 

Those who think we could trade back several spots and land Hock are crazy.  He might not even be there at 9. 

[CSBill]

On 4/6/2019 at 7:19 AM, formerlyofCtown said:

Should have addressed it in FA.?

 

Didn't they?

2 hours ago, BillsfaninSB said:

 

Those who think we could trade back several spots and land Hock are crazy.  He might not even be there at 9. 

 

Agreed, if he is available at 9, draft him!

[formerlyofCtown]

6 hours ago, CSBill said:

 

Didn't they?

 

Agreed, if he is available at 9, draft him!

Its called sarcasm.

[transplantbillsfan]

Jeremiah had us with Fant before.... now...

 

9

T.J. Hockenson - TE

 

School: Iowa | Year: Sophomore (RS) 

Hockenson would quickly emerge as the best friend of Josh Allen and LeSean McCoy. He helps in both the passing and running game.

[Bangarang]

9 hours ago, BillsfaninSB said:

 

Those who think we could trade back several spots and land Hock are crazy.  He might not even be there at 9. 

 

I’d say the idea of him going before 9 is even more crazy

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Bangarang said:

 

I’d say the idea of him going before 9 is even more crazy

 

Do you feel that way because of the historic value of the Tight End position in the draft or because of Hockenson specifically?

[Bangarang]

17 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Do you feel that way because of the historic value of the Tight End position in the draft or because of Hockenson specifically?

 

Both. I think Hockenson is a nice player. I don’t think he’s game changing nice and that’s what I’m looking for with a top 10 pick. If we traded back and got him then I wouldn’t have an issue.

 

If I’m taking a TE in the top 10 then I want one that will take over games catching the ball. It seems like the first thing people like to talk about when it comes to him is his blocking ability. 

[Bray Wyatt]

53 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Both. I think Hockenson is a nice player. I don’t think he’s game changing nice and that’s what I’m looking for with a top 10 pick. If we traded back and got him then I wouldn’t have an issue.

 

If I’m taking a TE in the top 10 then I want one that will take over games catching the ball. It seems like the first thing people like to talk about when it comes to him is his blocking ability. 

 

Agree 100%

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Bangarang said:

 

Both. I think Hockenson is a nice player. I don’t think he’s game changing nice and that’s what I’m looking for with a top 10 pick. If we traded back and got him then I wouldn’t have an issue.

 

If I’m taking a TE in the top 10 then I want one that will take over games catching the ball. It seems like the first thing people like to talk about when it comes to him is his blocking ability. 

 

To quote Beane from his Presser just the other day

 

"Well, Tight End is kind of a 3 part player, what does he bring as a run blocker, what does he do as a pass blocker, and then what does he do in the passing game, and so as we go through these Tight Ends, those are the areas we focus on."

[Bangarang]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

To quote Beane from his Presser just the other day

 

"Well, Tight End is kind of a 3 part player, what does he bring as a run blocker, what does he do as a pass blocker, and then what does he do in the passing game, and so as we go through these Tight Ends, those are the areas we focus on."

 

What should I do with this information?

[transplantbillsfan]

27 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

What should I do with this information?

 

Nothing if you don't want to.

[Bangarang]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Nothing if you don't want to.

 

I’m just confused as to what you are inferring from that quote. I’m sure every GM and scout looks at TEs in the same way. 

[transplantbillsfan]

34 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

I’m just confused as to what you are inferring from that quote. I’m sure every GM and scout looks at TEs in the same way. 

 

You said it seems the first thing people talk about with Hockenson is his blocking ability.

 

The first thing--actually the first 2 things--Beane talked about when talking Tight Ends in general was blocking ability.

 

Like I said, take nothing from that if you don't want to. Might be pure coincidence.

 

As for his pass-catching, from the little I've seen (because I don't give a crap about College Football til the NFL offseason), he seems like a fairly sure-handed hands-catcher.

 

In terms of so many things, he resembles Gronk and Kelce. Would you take a Gronk or Kelce with the 9th overall pick?

Edited April 17, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[Bangarang]

13 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

You said it seems the first thing people talk about with Hockenson is his blocking ability.

 

The first thing--actually the first 2 things--Beane talked about when talking Tight Ends in general was blocking ability.

 

Like I said, take nothing from that if you don't want to. Might be pure coincidence.

 

As for his pass-catching, from the little I've seen (because I don't give a crap about College Football til the NFL offseason), he seems like a fairly sure-handed hands-catcher.

 

In terms of so many things, he resembles Gronk and Kelce. Would you take a Gronk or Kelce with the 9th overall pick?

 

Hockenson is a popular prediction for us so when BB talks about TEs who can block I can see why it would be easy to connect those dots.

 

I try not to play the hypothetical game. Obviously you’d be crazy to pass on a game changing TE like that at 9. Unfortunately nobody can guarantee that’s how his career turns out.